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Author Topic: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.  (Read 14007 times)

Martin Gisser

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #100 on: May 16, 2018, 05:59:58 PM »
Pretty close to 85F here today, using Fahrenheit as this is the meaningless thread.
ROTFL...
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Adam Ash

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #101 on: May 17, 2018, 01:31:42 AM »
:)  Nice! and I trust you are measuring ice lead widths in milliparsecs and field velocity in furlongs per fortnight too, following the dictum that all variables in technical papers shall be defined in the most inconvenient unit possible! 

Alexander555

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slow wing

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #103 on: May 22, 2018, 05:47:52 AM »
21 May. so we're one month before the summer solstice.

Maybe a good date to flag about when the amount of cloud cover in the Arctic Basin Proper has become really important?

I don't worry too much about the Arctic sea ice outside the central Basin because that is going to melt out anyway.

Roughly speaking, cloud cover insulates the ice from the sky. It's true you can have different types of cloud cover that might not do that well for the shorter wave insulation (direct sunlight coming down) or the longer wave thermal radiation coming up - but we won't make that distinction here.

In the Winter, cloud insulation traps the heat in from draining to the sky, so it works against the ice thickening. However, growth in ice thickness slows down anyway as the ice gets thicker and so itself better insulates heat from escaping from the water underneath to the sky above. So the eventual ice thickness at the end of the freezing season won't have been affected too much by how much cloud cover there has been in the winter.

In the (late) Spring, at the start of the melt season, it's more of a balance between cloud stopping the thermal radiation going up and the cloud stopping the increasing amounts of sunlight from reaching the ice.

But by now, that balance should be progressively tipping in favor of the latter. Less clouds will allow more sunlight down to heat up the ice. Also, as the snow & ice on top begins to melt and the sunlight can begin to shine on liquid water, the ice will just be beginning to become less reflective and instead absorb a greater fraction of the incident solar energy.

    So what I'm suggesting is it's starting to become important to watch, e.g. Worldview, to see the amount of cloud cover over the central Arctic Basin.

 Less clouds also tends to correlate with high pressure. So we can also watch the forecasts for more high pressure.

   Concerning other heat sources that can melt the ice - warm winds and water being carried into the Arctic - the Summer also heats up that air and water more, & it brings bigger heat engines to potentially blow it into the Arctic basin.


   So it's been interesting already, but I hereby proclaim that the really interesting part of the melt season officially begins today.  :P
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 05:56:24 AM by slow wing »

johnm33

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #104 on: May 23, 2018, 11:39:21 PM »
Re ' underlying physics' https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg153218.html#msg153218
ATeam did this great animation which more or less illustrates what I was trying to say, I downloaded and slowed it down some if you do the same you'll see very little ice rotating back into the pack between the pole and Greenland, but when it does there always seems to be a concurrent flow through Nares.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=101142

Coffee Drinker

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #105 on: May 25, 2018, 05:11:32 AM »
Apparently there is still good snow cover in Newfoundland and large parts of Quebec. Hard to imagine considering its end of May and their latitude (same as Paris for example).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=47&run=18&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #106 on: May 25, 2018, 03:09:10 PM »
We know that SWE is historically high for this region. I am not sure if this is true for extent.

The comment about this area being the same latitude as Paris is appropriately meaningless as it ignores entirely the climate of the planet.

Daniel B.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #107 on: May 25, 2018, 03:58:02 PM »
Grand Falls, Newfoundland received 30 cm of snow yesterday, with the possibility of more tonight. 

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #108 on: May 25, 2018, 04:27:49 PM »
The comment about this area being the same latitude as Paris is appropriately meaningless as it ignores entirely the climate of the planet.

I'm not sure how a factual statement can be "meaningless", and "the climate of the planet" is exactly what the factual statement regarding latitude is highlighting, i.e. how the oceans can have vastly different effects on areas receiving the same amount of solar irradiation on a yearly basis. Which is of course extremely topical for our discussions on the future of sea ice.

So perhaps it should have been in another thread, e.g. "highly meaningful melting season chatter".

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #109 on: May 25, 2018, 04:56:27 PM »
Grand Falls, Newfoundland received 30 cm of snow yesterday, with the possibility of more tonight.

