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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #700 on: February 25, 2021, 03:35:18 AM »
What I do not like in this that Russian people seem to sit on some essential information on deteriorated state of the Arctic for personal gains within hydrocarbon industries and keep quiet until they rake in handsome profits. I believe there is a sort of "deep state" in Russia where real information is for business tycoons and military folks tied to Vladimir Putin (I think Trump tried to turn America similar but run out steam by offending too many people in the process by sharp tongue). The results we can see from lop sided polar vortex slung out far to the south like Texas and warm air replacing it on the North Pole. Huge volume of hyper dense ultra-cold polar air in low latitudes swells like a weather balloon running into mesosphere, result here being a lock-in of cold air in south like Texas, and a warm collapsing air blob on the pole (and winter freeze gone missing). I am just starting to get emotional (rather strong negative emotions) about all those business and military folks who seem to know more of things than they are willing to let others to know for their own agenda. This all leaves us questions: ice-free Arctic and Asian monsoon vanished, Atlantic winter rains gone Morocco, Algeria, Portugal, Spain and UK's water reservoirs totally dry. We were lucky (Sea Research Society + Arctic Methane Emergency Group) to present our concerns in UK national prime-time broadcast on both sides of 9pm news broadcast to raise some of these issues when yesterday's UN Security Council Meeting headed by UK PM Boris Johnson was being discussed. I think public does have now zero tolerance here in UK for all sorts of spin doctoring "rosy climates". Ongoing sea ice losses came well out thanks to AMEG's John Nissen. Sir David Beckham vanished middle of program possibly angered on discussion on possibility of downsizing international sports events to reduce air mileage and pollution, perhaps called out by UK's Football Association or FIFA, should have given a pack of sea ice to keep his head cool. >:(

I find Gerontocrats comment in the other strain (Ice Area graphics) just hitting the point:

Gerontocrat:
"Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 24, 2021, 07:21:22 PM »
From NSIDC Data - 3 sea ice AREA graphs)

The Atlantic Front continues to fascinate.
 
- The Central Arctic has lost 100k in sea ice area in 8 days, in that time moving from 15th to 2nd  lowest sea ice area in the satellite record in that time.
- The Greenland Sea has lost nearly 150k in sea ice area in 9 days, in that time moving from 21st to 3rd lowest sea ice area in the satellite record in that time.

On the other hand, the Barents sea gained over 200k in sea ice area from the 1st to the 16th of February, moving from 14th to 27th lowest in that time. Since then sea ice loss is just less than 20k, and the Barents sea ice area is still 25th lowest in the satellite.

How much is melt and freeze and how much is increased mobility is a question I cannot answer."

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tanker-cuts-previously-impossible-153300350.html
"The deepest ice encountered by the ships was about 5 feet thick. The vessels encountered no multi-year buildup of old ice on the route, however, and meteorologist and journalist Eric Holthaus called that a clear indicator of "a climate emergency.""
Will they update the models with ice thickness data from commercial shipping in the future.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #701 on: February 25, 2021, 03:43:50 AM »
(Moved here from freezing season thread. Emotions don't belong there)

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #702 on: February 26, 2021, 10:02:11 PM »
I do find it strange that while we all agree that volume is the best measure , we ignore what it says about where we are in the freeze/melt cycle . Peak volume is probably 2 or 3 months away , at which time melt finally exceeds freeze .. Neither melt or freeze are seasonal in that both are always ongoing , unless we have passed the point where that is true , yet twice a year excitement builds . Are the Inuit and the polar bears awaiting the news with bated breath ? AS IF ! :) b.c.

     Friends, Romans, Earthlings: As one who has disparaged Extent as an incomplete, superficial, and highly variable manifestation of Volume, I come here today not to bury Extent but to praise it.

     Yes, we all agree that if the question is how much ASI remains etc., Volume is the best measure.  But a major importance of ASI is its effect on Arcitc albedo and Earth system energy balance.  (That whole bit about white polar caps acting as reflective mirrors, that are turning into dark absorptive open water.)

     So while Extent has its problems (as all the metrics do), it is a way to track the albedo dimension of ASI influence on the climate system.  And Extent has the advantage of being the easiest dimension to directly measure.

     Technically, Area might be a better metric to use for that purpose.  But Area is derived by multiplying average concentration within each grid cell x the Extent, so while Area is more closely associated with the objective (tracking albedo status), that extra layer of abstraction and estimation introduces more error.  At least that's how I understand it.  Someone can correct me if that's wrong.

     Thickness is even more difficult to directly measure than Extent because while we can see the horizontal spread of the ice, it is a lot more difficult to see the vertical dimension.  Thickness is also important on its own because ice of different thicknesses has different qualities with respect to melt rate and mobility.

     Volume is a function of Area and Thickness, so suffers from the estimation error within each of its components.  But if you want to know how much ice there is, Volume is the only measure that describes that.

