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Author Topic: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.  (Read 100964 times)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #150 on: June 03, 2019, 06:46:33 AM »
The only hope to slow down AGW is massive protest. We should all learn to embrace protest behavior and the struggle for equity.


I agree. Only, this is a forum, not the street.

If you want to have a positive impact, organize rallies, get people behind you in real life, even online it is possible on Twitter and Facebook.

Cluttering the data thread on this forum is not climate action and not even a protest.

Rich

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #151 on: June 03, 2019, 07:46:11 AM »
The only hope to slow down AGW is massive protest. We should all learn to embrace protest behavior and the struggle for equity.


I agree. Only, this is a forum, not the street.

If you want to have a positive impact, organize rallies, get people behind you in real life, even online it is possible on Twitter and Facebook.

Cluttering the data thread on this forum is not climate action and not even a protest.

Your logic escapes me as does the lecturing.

It remains to be seen whether my action will have been useful. Will the area data continued to be delivered with boilerplate downplaying of near term downside risk and routine condescending remarks directed at some of the  participants on the melting season thread?

Maybe, maybe not.

I made my point and Neven clarified the rules, which I am bound to follow if I want to continue to post here.
The area and extent thread is basically the fief of the bookeeper and that is settled.

If you're interested in sharing some details of your own experiences with successful  climate activism.  Do you approve of Extinction Rebellion which inconveniences people as it holds up traffic for hours, while complaining about a few dozen paragraphs of inconvenience in an online forum thread?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #152 on: June 03, 2019, 08:16:12 AM »
Rich, i'm not telling you how to do your climate action.

I'm saying, this special thread is not the platform you will convince people of anything. It's a thread about data. It's a snapshot. It's a presentation of the facts on this day. Wonderfully presented by knowledgeable people. When people clutter this thread, it is getting less useful for everyone in the forum.

The logic is easy to understand: Everyone on this forum and their dog is convinced by now that climate change is happening and that it's a bad thing. Neven is solving the denier problem. No need to convince anyone here.

But if you want to talk about the ways to go from here, there are plenty of threads for that.

Nothing else is going on here! I don't hate you now, i don't think you are wrong with your opinions,  i'm not even saying you shouldn't oppose Gerontocrat views.

As Neven said, just copy the quote to another (fitting) thread, that's all.

jdallen

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #153 on: June 05, 2019, 03:50:39 AM »
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #154 on: June 05, 2019, 04:56:40 AM »
I think last year? someone suggested we call newbies slushies because they always want to proclaim this year will be the worst for ice.

Rich

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #155 on: June 05, 2019, 05:24:24 AM »
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/
.

Just what is it that the "newbie" is objecting to?

It appears he is challenging the ability of ANYONE to predict the end of season results with any accuracy in early June.

It appears newbie is joined in his objection by a valued veteran contributor to the community (FishOutofWater).

Perhaps you should examine the issue on it's merits instead of engaged in ad hominem labeling and bullying?

There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #156 on: June 05, 2019, 07:48:41 AM »
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/

Every year ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #157 on: June 05, 2019, 07:52:58 AM »
It appears he is challenging the ability of ANYONE to predict the end of season results with any accuracy in early June.
<snip>
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.

And I'd like to know who this boo keeper of yours is who makes the fatal mistake of "indicating certain outcomes" that "do not pan out". Shame on him! Throw him out of the forum! Ban him for ever!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Krakatoa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #158 on: June 05, 2019, 07:53:42 AM »
 The years with the lowest summer extend were 2007, 2012 and 2016. Can someone explain what were the most important factors causing that low extend for those years?

Rich

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #159 on: June 05, 2019, 08:07:29 AM »
[quote author=binntho link=topic=22

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.

[/quote]

Well, in this case the newbie is not the one making the prediction. The newbie is respecting that the Arctic will do it's own thing.

Nice attempt at a straw man. Sounds like you and the newbie are on the same page.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #160 on: June 05, 2019, 08:13:27 AM »
[quote author=binntho link=topic=22

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.


Well, in this case the newbie is not the one making the prediction. The newbie is respecting that the Arctic will do it's own thing.

Nice attempt at a straw man. Sounds like you and the newbie are on the same page.
[/quote]

I'm having trouble seeing my strawman. The word "newbies" in plural does not indicate that I am imbuing your anonymous "newbie" with any opinions or actions.

You, however, make a half-decent attempt at a strawman by claiming that it sounds as if I and your hypothetical anonymous "newbie" are on some common page, whatever that means. It's too vague to be usable in a bonfire, but if it gives you a warm and happy feeling inside, then that's good I guess.

