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be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2550 on: August 03, 2018, 07:47:43 PM »
Bbr .. they are short of cherry pickers in England atm ... :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2551 on: August 03, 2018, 07:56:41 PM »
Bbr .. they are short of cherry pickers in England atm ... :)

if we permanently take the longest possible forecast that almost never becomes true it not only looks bad but causes irritations and useless discussions. if i were @neven i'd not allow more than 5days forecast images to be posted, even that's not worth the effort because too much is changing in the meantime while at least we often get close.

if we want to know how the weather will NOT be in 10+ days we simply have to look at the forecast weather and sadly that's not even kidding.

in short i agree while cherry picking is a nice word for a PN. i'd gladly not use abbreviations but forthe sake of peace, those who think similarly can guess the two words behind LOL

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2552 on: August 03, 2018, 08:50:36 PM »
The gfs has a much more amped up ridge after day 5 than the euro.

The gfs also has a massive cyclone likely helping that ridge stay explosive.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2553 on: August 03, 2018, 09:13:43 PM »
In addition to magnamentis' statement I'd like to ask those who predict storms, heat waves or heavy rainfall in the arctic that are forecasted for next week or even later to re-visit the areas after the event had happened and to compare the effects of that weather event with their own forecasts.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2554 on: August 03, 2018, 09:22:51 PM »
The gfs has a much more amped up ridge after day 5 than the euro.

The gfs also has a massive cyclone likely helping that ridge stay explosive.
The CMC agrees. The EURO is not far off either.


A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2555 on: August 03, 2018, 09:51:49 PM »
Quote
Even after a summer BOE, ice will still form in the Arctic during the dark, polar winter for many decades
So, this being merely 2018, it surely follows that Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor froze over this winter?

Except it never came close. And this year was only a continuation of a long-term regional trend, not a variational swing attributable to unusual weather, cycle, oscillation, phase or teleconnection event.

The interface to the Pacific Ocean and the once-icy Bering Sea is similar: the Chukchi had open water right up to January 20th (in the sense of persistent non lift-off UH AMSR2 0-10% sea ice concentration). It was fully frozen over only on 13 days over the entire winter (measured as 95% of Chukchi pixels at 80-100% concentration).

So the Chukchi is now partly open 242/365 or 93% of the year and again this is just 2018, not many decades out in a warmer future. The same can be said for basin margins affected by earlier melting major rivers.

Once again, a more nuanced assessment (area, time series) works better than binary binning (will/won't freeze over in winter). That is, the mean sea ice concentration over the winter has already departed significantly from freeze-over in many peripheral areas.

Despite continuing -- and possibly accelerating -- Arctic Amplification that predominantly affects fall and winter, no doubt large central areas will indeed continue to freeze over for some time, but both extent and duration of coverage can be expected to diminish over time from the periphery inward, unless new Hail Mary feedbacks emerge. The Arctic Ocean with a thin but extensive ice cover over fall and winter in conjunction with a severely diminished summer coverage is actually the worst case scenario for global warming.

Often termed the planet's refrigerator because the Antarctic can't do the job, the Arctic's loss of summer ice reduces reflection of sunlight energy back into space, which coupled with retention of the extra ocean heat by a thin ice cover during winter, will notably worsen the overall yearly heat budget. New feedbacks will surely emerge but both their qualitative and quantitative specifics are for now very much up in the air.

The first animation shows the retreating ice front on the Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor. The second animation runs from 15 Nov 17 to 01 May 18. Zero concentration regions have been picked and replaced with blue-green rimmed with yellow; solid ice is shown as gray. Both are 'grown' by one pixel to reduce clutter.

The third 4-day animation to 02 Aug 18 shows the shocking deterioration of the ice pack in the Beaufort-Chukchi region. This time of year especially, sea ice concentration in products like AMSR2 have to show a consistent blue for three or more consecutive days, allowing for ice motion, for artifacts to be distinguished.

Jaxa is working fine with no data gaps: take the 36:36:18 to its rgb components and delete all but the blue channel (18V ghz) to get rid of seasonal weather artifacts. The lesser-resolution, different wavelength result is fully supportive of AMSR2, 4th animation.