     The ease of access and direct measurability for each metric decreases with how comprehensive is the information it provides.  It is kind of like renovating a house - you can have Speed, Quality, or Cheap.  But you can't have all three at once, so you have to choose where you are willing to compromise.

     Extent, simply being the outer edge of the ice (>15% concentration), is at first appearance an inadequate way to measure the status of ASI upon which the habitability of our planet depends (a realization which is relatively new to many of us, and which is still unappreciated by too many of us).  But it works well enough, and thanks to JAXA, NSIDC, JCG and Gerontocrat we get daily updates that allow us to monitor the situation with day to day granularity. 

     Thankfully, we also get Area updates, and thanks to PIOMAS, HYCOM, CS2/SMOS, Wipneus etc. we get regular updates on Thickness and Volume as well.  All of which is still amazing to me, having been born before the first grainy B&W picture of Earth from a distance was taken.

     I am frequently struck by the irony that our technical brilliance and ability to monitor and understand our planet advances at a rapid pace, and in a very close race with our irresponsible stewardship and self-defeating carelessness to foul our own nest.  I read shocking venal stupidity from the mouths of politicians on the same day I get to see stunning 4K video from Mars and read about advances in quantum manipulation that reach into the mystical realm.  These are interesting but strange times.  Let's hope the better half of our divided character wins the race.  Turns out our Moms and Dads were right, braun and brains are important, but character matters even more.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2021, 03:07:06 AM by Glen Koehler »

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #703 on: February 27, 2021, 12:11:37 AM »
Nice post Glen. Yes, all ASI measures have their merit.

HapHazard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #704 on: February 27, 2021, 12:47:18 AM »
...we all agree that volume is the best measure

Thanks Glen for your excellent reply! Reading the above caused me to grip my keyboard quite tightly...

Signed, a practicing Extenter.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #705 on: March 02, 2021, 08:31:09 PM »
Several of the wave buoys in the Bering Sea are out of action at the moment, but buoy 46073 managed to record this:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/02/the-2021-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#comment-406461
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...



And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #706 on: March 02, 2021, 09:19:18 PM »
No need to fear, it just needs to be posted in the appropriate thread.  ::)

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #707 on: March 03, 2021, 06:01:55 AM »
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...
I can telly you it is no fun trying to sleep in a forward bunk during a storm like that, spending half the time on the underside of the bunk above. And then literally being slammed down into your own bunk as the bow ploughs into the next wave.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #708 on: March 03, 2021, 01:50:04 PM »
For some strange reason my ears have been burning!

Via: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3299.msg302275.html#msg302275



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WildFit

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #709 on: March 03, 2021, 05:46:14 PM »
At risk of being scolded by Oren for this post, a graph can only say so much...
So here's an impression of what the Bering sea must be like at this moment in time...
I can telly you it is no fun trying to sleep in a forward bunk during a storm like that, spending half the time on the underside of the bunk above. And then literally being slammed down into your own bunk as the bow ploughs into the next wave.


True that, I had the pleasure around 60 years ago. While I was lucky and enjoyed the roller coaster, especially the being slammed down part, while my cabin-mate suffered day and night but the fun only lasted as long as I was laying flat on my back, every turning and bending was punished immediately. :D  12 Beaufort and a wave length of several hundred Meters that was.

I must say that I love those seas genuinely, usually spending as much time as possible outside, hiding each time the next waterfront flies over the flying bridge that had a clearance of 30-40 Meters above the waterline ( modern cruise ships often almost double that clearance )

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #710 on: March 11, 2021, 10:06:22 PM »
I was trying to find out records on the number of days the ports on the Lawrence used to be icebound in winter. Instead I found this

https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1962/4/7/to-open-an-icebound-seaway-just-blow-bubbles

To open an icebound seaway, just blow bubbles
APRIL 7 1962 PETER GZOWSKI
[/size]
Quote
[size=pt]On the St. Lawrence River winter gets shorter every year. The one that’s just over was the first in which there was regular navigation as far in from the Gulf as Three Rivers, Que. Quebec City is becoming a steadily busier winter port.

Quebec City is becoming a steadily busier winter port. Montreal’s inner harbor was opened in mid-March. Mostly, this has been because of improved ship design—more and more owners are building their vessels tough enough to chug through river ice. The next breakthroughs will likely come as man learns more about how to control the ice itself.

Late this winter a group of men from a Montreal engineering firm named Aero-Hydraulics, with the co-operation of the St. Lawrence Seaway Authority and an observer from the National Research Council, completed an experiment that may point the way to one of those breakthroughs.

First, they chopped a series of holes, fifteen inches wide and a hundred feet apart, through the thirty-inch ice

of the St. Lambert lock. Into each they lowered a strange-looking device, a polyethylene pipe, a foot across and twelve feet long. To each pipe, they attached a hose from an air compressor.

