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Author Topic: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.  (Read 37975 times)

grixm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #450 on: August 09, 2019, 08:44:46 AM »
Eye of a hurricane? No, this strange looking cloud is located in Baffin Bay!


binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #451 on: August 09, 2019, 09:01:55 AM »
Aliens?

dnem

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #452 on: August 09, 2019, 05:20:41 PM »
Killian wrote on the 2012 vs 2019 thread:

"You mean 7 years of data isn't enough to predict weather? That would b a wild assertion given the short-term nature of weather forecasting. I'm assuming you mean seven years of weather is not enough to forecast climate?

Either way, this would be incorrect. First, in any given year, the majore forcing for the ASI minima is weather, but overall the climatic changes are setting the context. I would suggest that climate forcing is changing so fast and at such magnitude, it is having noticeable yearly effects. Still, most of the year-to-year differences will be weather. Climate is found in the trends."

Sorry Killian, this statement makes no sense. Of course seven years is not enough to generate climatological data from which to predict the weather. Not even close.  No idea what you're trying to say.  The issue at hand was about the statistical validity of tossing out 2012 as an outlier when trying to think about what may be to come for the arctic.  The arctic is a rapidly transitioning system and there is no valid way to make predictions about what the next few years may bring.  We can look back at the years since 2007 and make some informed guesses.  That's about it.

Just look at Zach's heat chart of monthly ranks.  After two cold, cloudy Julys folks were ready to declare a new trend.  Not so much.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #453 on: August 12, 2019, 08:51:46 PM »
There has been comment here and there about how the very high SSTs might delay the onset of freezing, both timing and speed.

My guess is there is a correlation between accumulated AWP and SSTs. Is there a correlation beteen AWP and SSTs and the beginning & speed of the freezing season? I had a quick look.

- couldn't find Arctic SST anomaly maps for late Arctic Summer over recent years,
- but we have Tealight's AWP anomaly graphs. 2012 and 2016 are the years with abnormally high cumulative AWP anomaly, 2016 being the highest.

So also tweaked a graph to show Arctic Sea Ice Extent August to December, highlighting 2012  and 2016. In neither year was there a stretching out of the minimum. Rather the reverse. But 2016 does show really slow refreeze from late October to early December.

2019 looks like being a new record year for Cumulative AWP anomaly. So if there is an effect, when will it take effect and how long and how significant will it be?



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DrTskoul

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #454 on: August 12, 2019, 09:19:31 PM »
If only one could calculate the "actualized" AWP...

FishOutofWater

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #455 on: August 12, 2019, 09:28:18 PM »
AWP and SST anomalies should directly correlate and it would be disturbing if there was no correlation. Obviously, there are other factors related to winds, currents and initial conditions, but the correlation looks strong this year. If that extra heat doesn't delay freezing, there's going to be a lot of heat stored below the surface of the ice. It a good bet we'll see a combination of the two.


philopek

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #456 on: August 12, 2019, 09:33:35 PM »
In neither year was there a stretching out of the minimum. Rather the reverse. But 2016 does

Great job as always, thanks.

As to the "reverse" part, that makes totally sense since the less ice remains, the more retreated, speak north, is the ice edge and therefore some of the open water will be exposed to really cold conditions way earlier than farther south.

In addition to that, the last stretch of melted ice, and the faster it melted the more is this the case, must have a significantly lower salinity due to the only recently melted ice that is less saline and recently melted regions are most probably a bit cooler SST wise than the stretches that melted earlier and had time to mix, increase salinity and eventually got some sunlight.

Those two factors and perhaps a few others make it somehow logical that the melt onset is a bit earlier and also covering a wider area a bit quicker to begin with. A later slow down like in 2016 makes also sense since the excess systemic (global) warmth with warmer winds and warmer ocean currents reaching farther north would  explain such a slowdown to quite some extent.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 11:21:10 AM by philopek »

oren

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #457 on: August 12, 2019, 10:57:31 PM »
What philopek said. 2016 had a quick initial refreeze due to there being open water very far north and in the middle of the pack. Later it had a terrible refreeze, especially in the Chukchi.

In addition, check out 2018's strange behavior in October in the CAB. After being a mediocre year in mid-Sept, it broke records in mid-Oct.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 06:09:04 AM by oren »

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #458 on: August 13, 2019, 06:00:14 AM »
Great job Gerontocrat! And I agree with what philopek said.

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #459 on: August 13, 2019, 11:07:17 AM »
Yep, philopek nailed it.

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #460 on: August 13, 2019, 12:43:17 PM »
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #461 on: August 13, 2019, 03:15:11 PM »
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.

Rammb's Natural Colors are working again FWIW for your needs, there are interesting news
i.e. McLure and more ;)

CalamityCountdown

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #462 on: August 15, 2019, 01:13:22 AM »
This is probably a silly analogy, but in comparing 2019 to 2012, the two upcoming dates of century drops in 2012 remind me of an elite marathoner that throws 4:30 miles at his (or her) opponent to try an shake them off. If 2019 extent stays close to 2012 extent through the two upcoming centuries, this melt season could eventually end up with more days at satellite era record lows. Scary times.   (Chart credit: Gerontocrat)

DrTskoul

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #463 on: August 15, 2019, 01:16:28 AM »
2019, still hangs on... let's see how much steam is left...

bluice

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #464 on: August 15, 2019, 09:38:27 AM »
Not much has changed since June regarding the minimum extent record. 2019 is going for the 2nd place, but has a small chance of beating 2012's record.
In PIOMAS we trust

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #465 on: August 15, 2019, 11:00:28 AM »
.. or as I would say .. not much has changed since March .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #466 on: August 15, 2019, 07:19:57 PM »
.. or as I would say .. not much has changed since March .. b.c.
Just keeps marching on.  ;D

pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #467 on: August 15, 2019, 07:29:03 PM »
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.

SAME HERE!! Everything is down at the moment and it's killing me. The barrow ice cam hasn't updated since 8/1 and even this one isn't updated:

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

If I actually have to work at work today I'm going to be quite unhappy.
pls!

DrTskoul

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #468 on: August 15, 2019, 08:18:01 PM »
... oh the shakes and the chills...  ;D ;D

sark

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #469 on: August 16, 2019, 07:07:35 AM »
What's the wave called that precesses about the North Pole about once every 7 days?
I am not a scientist

petm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #470 on: Today at 09:03:33 PM »
But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.

As far as I understand it, entanglement does not involve propagation but simply uncovering a pre-existing state. But I'm no quantum physicist.

The reason that I mention water waves is that presumably that's how melt water is moved around the oceans.

Edit: This is relevant, showing a correlation of increased local/regional sea-level with increased river discharge: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805428115 .