I am not disputing your points in any way, nor do I doubt you personally in the slightest (in fact I avidly read your comments) but I believe the Slater projection maps are misleading and maybe close to intellectually dishonest. As far as I can tell these projections are differently colored versions of the latest sea ice concentration maps (as per the NSIDC map in the image). Once different and prettier colors are applied to the data set, then a different scale is applied to the side. Sea ice concentration that is perhaps now around 70% is ascribed a value of maybe 20%. And voila! The latest Slater Probabilistic Sea Ice Extent prediction for July 30! Or some similar process.
If you don't believe me, please look at the images below. The current ice extent on the Slater graph,once you look to its edges, is just a little inwardly displaced from today's ice distribution And then look at the image on the right, for the actual distribution of ice last year on July 30. There is almost
zero probability that there will be significant ice in Hudson Bay, the south/west Kara Sea and Baffin Bay on this coming July 30. But the Slater map has ice in all these places,
because that is where 100% ice concentration exists right now. Other examples abound. Hey, even I could do better than this!
I know that I am but a lowly Lurker, but scientifically I think one of the worst things we have to deal with are grossly misleading methodologies or analyses. These Slater maps seem to fall, perhaps inadvertently, into this category. I leave it to others to decide, but is it worth Wipneus, Neven, oren and other notables discussing whether these projections should even appear on these forums? BTW I believe these projections were once very good, but that Dr./Mr. Slater passed away -- I do not want to blemish his name in any way.
...and funny enough the latest Slater projection shows a rough approximation of ^ happening by 7/30, with Hudson, Kara, and ESS holding strong while the ice linking Laptev/Chukchi/Beaufort comes under immense stress & melt: