Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.  (Read 102532 times)

Rich

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #350 on: July 30, 2019, 04:08:15 AM »
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.

Wikipedia


Internet troll

Quote
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Thanks Rod. Wiki isn't always correct, but they are in this case. That's an excellent definition of a troll.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #351 on: July 30, 2019, 04:11:40 AM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1067
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #352 on: July 30, 2019, 07:50:26 AM »
I´m posting this here rather than in the Arctic Image of the Day thread since it's really more than on image, and it's not "of the day". A few days ago I posted a picture of before/after that I stumbled across, and some discussion ensued as to whether the old picture was possibly showing an iceberg rather than the calving front (which is obviously not the case, but never mind).

My original post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg216541.html#msg216541

So I set off looking for some good "before and after" pictures, mostly because I remember vaguely having seen a picture of one of the big Icelandic glaciers taken at the beginning of the 20th century, looking towards the west and showing an ice front rising sharply (tens of meters) but rounded at the top. The glacier is Breiðamerkurjökull, and the photo taken from the Fell farm or possibly from Hrollaugshólar.

I haven't been able to find this picture, but I found another old one from an expedition by the English photographer Frederick W. W. Howell from the year 1900. The original is shown below, then the same picture with the outline of the glacier marked in, and finally a map with a red dot showing the approximate location of the old farm and two red lines showing where the end moraine is today.

The top of the glacier is at least 1000 meters away, probably more, but the picture does seem to be taken with an unspecified zoom making it impossible to estimate the height. But the top of the end moraine rises perhpaps some 50 metres above the surrounding area (guesstimate based on memory!)
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1067
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #353 on: July 30, 2019, 07:56:27 AM »
In the previous post, the glacier can be seen struggling to overcome it´s own end morain (which is by the way not formed by the ice pushing the underlying material, but rather by surface waters flowing off the end of the glacier and depositing sediments in front of it).

At that time, around 1900,  the glacier is at absolute maximum for the entire Holocene (the last 8000 years), but today it is seriously reduced and cannot be seen at all from where the original picture is taken.

I found a fairly good picture on the net, taken by a David Elliot (sorry for stealing your picture, David!) where he has gone behind the end moraine (first picture). This particular glacier is rather fast moving (which can be seen by the cracking) and has a tendency to advance and retreat regularly, but since I started going there in the 1990s, the glacial tongue proper has thinned by several tens of meters.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #354 on: July 30, 2019, 02:03:56 PM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #355 on: July 30, 2019, 05:13:01 PM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

You know Klondike, you could be a valuable asset in this discussion.

Do you think the denier community benefits from the BOE hype? Isn't it a better strategy for deniers to engage with alarmists on issues unlikely to materialize as a means of discrediting more legitimate issues?



kynde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #356 on: July 31, 2019, 08:08:26 PM »
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

This tworp is totally trolling and I while I certainly don't want to discriminate scientific illiteracy, I would like to skip that drivel myself.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 886
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 217
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #357 on: July 31, 2019, 08:26:57 PM »
shock .. horror .. how could anyone thing rich a troll ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #358 on: July 31, 2019, 08:34:27 PM »
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #359 on: July 31, 2019, 08:38:40 PM »
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

It works

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #360 on: July 31, 2019, 08:40:11 PM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #361 on: July 31, 2019, 08:41:33 PM »
It works

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

Great! I've been tempted to use it ... maybe I will ...

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #362 on: July 31, 2019, 08:57:27 PM »
I have ... some voices here were a little too self absorbed and "loud" ...

Edit: I was in a long hiatus because of them
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 09:24:52 PM by DrTskoul »

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1544
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #363 on: July 31, 2019, 09:00:47 PM »
I have ... some voices here are a little too self absorbed and "loud" ....
I ignore nothing.. all "part of life's rich(?) tapestry".

The brain learns to slide over most of it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

cognitivebias2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #364 on: July 31, 2019, 09:18:27 PM »
Great place to complement DrTskoul on the excellent footer links.  ;D ;D ;D

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #365 on: July 31, 2019, 09:27:09 PM »
I have ... some voices here are a little too self absorbed and "loud" ....
I ignore nothing.. all "part of life's rich(?) tapestry".

The brain learns to slide over most of it.

Ha... on the phone it takes lots of scrolling...

I love sarcasm, black humor and smart puns...