Five days later, the holes they had chopped had spread to twenty-five feet in diameter, and the ice at the edges was noticeably mushier.

What melted the ice, of course, was warmer water from near the bottom of the lock (water reaches its maximum density at 39.2 degree F). The pipes, or “guns” as the Aero-Hydraulics people call them, burp out their supply of condensed air so as to create a kind of up-draft in the water. This principle is not new in the world of ice-prevention. At least one firm, Atlas Copco, has been dealing in what it calls “bubbles” for several years now. “Bubbles” are sections of porous pipe from which condensed air forces out myriads of tiny bubbles. The aero-hydraulic gun, by contrast, shoots out just one bubble every 3 seconds. As a bubble comes out the top of the pipe, another is formed at the bottom, and the effect is what engineers call an expendable piston. One gun can lift three million gallons of water a day to the surface.

Does this mean the St. Lawrence Seaway is about to be opened all year? Not in the near future, anyway. If for no other reason, there’s just too much political pressure from the Maritimes, which rely heavily on winter traffic to their ports. Could it be done? The engineers who developed the new gun think it could. They maintain that as few as perhaps a thousand of their guns installed in Lake Ontario could keep the water moving into the Seaway warm enough to prevent ice formation.

Meanwhile, some of the new guns, like the older “bubblers,” are being installed at a few loading docks in Canada, so that ships can be moved around in winter and be loaded and ready to go at breakup. PETER GZOWSKI[/size]

Don't tell the Russians or the Northern Sea Route will be open all year
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #711 on: March 19, 2021, 01:13:30 AM »
Unlike last year at this time, this year there is not a pile of thick ice near the Fram Strait vulnerable to export. 
And Cryosat still insists there is

     It is confusing to have such inconsistency between HYCOMM, PIOMAS and CS2SMOS.  I'm leaving out Mercator because my brain can only handle three things at a time.  Cryosat is the source data for CS2SMOS so they should be the same.  My guess is that CS2SMOS is just a more smoothed version of Cryosat.

     I hope the differences can be resolved and a winner chosen by the end of the 2021 melt season.  Perhaps comparing what the different models say now vs. the end-of-season condition will allow judging which of the current estimates was most realistic.  The presence or absence of thick ice along the shore of ESS east of the New Siberian Islands (prominent band of 4M in PIOMAS, thin sliver of 3M in HYCOM, nothing more than 2M in CS2SMOS) could be a good test case.  Or it may not reveal much because if it disappears by Sept. the CS2SMOS fans would say "See, PIOMAS was wrong", and the PIOMAS folks would say "There was a lot of melt along the shore of the ESS this year."

    Perhaps the analysis of thickness data from MOSAIC will bring improvement and better harmonization of thickness models.  To the degree feasible, it would be great to get model validation data by measuring the actual thickness at sites where the models disagree.  Maybe the U.S. and Soviet (and who else?) submarines playing cat and mouse in the Arctic Ocean could take Sundays off to resurface, take some ice cores, then go back at it on Mondays. 

    A profile of the late great Wally Broecker said he used discrepancies as his best learning opportunities.  I hope somebody is doing a PhD on the great ASI thickness model debate.  Carl Sagan said "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".  A corollary is "Different claims require that not everybody is correct," (not necessarily that somebody is right and somebody is wrong because they might ALL be wrong).  John Lennon said "Just Gimme some Truth!" 
« Last Edit: March 19, 2021, 01:37:13 AM by Glen Koehler »

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #712 on: March 19, 2021, 04:17:06 AM »
Unlike last year at this time, this year there is not a pile of thick ice near the Fram Strait vulnerable to export. 
And Cryosat still insists there is

     It is confusing to have such inconsistency between HYCOMM, PIOMAS and CS2SMOS.  I'm leaving out Mercator because my brain can only handle three things at a time.  Cryosat is the source data for CS2SMOS so they should be the same.  My guess is that CS2SMOS is just a more smoothed version of Cryosat.

     I hope the differences can be resolved and a winner chosen by the end of the 2021 melt season.  Perhaps comparing what the different models say now vs. the end-of-season condition will allow judging which of the current estimates was most realistic.  The presence or absence of thick ice along the shore of ESS east of the New Siberian Islands (prominent band of 4M in PIOMAS, thin sliver of 3M in HYCOM, nothing more than 2M in CS2SMOS) could be a good test case.  Or it may not reveal much because if it disappears by Sept. the CS2SMOS fans would say "See, PIOMAS was wrong", and the PIOMAS folks would say "There was a lot of melt along the shore of the ESS this year."

    Perhaps the analysis of thickness data from MOSAIC will bring improvement and better harmonization of thickness models.  To the degree feasible, it would be great to get model validation data by measuring the actual thickness at sites where the models disagree.  Maybe the U.S. and Soviet (and who else?) submarines playing cat and mouse in the Arctic Ocean could take Sundays off to resurface, take some ice cores, then go back at it on Mondays. 

