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Linus

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #750 on: March 30, 2021, 11:31:35 PM »
Hello all. I am a long time lurker who prefers to just read the posts because I don't have the knowledge or data to add anything to the discussion. I very much appreciate all of the incredible amount of knowledge that the regulars share on ASIF.
So, this article caught my eye as I am regularly reading about defense matters. The reason that I am sharing this here is because I think that some of you may find the embedded youtube video that shows the submarine surface through the ice and in doing so, it gives a very good look at the structure and thickness of the ice and the snow layer on top. Unfortunately, we cannot be sure of the exact location of the video (nor the date for that matter but it is supposedly taken during the current ongoing exercise). The close-up view of the ice begins at the 1:30 minute mark and ends at 1:58.
There is of course much more to the article, including a hole blown in the ice using an explosive device but that is not the part that I felt that folks here might be interested. It is that look at the ice that is pretty remarkable. If the video was in fact shot near FJL, then the ice looks to be little more than 1.5m or less in thickness, judging by the comparison of the mans torso as he stands in the hatch next to the ice.
I hope this is an OK place to post. I apologize in advance if not.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39971/russian-submarine-seen-surfaced-beside-huge-hole-blown-open-in-the-ice-in-satellite-imagery

Paul

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #751 on: March 31, 2021, 12:34:24 AM »
I think the GFS always forecast much higher pressure over Greenland than the Euro models but I think there is complications knowing how high pressure can get there due to the ice cap. It probably also explains why GFS tends to forecast more Greenland highs than the euro models do.

Either way, there is going to be a strong pressure gradient down the fram stright from this.

Freegrass

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #752 on: March 31, 2021, 12:40:54 AM »
I think the GFS always forecast much higher pressure over Greenland than the Euro models but I think there is complications knowing how high pressure can get there due to the ice cap. It probably also explains why GFS tends to forecast more Greenland highs than the euro models do.

Either way, there is going to be a strong pressure gradient down the fram stright from this.
And the impact on the ice will be what? All I see right now on Nullschool is a normal Fram export event and a little push on the ice away from the CAA...

(this could change rapidly of course with such an extreme weather event)
« Last Edit: March 31, 2021, 12:50:10 AM by Freegrass »
And so we pray...

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oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #753 on: March 31, 2021, 02:33:59 AM »
Hello all. I am a long time lurker who prefers to just read the posts because I don't have the knowledge or data to add anything to the discussion. I very much appreciate all of the incredible amount of knowledge that the regulars share on ASIF.
So, this article caught my eye as I am regularly reading about defense matters. The reason that I am sharing this here is because I think that some of you may find the embedded youtube video that shows the submarine surface through the ice and in doing so, it gives a very good look at the structure and thickness of the ice and the snow layer on top. Unfortunately, we cannot be sure of the exact location of the video (nor the date for that matter but it is supposedly taken during the current ongoing exercise). The close-up view of the ice begins at the 1:30 minute mark and ends at 1:58.
There is of course much more to the article, including a hole blown in the ice using an explosive device but that is not the part that I felt that folks here might be interested. It is that look at the ice that is pretty remarkable. If the video was in fact shot near FJL, then the ice looks to be little more than 1.5m or less in thickness, judging by the comparison of the mans torso as he stands in the hatch next to the ice.
I hope this is an OK place to post. I apologize in advance if not.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39971/russian-submarine-seen-surfaced-beside-huge-hole-blown-open-in-the-ice-in-satellite-imagery
Welcome, Linus. Feel free to contribute more, posts don't have to be Einstein-level perfections to be contributive. In my own experience, the first post is the hardest...

To the matter at hand, I believe this video was posted in one of the threads, and it's certainly very interesting.

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #754 on: March 31, 2021, 11:08:14 AM »
I think the GFS always forecast much higher pressure over Greenland than the Euro models but I think there is complications knowing how high pressure can get there due to the ice cap. It probably also explains why GFS tends to forecast more Greenland highs than the euro models do.

Either way, there is going to be a strong pressure gradient down the fram stright from this.
And the impact on the ice will be what? All I see right now on Nullschool is a normal Fram export event and a little push on the ice away from the CAA...

(this could change rapidly of course with such an extreme weather event)
GFS forecasts that the low retreats to the coast of the far North of Norway and then wanders back to centre over FJL by the 8th April, and still being a considerable low pressure is likely to drag ice to and down the Fram for a couple of days or more. But that's a long way ahead.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Aluminium

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #755 on: March 31, 2021, 09:12:15 PM »
It's still here. Pressure is becoming unreal when this high crosses ice sheet, well above sea level.

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #756 on: April 03, 2021, 10:42:57 AM »
It's still here. Pressure is becoming unreal when this high crosses ice sheet, well above sea level.

And yet still. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. GFS predicts 1091 hpa at max, while euro is only 1054 (though with lower spacial and temporal resolution than GFS on tropical tidbits, so it's hard to compare directly)
« Last Edit: April 03, 2021, 12:04:38 PM by grixm »

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #757 on: April 03, 2021, 11:59:44 AM »
whatever the pressure , the gradient remains impressive across Fram and the Greenland sea for the next 7+ days . Not really the start wanted for the season . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #758 on: April 03, 2021, 05:18:12 PM »
There is only 1 (one) weather station near to where the centre of that high is supposed to be at maximum pressure at around 06:00 hrs GMT on the 4th April. That weather station is code "EGP" at Summit Camp, located at 3,216 metres (10,551 ft) above sea level.

That means measured air pressure is just under 70% of air pressure at sea level. On the DMI website http://promice.org/WeatherArchive.html?promiceStationStationid=211&stationid=211 are published daily averages of each of the Greenland weather stations. As of now data is up to April 01. I wonder if one can get the complete hour by hour daily record from DMI?

Anyway in theory there is a 10% difference in air pressure between the Greenland High and the Low East of Svalbard. That difference should largely persist for several days. My guess is a lot of ice exiting West from the Barents and then South out of the Central Arctic ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #759 on: April 04, 2021, 11:10:35 AM »
Greenland High

Is it a record?
How do we find out?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #760 on: April 04, 2021, 11:22:02 AM »
 .. along with the ridiculously high pressure , the G'land plateau has 2m temps below -40'C and 850hpa temp anomalies > 24'C over a huge area . I've never seen a present/forecast like it ... these temps seem the lowest I've seen over G'land in the last 10 years .
  And downwind it looks like the worst by-passes N.I. with snow making it to Greece and Turkey .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #761 on: April 04, 2021, 12:30:13 PM »
.. along with the ridiculously high pressure , the G'land plateau has 2m temps below -40'C and 850hpa temp anomalies > 24'C over a huge area . I've never seen a present/forecast like it ... these temps seem the lowest I've seen over G'land in the last 10 years .
  And downwind it looks like the worst by-passes N.I. with snow making it to Greece and Turkey .
And on the far south coast of Greenland - melt yesterday and melt today, and look at all that sublimation along the East coast
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

P-maker

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #762 on: April 04, 2021, 02:21:15 PM »
Gero,

"Is it a record?
How do we find out?"

This site: http://vejr.asiaq.gl/simple/index.php?lang=en has an up-to-date list of hourly observations from a large number of Greenlandic stations. Highest MSLP readings in N Greenland this morning was around 1055 hPa.

Also had a brief look at various Promice data repositories. Apparently, these AWS' only send in a daily average of e.g. air pressure at station altitude during winter months (in order to save on the battery). Latest daily average was from yesterday.

Craig

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #763 on: April 04, 2021, 02:47:19 PM »
Been a lurker for a wee while but thought I could contribute on the Greenland data sets.

Summit station’s met data is active but a bit lost within NOAAs webpages.

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Link to last 72hrs available here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/site/sum/met.html


grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #764 on: April 04, 2021, 07:30:04 PM »
For what it's worth regarding pressure, there is indeed a large area over Greenland today with not even the slightest cloud formation. Not sure how normal that is.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #765 on: April 04, 2021, 09:27:30 PM »
Been a lurker for a wee while but thought I could contribute on the Greenland data sets.

Summit station’s met data is active but a bit lost within NOAAs webpages.

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Link to last 72hrs available here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/site/sum/met.html
Welcome, Craig. And thanks for the info.

