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petm

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #500 on: August 19, 2019, 06:38:45 PM »
Crossposting with petm ...  8)

 :D

Another more detailed reference on local sea level effects of melting ice sheets (and one can of course find additional ones in the Introduction section of this one):
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0465.1



(NB: Gander is in Newfoundland, Canada.)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 06:45:32 PM by petm »

sailor

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #501 on: August 19, 2019, 07:10:49 PM »
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.
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stjuuv

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #502 on: August 19, 2019, 07:12:56 PM »
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/25988300.pdf

I found this paper, doesn't really answer the calculations, but seems to indicate that sea level is falling by up to 0.8 mm/year close to Greenland with ice loss at 165Gt/year.

The same ice loss causes rises of up to 0.8 in other areas of the oceans, particularly in the Southern and Pacific oceans.

So if the entire ice sheet were to melt, a global 7 m sea level rise, but a localized 7 m sea level fall closest to Greenland?

Here's another short article with a fantastic picture (albeit not of an ice sheet), https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/how-melting-ice-sheet-could-actually-lower-sea-level-some-places

Quote
Right now, that ice is a huge weight pushing down Earth’s crust in and around Greenland. So when it’s gone, that land will pop up. An intact ice sheet also has a noticeable gravitational pull, which attracts water to the region. No ice means that water will rush away. Both of those effects actually add up to lower sea levels in the area right around the former ice sheet, Mitrovica said. When Greenland melts, places as far away as Norway and Scotland could actually see the sea level fall by as much as 50 meters.

Sounds pretty far-fetched to me! But here is another eminent scientist:

Quote from: http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp
So if the Greenland ice sheet were to catastrophically collapse tomorrow, the sea level in Iceland, Newfoundland, Sweden, Norway—all within this 2,000 kilometer radius of the Greenland ice sheet—would fall. It might have a 30 to 50 meter drop at the shore of Greenland.
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tolfer10

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #503 on: August 19, 2019, 07:26:07 PM »
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.

The best way to think about it in a visual is go sit off the coast of any large landmass in a boat. The gravity of the landmass is not pulling you toward shore. Better hope for a stiff breeze.

johnm33

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #504 on: August 19, 2019, 10:00:05 PM »
Ice, and any fresher water escaping the Arctic [through Fram] on the surface is going to hug the Greenland coast because it has to be accelerated by 17mph/27kph for every degree it moves south only contact with an immovable object will do that.

oren

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #505 on: August 19, 2019, 10:59:10 PM »
Freegrass, glad I could be of help, though it scares me that people learn about ice from me... all I know comes from this forum (apart from my general physics studies).
stjuuv, I have posted several references a few months ago in one of the threads, but not sure in which one.
Thanks to those who brought references and calculations.

Re isostatic rebound, it's an additional effect over the gravitational one. The center land rises, the sides sink, so apparent local sea level drops. This in addition to the drops caused by loss of local gravity.

Re the moon, if it was stuck in one place relative to Earth I am sure the (permanent) tide would be higher. But in any case, good calcs are better than intuiton.

gerontocrat

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #506 on: August 19, 2019, 11:02:47 PM »
I posted this on the wrong thread. and Oren has said it already - ho hum, it's late

I read somewhere that after the last glaciation, in most places land rose, but in other places sunk.

I am not talking about changes in sea level but isostatic rebound.

Attached is my absolutely awful graphic about it.

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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #507 on: August 19, 2019, 11:13:24 PM »
Oh, this should be here too...

Ups and downs from PGR

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #508 on: August 19, 2019, 11:23:03 PM »
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.