    A profile of the late great Wally Broecker said he used discrepancies as his best learning opportunities.  I hope somebody is doing a PhD on the great ASI thickness model debate.  Carl Sagan said "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".  A corollary is "Different claims require that not everybody is correct," (not necessarily that somebody is right and somebody is wrong because they might ALL be wrong).  John Lennon said "Just Gimme some Truth!"
If you had a torpedo shaped underwater device with a propeller and wings to make it go up and down in the water column, would you be able to power it with a piezoelectric generator and measure ice thickness uninterrupted the whole year round?

Does such a device exist? From the surface to 10m depth, you double the pressure, and every 10 meters you get another 1 bar of pressure. So 6 bar at 50m depth. And the same energy again when you go back up and reverse the process...

How much energy would you be able to generate with a piezoelectric generator, and could that energy power a measuring torpedo under the ice?

I've been thinking about this for so long... Can anyone help me with the calculations? I have no idea if a device like this could ever work...

I also have a design in my head to generate power with a piezoelectric generator in the ocean, but I lack all the education to do the calculations...

Can anyone help me out of my misery?

(it's alcohol day. I hope I'm still making sense...)

There's a little problem of buoyancy... The propeller and the wings would have to be able to overcome positive and negative buoyancy of the piezoelectric generator...
You could use current for that in an oceanic piezoelectric generator, but now I just gave away my brilliant idea that was gonna make me rich... :'(

PLEASE HELP!
If we could figure this out, we wouldn't have to worry about energy ever again... Because it's so simple... I can imagine underwater kites going up and down in the water column to generate infinite clean power...

I just need to figure out how efficient that would be... And I don't know how...  :(
« Last Edit: March 19, 2021, 04:38:55 AM by Freegrass »
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #713 on: March 19, 2021, 05:42:51 AM »
... it would be great to get model validation data by measuring the actual thickness at sites where the models disagree.  Maybe the U.S. and Soviet (and who else?) ...

Perhaps not the Soviets! But the Russians sail along the Siberian coast all winter, and presumably register location and ice thickness continously. Does anybody have any friends in Северный флот ?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #714 on: March 19, 2021, 05:44:44 AM »
A torpedo shaped device that creates it own piezoelectric energy by propelling itself forward so it can go up and down in the ocean column with its own wings and engine to create more energy to move forward and up and down is basically a perpetual motion device, isn't?

Is it possible? Or did I smoke too much shit?
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #715 on: March 19, 2021, 05:48:22 AM »
A torpedo shaped device that creates it own piezoelectric energy by propelling itself forward so it can go up and down in the ocean column with its own wings and engine to create more energy to move forward and up and down is basically a perpetual motion device, isn't?

Is it possible? Or did I smoke too much shit?
Perpetual motion devices are certainly considered outside the realms of the possible. And the device you describe would not function - I think a small nuclear battery like they use in satellites would be the best bet.

Anyone for crowdfunding our very own nuclear sub in the Arctic?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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interstitial

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #716 on: March 19, 2021, 05:51:48 AM »
Unlike last year at this time, this year there is not a pile of thick ice near the Fram Strait vulnerable to export. 
And Cryosat still insists there is

     It is confusing to have such inconsistency between HYCOMM, PIOMAS and CS2SMOS.  I'm leaving out Mercator because my brain can only handle three things at a time.  Cryosat is the source data for CS2SMOS so they should be the same.  My guess is that CS2SMOS is just a more smoothed version of Cryosat.

     I hope the differences can be resolved and a winner chosen by the end of the 2021 melt season.  Perhaps comparing what the different models say now vs. the end-of-season condition will allow judging which of the current estimates was most realistic.  The presence or absence of thick ice along the shore of ESS east of the New Siberian Islands (prominent band of 4M in PIOMAS, thin sliver of 3M in HYCOM, nothing more than 2M in CS2SMOS) could be a good test case.  Or it may not reveal much because if it disappears by Sept. the CS2SMOS fans would say "See, PIOMAS was wrong", and the PIOMAS folks would say "There was a lot of melt along the shore of the ESS this year."

    Perhaps the analysis of thickness data from MOSAIC will bring improvement and better harmonization of thickness models.  To the degree feasible, it would be great to get model validation data by measuring the actual thickness at sites where the models disagree.  Maybe the U.S. and Soviet (and who else?) submarines playing cat and mouse in the Arctic Ocean could take Sundays off to resurface, take some ice cores, then go back at it on Mondays. 

