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Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #200 on: June 20, 2019, 04:27:28 AM »
Thanks for the meaningless insight. I need to examine this closer.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Pragma

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #201 on: June 20, 2019, 04:57:25 AM »
ah ! you speak Unicornish  :) .. b.c

Is that similar to Monodevonian?  ;D

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #202 on: June 20, 2019, 05:07:08 AM »
It looked like the language of the Gibbers to me, but I stopped intentionally using that language about the time I discovered Neven's blog. So what do I know, anymore?
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Darvince

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #203 on: June 20, 2019, 09:23:33 AM »
When I was this thread I though "At last! a thread on the meaninglessness whole-hemisphere extent as a marker of the transition between freezing and melting season!"

...but no. Nothing to see here - Carry on.
I've heard on the street that tubas are the largest and lowest-pitched musical instrument in the brass family. As with all brass instruments, the sound is produced by lip vibration into a large mouthpiece. German players generally prefer rotary valves while British and American players favor piston valves; the choice of valve type remains up to the performer. (Source: Wikipedia, as of the time I made this post) ;D

Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned
I think it is more appropriate to have different 'levels' of sea ice volume before the recent trend which stay at different static levels, at least, that is what I see in that chart before 1980 or so.

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #204 on: June 20, 2019, 09:12:13 PM »

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #205 on: June 22, 2019, 01:33:22 PM »
It increasingly looking like this should be the home of forecasts from 5 days out .. no matter how many agree on the longer range . The 1043 high seems a distant memory rather than next weeks certainty .
  The second half of the last 2 gfs forecasts look like they come from different years rather than 6 hours apart .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #206 on: June 24, 2019, 03:19:46 PM »
The priest, accoutred with his threadbare mitre slightly decentred, and a scruffy sceptre that had long lost its lustre, carried for several metres a philtre of a dekalitre or so of a saltpetre and nitre mixture for curing his goitre, while the spectre reconnoitred from the centre of the theatre, thinking, "how outré"!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Pmt111500

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #207 on: June 26, 2019, 02:41:24 PM »
Moving this here too so people can argue how many days 2019 is ahead on this model of a ice-thickness. I say 6.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #208 on: June 26, 2019, 02:56:08 PM »
😥

(To quote a wise man: "And this is definitely all i'm going to say about this")

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #209 on: June 26, 2019, 05:13:57 PM »
Moving this here too so people can argue how many days 2019 is ahead on this model of a ice-thickness. I say 6.

i think it was yesterday when i posted that we surpassed 1978's volume low and someone confirmed, hence that makes totally sense and as we know AMSR2 is high-res and mostly accurate as a base for such calculations.

i'm sure this is spot on, in 10 days we gonna know what Piomas comes up with.

pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #210 on: June 26, 2019, 05:58:57 PM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

pls!

bluice

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #211 on: June 26, 2019, 07:11:50 PM »
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
I admit, I got that one wrong.

I’ll give it another week: extent will be back at the 2nd lowest on July 3rd.
In PIOMAS we trust

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #212 on: June 26, 2019, 09:54:14 PM »
"She", the large floe within the Lincoln Sea for which there is a poll, has a curious texture.  Note scale in lower right corner.  Blue, I understand, is melt ponding and pink is 'white' ice.  Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?  (The image shows just part of the floe; its edge shows in the lower and lower right corner of the image.) Sentinel-hub Playground image.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #213 on: June 26, 2019, 10:58:04 PM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #214 on: June 26, 2019, 11:13:19 PM »
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 11:26:02 PM by magnamentis »

pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #215 on: June 27, 2019, 12:10:38 AM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)
pls!

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #216 on: June 27, 2019, 12:30:20 AM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)
There is a company that must believe there are lawns in Alaska. If there are lawns there are likely to be lawnmowers (or a caribou or two).

https://www.outsidepride.com/seed/grass-seed/State-Lawn-Guide/Alaska-Grass-Seed/

Quote
Best Lawn Grass Seeds For Alaska

Grasses used in Alaska include Kentucky bluegrasses, creeping red fescue and ryegrass (used for a nurse crop or erosion control). Cold tolerance is by far the most important grass characteristic for Alaska and bluegrass and fine fescue are the most cold tolerant grasses. Kentucky bluegrass can be used by itself, but creeping red fescue is usually combined into a mix with Kentucky bluegrass.

