Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.
Possible. But take your light bulb example for a minute, and consider the following:
1) Instead of new light bulbs being
MORE EXPENSIVE....what happens if in 3 years they were
LESS EXPENSIVE TO BUY? It is expected....based on the CURRENT DOWNWARD COST CURVE that has been in play for the last 5 years or so.....that you can buy a $20,000 EV car in the year 2022. A new EV in 2022 will be LESS than a new ICE in the same "low end" category.
2) What if....instead of just having a couple of designs you don't like....there are
MANY DESIGNS, some of which you do like...especially if they are less expensive to buy? There are many, many more designs coming. And car makers will have MORE flexibility in design, because you don't need that "tunnel" running up the middle of your car.
Now...regarding cars you have 3 additional things you
DON'T have in light bulbs:
(A) there is a cost of maintenance in cars....you have to "fix them" and maintain them from time-to-time. Light bulbs....you only have to replace...and the if the cost of replacing is LESS EXPENSIVE for new tech bulbs, you are more likely to use those. The cost of maintaining an EV is 5 to 10 TIMES less expensive than an ICE car.
(B) the cost of manufacturing is far less. The large manufacturing companies will only produce them IF there are enough buyers. As I stated before....you will likely have "niche manufacturers" of small numbers of ICE cars (for as long as they are allowed)....but not MAJOR manufacturers. They have to have enough cars....otherwise it is too expensive.
(C) the cost of RUNNING an EV is significantly less than an ICE car. And those dollars are MUCH bigger than the savings of new bulbs vs old bulbs. And people "feel that" every time they either "fill up" or "recharge"
Just some food for thought.... My "prediction" isn't predicated on (1) people wanting to save the planet or (2) people wanting to do something they feel is good or "right". It is predicated on
PURE ECONOMIC SELF INTEREST. The other "stuff"....which I feel is "good"....is just icing on the cake.