    A profile of the late great Wally Broecker said he used discrepancies as his best learning opportunities.  I hope somebody is doing a PhD on the great ASI thickness model debate.  Carl Sagan said "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".  A corollary is "Different claims require that not everybody is correct," (not necessarily that somebody is right and somebody is wrong because they might ALL be wrong).  John Lennon said "Just Gimme some Truth!" 

HYCOM is made in conjunction with and for the US navy. Ice thickness is a mission critical parameter to submarines hiding below the surface because below a threshold thickness satellites can detect the wake of submarines. Lidar from submarines up to the 1980's are publicly available. I have no doubt the HYCOM model funded mostly by the US navy and primarily designed for US navel operations benefits from more timely lidar sub data. At this point lidar on subs is the most accurate way to measure thickness at more than one spot at a time.
When the Polarstern was able to quickly move to the pole because their was little to no ice that is what HYCOM showed. HYCOM uses all available data to accurately portray conditions now. HYCOM focus is on producing the most accurate thickness data on the day it is produced.

climate models use satellite data to provide comparable data overtime. where your model fails it can be instructive to your understanding. Major differences were observed in the PIOMASS data during the Polarstern cruise. This is seems to be the driver behind the new CryoSat thickness algorithm.

Someone is working on an algorithm to create thickness product from Cryosat data. According to the creators it is a work in progress that needs to be validated with a number of field measurements. It is not a simple problem of this absorbance
 equals this thickness. The complexity is ice formed in different ways reflect differently and different wavelengths need to be used. Sorting all that out will take some time.

kassy

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #717 on: March 19, 2021, 09:47:38 AM »
Anyone for crowdfunding our very own nuclear sub in the Arctic?
Last year there was a short time where the Polarstern would have to leave their flow if it had drifted into Russian waters.
So for our own sub we probably need permission to move through the seas and that might be problematic especially since we would like to snap pictures at much of the same locations where the other subs should be hiding...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #718 on: March 19, 2021, 09:59:47 AM »
Anyone for crowdfunding our very own nuclear sub in the Arctic?
Last year there was a short time where the Polarstern would have to leave their flow if it had drifted into Russian waters.
I think the rule is that international waters start 12 nautical miles from shore. So that leaves quite a few km2 for us to splash around in!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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kassy

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #719 on: March 19, 2021, 10:44:51 AM »
Would be nice but as a dedicated landlubber i don´t know the details. Also no idea of the relative price tags. Last year quite some of the deployed buoys failed early so around then i was musing if we could crowdfund more of those, maybe built to a slightly higher standard and then deploy them in areas of interests were they are lacking.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #720 on: March 19, 2021, 05:15:46 PM »
<snip> The complexity is ice formed in different ways reflect differently and different wavelengths need to be used. Sorting all that out will take some time.
     Thanks for the great info interstitial!  I wonder if with less MYI and more FYI the overall complexity of the ice composition is getting simpler.
     
<snip> Perhaps not the Soviets! But the Russians ...
     D'oh!  It's only been 30 years since it dissolved, I just need some time to adjust. 
     My only excuse is that
     a) I'm a child of the Sputnik generation, so "Soviet" was kind of burned into my circuits, and

     b) I've been reading lately about the technology of the Apollo missions and the U.S. - Soviet space race. 
      Which has been really eye-opening.  The engineering done for Apollo was brave, brilliant, and shockingly primitive.  For example, the computer controller for the Saturn V rocket had a ridiculously small amount of storage for code instructions, and each bit (not even byte) was physically crafted by dextrous women running two wires through a metal loop.  To code the thing each of those metal rings had to be individually set to 0 or 1 by touching it with a magnetized probe, without touching the neighboring rings.  Lots of opportunity, and no room, for error.
      That computer was located inside the fuselage next to horrendous temperature extremes, and those little magnetic rings got severely shaken during liftoff.  It's amazing that rocket didn't blow up every time. 
       And then there's the little-reported story of the Apollo 7 crew that in mid-flight told their ground control supervisors to piss-off, it's our asses in the can up here, so we're doing it our way.  And none of them ever got another flight.  Lots of human drama alongside the engineering. 
       And I gotta give credit to Buzz Aldrin who, especially compared to Neil Armstrong, has been portrayed as somewhat of a second-fiddle goofball just along for the ride.  That portrayal is wrong.  Aldrin earned his spot as one of the chosen ones through guts, performance, engineering/test pilot brilliance, and being the acknowledged master of trajectory calculation.
   
« Last Edit: March 20, 2021, 10:16:32 PM by Glen Koehler »

Sepp

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #721 on: March 19, 2021, 08:59:52 PM »
The engineering done for Apollo was brave, brilliant, and shockingly primitive. 

Then you might like this comparison between the combined computing power for the Apollo 11 mission and an USB-C charger: https://forrestheller.com/Apollo-11-Computer-vs-USB-C-chargers.html

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #722 on: March 20, 2021, 12:50:31 AM »
I do not know if the ice is getting simpler but even with first year ice there are many different types of ice

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #723 on: March 20, 2021, 01:48:54 AM »
<Moon landing denial not allowed, removed. O>
« Last Edit: March 20, 2021, 03:54:29 PM by oren »
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #724 on: March 20, 2021, 11:48:53 AM »
The Vernal Equinox happened this morning.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #725 on: March 20, 2021, 07:33:59 PM »
All you really need is to sheath your glider in a wax that melts at about -1C and coat it with rubber. The expansion will give you positive buoyancy to glide upwards, near surface it freezes, contracts and you glide down. Trivial battery capacity would be required for it to autonomously rescue itself from situations where the temperature differential stops this working. A propellor/turbine for charging during gliding, or powered flight is trivial. You could also pressurise an emergency compressed air blowtank by capturing a bubble at the surface, everytime you come up in a lead to transmit, and using depth to pressurise it into your storage tank.
Wax piston actuators have been used in engineering for a very long time.
Such a vessel equipped with all the necessary sensors nav and com systems could be built for under 500€ these days. A midrange cellphone reprogrammed could handle most of it. You can find plenty of kids with the necessary skills and experience on YouTube.

For those interested in the electronic design constraints of the satellites we rely on for viewing and data of the polar regions, and Apollo, it's a far more difficult business than for submersibles. I attach a PDF from MIT satellite and probe design school for your reading pleasure.

A torpedo shaped device that creates it own piezoelectric energy by propelling itself forward so it can go up and down in the ocean column with its own wings and engine to create more energy to move forward and up and down is basically a perpetual motion device, isn't?

Is it possible? Or did I smoke too much shit?
Perpetual motion devices are certainly considered outside the realms of the possible. And the device you describe would not function - I think a small nuclear battery like they use in satellites would be the best bet.

Anyone for crowdfunding our very own nuclear sub in the Arctic?

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #726 on: March 20, 2021, 07:43:20 PM »
If that attachment doesn't work for you.
Here's a sharing link.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10wlJLRRIVvE19KqkdUY8v1KMPJ3gbXVL/view?usp=drivesdk

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #727 on: March 20, 2021, 11:31:05 PM »
<Moon landing denial not allowed, removed. O>

I ask a question.

Is it possible to quantify the computer power necessary to achieve the moon landing ?

Is it possible for a computer historian to quantify the amount of computer power available to scientists at the time of the moon landing ?
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #728 on: March 21, 2021, 12:06:07 AM »
<Moon landing denial not allowed, removed. O>

I ask a question.

Is it possible to quantify the computer power necessary to achieve the moon landing ?

Is it possible for a computer historian to quantify the amount of computer power available to scientists at the time of the moon landing ?
Fact: Moon landings happened. Fact: available computer power was enough to achieve said landings. Therefore: supposed computer historian is wrong, useless to discuss.

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #729 on: March 21, 2021, 01:32:43 AM »
     Hi Oren - IMHO opinion swatting away moon landing deniers, Q-anon or other idiocy does not even warrant being shown and taking up space even in the Freeform forum.  Just whack them so we can stay in the real-o-sphere.  Thanks for your excellent moderating service to ASIF and humanity.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 02:06:18 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #730 on: March 21, 2021, 03:19:09 AM »
     Hi Oren - IMHO opinion swatting away moon landing deniers, Q-anon or other idiocy does not even warrant being shown and taking up space even in the Freeform forum.  Just whack them so we can stay in the real-o-sphere.  Thanks for your excellent moderating service to ASIF and humanity.

Agreed thanks Oren.

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #731 on: March 21, 2021, 06:07:53 AM »
Fact: Moon landings happened. Fact: available computer power was enough to achieve said landings.
The moon landings did not rely on computer power. Nor did most of the early NASA space program, up to and including the moon landings. That is not to say that the computing power they had didn't help, but they would have managed without.

When an Apollo and a Soyuz docked with each other in 1975, the Americans were amazed to discover that he Russians had no computers. They had every and all instructions and calculations that a computer would have on a series of microfiches in a small viewer (look it up!), prepared over decades by hand by Russian "calculators" (of the human kind).

Alfred von Neuman famously predicted that a fusion bomb could not be built without the computational powers of digital computers, but the Soviets managed without using a design that was simpler than the American which proved to be overly complicated.

Nowadays, especially for youngsters, is difficult to envision that complicated things can be done without computers. As for comparing the total computing power of the 1950s when development of thermonuclear devices and the space race were in full swing, it would have been 1/10E21 of today's computing power (given a modified Moore's law, doubling every 12 months which is not unrealistic).

