The Shooting and the mid-terms

[JimD]

Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida - 17 killed.

The news is full of stories about the shooting .  Many of these stories have a narrative that this time it is different.  Change will come. I see many of the mainstream Democrats thinking that this will help them in handing the Republicans a giant defeat in the Nov elections.  But will that big defeat even happen.

So this is the first question.  Will the fallout from the shooting help the Democrats take control of the House/Senate or will the reaction from the right dominate.  Or neither.


This situation is a great test of where we actually are in terms of finding a common ground between the right and left in America.  Or whether we are truly on the road to a level of divisiveness which will bring the country to a point of being near ungovernable (the effects of decline).  There is potential here for the fallout from this situation galvanizing the Republican base in a way which could counterbalance expected gains by the Democrats.  Or perhaps we 'have' turned a corner and real change will happen. Or neither.  Which will it be?

Poll runs for 2 weeks.

[Neven]

Maybe add one more bin to the poll: Other factors are more important, attention for this shooting will fade.

Other than that I would think this helps Democrats, depending on how they make use of it. Does the NRA donate to Democrats?

[SteveMDFP]

Maybe add one more bin to the poll: Other factors are more important, attention for this shooting will fade.

Other than that I would think this helps Democrats, depending on how they make use of it. Does the NRA donate to Democrats?

The NRA contributes overwhelmingly more to Republicans than Democrats:
https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/recips.php?id=d000000082

I think the strongest pro-gun voters probably vote in elections at a higher rate than gun control voters.  That may well change in the upcoming election.

[JimD]

Maybe add one more bin to the poll: Other factors are more important, attention for this shooting will fade.

Other than that I would think this helps Democrats, depending on how they make use of it. Does the NRA donate to Democrats?

Umm I don't know how to modify it.  Feel free.

The NRA used to give a substantial amount to the D's but it has dropped off the table the last 2 years. see Steve's link.  But where their money really flows is not that chart as they have PAC's which can spend unlimited money to support 'issues'.  For instance they spent over $30 million supporting Trump in the 16 election.

https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/totals.php?id=d000000082&cycle=2014

Democratic Party strategizing (an oxymoron of course) tends to focus on issues which strengthen the Republicans vice figuring out what the R's weaknesses are and focusing on attacking them there.  They are currently focused on guns and immigration both of which play into Republican strengths.  Now single payer health care as an issue would pull huge numbers of people like me (socialists and liberals) into the fold and would also be attractive to many Republican voters.  But they don't dare do that as their Wall Street backers would castrate them.

[Neven]

Umm I don't know how to modify it.  Feel free.

OK, will do.

Democratic Party strategizing (an oxymoron of course) tends to focus on issues which strengthen the Republicans vice figuring out what the R's weaknesses are and focusing on attacking them there.  They are currently focused on guns and immigration both of which play into Republican strengths.  Now single payer health care as an issue would pull huge numbers of people like me (socialists and liberals) into the fold and would also be attractive to many Republican voters.  But they don't dare do that as their Wall Street backers would castrate them.

As you probably know, there's a thread where we discuss these things. 

[gerontocrat]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-26/why-corporate-america-is-fleeing-the-nra

Why Corporate America Is Fleeing the NRA
Big companies such as Delta and Hertz have a lot more customers than the NRA’s 5 million members

Corporate America, or at least the segment with business ties to the National Rifle Association, is rapidly deciding that the association is toxic. Companies that severed deals with the NRA include, but are not limited to: Avis Budget Group, Best Western, Chubb, Delta Air Lines, MetLife, Symantec, United Airlines, and Wyndham Worldwide. Meanwhile, Amazon.com, Apple, FedEx, Google, and Roku are under intense social media pressure to follow suit and #BoycottNRA, as the hashtag has it. (FedEx Corp. offers NRA members discounted shipping; the other four companies stream the NRA’s video channel.)

If the politicians are powerless, at least business can do something.

[Martin Gisser]

America has a mental health crisis:
Trump's Wild West phantasies of arming teachers is so utterly ridicu-lousily nuts that I haven't yet found adequate words. Folks and media (not to speak of the NRA-GOP) still don't get the differences between a Glock handgun and a AR-15. The gun nuts live in a phantasy land.

The high school kids are amazing. True heroes. Dwarfing the "grown-ups". Sometimes there's hope for America. They, if anybody, will destroy the NRA.

[Neven]

How about this solution:

[Martin Gisser]

(More original Norman Rockwell paintings e.g. here: https://www.wikiart.org/en/norman-rockwell )

[Martin Gisser]

How about this solution:
[...]

Not far from what happened:

the NRA had donated over $10,000 in equipment to a four-person marksmanship team at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. The small team included Nikolas Cruz, who has been charged with murdering 17 people with an AR-15 rifle. While a member of the team, Cruz honed his rifle skills, practicing hitting targets the size of a coin with an air rifle.

Dana Loesch (NRA) says:

The same ROTC students used Kevlar padding to protect their classmates. But truth doesn’t matter to you.

https://thinkprogress.org/nra-defends-grant-nikolas-cruz-8f2be1c57b53/

(... and I thought Kellyanne Conway was a stone cold nutter bitch )

This Kevlar padding was used behind the shooting targets in the gym.

[Martin Gisser]

 I voted "yes". The shooting has accelerated tha NRA-GOP downward spiral, now a frenzy of crazy (e.g. CPAC) that won't escape even some diehard conservatives. This time the sane Republicans will stay away from voting, while the librols are energized as never before. Seems like the "blue wave" is a thing. And the last hope.

[TerryM]

The Left will become enraged, the Right will become engaged, Both will have forgotten why they were enraged or engaged long before the votes are cast.


But they will both remember just how right they were, and how wrong the others were.
Terry

[Human Habitat Index]

Is it true that a drill was going on at the school that day and two students in seperate interviews said that there was more than one shooter ?

[Susan Anderson]

Well, I got shot down before for suggesting that people actually here in the US might have a better view of developments and more perspective over time, but my country is riveted and this is very heartening.

If all you can do is be cynical, perhaps this is not the best time or place for it.

Those kids are amazing. They are very smart, totally media savvy, and they're staying on it. The ones who are now 18 just registered to vote. Lots of companies are cutting off special privileges for NRA customers. Trump is being even more of an idiotic hypocrite and liar than usual.

I think they and the women are gaining momentum.

The thing people seem to be missing is the sheer numbers of new candidates for all offices. Beto O'Rourke is challenging Ted Cruz, and I think he has a chance to win. This is not a small thing, thousands, many thousands, of new candidates with excellent support systems.

Jennifer Lawrence (movie superstar) was on Colbert tonight, and she's been educating herself and going around to schools to talk about getting money out of elections. Things like that.

[Susan Anderson]

PS. The question as phrased and format of replies in the poll are contradictory. I'd vote yes if it means this is going to boost "the resistance"; it has certainly done so. The national shock over all the shootings is cumulative, and the attempt to label the kids "crisis actors" is not going over well. (We had that at Sandy Hook as well.) The NRA is being exposed, and their advocates are not looking good. Republicans are being shamed. People who've been working on this issue all along are providing infrastructure. I'm wondering how many will show up on March 24 in DC. My guess: millions. I will certainly go to the related local one wherever I am.

[Neven]

The difficulty will in be in sustaining the momentum. We've seen how people simply fell asleep after Obama came into office, and those who suffered from the policies, were disheartened and didn't even bother voting (or voted for Trump in the next election).

But it's very good that young people are getting engaged. I just hope all that energy gets channeled the right way and doesn't get derailed by corporate interests. Young people may be smart, but probably not wise enough yet to see through their conditioning.

[Susan Anderson]

The difficulty will in be in sustaining the momentum. We've seen how people simply fell asleep after Obama came into office, and those who suffered from the policies, were disheartened and didn't even bother voting (or voted for Trump in the next election).

But it's very good that young people are getting engaged. I just hope all that energy gets channeled the right way and doesn't get derailed by corporate interests. Young people may be smart, but probably not wise enough yet to see through their conditioning.

Neven, I am marinated in my world, and you in yours. I do wish you'd get rid of your distorting lens that can't let anything get by without being about "corporate interests". These kids are a lot more than all right, and part of it is that they come from varied backgrounds and have varied opinions, and are not losing sight of the ball. My opinion, they're wiser than we are at the moment (except on the subject of ice). They know what needs doing and they're doing it. This is a turning of the kaleidoscope that nobody expected and its beautiful. Let us enjoy a moment of respite from the horror who wants to shoot and nuke the world to feed his ego.

OTOH, I was thinking that all the companies divesting from the NRA are only stopping giving discounts to gun owners. That doesn't look like progress to me. Returning to no discount for gun owners is hardly a statement. That's how bad things are.

Off topic, I got a call two days ago from this gal https://www.katiewilsonforcongress.com/, and she too gave me courage. And this is interesting. The women are not giving up: have a look https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/nyregion/women-nyc-council-public-office.html

[ritter]

Based on what Democrats are doing at the federal level on "common sense" gun control, the Republicans will pick up seats in the next election. Rather that focus on the AR15 and/or bump stocks (outrage of the moment), the Dems just introduced the 2018 Assault Weapon Ban that includes AR15s as well as virtually all other semi automatic rifles and many semi automatic shotguns. They will piss away any political capital they have by pushing for an agenda that is unacceptable to the majority of Americans all while causing another boom in AR15 sales.

