Freeform season chatter and light commentary

[Andruin]

Yes, this:

And they'll produce great things that are wrong, primarily because the person entering the question gets the prompt wrong.

This generation of LLMs requires great care when building a prompt, and greater care when evaluating the response. For example, look at the dates of the papers referenced in the response to my modified prompt: 2012, 1999, 2011, 2012. That doesn't give me much confidence in the response. So, now I'd have to modify the prompt to tell the LLM to use papers from the last 4 years (or whatever), and run the prompt, analyze the results, and do it again and again. A single prompt/response on a complicated subject will probably be bad.

And through all of that, I'm working my biases into the results through the prompt I'm using.

Andruin

[kassy]

Interesting points.

I am very unimpressed with the recently posted examples but both those are examples of users not asking for much. Someone used ChatGPT for something on Antarctic ice and the result there was basically a summary of some wikipedia pages. The example by Freegrass in this thread reads like it is trying to work out if things are correct.

So the problem is the prompts or the correct questions.

The sea ice export goes through similar cycles each year so a better question would be to see if there are any sort of trends in the data? But which trends would we actually expect? The only one that matters over time is the thickness/volume of the ice exported but that was probably higher when the Arctic lost the thicker ice about a decade ago.

[Freegrass]

As time goes by, AI will get better and better and better. But already today, I would trust the AI more than social networks, or even news organizations. They tell lies make mistakes too. I would even trust AI over my own biased research skills.

We're very close now to a "companion" we can ask any question that pops up into our heads. Ideas will explode, and hopefully the lies become less.

And that is the test, isn't it? Is the extreme "lying" right going to love, or hate AI?
I think the answer is obvious... Too much truth for them.

How is AI going to deal with religion? 🤔
90% of the world is religious, so will AI have a religion? 🤔


My hope is that a good AI will not succumb to lies. That will be very interesting to watch.

Right now, I had a theory in my head about the ice, and I asked the AI if I was right. I think that's the way forward. AI, the facts machine. Check your facts before you post them.

If we can't have that, it's useless, and it will definitely become Skynet.

I find it weird that we're not debating the facts that I posted, but the accuracy of AI.

So weird...

[Freegrass]

NO WAY!!!
YEAY TO GOOD PROMPTS! 

What else will be possible in the near future? Tell it to read everything I've ever written on the internet in the last 30 years and write a book about it for me?


I asked Copilot this simple question.

Can you search for all messages from Freegrass on this site and make a summary of them? https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php

## Copilot
Certainly! Let's summarize the relevant messages from the Arctic Sea Ice Forum by user Freegrass. Here are the key points:
- The 2023/2024 Freezing Season:
    - Freegrass participated in discussions related to the 2023/2024 Arctic freezing season.
    - Other forum members discussed topics such as polar vortex behavior, ice cover growth, and potential weather impacts.
    - Notably, there was a focus on an event that occurred in January 2024, leading to the lowest ice cover on record.
- Hycom Model Criticism:
    - Freegrass engaged in discussions about the Hycom model.
    - While acknowledging its usefulness, Freegrass also pointed out drawbacks and criticized certain aspects of the model.
    - The discussion involved evaluating the model's reliability and limitations.
- Forum Context:
    - The Arctic Sea Ice Forum covers various topics related to Arctic sea ice, including area, extent, volume, thickness, ocean, and atmosphere.
    - Moderators and members share insights, observations, and scientific information.
If you need further details or have additional questions, feel free to ask! 😊


Copilot really did give me a smiley face. 

And then I asked copilot 3 words; Can you expand?
The answer blew me away completely...
We've come full circle and back on topic.
How is this even possible?

