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Author Topic: Freeform season chatter and light commentary  (Read 132344 times)

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #600 on: July 20, 2020, 01:46:18 PM »
I'd been keeping an eye on that little crescent for some days . Since I spotted it it has lost a little weight and donned a sombrero . An act of attempted concealment by the aliens ?  b.c.
It looks like the aliens heard me last night and packed their bags upon their discovery. The crescent is falling apart...

Currents was a good explanation for this weird event, but that must have been a very strong and persistent current. So I'm not a 100% convinced yet that this is the entire explanation. Is there any other explanation possible beside currents and aliens?

Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #601 on: July 20, 2020, 01:48:08 PM »
aliens heard me last night

See, i told you to keep quiet, didn't i?? ;)  ;D

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #602 on: July 20, 2020, 02:08:21 PM »
aliens heard me last night

See, i told you to keep quiet, didn't i?? ;) ;D
I didn't say a word... How am I supposed to know they can read?  :-\
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #603 on: July 20, 2020, 02:15:54 PM »
They could have saved humanity and planet earth.  :'(

They started their engines now. In four days they are gone for good.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #604 on: July 20, 2020, 02:32:04 PM »
Thanks for that animation Blum. That really convinced me that it's fast ice on shoals, and not currents. Maybe a big piece of ice got stuck in between the shoals, making them more visible?


Maybe we could name these shoals the New Siberian Islands Barrier Reef?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #605 on: July 20, 2020, 03:01:31 PM »
Something seems to be holding back the ice in the ESS close to the New Siberian Islands, [...] *snip*

Perhaps uniquorn's thread has an answer - he has found a bunch of these there.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2890.0.html
Can you post that animation on Uniquorn's thread Blum?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #606 on: July 20, 2020, 03:16:20 PM »
Done! :)

And i learned something new. If you link a GIF with the IMG tag that is already hosted on the forum server, it would autoplay, no matter the canvas size.

jens

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #607 on: July 20, 2020, 03:54:19 PM »
In the melting season thread there is discussion about lack of aerosols causing "extraordinary melting season". Well, I'm not in position to tell, how much this has directly impacted 2020. I guess it has played some role. However, anyone expecting a 'recovery' would be in for a harsh awakening. "Lack of aerosols" is going to be the story for the entire 2020's, and all the 2020's melting seasons are going to be "extraordinary" - well, by the standards of 2010's of course, and earlier. That's what climate collapse is all about - it creates also the economic collapse. No-one can keep living in a bubble.

ajouis

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #608 on: July 20, 2020, 04:05:11 PM »
Jens, much of the production has restarted, so it probably will not be so bad, but we will have problems of deconcentration of aerosol from where it used to be https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/4/6/810/4191281
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #609 on: July 20, 2020, 04:10:34 PM »
In the melting season thread there is discussion about lack of aerosols causing "extraordinary melting season". Well, I'm not in position to tell, how much this has directly impacted 2020. I guess it has played some role. However, anyone expecting a 'recovery' would be in for a harsh awakening. "Lack of aerosols" is going to be the story for the entire 2020's, and all the 2020's melting seasons are going to be "extraordinary" - well, by the standards of 2010's of course, and earlier. That's what climate collapse is all about - it creates also the economic collapse. No-one can keep living in a bubble.
There is a connection between air pollution and the 1980's famine in Ethiopia. I always thought the drought was caused by a reduction of air pollution in Europe due to acid rain, but after a quick Google search just now it seems that I have been wrong about that for the last 30 years. Although there is a connection with air pollution. I'm sure more knowledgeable people than me know more about this.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2393-african-droughts-triggered-by-western-pollution/

Quote
Emissions spewed out by power stations and factories in North America and Europe may have sparked the severe droughts that have afflicted the Sahel region of Africa. The droughts have been among the worst the world has ever seen, and led to the infamous famines that crippled countries such as Ethiopia in the 1980s.

The cause appears to be the clouds of sulphur belched out alongside the soot, organic carbon, ammonium and nitrate produced when fossil fuels are burnt, according to researchers in Australia and Canada. As these compounds move through the atmosphere, they create aerosols that affect cloud formation, altering the temperature of the Earth’s surface and leading to dramatic shifts in regional weather patterns.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

jens

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #610 on: July 20, 2020, 04:21:41 PM »
By the way, one more quick comment. For example no-one says that 1980 melting season was affected by "lack of aerosols". Although by today's standards there were fewer people on the planet, less consumption, less pollution and fewer plane flights. "Less aerosols" has been the historic norm, when economic activity was smaller.