Folks can can argue about the utility of the AR15 under the Second Amendment but the current effort crosses the line from addressing public sentiment to the absurd. I am no supporter of the NRA (they are vile) but this is exactly why the pro gun side refuses to give on otherwise sensible issues--the anti gun side continues to eat away at gun rights. Like it or not, we have guns in the US (millions of them) and they are protected by the Constitution, just like free speech and religion.

For a little bit of factual information on gun deaths (because you won't get it from the media or either side of the political isle):



The fact is, you're far more likely to be killed by fists, feet, clubs and knives than any rifle (AR15 included--you'll also note that deaths from rifles has been declining in the years represented above). And none of those causes comes close to your risk of being killed by a handgun (especially if you're a young black male) I'm not saying that we shouldn't work to reduce gun violence, quite the contrary. But if we're honest about that intention, we're way off target (pun intended) on the means to get there. Violence needs to be addressed. Suicide needs to be addressed. Handguns need to be addressed. Semi automatic rifles are just a boogieman in statistically reducing gun deaths.

I say all of this as a Democratic voting liberal.

[Tor Bejnar]

I agree with most of what you write, ritter, but the table's line "Firearms, type not stated" is so large that long gun's statistics in relation to knives, etc. probably cannot be determined. 

[Neven]

The fact is, you're far more likely to be killed by fists, feet, clubs and knives than any rifle

I've never heard about a school shooting where 20-30 people were killed by fists/feet/clubs/knives. 

[ritter]

I agree with most of what you write, ritter, but the table's line "Firearms, type not stated" is so large that long gun's statistics in relation to knives, etc. probably cannot be determined.

Agreed. However, if it was an AR, you can bet it was reported as such and had media frenzy.

[ritter]

The fact is, you're far more likely to be killed by fists, feet, clubs and knives than any rifle

I've never heard about a school shooting where 20-30 people were killed by fists/feet/clubs/knives. 

Neven,
I understand that. As a primarily data-driven board, I thought I'd introduce some. There are recorded incidents of mass stabbings  (China, Japan, and in Europe). My point is, we should be honest about the goal, the cause, the cure and it's burden on constitutional rights. Ban is a big word and it has real consequences. And there is no evidence that our previous assault weapon ban reduced gun violence. We tried it, just like we tried prohibition and drugs. I'll suggest we'd get much further with a solid health care system and social support network, improving everyone's life without significant constitutional right infringement. But that would take real work and a real commitment to raising each other up.

[ritter]

Also at Neven, et. al.

Since many (abroad and at home) find our Second Amendment absurd, here's a brief on the Heller case that most recently defines it:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/07-290.ZS.html

In brief, the Second Amendment is not limited to militia use and protects and individual's right to firearms "in common use." It's a pretty fascinating read.

Corrected link

[Iceismylife]

...

 I'll suggest we'd get much further with a solid health care system and social support network, improving everyone's life without significant constitutional right infringement. But that would take real work and a real commitment to raising each other up.

Wealth inequity is a bigger problem.

My brother was an amateur magician.  You keep one hand moving as the other gets up to no good.  What is the hand that is up to no good?

 Let us focus on what maters. The top is good at acquiring wealth.  It is what they do and what defines them.  If too much wealth gets into to small of a pool things don't go so smoothly.  Anything besides that is a distraction.  Health care is a distraction, mass shootings are a distraction.  Gun control is a distraction. 

Closing the wealth gap, and it needs to be done globally not just domestically.

[TerryM]

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Winston Churchill - and more recently Rob Emanuel

Fear not, neither side will pass on the opportunities that 17 dead kids bring to the table.


The FBI forgot what that "I" stood for. The Broward County Sheriff's took a notably lais affair approach to community policing. Both the NRA & ROTC seem to have erred in vetting the students they offer rifle training to.
Plenty of blame to go around.


It won't change any minds, but may serve to harden everyone's position. A pox on the propagandists from both sides.


RIP
Terry

[ritter]

Fear not, neither side will pass on the opportunities that 17 dead kids bring to the table.

That's really the disgusting crux of it, isn't it?

[JimD]

The difficulty will in be in sustaining the momentum. We've seen how people simply fell asleep after Obama came into office, and those who suffered from the policies, were disheartened and didn't even bother voting (or voted for Trump in the next election).

But it's very good that young people are getting engaged. I just hope all that energy gets channeled the right way and doesn't get derailed by corporate interests. Young people may be smart, but probably not wise enough yet to see through their conditioning.

Word.

And I would add that we are already seeing the momentum dying and can clearly see the NRA once again calling in favors. 

