Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Freeform season chatter and light commentary  (Read 132715 times)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2401
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 304
  • Likes Given: 20397
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #650 on: August 22, 2020, 04:56:44 PM »
Nice one glennbuck

But the song title is an example of shifting baseline sydrome.

Throughout civilisations' history, many people, tribes, cultures (earlier 'we's) have seen their world end by being conquered by civilisation. The first people, all people before colonialism, all of them were 'we' at some point. And they have seen their world end.

Having ended a multitude of other worlds, it is finally the world of civilisation itself that's ending.
The total destruction will finally stop, when almost nothing's left.


edit: and, in my view, a not-so-nice (understatement) future for all children to grow old in and have a chance of a safe life without deprivation and violence. I feel strongly for them and am extremely tolerant of their behaviour.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 06:06:53 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #651 on: August 23, 2020, 10:10:33 AM »
 ;D

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2401
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 304
  • Likes Given: 20397
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #652 on: August 23, 2020, 10:38:53 AM »
:)
That's a nice, shiny and effective mask. Too bad it makes breathing so hard.
Is the helmet against the rain? Must be difficult to luke with.

We could do with a lot less dark forcings btw; 3W/m² is much too much.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

igs

  • Guest
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #653 on: August 23, 2020, 06:27:41 PM »
;D


Just remember what's under the hood and we can see that it does not matter [JK]

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #654 on: August 24, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »
Totally agree, pretty sure this year’s theme song for the ice is

pls!

jens

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 63
  • Likes Given: 45
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #655 on: August 24, 2020, 10:04:29 AM »
It's odd that 2012 is such an outlier that nothing has got close to it, but looks like 2020 is at least going into that empty gap between 2012 and everything else thus far.

Also already wondering about implications for 2021. 2020 is serving as a nice build-up a bit like 2011 was for 2012. Also we are now in an era, when beating 2012 could/should happen basically in any given year. So yeah there is a lot of action to look forward to.

Some people have mentioned in the other thread that the Arctic is fundamentally entering a new phase. Feels like so. I personally wouldn't expect years above 4M km2 to happen any more. It's going to be an attack to go low.

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #656 on: August 28, 2020, 03:57:26 PM »
Looking at the wavy jet stream, reminds me of the Scream Painting.

mhampton

  • New ice
  • Posts: 12
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #657 on: August 28, 2020, 05:32:55 PM »
Not sure what thread to put this on, its a pretty interesting lecture on the thermodynamics of sea ice:



One of the silver linings of the pandemic is a huge surge in online scientific conferences.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2388
  • Likes Given: 2042
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #658 on: August 28, 2020, 05:54:41 PM »
Thanks mhampton, I'll cross-post it to the new "Arctic Newsfeed" thread as well.

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #659 on: October 03, 2020, 12:05:09 PM »
Thanks for the SMOS post. As we suspected, all that MYI exported to the Beaufort tail has nearly melted out, and will give no resilience against next year's melting season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#13f60898963e

"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero," Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

"Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 533
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 300
  • Likes Given: 441
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #660 on: October 03, 2020, 05:34:55 PM »
"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,"
I am baffled by the quote above, Glennbuck.  Maybe it needs more context?
« Last Edit: October 03, 2020, 05:57:42 PM by Pagophilus »

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 378
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 378
  • Likes Given: 806
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #661 on: October 03, 2020, 11:28:26 PM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#13f60898963e

"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero," Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

"Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."
    +1.  Nice catch glennbuck.  Note that the title of the January 2018 article is "We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says"  2.75 down, 2.25 to go?

     Not really anything factually new, but a useful article for the collection because:
1)  Authoritative speaker (ozone, Harvard, award etc.)

2)  Impactful message (climate change is serious business, here are some reasons why (Harvard - your new $10 billion campus is in a future flood zone, bye bye south FL, etc.).

3)  Short and to the point.
             
           But what I really like about it (in a blatant case of confirmation bias) is the way that the article succinctly introduces the moral component and complicity of policy makers. 
          "I don't understand how these people sit down to dinner with their kids," Anderson said, "because they're not stupid people."  That's been my zen koan for over a decade.