RoxGeo had a thoughtful post a ways back on melt season topology, roughly being the time reversal of freeze season (LIFO in CS) but with a topological twist: the ice pack freezes and melts along its boundary, no holes or free blocks (connected with vanishing first homotopy). It appears that August 2nd saw some catch-up, with the seemingly solid loose block off the ESS and Wrangel perhaps flashing (and maybe the Alaskan shoreline block as well). But let's see what tomorrow brings.

« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 12:16:17 AM by A-Team »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2556 on: August 03, 2018, 10:01:38 PM »
After being stunned by A-Team's post (again) here is something far less potent.

DMI North of 80 temperature is above average - a smidgeon, the first time (in the brief period of above 273.15 Kelvin average) since about this time in 2016. GFS suggests this may continue for a few days.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2557 on: August 04, 2018, 12:16:21 AM »
After being stunned by A-Team's post (again) here is something far less potent.

DMI North of 80 temperature is above average - a smidgeon, the first time (in the brief period of above 273.15 Kelvin average) since about this time in 2016. GFS suggests this may continue for a few days.

You read my mind (great minds or fools seldom?). Lets hope that the upcoming above average temperatures are not the herald of the autumnal warmth we have seen over the last two years. Historically temperatures are starting to fall north of 80°N. As the temperature falls it is no longer buffered to 0°C and anomalous heat is easier to see.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2558 on: August 04, 2018, 12:47:30 AM »
Quote
Even after a summer BOE, ice will still form in the Arctic during the dark, polar winter for many decades
So, this being merely 2018, it surely follows that Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor froze over this winter?

Except it never came close. And this year was only a continuation of a long-term regional trend, not a variational swing attributable to unusual weather, cycle, oscillation, phase or teleconnection event.


Big difference between this region with deep water, and directly in the path of one of the warm currents from the Atlantic.  Compare to say Laptev with shallow shelfs and no direct exposure to warm Atlantic waters.  I note also that in this corridor the edge of the ice is pretty much in the same spot as it was at maximum.  Not exactly representative of general Arctic sea ice behaviour.
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Phil.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2559 on: August 04, 2018, 01:28:07 AM »
After being stunned by A-Team's post (again) here is something far less potent.

DMI North of 80 temperature is above average - a smidgeon, the first time (in the brief period of above 273.15 Kelvin average) since about this time in 2016. GFS suggests this may continue for a few days.

You read my mind (great minds or fools seldom?). Lets hope that the upcoming above average temperatures are not the herald of the autumnal warmth we have seen over the last two years. Historically temperatures are starting to fall north of 80°N. As the temperature falls it is no longer buffered to 0°C and anomalous heat is easier to see.

Actually, according to DMI80+ the temperature is the highest it's been this summer.  ;)

litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2560 on: August 04, 2018, 04:57:11 AM »
Using the Charctic chart, not one day between 1984 & 2005 (well past 2 decades) has had Arctic sea ice extent as low as ALL corresponding days in 2018. 
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
This true information is evidence, despite the solar TSI being at a sub-standard ebb for the past 12 years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).
You can use the Charctic chart to find other wide Arctic sea ice differences between our present time & decades past. In essence, not even weather conditions, which can make wide cold or hot divergences, can bridge the gap, that increasing man-made, infra-red energy absorbing CO2, methane & other GHG warmings AND their positive feedbacks, have made between Arctic ice of today & days of the past.
 Yes, AGW deniers, who were the first to use the present sub-standard solar TSI, to bolster their predictions of cooling Earth, can no longer sit on their Earth ice age theory.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 05:31:35 AM by litesong »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2561 on: August 04, 2018, 05:34:31 AM »
Most of the CAB is very deep.