Hence I think soon the talk about aerosols will lose its meaning. We have entered a new era, and other factors take over in determining the outcome of melting seasons.

ajouis

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #611 on: July 20, 2020, 05:01:57 PM »
Freegrass, aerosols inhibit normal rain, so that might have been why they caused the famine (they also increase stormy events)
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #612 on: July 22, 2020, 05:35:46 PM »
Evidence of melting ribbons on the Laptev and Atlantic margins

Looking at Pagophilus's picture from the main thread, i had a thought about the whole compaction debate.

When ice foes melt, they disperse as their last act. How much of the ice pack is dispersing, melting ice floes that happen to fill the gaps between the thicker floes?

Maybe the ice is more dispersed than some people think, but it doesn't look like it?

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #613 on: July 25, 2020, 12:07:51 AM »
I don't really know where to put this since it's a work in progress, but hopefully it's a helpful map with all useful links to learn about the Arctic. I should add, this is very much a beta version and will be improved and I think there's a lot more I can do with it

Ohh the things you do at work when bored...

pls!

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #614 on: July 25, 2020, 12:18:06 AM »
Evidence of melting ribbons on the Laptev and Atlantic margins

Looking at Pagophilus's picture from the main thread, i had a thought about the whole compaction debate.

When ice foes melt, they disperse as their last act. How much of the ice pack is dispersing, melting ice floes that happen to fill the gaps between the thicker floes?

Maybe the ice is more dispersed than some people think, but it doesn't look like it?
it looks like it today @ the pole ..

 and enjoyed a look , Pearscot .. cheers .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #615 on: July 25, 2020, 12:26:20 AM »
Evidence of melting ribbons on the Laptev and Atlantic margins

Looking at Pagophilus's picture from the main thread, i had a thought about the whole compaction debate.

When ice foes melt, they disperse as their last act. How much of the ice pack is dispersing, melting ice floes that happen to fill the gaps between the thicker floes?

Maybe the ice is more dispersed than some people think, but it doesn't look like it?
it looks like it today @ the pole ..

 and enjoyed a look , Pearscot .. cheers .. b.c.

Awesome! Glad to hear! Did all of the links work? Please let me know if there are other sites you frequent which would be of use
pls!

bbr2315

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #616 on: July 25, 2020, 12:33:32 AM »
By the way, one more quick comment. For example no-one says that 1980 melting season was affected by "lack of aerosols". Although by today's standards there were fewer people on the planet, less consumption, less pollution and fewer plane flights. "Less aerosols" has been the historic norm, when economic activity was smaller.

Hence I think soon the talk about aerosols will lose its meaning. We have entered a new era, and other factors take over in determining the outcome of melting seasons.
1980 may very well have had higher aerosols than today. USSR had no standards and heavy industry is now much cleaner.

The Roman Republic's industrial processes were something like 10X dirtier than those post-industrial revolution.

https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/23b49247-3f16-48da-8fde-81938a6fd766/download/a67c4a96-688e-45eb-9a26-a15ea402282f

Interesting that the Younger Dryas resulted in a massive spike in Arsenic deposition....

morganism

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #617 on: July 25, 2020, 03:08:10 AM »
Not exactly an aerosol study, but some folks did some studies with satts and ground truth evaporation pans when the air traffic stopped on 9/11.

they found some increases in evap because of clearer skies iirc.

There was also one study done on cloud cover over the ocean from sea shipping traffic "contrails". they showed that the lowering of shipping, caused lower cloud formation. This they attrib to the ships wakes pushing up bio particles from the kelp islands.

I think those kelp islands are all gone now, because of the increased frequency of the ships, and intl trade. Maybe interesting to see if the shipping in the Arctic creates "contrails" above the algal blooms...
(saw that one in a print copy of Science News)

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #618 on: July 25, 2020, 03:14:07 AM »
For three days after September 11, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded commercial aircraft in the U.S., stranding travelers, hindering mail delivery and interrupting courier service, but for scientists at Penn State and the University of Wisconsin–Whitewater, the three-day shutdown provided a rare glimpse of the climate effects of jet contrails.

