Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

When will the last NEW ICE PASSENGER CAR (Not trucks, not hybrids) be sold in the US by a MAJOR car brand?

After 2035
12 (60%)
After 2030 but before end of 2035
3 (15%)
After 2025 but before end of 2030
4 (20%)
By the end of 2025
1 (5%)

Total Members Voted: 19

Voting closed: April 13, 2018, 05:11:18 PM

Author Topic: Date by which last NEW PASSENGER CAR will be sold by a major brand in the US.  (Read 2707 times)

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Poll to see when people think the last NEW ICE passenger car (not trucks....not hybrids.... "ICE ONLY" passenger cars) be sold by a MAJOR car brand in the United States? 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7781
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1146
  • Likes Given: 537
I think before you stop using ALL CAPS.  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Quote
I think before you stop using ALL CAPS.  ;)

DEFINITELY  ;)
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2163
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1039
  • Likes Given: 762
I voted for after 2035, because I still believe that Greenland ice bottom melting make an important contribution as a short term negative feedback.

Imagine that 2018 will be a bad year and we even break the September 2012 low record, by 100,000 km2 less. At this moment, I would expect that this new record will melt ice and even permafrost on the Arctic, so I would expect at least a two years rebound, like 2008-09 or 2013-14, after 2007 and 2012, respectivitely.

So, I am now expecting an ice-free Arctic after several years, even that I could be wrong and we can have an ice-free Arctic on 2020.

But the questions are: Do we have enough? Do we really need an ice-free Arctic, to recognize all that has been happening? Do we need to wait and see that NEW ICE PASSENGER CARS are not sold by a MAJOR car brand? Do we need to break the September 2012 record on 2018? Or we should only make a sipnosis of what it has been happening in the Arctic, to know that we have to recognize the reality of AGW and say "That's enough!" to people in power, like Donald Trump?

P.S. I love your Donald Duck cartoon, Buddy. Sometimes I feel that way...  ;)
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 10:06:22 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Not voting, heck I don't even how long the US can exist in it's present form.  ;D

Adding a couple of graphs from EIA and Edmunds.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Why even bother with EIA forecasts?

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Which do you suggest instead?
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1906
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 26
ICE cars are to some degree a statement and will remain a statement far beyond when they make no economic sense. I watch for Teslas when I drive and here in Southern Calif. I spot one or two when I make any travel towards LA. I see hundreds of muscle cars with gas Mileage < 20mph , thousands of light trucks, large SUV 's and odd clunkers at < 15 mpg. There are plenty of drivers out there that will pay at the pump purely as a statement of anti-enviro, machismo , right wing revolt, and a thumb in the eye to those of us who think differently. 
 I would vote that ICE cars will be sold as long as cars are sold. I might be wrong but I will surely be dead before the last ICE car is sold.
 A better question might be at what fuel price will half of all sales be battery-electric ? I would vote
$ 8.00 a gallon. Even at that price there will still be dicks driving gas hogs, and buying cars to impress us with their status or politics.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 394
  • Likes Given: 25
Poll to see when people think the last NEW ICE passenger car (not trucks....not hybrids.... "ICE ONLY" passenger cars) be sold by a MAJOR car brand in the United States?

I voted for "After 2025 but before end of 2030."  But I think it's a toss-up as to why.  Maybe  because only EVs will be produced, or perhaps socio-economic collapse will mean no cars of any kind will be produced at all.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Which do you suggest instead?

I prefer no forecast over an EIA forecast.

EIA and IEA forecast the status quo or at best linear growth in terms of new cars and new power plants; and they track retirements. That methodology is incapable of tracking technology replacements, which is what we saw with coal (replaced by natural gas), and what we’re likely to see with EVs replacing ICEVs.

It’s almost impossible to get the transient numbers exactly right, because being off by a small percentage in growth rate sets you off by years, or conversely being off by a year gets you off by 20-40%, but the start and end of a technology replacement cycle are easy to gauge.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
numerobis, I didn't vote. ;)

If I did, it would have been closer to Bruce's wonderful comment above. Because that is close to what I see here as well.