It is worth incorporating fine fescue with bluegrass for a good seed mix. In fact, blending several varieties of bluegrass and/or fescues is a good idea. Your lawn will then have a better chance of surviving some factor which would wipe out a specific variety of grass. The more variety you can put into a mix, the more resistant it becomes to disease, fungus, and insects.

For an open lawn 60 percent Kentucky bluegrass, 35 percent red fescue and 5 percent ryegrass is recommended. For a shadier area 50 percent Kentucky bluegrass, 45 percent red fescue and 5 percent ryegrass is recommended. For erodable areas, increase the ryegrass to about 10 percent.

Now not a lot of people know that.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #217 on: June 27, 2019, 06:11:41 AM »
Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?

I could imagine them to be
1) fine cracks, allowing the water to drain through the floe
2) refrozen melt ponds from last year
3) snow dunes, having a higher elevation. When they melt, the water flows towards the lower ponds

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #218 on: June 27, 2019, 07:14:15 AM »
Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?

I could imagine them to be
1) fine cracks, allowing the water to drain through the floe
2) refrozen melt ponds from last year
3) snow dunes, having a higher elevation. When they melt, the water flows towards the lower ponds
To me the obvious answer would be pressure ridges, a very common phenomena in Arctic Ice - but to be honest, I've absolutely no idea!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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forkyfork

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #219 on: June 29, 2019, 01:32:06 AM »
imagine what it must have been like in the strongest part of GAC 2012 with 65kt winds and all that ice churning in the ocean

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #220 on: June 29, 2019, 09:20:21 AM »
To me the obvious answer would be pressure ridges

Now i can imagine them to be pressure ridges also.

Thanks Binntho. :)

johnm33

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #221 on: June 29, 2019, 11:02:07 AM »
"Any takers on what the pink lines" Same as binntho, pressure ridges composed of multiple platelets of fresh frozen ice forced more or less vertical by the packs competing rotational forces. So more saline weak ice agglutinations prime for tipping given a little space.

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #222 on: July 02, 2019, 06:53:21 PM »
so this should have been full the last few days . How waves work , what dispersion is etc . Tomorrow what will fill the melt thread .. enough hot air to melt both poles ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sterks

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #223 on: July 02, 2019, 07:33:06 PM »
Storm dispersion and floe churning  is really important. 2016, no June Cliff, small storms, and a 3-in-1:GAC, and number 2 in area and minimum extent?

petm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #224 on: July 03, 2019, 12:11:26 AM »
The summer of 2012 saw not just "the GAC", but a whole series of cyclones starting in June leading up to it. Using Worldview, you can see clear spiral cloud patterns on the Pacific side of the CAB on June 20-21, July 11, July 16-18 immediately followed by multiple small ones (?) July 19-22, July 29, and Aug 3-7+ (the GAC).

Each of these cyclones temporarily reversed the clockwise rotation of the ice, dispersing it. By August, there was already a huge rip in the fabric of the pack.

So far this year, there don't seem to be any such damaging cyclones in the same area (a small one on June 25). Instead, there were several in the Beaufort, starting as early as May (!) with obvious impacts on the ice: May 25, June 11-16, June 24-28.

And currently (since yesterday) there is one (or two) in the ESS. It will be very interesting in about a week to see what damage this will have done, especially following on the heels of the storm that just came through the Bearing.

2012, first obvious cyclone that I could find:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2012-06-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4365829.436066626,-904214.593060046,1532410.5639333741,2413545.406939954

Today, ESS cyclone(s):
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-07-02-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2733573.4360666256,558057.406939954,215546.56393337413,2216937.406939954

VaughnAn

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #225 on: July 03, 2019, 07:14:19 AM »
A-Team posted this back on November 24, 2017 on the Ice Apocalypse thread.  I think it is a little funny yet worth another read considering the shape of the Arctic Ice today and should cause us to pause a moment and consider the implications.  It also parallels gerontocrat's "Perils of Projections." Enjoy:

Quote
Tamsin Edwards is an apologist for climate risk denial.
Here is an amusing commentary on their low-ball Antarctic scenario from G Laden and RB Alley.

I did not care for the timing (as it undercut a good public outreach effort from E Holthaus) nor the self-promotional tone of the Guardian piece, nor the barrage of followup tweets, from a minor figure in climate science seemingly assuming a major role as media spokesperson.