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 878
  • Likes Given: 1287
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #366 on: July 31, 2019, 10:19:22 PM »
I dislike the scrolling and I dislike the trolling, but I haven't blocked anyone (yet). Normally the trolls manage to piss off our tolerant moderator at some point, and are gone. I try to help them along with questions and rebuttals that cause them to expose their roots. Blocking prevents this sport.

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 162
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 1048
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #367 on: July 31, 2019, 10:30:34 PM »

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

It does not filter quoted text, unfortunately.

Reading thru the Cryosphere sub-forum has gotten... tiresome. Death by a million paper cuts.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #368 on: July 31, 2019, 10:34:09 PM »
I try to help them along with questions and rebuttals that cause them to expose their roots. Blocking prevents this sport.

lol

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #369 on: July 31, 2019, 10:36:37 PM »
I have only done it twice.... my scrolling fingers thank me

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3971
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #370 on: July 31, 2019, 10:45:48 PM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #371 on: July 31, 2019, 10:49:45 PM »
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #372 on: July 31, 2019, 11:47:53 PM »
shock .. horror .. how could anyone thing rich a troll ? b.c.

I'm not a troll. I'm a lunatic like John Blutarski.

In the movie Animal House, John Belushi's character comes home to a dejected frat house which has lost their charter and had many of the brothers expelled.

It's a classic rant from a clasic scene from a classic movie. Google 'was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor" if you want to watch it.

I'm on a rant here folks. It worked in the movie.

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1561
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 767
  • Likes Given: 160
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #373 on: July 31, 2019, 11:52:44 PM »
Hello Rich

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #374 on: August 01, 2019, 12:04:37 AM »

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.

Well for a start, it has happened before:
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html


There is a brief discussion on how equable climates might occur on the same site. Just because we don't know or can't imagine the mechanisms involved, doesn't mean that it's not possible.

Certainly the Arctic will always lose heat during the winter faster than it can be replaced by solar inputs (which are zero or near zero). But what prevents the heat from being transferred from lower latitude regions, and how stable is that barrier?
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 12:13:17 AM by petm »

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #375 on: August 01, 2019, 12:10:49 AM »

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.

Well for a start, it has happened before:
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html


There is a brief discussion on how equable climates might occur on the same site. Just because we don't know or can't imagine the mechanisms involved, doesn't mean that it's not possible.


Was the orbital setup the same as today ?

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #376 on: August 01, 2019, 12:25:46 AM »
I'm no expert, but it's probably not due to orbital parameters. Otherwise finding the explanation would be easy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Early_Eocene_and_the_equable_climate_problem

Try this: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/easpubs/175/

Quote
The Early Eocene Equable Climate Problem Revisited

Matthew Huber, Purdue University
R. Caballero, Stockholm University

Abstract
The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #377 on: August 01, 2019, 12:33:53 AM »
And another one (paywalled):

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11300

Quote
Persistent near-tropical warmth on the Antarctic continent during the early Eocene epoch


Jörg Pross, Lineth Contreras, Peter K. Bijl, David R. Greenwood, Steven M. Bohaty, Stefan Schouten, James A. Bendle, Ursula Röhl, Lisa Tauxe, J. Ian Raine, Claire E. Huck, Tina van de Flierdt, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Catherine E. Stickley, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Carlota Escutia, Henk Brinkhuis & Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 Scientists

Nature volume 488, pages 73–77 (02 August 2012) | Download Citation

Abstract

The warmest global climates of the past 65 million years occurred during the early Eocene epoch (about 55 to 48 million years ago), when the Equator-to-pole temperature gradients were much smaller than today1,2 and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were in excess of one thousand parts per million by volume3,4. Recently the early Eocene has received considerable interest because it may provide insight into the response of Earth’s climate and biosphere to the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that are expected in the near future5 as a consequence of unabated anthropogenic carbon emissions4,6. Climatic conditions of the early Eocene ‘greenhouse world’, however, are poorly constrained in critical regions, particularly Antarctica. Here we present a well-dated record of early Eocene climate on Antarctica from an ocean sediment core recovered off the Wilkes Land coast of East Antarctica. The information from biotic climate proxies (pollen and spores) and independent organic geochemical climate proxies (indices based on branched tetraether lipids) yields quantitative, seasonal temperature reconstructions for the early Eocene greenhouse world on Antarctica. We show that the climate in lowland settings along the Wilkes Land coast (at a palaeolatitude of about 70° south) supported the growth of highly diverse, near-tropical forests characterized by mesothermal to megathermal floral elements including palms and Bombacoideae. Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #378 on: August 01, 2019, 12:56:02 AM »
It required a few thousand ppm of CO2, granted with a weaker sun , but still required a huge forcing