The change in the temperature difference was plus 1.1 degree Celsius, equal to plus 2 degrees Fahrenheit, above the 30-year long-term mean diurnal temperature range. The researchers compared the temperature ranges on these three days to those of the three days directly before Sept. 11 and the three days after Sept. 14, finding that the days before and after were similar, but that the three days in question differed by 1.8 degrees Celsius or 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/08/020808075457.htm

dnem

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #619 on: July 25, 2020, 11:47:46 PM »
I am literally waking up early and rushing downstairs to see the latest here. From time to time I quote A-Team who said a few years back that (paraphrasing) "a complete summer blow out could happen any year now." Is this the year?

Coffee Drinker

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #620 on: July 26, 2020, 09:04:51 AM »
Summer heat in Svalbard.

Quote
A NEW RECORD HIGH – AND IT’S NOT OVER YET: Longyearbyen hits 21.7C Saturday evening, topping previous all-time temperature of 21.3C set in 1979; high of 22C forecast Monday

http://icepeople.net/2020/07/25/a-new-record-high-and-its-not-over-yet-longyearbyen-hits-21-7c-saturday-evening-topping-previous-all-time-temperature-of-21-3c-set-in-1979-high-of-22c-forecast-monday/

ajouis

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #621 on: July 30, 2020, 06:10:27 PM »
https://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic
I don't know what model this forecast runs on but it is bad, don't use it
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #622 on: July 30, 2020, 07:46:03 PM »
This may be a shaggy dog story.

I was washing he dishes and used too much liquid so at the end loads of bubbles in the sink.

I positioned the tap (faucet) so the water flowed from the edge of the sink across the base. Lo & behold - what happened.

A gyre formed in the sink and most of tbe bubbles formed a rotating circle while the rest formed a stationary ledge along one side of the sink. It was a picture of the Sea Ice in the main Arctic Basin. What amazed me was that it was stable, the soap bubbles refusing to dissipate down the plughole.

But when I changed the direction of the water flow from the tap to another edge of the basin, the bubble gyre collapsed as did the bubble ledge.

So there you are, Gerontocat's speculation that belongs to me of the future of the Ice in the Arctic Basin.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Bugalugs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #623 on: August 01, 2020, 03:30:57 AM »
I disagree with the Swiss cheese comparison, it's more of a stilton.

Pagophilus

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #624 on: August 01, 2020, 03:39:58 AM »
I disagree with the Swiss cheese comparison, it's more of a stilton.

You know, I think you may be right! 

But think of what this is going to do to the scientific terminology, though...  Stiltonification..?  Could seem a bit cheesy to some people.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 04:48:27 AM by Pagophilus »

Pmt111500

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #625 on: August 01, 2020, 03:43:35 AM »
Swiss cheese is made with two strains of cheese bacteria so the parable is excellent, swiss cheese bacteria act as plumes of hotter water... --> tries to go on to parable other types of cheeses to other types of ice. White mould cheese with the crust - multiyear ice, blue cheese- leads and pressure ridges. Gorgonzola - stacking ice slabs, peppered cheese, soft cheese...

Thanks. :)

« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 04:48:15 AM by Pmt111500 »

D-Penguin

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #626 on: August 01, 2020, 05:58:31 AM »
Swiss cheese is made with two strains of cheese bacteria so the parable is excellent, swiss cheese bacteria act as plumes of hotter water... --> tries to go on to parable other types of cheeses to other types of ice. White mould cheese with the crust - multiyear ice, blue cheese- leads and pressure ridges. Gorgonzola - stacking ice slabs, peppered cheese, soft cheese...

Thanks. :)

 :) :) :) Great imagination.

It would be interesting if more postings showed this sort of creative thinking and applied it to 2020 and how it might be viewed retrospectively as a significant year for the future evolution of ASI.

+1 for imagination and creative thinking
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

Telihod

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #627 on: August 01, 2020, 09:40:51 AM »
It's funny how the cc deniers always come up with the one measure out of twenty that supports their argument that the ice isn't melting.
If there is a high pressure, then the ice isn't melting, it's compacting.
If there is a low pressure and the ice is spreading out: it's obvious that the ice isn't melting, because extent numbers aren't freefalling.
MFW reading their comments:

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #628 on: August 01, 2020, 04:18:33 PM »
It's funny how the cc deniers always come up with the one measure out of twenty that supports their argument that the ice isn't melting.
If there is a high pressure, then the ice isn't melting, it's compacting.
If there is a low pressure and the ice is spreading out: it's obvious that the ice isn't melting, because extent numbers aren't freefalling.
MFW reading their comments:


I did not know we had cc deniers on ASIF looking at charts/graphs in front of there eyeballs all season showing the record reductions in summer ice extent compared to the past and record season anomalous factors, denying the Climate Crisis today is like being a Flat earther!

