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oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #550 on: May 28, 2020, 02:41:38 AM »
Nice find. BTW, if you look closely, you can see he is holding his mobile and browsing the ASIF.

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #551 on: May 28, 2020, 06:21:34 PM »
Nice find. BTW, if you look closely, you can see he is holding his mobile and browsing the ASIF.

We could only hope! Actually, that would be interesting to have someone who lived there speak to the conditions. I'm waiting in anticipation for the fast ice to be ripped out to sea...pretty sure the next substantial storm to go thru there will do that.
pls!

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #552 on: July 02, 2020, 06:26:53 AM »
Today was a very special day in Barrow today. We can only assume the travels arrived from lands afar with cognac, IPAs, and also organic spinach:
pls!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #553 on: July 16, 2020, 05:13:32 AM »
BOMBOGENESIS 2020

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.
big time oops

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #554 on: July 16, 2020, 05:38:41 PM »
BOMBOGENESIS 2020

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.


First we dodged the bullets, then we dodged the cannon-balls and now we are looking at eventual bombs. What's next?

 ;D ;D ;D

F.Tnioli

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #555 on: July 16, 2020, 06:55:23 PM »
BOMBOGENESIS 2020

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.


First we dodged the bullets, then we dodged the cannon-balls and now we are looking at eventual bombs. What's next?

 ;D ;D ;D
Why, Tirpitz-sized artillery shell, i've posted a picture of one in the topic some dozen or so pages ago. Weighs 800 kilos and hits like a train full of explosives alright...
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #556 on: July 16, 2020, 07:13:15 PM »
First we dodged the bullets, then we dodged the cannon-balls and now we are looking at eventual bombs. What's next?

 ;D ;D ;D
Why, Tirpitz-sized artillery shell, i've posted a picture of one in the topic some dozen or so pages ago. Weighs 800 kilos and hits like a train full of explosives alright...

The Brits used 1000kg bombs to sink the Tirpitz.


Next I send PM i promise, sorry Oren.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 07:20:27 PM by igs »

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #557 on: July 16, 2020, 08:01:47 PM »
Gentle folks, please post here light humor and commentary that pops to your mind while reading the melting season thread, while refraining from posting such material in that thread to lighten its load.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #558 on: July 16, 2020, 08:05:50 PM »
BOMBOGENESIS 2020

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.


First we dodged the bullets, then we dodged the cannon-balls and now we are looking at eventual bombs. What's next?

 ;D ;D ;D
In 2017 the arctic dodged a huge cannonball. In 2020 I'm afraid the bombs will hit, no dodging.

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #559 on: July 16, 2020, 08:40:35 PM »

In 2017 the arctic dodged a huge cannonball. In 2020 I'm afraid the bombs will hit, no dodging.

It's crazy, innit? I mean, at this point we could possibly just coast along at average pace & still break records.  :( :o :-\ :'(

jens

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #560 on: July 16, 2020, 08:50:20 PM »
I have to say that all the people, who have been saying since Spring that this is going to be a big melting season, seem to be correct. Congrats, folks. Feels like I joined the forum in the right year - when things are happening.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #561 on: July 16, 2020, 08:55:55 PM »
I think the best sign of an ominous melting season is the number of old-timers that suddenly return to posting.

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #562 on: July 16, 2020, 09:05:23 PM »
BOMBOGENESIS 2020

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.


First we dodged the bullets, then we dodged the cannon-balls and now we are looking at eventual bombs. What's next?

 ;D ;D ;D
In 2017 the arctic dodged a huge cannonball. In 2020 I'm afraid the bombs will hit, no dodging.


Great job to open this thread I do my best to remember in time.


 8) 8) 8)

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #563 on: July 16, 2020, 09:06:07 PM »
I wish A-Team would post their thoughts on the conditions.

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #564 on: July 16, 2020, 09:36:08 PM »

In 2017 the arctic dodged a huge cannonball. In 2020 I'm afraid the bombs will hit, no dodging.

It's crazy, innit? I mean, at this point we could possibly just coast along at average pace & still break records.  :( :o :-\ :'(

Yeah, that really is the insane part to me as well.

I still can't stop laughing about what someone said when they were describing the CAA breaking up and how it may be possible to take the inner, inner northwest passage or as they said: the I can't believe it's not better passage

LOLOL
pls!

bbr2315

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #565 on: July 16, 2020, 09:43:24 PM »
It looks like huge chunks are about to "2016" in appearance on HYCOM. Judging EOSDIS, I believe the output.

