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What will JAXA (ADS or NIPR) 2018 ASI September daily minimum be?

Between 5.0 and 5.5 million km^2
3 (4.2%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
3 (4.2%)
Between 4.5 and 5.0 million km^2
9 (12.5%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
19 (26.4%)
Between 4.0  and 4.5 million km^2
14 (19.4%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
6 (8.3%)
Between 3.5 and 4.0 million km^2
5 (6.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
2 (2.8%)
Between 3.0 and 3.5 million km^2
4 (5.6%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
2 (2.8%)
Between 2.5 and 3.0 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1.4%)
Between 2.0 and 2.5 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.5 and 2.0 million km^2
1 (1.4%)
Between 1.25 and 1.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 1.0 and 1.5 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 0.75 and 1.25 million km^2
2 (2.8%)
Between 0.5 and 1.0 million km^2
1 (1.4%)
Between 0.25 and 0.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.5 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 69

Voting closed: July 14, 2018, 07:08:12 AM

Author Topic: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll  (Read 4791 times)

DavidR

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JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« on: June 30, 2018, 07:08:12 AM »
This poll has been reverted to  last years format to make for an easier comparison.

The poll is for the minimum Daily sea ice extent in 2018 as measured by JAXA.

September minimums for the past 15  years have been:

2003     5933760
2004     5683663
2005     5179300
2006     5625046
2007     4065739
2008     4500623
2009     5054055
2010     4622092
2011     4269199
2012     3177455
2013     4809288
2014     4884120
2015     4257003
2016     4017264
2017     4472225
« Last Edit: June 30, 2018, 10:59:23 AM by Neven »
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oren

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum July Poll
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2018, 07:25:51 AM »
Thanks for setting this up David.
No overlapping bins this time?

DavidR

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum July Poll
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2018, 07:36:04 AM »
Thanks for setting this up David.
No overlapping bins this time?
Neven requested the same format as last year.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2018, 11:08:00 AM »
Last year's JAXA July and August polls had overlapping bins, so I quickly made these overlapping as well. For those who already have voted, check if you still agree with your vote (the change isn't that big). If not, you can change your vote.

Oh, and I made the top bin non-open-ended for the same reason as for the NSIDC poll.

Thanks a lot for opening the polls, David. I'll be voting in around 10 days. Hopefully ADS-NIPR will have resolved their server problems by then.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Tetra

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2018, 11:18:30 AM »
4.0-4.5

The calmer June melt has drastically changed my prediction (whether its due to measurement errors or the weather is something else.)

I think 2018 will be a so and so year. It’s nowhere near as bad as 2016, and 2012 was a mythically bad year. Ther4 2018 will assume a comfortable position among the 2012-2017 placements. I’m guessing either slightly lower or higher than 2017 thanks to the slightly warmer weather/thicker ice combination. It could go either way, but am definitely not holding my breath for a new record.

July could still change things and make it go lower than 2016. But that year was a massacre.

Edit: This is just a preliminary vote. I’m still learning about how the arctic works on here, so may change vote after the melting momentum of July has made itself known in about 10-15 days.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2018, 11:23:46 AM by Tetra »

Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2018, 12:35:03 PM »
4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.

Stephan

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2018, 05:53:10 PM »
I have chosen the same bin as in the former poll from May 2018 (4.25 to 4.75 mio) because I think that this year will not turn out to be 2007ish, 2016ish or even 2012ish.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

EgalSust

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2018, 01:39:45 PM »
4.25-4.75

Up a bin from June.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2018, 01:31:30 PM »
Now that JAXA is back we can get an update from the predict-o-matic. 

Predicted JAXA min: 4.46 [only 10k below last year's minimum!]
95% CI for prediction: 3.41 to 5.51

During the month of June, the predicted value for end-of-summer minimum steadily moved upward (because the melt was so slow):



There's now a 80+% chance JAXA will end up above 4.0.


Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2018, 03:30:50 PM »
4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.


I am also changing to 4.0-4.5M km2, after 3.75-4.25 last month.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

CameraMan

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2018, 06:13:25 AM »
Standing on 4 - 4.5

I think the ice is in worse shape than June extent numbers might suggest, and distribution and impending weather are setting up for a cliff.   I dearly hope I'm wrong.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2018, 08:33:51 AM »
Keeping 3.75-4.25, the uncertainty range is still high, so this outcome is certainly possible although the probability has decreased compared to a month ago.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2018, 06:08:30 PM »
Up 3. Momentum indicators are terrible for melt.

4.5-5.0


Krakatoa

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2018, 06:50:38 AM »
I stick with 4.5-5
I'll be really surprised if extend ends up below 4.5

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2018, 04:37:33 PM »
4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.


I am also changing to 4.0-4.5M km2, after 3.75-4.25 last month.

I am going up another half bin, to 4.25-4.75M km2.
Hopefully, I will go up again in the near future.  8)


Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2018, 07:58:46 PM »
I stay at my originally chosen bin of 4.25 to 4.75 M km² no matter what the actual weather or decline rate is.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 09:32:32 PM »
Before the melt season started I was thinking 3.75 to 4.25 and a 2nd lowest- low winter maximum, global ocean heat content way up, AGW in the Arctic.

But now the season is 62 percent done, the average remaining melt gives an answer above 4.75, extent is 11th lowest, 500k above the 2010's average, and arctic +ve temperature anomalies set to be small to zero for at least the next 10 days. Against that area is much closer to the 2010's average.

My head must rule - and says 4.5 to 5.0 million
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Neven

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 09:39:13 PM »
I went up one bin to 'Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2'.
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slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2018, 12:42:26 AM »
Just missed closing. I would have gone for [3.75,4.25] bin.

Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2018, 08:04:52 AM »
Missed the opportunity to go up a bin in this and the other poll before closing. Oh well.

pauldry600

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2018, 11:50:13 AM »
i stay on 4.5 to 5m from day one

litesong

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2018, 06:36:47 PM »
Oh, boy! Thot I was gonna miss the right minimum September Arctic sea ice estimate. But, jes' 2 days ago, the sea ice hit 4.49million km2. (which now includes me). Appears those that predicted 4.25 to 4.75 million km2 might be dead on. We'll see if the sea ice minimum drops anymore.....gettin' purdy late fer lotsa razzle dazzle, tho. But, tha's there AGW fer ya all.   
« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 06:51:34 PM by litesong »

Brigantine

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2018, 11:56:15 AM »
21% too high
46% correct
33% too low

jdallen

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2018, 09:24:10 PM »
21% too high
46% correct
33% too low
... and 67% within one bucket of the final.  Not bad.
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litesong

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2018, 09:46:30 PM »
i stay on 4.5 to 5m from day one
I'll give ya a pick up for close to the cup & ya still shot par.

Rob Dekker

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2018, 08:13:27 AM »
With the final result of the JAXA daily minimum being 4.457 on September 21 :



it looks like we did pretty good this year !
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Let's not waste either.