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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #250 on: April 05, 2018, 11:58:24 PM »
That looks like a bit of refreeze along some of the chukchi coast today

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #251 on: April 06, 2018, 07:32:04 AM »
All this energy does NOT add temperature increase to the Arctic. Once ice-free conditions exist in the Arctic, any other added energy WILL raise Arctic water volume temperatures. About sixty times the volume of melted Arctic ice in the form of water will then be affected by any excess energy.
There is a dynamic that tends to be left out. That is the jet stream. Pre 2000 the jet stream usually was a buffer between weather systems in the Arctic and the rest of the NH. Now more often then not it is the main engine that is either pushing heat into it or pulling cold out of it. This means that whereas pre 2000 the sun was the biggest factor of heat for the Arctic, now location of the jet stream is by far the biggest factor.
As example how many times in the last few years have areas in the Arctic gotten close to or above 0C in the dead of winter? Or conversely when we have had the warmest global temps on record in the summer, the Arctic has had a hard time melting? If you check what the jet stream is doing you will see that it is a very important factor . If the wondering stream ever hit the Arctic in the summer like it has in the winter in the last few years, a great melt would occur regardless of sun.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #252 on: April 06, 2018, 10:33:48 AM »
The sea of okhotsk bringing extent down.

JayW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #253 on: April 06, 2018, 12:21:51 PM »
125 hour loop of the Chukchi region.  March 31-April 5.  Easterly winds appear to be in charge for 2-3 more days over this and the Beaufort region.  I'll do the Beaufort after a couple more days of easterly wind, it'll be more interesting.

I tried boosting the contrast to bring out the details.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #254 on: April 06, 2018, 12:59:35 PM »
Thank you JayW. Beautiful animation.
It is still cold enough for new ice to form over the exposed water in the Chukchi. When that changes, we will get sharp extent drops of all this thin new ice.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #255 on: April 06, 2018, 02:33:45 PM »
My goodness, so early.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #256 on: April 06, 2018, 06:38:14 PM »
My goodness, so early.
4-6 weeks early by my estimate, and what I feared would happen.
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numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #257 on: April 06, 2018, 06:50:26 PM »
Anecdote: the snow and ice is melting off the roads in Iqaluit a month earlier than last year.

litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #258 on: April 06, 2018, 09:19:06 PM »
All this energy does NOT add temperature increase to the Arctic. Once ice-free conditions exist in the Arctic, any other added energy WILL raise Arctic water volume temperatures. About sixty times the volume of melted Arctic ice in the form of water will then be affected by any excess energy.
There is a dynamic that tends to be left out. That is the jet stream. Pre 2000 the jet stream usually was a buffer between weather systems in the Arctic and the rest of the NH. Now more often then not it is the main engine that is either pushing heat into it or pulling cold out of it. This means that whereas pre 2000 the sun was the biggest factor of heat for the Arctic, now location of the jet stream is by far the biggest factor.
Lots of people have said the same. It may be true. However continuous Present High Arctic over-temperatures (PHAB 8) s or FAB 8) s) have been increasing since the latter 1950's & early 60's, when continuous over-temperatures were ~ 30 to 40 straight days. Then FAB 8) s rose to 90  straight days, 100+ straight days, & 140 straight days. From latter 2016 thru early 2017, FAB 8)(1) sizzled for 230+ straight days. 2017 spring & summertime direct solar heat, which has been languid for half century(+?), & low for 11+ years(including 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low), dropped High Arctic temperatures below average. During the latter 2017 to early 2018 period, with the sun below the horizon, & once more AGW effects became prominent, FAB 8)(2) lasted for 215+ continuous days.
These long continuous days of over-temperatures are more than just the effects of a wavering jet stream. When the sun is below the horizon, AGW effects become more evident in the High Arctic.... on a continuing basis.   

Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #259 on: April 06, 2018, 09:35:38 PM »
Anecdote: the snow and ice is melting off the roads in Iqaluit a month earlier than last year.
We are about normal at Dawson City Yukon. The river is still drivable. Almost time to start our annual breakup watch.
http://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #260 on: April 06, 2018, 10:55:30 PM »
My goodness, so early.
4-6 weeks early by my estimate, and what I feared would happen.

Watch for clear skies.  This might be the year, although I still say it could decide to melt out in the middle of Winter just as well.  The air is the driver of variability.  The ocean is the driver of melt.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #261 on: April 07, 2018, 04:38:01 AM »
The mush being flushed around the southern Chukchi sea from April 1-6, under clear skies. If high pressure hangs around things are going to get bad fast

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #262 on: April 07, 2018, 12:28:54 PM »
As I see things by May 1st in all the years since 2013 we've been able to call off a perfect melt storm due to conditions through late March/April.

