Freeform season chatter and light commentary

[Iceismylife]

NM also stands for No More off-topic, please. 

Please put off topic comments here.

[Juan C. García]

And it will be great if we keep this topic [without any specific subject] empty!!! 

[Iceismylife]

And it will be great if we keep this topic [without any specific subject] empty!!! 

If you click on the linked conversation you will see that it tends to clutter up a scientific discussion.  But put it here and we still have fun but not at the expense of disrupting a meaningful conversation.

[johnm33]

Interesting to see that particular cloud formation in the bottom right of this picture.



Anyone studying cloud formations in the arctic?

This is  reminiscent of some features usually seen well in to the melting season and further South. Close up it looks like a carpet pile and am I right in thinking it's streaming away from the area of high ice disintegration

I wondered about this type of cloud formation, I was thinking about tidal action at the time and found that wherever I expected to see evidence of tidal/current induced turbulence there was a strong likelyhood of this type of cloud streaming away from the ice edge. So I suspect that there's some residual spin/am in the water molecules even when they've undergone phase transition, and that that's responsible for these more or less coherent streamers. There's simply not enough timely images and too many variables to be confident it's the right explanation though.
Link to relevent image https://go.nasa.gov/2GCOxBs and one to when I would expect extreme tidal movements. https://go.nasa.gov/2FSIp6Z

[Shared Humanity]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

[epiphyte]

When I was this thread I though "At last! a thread on the meaninglessness whole-hemisphere extent as a marker of the transition between freezing and melting season!"

...but no. Nothing to see here - Carry on.

[SteveMDFP]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.

[Shared Humanity]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.

I said this just so I could use the phrase "hell freezes over" It seemed appropriate.

[Tor Bejnar]

The poor Devil; the one place that 'loves' heat is going to freeze over.  What an insult to evil.

[Dharma Rupa]

The poor Devil; the one place that 'loves' heat is going to freeze over.  What an insult to evil.

I gather you have never read Dante's Inferno (Hell).

[Daniel B.]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.

No doubt, the Congressmen will waffle with the wind.  After all, they did not support Trump during the 2016 primary season, and only support him begrudgingly in November.  Remember, Trump succeeded with minimal party support in 2016.  His success or failure in 2020, will be a result of his actions between now and then.  He was not well liked then, and no one expected him to win.  I would not make any speculation about the electorate at this time.

[Pmt111500]

In here it takes a long time until hell freezes over, but in Soviet Russia a long-time freeze over hell takes it until...

No. Doesn't compute.

[FishOutofWater]

FYI the cloud pattern caused by cold dry air flowing off the ice sheet over warm water is called "cloud streets". Cloud streets are a very common occurrence after cold air outbreaks over warm oceans and seas.

[Tor Bejnar]

You gather correctly, Dharma Rupa.

[johnm33]

FYI the cloud pattern caused by cold dry air flowing off the ice sheet over warm water is called "cloud streets". Cloud streets are a very common occurrence after cold air outbreaks over warm oceans and seas.

Now I know what they're called thanks, and that's [cold/dry airstream] a necessary condition, not a variable, and not of itself sufficient, as far as I can tell.

[Dharma Rupa]

You gather correctly, Dharma Rupa.

http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/

[Pmt111500]

On topic, the secular variations of weather, satellite overpass times and the possible measurement variance introduced by the tides on satellites and ocean make it so that we need about 15 days to find out when the average maximum of exent, that is a poor measure compared to area or volume, is. Thus the arctic weather is the only thing people would need to talk of Arctic ice and snow this time of the year, on the stall season. This of course requires an artificial definition. I would have to check the record to estimate a definition for this, but what I recall, a rather good definition for the beginning of the melt season defined solely by the values of extent could be f.e., to be vague enough, a seven day period of descending values of 5-day averages. This means at least 10-days may pass from the true beginning of the melt season until the beginning of melt season may be declared. This really awkward proposal of a formal definition for the end of the stall is of course bad since area and volune are not considered at all. Adoting this, or any other definition, would, in practise, mean that there should be a 'stall season'-thread that would in effect be a place for those discussions that are not about weather. At the same time though, the 'freezing season'- and the 'melt season'-threads should be open for all we know, a stall is a stall, and there's no knowing if an alien vessel blocks the sunlight reaching earth at the presumed end of the stall season.