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3971
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #379 on: August 01, 2019, 01:10:49 AM »
And another one (paywalled):

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11300

Quote
Persistent near-tropical warmth on the Antarctic continent during the early Eocene epoch


Jörg Pross, Lineth Contreras, Peter K. Bijl, David R. Greenwood, Steven M. Bohaty, Stefan Schouten, James A. Bendle, Ursula Röhl, Lisa Tauxe, J. Ian Raine, Claire E. Huck, Tina van de Flierdt, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Catherine E. Stickley, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Carlota Escutia, Henk Brinkhuis & Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 Scientists

Nature volume 488, pages 73–77 (02 August 2012) | Download Citation

Abstract

The warmest global climates of the past 65 million years occurred during the early Eocene epoch (about 55 to 48 million years ago), when the Equator-to-pole temperature gradients were much smaller than today1,2 and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were in excess of one thousand parts per million by volume3,4. Recently the early Eocene has received considerable interest because it may provide insight into the response of Earth’s climate and biosphere to the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that are expected in the near future5 as a consequence of unabated anthropogenic carbon emissions4,6.
Climatic conditions of the early Eocene ‘greenhouse world’, however, are poorly constrained in critical regions, particularly Antarctica. Here we present a well-dated record of early Eocene climate on Antarctica from an ocean sediment core recovered off the Wilkes Land coast of East Antarctica. The information from biotic climate proxies (pollen and spores) and independent organic geochemical climate proxies (indices based on branched tetraether lipids) yields quantitative, seasonal temperature reconstructions for the early Eocene greenhouse world on Antarctica. We show that the climate in lowland settings along the Wilkes Land coast (at a palaeolatitude of about 70° south) supported the growth of highly diverse, near-tropical forests characterized by mesothermal to megathermal floral elements including palms and Bombacoideae. Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.

I am absolutely fascinated by the periods of equable climate but the sentences that I have set to bold type tells me we are not close to such an occurrence. What were the authors smoking when they said we would reach CO2 levels of 1000 ppm in the near future?

Human civilization and increases in anthropogenic forcing will have ceased long before then.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #380 on: August 01, 2019, 01:48:28 AM »
Near future might easily mean 100s, 1000s, or 10000s of years when talking about epochs. But it's not at all far-fetched that we might reach 1000 ppm by 2100 (https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm). And we probably don't need 1000 ppm for an ice-free Arctic Ocean in winter. What happens once we have an ice-free (or mostly) ocean along with major storm-induced mixing? What would be the knock-on effects for re-freeze, local climate (already warming rapidly especially in winter), and global atmospheric circulation?

I'm just no longer convinced that we can completely rule out an ice free arctic in winter on the 100s of years timescale, and maybe sooner. All components of the climate system seem to be responding at rates that until recently were unimaginable, and we may well be just at the beginning of an acceleration.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3971
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #381 on: August 01, 2019, 02:17:14 AM »
Near future might easily mean 100s, 1000s, or 10000s of years when talking about epochs. But it's not at all far-fetched that we might reach 1000 ppm by 2100 (https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm). And we probably don't need 1000 ppm for an ice-free Arctic Ocean in winter. What happens once we have an ice-free (or mostly) ocean along with major storm-induced mixing? What would be the knock-on effects for re-freeze, local climate (already warming rapidly especially in winter), and global atmospheric circulation?

I'm just no longer convinced that we can completely rule out an ice free arctic in winter on the 100s of years timescale, and maybe sooner. All components of the climate system seem to be responding at rates that until recently were unimaginable, and we may well be just at the beginning of an acceleration.

You posted this in response to my saying we will not have a year long BOE by 2050. We will be at 500 ppm CO2 by 2050 and this is simply not enough forcing IMHO.

For the record, we may very well be seasonally ice free by 2050.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #382 on: August 01, 2019, 02:37:42 AM »
I don't think we are disagreeing.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #383 on: August 01, 2019, 05:33:23 AM »
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:

• Big increases in regional water vapor with consequent effects on regional GW (likely with BOE)
• Big increases in low level clouds (obviously related to the previous)
• Big increases in regional methane, whether from land or sea or elsewhere
• Big increases in wave amplitude (likely with BOE) churning deep, warmer waters up toward the surfact
• Ever loopier Rossby waves bringing ever warmer, ever wetter air up from the south
• Total breakdown of atmospheric currents to 'one cell' 'equable climate'
• Big alterations in ocean currents (likely with BOE, but in what direction is hard to say)
• Ever stronger cyclones coming ever further north
• Other ever-larger and ever hotter subtropical airmasses moving north of the Arctic circle (as is happening now over Greenland)...