I suspect this is unusual although not certain as I don't follow weather there. It could also very well be a new normal for this region as our climate changes.

(Now I've gone and done it and actually read one of your comments.)  :o

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #110 on: May 25, 2018, 05:13:58 PM »
We know that SWE is historically high for this region. I am not sure if this is true for extent.

The attached image (part)  from https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current shows that the NE corner of Canada has both extent well above average (indicated by the red line) and above average depth. Parts of Eurasia are the same, both being the remains of a somewhat unique snowfall event over winter 2017-18.

Hudson Sea has been slow to melt, and even the St. Lawrence melt has stalled over the last couple of weeks, perhaps as a result of the persistent cold in that part of N. America.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #111 on: May 25, 2018, 05:31:22 PM »
...Hudson Sea has been slow to melt, and even the St. Lawrence melt has stalled over the last couple of weeks, perhaps as a result of the persistent cold in that part of N. America.

I've been thinking of WACCy weather as the land just warming slower than the ocean, but it is true there will be more snowfall, so I guess it can be more unstable too.

Ktb

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #112 on: June 02, 2018, 03:47:47 PM »
The Slater projection has been given the appropriate TLC and is functional once again. Currently predicting extent of 7.62 million km^2 on July 22

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #113 on: June 16, 2018, 08:39:49 AM »
Anybody looking for a chilling summer read could do worse than checking out Dan Simmons' "The Terror" based on the Franklin expedition.

It's actually a very good book and (except for the occasional supernatural monster) feels very authentic.

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #114 on: June 16, 2018, 09:01:07 PM »
Anybody looking for a chilling summer read could do worse than checking out Dan Simmons' "The Terror" based on the Franklin expedition.

It's actually a very good book and (except for the occasional supernatural monster) feels very authentic.

The TV series is surprisingly excellent, as well. Great acting, and they really nailed the ambiance, too.

For those who don't know (although considering this forum, most here probably do), the title is a ship's name: HMS Terror, which was the 2nd ship (along with HMS Erebus) of the Franklin expedition, seeking the northwest passage in 1845... but never returned.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #115 on: July 25, 2018, 08:08:23 PM »
I've been thinking. Bad idea.

Lots of stuff as usual about June cliffs, July Cliffs, August cliffs (no doubt to come) and so on.

But I am thinking is not the story "A Winters Tale". Looking at seas like the Bering and Barents, the biggest losses are in winter ice. So I've had a look at freezing seasons over the last decade or so from JAXA extent data.

It would seem that in the last few years freeze has dropped quite significantly. Here is the table that includes a reckless look forward to the 2019 maximum.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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RealityCheck

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #116 on: July 28, 2018, 08:00:40 AM »

It would seem that in the last few years freeze has dropped quite significantly. Here is the table that includes a reckless look forward to the 2019 maximum.

Hi Gerontocrat. You assume 4.7m km2 minimum for 2018, if my basic maths are correct? Which is a fair starting point I reckon alright...
So I also assume this is another 'theory that belongs to me'...of yours, of course! If you're right, you could be called prophetic in 8 months time... :)
Sic transit gloria mundi

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #117 on: July 28, 2018, 01:19:35 PM »
I think you are spot on. The long term trend towards warmer winters and weaker freeze is setting the stage for a truly exciting melt season sometime in the next few years. And SIE is only part of the story as average thickness at maximum is shrinking as well.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #118 on: July 28, 2018, 01:33:03 PM »
Hullo Reality and Shared. (We are on first name terms?)

Thanks for the comments. I am still looking at the methodology as I did the work very late after a long day.  I should have done the work using NSIDC extent and area data to go back to 1979.  I have also made a mirror image of the NSIDC daily extent and area spreadsheets with daily PIOMAS data. I wonder if the volume data will show a similar outcome.

But all that will have to wait a bit - maybe after July data comes out. Not enough hours in the day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RealityCheck

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #119 on: July 28, 2018, 03:03:21 PM »
Thanks Gerontocrat
I am happy to go by RC...:)
RC
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Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #120 on: July 28, 2018, 06:28:47 PM »
I'm good with SH.

