Poll on oil price

[Buddy]

Right now....WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) is about $60 a barrel.  Will it get to $85 before it gets to $35, OR will it get down to $35 before it gets to $85?

[gerontocrat]

Get this off the Arctic Sea Ice section (IMHO)

[Adam Ash]

Right now....WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) is about $60 a barrel.  Will it get to $85 before it gets to $35, OR will it get down to $35 before it gets to $85?

It will depend:
Scenario A:  Global demand continues as BAU at about 94 mb/d.  Tight and unconventional oil sources followed by old conventional fields hit peak and start to fall.  Lost production not replaced by viable discoveries or technical developments.  'Alternative' energy sources not ready to fill the gap.  Market forces run the price up, before the price collapses the global economy again and price tanks.  So it will get to '$85' as production falls below 95 mb/d with strong demand before it eventually (after a time of wonder/misery) gets to '$35' as the enforced adoption of a non-fossil-fuelled economy occurs, whether folk like it or not.  This is basically the catastrophic 'rush headlong off the cliff' scenario peak oilers have been fretting about since Hubbert.

Scenario B:  By some majik, replacement technologies such as solar PV, wind, electric vehicles and ships etc kills demand for fossil fuels before the more sensitive fields peak.  Demand drops away, never to return.  Production collapses and any remaining oil required for 'essential services' becomes more valuable, but at much lower volumes.  So it will get to '$35' (at 94 mb/d) before it gets to '$85' (at 25 mb/d).  This is the 'rose-tinted spectacles' scenario of those who think we can avoid dramatic climate change by altering the energy-source mix in the very near future. 

So for my money, I would take a quid either way, and see how it pans out. In the mean time I will put in another row of beans.

[JimD]

Relevance please.

There are more than adequate reserves to keep oil prices in a range which will make their use 'financially' sound for decades still.

There will be continuing technological advances which put downward pressure on prices which will offset any decline in reserves which put upward pressure on prices.

Absent govt intervention in the 'global' market via taxes this situation will not change.

[SteveMDFP]

Relevance please.

There are more than adequate reserves to keep oil prices in a range which will make their use 'financially' sound for decades still.

There will be continuing technological advances which put downward pressure on prices which will offset any decline in reserves which put upward pressure on prices.

Absent govt intervention in the 'global' market via taxes this situation will not change.

I think the price of oil is intimately related to how much CO2 is produced by humanity in the future.  So relevant to an "off-topic" section like this.

I voted for higher sooner than lower.  War in the middle east will cause prices to spike.  It may or may not last long, though.

It would be lovely if prices stayed above $85 because of a carbon tax.  I'm not holding my breath.

[TerryM]

No one has mentioned what the value of $85 US will be in the not too distant future.


Russia and China are now holding gold as opposed to American dollars. The BRICS countries +Iran are announcing that they will be trading without resorting to the dollar, and the States seems more determined than ever to print as many as she needs.


None of these point to a strong dollar, and for that reason I'll go high.
Terry

[Tor Bejnar]

I guess, Terry, I wasn't clear enough.  Either that or you've called me "no one"! 

...

I suspect the price per barrel will reach $140 again, even with EVs and renewable power generation; inflation will get us there.  (I'm not hoping it will happen during my lifetime, though!)  With $60 fracked oil and $80 tar sands oil (approximate thresholds, from memory), scarcity will not likely drive the price to $140 (current dollars) again.

[Bruce Steele]

From wherever it came
 and poured in
 to holes designed for

 Ever
  and who believed
  till it fell as all tall things do
 Or
  that we would escape
  on golden threads
   or beanstalks

For Adam,

 

[TerryM]

I guess, Terry, I wasn't clear enough.  Either that or you've called me "no one"! 

...

I suspect the price per barrel will reach $140 again, even with EVs and renewable power generation; inflation will get us there.  (I'm not hoping it will happen during my lifetime, though!)  With $60 fracked oil and $80 tar sands oil (approximate thresholds, from memory), scarcity will not likely drive the price to $140 (current dollars) again.

OUCH
My Bad


Seems as though we both remember our reactions when gas first hit $0.50/gal at the pump.
Terry

[be cause]

a forgotten poll .. Brent crude spent a little while above $85 .. b.c.

[Tor Bejnar]

...
Seems as though we both remember our reactions when gas first hit $0.50/gal at the pump.
Terry

I certainly remember Fina gas at 21 [actually 21⁹] cents near Durango, CO one summer (we kids read pumps as we drove by gas stations so that our dad could get the lowest price - prices for gas weren't posted [price of cigarettes was]).  I remember wondering if I could fill my motorcycle's 1 gal. tank when I had a quarter ($0.25 - one of the less stupid American coin names) as gas was 32⁹ cents) in my pocket as the tank wasn't actually empty [the service person did fill the tank] about 1969.  I remember seeing $0.99⁹ gas in Circle City, AK in 1974. But I have to say, I don't remember 50 cent gas!

[be cause]

on the price of 'gas' .. (petrol to me ) .. I remember my dad moving supplier when the price jumped from sixpence to ninepence in the mid 60's . That's from 2.5p to @ 4p a gallon . b.c.