It will take an amazing change to cause it to be ice free in winter.
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litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2562 on: August 04, 2018, 06:02:46 AM »
Most of the CAB is very deep. It will take an amazing change to cause it to be ice free in winter.
But, once the Arctic is ice-free in September(?), it WON'T be amazing to see ice-free months in succeeding years, backing up to April, May, June, July & August, while the sun nears its highest elevations in the Arctic sky, melting ever thinning sea ice & warming Arctic waters, the Arctic, which used to reflect solar rays back into space from "past(?)" Arctic ices. Yes, it is also known that solar heat, beamed from its highest Arctic elevations, can warm Arctic waters below very thin sea ice.
But...... thanks for moving the goal posts.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 07:05:22 AM by litesong »

sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2563 on: August 04, 2018, 06:41:27 AM »
I doubt anyone has a very clear picture of the structural changes and circulation patterns of an arctic free of sea ice.  Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate, not for the 2018 melt season thread.

However, if anyone would like to open a thread on that subject, I'd love to participate.
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litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2564 on: August 04, 2018, 07:13:52 AM »
Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate......
What say you, about ice free Arctic in September.....August.... July, October, June, May, April, November? Or are those discussions for.... futurologists, yet unborn?

sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2565 on: August 04, 2018, 07:20:25 AM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.0.html

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.0.html

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1542.0.html

The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018, which is what this thread is about.  I'd love to discuss it and try to support my theories on the subject.  It's a discussion for another *thread* is the issue.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2566 on: August 04, 2018, 07:45:51 AM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2567 on: August 04, 2018, 09:47:44 AM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

Yep. At first blink:

And also CH4 Emitting Areas on the Increase

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2568 on: August 04, 2018, 10:28:44 AM »
July 30 - August 3.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2569 on: August 04, 2018, 11:04:06 AM »
The interface to the Pacific Ocean and the once-icy Bering Sea is similar: the Chukchi had open water right up to January 20th (in the sense of persistent non lift-off UH AMSR2 0-10% sea ice concentration).

Weather conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Sea were unusual last winter: there were southerly wind anomalies during most of the freezing season (see image below).  The long term trend for sea ice extent in those regions is clearly downward, but I wouldn't read too much into a single year with unusual weather.




On the Atlantic side of the Arctic there were also southerly wind anomalies last winter:  https://i.imgur.com/Yj0oCfC.gif.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2570 on: August 04, 2018, 12:29:15 PM »
Today's ecmwf wam (waves) from Windy

Worldview, Laptev sea, viirs brightness temperature(band15,day), aug4.
light blue ~-1C
yellow ~4C

Tech note:
The VIIRS Brightness Temperature, Band I5, Day layer is the brightness temperature, measured in Kelvin (K), calculated from the top-of-the-atmosphere radiances. It does not provide an accurate temperature of either clouds nor the land surface, but it does show relative temperature differences which can be used to distinguish features both in clouds and over clear land. It can be used to distinguish land, sea ice, and open water over the polar regions during winter (in cloudless areas).
The VIIRS Brightness Temperature layer is calculated from VIIRS Calibrated Radiances and is available from the SNPP (VNP02) satellite. The sensor resolution is 375m, the imagery resolution is 250m, and the temporal resolution is daily.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2571 on: August 04, 2018, 01:41:38 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

There's a lag with the effects of high pressure on the extent data, which is why you don't get a continuation of the big losses we saw last week. The question now is whether this late melting momentum can still play a part in shaping the minimum. It depends on what comes after this, of course. The D7-D10 forecast has the high moving over to the Pacific-American side, but I think it'll take some 2016 type weather for this year to make it to the top 3.

It would've been a different story if we had seen this kind of set-up during the last week of June/first week of July:
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lurkalot

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2572 on: August 04, 2018, 02:11:50 PM »
Northern Sea Route appears open according to UniBremen

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctichesky_AMSR2_visual.png

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2573 on: August 04, 2018, 04:14:43 PM »
Quote
question now is whether this late melting momentum can still play a part in shaping the minimum
A zeroth order prediction for the minimum merely posits that new ice formed during the freeze season melts out during the melt season, leaving the area, extent, volume and configuration of the icepack right back where they started.

Just beyond that is a first order prediction that folds in trend lines, pinch-out of older sea ice classes, basin motion into killing zones, and out-of-basin export of ice, which have both been minimal this spring and summer (per FishOwater, since the SSW set in).