Stephan

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #566 on: July 17, 2020, 10:26:02 PM »
Dear be cause,

isn't it time to change your "calculation" in your signature "2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021" according to this extraordinary melting season ?  ;)

kind regards Stephan
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #567 on: July 17, 2020, 10:34:21 PM »
I have to say that all the people, who have been saying since Spring that this is going to be a big melting season, seem to be correct. Congrats, folks. Feels like I joined the forum in the right year - when things are happening.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/03/

Quote
Often there is a debate as to whether the maximum extent in March is predictive of the minimum extent in September. Both have statistically significant downward trends, so it is expected that both will tend to have low extents relative to the long-term averages. However, the specific maximum extent in any given year does not correlate to the minimum extent. When the trend is removed from both time series or de-trended, there is essentially no relation between the two, showing the year-to-year variability in extent. Plotting the de-trended maximum versus minimum extent (Figure 2) shows a near-random distribution. In other words, a relatively high maximum is not necessarily followed by a relatively high minimum. One example is 2012, where the maximum extent ranked only eighth lowest in 2012, and now sixteenth lowest in 2020, but the minimum was a record low for the satellite record. Similarly, 2017 has the lowest maximum in the satellite record, but the minimum ranked only seventh lowest at the time, and now is at the tenth lowest maximum extent. The reason why the seasonal maximum extent and the September minimum extent are not correlated is largely because summer weather conditions strongly shape the September minimum.

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #568 on: July 17, 2020, 11:13:35 PM »
Dear be cause,

isn't it time to change your "calculation" in your signature "2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021" according to this extraordinary melting season ?  ;)

kind regards Stephan


Not if we reach minimum in January 2021 LOL [JK]

Phoenix

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #569 on: July 18, 2020, 12:06:49 AM »
Just a reminder, to really damage the ice a bomb cyclone not only needs low pressure, it has to be relatively long-lived and positioned so as to create long fetches. Right now I’m more concerned about the low earlier in the forecast bringing excessive heat and moisture from Siberia.

I agree 100%.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #570 on: July 18, 2020, 12:15:50 AM »
Well... some of the damage is already manifesting right now.  I am amazed anew every day.



Regardless of what happens from here on out, 2020 has carved out a deep new low range for Arctic sea ice for part of the year and will be one for the books.  In my appraisal this means it is already a very bad year for the ice.  Keep setting new lows for different days and sooner or later one of those days will be September 16th.  We definitely will never carve out new highs for any day of the year henceforth.

Maybe be cause will have to change his signature sooner than he expects?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #571 on: July 18, 2020, 12:44:19 AM »
Just a reminder, to really damage the ice a bomb cyclone not only needs low pressure, it has to be relatively long-lived and positioned so as to create long fetches. Right now I’m more concerned about the low earlier in the forecast bringing excessive heat and moisture from Siberia.
I agree 100%.
Phoenix - was telling us that worth a post?  I don't mind your willingness to poke at consensus understanding (as long as you stick to facts and don't cherry pick)... and my kvetching about your post is equally off-topic. 
   I'm just asking for a bit more discretion in sharing your musings.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #572 on: July 18, 2020, 12:56:19 AM »
It was my error, I hesitated before approving that post. At the rate of posts on the season thread, simple "I agree" posts should be replaced by silent "Like" instead.

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #573 on: July 18, 2020, 01:44:05 AM »
Dear be cause,

isn't it time to change your "calculation" in your signature "2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021" according to this extraordinary melting season ?  ;)

kind regards Stephan

 Indeed Stephen  :) .. not long since thought the same , but heard a Voice say ' you haven't seen 2021 yet ! .. or this August .  ;D .. b.c.

 p.s. I am sorry though that when you change your 'signature' the old one disappears without trace .. I like mine .. it may be there for years to come , or may soon be gone for ever . In the mean time  ..

« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 01:59:36 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #574 on: July 18, 2020, 02:08:30 AM »
I had thought of my summer of '16 quip .. What happens after the first ice free Arctic ?  'What happens ? Trump gets re-elected' .. but I'd rather not see it every time i posted .. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Mark Tough

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #575 on: July 18, 2020, 02:23:51 PM »
It's FRIV, not FRIZ. Please don't misspell him,

That wasn't a typo. It's a racial slur and was done on purpose.

I really doubt that - I haven't seen racism here in the ACIF at all, if I did I'd shout it out loud... I'm the ultimate lurker (here since the beginning) I read and learn so much but post rarely.

Please keep it polite - it's an incredible season and thanks to Oren and of course Neven for all of this - it is a pleasure to observe and learn.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #576 on: July 18, 2020, 03:05:49 PM »
Of course the trouble with your signature is that it pfffts after 2022.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #577 on: July 18, 2020, 07:46:01 PM »
Autocorrect strikes again.

Whatever, if Frivolous is not a black guy living in St. Louis (and he posts like he's on European time) this whole incident would not have occurred. Really nasty garbage shows up on line here in the U.S. by people who are not black using the images of people who are. We don't want that stuff to happen here.