That is 1/1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 - and every ten years add another 3 zeroes.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #732 on: March 21, 2021, 07:35:08 AM »
LETS PLAY SPOT THE DIFFERENCE!
Can anyone spot the difference between these NASA Vs ESA images of Kane basin and the main Beaufort exit from the CAA???  :( :o

https://www.polarview.aq/tablelisting/sar

<Moved here from melting season thread. Huge font and some nonsense removed. O>
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 10:23:56 AM by oren »

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #733 on: March 21, 2021, 09:31:37 AM »
The only way we are going to get realistic metrics on Area, albedo etc is to analyse the S1 radar tiles.
The jpeg2000 8 bit grey scale versions are probably the best ones to do this on, and are not even very large files to download. Typically about 5-15Mb.
Sure at takes about three days to get full polar coverage because the Euro satellites are in geostationary polar orbits which keep them in the slot between the proton and electron belts, while the published metrics are full Arctic daily from satellites in low earth orbits.

<Apparent nonsense removed. O>

This is not good enough. Trying to model that problem away in the data does not work.
Can we do weighted pixel  counts on 15000x 15000 pixel 8 bit gray-scale tiles?it should be easy enough to get decent thickness and volume metrics from this even as it's pretty much only the tops of pressure ridges, bergs, and  multiyear floe fragments that are looking white and therefore dry right now. Some snow on ace around the edges of the pack almost white, cause it's chilled by saltwater below freezing. Melt ponds and open water are already widespread and black, with most of the Arctic darker greys from waterlogged ice. If we can identify the floes with imbs then they would give us a reference point. Theres been quite a lot of S1 imagery on the forum which can be useful, where known conditions exist, like the mosaic tracking last year for example.

<Reference to other users removed. Feel free to make your own analysis/pixel crunching. O>
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 03:28:29 PM by oren »

Phil.

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #734 on: March 21, 2021, 03:23:17 PM »
Fact: Moon landings happened. Fact: available computer power was enough to achieve said landings.
The moon landings did not rely on computer power. Nor did most of the early NASA space program, up to and including the moon landings. That is not to say that the computing power they had didn't help, but they would have managed without.

As I recall much of the 'computations' used analog computers not digital!

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #735 on: March 21, 2021, 04:27:10 PM »
Fact: Moon landings happened. Fact: available computer power was enough to achieve said landings.
The moon landings did not rely on computer power. Nor did most of the early NASA space program, up to and including the moon landings. That is not to say that the computing power they had didn't help, but they would have managed without.

As I recall much of the 'computations' used analog computers not digital!
Some believe analog computing has a future, e.g. from Cornell University
https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.07268
[Submitted on 14 Feb 2021]
About using analog computers in today's largest computational challenges
Sven Köppel, Bernd Ulmann, Lars Heimann, Dirk Killat

Quote
Analog computers perceive a revival as a feasible technology platform for low precision, energy efficient and fast computing. We quantify this statement by measuring the performance of a modern analog computer and comparing it with traditional digital processors. General statements are made about ordinary and partial differential equations. As an example for large scale scientific computing applications, computational fluid dynamics are discussed. Several models are proposed which demonstrate the benefits of analog and digital-analog hybrid computing.

And if you are a complete IT / Mathematics nerd goto https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.07268.pdf

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #736 on: March 21, 2021, 04:43:59 PM »
Folks please recall this thread is supposed to be at least marginally related to the ice... though I don't moderate it much. Freeform chatter is encouraged but when it gets heavy it is best served in its own thread.
And yes most of the time I will remove denial posts without warning or leftovers. Thankfully not many of these in the Cryo section.

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #737 on: March 21, 2021, 07:46:38 PM »
Oren, I object to you deleting and insulting my describing the factual realities of what satellites In various polar orbits can achieve.
You probably have the math skills to work it out yourself if you read the paper "spacecraft charging and radiation hazards in the earth orbital environment" I provided above. Don't worry, it's open access published now.
As an expert in this matter, who has personal friends who have worked in the engineering and design at NASA and other countries spacecraft design facilities. I suggest perhaps you should consider the core principal of science.

Falibilism.

 Belief held with certainty is a dangerous thing.

 It's a huge virtue to be pleased and joyful to be told you are mistaken about something. Finding out you've just built a bridge on foundations of quicksand , rather than the granite you heard rumours it was, is better than saying "No it isn't!" And cutting the ribbon to open it for tragic results to soon follow.

Finding out you were mistaken means there's more Joy to be had in learning new and interesting things.


oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #738 on: March 22, 2021, 01:37:25 AM »
OTG, I am losing patience fast. What is the relevance between a 2001 paper on design principles and hazards to spacecraft and your claims of sea ice data being unreliable or outright false? I will not have nonsense posted on this forum.

Phil.

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #739 on: March 22, 2021, 03:38:48 PM »
Fact: Moon landings happened. Fact: available computer power was enough to achieve said landings.
The moon landings did not rely on computer power. Nor did most of the early NASA space program, up to and including the moon landings. That is not to say that the computing power they had didn't help, but they would have managed without.