But I'm simply trying sarcastically to show how silly your posts are, but I am very happy to acknowledge that I've totally failed that mission.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #161 on: June 05, 2019, 08:21:34 AM »
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

What do you think 'likelihood' means, Rich? Do you think pointing out likelihood is equivalent to making predictions?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #162 on: June 05, 2019, 08:26:01 AM »
Krakatoa, i x-posted your question to a thread you'll get answers more likely:

X-posting this here because i think it will get buried in the thread it was posted:

The years with the lowest summer extend were 2007, 2012 and 2016. Can someone explain what were the most important factors causing that low extend for those years?

Rich

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #163 on: June 05, 2019, 10:21:33 AM »
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

What do you think 'likelihood' means, Rich? Do you think pointing out likelihood is equivalent to making predictions?

Ummm .yes. If someone says "x" is likely to happen, then I think that equates to the equivalent of a prediction with an implied confidence interval.

That's the sort of language that the IPCC provides policy makers for planning purposes. Likely, highly likely, etc.

fwiw - I'm not seeking to draw this discussion out any further. I didn't start this thread which was apparently set up to haze me. I'm comfortable that I have acted genuinely throughout and I think FOW having a similar reaction reinforces the legitimacy of my point.

I suggest we've beaten this to death and should move on.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #164 on: June 05, 2019, 10:43:20 AM »
So that would mean you can't win the lottery because the likelihood is so low.
Or, it would mean you can't possibly survive any car crash because the likelihood of dying in a car accident is so high.

Likelihood and prediction are two completely different concepts. You can make factual statements based about the likelihood of something. Predictions are always kind of stupid.

A great book in this regard, that helped me to understand the concept, is the Black Swan by Taleb.

Here is him talking briefly about the concept.


jdallen

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #165 on: June 05, 2019, 10:12:39 PM »
Perhaps you should examine the issue on it's merits instead of engaged in ad hominem labeling and bullying?
I singled out no one.
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Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #166 on: June 15, 2019, 03:04:31 PM »
I just want to take this moment to thank the Arctic sea ice for keeping the north hemisphere nice and cool during summer.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #167 on: June 15, 2019, 03:08:33 PM »
Then let me thank the jetstream, that keeps the coldest air up in the Arctic so we can have warm and fruitful summers.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #168 on: June 15, 2019, 06:21:16 PM »
After years of careful book-keeping, I have reached my conclusion

Doomed!
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #169 on: June 15, 2019, 06:42:18 PM »
 .. but .. but .. there is an obvious recovery over the last 6 years .. b.c.

 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Stephan

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #170 on: June 15, 2019, 06:48:33 PM »
Yes, there has been a recovery from 2012 to 2014 and from 2016 to 2018. But six years is much too short to define a recovery in general. The annual changes are still larger than the overall trend. Therefore I think we would need two decades of increasing area, thickness or volume to finally define a recovery. Unfortunately we will not see that, simply referring to higher CO2 and CH4 contents in the atmosphere.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #171 on: June 15, 2019, 06:49:43 PM »
Stephan, i think B.C. was sarcastic. ;)

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #172 on: June 15, 2019, 07:38:25 PM »
.. .. well this is the meaningless chatter thread.. :)_ b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #173 on: June 15, 2019, 08:34:37 PM »
So I'm allowed to acknowledge I LOLed at that exchange.  Some on this forum, it sometimes appears, think it is a sin to enjoy anything. 

A parallel from one of my worlds (the world of Quakerism):

I'd rather be a jolly St. Francis
Singing his canticle to the sun,
Than a dour, old sobersides Quake
Whose diet would appear to have been,
Spiritual Persimmons.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #174 on: June 15, 2019, 08:40:15 PM »
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/



Every year ...

I have a very specific way of dealing with this that works for me. When new people start posting, I read every comment very closely. It is usually easy to determine whether they have much to offer (on topic?, insightful?, probing questions?). For those who have little to offer, I just slide past what they write but will occasionally skim a comment to confirm it is not worth reading. Several here have now slipped comfortably into that category for me. You will know you are there when I never respond to anything you write.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 09:28:42 PM by Shared Humanity »

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #175 on: June 16, 2019, 07:52:45 AM »
Someone said somewhere that setting up solar plants on the deserts disturb the desert life by cutting sunlight amounts way too much and allowing desert plants and animals to thrive too much.

This just to get the thread back on track of meaninglessness.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #176 on: June 16, 2019, 08:38:40 AM »
Wait, what? They argued more plants and animals in the desert is a bad thing?

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #177 on: June 16, 2019, 10:53:30 AM »
So that wasn't meaningless enough. It was some 7 years ago. Can I come up with some more meaningless stuff? I'll have to not think about it.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #178 on: June 16, 2019, 12:36:36 PM »
What is it with right-wing think tanks making up bogus arguments like this?

You might know that from spam mail. You read it and think "who would possibly fall for that?", how stupid are those spammers?