The very slow middle animation below compares the current melt season end with its freeze season beginning, legend in last frame. The end is not yet available because August 3rd is still 38 days short of the Sept 10th minimum taken for last fall (first frame). Neven noted last year that solar radiation becomes negligible by the end of August, even though the polar night has not set in and sunlight might still be angled in effectively under a cloud deck.

Still, there are interesting differences already with over a month to go, notably along the SV-FJL-SZ corridor where the ice has already receded well past its start position -- and beyond continental shelf boundary currents into deeper water (pink). The Laptev is also showing coherent recession.

Note atlantification isn't limited to atlantification: there are significant follow-on effects such frontal wave attack (above: uniquorm) that can reach hundreds of km into the CAB, mixing of stratification layers and so on.

It remains to be seen whether rapid deterioration in the Beaufort-Chukchi-ESS will continue; that will make or break the melt season in terms of minimum trending, the poor cousin of second year ice formation (FYI graduates then to SYI, SYI to TYI, TYI to MYI).

The mp4 of AMSR2 runs rapidly through the whole season, from Sept 10th to Aug 3rd, without file size getting out of hand. What I wanted to do here -- following up on gerontocrat's mirroring and rescaling post -- is a time-reversal of freeze-up to melt-down to see how the mid-season zeroth order prediction (made at the winter maximum by running the frames backwards) differs from daily observed. In the strong version of the zeroth order prediction, there are no differences.

However there may very well be quite different systemic lags. Computationally, the first 182 days, time-reversed, of color imagery are subtracted from the following 182 of actual observed and re-sliced for a melt season departure mp4. It may make better sense to wait on this until the full season has run its course but a preliminary version is attached.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 04:56:02 PM by A-Team »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2574 on: August 04, 2018, 05:29:58 PM »
A-Team, I slowed down your second animation a bit with optical flow: I think it's better to watch now even though there seem to be some duplicated frames in your footage that create odd stuttering motion. When melting season ends I would like to create a real slow and contemplative version and would be very thankful if you could provide me with the basic graphs.

The still is a 72 hours composite which I use to create to quit some of the cloud cover and have a better look at the state of the ice. Edit: I quit some of the soft grey shade which also seems to be caused by clouds and could exaggerate the shown deterioration.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 05:48:48 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2575 on: August 04, 2018, 06:00:17 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

clear skies?

for me this is not clear skies until someone is able to explain the definition of clear skies that differs from "cloud free" that evades me.

the image is from today and it has been that way for a long time while cloud free spots change on a daily basis of course

Telihod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2576 on: August 04, 2018, 06:16:07 PM »
clear skies?
Relatively clear skies compared to most of the summer?

Nikita

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2577 on: August 04, 2018, 07:21:06 PM »
Warmer and warmer!

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2578 on: August 04, 2018, 07:38:06 PM »
I doubt anyone has a very clear picture of the structural changes and circulation patterns of an arctic free of sea ice.  Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate, not for the 2018 melt season thread.

However, if anyone would like to open a thread on that subject, I'd love to participate.

 i agree this is not relevant to this thread and an ice free arctic thread already exists.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2579 on: August 04, 2018, 07:39:49 PM »
Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate......
What say you, about ice free Arctic in September.....August.... July, October, June, May, April, November? Or are those discussions for.... futurologists, yet unborn?

They are discussions for other threads unless you would like to discuss the likelihood of ice free conditions extending into the fall for this season.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2580 on: August 04, 2018, 07:43:40 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

clear skies?

for me this is not clear skies until someone is able to explain the definition of clear skies that differs from "cloud free" that evades me.

the image is from today and it has been that way for a long time while cloud free spots change on a daily basis of course

Not sure where that image is from but it's not accurate.

This is the last three days.  Anywhere with a red or orangish red tint is ice.  And or snow.

This is about as could free as it gets.  There is fog in the cab thanks to tremendous WAA but for August this is impressive.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2581 on: August 04, 2018, 08:16:14 PM »
Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate......
What say you, about ice free Arctic in September.....August.... July, October, June, May, April, November? Or are those discussions for.... futurologists, yet unborn?