As I recall much of the 'computations' used analog computers not digital!
Some believe analog computing has a future, e.g. from Cornell University
https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.07268
[Submitted on 14 Feb 2021]
About using analog computers in today's largest computational challenges
Sven Köppel, Bernd Ulmann, Lars Heimann, Dirk Killat


Indeed, until recently i taught a lab class that included an analog simulation of genetic control systems.

dnem

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #740 on: March 22, 2021, 05:49:50 PM »
Sorry to be OT, but:
https://www.businessinsider.com/space-travel-relied-on-slide-rule-2015-2

It's already pretty amazing that a computer with 64 Kb of memory was able to put a man on the Moon. But what's even more amazing is what NASA managed to accomplish without computers. That's where the slide rule comes in (oh, and it was black female mathematician, Katherine G. Johnson, who calculated the Apollo 11 trajectory to the Moon!).

A slide rule is a kind of computer itself—the very basic, very analog kind. Though it looks like a ruler, it's really a way to quickly multiply, divide, and calculate logarithms and other functions. Engineers used slide rules to process rocket propulsion data, perform everyday calculations, and come up with coordinates. And a Pickett slide rule was standard issue for Apollo program astronauts, who used them in space.


binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #741 on: March 22, 2021, 06:18:44 PM »
In danger of straying over the OT-horizon ... there are two main categories of computers, the digital and the analog. The Von Neuman model is used on all standard digital computers.

A "true" computer is programmable, and Von Neuman came up with the idea of programming the computer from it's own memory, using digital code. An analog computer is not programmable, since it is by it's very natue "analogous" to a specific problem. Hence not a real computer as judged by purists.

The very first computers used in anger (literally) were analog naval cannon aiming computers, which gave the US a surprising edge over the Japanese in the Pacific  - once over the equator, all Coriolis calculations have to be mirrored. The Japs were stumped, the shellbacks just flipped a switch.

The most powerful computer known to us is in fact analog, exists in some 8 billion copies and is each and every one more complex than the universe itself (at least, the number of possible paths within one such computer outnumbers the number of atoms in the universe).

This computer is not programmable as such, nor is it predestined by it's circuitry, in fact, it turns out to be highly flexible and adaptable, and matching it's functionality is the holy grail of computer scientists the world over.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2021, 06:50:30 PM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kassy

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #742 on: March 22, 2021, 06:49:33 PM »
Folks please recall this thread is supposed to be at least marginally related to the ice...

For things that are interesting but not really OT in this subforum or the others you can carry it over to the OTOT thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2995.0.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #743 on: March 23, 2021, 06:53:35 PM »

On Sun, 21 Mar 2021, 05:58 Peter Wadhams, <peter.wadhams@xxxxx> wrote:
Dear xxxxxl,
Sea ice restoration seems to me to be caught between two stools. (1) General cooling of the atmosphere to the point where ice re-forms is a massive exercise - as you say it requires 1 exawatt. This would solve not only the Arctic problem but the entire problem of global warming. (2) Targeted cooling based on methods which change the local albedo are much more feasible but I havent seen a sensible method yet. They all seem to have been devised by people who have never seen sea ice. What it needs is for the community of sea ice field scientists to stop messing with their career-building measurement projects and get together to brainstorm on ice enhancement techniques.
Best regards
Peter Wadhams

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #744 on: March 29, 2021, 08:02:45 PM »
no commentary on it yet , but every forecast for days has been predicting a Northerly storm over the Greenland sea .. many forecasts have had a 100hpa differential across the region . with temps set to plunge , I am preparing for the icy blast here in N.I. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Aluminium

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #745 on: March 29, 2021, 08:23:49 PM »
Wow.

nadir

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #746 on: March 29, 2021, 08:24:54 PM »
no commentary on it yet , but every forecast for days has been predicting a Northerly storm over the Greenland sea .. many forecasts have had a 100hpa differential across the region . with temps set to plunge , I am preparing for the icy blast here in N.I. b.c.
You mean the one forecasted for today or the little monster forecasted for this weekend?

nadir

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dnem

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #748 on: March 29, 2021, 09:13:23 PM »
The highest barometric pressure ever recorded was 1083.8mb (32 in) at Agata, Siberia, Russia (alt. 262m or 862ft) on 31 December 1968.

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #749 on: March 30, 2021, 10:42:25 PM »
Wow.

If I understand correctly, if this comes to pass, it would be the world record highest sea-level equivalent pressure ever recorded.
And it's still there in the latest run, over 1090 hPa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records#Other_categories

EDIT: Had a laugh at the attached image. Climate Reanalyzer simply has no idea how to even display such high pressures.

EDIT 2: The pressure is nowhere as high on the euro forecast. Maybe this is a bug with the recently updated GFS?
« Last Edit: March 30, 2021, 11:04:37 PM by grixm »