If the forecasts hold then this year we will still be on the path for one with widespread HP across the basin and occasional lows over the Baltic side of things allowing a northerly flow through Fram.

Of course if we saw a 2007 or a 2012 the ice would be struggling by late July.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #263 on: April 07, 2018, 04:14:25 PM »
Kara Sea has largely avoided this years warm weather events but, as highlighted by Neven up thread, is getting some more challenging weather today and tomorrow.

Worldview terra modis apr5 (last clear day)
Nullschool forecast.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #264 on: April 07, 2018, 06:40:47 PM »
We broke the graph again :)




JayW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #265 on: April 08, 2018, 04:03:39 AM »
103 hour loop of the Beaufort Sea region, April 3-7, 2018.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?page=3&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

Second attachment is the ECMWF 96 hour wind forecast showing easterly winds persisting north of Alaska for a few more days.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/temperature-f/20180408-0300z.html
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romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #266 on: April 08, 2018, 11:53:09 AM »
Average sea ice area for Bering Sea so far in April is just 89,000 km² (NSIDC, 5-day trailing average). There is small rebound on the chart, but question about the quality of that ice. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #267 on: April 08, 2018, 02:56:19 PM »
A closer look at Mackenzie Bay, Beaufort Sea yesterday. A nice example of refreeze and ridging. Temperature ~-19C

Worldview Terra/Modis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #268 on: April 08, 2018, 03:37:42 PM »
Several examples of refreezing in the Bering Sea.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #269 on: April 08, 2018, 09:11:40 PM »
I am floored that this graph's rise has only continued.

This has happened concurrent with the Bering Sea melt. The next several days should be adequate for even MORE growth.

Models are beginning to show a pattern that could constitute a "breakdown" by D7, but it seems fairly tentative.



In any case, with so much mass accumulated so late in the year, I believe that large areas of +albedo anomalies at relatively low latitudes will act in tandem with the deficiency of sea ice in Bering/Barentz to vacuum large quantities of oceanic heat content into the high Arctic. This likely paves the way for sustained losses through the rest of this month in both aforementioned locations, spreading into Chukchi and Beaufort as well.


Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #270 on: April 08, 2018, 09:51:37 PM »
The melting of all that excess snow should start in 1-2 days and go down fairly quickly.

ghoti

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #271 on: April 08, 2018, 10:38:04 PM »
Meanwhile today NASA Operation Icebridge posted Facebook photos of the Yukon River showing very little snow on the land. So much for high albedo.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #272 on: April 08, 2018, 11:29:32 PM »
The melting of all that excess snow should start in 1-2 days and go down fairly quickly.
I disagree. The same was said 30 days ago. We shall see. I think drops will start in North America by the 15th but won't pick up steam until the end of the month. Eurasia's warming should be more sustained, however.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #273 on: April 09, 2018, 04:16:08 AM »
Ding !
Lowest extent for date. That sneaked up on me.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 02:48:38 PM by Thomas Barlow »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #274 on: April 09, 2018, 03:51:10 PM »
Models show a much warmer than normal 10 days in northern Europe ahead but most of the snowy areas in North America will remain colder than normal. Expect negative snow anomalies in Eurasia to increase but positive anomalies in north America to continue.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #275 on: April 09, 2018, 09:34:49 PM »
Yes, nullschool forecasting winds over 5C close to Svalbard on apr13.

Update on Kara Sea. Apr5-9 (worldview)
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 09:42:56 PM by uniquorn »

numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #276 on: April 09, 2018, 10:15:23 PM »
What's the verdict on GFS vs ECMWF?

I thought euro was generally more accurate (it's certainly my experience in Iqaluit that ECMWF is eerie at times), but I see mostly GFS being used here.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #277 on: April 09, 2018, 11:24:20 PM »
My impression is that ECMWF is better. I only use GFS for temperature and some other stuff on Climate Reanalyzer.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #278 on: April 10, 2018, 12:45:23 AM »
Here are charts (courtesy weatherdotus) for 13 April at 12am from US Global and Euro. Broadly quite similar but US has that extra hot spot to the west of Svalbard.