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #766 on: April 04, 2021, 09:39:15 PM »
Been a lurker for a wee while but thought I could contribute on the Greenland data sets.

Summit station’s met data is active but a bit lost within NOAAs webpages.

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Link to last 72hrs available here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/site/sum/met.html

Been steady at around 675.7 hpa for hours now. How much is that at sea level? Record is 1084.8. Exciting.

If it does beat a record, who will be the ones to decide/announce that officially?

WildFit

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #767 on: April 04, 2021, 09:43:12 PM »
Been a lurker for a wee while but thought I could contribute on the Greenland data sets.

Summit station’s met data is active but a bit lost within NOAAs webpages.

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Link to last 72hrs available here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/site/sum/met.html

Been steady at around 675.7 hpa for hours now. How much is that at sea level? Record is 1084.8. Exciting.

If it does beat a record, who will be the ones to decide/announce that officially?

What he wrote: = 1083.3hPA

Craig

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #768 on: April 04, 2021, 09:46:03 PM »
It’s currently at 1080.7hPA.

It “warmed” up slightly a few hours ago and is currently at -48.4C which affects the calculation.

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #769 on: April 04, 2021, 09:48:24 PM »
Been a lurker for a wee while but thought I could contribute on the Greenland data sets.

Summit station’s met data is active but a bit lost within NOAAs webpages.

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Link to last 72hrs available here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/site/sum/met.html

Been steady at around 675.7 hpa for hours now. How much is that at sea level? Record is 1084.8. Exciting.

If it does beat a record, who will be the ones to decide/announce that officially?

What he wrote: = 1083.3hPA

No, I mean the equivalent for 675.7 hpa that I wrote, not 674.8 hpa that he wrote earlier.

EDIT: I found the source for the record on wikipedia: https://wmo.asu.edu/content/highest-sea-lvl-air-pressure-above-700m
Which again references this paper: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4186
« Last Edit: April 04, 2021, 09:55:03 PM by grixm »

Aluminium

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #770 on: April 04, 2021, 09:53:37 PM »
Multiplier is about 1.6. 675.8 hPa should be enough to surpass 1084.8 at sea level. 678.7 to surpass 1089.4.

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #771 on: April 04, 2021, 10:21:00 PM »
So it seems the equation highly depends on temperature.
https://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1224575267

According to this, the highest sea-level equivalent pressure actually happened earlier this morning, when the pressure was 673.4 hPa, but the temperature was as low as -57.5 C. This results in a sea level pressure of 1095.23 hPa at 3216 m.

Currently it is only 1081.2 hPa, despite the higher absolute pressure, because the temperature has rose to -49.6 C. However, the temperature is now dropping again, while the pressure is still high. So maybe the record will go higher soon?

Just my understanding, someone correct me if I'm wrong.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2021, 10:26:39 PM by grixm »

WildFit

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #772 on: April 04, 2021, 10:38:26 PM »

No, I mean the equivalent for 675.7 hpa that I wrote, not 674.8 hpa that he wrote earlier.



Ahh... misunderstanding then, that would make it IMO ( 1083.3 / 674.8 ) * 675.7 = 1'084.7448

Aluminium

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #773 on: April 04, 2021, 10:41:23 PM »
So it seems the equation highly depends on temperature.
https://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1224575267
Depending on which equation you use. Temperature was very close to current. Using this calculator, I didn't repeat it:

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

Craig

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #774 on: April 04, 2021, 10:52:22 PM »

Currently it is only 1081.2 hPa, despite the higher absolute pressure, because the temperature has rose to -49.6 C. However, the temperature is now dropping again, while the pressure is still high. So maybe the record will go higher soon?

Just my understanding, someone correct me if I'm wrong.


Yes you’re correct, temps play a big part so a further fall may set another record.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #775 on: April 05, 2021, 12:29:10 PM »
So it seems the equation highly depends on temperature.

Having been doing some background reading it seems that there is a continuing debate about how to go about reducing a high altitude pressure measurement to sea level. For example WMO Technical Note No. 61, p. 22 from 1964 mentions that:

Quote
8.1.2 The variable Ts is generally determined by the following formula

Ts = (T + T₁₂) / 2

where:
T = Station temperature at the moment of observation
T₁₂ = Station temperature 12 hours before the moment of observation.