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #629 on: August 01, 2020, 05:55:50 PM »
I'm going to wait for PIOMAS data to come out before making any minimum predictions. I must check if the recent extent slowdowns are actually caused by ice not melting or if it's dispersion fooling the numbers.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #630 on: August 01, 2020, 07:37:01 PM »
Glennbuck,
I'm glad you acknowledge that New Zealand, God's Own, is at (o at least very near) the top of the world!   :)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #631 on: August 01, 2020, 08:31:31 PM »
It's funny how the cc deniers always come up with the one measure out of twenty that supports their argument that the ice isn't melting.
If there is a high pressure, then the ice isn't melting, it's compacting.
If there is a low pressure and the ice is spreading out: it's obvious that the ice isn't melting, because extent numbers aren't freefalling.
MFW reading their comments:



Great and important post and it drives me nuts every day, have to hold back with the power of a heavy truck.

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #632 on: August 01, 2020, 09:45:57 PM »
Bit of good news for the day  :D

Climate change hits back, Svalbard coal mine flooded by melting glacier

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2020/07/coal-mine-flooded-melting-glacier

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #633 on: August 12, 2020, 09:23:51 AM »
Ode to the Beaufort Sea, the CAB & the permafrost, and I hope not the U.S. electorate
    William Butler Yeats - (though he did not know that was the topic or the title when he wrote it)

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre   
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   
Are full of passionate intensity."
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 09:29:05 AM by Glen Koehler »

jens

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #634 on: August 12, 2020, 10:06:46 AM »
It has been quite interesting to follow this melting season, the weather information and expectations of people. And how the reality matches up with what is being talked about.

July melting event was really impressive. At one point more than 600k advantage. But then a slow-down (which was expected too). But this slow-down has been really extreme, it has lasted from late July all the way down to now. Which means 2020 has blown all of its advantage it had and is down to 3rd.

Basically the situation now is that people are awaiting that extent losses should speed up basically any day now. Just like July melting event was eagerly awaited throughout basically the entire May and June. Will it happen? Will it happen to the extent it is expected to happen? Or more will happen?

About one month to go till about the expected minimum. Let's see what happens. Surely some twist and turn should still be on the way. But if the minimum ends up above 4M km2, then I have to say that would certainly be something I wouldn't have expected in mid-July and would have to reflect a bit on that.

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #635 on: August 12, 2020, 02:29:57 PM »
It has been quite interesting to follow this melting season, the weather information and expectations of people. And how the reality matches up with what is being talked about.

July melting event was really impressive. At one point more than 600k advantage. But then a slow-down (which was expected too). But this slow-down has been really extreme, it has lasted from late July all the way down to now. Which means 2020 has blown all of its advantage it had and is down to 3rd.

Basically the situation now is that people are awaiting that extent losses should speed up basically any day now. Just like July melting event was eagerly awaited throughout basically the entire May and June. Will it happen? Will it happen to the extent it is expected to happen? Or more will happen?

About one month to go till about the expected minimum. Let's see what happens. Surely some twist and turn should still be on the way. But if the minimum ends up above 4M km2, then I have to say that would certainly be something I wouldn't have expected in mid-July and would have to reflect a bit on that.

I stick to my 2nd place predection made in march/april and he upcoming drops will ensure exactly that while i doubt a higher than 50% chance for beating 2012 but it's possible if the beaufort imminent large collapse happens at the upper end of the possible range.

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #636 on: August 12, 2020, 09:00:48 PM »
Wdmn, the phase change itself needs energy.
Link >> http://hydrogen.physik.uni-wuppertal.de/hyperphysics/hyperphysics/hbase/thermo/phase.html

     Sorry, no facts to add to the question, but here some perspectives for those of us who don't work with ice physics every day. 

      It always shocks me when reminded that the heat exchange between frozen vs. melted ice is 80% of the heat energy change required to change water temperature from 0C to 100C.