The geoid is a map of the equipotential surface, represented as a departure from a reference ellipsoid (the mathematical approximation for the earth). The equipotential surface includes rotational effects. It is changing slowly, from ongoing PGR and ice melt. As sis says, since it is an equipotential surface by definition gravity is always perpendicular to a tangent to the surface.

sailor

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #509 on: August 19, 2019, 11:57:16 PM »
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived

The geoid is a map of the equipotential surface, represented as a departure from a reference ellipsoid (the mathematical approximation for the earth). The equipotential surface includes rotational effects. It is changing slowly, from ongoing PGR and ice melt. As sis says, since it is an equipotential surface by definition gravity is always perpendicular to a tangent to the surface.
Yes. Thank you Rox!
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Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #510 on: August 20, 2019, 04:33:57 AM »
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Thank you Sailor and everyone else! I get it now. I don't have to lose any sleep over this anymore. :D

With all the ice melting in the world, from glaciers to ice sheets, and the water levels rising in the oceans, one could say that the forces on the earth's crust are changing. I believe that these changing forces on the earth's crust will cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Is that a crazy theory, or could there be some truth in this?

Not crazy at all. Tons have been written on this, e.g.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/melting-glaciers-are-wreaking-havoc-earths-crust-180960226/
Awesome article Dnem! I'm so happy to find out my theory isn't that crazy after all. :)

Quote
...recent melting is 20-30 times more likely to trigger volcanic eruptions in places like Iceland and Greenland.

I'm still waiting for the Katla volcano to blow. Wasn't that supposed to happen within 2 years of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption?
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binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #511 on: August 20, 2019, 05:28:03 AM »
I posted this on the wrong thread. and Oren has said it already - ho hum, it's late

I read somewhere that after the last glaciation, in most places land rose, but in other places sunk.

I am not talking about changes in sea level but isostatic rebound.

Attached is my absolutely awful graphic about it.

Awful but expressive! I have read similar things re. isostatic rebound, the presumable explanation being that the mantle underneath the continents can be thought of as a slow-flowing liquid (which is why the crust can move up or down when a glacier grows or diminishes). So when a continental crust rises, mantle material follow behind to fill the gap underneath, and this causes other crustal areas to sink.

The opposite effect apparently caused significant land lift in mid-latitude and tropical islands during the deepest glacial periods. The huge northern ice shield pushed down on the continents, the mantle moved south and the ocean crust is easier to lift than continents. Hence islands being pushed up.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #512 on: August 20, 2019, 05:30:15 AM »
Quote
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Umm the shouty bits do not make it more true.
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is above your theoretical surface.
The ice sheet has a gravitational pull perpendicular to its mass .
When the ice is gone the gravitational effects in the local area change.
Lowering  the surface of the water nearby.
The same effect will happen in antarctic resulting  the polar sea levels falling and higher seas  the nearer you get to the equator.

http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #513 on: August 20, 2019, 05:34:53 AM »

Quote
...recent melting is 20-30 times more likely to trigger volcanic eruptions in places like Iceland and Greenland.

I'm still waiting for the Katla volcano to blow. Wasn't that supposed to happen within 2 years of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

Don't know about volcanic eruptions in Greenland, the changes of that are very low (but I won't say that it couldn't happen if the ice shield disappeared completely).

Under the big Vatnajokul glacier in Iceland, volcanic activity has gone up but nowhere near 20-30 times - perhaps if all the glacier melted?

Katla on the other hand is long overdue, and every autumn earthquake and geothermal activity apparently increases as the ice melts and the weight of the overlying glacier diminishes. So one should have thought that given the general diminishing of the glacier these past decades, the volcano should blow. But then again, predicting volcanic eruptions has never been a very profitable line of work.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Killian

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #514 on: August 20, 2019, 01:40:40 PM »
Killian wrote on the 2012 vs 2019 thread:

"You mean 7 years of data isn't enough to predict weather? That would b a wild assertion given the short-term nature of weather forecasting. I'm assuming you mean seven years of weather is not enough to forecast climate?

"Either way, this would be incorrect."

I doubt it given I was asking someone else to clarify their own statement.

"First, in any given year, the majore forcing for the ASI minima is weather, but overall the climatic changes are setting the context. I would suggest that climate forcing is changing so fast and at such magnitude, it is having noticeable yearly effects. Still, most of the year-to-year differences will be weather. Climate is found in the trends."

