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Author Topic: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.  (Read 100634 times)

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #400 on: August 04, 2019, 02:40:34 PM »
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

That graph shows insolation at the top of atmosphere.   Insolation at the surface will be substantially less than at the top of atmosphere when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, as the light then has to travel a longer path through the atmosphere and more of it gets absorbed (or reflected) by the atmosphere before it reaches the ground.  Moreover, surface albedo is higher when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, so more light gets reflected at the surface too.
"Substantially les"s is rather subjective. The sun can certainly be very strong even if it is only at 30 degrees rather than 90 degrees. And the ozone layer which blocks quite a lot of radiation is much thinner at northern latitudes.

As for albedo increasing with angle of incidence - yes, but the longer hours of daylight make up for that. So I would think that the graph is mostly correct as to the amount of solar energy a particular square meter of ground (or water or ice) can expect in a 24 hour period.
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #401 on: August 04, 2019, 03:02:25 PM »
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #402 on: August 04, 2019, 03:30:18 PM »

GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).

If the sun energy stabilized and the seasons stopped changing at any time during nov, dec, jan, or feb, all these cities (except Cairo, which is coastal) would freeze over. Starting to freeze is different than freezing. Same thing with the opposite in the Arctic. The north pole "starts to melt" in June (as far as energy balance is concerned), but there just isn't enough time.

Anyways the whole point is that everything is about energy balance and lag. I think the point I made is actually an important one. Not sure why you want to poke fun. Also, I live at 30N and have been to or near all 4 cities. I don't think many people would laugh due to their poor english comprehension or their being texan.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #403 on: August 04, 2019, 03:40:04 PM »
About 80 wm2 gets reflected. Thus about 270 wm2 gets to earth. But none of this is relevant.

The graph I posted (with my addition) is a very simplistic tool to understand the warming or cooling potential for any place on earth at any time of year. Of course water creates big lags, and the warm moves around very asymmetrically in both water and air, but rather than trying to find reasons that it is stupid, try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #404 on: August 04, 2019, 04:04:28 PM »
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #405 on: August 04, 2019, 04:10:40 PM »
The graph I posted (with my addition) is a very simplistic tool to understand the warming or cooling potential for any place on earth at any time of year.
Extremely simple to the point of being totally useless. The graph could only be taken to indicate anything about warming potential on a planet without atmosphere or liquid water.

And since the graph has extremely little to say about the temperatures at different latitudes, adding a shaded-below-350 to it gives absolutely no extra information that could be applicable anywhere except, perhaps, in Yakutsk at slightly above 60 degrees north, in the middle of a continent, where it does freeze until May and starts freezing again in September.
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Steven

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #406 on: August 04, 2019, 08:47:15 PM »
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?

No, it doesn't.  The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon at this time of year.  That means that the light has to travel a longer distance through the atmosphere than at latitude 30°N even though the atmosphere in the Arctic is thinner than in the tropics.

The graph below is from Tealight's website, showing insolation at the surface for different latitudes.  This graph is quite a bit different from the top-of-atmosphere insolation graph that was posted upthread.  Unfortunately, Tealight gives no source for this graph on his website, so I'm not sure where he got the data from.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html


petm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #407 on: August 04, 2019, 11:55:07 PM »
There are detailed calculations here:

https://www.itacanet.org/the-sun-as-a-source-of-energy/part-2-solar-energy-reaching-the-earths-surface/



The chart above does not take into account absorption by the atmosphere. There are also calculations on the linked page dealing with that aspect.






___


Also this (which includes reference to textbook calculations):

http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/600/610/614/solar-water/idrc/01-09.html

Intensity by latitude and season:


This (above and below) is for UV-A and the difference between seasons increases with increasing wavelength:



... Seems like there are plenty of answers to this question, but those answers are not simple.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 12:15:40 AM by petm »

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #408 on: August 05, 2019, 04:37:50 AM »
... Seems like there are plenty of answers to this question, but those answers are not simple.


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #409 on: August 05, 2019, 06:18:28 AM »
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?

So transparently wrong that you can't even bother to say what exactly is wrong? It is definitely correct that the energy balance from insolation/radiation is near 350. WTF is your problem?
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #410 on: August 05, 2019, 07:30:33 AM »
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?