There will be another crisis in a few days as they come like the sun rising.  A few weeks from now I expect we will not be hearing all that much about this.  This is especially true if a big event happens.  The election is a long way away still.  The NRA and the folks highly motivated by the wildly exaggerated threats to the 2nd Amendment will not however lose focus.  There has undoubtedly been a huge run of gun sales right now and quite a few items have gone into caches - just in case you know.  They truly believe that the Democrats will try and take the guns if they get a chance and they will come out and vote.  This event and its aftermath will up the Republican vote.

I would love it if the young actually came out and voted. It has never happened in the history of the US - yet.  It would truly change the world.  But will they?  When I was 18 and protesting the war and all for civil rights I thought my generation would make that change - a bit optimistic there ha ha. 

Funny little story.  Yesterday there was a news report here in AZ.  A house burned down Sun night in the Valley (Phoenix area).  This house was a very large house (rich folks) and the family was in a part of the house all watching a movie or something.  The other end of this giant house caught fire and they did not even know it was burning.  So when the fire trucks arrive the man goes outside to see what is going on and - oops!.  So he has to warn the firemen that the part of the house which is on fire is where his guns and ammo is stored and they need to stay away from it.  He had 20,000 rounds of ammo. So, unfortunately for him, his entire house ended up burning down.  The kicker was there was no mention on the news or anything I have seen where someone said, "Why does he have 20,000 rounds of ammo?"  People think nothing of it here.

The wife asked me if I would turn in my assault rifle if they were banned.  I told her I would as I only got it in case I needed to shoot a bunch of the NRA/militia type nuts who are going to try and overthrow the US govt someday - and I am getting a little old now to run around like that anymore.   Ahh lost youth.  Something which I expect is a bit concerning to those types is that the antifa/anarchist types have taken to buying such weapons and learning how to use them - they actually have a fair number of former soldiers in the groups who are helping with that process.  Some dojo's which teach mixed martial arts are giving them free lessons also.  My son was at one of the big dustups where the militia/white supremacist groups ended up in a fight with the antifa/anarchist groups.  The milita types had brought weapons like knifes and clubs.  Two guys right next to my son were stabbed right in front of the police and they did nothing.  In the future there are going to be knifes, clubs and assault rifles on both sides.  We are on a dark path.

[ritter]

We are on a dark path.

That's for sure.

[pileus]

Looks like some of you insist on ignoring data and trends, which is ironic for a science driven community.

Every special election at the national level and many at the state level since early 2017 give the trajectory of a massive wave election for Dems in Nov.  It’s simply reality, but go on with the edgy takes and your fainting couches about Corporate Dems.  The primary confounding variables will be Republican supression and Republicans permitting unchallenged Russian interference.  IMO it’s 70/30 the GOP prevails in F ing with the election.  Otherwise it’s an undeniable wave for Dems and Speaker Pelosi.

The Parkland survivors have already managed to keep this massacre in the news cycle for than a few days, so it’s different this time.  They are social media experts, the GOP state and national politicians and pundits are no match for them.  But 18 year olds turn out at 20% for elections.  They are going to lead a shift in the assault weapon debate but they also need to show up in Nov.

[ritter]

Looks like some of you insist on ignoring data and trends, which is ironic for a science driven community.

Every special election at the national level and many at the state level since early 2017 give the trajectory of a massive wave election for Dems in Nov.  It’s simply reality, but go on with the edgy takes and your fainting couches about Corporate Dems.  The primary confounding variables will be Republican supression and Republicans permitting unchallenged Russian interference.  IMO it’s 70/30 the GOP prevails in F ing with the election.  Otherwise it’s an undeniable wave for Dems and Speaker Pelosi.

The Parkland survivors have already managed to keep this massacre in the news cycle for than a few days, so it’s different this time.  They are social media experts, the GOP state and national politicians and pundits are no match for them.  But 18 year olds turn out at 20% for elections.  They are going to lead a shift in the assault weapon debate but they also need to show up in Nov.

So Clinton won then? That's what all the polls, data and opinion indicated. She was a turd but I voted for her. The alternative was the shit pile we have now. I think we've entered a time in US politics where prediction and polling are useless. We've become factioned, tribalized, like I've never seen. As JimD says, we're on a dark path. All of this angst and we don't even really acknowledge the elephant in the room that is climate change. Talk about a threat multiplier.

The Parkland survivors are an amazing group of people and I truly hope you're right that their momentum continues into the election. But I have little faith in that.

[Hefaistos]

In Response to Our Beach’s Increased Number of Shark Attacks, We Will Be Arming Lifeguards With Sharks of Their Own

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/in-response-to-our-beachs-increased-number-of-shark-attacks-we-will-be-arming-lifeguards-with-sharks-of-their-own