I propose no changes on the system only Neven knows when the melting season-thread, which some people seem eager to open by themselves, actually opens. In fact, i think the above proposal of stall season might confuse people,  I mean, we in Finland pretty instinctively know when the winter is ending, or at least believe so, despite the occasional -10°C nights that still ensure the ice to be strong enough in the morning but not in afternoon, but this might not be case for those living in warmer climates. They might start to argue about the definition. Granted, arguments may occasionally be fun, but i thinks it's silly to suppose some benevolent alien race comes to our rescue.

[Tor Bejnar]

Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/

[Dharma Rupa]

Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/

Not interested in an argument over it, but I read Dante as a kid and don't remember having heard "When Hell freezes over" until years later -- so the phrase always seemed a bit odd to me.

[gerontocrat]

Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/

Not interested in an argument over it, but I read Dante as a kid and don't remember having heard "When Hell freezes over" until years later -- so the phrase always seemed a bit odd to me.

You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Anyway, origin is apparently USA late 19th Century, i.e. at least 550 years after Dante wrote The Divine Comedy

WHEN HELL FREEZES OVER

Origin: Late 19th Century, American English - This expression belongs to a small category of “hell” idioms, all referring to Hell as a place which will remain hot throughout eternity. It is an absolute and works well with ironic remarks such as, “a snow ball’s chance in Hell” or “it’ll be a cold day in Hell.”  All of these simply mean NEVER.

Usage:  Informal, spoken general American and Canadian English. Used for ironic negative emphasis (stressing the opposite of what you mean).

Idiomatic Meaning:  Emphatically stating that something will never, ever happen.

So, as you must know, the saying is in direct contradiction to Dante's vision of the 9th Circle of Hell - to whit:-

Ninth Circle (Treachery)

The last Ninth Circle of Hell is divided into 4 Rounds according to the seriousness of the sin though all residents are frozen in an icy lake. Those who committed more severe sin are deeper within the ice. Each of the 4 Rounds is named after an individual who personifies the sin.
Thus Round 1 is named Caina after Cain who killed his brother Abel,
Round 2 is named Antenora after Anthenor of Troy who was Priam’s counselor during the Trojan War,
Round 3 is named Ptolomaea after Ptolemy (son of Abubus),
while Round 4 is named Judecca after Judas Iscariot, the apostle who betrayed Jesus with a kiss.

[Shared Humanity]

On topic, the secular variations of weather, satellite overpass times and the possible measurement variance introduced by the tides on satellites and ocean make it so that we need about 15 days to find out when the average maximum of exent, that is a poor measure compared to area or volume, is. Thus the arctic weather is the only thing people would need to talk of Arctic ice and snow this time of the year, on the stall season. This of course requires an artificial definition. I would have to check the record to estimate a definition for this, but what I recall, a rather good definition for the beginning of the melt season defined solely by the values of extent could be f.e., to be vague enough, a seven day period of descending values of 5-day averages. This means at least 10-days may pass from the true beginning of the melt season until the beginning of melt season may be declared. This really awkward proposal of a formal definition for the end of the stall is of course bad since area and volune are not considered at all. Adoting this, or any other definition, would, in practise, mean that there should be a 'stall season'-thread that would in effect be a place for those discussions that are not about weather. At the same time though, the 'freezing season'- and the 'melt season'-threads should be open for all we know, a stall is a stall, and there's no knowing if an alien vessel blocks the sunlight reaching earth at the presumed end of the stall season.

I propose no changes on the system only Neven knows when the melting season-thread, which some people seem eager to open by themselves, actually opens. In fact, i think the above proposal of stall season might confuse people,  I mean, we in Finland pretty instinctively know when the winter is ending, or at least believe so, despite the occasional -10°C nights that still ensure the ice to be strong enough in the morning but not in afternoon, but this might not be case for those living in warmer climates. They might start to argue about the definition. Granted, arguments may occasionally be fun, but i thinks it's silly to suppose some benevolent alien race comes to our rescue.

