Killian wrote on the 2012 vs 2019 thread:
"You mean 7 years of data isn't enough to predict weather? That would b a wild assertion given the short-term nature of weather forecasting. I'm assuming you mean seven years of weather is not enough to forecast climate?
Either way, this would be incorrect. First, in any given year, the majore forcing for the ASI minima is weather, but overall the climatic changes are setting the context. I would suggest that climate forcing is changing so fast and at such magnitude, it is having noticeable yearly effects. Still, most of the year-to-year differences will be weather. Climate is found in the trends."
Sorry Killian, this statement makes no sense. Of course seven years is not enough to generate climatological data from which to predict the weather. Not even close. No idea what you're trying to say. The issue at hand was about the statistical validity of tossing out 2012 as an outlier when trying to think about what may be to come for the arctic. The arctic is a rapidly transitioning system and there is no valid way to make predictions about what the next few years may bring. We can look back at the years since 2007 and make some informed guesses. That's about it.
Just look at Zach's heat chart of monthly ranks. After two cold, cloudy Julys folks were ready to declare a new trend. Not so much.