No, it doesn't.  The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon at this time of year.  That means that the light has to travel a longer distance through the atmosphere than at latitude 30°N even though the atmosphere in the Arctic is thinner than in the tropics.

The graph below is from Tealight's website, showing insolation at the surface for different latitudes.  This graph is quite a bit different from the top-of-atmosphere insolation graph that was posted upthread.  Unfortunately, Tealight gives no source for this graph on his website, so I'm not sure where he got the data from.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html


Just to point out that this graph shows only latitudes from 50 and over, while the "top of atmosphere" one shows 0, 30, 60 and 90 degrees latitude.

As for the distance through the atmosophere - the 30 degrees I talked about was a rough estimate for the angle of the sun at its highest in the Arctic (reaches max 23.5 at the North Pole itself).

So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #411 on: August 05, 2019, 07:37:04 AM »
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?

So transparently wrong that you can't even bother to say what exactly is wrong? It is definitely correct that the energy balance from insolation/radiation is near 350. WTF is your problem?
I've already pointed out how extremely wrong your claim is that non-coastal areas north of 30 degrees will be freezing between the equinoxes. This is so far out as to be laughable.

And any attempts to claim that your graph (shown below) or the original, without the grey smudging, can be used to say anything about temperatures in other than a few extremely strangely located places like Yakutsk, is obviously wrong.

So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #412 on: August 05, 2019, 07:45:42 AM »
There are detailed calculations here:

https://www.itacanet.org/the-sun-as-a-source-of-energy/part-2-solar-energy-reaching-the-earths-surface/

Pretty complicated calculations, but seeing the captions beneath the main graph is perhaps interesting.

It is the total daily irradiation, i.e. it takes into account the number of hours of sunlight there are in a day, and it also takes into account the angle of incident.

As for absorbtion by the atmosphere, as I've pointed out, the troposphere in the Arctic is only half the thickness of that in the Tropics, and during high summer, anything above a 30 degrees sunlight angle in the Arctic is likely to travel a shorter distance through the atmosphere than sunlight falling in the tropics.

Not to mention that the Ozone layer is also a lot thinner over the Arctic, and the whole idea that the sunlight loses more energy in the Arctic due to longer distance travelled through the atmosphere seems to be losing ground rapidly.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #413 on: August 05, 2019, 04:22:18 PM »
I've already pointed out how extremely wrong your claim is that non-coastal areas north of 30 degrees will be freezing between the equinoxes. This is so far out as to be laughable.

If the sun energy stabilized and the seasons stopped changing at any time during nov, dec, jan, or feb, all these cities (except Cairo, which is coastal) would freeze over. Starting to freeze is different than freezing. Same thing with the opposite in the Arctic. The north pole "starts to melt" in June (as far as energy balance is concerned), but there just isn't enough time.

Almost anywhere not coastal would eventually freeze if the wm2 was substantially below 350 long term. This is what I have been trying to say the whole time, and I made it very clear in the post quoted above. But you just want to continue being a derp.

So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?

It doesn't need "correction", and I never suggested such. The reason I added the grey "smudging" was to show where/when there is energy surplus from solar insolation/radiation.

My turn: Why do you think there is anything misleading about what I posted? (And if you repeat the same nonsense about temperatures which I have addressed several times, you will reveal yourself as a intellectual dolt / intentional instigator. )
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #414 on: August 05, 2019, 04:24:13 PM »
Maybe I should make it extra simple for the binntho's of the world:

Grey area = cooling time of year

Above grey area = warming time of year
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #415 on: August 05, 2019, 04:53:14 PM »
Almost anywhere not coastal would eventually freeze if the wm2 was substantially below 350 long term. This is what I have been trying to say the whole time, and I made it very clear in the post quoted above.
Well perhaps you have been trying to say it, but it has proved remarkably difficult to get it out, what with all the nonsense and rudeness. Do you have any evidence to substantiate this claim?

As petm has pointed out, outgoing radiation is very variable but you seem to think that it isn't. Perhaps you'd like to elucidate?
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #416 on: August 05, 2019, 05:04:11 PM »
So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?

It doesn't need "correction", and I never suggested such. The reason I added the grey "smudging" was to show where/when there is energy surplus from solar insolation/radiation.

Well, what did you mean by this?

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

followed by this:

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.