      That huge energy budget to melt ice has been a defense mechanism for preserving the Arctic sea ice.  Consider the 75+% ice volume losses since 1979, the amount of heat input that required is huge.  As the Arctic loses that defensive wall (the ice phase transition energy requirement), the continued energy input into a decreasing portion of ice and an increasing portion of open water means that things will soon be getting even stranger even faster.

      All of us on ASIF are interested in seeing the volume minimum this year.  We don't get daily updates and images for volume like we do for extent and area, so volume gets a lot less discussion.  But it really is the key number (with a respectful nod to Area as the factor that directly affects albedo).   The 2020 minimum volume will almost certainly be closer to the 2012 record low than either extent or area.

       Thickness is also difficult to measure and visualize.  But it also deserves more respect.  Lots of discussion recently about slow down in extent and area trends, with simultaneous comments about how terrible the ice looks.  It is too bad we don't have regular reports and images about qualitative measures of ice condition like thickness, mechanical strength, continuity etc. Concentration is a qualitative measure of ice pack condition, but it is highly variable and apparently is difficult to accurately measure because of sensor errors caused by water on the ice surface and water vapor in the air.

       One of the key things I've learned this year is to mentally blur the dark areas on the much appreciated and repeatedly viewed AMSR2, U. Bremen, U. Hamburg, and Hycom animations posted by ArticMelt, Blumenkraft, Born from the Void, and others.  I think it was a great idea somebody had on the 2020 Melt Season thread to create  5-day average values for such images as a way to smudge some of the spurious readings and highlight what are the more likely true indications of low-concentration and softening ice

       The 2020 story seems to continue the narrative from 2019  -- continued decline but no replacement of the 2012 record-low quantitative measurements, with progressive rot in the qualitative impressions of ice condition.  Continuation of that trend leads to a point where ice thickness and qualitative melt resistance, exacerbated by increased forces of albedo, ice mobility, fracturing (and thus surface area and lateral melt by contact with ocean water as noted by JD Allen) reach a tipping point at which the right conditions create a major "Poof Event" where huge number of extent and area km2 disappear in a short time period. 

       The math backs up this theoretical scenario.  At some point the flatter Extent decline curve has to catchup to the steeper Volume decline curve.  The closer to the end point at which that occurs, the more radically steep the change in Extnet curve has to be.  I thought that Exent would begin that catch up process by now, but I've been wrong about that so far.  Thickness going below 1 meter could be a key tipping point for that Extent decline acceleration to occur.  We are very close to reaching that tipping point. 
       
       Of course, it isn't a smooth incremental process.  What happens in the real world depends on the chaotic vagaries of the weather.  And the early 2020 melt season seems to have been a doozy among those vagaries.  The rot evident in the former MYI bastion of the Ellesmere - Greenland - North Pole triangle is notable as both a qualitative and quantitative highlight of 2020 so far.   

       In earlier years, for a total melt season to reach "Poof Event" intensity would have required prolonged, extreme and unusual conditions.  But with each year of progressive qualitative decline (i.e. ice pack rot), the conditions required for a severe melting event to occur become less extreme and less far beyond the normal range, and thus more likely to occur.  That is exacerbated by the fact that as the Arctic continues to warm, the "normal range" for the amount of energy in melting events increases, thus making the required intensity for a catastrophic "Poof Event" even more likely to occur.

      As for 2020, it ain't over til the fat lady sings.  The amount of low-resistance ice hovering just over the 15% concentration threshold to be counted as a 100% extent pixel could still result in some dramatic drop days.  IMHO, those values, while interesting to watch, are the daily news that is more noise than signal.  The signal is the qualitative decline in ASI overall and the increasingly dire setup for a knockout punch. 

      I didn't mean for this reply to get so long.  Oren, if this is the wrong thread for a sermon, please relocate as needed.  Here is some more positive news - Tesla Inc.'s Battery Day, scheduled for Sept. 22, could bring big news to help us dig out of this mess.  Getting back to doom and gloom, it will be interesting to see what adjectives Friv has saved up for the first big Poof Event.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 10:40:45 PM by Glen Koehler »

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #637 on: August 13, 2020, 07:00:19 AM »
Moved Glen's post here. It's a great post but did not belong in the basic melting physics thread.

D-Penguin

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #638 on: August 13, 2020, 03:12:59 PM »
Wdmn, the phase change itself needs energy.
Link >> http://hydrogen.physik.uni-wuppertal.de/hyperphysics/hyperphysics/hbase/thermo/phase.html

    Sorry, no facts to add to the question, but here some perspectives for those of us who don't work with ice physics every day. 