          Exactly.  The struggle is not about the facts.  The deniers know the facts better than what they let on.  It is precisely because they DO understand the facts that makes them fearful about what those facts require in response.  It is that psychological and moral interface that we need to address to create the unified broad scale effort that is the only way to get through this adolescent transition for human civilization.  Unless we all pull together in the same direction, this boat isn't going to move.

          Those of us fighting for solutions need to focus less on the factual arguments and more on heartfelt listening to folks repeating distortions cynically supplied to them by people who know better but choose to ignore reality for some mistakenly perceived personal gain.  We need to get to both the heart of the issue and its brain (the scientific and technical stuff).

          Our use of fossil fuels has been like a guy in his late teens and early twenties letting it rip, and then realizing one day that his party hearty lifestyle isn't working for the long run, or even in the short run when he confronts his illusions, delusions, and fears and faces the facts.  I'll stop there, because this is the freezing season thread, not the climate change salvation pulpit.  But thanks for reminding me what really matters about watching the Arctic sea ice not so slowly die. 
« Last Edit: October 04, 2020, 12:01:16 AM by Glen Koehler »

OffTheGrid

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #662 on: October 30, 2020, 07:34:45 AM »
Haven't popped in since my last post, near a month ago, been frenetic. Especially with the Ross ice shelf and transAntarctic mountains, Ross Island, East antictic dome vulcanism.
You've snapped the effects of the
  Tsunamis and Joekulups in those buoy motions Unicorn, there were a series up to and above half a kilometer high barrelling out over where Scott and McMurdo bases used to be, around the new moon. They refocused in the Bering sea causing a surge over 1 million tons per second of the whole width of Bering strait at up to and above 3kmph, and off the Alaskan and Siberian shelves under the slush pack.
Heads up. There's a Volcanic blast just triggered another round.
Pic is one about three hours ago. Heard the boom here in Rotorua.
This one is 1 km high at time of shot. Probably 2 km ramping up the Ross Archipelago. May have lensed into pyramid field 4km from peaks to holes north of Ross Island.

OffTheGrid

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #663 on: October 30, 2020, 07:46:11 AM »
From Hycoms Ross sea charts we've got flows perhaps coming out under that shelf alone ofa ballpark estimate around 10% of the total mass of Antarctic ice sheet if they were steady for a year, averaging over the last month.
Surface water temps east of south Island NZ peaked at 22C two years ago. Now they are 5C.
It's been snowing on the hilltops around Rotorua central nth Island most nights, some days for two weeks. In early summer. Hasn't even in deep winter for years.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #664 on: October 30, 2020, 08:26:20 AM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2388
  • Likes Given: 2042
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #665 on: October 30, 2020, 09:26:36 AM »
Above posts by OTG moved here, they don't belong in the original thread, and besides my reaction was similar to binntho's, I hope OTG can explain them better.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 598
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 187
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #666 on: October 30, 2020, 11:58:33 AM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.

Is it satire??!

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #667 on: October 30, 2020, 12:48:17 PM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.

Is it satire??!
Perhaps. I have previously suggested as much, also if you consider the tagname "OffTheGrid".
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 440
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #668 on: October 30, 2020, 04:48:46 PM »
North Island Snow: Desert Rd warning as wintry conditions hit highway
29 Sep, 2020 03:20 PM
Quote
Snow has fallen on the central plateau of the North Island as many regions across the country wake to a picture postcard but bitterly cold day.

Widespread frosts are sending temperatures plummeting below freezing in the snow-covered south and central New Zealand, while a dusting of overnight snow has sparked a warning to drivers using the Desert Rd.

This morning all MetService severe weather warnings and watches have been lifted across New Zealand, with snow and strong winds easing after two days of a wintry bomb cyclone.

But heavy snow and ice is still affecting southern highways, with a number of roads closed across Otago and Fiordland after two days of a wintry blast that saw snow fall to sea level.

The Desert Road is south of Lake Taupo.  Rotarua is north of that lake.  Snow, however, fell on both islands (from central North Island to southern South Island), and not just in the mountains. Snow is not an every year occurrence in the mountains near Rotarua (per Wikipedia) and late September snow must be very rare indeed.
So just because I don't understand some of what OTG was writing, some of it was 'true'.  And 25 years ago my home was off the grid - something to do with the lack of utility company power lines and the presence of solar panels.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

SimonF92

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 325
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 68
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #669 on: October 30, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »
North Island Snow: Desert Rd warning as wintry conditions hit highway
29 Sep, 2020 03:20 PM
Quote
Snow has fallen on the central plateau of the North Island as many regions across the country wake to a picture postcard but bitterly cold day.