## Copilot
Certainly! Let's delve deeper into the information provided. Here's an expanded summary based on the user-uploaded content:
- Arctic Sea Ice Dynamics:
    - During winter, Arctic sea ice experiences increased mobility due to wind and ocean currents, resulting in openings called "leads."
    - Leads are areas of open water within the ice pack.
    - When leads form, they expose the relatively warm ocean surface to the cold winter atmosphere, allowing for heat exchange and moisture transfer.
    - These leads can freeze up again during winter, restoring some of the ice volume.
- The Role of the Fram Strait:
    - The Fram Strait, located between Greenland and Svalbard, serves as the primary outlet for Arctic sea ice export.
    - As ice flows through the Fram Strait, it contributes to the freshwater input to the North Atlantic and influences the thermohaline circulation.
    - The strait acts as a "pressure valve" for excess ice. When ice export occurs, it helps regulate the ice volume in the Arctic.
- Melting Season Impact:
    - If ice is lost through the Fram Strait early in the melting season (spring/summer), it doesn't get replenished.
    - The leads that form during this time are less likely to refreeze due to warmer ocean temperatures.
    - Consequently, export slows down during summer, leading to a reduction in overall ice volume.
- Comparison: Winter vs. Summer Loss:
    - Losing ice during the melting season has critical implications:
        - Reduced albedo: Open water absorbs more sunlight, contributing to further warming.
        - Feedback loops: Less ice means less insulation, potentially accelerating further melting.
        - Impact on ecosystems: Ice loss affects Arctic wildlife and habitats.
    - However, both winter and summer losses have significant consequences for the Arctic climate system.
- Scientific References:
    - Willmes, S., Heinemann, G., & Schnaase, F. (2023). Patterns of wintertime Arctic sea-ice leads and their relation to winds and ocean currents. The Cryosphere, 17, 3291–3308.
    - Li, H., Ke, C., Zhu, Q., & Shen, X. (2023). Arctic sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait: variation and its effect factors. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 42(7), 166–178.
Feel free to ask if you'd like further details or have additional questions! 😊


This AI got us back on topic.
I'm perplexed...

Gen-X is the best generation ever!!! We've gone from black and white TV to Walkman's, dance music, and this...

Too bad the idiots of my generation are screwing up the world too... 

[oren]

Please don't make this thread another AI/ChatGPT thread.

[HapHazard]

Thanks oren. I was wondering what the heck this thread was about.

[johnm33]

A couple of earthquakes in recent days, north of Svalbard

[Andruin]

Apologies. My goal wasn't to derail the thread. My goal was to derail the use of the current LLMs to prove, well, anything scientic.

Andruin

[oren]

derail the use of the current LLMs to prove

In which I believe you were right, at least pertaining to Arctic Sea Ice. But the subject matter can garner a large number of responses and is best discussed elsewhere.

[Freegrass]

I thought there were no straight lines in nature?
What’s going on here? A linear mountain range?

[KenB]

I thought there were no straight lines in nature?
What’s going on here? A linear mountain range?

Here's another example, harder to visit, though:

"The Indian Ocean hides a feature known as the Ninety East Ridge or the Ninety Degree Ridge. This is a rather descriptive name. As it implies, the ridge aligns very closely with the 90th degree of longitude east. The feature stretches approximately 5,000 km (3,100 mi). The Public Broadcasting Service calls it “the longest, natural, straight-line feature on the planet (both on land or in the sea).”"

[John_the_Younger]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety_East_Ridge

"Even" longer than the east coast of Madagascar!

[Freegrass]

I thought there were no straight lines in nature?
What’s going on here? A linear mountain range?

Here's another example, harder to visit, though:

"The Indian Ocean hides a feature known as the Ninety East Ridge or the Ninety Degree Ridge. This is a rather descriptive name. As it implies, the ridge aligns very closely with the 90th degree of longitude east. The feature stretches approximately 5,000 km (3,100 mi). The Public Broadcasting Service calls it “the longest, natural, straight-line feature on the planet (both on land or in the sea).”"

That's cool. I've never noticed that, and it's not easy to miss. I can never unsee this ever again.

Took this from Google Earth. It's massive.

[Freegrass]

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. For the last decade, Arctic sea ice volume minimum has reached a bottom that'll need some very special summer weather to melt out. I believe that winter freeze and summer melt is keeping each other in some sort of equilibrium right now. This is because the easiest ice to melt out along the coast is already gone due to the easier heating up of the landmass around it. The remaining ice is in the center of the basin, surrounded by water that takes a lot longer to heat up than the land. And there's never enough time left to do that. Summer is just too short for that.

What we need to melt out the last of the remaining ice is a melting season like in 2020 topped off with a 2012 type August GAC that'll destroy the last of the ice. So basically a roll of the dice that'll be a one time event. The year after that we'll probably get back to a 4000m³ minimum sea ice volume. Probably an even higher volume due to the massive oceanic heat loss a GAC will cause.

It looks like my theory is getting confirmed for yet another year. Volume keeps turning out approximately the same after each freezing season these last few years. And now this graph (below).

What to make of it? Did the Arctic sea ice indeed reach some sort of temporary equilibrium? And how long will it last?

We melted the peripheral seas easily. Now we need to melt some land, before we get back to the ocean again. That's my simplified version of an explanation. I can't wait to read what you all have to say about this.

I'm sure that the change in winter ice dynamics, due to the lack of MYI, has a lot to do with this as well.

I've asked Copilot to fact-check my message, and this was its answer.