Many people try to use similarities with this transition, to the evolution of computers, which is nuts. We can't minimize people or transports. There's plenty more real world obstacles on the horizon and it will take a lot longer than what many people belive. How long? It depends, but we will probably see an increase in fossil fuels up until at least 2020, there's good support for that when reading the prospects and investmets of many oil companies.
So there I do believe that EIA is correct. 1st image.
US Oil history according to BP. 2nd image.
US export of crude oil. 4rd image.
Also looking at the history of US car sales. 4th image.

Do I like it? No. Does this make sense to me? No. :(
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2839
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 181
  • Likes Given: 58
Last one is hard to estimate, who knows maybe one will be built as a monument (to human stupidity?) or something silly.

More useful poll might be when we reach 50% of all car sales not having a ff engine (so hybrids count as same as ICE)?

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Sleepy:

Quote
How long? It depends, but we will probably see an increase in fossil fuels up until at least 2020, there's good support for that when reading the prospects and investmets of many oil companies. So there I do believe that EIA is correct. 1st image.

I agree with you on this...."peak production" of oil is likely to be in the 2020 - 2021. 

Quote
US Oil history according to BP. 2nd image.

Keep in mind....the "US history" of oil production doesn't include any significant amount of EV's.  It is....BEV....Before EV's.

Quote
US export of crude oil. 4rd image
.

And again.....BEV...Before EV's.  Also....HORIZONTAL Fracking is something new over the last 10 years. 
 
Quote
Also looking at the history of US car sales. 4th image.

Again....Before EV's.

Good thoughts though.  I appreciate ALL the responses....  If we don't ask questions....we will NEVER get to good answers.   
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 13
I vote for not in any of our lifetimes.   

Let's think about the light bulb. CFLs have been available for around 30 years, LEDs for somewhat less.  What shape do people want their bulbs?   Still stuck on the "original" shape from close to 100 year ago.

Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 5
I vote for not in any of our lifetimes.   

Let's think about the light bulb. CFLs have been available for around 30 years, LEDs for somewhat less.  What shape do people want their bulbs?   Still stuck on the "original" shape from close to 100 year ago.

Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.


In Iceland, where gasoline is at $7.80/USGal, 16.6% of new car sales over the last 8 months were EV or Hybrid, so I fear that even Bruce's $8.00/gal may be far too low.
US auto majors will be making ICE vehicles as long as it's profitable to make them. As long as gasoline or diesel is available, and as long as it's possible to license and insure an ICE, customers will be lined up to buy them.
Terry

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
What is the relevance of a poll which excludes 2/3 of sales???? 

Is this some kind of cherry picking?

Light trucks, suv's and crossovers account for 2/3 of sales currently.  Take into account heavy trucks and industrial equipment and the picture is even more different.  Take into account the strong likelihood that fuel prices are going to remain very low for the foreseeable future - besides the fact that we have huge amounts of reserves available the rise in ev production will eventually put downward pressure on fuel prices as reserves dwindle - thus keeping ICE vehicles competitive for quite some time.  And last but not least will how does this relate to military vehicles considering that the military is the single largest user of petroleum fuel in the US.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Quote
Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.

Possible.  But take your light bulb example for a minute, and consider the following:

1)  Instead of new light bulbs being MORE EXPENSIVE....what happens if in 3 years they were LESS EXPENSIVE TO BUY?  It is expected....based on the CURRENT DOWNWARD  COST CURVE that has been in play for the last 5 years or so.....that you can buy a $20,000 EV car in the year 2022.  A new EV in 2022 will be LESS than a new ICE in the same "low end" category.

2)  What if....instead of just having a couple of designs you don't like....there are MANY DESIGNS, some of which you do like...especially if they are less expensive to buy?  There are many, many more designs coming.  And car makers will have MORE flexibility in design, because you don't need that "tunnel" running up the middle of your car.

Now...regarding cars you have 3 additional things you DON'T have in light bulbs:

(A) there is a cost of maintenance in cars....you have to "fix them" and maintain them from time-to-time.  Light bulbs....you only have to replace...and the if the cost of replacing is LESS EXPENSIVE for new tech bulbs, you are more likely to use those.  The cost of maintaining an EV is 5 to 10 TIMES less expensive than an ICE car.