"Sorry Killian...  No idea what you're trying to say."

Clearly. But no way am I going to go back and re-read all that just to refute you. And, hey, who knows? you may be right. Probably not, but feel free to claim victory.


dnem

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #515 on: August 20, 2019, 05:14:30 PM »
Say wuh??  I really don't have any idea what you're driving at. Truly. Not trying to be argumentative and not trying to "claim victory"!  You quote "me" but just quote some of your own words! 

I'm pretty sure we basically agree here: Yes, each year's minimum (minima is a plural) is (largely) a result of weather during the melt season, (in addition to the condition of the ice at the end of freeze season and accumulated ocean heat, probably among other things). The weather in the arctic is changing so quickly that using climate (say 1980-2010) to predict, in advance, any upcoming melt season's weather is highly problematic.  The whole discussion started with the idea of chucking out 2012 as an "outlier". That's silly, IMO, as the likelihood of extreme melt seasons increases every year, "loading the dice."  Using climate to predict weather works well in a stable climate.  It works less well when the underlying climate is shifting rapidly in ways that are not well understood or predictable. I have a hard time seeing how I'm saying anything extreme, or outside the realm of plain common sense.

nanning

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #516 on: August 20, 2019, 05:31:26 PM »
Great post dnem, in my view.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #517 on: August 20, 2019, 08:04:05 PM »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Wildcatter

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #518 on: August 20, 2019, 11:54:31 PM »
I wonder if the cyclones in the Atlantic and the circulation effect over the last week or two, and continuing, helps lead to a delay in the freeze season on that side

binntho

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because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #520 on: August 21, 2019, 05:46:33 PM »
My new profile picture is an old one from Facebook that seems suitable for this forum. Nobody ever got it on Facebook... So I wonder... Can YOU see it?  :o
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DrTskoul

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #521 on: August 21, 2019, 05:48:49 PM »
My new profile picture is an old one from Facebook that seems suitable for this forum. Nobody ever got it on Facebook... So I wonder... Can YOU see it?  :o

Where is the damn ice....

Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #522 on: August 21, 2019, 05:53:44 PM »
Where is the damn ice....
Google Earth never shows the ice.
Ignore the details! See the big picture...
I was blown away when I first saw it! :)
But maybe that's just the romantic in me... ;)
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pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #523 on: August 21, 2019, 06:18:48 PM »
I'm so glad I deleted my fbook, it made my already bad depression far worse. But yes, I too notice the lack of ice in that. I do think that if you zoom far enough out on google earth it does now show cloud cover.
pls!

DrTskoul

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #524 on: August 21, 2019, 06:20:58 PM »
I guess I cannot see
 ;)

pearscot

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #525 on: August 21, 2019, 06:53:02 PM »
I guess I cannot see
 ;)

I promise I'm not going crazy...if you turn on satellite imagery and zoom out you get a somewhat live view of the clouds. I know this is recently updated because you can see the small tropical storm which formed far off the coast of Maine and also the area of invest in the Florida keys undergoing deep convection today.

pls!

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #526 on: August 21, 2019, 07:13:16 PM »
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
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Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #527 on: August 21, 2019, 07:31:53 PM »
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
Damn... I guess the world needs more weed to see what I see...  ::) ;) ;D
Here's a hint...
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 07:40:07 PM by Freegrass »
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #528 on: August 21, 2019, 07:35:07 PM »
Quote
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Umm the shouty bits do not make it more true.
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is above your theoretical surface.
The ice sheet has a gravitational pull perpendicular to its mass .
When the ice is gone the gravitational effects in the local area change.
Lowering  the surface of the water nearby.
The same effect will happen in antarctic resulting  the polar sea levels falling and higher seas  the nearer you get to the equator.

http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

You are both right! SIS is correct, as are you. All things being equal water follows an equipotential surface  that is perpendicular to the gravity field. As ice melts, mass is redistributed and the shape of the surface changes, and be inference, water level. I think it's confusing as we think of things flowing up and down 'hills' but in reality, in terms of the 'hills' on the geoid, the hills are flat....

blumenkraft

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #529 on: August 21, 2019, 08:48:33 PM »
if you turn on satellite imagery and zoom out you get a somewhat live view of the clouds.