However the Ke!san site references a 2012 WMO document which states that:

Quote
In order to compare barometer readings taken at stations at different altitudes, it is necessary to reduce them to the same level. Various methods are in use for carrying out this reduction, but WMO has not yet recommended a particular method, except in the case of low-level stations.

It looks as though getting a potential new record ratified will be a non trivial process!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

grixm

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #776 on: April 05, 2021, 03:07:19 PM »
I plotted the equivalent sea-level pressure the past two days. The red line is using the actual temperature, and the blue line is using the average between the temperature now and 12 hours ago, as per the WMO note in Jim Hunt's post.

Both appear to beat the record, though at different times and at different values. Remains to see what WMO says I guess.

Here is the data and formulas I used: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cKRWKqPGXBlbrMuPRFQ-P8KktfQSzeOIvbbqZaFKkxk/edit?usp=sharing

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #777 on: April 05, 2021, 04:38:30 PM »
Grixm , March 30th :
 'The pressure is nowhere as high on the euro forecast. Maybe this is a bug with the recently updated GFS?'

  ..or maybe it was a demonstration of how good the model is .. GFS seems to have been remarkably accurate and early in it's forecast . I have enjoyed following the weather and this thread .. thanx folks .

  here today started with snow .. beautifully dry fresh stars , followed by a brief blizzard and further showers of snow . the -10'C uppers and cold air should combine tonight to leave a covering by morning . This too was forecast over a week ago . b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Niall Dollard

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #778 on: April 05, 2021, 05:09:55 PM »
It is complex to derive the sea level pressure when you move above 800m. I notice WMO said they would look at each "record" on a case by case basis.

I have raised this issue (large pressure readings over Greenland) on weather forums before, as I noticed you would frequently see large intra model differences in SLP pressure over Greenland. JMA in particular gave very high readings.

Best reply to my query (from a UKMO meteorologist) was as follows:

"It's all to do with how MSLP is derived from surface readings, not what surface readings are used. Some centres will assume isothermal conditions, others some kind of lapse rate. It is easy to get big discrepancies depending on formulas used to correct to sea-level. There is no standard. Also isobar spacing will bear no relevance to wind which will follow terrain. Small changes in humidity and temperature will lead to large variation in derived MSLP. High pressure over Greenland usually means deep cold air aloft, warmer incursions will lower the derived MSLP. It's not really an issue for the models and it is a problem that goes back to the 1980s when terrain following vertical coordinates started to be used".

I have also looked back at other high readings from Summit Greenland and came across a local pressure reading of 686.7 hPa when the temperature was -46.5 C back in Feb 2018.

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #779 on: April 05, 2021, 08:17:25 PM »
Maybe we cannot prove a record for MSLP, but consider this.

A lot of highly qualified man hours and considerable amounts of money were recently spent on a major upgrade of the GFS system.

And what have we seen? The system graphics assumes that MSLP will not exceed 1090 hpa as is evidenced by that it failed to show isobars above 1090. That must mean that atmospheric pressure, real or modelled, broke the GFS system parameters.

Definitely a record of one sort or another ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #780 on: April 05, 2021, 08:55:34 PM »
The system graphics assumes that MSLP will not exceed 1090 hpa as is evidenced by that it failed to show isobars above 1090.

It depends where you look? There's certainly plenty of isobars on this GFS visualisation from Tropical Tidbits:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #781 on: April 05, 2021, 09:44:42 PM »
Maybe we cannot prove a record for MSLP, but consider this.

A lot of highly qualified man hours and considerable amounts of money were recently spent on a major upgrade of the GFS system.

And what have we seen? The system graphics assumes that MSLP will not exceed 1090 hpa as is evidenced by that it failed to show isobars above 1090. That must mean that atmospheric pressure, real or modelled, broke the GFS system parameters.