Big claims followed by a rather rude remark, setting the tone for the rest of the debate. Well done.

How about something that actually supports your claims?
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #417 on: August 05, 2019, 08:23:44 PM »
GSY, don't call others stupid when you lose your patience.
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #418 on: August 05, 2019, 08:29:40 PM »
Can I use this thread for some mushroom psychedelia?
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 08:35:48 PM by sailor »
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #419 on: August 05, 2019, 09:04:00 PM »
The beauty of Worldview images.
There’s an immensity of broken ice, like 1 million km2, the size of France and Germany together, right there.
Hopefully this is not OT here, it doesn’t qualify for the image of the day, too ordinary they say.
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Steven

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #420 on: August 05, 2019, 10:16:54 PM »
So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.

That could be a heuristic for summer solstice.  But it's already August, and the sun angle in the high Arctic is dropping quickly.

The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon right now.   The path through the atmosphere is already 36% longer now than at summer solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(17°) ≈ 1.36 ).   At the end of August, the angle will be only 9° and the path will be 2.5 times longer than at solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(9°) ≈ 2.55).

This also shows up in the surface insolation graph I posted yesterday:

Top-of-atmosphere insolation at the North Pole at this time of year (5 August) is about 75% of its value at solstice, whereas surface insolation is about 60% of its value at solstice.  This discrepancy gets even larger in the next few weeks.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #421 on: August 06, 2019, 05:59:38 AM »
So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.

That could be a heuristic for summer solstice.  But it's already August, and the sun angle in the high Arctic is dropping quickly.
I quite agree, my point was precisely about what happens at the center of the graph, when insolation is at maximum in the Arctic. Whenever the graph gets posted during high summer, some people start saying things like "oh but the angle of incident is much higher" (yes, that's included in the calculations) and "but the sunlight travels much farther through the atmosphere" (no it doesn't, or at least not as much as people think).
Quote
The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon right now.   The path through the atmosphere is already 36% longer now than at summer solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(17°) ≈ 1.36 ).   At the end of August, the angle will be only 9° and the path will be 2.5 times longer than at solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(9°) ≈ 2.55).

This also shows up in the surface insolation graph I posted yesterday:

Top-of-atmosphere insolation at the North Pole at this time of year (5 August) is about 75% of its value at solstice, whereas surface insolation is about 60% of its value at solstice.  This discrepancy gets even larger in the next few weeks.
I totally agree with everything you say!
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 08:10:32 AM by binntho »
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #422 on: August 07, 2019, 08:15:27 AM »
Playing around with ENSO and NSIDC SIE minimums I came up with the following graph, it's difficult to see any correlation between the two.

Data from https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php and https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm

With a bit of good will, a delayed reaction might be seen to be taking place after the 87 and 97/98 mega Ninos. It's however difficult to see 2007 and 2012 being affected by Ninos since the events preceding them were small and similar events in the past have not had any discernible effect.
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RikW

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #423 on: August 07, 2019, 08:58:30 AM »
I don't think there is causality; it's our nature as humans to see patterns everywhere, even when there isn't any significant link

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #424 on: August 07, 2019, 12:56:19 PM »
Does a La Nina precec a recovery? Well, I marked in blue where the stronges La Nina episodes were (and red shows where the stronges El Nino episodes are to be found). The vertical blue lines connect the deepest La Nina years with the corresponding SIE year.

Of the 6 blue lines, 3 precede a rise in SIE and 3 precede a fall. Rather inconclusive.
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #425 on: August 07, 2019, 01:50:52 PM »
The teleconnections are different in a different world - and the ice is certainly totally different these last 10 years than what it was before. But is the ENSO changing? The first graph shows the annual ENSO index average + trendline. There is practically no trend whatsoever, which surprised me given the large mega-El Nino recently.

The second graph shows decadal averages, and the ENSO fluctuation does seem to be calming down - again quite surprising given recent events.

Remember that the index is essentially a measure of sea surface temperatures in certain areas in the Pacific, and what with all the AGW and whatnot one would have thought that these graphs would show something quite different.
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #426 on: August 07, 2019, 02:01:45 PM »
ENSO is most certainly changing in ways that the index alone can't tell. Sort of of the same way ASI extent hides changes. The whole world is, sadly.
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #427 on: August 07, 2019, 02:09:05 PM »
ENSO is most certainly changing in ways that the index alone can't tell. Sort of of the same way ASI extent hides changes. The whole world is, sadly.
"Oh tempora, oh mores" as Cicero famously said. Similar lamentations, I've been told, can be found in Egyptian papyrii.

