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Author Topic: Global sea ice area and extent data  (Read 129335 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: September 12, 2019, 09:13:38 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 11 September 2019 :   22,260,424  km2

The false minimum of late August / Early September is past. So this analysis reverts to looking at the late Oct / early Nov maximum

In the last week extent has dropped, after a period of 2 weeks when overall mostly very low Arctic extent losses and somewhat above Antarctic extent gains has meant that Global Sea Ice Extent did not reduce to the false minimum but increased. Now, when extent increase is the norm, extent is reducing. Confused?

- Global extent in 3rd place, 
- extent 70 k above 2016, & 120 k above 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.01 million km2, 0.37 million km2 (5.7%) less than the average gain of 6.38 million km2 by this day,
-on average 70.7% of extent gain done and 54 days to the maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.91 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.27 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which the last 3 months Oct-Dec were the most extraordinary).
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This is an odd and immensely irritating time of year - why can't the ice be good and stay nice and close to the average daily changes?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: September 15, 2019, 11:33:43 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 September 2019 :    22,219,733  km2

In the last week extent has dropped, even as "the norm" returns to extent increases to the November max.

- Global extent in 3rd place, 
- extent 188 k above 2016, & 108 k above 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 5.97 million km2, 0.42 million km2 (6.6%) less than the average gain of 6.39 million km2 by this day,
-on average 70.9% of extent gain done and 51 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.85 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.21 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which the last 3 months Oct-Dec were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: Today at 04:43:04 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 September 2019 :     22,191,387  km2

In the last week extent has dropped, even as "the norm" returns to extent increases to the November max.

- On this day Global extent became lowest again, making 119 days in 2019 at lowest, 
- extent 42 k below 2016, & 164 k below 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 5.94 million km2, 0.54 million km2 (8.4%) less than the average gain of 6.48 million km2 by this day,
-on average 71.9% of extent gain done and 47 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.73 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.09 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: Today at 05:04:45 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 September 2019 :     22,191,387  km2

A bit more...


I attach the graph for the entire year. Makes it obvious that 2019 was not a good year for the cryosphere

The Perils of Projections I also attach the plume of projections. In the last 10 years the remaining extent gain over the last 7 weeks or so to maximum gives a range of maxima between 23.5 and 25.5 million km2, a range of 2 million.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)