CalamityCountdown

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #121 on: July 28, 2018, 07:49:57 PM »
It appears the Santa's North Pole workshop may be developing a serious tilt, as the ice seems be becoming a bit slushy at the North Pole. But, on a serious note, the change between the image Gerontocrat posted 2 days ago  (Reply #2352 on: July 26, 2018 on the 2018 Season Melting thread) and today's NSIDC Sea Ice Concentration map show a stunning degree of change around the North Pole hole and throughout much of the Arctic.

Compare to the Ice Concentration map from 2 days ago
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg164597.html#msg164597

uniquorn

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #122 on: August 09, 2018, 01:40:53 AM »
Windy has a rather ominous forecast for next friday

Ktb

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #123 on: August 09, 2018, 09:29:00 AM »
I would just like to point out that the common misconception "sea ice melting will not raise sea level" is just so, a misconception.

The paper The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level by Peter D. Noerdlinger and Kay R. Brower, circa 2007. The paper was published in Geophysical Journal International.

The two key quotes: "It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water." and "If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm."

So while the complete melting of all arctic and antarctic sea ice would result in a negligible (compared to Greenland and Antarctica) 4cm rise in global sea level; we know that this could not take place as even with a BOE in the arctic, we would have another 18+million KM^2 in the antarctic.

https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/170/1/145/2019346 -- the full paper for those interested.


oren

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #124 on: August 09, 2018, 10:42:20 AM »
The two key quotes: "It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water." and "If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm."
So I just read this, I know basically nothing on the subject. But what I couldn't manage to verify is whether they took into account the small freshening of the ocean while the salinization of the meltwater takes place, and whether it might compensate for the claimed volume increase.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #125 on: August 09, 2018, 02:02:01 PM »
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #126 on: August 09, 2018, 02:24:33 PM »
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

That graph had me confused - at first I thought, "hang on, ice begins to sink again before reaching -10 centigrades?"

But there is a discontinuity that is not very clearly marked, the vertical (y) axis should be broken and not continuous.

harpy

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #127 on: August 09, 2018, 05:59:42 PM »
Is there an updated sea ice concentration graph for August 9th?

Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #128 on: August 10, 2018, 03:34:37 AM »
If that graph is correct, then I learned something new that I should have known. Is the sea level change due to the annual melt/freeze cycle measured anywhere?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Phil.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #129 on: August 10, 2018, 05:06:50 AM »
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

This is for freshwater not seawater which has maximum density at the freezing point, here's the data for seawater:

http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/gifimages/dens.gif

Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #130 on: August 10, 2018, 02:03:47 PM »
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

This is for freshwater not seawater which has maximum density at the freezing point, here's the data for seawater:

http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/gifimages/dens.gif

OK then, any water temperature above freezing makes a difference.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #131 on: August 10, 2018, 02:12:24 PM »
If that graph is correct, then I learned something new that I should have known. Is the sea level change due to the annual melt/freeze cycle measured anywhere?

The change due to the cycle is probably too small to measure, but the change due to the change in ocean temperature has been the main cause of sea level rise.

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/impacts/causes-of-sea-level-rise.html

Quote
Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #132 on: August 10, 2018, 06:39:08 PM »
There was some 'discussion' about the effect smoke had on the Arctic, specifically, if smoky air was 'warmed' due to the source of the smoke (here and earlier) with a recommendation to redirect here.  So, I did some internet searching.  Nothing about smoky air being warm, but there was this gem from ScienceDaily:
Quote
...
Highly sensitive clouds

The research team found that clouds in the Arctic were two to eight times more sensitive to air pollution than clouds at other latitudes. They don't know for sure why yet, but hypothesize it may have to do with the stillness of the Arctic air mass. Without the air turbulence seen at mid-latitudes, the Arctic air can be easily perturbed by airborne particulates.

One factor the clouds were not sensitive to, however, was smoke from forest fires. "It's not that forest fires don't have the potential," Garrett says, "it's just that the plumes from these fires didn't end up in the same place as clouds." Air pollution attributable to human activities outpaced the influence of forest fires on Arctic clouds by a factor of around 100:1.
But then I found this:
Smoke Plumes and Temperature Inversions
Quote

...
In fact, it [dry smoky air] cools at around 10C over the first kilometer above the ground. This cooling rate is known as the dry adiabatic lapse rate. This is the rate of cooling expected if we were to lift any parcel of dry air vertically. Through the concepts of buoyancy and convective instability, any parcel that is warmer than ambient air will accelerate upward on it’s own, any parcel that is cooler than the ambient air will accelerate downward on it’s own, and any parcel the same temperature as the ambient air will continue to do whatever it is doing.