The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see. If it wasn't for AGW, which definitely looks bloody scary, I'd be generally a "the world is happily changing" kind of guy.

But has ENSO changed? It doesn't seem as if it has - the megaspike of 2016 could just be something that happens once every century irregardless of AGW. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #428 on: August 07, 2019, 05:10:27 PM »
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?
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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #429 on: August 07, 2019, 07:04:48 PM »
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?

Kind of a don't worry, everything looks good here. Sure we have that AGW stuff but there is no real reason to worry about any truly disastrous effects.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #430 on: August 07, 2019, 07:23:15 PM »
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.

Those who best adapt will be the survivors and they will be mostly among those who don't panic.

At least there is no reason to spit / bash on people who try to see not all lost or negative or do so by their very nature.

I always imagine how a really wise person with a real breakthrough idea would react in such an environment. If that person is really wise he/she will live with the bashing but if he/she would be only slightly less mature he/she would perhaps let the rest go down the river.

It feels sometimes like the arrogance of the mostly right who forgot for a moment that mostly is not 100% and will never be.

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #431 on: August 07, 2019, 07:28:04 PM »
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.


Pragmatism is the behavior that allows a person to explain to those less informed just how hard and costly it would be to become carbon neutral by 2050 and dismisses Greta as a little girl who is blinded by her idealism.

Pragmatism in the face of AGW is going to get a lot of us killed.

philopek

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #432 on: August 07, 2019, 07:36:56 PM »
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.


Pragmatism is the behavior that allows a person to explain to those less informed just how hard and costly it would be to become carbon neutral by 2050 and dismisses Greta as a little girl who is blinded by her idealism.

Pragmatism in the face of AGW is going to get a lot of us killed.

No problem, i disagree that pragmatism is responsible it's the human habit to suppress / repress uncomfortable truths or to deny them in favor of lower / higher interests.

Pragmatism is conscious while suppressing bad experiences and unpleasant facts is often, even mostly subconscious if no greed (lower interest) is involve.

Of course as I know that you know, this is very brief and rudimentary, this topic is huge (too huge for this place) I'm quite sure that after some time of personal exchange we would come to terms.

I just think we should stay open to the fact that people react on similar situations differently and it's not that easy to judge from reading a few lines that lack deeper insight in someones meaning that again would not be welcome here due to being TLTR.

Sterks

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #433 on: August 07, 2019, 08:15:02 PM »
philopek, what is TLTR?
Sorry lolol just some misunderstanding that could/should be corrected, no bad will all good...

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #434 on: August 07, 2019, 08:32:51 PM »
I thought why not look at correlations (other people have)? Mistake.

I looked at Arctic temperatures and Sept ice area (i.e. minima) 2000-2018.
Just got a mess (attached). The trend lines are only there to show how confused I got.
But if I just choose 2016, temperatures zoom up as sea ice minimum falls down.

So then I thought. Any link with Greenland melt?
So I used NSIDC interactive chart (link from Greenland Today) to look at melt in the years when Arctic sea ice melted a lot and the years when the Arctic sea melt was somewhat low.
2 graphs attached. Really messy again but maybe a connection, but not that striking.

Methinks definitely a case of " and that's all I'm going to say about that".

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #435 on: August 07, 2019, 08:40:40 PM »
TLTR ?   too long to read .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #436 on: August 07, 2019, 08:44:28 PM »
philopek, what is TLTR?
Sorry lolol just some misunderstanding that could/should be corrected, no bad will all good...

TLTR = Too Long To Read

I mostly use the term to express that there is much to say, that at times there are topis that fill entire bookshelves, often without a once and for all result or conclusion and somehow for me it contains the kind request to not weigh every letter on a microbalance because it would take too much to discuss something to the bottom ;)

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #437 on: August 07, 2019, 09:14:46 PM »
Got it  :)

Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #438 on: August 07, 2019, 09:35:57 PM »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

uniquorn

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #439 on: August 08, 2019, 12:15:10 AM »
The Barrow cam is STILL down...what a bummer.
I reckon they're up to something.....