And then you find out it's a feature, not a bug. The spammers ain't stupid! By phrasing it simply, by making up horrendous claims, and being extremely out of touch, you catch exactly your targeted group of people. The idiots who easily believe that made up shit. You can't trick a person who sees a spam mail as spam. They would also see the trick. You can easily tick a person, who falls for it though.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #179 on: June 16, 2019, 01:06:50 PM »
chatter, hatter, hater, hate, hat, at, a .. did you hear them sing 'Imagine' in Hong Kong  today ?
 
 I once wrote a song called imagine ..

#Imagine a world without music .. Imagine a bird with no song .. Could you bear it very long ? ..

there is currently no obvious hole within 10 miles of the north pole .. b.c.




2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #180 on: June 16, 2019, 01:14:20 PM »
chatter, hatter, hater, hate, hat, at, a .. did you hear them sing 'Imagine' in Hong Kong  today ?
 
 I once wrote a song called imagine ..

#Imagine a world without music .. Imagine a bird with no song .. Could you bear it very long ? ..

there is currently no obvious hole within 10 miles of the north pole .. b.c.

This brought to mind that I need to visit the groceries the second time this sunday, thanks. Now what was it that i needed to buy?
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #181 on: June 18, 2019, 02:54:21 PM »
Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned because of the meaningless nature of the discussion, what do you peeps think of the PIOMAS 20C graph posted over at the PIOMAS thread?

Any insight?

This one:

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #182 on: June 18, 2019, 05:34:14 PM »
I think the lines are misplaced. The black line should have been horizontal, and the red line should not have started from the absolute peak.
That is, if the numbers for the earlier decades are reliable.

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #183 on: June 18, 2019, 05:38:39 PM »
Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned because of the meaningless nature of the discussion, what do you peeps think of the PIOMAS 20C graph posted over at the PIOMAS thread?

Any insight?

This one:



Clearly they haven't factored in the Arctic aftereffects of volcanoes. Or, it could be the enrichment-effect on phytoplankton. I'm not sure what I see there.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #184 on: June 18, 2019, 06:40:22 PM »
The above graph is from The Polar Science Center,
The PIOMAS volume data, which most of us await with bated breath, is from The Polar Science Center.

The Graph says decadal volume loss of 3,800 km3.
The PIOMAS commentary to their monthly updates says decadal loss of 2,800 km3. The graph I made from the PIOMAS daily data agrees with that (attached)

Not a small difference.

1910 to 1978. Not a clue how they did it. Must have been some heroic assumptions used given the sparsity of data available. (Still somewhat problematical today - especially in summer).
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Klondike Kat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #185 on: June 18, 2019, 06:58:27 PM »
I think the lines are misplaced. The black line should have been horizontal, and the red line should not have started from the absolute peak.
That is, if the numbers for the earlier decades are reliable.

I highly doubt they are.  Still, I am curious as to how they obtained them.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #186 on: June 19, 2019, 02:05:57 PM »
The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #187 on: June 19, 2019, 02:07:56 PM »
The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.
Absolutely!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #188 on: June 19, 2019, 02:18:26 PM »
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.



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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #189 on: June 19, 2019, 02:59:11 PM »
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
In PIOMAS we trust

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #190 on: June 19, 2019, 03:08:24 PM »
Cool, a thread that I can participate in.   :)

K, back to lurking now.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #191 on: June 19, 2019, 03:10:11 PM »
@bluice : Thank you!  :D

@karl : LOL  ;D

Rich

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #192 on: June 19, 2019, 03:23:11 PM »
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.

Such hardship to endure. Forced to scroll through a few extra posts. What is the world coming to?


b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #193 on: June 19, 2019, 03:30:37 PM »
Quote
What is the world coming to?

I asked kindly, others did the same. But you feel treated unjustly so badly when asked to stop.

That's not a problem with us, it's a problem in your head.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #194 on: June 19, 2019, 03:36:23 PM »
It gets a bit annoying when a forum read regularly by hundreds of people suddenly becomes the private chat room of a few newbies.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #195 on: June 19, 2019, 03:42:25 PM »
[quote author=Rich
[/quot What is the world coming to ..



 that's a bit Rich coming from you .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #196 on: June 19, 2019, 11:03:13 PM »
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.

Such hardship to endure. Forced to scroll through a few extra posts. What is the world coming to?

If it's coming to all of this idle, off topic conversation occurring here instead of the melting threads, count me in.

uniquorn

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #197 on: June 19, 2019, 11:28:02 PM »
gnth fjls ti slpa ea;;lkk us opa[p

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #198 on: June 19, 2019, 11:40:56 PM »
ah ! you speak Unicornish  :) .. b.c
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #199 on: June 20, 2019, 01:18:59 AM »
this is probably where I should post everything ..

    .. the jet stream from gfs on meteociel looks like picasso is painting in a new dimension .. it's from
  another planet .. b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...