I wonder if she will morph into another Dahl-Jensen, Judith Curry, Andrew Rifken, or Bjorn Lomberg, the last thing we need right now in communicating climate risk. Or maybe just naive (as only a scientist can be) to how the Guardian post will be utilized by industry to muddy the risk waters.

I located her researchgate page and the never--published, never-cited 2006 dissertation on Z bosons; this constant recitation of being a particle physicist despite never having worked in that area in a professional capacity. It's not a qualification any more than neurosurgery because the physics of climate change is entirely nineteenth century newtonian (outside a few things like isotopes).

http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/22/antarctic-ice-sheet-deterioration-study-left-out-important-factors/
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105344?journalCode=earth
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105344?journalCode=earth
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tamsin_Edwards/contributions
https://www-d0.fnal.gov/results/publications_talks/thesis/edwards/thesis.pdf

"An engineer, a theoretical physicist [ie TE], and a paleoclimatologist are at a wedding. There is a ice large sculpture of a swan on a flat topped table, for decoration. The three start a betting pool on how long it will take for the entire swan, which has already started to melt, to end up on the floor.

The engineer notices some of the meltwater dribbling off the back of the table. She places a set of beer mugs under the streams of water, and records how long it takes for a measured amount of liquid to accumulate. She uses this to generate a graph showing melting over time, estimating the volume of the swan by looking it up in his manual on Ice Sculpture Specifications, and suggests that it will take eleven hours.

The theoretical physicist estimates the volume of ice by assuming a spherical swan, measures the air temperature, and calculates the rate of conversion from ice to water using thermodynamics. He comes up with a different estimate, because the engineer forgot to account for density differences in ice vs water. He estimates that the swan will be entirely the floor in eight and a half hours.

The paleoclimatologist disagrees, and says, “It will take between one and three hours for that swan to be on the floor.”

“Why do you think that, you are clearly an idiot, and I am clearly a physicist, so I must be right!” says the theoretical physicist.

Just as the paleoclimatologist is about to answer, the already melting neck of the swan breaks, and the upper part of the neck and head fall backwards, knocking off one of the large wings. All of those pieces slide off the table and crash on the floor. The stress of the impact causes the second wing to break off, but it stays on the table, but it begins to slowly slide toward the edge, clearly about to fall off as well.

“Because,” the paleoclimatologist says. “Last wedding I went to, that happened.”

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #226 on: July 03, 2019, 09:19:21 AM »
thank goodness A-team left his gifts .. unlike Lurk who took all his little gifts with him (phew! :) ) b.c.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 02:20:46 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Peter Ellis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #227 on: July 03, 2019, 02:34:55 PM »
A-Team posted this back on November 24, 2017 on the Ice Apocalypse thread.  I think it is a little funny yet worth another read considering the shape of the Arctic Ice today and should cause us to pause a moment and consider the implications.  It also parallels gerontocrat's "Perils of Projections."

Another parable I find of use in my own field of molecular biology is to consider how your measurement protocols affect the thing you're measuring.

When the blind men studied an elephant, they could not agree what it was like.  They said:
"An elephant is like a rope"
"An elephant is like a treetrunk"
"An elephant is like a wall"
"An elephant is like a snake"
"An elephant is like a sail"
Nevertheless, by synthesising their points of view, they were able to approximate the truth.


In contrast, when the blind elephants studied a man, they were unanimous:
"Men are flat"

b_lumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #228 on: July 03, 2019, 09:22:53 PM »
Hmph, too complicated...

The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus), also known as the lammergeier (or lammergeyer) or ossifrage, is a bird of prey and the only member of the genus Gypaetus.

Holy moly what a beautiful bird! <3



bluice

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #229 on: July 04, 2019, 11:08:50 PM »
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
I admit, I got that one wrong.

I’ll give it another week: extent will be back at the 2nd lowest on July 3rd.
There’s no extent data for July 3rd but area was the 2nd lowest on that day  8)
In PIOMAS we trust

Niall Dollard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #230 on: July 05, 2019, 01:06:27 AM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

Brian  Brettschneider informed us that they are now selling Snake Bite Kits in Alaska.

