On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?

[Neven]

Alternative poll title: When will the 2018 melting season thread be opened? 

Past JAXA SIE maximum dates:

2005: March 7
2006: March 10
2007: February 24
2008: March 9
2009: March 2
2010: March 31
2011: March 16
2012: March 7
2013: March 14
2014: March 21
2015: February 15
2016: February 29
2017: March 6
2018: ?

Hautbois, if you're reading,  could you post that graph of yours for visual support?

Poll will run for 5 days (March 6th). Keep your eyes on the forecasts.

[werther]

With all respect, Neven. This metric will appear to be of little consequence. What is decisive is 'winter power' at the one side and summer melt on the other. The first is now, given the late februari weirdness, at par with '15-'16. Very weak. For the second, I agree with others that a sudden anomalously warm summer will roll the dice...

[gerontocrat]

I am voting for the average - March 15. Note that no year actually finished on that average date.
I am voting for that date as it gives me a few days to change the spreadsheet from min-to-max to max-to-min. The cold here in the UK is making my brain cells slow down. I do hope the weather gods are listening. Fat chance.

[Neven]

JAXA Maximum has become a poll SIE minimum  (please delete when corrected?)

That's funny, I was afraid I was going to get that wrong, and I did it anyway. Thanks for the catch.

With all respect, Neven. This metric will appear to be of little consequence. What is decisive is 'winter power' at the one side and summer melt on the other. The first is now, given the late februari weirdness, at par with '15-'16. Very weak. For the second, I agree with others that a sudden anomalously warm summer will roll the dice...

Sorry, werther, for writing minimum instead of maximum in the poll question. This is just a fun poll, also to pre-empt discussions about when to open the 2018 melting season thread. Which is an annual thing.

[Hautbois]

Greetings from snowy SW England. Attached, as requested.
During 1990-2017, the median and the mean were both day 68, which in a non-leap year is March 9th. So I'm going for the 8-10 bin.

[Tor Bejnar]

I was delighted to read somewhere on these threads that "Spring starts on March 1".  In the good ol' U.S. of A., spring legally starts on the spring equinox.  I've thought this odd for decades, maybe influenced by my time in God's Own (N.Z.).  In New Hampshire (NH), gardeners put freeze intolerant seedlings in the ground on Memorial Day weekend (end of May) (when I lived there 20+ years ago).  In north Florida, spring comes, um, early.  (My bananas didn't freeze one winter, but have all others.) 

So being an American, despite my 'odd thoughts', lets start the melting season on the NH (Northern Hemisphere this time) spring equinox.  And while we're at it, lets start the freezing season on the NH summer solstice.  Maybe this way we'll get more ice (area, extend and volume) and put an end to global warming by edict!   

For fun, I voted with my new-found political orientation (March 20 = equinox where I live).

[Paddy]

I'm going to place an outlying guess on "same as last year" aka March 5-7.

[Cid_Yama]

So far it hasn't crossed the 'lowest for that date' line.  The highest lowest for that date appears to be day 61.

[Dharma Rupa]

In New Hampshire (NH), gardeners put freeze intolerant seedlings in the ground on Memorial Day weekend (end of May)

30 years ago here in Mass (eastern) I planted on Memorial Day, but I've been planting roughly May Day ever since, and never killed a plant from a late frost -- and at first I thought I was taking a chance.  Of course, in 78 they'd have been buried under a meter of snow....

[Pmt111500]

Voting for the ~date of balance in circular orbit black body radiation, that is the equinox, thoug it'll be earlier, i say.

[werther]

Well I did vote for fun and guess that 15 March might be a good date to open up a Melt season thread.

[Sleepy]

I'll go for March 26:th, because that is the only date left out, to vote on. 

[Juan C. García]

I am voting for March 8-10.

I think that the maximum could happen in that range. But even if it doesn't, I am eager to start the melting season thread. So, I vote to start it on March 8th.   

[oren]

My random number generator said 8-10.