They are discussions for other threads unless you would like to discuss the likelihood of ice free conditions extending into the fall for this season.

Hehe....I am not discounting that as a possibility, but no one else seems to entertain that as conceivable.

And no, I am not predicting it...just saying that when the ice decides to go away it won't matter if it is daytime or nighttime.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2582 on: August 04, 2018, 08:19:00 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

clear skies?

for me this is not clear skies until someone is able to explain the definition of clear skies that differs from "cloud free" that evades me.

the image is from today and it has been that way for a long time while cloud free spots change on a daily basis of course

Not sure where that image is from but it's not accurate.

This is the last three days.  Anywhere with a red or orangish red tint is ice.  And or snow.

This is about as could free as it gets.  There is fog in the cab thanks to tremendous WAA but for August this is impressive.

image is from windy ECMF while GFS looks a bit better but similar (no clear skies)

so since we're interested to find the real thing, what or who says which is accureate ?

after all satellite images don't look that clear skies to me as well,  i mean clear skies like "no clouds"

i've been looking at the posted images and there were clearly structures white in white that hint at cloud cover, willing and ready to learn more since until now i always thought that windy is a reliable source with even various sources included as well as that i was able to distinguish clouds from clear skies.

your image does look artificial colored,means it's processed, i prefer unprocessed photos when possible, everything else goes a bit under "paper accepts everything" if you know what i mean.

however i'm asking, not saying, perhaps there are factors i'm not aware of that i can use in the future to get a better view.

thanks

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2583 on: August 04, 2018, 08:25:50 PM »

This is very interesting and helpful. Thank you and I would definitely be interested in an update after the melt season.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2584 on: August 04, 2018, 08:27:47 PM »
Sorry about my post. I was trying to reference A-Team's animation, and obviously got it wrong...newbie that I am

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2585 on: August 04, 2018, 09:09:00 PM »
Update on Mercator 0m, 34m and 92m salinity, mar21-aug4. 5.5MB, every other day, click to run
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180321/20180804/2/2


edit:confusing animation removed
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 11:17:33 AM by uniquorn »

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2586 on: August 04, 2018, 10:12:39 PM »

so since we're interested to find the real thing, what or who says which is accureate ?

after all satellite images don't look that clear skies to me as well,  i mean clear skies like "no clouds"

i've been looking at the posted images and there were clearly structures white in white that hint at cloud cover, willing and ready to learn more since until now i always thought that windy is a reliable source with even various sources included as well as that i was able to distinguish clouds from clear skies.

your image does look artificial colored,means it's processed, i prefer unprocessed photos when possible, everything else goes a bit under "paper accepts everything" if you know what i mean.

however i'm asking, not saying, perhaps there are factors i'm not aware of that i can use in the future to get a better view.

thanks

I don't think anyone would say that clear skies means there are "no clouds" anywhere in the arctic.   It seems highly unlikely that that would ever happen.   Friv's point is that relatively speaking, the skies are about as clear as they have been during the entire melting season. 

The images he posted are from the NASA worldview satellite which is the most accurate image you can get of the current conditions in the arctic.  He did use false color (bands 3-6-7) but those bands make it very easy to distinguish ice from clouds.  They are also very helpful in determining where the surface of the ice is wet, which could indicate surface melting. 

If you doubt the images, visit worldview and use the true color images.  It is remarkable how clear the arctic is right now.  What that might mean for future melting is yet to be determined, but it certainly is not going to help (i.e. With preservation of the ice).
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 10:18:26 PM by Rod »

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2588 on: August 04, 2018, 11:14:55 PM »

so since we're interested to find the real thing, what or who says which is accureate ?

after all satellite images don't look that clear skies to me as well,  i mean clear skies like "no clouds"

i've been looking at the posted images and there were clearly structures white in white that hint at cloud cover, willing and ready to learn more since until now i always thought that windy is a reliable source with even various sources included as well as that i was able to distinguish clouds from clear skies.

your image does look artificial colored,means it's processed, i prefer unprocessed photos when possible, everything else goes a bit under "paper accepts everything" if you know what i mean.

however i'm asking, not saying, perhaps there are factors i'm not aware of that i can use in the future to get a better view.

thanks

I don't think anyone would say that clear skies means there are "no clouds" anywhere in the arctic.   It seems highly unlikely that that would ever happen.   Friv's point is that relatively speaking, the skies are about as clear as they have been during the entire melting season. 