Snakes in the grass ? 😁

kassy

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #231 on: July 05, 2019, 01:43:45 PM »
Maybe they are for Alaskans who plan to travel south?  ;)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #232 on: July 05, 2019, 03:08:00 PM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

Brian  Brettschneider informed us that they are now selling Snake Bite Kits in Alaska.

Snakes in the grass ? 😁
What do they know that we don't know?
Is the Fred Meyer Organisation part of The Deep State?
I think we ought to know.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #233 on: July 05, 2019, 03:36:24 PM »
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

You're in Alaska and wanna lawnmower.?
Not a problem.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sterks

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #234 on: July 06, 2019, 02:13:22 PM »
How bad the ice decline is that ending in 4 mill km2 is already disappointing for many.

Shared Humanity

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #235 on: July 06, 2019, 04:26:58 PM »
How bad the ice decline is that ending in 4 mill km2 is already disappointing for many.

Kind of random comment but, if I read you correctly, none here really wish or hope for a record minimum. Sometimes sensing an underlying excitement about where we are heading can be misinterpreted. It's like flying with a wingsuit, stimulating, terrifying and ultimately resulting in our demise.


Sterks

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #236 on: July 07, 2019, 05:50:59 PM »
I have this conspiracy theory, to be fair it's not that crazy, accounting for all those QAnuses thinking JFK jr. was going to reappear from death with the MAGA hat and all on the 4th of July, and that every-time there's a hiccup in the Japanese computers processing area/extent, two or three respectable members think some government is playing foul, when it's clear that JAXA still uses Windows 98.

Anyway, my theory is: the minimum of 2012 did not happen. I mean, JUST LOOK AT THE GRAPHS!

It was a fabulously fabricated lie conjured by the US and Japan governments, to avoid the pressure of environmentalists for a decade and so help delay the transition to carbon-free economies. They set the bar so low... to mute the alarmists! And they succeeded! Because every time there's a second low, or a third low in September, which should have been a record first, or a second, alarmists get terribly disappointed, and shut up for another year.

The NOAA guys are half-brothers of those NASA people that fabricated the Apollo XI, so that's easy. The university guys (Colorado, Illinois) accepted succulent bribes,..., I mean, funds and scholarships to play along and doctor the area and extent maps.
Shit, they even got the GAC for free, it was like nature wanting to cooperate with the dark side.
In reality, it was a rebound from 2011, sort of a 2013/2014 with a GAC. By looking at the tendencies, it is the most reasonable outcome..

...

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #237 on: July 07, 2019, 06:02:36 PM »
Sometimes sensing an underlying excitement about where we are heading can be misinterpreted.

you are certainly right with everything while there is one more thing to consider:

assuming that we know where we are heading and we know we can't stop it, 0.00000 chance, and knowing it will happen soon ( BOE etc. ), there is indeed a legit point to wish it to happen soon for several reasons:

a) there are people who if a hassle cannot be avoided they want to  get done with it ASAP.

b) since sea-ice is not the entire story and since we need fast, consequent and painful action
.   to avoid the very worst in the long run, a BOE etc. would certainly accelerate action and
.   awareness and readiness to deal with the downsides of the necessary actions, hence the earlier
.   that BOE etc. happens the faster we get to terms with a majority needed to move thing.

c) yes, in some way we humans are seeking spectacle and to be part of game changing events
.   and to watch it happen is certainly a highest level spectacle, we have to make the best of it,
.   no way to change that without cutting mankind's balls.

d) there are still a lot of people who have a limited sight, mind and/or readiness to tackle the bull
.   at it's horns, hence we need kind of heavy tobacco to finally make them cough and vomit ;)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #238 on: July 07, 2019, 06:06:11 PM »
to Sterks

Nonsense. Just likely a 10 or 20 year cycle atmospheric circulation.

Possibly caused by solar activity (fewer sunspots - warmer in summer in the Arctic):



Or a strong El Nino is affected. He happens about once in 16 years. A strong warming in the Chukchi Sea is observed just after every strong El Nino:



ArcticMelt2

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #239 on: July 07, 2019, 06:26:11 PM »
And, of course, in the coming years, we can expect huge ice losses, which will far exceed both 2007 and 2012.

Before 2007 and 2012, there were minimal ice losses in the Arctic. Therefore, in this cycle of reducing ice, I expect a much greater failure than in 2007 or 2012.

You can see how much the growth of the graph of the average annual temperature in Kotzebue differs in the current cycle compared to any previous cycle.