   The signal is the qualitative decline in ASI overall and the increasingly dire setup for a knockout punch.
This 'analysis' by Glen https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg280814.html#msg280814 should be compulsory reading for all of us Arctic Ice pundits; logical and importantly, very well written.

IMHO it is the reference to the 'energy budget' that is the critical factor; it runs contrary to the Laws of Physics for heat to be accumulating and increasing within a 'closed' system (the Arctic Environment), without the change of state from frozen ice in that system to melted ice.

QUOTE from Glen... "What happens in the real world depends on the chaotic vagaries of the weather."

I have stated in previous postings that, "what happens outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic" and highlighted the importance of the 'degrading' Jet Stream in this context. I suggest that more attention to the status of the Jet Stream could be a useful and important metric for 'predicting' the 'chaotic vagaries of the weather'. I think that a reasonable interpretation of the Jet Stream projections, over the short term (say, + 5 days), could be informative where the North pointing tails of the Jet Stream equate to Heat Gain and South pointing tails equate to Heat Loss.

Links to graphics for today and today +5 Jet Stream:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/13/1800Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=1.69,90.94,304
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/18/0300Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=1.69,90.94,304

Unfortunately there is very little science related to the influence of the Jet Stream and its impact on Energy Balance within the Polar Region.

+1
A concise overview and very well constructed posting
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 03:53:05 AM by D-Penguin »
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #639 on: August 14, 2020, 12:10:41 AM »
What an eventful day in barrow!! Two (2) unique spottings. Hopefully everyone is gearing up for the socially distant harvest festival and will do up to 15 shots of cognac each and then burn a scare crow to emulate the Swedish midsummer festivals.
pls!

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #640 on: August 14, 2020, 03:27:50 AM »
the barrow bus is exactly like the except different

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #641 on: August 14, 2020, 04:37:28 AM »
Thank you for posting that documentary on the barrow bus. I can only assume that is the amount of elation all of the patrons felt aboard that vehicle.
pls!

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #642 on: August 14, 2020, 05:22:47 AM »
We just need confirmation on the information about the transportation from Barrow station.

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #643 on: August 15, 2020, 12:26:29 AM »
Yes we do need to confirm!

Wow, it sure is a busy day up in Barrow with all that sun out. Who knows what fresh adventures await the citizens there tomorrow.
pls!

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #644 on: August 15, 2020, 04:51:52 PM »
This doees'n look photoshopped at all, gnihihihi.

interstitial

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #645 on: August 16, 2020, 07:22:39 AM »
Yes we do need to confirm!

Wow, it sure is a busy day up in Barrow with all that sun out. Who knows what fresh adventures await the citizens there tomorrow.
The east siders have decided to block the road to prevent undesireables from entering.

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #646 on: August 16, 2020, 06:12:55 PM »
Still "No Data" for Aug. 15, 2020 available...


Like so often when things get interesting  :(

During times with little to no action data drop in steadily. Subjective judgment but
it's not totally sucked out of nothing.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #647 on: August 16, 2020, 10:06:24 PM »
A different way of looking at the Arctic... from Russia

http://www.aari.ru/main.php?lg=1&id=134
So the Russians see Arctic ice as being like a massive icicle overhead and Canadians see Arctic ice as being like a cap on the head.  For me it's "out of sight, out of ...", well, out of sight, anyway.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Aporia_filia

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #648 on: August 18, 2020, 11:37:34 AM »
I don't have enough knowledge, or time to improve it on these matters, but I have some experience sailing so...
There are a few discussions in the melting thread about currents, and tides. (Good to read the book posted in basic science). I just want to add some observations.
When you cross the Panama Channel is normal to see eddies forming when the different salinity waters encounter within the Channel.
Sailing south of Cape of Good Hope where cold and warm currents flow close one to the other, eddies can be seen and what is more important, waves can become crazy and very dangerous, implying a lot of mixing.
Wind flowing against a strong current can make enormous waves, even not being a very strong wind. Messina and Strait of Gibraltar are also dangerous for this.

These were not seen in the Arctic because of the ice cover, but I have no doubt that they are becoming part of the new picture.

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #649 on: August 22, 2020, 04:08:31 PM »
2020 is giving me non-stop reasons to play this song.