The images he posted are from the NASA worldview satellite which is the most accurate image you can get of the current conditions in the arctic.  He did use false color (bands 3-6-7) but those bands make it very easy to distinguish ice from clouds.  They are also very helpful in determining where the surface of the ice is wet, which could indicate surface melting. 

If you doubt the images, visit worldview and use the true color images.  It is remarkable how clear the arctic is right now.  What that might mean for future melting is yet to be determined, but it certainly is not going to help (i.e. With preservation of the ice).

ok, understood, thanks for elaboration

litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2589 on: August 05, 2018, 12:49:52 AM »
The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018, which is what this thread is about.
The start of this thread, never contended the Arctic would be ice free in 2018.

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2590 on: August 05, 2018, 12:59:32 AM »
The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018, which is what this thread is about.
The start of this thread, never contended the Arctic would be ice free in 2018.

That is an unfair quote litesong.  He was simply trying to redirect discussion of a topic he cares about to a different thread. 

I would like to see that topic discussed somewhere else.  It seemed interesting to me. 


slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2591 on: August 05, 2018, 05:58:20 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on 2018-08-04...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 08:13:12 AM by slow wing »

Darvince

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2592 on: August 05, 2018, 06:41:50 AM »
Latest GFS/ECMWF/CMC parks the high over the Eurasian side of the Arctic out to D6, say bye to the lower thickness/concentration ESS ice.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2593 on: August 05, 2018, 11:40:03 AM »
That looks like nearly all of it  :( Today's ecmwf wam (wave) from windy.
Worldview, ESS, aug54 https://tinyurl.com/y8u2zo2n
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 11:54:07 AM by uniquorn »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2594 on: August 05, 2018, 01:30:15 PM »
Anyone interested in a Greenland-roundtrip within a couple of days?
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2595 on: August 05, 2018, 01:53:42 PM »
That would be so awesome. 2-3 more days of wind blowing the ice away from the coast there. I wonder if it will be enough.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2596 on: August 05, 2018, 03:14:04 PM »
Maybe aerosols are slowing the icemelt anyone??

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/aug/03/pollution-is-slowing-the-melting-of-arctic-sea-ice-for-now

Aerosols are slowing all forms of cooling, else we would already be in, "Screw it. Give me a beer," territory. I.e., at or over 2C.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2597 on: August 05, 2018, 06:13:05 PM »
Update on Mercator 0m, 34m and 92m salinity, mar21-aug4. 5.5MB, every other day, click to run
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180321/20180804/2/2


Its a little confusing posting these side by side and without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection :)

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2598 on: August 05, 2018, 06:41:32 PM »
Quote
so awesome. 2-3 more days of wind blowing the ice away from the coast
It looks like the lift-off north of Greenland will continue a few more days at least as a slowly drifing atmospheric pattern sets up, which will give rise to a consistent ice drift (towards the Bering Strait) unlike the chaotic winds back to June 1st and earlier.

To be clear, this is neither bottom nor top melt, just winds blowing the icepack off the coast, creating some open water and dispersed floes. It is a bit unusual to see this in the Lincoln Sea which is one of the last hold-outs of thick ice. August 5th is available at WorldView Aqua, putting it one day ahead of the algorithmic products.

Quote
Mercator is confusing without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection
Right, there are serious design errors at that site involving shifting color scales. Even if they are included, comparative graphics can still be misleading.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 07:03:25 PM by A-Team »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2599 on: August 05, 2018, 07:14:16 PM »
The next reinforcement of the polar ridge comes courtesy of the typhoon that is about to plow into Japan and possibly make a direct strike on Tokyo. As bad as that scenario is, what follows is another massacre for the entire PAC front.