In the coming years we will see a unprecedented catastrophe in the Arctic.

Sterks

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #240 on: July 07, 2019, 06:45:30 PM »
ArcticMelt2 don't take it seriously, it was just a parody I wrote as I sit drinking my lemonade

Rod

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #241 on: July 08, 2019, 06:05:18 AM »
Thank you Juan 😝

petm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #242 on: July 08, 2019, 07:01:00 AM »
It's like flying with a wingsuit

He won't live long, not in one piece anyways. Good example of why humans need to be extincted, asap.

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #243 on: July 08, 2019, 09:05:55 PM »
It's like flying with a wingsuit

He won't live long, not in one piece anyways. Good example of why humans need to be extincted, asap.

punished, brought to reason, pay the price for their evil doing, come to terms, even being punished at times (facing consequences) but  "HAVE TO BE EXTINCT ? heavy tobacco really and then please consider that almost anything in nature/universe is following it's path and purpose, plants are dominating over others, animals are trying to dominate over others, planets are trying to pull in others, the sun will destroy all inner planets after giving life energy to earth over such a long time, galaxies are destroying others etc.etc. .... not even talking about black holes, neutron stars and magnetars etc. this is nature and "have to be extinct as a conviction is too heavy a statement IMO (even though it will happen but not because some of us want, like or say it)

;)

pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #244 on: July 09, 2019, 12:48:23 AM »
oh my goodness, I have an actual HUMAN sighting!!! Though to be honest, I feel kinda like a creeper but I'm sure they are enjoying the sun and warmth.

pls!

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #245 on: July 09, 2019, 04:08:50 AM »
oh my goodness, I have an actual HUMAN sighting!!! Though to be honest, I feel kinda like a creeper but I'm sure they are enjoying the sun and warmth.

according to the shape of his legs he must have been horse-riding most of his life and yes, it's relatively warm but when i see the locals still in parkas in full sunshine i assume that is very relative ;)

nice catch as always and what i like most is the nicely growing green spots.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:07:54 PM by magnamentis »

HapHazard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #246 on: July 09, 2019, 11:23:38 AM »
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...

Ken Feldman

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #247 on: July 09, 2019, 07:22:49 PM »
The summer of 2012 saw not just "the GAC", but a whole series of cyclones starting in June leading up to it. Using Worldview, you can see clear spiral cloud patterns on the Pacific side of the CAB on June 20-21, July 11, July 16-18 immediately followed by multiple small ones (?) July 19-22, July 29, and Aug 3-7+ (the GAC).

Each of these cyclones temporarily reversed the clockwise rotation of the ice, dispersing it. By August, there was already a huge rip in the fabric of the pack.

So far this year, there don't seem to be any such damaging cyclones in the same area (a small one on June 25). Instead, there were several in the Beaufort, starting as early as May (!) with obvious impacts on the ice: May 25, June 11-16, June 24-28.

And currently (since yesterday) there is one (or two) in the ESS. It will be very interesting in about a week to see what damage this will have done, especially following on the heels of the storm that just came through the Bearing.

2012, first obvious cyclone that I could find:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2012-06-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4365829.436066626,-904214.593060046,1532410.5639333741,2413545.406939954

Today, ESS cyclone(s):
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-07-02-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2733573.4360666256,558057.406939954,215546.56393337413,2216937.406939954

We may not need an GAC for a new record low.  First, the following link indicates that 2012 would have reached a record low even without the GAC:

Quote
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190

Quote
The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

Jinlun Zhang, Ron Lindsay, Axel Schweiger, Michael Steele

Abstract
 

[1] This model study examines the impact of an intense early August cyclone on the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice extent. The cyclone passed when Arctic sea ice was thin and the simulated Arctic ice volume had already declined ~40% from the 2007–2011 mean. The thin sea ice pack and the presence of ocean heat in the near surface temperature maximum layer created conditions that made the ice particularly vulnerable to storms. During the storm, ice volume decreased about twice as fast as usual, owing largely to a quadrupling in bottom melt caused by increased upward ocean heat transport. This increased ocean heat flux was due to enhanced mixing in the oceanic boundary layer, driven by strong winds and rapid ice movement. A comparison with a sensitivity simulation driven by reduced wind speeds during the cyclone indicates that cyclone‐enhanced bottom melt strongly reduces ice extent for about 2 weeks, with a declining effect afterward. The simulated Arctic sea ice extent minimum in 2012 is reduced by the cyclone but only by 0.15 × 106 km2 (4.4%). Thus, without the storm, 2012 would still have produced a record minimum.