Please let's get back to the observations and the science.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #578 on: July 18, 2020, 09:38:18 PM »
I have edited out some of GSY's comments, and moved some of the rebuttals here, trying to sort the mess. Hopefully GSY will be put on moderation ASAP.

Phoenix

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #579 on: July 18, 2020, 10:02:46 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555
...
i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.
The 2020 line is currently where I'd project the "2020's" average to be, so this decade, 5 years may be worse and 5 years better.

 
What strikes me is that the latest difference between this year and 2010's average is 902K km2. A huge difference and I think that it will be closer to a million in a couple of days.
As Friv says, it is insane!
Almost 700K km2 against 2012. Wow!

The difference between 1st and 2nd is now bigger than the size of Germany or California.

The lead over 2012 is bigger than France or Texas.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #580 on: July 19, 2020, 01:54:46 PM »
Something seems to be holding back the ice in the ESS close to the New Siberian Islands, but the water is supposed to be 10 meters deep there. I guess that these are shoals that are way more shallow? I just find it weird how the ice is stopped there in this pattern. Is there any other explanation besides very shallow shoals that don't show up on any bathymetry chart?
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oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #581 on: July 19, 2020, 02:24:23 PM »
Maybe it's the currents around the islands?

CalamityCountdown

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #582 on: July 19, 2020, 04:35:27 PM »
Apologies for the lame analogy, but the trend in arctic ice extent seems to me to echo the trend in global sea level rise. Just as sunny day flooding is now common place without major storms, it appears possible that 2020 may set a new low for season end extent, even without a GAC.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #583 on: July 19, 2020, 05:21:01 PM »
Maybe it's the currents around the islands?
That's a possibility. Or maybe an invisible alien ship that's parked there?  ;D
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blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #584 on: July 19, 2020, 05:26:17 PM »
They said the polynya in the Weddel sea was a hidden UFO landing base. It's only logical that bottomfast sea ice would be the northern UFO landing base because it must be the exact opposite, right? ;)

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #585 on: July 19, 2020, 05:55:37 PM »
Ah ok. So it's an alien elevator through the planet?  ::)
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #586 on: July 19, 2020, 05:56:53 PM »
Shhhh, don't tell everybody!

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #587 on: July 19, 2020, 06:04:14 PM »
Too late. It just got discovered!  ;D
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #588 on: July 19, 2020, 07:07:31 PM »
Hudson   - 71 %


OK, i'll do something i don't usually do: Making a prediction!

I predict next week we'll see minus 100%.

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #589 on: July 19, 2020, 07:44:38 PM »
Too late. It just got discovered!  ;D

The truth is out there !! Well; shi-i-i-t.... and I thought it was just a TV series.
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #590 on: July 19, 2020, 07:49:45 PM »
Is it any good? The TV-series i mean.

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #591 on: July 19, 2020, 09:04:25 PM »
I'd been keeping an eye on that little crescent for some days . Since I spotted it it has lost a little weight and donned a sombrero . An act of attempted concealment by the aliens ?  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 = 2022 ... ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #592 on: July 19, 2020, 09:07:05 PM »
Something seems to be holding back the ice in the ESS close to the New Siberian Islands, [...] *snip*

Perhaps uniquorn's thread has an answer - he has found a bunch of these there.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2890.0.html

blumenkraft

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #593 on: July 19, 2020, 09:51:14 PM »
Update of Jim Pettits "step by step" milestone graph.

BTW, i feel the need to praise Jim Pettit. His sea ice graphs opened my eyes sometime in the past. He has a talent of making data visual and accessible. One of the best out there!

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #594 on: July 19, 2020, 11:00:51 PM »
 I’ve been lurking hear for a few years, and I just wanted to say a big thank you to the whole community for the interesting and informative posts.

I also have to admit that it was only today that I realised quite how big the arctic seas are.  Someone made an offhand comment in the melting thread equating 2020’s current extent lead to the size of Germany, and for all the talk of century drops over the years I didn’t have a grasp of how big that was.

I am slightly astonished to discover the area of Wales (I am from the UK, so this is our standard large area comparator) is only 20,779 km2

This means that according to the Jaxa extent data the Arctic had been losing an area 6.5 times the size of Wales PER DAY on average for the whole of this month.  That’s 117 times the size of Wales this month alone  :o

kassy

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #595 on: July 19, 2020, 11:10:46 PM »
That´s a lot of drowning sheep.  :(
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #596 on: July 19, 2020, 11:24:21 PM »
That´s a lot of drowning sheep.  :(

Absolutely  :)

Juan C. García

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #597 on: July 20, 2020, 02:24:41 AM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?
Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":
« Last Edit: July 20, 2020, 02:33:57 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #598 on: July 20, 2020, 02:29:19 AM »
Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #599 on: July 20, 2020, 01:25:44 PM »
When you find out JAXA daily drop is -103k and your first reaction is "Yay! Slowdown!", you realize what a crazy month this has been.