This is bordering on meaningful and thus dangerously close to being off topic.

[wili]

 

I'll attempt to save the thread from drifting into meaningfulness, by diverting back into the mythological realm.

Hel was originally a Norse goddess who lived in a house on the north side of a hill with all doors and windows always open and always facing north. Those ancient (and probably most modern) Scandinavians knew something about positioning a house for maximum (or in this case minimum) solar warming benefit!

https://norse-mythology.org/gods-and-creatures/giants/hel/

[Dharma Rupa]

You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Not sure if I even started Paradise.  Probably bogged down in Purgatorio. I read a lot as a kid -- mostly, but not exclusively, SciFi.  We used books instead of insulation in the house.

[Iceismylife]

...
Hel was originally a Norse goddess who lived in a house on the north side of a hill with all doors and windows always open and always facing north.
...

That would make one hell of a date.

[Brigantine]

Happy Equinox everyone!

[gerontocrat]

You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Not sure if I even started Paradise.  Probably bogged down in Purgatorio. I read a lot as a kid -- mostly, but not exclusively, SciFi.  We used books instead of insulation in the house.

Books from my house as a kid:-

The Tarzan Books,
Hans Anderson and the Brothers Grimm,
The King James Bible (some super English in that one).

But there was the library. Failed a Geography exam because I read "The Grapes of Wrath" during lessons.

Sci_Fi - still convinced Hari Seldon is real. He cannot be dead. We need him.

[Dharma Rupa]

Sci_Fi - still convinced Hari Seldon is real. He cannot be dead. We need him.

The Mule ate him.

[Pmt111500]

Remembering Trantor, and wishing Elite Dangerous developers had the humour to insert also other SF-planets on their game.

[Iceismylife]

Happy Equinox everyone!

Sunrise for the north pole!!! 6 months to sunset. 

[Dharma Rupa]

Happy Equinox everyone!

Sunrise for the north pole!!! 6 months to sunset.

[Ktb]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

[Jim Hunt]

Anybody know what is going on there?

This may be relevant?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/09/in-memoriam-andrew-slater.html

[oren]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

[Ktb]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

[gerontocrat]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

I use windows 10 and google. Sometimes when opening a webpage, e.g environment canada snow, I see an outofdate graph. When I click "refresh" the up to date page appears. WHY? Not a clue.

[oren]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

You are correct, missed that.

[Dharma Rupa]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

I use windows 10 and google. Sometimes when opening a webpage, e.g environment canada snow, I see an outofdate graph. When I click "refresh" the up to date page appears. WHY? Not a clue.

Timestamps and caching.  The refresh flushes the cache.  Why the web server doesn't always update the timestamp?...well...my guess would be some sort of internal cache.

[Iceismylife]

The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

You are correct, missed that.

It may need some maintaining that he is unable to do as he is late.

[Hautbois]

Any quick tips on how to scale graphs so they don't look too big and a bit blurry once posted?

[oren]

Any quick tips on how to scale graphs so they don't look too big and a bit blurry once posted?

Not sure if this is the right thread, but anyway: remember the forum limit of 700-pixel width. 600 even better. I scale my graphs in Excel, then I paste them to MS-Paint, and make sure they fit within the limits. If they don't, I rescale at the source and try again. Hope this helps.

[Iceismylife]

I think it's pretty clear that Wadhams shouldn't be taken seriously anymore.  He's promoting pseudo-scientific nonsense about ghosts, mediumship and paranormality as well as various conspiracy theories.  He seriously believes that he has precognitive dreams in which he can foresee future events.  That is probably the reason for the unscientific predictions that he has been making in recent years (e.g. here), which are an easy target for climate deniers who use extremists like Wadhams to ridiculize the entire climate science community.

The conversation that this comment sparked and this comment mint belong here.

Having said that.

Music isn't good science. Apply the scientific method to the generation of new music and you get crap.  That doesn't mean that music isn't real.  When alchemy was tossed in favor of chemistry a lot of real stuff was tossed with some stuff that wasn't real.