In fact, fewer cyclones may increase the probability of a new record low, because even in summer, cyclones tend to help preserve sea ice.  Here's the explanation from the Director of the NSIDC, Mark Serreze:

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2013/08/are-arctic-cyclones-chewing-sea-ice

Quote
Cyclones do three things to sea ice. They spread out ice to cover a larger area, forming space between ice floes, and increasing ice extent. They bring on cool conditions. And they cause precipitation, which even in the peak of summer is still between 40 to 50 percent in the form of snow. Storms are good for the Arctic. Snow reinforces ice by increasing the amount of sunlight reflected back into the atmosphere, helping to cool the region. When rain falls, it is near freezing; so it doesn’t melt snow like a warm rainstorm over snow banks in lower latitudes. “Statistically speaking,” Serreze said, “summers with lots of cyclones have less ice loss than summers with fewer storms. That’s pretty clear.” That’s what happened this past June. A stormy pattern slowed the rate of ice loss. “Having said that,” Serreze said, “the impacts of an individual storm may not follow that rule, and maybe importantly, the rules are starting to change.”

When a storm breaks up the ice causing ice sprawl, it accelerates ice loss because the darker spaces of open ocean water, absorb more solar energy and increase melting. “If you looked at it that way,” Serreze said, “okay, I’d buy it. But that’s not the only thing that’s happening.” Stormy patterns bring on cool conditions and more precipitation, which tends to increase ice extent. However, individual cyclones may start to change the rules, putting more emphasis on ice break up as a factor in ice loss. Scientists don’t quite know yet if that is the case. Serreze warned, however, that at some point, the ice becomes so thin it doesn’t matter if there’s a storm or not. “It’s just going to melt anyhow,” he said.

It seems from the volume measurements that the ice may be thinner this summer than 2012.  I'm more concerned about a repeat of the conditions that caused so much ice loss in 2007, even though that ice started the season with much more volume than either 2012 or 2019.  This article explains the conditions that caused the ice loss in 2007:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008JCLI2521.1

Quote
Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend

R. W. Lindsay, J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Abstract

The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.

Quote
The ice–albedo feedback was particularly strong in 2007. Perovich et al. (2008) found a sixfold increase (relative to the 1990s) in bottom melt at the location of a mass balance buoy in the Beaufort Sea but only normal amounts of surface melt. This was caused by a 500% increase (relative to 1979–2005 average) in the absorbed solar flux due chiefly to more open water and a small anomaly (6%) in downwelling solar radiation. The anomaly in downwelling solar radiation and potentially increased melt rates were due to persistent high pressure in the Beaufort Sea region that brought unusually clear skies (Kay et al. 2008). However, the anomalous downwelling solar flux was not a key component of the large retreat of ice in 2007 according to a modeling study by Schweiger et al. (2008). They conclude that the anomalous radiative flux was not in the region where the ice retreated most dramatically and numerical experiments without the anomaly produced ice extents similar to those with the anomaly.

The anomalous winds of 2007 contributed to the reduction in ice extent by pushing the ice to one side of the basin, but if the sea ice had been of near-normal thickness at the start of the year, the unprecedented reduction in extent would likely not have occurred. This increase in the advection of ice from the Pacific sector to the Atlantic sector may be amplified by two dynamic feedbacks, one in which thinner (and hence weaker) ice is more easily compacted (Maslanik et al. 2007) and one in which thinner ice responds more readily to wind forcing, which is manifested in higher ice drift speeds (Rampal et al. 2007). The thinner ice is more easily compacted and is flushed out of the basin more quickly. In addition, winds favorable for sequestering multiyear ice within the basin have been rare since the 1980s.

Tealight's albedo warming potential graphs are showing record highs.  All that remains to set a new record is the wrong wind patterns to blow the remaining ice out of the Arctic.

magnamentis

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #248 on: July 09, 2019, 08:08:40 PM »
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...

you mean there must be something that big in the way haha....

VaughnAn

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #249 on: July 10, 2019, 07:30:30 AM »
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...

That was my first thought too.