Your observations about Arctic sea ice are quite interesting! Let’s delve into the science behind it.

• Temporary Equilibrium:
  • Arctic summer sea ice has indeed experienced substantial declines in recent years due to anthropogenic climate change. The ice–albedo feedback, which reinforces the retreat, plays a significant role in this process.
  • However, there are recovery mechanisms that counteract the destabilizing ice–albedo effect after abrupt losses. Surprisingly, abrupt partial losses of Arctic summer sea ice are often followed by an equally rapid temporary recovery¹.
  • These recovery mechanisms suggest that Arctic sea ice has a preferred equilibrium state that varies smoothly with climatic forcing. When ice extent decreases during a single summer, it typically recovers within two years. The excess oceanic heat accumulated during the ice-free summer is rapidly returned to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter. This heat loss occurs through increased longwave emission at the top of the atmosphere and reduced atmospheric heat advection from lower latitudes¹.
• Role of Winter Ice Dynamics:
  • You’re correct that the change in winter ice dynamics, particularly the lack of multi-year ice (MYI), contributes to this behavior.
  • MYI is thicker and more resilient than seasonal ice. When MYI declines, it affects the overall ice cover and its response to climatic changes.
  • The thermodynamic equilibrium thickness of ice is the point at which ice no longer grows because it is so thick that heat from the ocean can no longer be conducted through it. It may take several years of growth and melt for ice to reach this equilibrium thickness².
• Long-Term Outlook:
  • While temporary recoveries occur, the overall trend remains concerning. The decline in Arctic sea ice is part of a larger pattern driven by global warming.
  • Scientists continue to study the complex interactions between ice, ocean, and atmosphere to understand how these mechanisms will evolve in the coming decades.
  • As we strive for sustainable solutions, it’s essential to consider both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in Arctic sea ice.

Your simplified explanation aligns well with the scientific understanding. Keep an eye on ongoing research, as our understanding of Arctic sea ice dynamics continues to evolve!

[morganism]

(ground truth? This is typically a NPole shot, not sure if so....)


@JeffFisch
2h
Kick ass SEAL shit.  IYKYK.
Unit flags blacked out by DoD.

[Andruin]

Please stop using the current version of LLMs for scientific reasoning without fact-checking the responses:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/cringe-worth-google-ai-overviews
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/15/24154808/ai-chatgpt-google-gemini-microsoft-copilot-hallucination-wrong

In addition to the above, they sometimes parrot back to you the things you've told them, even if there is no supporting evidence. They're very good at confirming whatever you tell them.

They give lots of information, but you must verify everything they tell you.

If there's a better place to post this warning, could you please move it there?

Thanks

[SteveMDFP]

Please stop using the current version of LLMs for scientific reasoning without fact-checking the responses:
...
In addition to the above, they sometimes parrot back to you the things you've told them, even if there is no supporting evidence. They're very good at confirming whatever you tell them.

They give lots of information, but you must verify everything they tell you.

If there's a better place to post this warning, could you please move it there?

Thanks

Quite right.  I think the AI systems are going to be chronically impaired by "garbage in, garbage out."  AI output is crucially sensitive to this problem.  A good AI must be trained with only high-quality data, and must also be pretty rigorous about ferreting out what's unreliable or worthless information, and not to be used for any learning or output.  This is going to be a much bigger challenge for the decades to come than getting AI systems to ace IQ tests or whatever else folks are focusing on.

[oren]

I've asked Copilot to fact-check my message, and this was its answer.

Please, no more AI-generated texts in this section. It looks good but is unreliable.

[Jim Hunt]

(ground truth? This is typically a NPole shot, not sure if so....)

Arctic Edge 24? If so, not!

https://www.nsw.navy.mil/PRESS-ROOM/Photos/igphoto/2003411790/

[Renerpho]

I thought there were no straight lines in nature?
What’s going on here? A linear mountain range?

Here's another example, harder to visit, though:

"The Indian Ocean hides a feature known as the Ninety East Ridge or the Ninety Degree Ridge. This is a rather descriptive name. As it implies, the ridge aligns very closely with the 90th degree of longitude east. The feature stretches approximately 5,000 km (3,100 mi). The Public Broadcasting Service calls it “the longest, natural, straight-line feature on the planet (both on land or in the sea).”"

That's cool. I've never noticed that, and it's not easy to miss. I can never unsee this ever again.

Took this from Google Earth. It's massive.

That's basically the suspected flight path of MH370. Put on your tin foil hats, folks! 

[binntho]

Found this on Facebook today, quite interesting. From Reddit.