(B) the cost of manufacturing is far less.  The large manufacturing companies will only produce them IF there are enough buyers.  As I stated before....you will likely have "niche manufacturers" of small numbers of ICE cars (for as long as they are allowed)....but not MAJOR manufacturers.  They have to have enough cars....otherwise it is too expensive.

(C) the cost of RUNNING an EV is significantly less than an ICE car.  And those dollars are MUCH bigger than the savings of new bulbs vs old bulbs.  And people "feel that" every time they either "fill up" or "recharge"

Just some food for thought....  My "prediction" isn't predicated on (1) people wanting to save the planet or (2) people wanting to do something they feel is good or "right".  It is predicated on PURE ECONOMIC SELF INTEREST.  The other "stuff"....which I feel is "good"....is just icing on the cake.
 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 13
I would agree with your viewpoint on the debate, if all consumer made rational choices based on money / economics.  Unfortunately, I feel that is giving too much credit to consumers (overall). 

Note that I deliberately chose "viewpoint", as I do so enjoy these discussions, even though I mostly just read them!     

I personally believe incandescent bulbs would still be a major seller, if they weren't phased out by the rule of law.    Many consumer make purchasing decision based on what they trust and is cheapest today, not the cost for the life of the purchased item.  Absent a law which prohibits sales of ICE vehicles, I believe the market will still exist.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
I vote for not in any of our lifetimes.   

Let's think about the light bulb. CFLs have been available for around 30 years, LEDs for somewhat less.  What shape do people want their bulbs?   Still stuck on the "original" shape from close to 100 year ago.

Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.

What does shape have to do with anything?

LEDs are available in the same E26/A19 shape as incandescents.

EVs are available in hatchback, sedan, crossover, and luxury SUV.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Currently, LEDs are about 6x the price of incandescents (one LED or one box of incandescents for about the same price). They pay off even just in the cost of the bulbs because they last much longer, never mind the electricity. But they are still more expensive on the shelf.

For cars, we're likely to see EVs cheaper than ICEVs within a few years.

I'd bet at 50% of new cars by 2025-2030. I could see the last diesel F150 holding on quite a while longer.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Does “new passenger car” include robocars?  I can see a time when privately-owned cars are a niche item, few produced, individually made — yet public-use cars of various sorts are still manufactured at some volume, and available on demand, particularly in cities.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Quote
Does “new passenger car” include robocars?

YES. Sounds like "robocars".....although ALREADY in service in limited areas like Dubai (flying DRONE robocars no less)...., and in "beta" in areas like Phoenix, Arizona I believe.
 
Quote
I can see a time when privately-owned cars are a niche item, few produced, individually made — yet public-use cars of various sorts are still manufactured at some volume, and available on demand, particularly in cities. 

I agree.  Although that will take quite a while longer.  When THAT starts to kick in....maybe about 2022 or so....that will again "push" people away from not only ICE cars, but from ownership of ANY CAR.  That is a ways down the road....but at first, people will give up their 2nd or 3rd car and save a BOAT LOAD OF MONEY.  And in cities...it will become a no brainer just because of the cost of parking (the cost of parking in areas like NY or Boston is like another car payment in and of itself  ;)).

Tony Seba thinks that we will use 70 - 80% LESS CARS at some point in the future after "robocars" become mainstream (2030 - 2040 ??).  Think of the savings between maintenance, insurance, a wasting asset that sits for 95% of the time, etc.  Transportation costs are going to drop like Donald Trump's trousers at a beauty pageant on a "per mile driven" basis.   QUICKLY.... ;)
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
I'd expect the first production robocar to be a plugin hybrid and within a few years I expect they'll all be BEV -- well before the personal car market switches.

etienne

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1129
    • View Profile
    • About energy
  • Liked: 188
  • Likes Given: 3
Well, I voted for 2025 to 2030 because of a single word in the question : "MAJOR" brand.

Of course there will be ICE engine for a long time, but I'm pretty sure that all major brands will only produce battery or fuel cell cars before 2030. ICE will become some luxury product like horse carriage is today. Which major car brand sells horse carriage ? Well, in France, the Peugeot brand (PSA group) still sells pepper mills and bicylces, so you never know.
https://boutique.peugeot.com/fr/boutique/_/pa311/tous-nos-moulins