Those are just some things at the top of my brain. I'm sure others can think of more mechanisms that would hold more heat in the Arctic or transport more heat in. It's hard to say how important any one of these would be or how much they would interact to reinforce each other and how quickly. But given these and others, I don't see how one can say that it is completely unimaginable that year round BOE could be a 'thing' in the not so very distant future.

There are other things possible/observed wrt to the stratosphere that perhaps others could clarify more competently than I.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 05:46:03 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 928
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 6115
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #384 on: August 01, 2019, 05:37:32 AM »
The polar water can get a lot warmer. e.g. Because of the gulfstream many northern places remain ice-free in winter.
I think we are far from a year-round BOE. Perhaps a hyperthermal will come to help get the neccessary forcing? AHGW.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1067
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #385 on: August 01, 2019, 06:59:50 AM »
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:
Well the sea around Svalbard (and even a couple of hundred km to the north at times) does not freeze in winter in spite of there being a long dark Arctic winter there. On the Atlantic front, we quite often see Ice-free conditions through winter in (admittedly) small areas north of 80 degrees.

So a warmer North-Atlantic current that stretches ever further north along the surface, particularly if coupled with clouds during winter, might well keep a very large part of the Arctic ocean ice free all year round.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #386 on: August 01, 2019, 07:19:58 AM »
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:
Well the sea around Svalbard (and even a couple of hundred km to the north at times) does not freeze in winter in spite of there being a long dark Arctic winter there. On the Atlantic front, we quite often see Ice-free conditions through winter in (admittedly) small areas north of 80 degrees.

So a warmer North-Atlantic current that stretches ever further north along the surface, particularly if coupled with clouds during winter, might well keep a very large part of the Arctic ocean ice free all year round.
Much depends on salinity and total system heat present.

Greenland still presents a serious "cold pole" as does Siberia/Yakutsk.  As long as we see snowfall over these regions, I think at the very least, near shore and the CAB north of the dropoff at Nansen basin will probably continue to freeze seasonally through the end of the century.
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1544
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #387 on: August 01, 2019, 10:09:03 AM »
I think this Autumn we may get a little taster of the impact of higher Arctic SSTs in summer on re-freeze and perhaps even on eventual ice volumes in that part of the Arctic at maximum?

The Chukchi SSTs are very high. Will this significantly the timing of refreeze? i.e. maybe just a hint of the effect of warming Arctic seas on winter ice?

One is permitted to speculate on this thread. Jolly good thing too.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #388 on: August 01, 2019, 11:22:26 AM »
I am interested to follow the snow as normally and the weather in the atlsntic/northeast us. 2013 was very snowy here.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 878
  • Likes Given: 1287
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #389 on: August 01, 2019, 11:34:51 AM »
N. is back in action in the main threads. It has immediately quieted. I hope it stays that way.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #390 on: August 01, 2019, 01:49:10 PM »
N. is back in action in the main threads. It has immediately quieted. I hope it stays that way.

He also clarified in a side thread that it's not ASIF's mission to stop AGW. I'm pretty sure that he hopes the information shared here will be helpful in that regard.
He's a good man. You are too Oren.

The war to salvage human civilization goes on. The resistance is alive and growing. ASIF is not a hub of resistance. But it's a great source of information exchange and a good place to watch it all end, for those so inclined.

aslan

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #391 on: August 01, 2019, 03:44:40 PM »
During the Eocene, CO2 was probably around 1000 pm and orbital factor were probably not a good explanation for equable climate. Despite this, Arctic was perennially ice free with subtropical fauna / flora up to Ellesmere -and the paleolatitude of the island was about the same that today-. But even more, during middle Miocene sea ice was probably restricted to central Arctic during winter (cf. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11148 ) while CO2 was around 500 ppm. There is also some other indirect elements, like the fossils of a cool temperature forest on Bank island : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.522.4554&rep=rep1&type=pdf -and usually cool temperate forest is not found with sea ice https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperate_coniferous_forest#/media/File:Biome_map_05.svg -.
Excepted for central basin (i.e. extent at 5 millions in winter), perennially open Arctic is not likely by 2050 but still possible. If we follow the same trajectory for CO2 emissions, the earliest decade this could really happen is 2070s or 2080s. Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport. The problem is that models needs large scale gradient for heat transport, but paleoclimatology show that it was definitively not the case. As hurricanes are mesoscale system, are not well handled by models, and don't need gradient for mixing heat, they check all the boxes for explaining why models and paleoclimalogy are on an head on collision trajectory.