[be cause]

i hate extent s a measurement but it is more useful at max than min . Chose St Paddy's day .. I feel some areas will be growing for quite some time to come .. we may have a very late max .. but .. 17.03 for me .. b,c.

[DavidR]

I'm expecting relatively rapid rise over the next  few days followed by slow decline so I  plumped for the middle of the month 11-13th for the Max

However if its the date of the opening of the melt season thread that  could depend when the extent has dropped enough to  not go back up and would not be until the end of the Month.

In my  view the melt season thread should start on March 1, it;s the first day of Spring for most of us and its also  St David's day.

[johnm33]

Two choices 12^th,26^th, but since the latter is not available

[Sleepy]

Two choices 12^th,26^th, but since the latter is not available

It's hard to vote on something left out. Maybe Neven is denying March 26:th?

I'll go for March 26:th, because that is the only date left out, to vote on. 

[Neven]

Fixed now. Luckily no one voted for the last three bins yet. 

[Nightvid Cole]

I'm going with March 11th-13th, which just 'feels' right to my 'gut'.

[uniquorn]

Mar2-4. Extent will struggle to recover from losses in Labrador, Bering/Chukchi and Okhotsk over the next few days.

[Paddy]

Mar2-4. Extent will struggle to recover from losses in Labrador, Bering/Chukchi and Okhotsk over the next few days.

March 1st, of course, was higher than 2nd or 3rd, but still your guess would be the closest if there isn't much of a rise yet to happen. I'd now place even odds on that happening, with the other outcome spread out amongst all the other bins, so I've moved my vote to the same bin as you.

[Jim Pettit]

I'm thinking that 2018 will see a late maximum, then a 2012-like plunge to a record minimum.

[gerontocrat]

I'm thinking that 2018 will see a late maximum, then a 2012-like plunge to a record minimum.

I am with you on date (Polar Vortex collapse, -ve NAO etc), but am too much of a wimp to venture a guess at the minimum.

[Hautbois]

Graph update. 2018 is sticking close to 2017 and 2015, which is the lowest-year-for-the-day until day 75 (March 16).

[aperson]

I'm thinking that 2018 will see a late maximum, then a 2012-like plunge to a record minimum.

I agree with the late maximum but I'm not so sure about the rest. Mid range global weather models indicate conditions for marginal continuing refreeze so I feel like somewhere in the middle of March is likely. We have such anomalously high snow-water equivalent that I naively think that NH snow albedo alongside ENSO conditions will prevent a catastrophic melt season. However, I have no idea what's in store underwater or from synoptic scale atmospheric dynamics in the summer.

[Dharma Rupa]

I'm thinking that 2018 will see a late maximum, then a 2012-like plunge to a record minimum.

Will it be a late max or a long plateau with a technical max somewhere in it?

A Sunny Summer means a certain record minimum, but I'm wondering if a cloudy Summer precludes a record, or if it is still possible.  Given the state of the ice I wouldn't be surprised at a cold Summer and a complete melt-out.

[Cid_Yama]

The max has already happened. 

[ArcticMelt1]

In the Bering Sea a new wave of melting.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/970369231601614848

Bering Sea ice extent growth from @NSIDC  data has stalled due to a series of storms in the region; as of March  03 extent only 38% of 1981-2010 median and  lower than any day between  Jan 17 and Apr 20, 1979-2017.

[oren]

Graph update. 2018 is sticking close to 2017 and 2015, which is the lowest-year-for-the-day until day 75 (March 16).

Hautbois, thank you again for this great chart.
I too get the feeling the max might actually be behind us, as Cid_Yama hints.

[gregcharles]

Hautbois, thank you again for this great chart.
I too get the feeling the max might actually be behind us, as Cid_Yama hints.

+1 on the chart.

"The max has already happened," is a pretty strong hint. I might even call it a claim! 

[Sleepy]

Fixed now. Luckily no one voted for the last three bins yet. 