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #440 on: August 08, 2019, 07:43:21 AM »
ENSO changes.

https://www.nature.com/collections/ljmwkghnst

Good site. The science doesn't really seem to have reached a conclusion. I'd be very surprised if ENSO didn't change due to climate change, but so far the changes are elusive. This quote, from 2015 (i.e. before the mega-El Nino) is perhaps telling:

Quote from: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2743
The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #441 on: August 08, 2019, 07:52:34 AM »
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?

Well I don't feel particularly trollish. Perhaps being generally optimistic (and a bit too ready to jump when someone makes big claims without evidence) is what defines a troll?

In general, my take on the world is that it is constantly getting better, while sitting on top of a volcano that might or might not explode (i.e. a metaphor for AGW). Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction even if the current lancing of boils makes it difficult to believe.

The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before, fewer people get killed violently than ever before etc. etc. (the USA is of course an outlier and has always been).

We are living through a real and profound revolution in communications which will have a huge effect (as have earlier communications revolutions), scientific discoveries are coming in at a strongly accelerating rate etc. etc.

And yes, over the entire thing hangs the sword of Damocles (another metaphor for AGW) and it's not to be ignored. But at the same time, life goes on, and the world is happily changing.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

nanning

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #442 on: August 08, 2019, 11:38:57 AM »
I didn't think you are a troll binntho. I should have added a wink.

We just really really disagree on "constantly getting better", "Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction" and "The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before".
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #443 on: August 08, 2019, 12:02:49 PM »
I didn't think you are a troll binntho. I should have added a wink.

We just really really disagree on "constantly getting better", "Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction" and "The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before".
Well, let's happily disagree then!  ;D
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #444 on: August 08, 2019, 12:31:19 PM »
But has ENSO changed? It doesn't seem as if it has - the megaspike of 2016 could just be something that happens once every century irregardless of AGW. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?

Also Bintho:

Quote
I'd be very surprised if ENSO didn't change due to climate change, but so far the changes are elusive.

Which one should I believe is your opinion, the former or the later? The former gives the impression that ENSO is something simple and unchanging. It ignores the more complicated nature of ENSO, like shape, duration, intensity, teleconnections and lagging responses.

The later is a more sensible statement.

A few things in mind for your graphs. You compare ENSO to Sept minimum extent. It would be interesting to compare it to the Maximum extent and volume, the Bering and Pacific inner basin seas.

Again big changes should only show up in the last decade or so.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #445 on: August 08, 2019, 01:23:23 PM »
Which one should I believe is your opinion, the former or the later? The former gives the impression that ENSO is something simple and unchanging. It ignores the more complicated nature of ENSO, like shape, duration, intensity, teleconnections and lagging responses.

The later is a more sensible statement.

Both statements are very true reflections of my "opinion" - i.e. I don't see any evidence but a priori I'd expect there to be some. The latter statement is what I expect, the former is what I see.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #446 on: August 08, 2019, 02:10:51 PM »
Bintho, are you using a normalized ENSO index for your graphs?
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Archimid

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #447 on: August 08, 2019, 03:03:49 PM »
That may be why you don’t see change. The enso index you are using is normalized. The flat trend line you are using is a product of normalization not real.

It would be interesting to denormalize it invert it and over impose it over max and min extent, specially the Pacific side Arctic seas on this decade.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #448 on: August 08, 2019, 03:52:36 PM »
That may be why you don’t see change. The enso index you are using is normalized. The flat trend line you are using is a product of normalization not real.

It would be interesting to denormalize it invert it and over impose it over max and min extent, specially the Pacific side Arctic seas on this decade.
I'm not sure - the figures are SST departures and I sort of naively assumed that they were depatures from the same baseline, but looking at what they actually say, it seems that the update the base line every 5 years.

Quote from: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

So normalized - yes. Which raises certain suspicions. I'll see if I can't redo my plots with actual rather than normalized figures.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #449 on: August 08, 2019, 04:50:12 PM »
I've redone my two graphs of the ENSO index, now with fixed baseline. Results more in line with expectations, although the trend (at 0.084 per decade) is significantly lower than the warming trend for the atmosphere for the same time (eg. 0.12 for HadCRUT).
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6