At around 800-millibars [in the studied example] the temperature stops cooling as we increase height. In fact, it remains the same or even warms slightly! This warming with height is known as a temperature inversion, or inversion for short. I’ve circled this temperature inversion below.

So what does this have to do with the smoke plume? Well, the smoke from the fire acts like a parcel of dry air. This means that for every one kilometer above the ground, the temperature of the smoke would be expected to cool 10C. (In reality the temperature of the smoke would most likely cool at a slightly faster rate due to processes such as turbulent mixing.) If we were to assume that the temperature of the smoke was approximately the same temperature as the ambient temperature, or slightly warmer, we would expect the smoke to accelerate upward. However, as the smoke accelerates upward it begins to cool, as we previously mentioned. It continues to rise because it is approximately the same temperature as the air surrounding it, so it will remain doing what it had been doing (which was rising).

Eventually the smoke will reach the height of the temperature inversion and become colder than the air surrounding it. At this point the smoke will begin to descend until it reaches an altitude where it is in equilibrium with the ambient air temperature, typically at or slightly below the height of the temperature inversion. At this point the smoke will begin to spread out horizontally instead of vertically, frequently being blow in a specific direction by the wind, as was the case yesterday evening.

So, by seeing smoke plumes spread horizontally, instead of vertically, one is actually visualizing the altitude of a temperature inversions.
...
My take from this:  smoke over the Arctic Ocean is not 'warm'.

In the long run, I've read of the concern that soot on ice will cause it to melt faster, helping to decimate MYI (and Greenland ice) which have more time to accumulate soot than does FYI.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #133 on: August 10, 2018, 06:48:43 PM »
Thanks for this very erudite answer Tor!

As for particulates falling on the ice, I´ve noticed a few times over the years that the ice in the Berings and EES seas become striated in spring/early summer, with variously brown bands getting darker as you get nearer the ice edge. I've often wondered if this was soot from forest fires being exposed as the overlying snow cover melts, but I'm not at all sure that this is the case.

Found an example from June 10th 2016, Bering strait to the left.

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #134 on: August 10, 2018, 06:49:14 PM »
We cold smoke salmon here all the time.  :P

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #135 on: August 10, 2018, 09:52:49 PM »
Looking around Sentinel Playground (atmospheric correction, gain: .4; gamma .8 ), I noticed two floes in the Lincoln Sea, about the same size, close to each other, but with very different appearance.  Both have what I understand are blue melt ponds, same scale (lower right corners), same date (August 9), but different texture: "A" seems to have quite consistent parallel lineatiosn (mostly near horizontal, but near vertical in lower portions of the image) and cracks that appear 'about to go'.  "B" has what appear to be several 'old' floes very well glued together.

I don't know enough to draw 'significant' conclusions.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #136 on: August 15, 2018, 09:28:53 PM »
I can't say what I want to say over in the data thread so....

War is Peace
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Ranman99

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #137 on: August 16, 2018, 09:41:21 AM »
Reminds me that 2 + 2 = a slice of pie ;-)
Randy Fitton

johnm33

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Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #139 on: August 26, 2018, 12:35:59 AM »
Bounce...

From the data thread...

That would be a fine analysis if you ignored the Battle of the Bulge on the Atlantic Front.

Battle of the Bulge ... I like it.

I was rather fond of the analogy, but unfortunately, I think the Nazi are going to win the war.

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #140 on: August 27, 2018, 06:09:47 PM »
 8)  ::)  8)  went to a prog rock concert on weekend and didn't drink a drop, these things you do when you get older. Still couldn't make out the lyrics. The venue started to get crowded as there was a famous (in Finland) poprock band coming up so biked home the 4 miles on a cool tailwind evening breeze. Summers here can be nice, too.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #141 on: October 14, 2018, 05:57:39 PM »
A little Time Section Plot I asked ESRL to make for me.

("You may use the images produced from this page in publications, but we ask that you acknowledge us in this manner: Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.")