Thanks Neven. So...
A drop yesterday as well via ADS but no fun in going for that. The SSW already had it's glory days and since 2016 had a late peak on the 22:nd and 2015 had a late peak on the 26:th, I'll be the crazy here and go for the date Neven denied. 

Edit; oh, thought I would be alone in that bin. 

[Cid_Yama]

I have 6 people who have joined me in the poll.  Still time to change your vote.   

[Sleepy]

Well, we people are the primary cause of Arctic sea ice demise but not like that, Cid.

[Cid_Yama]

Hi-Ho Hi-Ho   

[Sleepy]

You will also find that Sleepy's characteristics are already posted on this fine forum Cid.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.msg40026.html#msg40026

[oren]

As a matter of principle I usually vote when polls open, and then refuse to change my vote with new data, as it doesn't feel like fair sport. But principles are made to be broken, and here I am, a proud new member of the first bin.

[Neven]

The max has already happened. 

Perhaps it has! And I still didn't open the 2018 melting season thread. Shame on me. 

PS I'm sticking with March 17-19. 

[Pavel]

I don't know how really to predict the day of the minimum. One just have to throw a coin or choose a random option. In terms of starting the melting season I prefer to wait until the equinox

[gerontocrat]

Having just posted the latest JAXA data and looked at the freezing thread, I am now totally convinced that maximum will be sometime between March 1st and March 31st.

[Cid_Yama]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2236.msg144692.html#msg144692

Hautbois's updated chart.

Now have 11 people who have joined me.  Still a few hours to change your vote.  Think of it now as calling it.  Not predicting it.

Tell me.  Have we reached the max?  You know what I, and 11 other posters think.

Looks like @ 13.75, which is the center of the curve for the Maximum Poll.

[aperson]

Jaxa @ 13.63 (-0.06) for 4th consecutive day of losses. Now -0.13 from the March 1st maximum.

[Juan C. García]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2236.msg144692.html#msg144692

Hautbois's updated chart.

Now have 11 people who have joined me.  Still a few hours to change your vote.  Think of it now as calling it.  Not predicting it.

Tell me.  Have we reached the max?  You know what I, and 11 other posters think.

Looks like @ 13.75, which is the center of the curve for the Maximum Poll.

You got it! 
Feeling I am cheating, but I change my vote.
March 1st the new lowest maximum, with 13.76M km2.
Still possible to break, but difficult, as the time passes.

Edit: No March 1st Option, so March 2nd will be... 

[miki]

More than a vote, I made a wish.

[Cid_Yama]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2236.msg144692.html#msg144692

Hautbois's updated chart.

Now have 11 people who have joined me.  Still a few hours to change your vote.  Think of it now as calling it.  Not predicting it.

Tell me.  Have we reached the max?  You know what I, and 11 other posters think.

Looks like @ 13.75, which is the center of the curve for the Maximum Poll.

You got it! 
Feeling I am cheating, but I change my vote.
March 1st the new lowest maximum, with 13.76M km2.
Still possible to break, but difficult, as the time passes.

Edit: No March 1st Option, so March 2nd will be... 

You have to work with what you have.  13 now the official number in the first bin.  Maybe we can get Neven to extend the first bin to 3/1. After all, that was the day he started the poll.

[Sleepy]

ADS reports the two day average, the following day. Extending the first bin to include March 1, would also be impossible considering the thread title(s). 

Topic: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?

or

When will the 2018 melting season thread be opened? 

[oren]

Actually it's quite ironic if the max was already in on the day the poll was opened. 

[Neven]

If the max was indeed reached on March 1st, it looks like no one has won. 

PS I'm amazed...

[gerontocrat]

If the max was indeed reached on March 1st, it looks like no one has won. 

PS I'm amazed...

I said between Mar 1 and March 31 - I win?

[Neven]

I said between Mar 1 and March 31 - I win?

Look at the poll. Do you see 'March 1-31' anywhere?