P.S. : petm was speaking of year-round Arctic ice free but in my head in 50 years we will be in 2050. Excepted, this is no longer the case since 20 years now XD
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 09:47:36 PM by aslan »

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #392 on: August 01, 2019, 08:06:38 PM »
Aslan wrote:

Quote
...Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport...

Thanks, that's pretty much my understanding of it, too.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1067
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #393 on: August 04, 2019, 10:53:27 AM »
Taken from the 2019 melting season thread.

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

As we enter the final month of melt, we can see that pretty much all the sun energy excess is in the past, and now a good stirring is what the melt doctor should write a prescription for.

(Once the ESS finishes melting out in a week or two, conditions for cyclone creation will be as ideal as possible in the Arctic.)

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #394 on: August 04, 2019, 11:12:49 AM »
Taken from the 2019 melting season thread.

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

As we enter the final month of melt, we can see that pretty much all the sun energy excess is in the past, and now a good stirring is what the melt doctor should write a prescription for.

(Once the ESS finishes melting out in a week or two, conditions for cyclone creation will be as ideal as possible in the Arctic.)

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).

He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1067
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #395 on: August 04, 2019, 11:46:02 AM »
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

But this diagram can obviously not be used to predict temperatures other than as a reminder that the higher latitudes are colder because they receive less sunlight during the year. And since the diagram is of so very little use in predicting temperatures, adding outgoing radiation seems to me to be just stupid.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

GlassHalfEmpty

  • New ice
  • Posts: 8
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #396 on: August 04, 2019, 01:12:56 PM »
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The phrase "starts to freeze" implies, well, freezing. GSY might get away with "has the potential to start to cool, ignoring all other factors including (but not exclusively) wind, sea currents, and cloud cover". Implying freezing starts in locations where the insolation/radiative balance goes negative and ignoring that the current sea temperature is, say, 15 C is just misleading/wrong.

Quote
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
Eh? When asked for a reference to a paper, GSY said:
Quote
If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
That doesn't really fill me with very much confidence in this being any other than personal opinion. Which is fine, and shouldn't be discouraged, but don't represent it as being anything other than that.
"There are two ways of constructing a software design: One way is to make it so simple that there are obviously no deficiencies, and the other way is to make it so complicated that there are no obvious deficiencies. The first method is far more difficult." -- C.A.R. Hoare

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 553
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #397 on: August 04, 2019, 02:01:50 PM »
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

That graph shows insolation at the top of atmosphere.   Insolation at the surface will be substantially less than at the top of atmosphere when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, as the light then has to travel a longer path through the atmosphere and more of it gets absorbed (or reflected) by the atmosphere before it reaches the ground.  Moreover, surface albedo is higher when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, so more light gets reflected at the surface too.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #398 on: August 04, 2019, 02:17:01 PM »
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The phrase "starts to freeze" implies, well, freezing. GSY might get away with "has the potential to start to cool, ignoring all other factors including (but not exclusively) wind, sea currents, and cloud cover". Implying freezing starts in locations where the insolation/radiative balance goes negative and ignoring that the current sea temperature is, say, 15 C is just misleading/wrong.

Quote
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
Eh? When asked for a reference to a paper, GSY said:
Quote
If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
That doesn't really fill me with very much confidence in this being any other than personal opinion. Which is fine, and shouldn't be discouraged, but don't represent it as being anything other than that.
1.I meant to take it as a first approximation of when open skies actually help freezing (until early May) and when open skies start to help cool off the partially melt Arctic (mid August). Open skies by the end of August do help lowering temperatures. Let’s forget other latitudes.
2. I was following the joke of “printing out” the post as a reference... he does provide a paper, the one you print out. Just kidding.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #399 on: August 04, 2019, 02:35:40 PM »
Unlike incoming radiation, outgoing radiation isn't a simple function and certainly is not constant.



This is a snapshot from June 2010. Top is reflected (think albedo), bottom is emitted (long wavelength). Left is with clouds (actual average of June 2010), right is no clouds.

https://www.cmsaf.eu/EN/Overview/OurProducts/ToA_Products/ToA_Products_node.html
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 02:50:05 PM by petm »