Widespread frosts are sending temperatures plummeting below freezing in the snow-covered south and central New Zealand, while a dusting of overnight snow has sparked a warning to drivers using the Desert Rd.

This morning all MetService severe weather warnings and watches have been lifted across New Zealand, with snow and strong winds easing after two days of a wintry bomb cyclone.

But heavy snow and ice is still affecting southern highways, with a number of roads closed across Otago and Fiordland after two days of a wintry blast that saw snow fall to sea level.

The Desert Road is south of Lake Taupo.  Rotarua is north of that lake.  Snow, however, fell on both islands (from central North Island to southern South Island), and not just in the mountains. Snow is not an every year occurrence in the mountains near Rotarua (per Wikipedia) and late September snow must be very rare indeed.
So just because I don't understand some of what OTG was writing, some of it was 'true'.  And 25 years ago my home was off the grid - something to do with the lack of utility company power lines and the presence of solar panels.

Id like to use solar power but im not convinced its even possible in north western Europe. If there was "cloud power" maybe
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 18
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #670 on: November 07, 2020, 09:09:54 PM »
Although an ASIF aficionado for many years now, I hardly ever have the idea I can contribute anything meaningful, so I tend to keep quiet. In the following I try to analyse some trends in volume growth during winter months. It is quite long and I am not sure if it merits posting in the Piomas thread. I would be glad to hear what you think about it. Please don’t expect any fancy graphics, Excel is about as good as it gets. And sorry for the Photobucket watermark ads. I am not sure how to get rid of them (probably paying money).
I worked from the following assumptions:
1. In 1979, at the start of the satellite era, the arctic was just getting out of a more or less stable situation regarding sea ice volume, since it took some time until global warming was really making impact. By 1990 changes were well underway, so instead of taking 1979 as a starting point, i use PIOMAS volume data between 1990-2019. I think this is justifiable also because in climatology a three decade period is used as baseline.
Graphs depicting monthly volumes over these years show a pretty constant decline. See for example this graph of April volume over the years (any other month would do as well, although october and november show a bit more variance in recent years:



2. Since september ASI extent is getting lower over the years, there is more and more open water to refreeze. So you would expect ASI volume growth (Vgrowth) between october and april next spring to increase. And also that this above average Vgrowth occurs mainly in autumn. Once the arctic sea is frozen over and ice has somewhat thickened, Vgrowth will probably resume more normal growth rates. It takes us more or less to the end of the year lately until all high arctic seas are frozen over again.
This is indeed what you see when you compare the linear trendline in the graph depicting Vgrowth in the october-april period for example with Vgrowth between februari and april.
 



The linear trendline of Vgrowth in the october-april period has the biggest gradient and this gradient gets a bit smaller every period after that. If you put these gradients of the trendlines of Vgrowth from a specific month till the end of the freezing seasons (april) in a separate graph, it makes a good fit and corroborates nicely what is to be expected. Grapgh 4 is again for the 1990-2019 period.



3. Now for the main course and why this analysis may be relevant for this freezing season and ones to come. Many here on the ASIF regard 2007 as the year in which arctic sea ice extent and volume crashed in such a way that it brought about profound changes in sea ice state and dynamics. If this is correct and a threshhold was passed in the fysical state and behaviour of the ASI in 2007, then it makes sense to have a look at Vgrowth before and after 2007 separately.
 Graph 2 above depicting Vgrowth between october-april indeed suggests something happened in 2007. As an extraordinary meltseason resulted in untill then unknown amounts of open water in september, Vgrowth in the following freezing season 2007-2008 was - rather unsurprisingly - at an all time high. The same can be said about the freezing season following the 2012 melt out. But interestingly, although there have been quite a few big melting seasons in the last decade, this effect of extra Vgrowth caused by huge swaths of open water in september, seems to be waning over the years. At least it looks like that when when you break up the 1990-2019 period in the time frames 1990-2007 and 2008-2019, see graph 5.