Definitely a record of one sort or another?
     Just to clarify - Climate Reanalyzer (CR) is not an official function of NOAA or GFS.  It is an independent system that pulls data from publicly available NOAA databases, including GFS, and makes them accessible through visualization (e.g. charts) and data files.  It could be that GFS output does not produce pressure values above a certain threshold. Or it could be that the CR display processing has an upper limit.  I don't know which, if either, is the case.  But if there are GFS or CR limits, they are independent of each other. 
« Last Edit: April 05, 2021, 11:16:53 PM by Glen Koehler »

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #782 on: April 05, 2021, 09:53:27 PM »
On meteociel pressures > 1070 do not appear , same with temps below -40'C and anomalies greater than 24'C .. a major handicap on occasions like yesterday . Tropical Titbits shows far too many isobars .. I would rather see 4 or 5 mb spacing than 2 .. just b.c.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2021, 10:23:56 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #783 on: April 05, 2021, 10:18:58 PM »
Maybe we cannot prove a record for MSLP, but consider this.

A lot of highly qualified man hours and considerable amounts of money were recently spent on a major upgrade of the GFS system.

And what have we seen? The system graphics assumes that MSLP will not exceed 1090 hpa as is evidenced by that it failed to show isobars above 1090. That must mean that atmospheric pressure, real or modelled, broke the GFS system parameters.

Definitely a record of one sort or another?
     Just to clarify - Climate Reanalyzer (CR) is not an official function of NOAA or GFS.  It is an independent system that pulls data from publically available NOAA databases, including GFS, and makes them accessible through visualization (e.g. charts) and data files.  It could be that GFS output does not produce pressure values above a certain threshold. Or it could be that the CR display processing has an upper limit.  I don't which, if either, is the case.  But GFS and CR limits are not related.
Ho hum, another idea bites the dust. I was hoping we had seen something that bust the known and assumed limits of maximum barometric pressure.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #784 on: April 05, 2021, 10:57:26 PM »
The pressure at Summit Camp is higher today than yesterday, and so is the temperature:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

longwalks1

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #785 on: April 06, 2021, 05:17:16 AM »
Just to say that the putting a very interesting days away forecast  and updating into this section seems to be about as perfect as it can get on this forum.   I have deeply enjoyed.   Mange tusen takk, many thousand thanks.

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #786 on: April 06, 2021, 11:04:47 PM »
As far as the Russians are concerned there is no Central Arctic Region

Attached is their current map of the Kara Sea - goes all the way to the Pole
There are detailed maps of areas closer to shore.

from site http://www.nsra.ru/en/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/icecharts.html

click to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #787 on: April 06, 2021, 11:33:32 PM »
Quote from: gerontocrat link=topic=2274.msg304991#msg304991<snip> date=1617743087
<snip> As far as the Russians are concerned there is no Central Arctic Region
Russia Considers Extended Claim to the Arctic Seabed
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-considers-extended-claim-arctic-seabed

<snip> Consistent rumors about the goal of this ambitious Russian mission can now be verified: The two vessels were harvesting data about the seabed, because Russia is contemplating a revised, enlarged submission to the UN’s Commission on the Limit of the Continental Shelf (CLCS).

A such enlarged submission could win Russia the rights to the seabed from close to the North Pole and down all the way to the maritime borders of Canada and Greenland 200 nautical miles from shore.
   
     The Russian Arctic Ocean map website does not show comparable maps for the Laptev and ESS, but given reports that they aim to claim rights to the Arctic Ocean floor for the whole length of the Lomosonov Ridge, right up to the Canada and Greenland 200 nautical mile limit, then their definition of Russian waters, in a regulatory sense at least, would extend the Laptev and ESS across the north pole and to within 200 miles of Greenland and Ellesmere.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 03:15:59 PM by Glen Koehler »

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #788 on: April 09, 2021, 12:40:45 AM »
no commentary on it yet , but every forecast for days has been predicting a Northerly storm over the Greenland sea .. many forecasts have had a 100hpa differential across the region . with temps set to plunge , I am preparing for the icy blast here in N.I. b.c.

   Exciting times since ,, including some beautiful dry snow here and tomorrow a return of the chill, some snow maybe  and -5'C  to follow , not ideal in April . no plums etc ...
 