That's so cool. Never noticed.

It seems to be the top clouds only though. There are a lot of more lower clouds.

Here is the M10 band with Cloud Layer overlay.
Refugees welcome

binntho

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #530 on: August 22, 2019, 07:29:49 AM »
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
Damn... I guess the world needs more weed to see what I see...  ::) ;) ;D
Here's a hint...
Brandy?
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John_The_Elder

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #531 on: August 22, 2019, 02:35:57 PM »
I think you see a very large Alaskan Husky!
John

Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #532 on: August 22, 2019, 07:44:35 PM »

https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/uncertainty-in-warming-since-pre-industrial-times/

Extract: … consider the amount of warming left between today and the 1.5°C target."
I hate to think anybody considers 1.5°C as a target to reach! [After that we have a 2.0°C target, and after we achieve that we'll have a …]  Shouldn't we call it something like "an intended upper limit" (IUL if they use the term multiple times in the paper - "the amount of warming left between today and the 1.5°C IUL")?
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Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #533 on: September 12, 2019, 12:03:52 AM »
Brandy?
The girl, or the booze?  ::)

You really don't see the "girl" and the "dog" in the planet turned on its side? I think the girl is mother nature with her guardian of the planet... ;)

And yes, it's good weed!  8) :o ;D
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Niall Dollard

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #534 on: September 12, 2019, 01:00:42 AM »
Yes I could see the dog, Freegrass, better viewed zoomed out on an average quality phone !

Reminds me a bit of this guy  ;)

Freegrass

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #535 on: September 12, 2019, 01:16:09 AM »
Droopy, ruler of the universe... That makes sense! Now I know why the world is going down the drain...  ;D

Did you also see the girl?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #536 on: September 16, 2019, 09:01:21 PM »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

SimonF92

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #537 on: September 16, 2019, 10:41:32 PM »
Picked this up today, cover- cover on the Arctic

MyACIsDying

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #538 on: September 19, 2019, 02:22:45 PM »
Sorry, my verbiage was imprecise. I don't mean a comparison of the volatility of the ice itself (which is why I ask the question here) but of the JAXA vs. NSIDC instrumentation/assimilation/etc. Just a simple statistical reckoning of the relative smoothness of their daily curves for area and extent. Does one data-source tend to be smoother than the other? On the other hand, if that comparison is probably meaningless, that's also interesting to hear.
bolded why I'm replying here ^^

Sorry for the misunderstanding the other day, hope this makes up for it: JAXA vs NSIDC daily extent for 2019 as line graphic and their respective daily changes as stepped graphic.

While doing so, I heed gerontocrat's & others warning of not comparing different metrics together (hence the INVALID). For the reasons that you mention, differences in instrumentation & algorithms. What we value is the consistency in these models to base trend theories on.

 A simple difference may be that NSIDC measures a larger area than JAXA, seeing winter extent is higher.
Another is that JAXA reports daily extent to 1 km² preciseness , while NSIDC rounds up to 1000 km²

Anyway, the chart makes it clear NSIDC daily change is a lot more jagged than JAXA. If that is because they're more (in)accurate? or JAXA has smoother algorithms, I have no clue.



slow wing

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #539 on: September 25, 2019, 03:31:06 PM »
🌍🔥  New #IPCC #ClimateChange report released today: "IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate" #SROCC

Press release: https://ipcc.ch/2019/09/25/srocc-press-release/

Full Report, & Summary for Policy Makers: https://ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ 🔥🌍

Stephan

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Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« Reply #540 on: September 26, 2019, 09:12:23 PM »
Thank you for posting these links.