Admittedly, the 2008-2019 time period is short and the variance here is rather large. So lets have a look at some other months-april freezing periods. This decline in extra Vgrowth over the 2008-2019 time frame clearly is most pronounced in autumn.




Indeed this is what you get when you plot the gradients of trendlines for volume growth in the different months-april periods:



There was a slightly positive trend in Vgrowth for any month-april period in the 1990-2007 time frame, but this is definitely not the case for the years 2008-2019. And especially not for the october-april, nov-apr and dec-apr freezing periods. To me this suggests that the extra refreeze in autumn is more and more being hampered by other influences such as extra heat uptake in summer, atlantification and higher air temperatures. Since trendlines of Vgrowth over the jan-apr and feb-apr periods are negative also, it seems that these influences extend into the deep of winter.
Of course the outcome of this analysis is strongly influenced by taking 2007 as a kind of tipping point. Maybe this is not justified. And maybe the period 2008-2019 is too short for trustworthy trendlines. But all-in all the results are remarkably consistent. So maybe we should expect much lower Vgrowth and thus Vmax in years to come.
Save another shift in dynamics like in 2007, which could worsen things considerably and is possibly happening as we speak, the 2008-2019 trendline for Vgrowth from oct-apr will be back at 15k km3 in 2025 (graph 5), just as it was in the years 1990-2007. Add these 15k to the max. 5k probably remaining at the end of october 2025 and you get 20k km3 in april (the simple Vapr lineair trendline in graph 1 predicts 19,5k for april 2025). Since summer melt is around 18 ± 1,5K since 2007, its hard not to get worried.
It wil be interesting to see what the monthly volumes will be this freezing season, but it is difficult to imagine they will not contribute strongly to this downward trends in Vgrowth.
I hope this lengthy analysis is of any use. If not, sorry for the long post. It was fun doing it though.  ;)

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 378
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 378
  • Likes Given: 806
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #671 on: November 07, 2020, 10:19:26 PM »
Thanks kaixo, interesting perspective. Jim Pettit has graphic along similar idea, as does gerontocrat (but I can't find his version)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2020, 01:52:12 AM by Glen Koehler »

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #672 on: November 08, 2020, 07:37:30 AM »
Excellent post kaixo and I for one learned something new from your analysis!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 18
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #673 on: November 08, 2020, 08:31:45 AM »
Thank you Glen and Binntho! And indeed, my approach was inspired by exactly that graph from Jim Pettit.  :)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2020, 08:41:31 AM by kaixo »

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 850
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 430
  • Likes Given: 154
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #674 on: November 08, 2020, 09:04:13 AM »
Kaixo's post deserves to be placed in an appropriate thread as it is considerably more interesting than  Freeform season chatter and light commentary would suggest.

As too snow in the central north island in September.
We often get   cold blasts  in early spring.
This does not bring snow to below 800 meters in the central north island  every year but often enough for it to be part of NZ's normal variability around the  Equinox. Though at a higher elevation than around Rotorua The central north islands ski season usually runs to late October.

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 18
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #675 on: November 08, 2020, 11:48:01 AM »
Thanks for your positive replies. I just posted it in the PIOMAS thread.

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 787
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #676 on: November 08, 2020, 02:23:58 PM »
Thanks kaixo, interesting perspective. Jim Pettit has graphic along similar idea, as does gerontocrat (but I can't find his version)

Kaixo makes some very interesting points.  If 2007 was really a tipping point (or some other major change in the arctic sea ice), then the trends in Jim Pettit's graph change significantly.  Try plotting the trends from 2008-2019 as kaixo suggests.

NotaDenier

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 102
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #677 on: November 11, 2020, 12:53:03 PM »
https://mashable.com/feature/climate-change-wikipedia/

The guardians of Wikipedia's climate page
An intensely devoted core keeps a bastion of climate science honest

Fellow travelers on our collective global warming journey of discovery.

Général de GuerreLasse

  • New ice
  • Posts: 68
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #678 on: November 14, 2020, 11:24:31 PM »
If it's spring 2021 that's coming, he's way ahead of schedule!  >:(  ;D
La cravate est un accessoire permettant d'indiquer la direction du cerveau de l'homme.
Un petit croquis en dit plus qu'un grand discours, mais beaucoup moins qu'un gros chèque.
Pierre DAC