Faith healing. The placebo effect.  Feeling pain when the storms are coming. There is an aspect of weather that isn't in the models. A good faith healer should be able to affect the weather.  Applying the scientific method to weather manipulation by a faith healer won't get meaningful results. But take a look at California's water year. Did it get much wetter starting about the start of February?  Then did it get warmer and stay wet? A four S.D. event followed by an over 5 S.D. event in atmospheric angular momentum. You want an "act of god"  that would be it.

[litesong]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

Ah..... one step beyond eliminating term limits. Now, "don'T rump" only has to bluff God into allowing it to live a few thousand years. Maybe "don'T rump" can change its DNA to a Sequoia tree....more accurately, a Bristle Cone tree.

[johnm33]

I guess here's a good place for this one-off.
"A trio of satellites studying our planet's magnetic field have shown details of the steady swell of a magnetic field produced by the ocean's tides."
https://www.sciencealert.com/esa-swarm-satellite-map-ocean-tides-magnetic-field

[bbr2314]

If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

The Republicans are not supposed to serve this country. Neither are the Democrats. They are only supposed to serve the power-structure that they themselves have created. The divergence between government and people is inevitable when the purpose of the "liberal" state is to perpetuate its own existence regardless of the cost.

When you examine US politics through this lense it makes much more sense. Why don't they serve the people? Why don't the people care? Because it doesn't matter. The government is completely separate from the people, it has become an institution that perpetuates itself at the EXPENSE of the people.

This is less problematic in absolutism because there is no pretense. I.E., there is no illusory "freedom of speech," which is alleged to exist in liberalism but does not (anyone with actual $ is prevented from exercising their right either because their views are potentially unpopular and would undermine their $, or because they do not have channels to express their views. unless you own a media company, you do not have freedom of speech. And unless you own multiple media companies, your freedom of speech is still curtailed, as audience will abandon you if you do not parrot their own beliefs -- unless you control enough market share to force opinions/etc a la Murdoch). 

However, in "democracies" we see silly banter about how the government is supposedly based on the authority of the people and not those in control. And then this gives rise to the gaping disconnect between what a government in a democracy is "supposed" to be doing versus the actual on the ground happenings.

Republicans do not help the people because they are not supposed to. The Republicans help themselves. The Democrats are no different. In fact, they are the exact same, though they may pretend otherwise. The Democrats are equally in favor of continued unbridled consumerism -- in fact the band-aids of things like "emissions standards" which they supposedly favor only exist so that MORE automobiles can be created without the same amount of air pollution (regardless of the impact of their actual production).

[Pmt111500]

Reporting I saw the first butterfly of the season yesterday. I didn't see if it tried to induce any storms flapping by the south wall of the house. But if it did, it's of course too late to do anything about it. No reason to punish the bumblebees and honeybees for that. And too late to punish the individual specimen too, these things happen. Apologies to those possibly affected, but it was a fast and very surprising situation, so even if I had been prepared it's possible I wouldn't have had time to do anything about it. Pretty sure it didn't carry anything.

[be cause]

not even a leaf on a tree here .. butterflies had better wait a while .. b.c.

[Pmt111500]

not even a leaf on a tree here .. butterflies had better wait a while .. b.c.

Liver(kidney)worts and coltsfeet up on locations, no leaves on trees here either. Willows starting bloom

[Tor Bejnar]

The only trees here (north Florida) that are leafless are some of the dead ones (many have Virginia creeper, poison ivy or grape vine leaves 'on' them) and the (vine-less) conifers (with needles).  Butterflies flap their wings here pretty much year-'round, and there is a Tokyo in Tallahassee (the Roboto Tokyo Grill), so watch out, Texas!

[Ktb]

Only ~2 weeks until we pass the Slater projection. Somebody at Colorado should give it some TLC

[numerobis]

The roads are generally dry in Iqaluit, and have been pretty much all month. The tundra is increasingly peering out. It's been generally sunny all month; the only cloudy period recently was Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The river is starting to flow a bit more, so it's flowing above its frozen cap (not enough room underneath the ice for all the volume).

It's definitely spring!