   ... while in the Greenland Sea a lot of ice has moved 100-120 km  S in the last 7 days . The land fast ice is being scoured off the coast , i wouldn't be surprised if there were to be a build up of sea ice on the N. shore of Iceland . The nearest strand is only 50km away today .
   
   Thankfully the forecast is a little less threatening to the Atlantic front tonight in the mid-range at least ..  b.c,
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #789 on: April 10, 2021, 04:52:26 AM »
Arctic - Mirror of Life: RSE Symposium issues heartfelt condolences for the passing of our first Patron His Royal Highness Prince Philip this morning. Prince Philip was a great environmentalist long before the cause became popular rallying call among the public and he was instrumental in the founding of World Wildlife Fund (WWF). His son, Prince of Wales continues his environmental work focusing often on climate and Arctic region. We are greatly indebted in this regard. :'(

Press Speaker for RSE Symposium "Arctic - Mirror of Life"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50589065
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

be cause

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #790 on: April 12, 2021, 11:59:42 PM »
 
 .. so far the ascent has been the most orderly in years .. click on :

  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2021.png  . b.c.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2021, 12:29:15 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Ktb

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #791 on: April 13, 2021, 02:59:04 AM »
Still no update for the slater model. Currently 62 days behind schedule. Perhaps it is time for another email.
And, given a story to enact in which the world is a foe to be conquered, they will conquer it like a foe, and one day, inevitably, their foe will lie bleeding to death at their feet, as the world is now.
- Ishmael

dnem

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #792 on: April 20, 2021, 03:45:39 PM »
The "late April convergence" of the annual NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area curves is quite compelling!

Stephan

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #793 on: April 20, 2021, 06:59:04 PM »
The "late April convergence" of the annual NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area curves is quite compelling!
Which, if plotted in an x/y graph, would be almost parallel to the x axis, with the consequence of a BOE for late April in infinity...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #794 on: April 20, 2021, 07:44:59 PM »
The "late April convergence" of the annual NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area curves is quite compelling!
Which, if plotted in an x/y graph, would be almost parallel to the x axis, with the consequence of a BOE for late April in infinity...
Which explains perhaps why I felt that if that was broken this year it would be some sort of milestone.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Killian

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #795 on: April 21, 2021, 03:04:28 PM »
Arithmetic rules again, OK?

Your sarcasm/patronization is neither warranted nor appreciated.

FYI, I ran back and forth in Worldview from early April to the day I posted to track the floes to get a fair idea which floes made it out during that time, then used the Worldview area calculation tool to measure area.

So, yeah, math wins. So does common sense: If I came up with the right answer, I had to have done *something* to get there, right? Then I posted here so people with more maths chops than I could confirm... without hostility, preferably.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #796 on: April 21, 2021, 05:07:19 PM »
A. I very much doubt Gero was patronizing or hostile. Rather I am guessing he was happy that an alternative estimation method gave the same answer.
B. Obviously, math rules, yours as well as his.

Killian

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #797 on: April 21, 2021, 08:19:12 PM »
A. I very much doubt Gero was patronizing or hostile. Rather I am guessing he was happy that an alternative estimation method gave the same answer.
B. Obviously, math rules, yours as well as his.

Interpretation of language is my expertise (15 years teaching language) as much as his might be ASI math. That response cannot be interpreted the way you do. The "OK?" there can only be meant negatively. E.g.: He was being rude, OK? <- See? That is not a friendly framing no matter how one slices it.

Had it been meant as you state it would *have to be* written something like this: "Arithmetic rules." or "Good estimate, here's the math," etc.

Not worth carrying this on; I said what I had to say.

Anywho...

Cheers

Jim Hunt

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #798 on: April 21, 2021, 11:12:33 PM »
Interpretation of language is my expertise (15 years teaching language)

Nonethless it seems you are unfamiliar with certain native English humorous vernacular?

FYI: https://wordhistories.net/2017/11/05/rules-ok-origin/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #799 on: April 21, 2021, 11:21:52 PM »
Killian, I am sure your interpretation is wrong but I will let your comment stand as I cannot transfer it to the Forum Decorum thread. No need to discuss it further though.

Edit: Moved all posts to this thread instead.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2021, 03:43:49 AM by oren »