The hot spot is also over the same area where Nullschool displays persistently high SSTs (derived from NCEP RTG SST). I have not come across any evidence to back up the very high SSTs (often as high as 15 C) constantly displayed in that area on Nullschool.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #279 on: April 10, 2018, 01:32:28 AM »
What's the verdict on GFS vs ECMWF?
I see your point. I picked a random spot but selecting a few locations nearby I get 3.6C to 6.4C just now.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #280 on: April 10, 2018, 05:13:49 AM »
I think that the ECMWF is better at forecasting the behavior of blocking highs which tend to give all models trouble. Over the last 2 years blocking highs have brought unprecedented heat to the Arctic in the dark months. The ECMWF has a tendency to overforecast low pressure depth in the Arctic.

The GFS has been propagating waves at slightly higher speeds than the ECMWF recently. Thus the GFS predicted rain storms 4 days ahead that came a day later in the eastern U.S. The ECMWF has done a better job of forecasting our storms for the past month. In general it's a better model, but neither model is close to perfect.

The problem with the ECMWF is access to output. The GFS has far more data freely available to the public.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #281 on: April 10, 2018, 05:19:43 AM »
I think that the ECMWF is better at forecasting the behavior of blocking highs which tend to give all models trouble. Over the last 2 years blocking highs have brought unprecedented heat to the Arctic in the dark months. The ECMWF has a tendency to overforecast low pressure depth in the Arctic.

The GFS has been propagating waves at slightly higher speeds than the ECMWF recently. Thus the GFS predicted rain storms 4 days ahead that came a day later in the eastern U.S. The ECMWF has done a better job of forecasting our storms for the past month. In general it's a better model, but neither model is close to perfect.

The problem with the ECMWF is access to output. The GFS has far more data freely available to the public.

ECMWF data is almost as accessible if you know where to look.

The GFS suffers from poor run to run continuity because its snow-ice-melt dynamics are incredibly poor. The Canadian is the best model in this regard (no surprise, bc Canada). The ECMWF is in between.

But the models' abilities to resolve snowfall and ice melt/formation during their runs is extremely poor and one of the main reasons the GFS is so terrible.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #282 on: April 10, 2018, 06:03:13 AM »
...!

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #283 on: April 10, 2018, 09:01:24 AM »
What's the verdict on GFS vs ECMWF?

I see your point. I picked a random spot but selecting a few locations nearby I get 3.6C to 6.4C just now.
Uniquorn
Here is the link to the thread previously discusoing the high SSTs in the area you are referring to :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595

be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #284 on: April 10, 2018, 09:29:02 AM »
As this is the place for speculation and snow .. I can report that all snow in N. Ireland has melted but .. !  .. there is 2 days of snow forecast before the end of the month . I could post this in the N. Hemisphere snow cover thread .. but that is obviously the wrong place .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #285 on: April 10, 2018, 09:33:13 AM »
Rough weather for Bering Strait and Bering Sea for the next 5 days, winds are from north.
Image: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #286 on: April 10, 2018, 12:00:38 PM »
ECMWF data is almost as accessible if you know where to look.

Where do you suggest for "operational" ECMWF data?

For reanalysis data see:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1871.msg149314.html#msg149314
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #287 on: April 10, 2018, 02:32:50 PM »
Thanks Niall.
windytv displays ecmwf and gfs.
https://www.windy.com/?temp,76.568,14.854,4,m:fOAagpe

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #288 on: April 10, 2018, 04:12:33 PM »
As this is the place for speculation and snow .. I can report that all snow in N. Ireland has melted but .. !  .. there is 2 days of snow forecast before the end of the month . I could post this in the N. Hemisphere snow cover thread .. but that is obviously the wrong place .. b.c.

We are having some of the best late skiing in years in Vermont.
https://www.trappfamily.com/activities.htm

This relates to Arctic Sea Ice melt, because as the Arctic is warmer, the jet stream is wavier, and by luck it tends to keep our area cool enough, with snow going pretty well. We'll be skiing every day for weeks at this point  We are well above average snow on our highest mountain for this time of year.
http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

The way the Arctic affects this area is fascinating, winds sometimes blowing straight from the Arctic and Hudson Bay, sometimes across the iceberg-laden Baffin Bay.

It will be interesting to see what happens around here in summer when Lincoln, Nares might be melted out, and north of the CAA. Maybe for the first time in ... centuries? Open water from Fram to Beaufort and Nares a possibility this year , or next?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2018, 05:09:48 PM by Thomas Barlow »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #289 on: April 10, 2018, 05:07:48 PM »
ECMWF data is almost as accessible if you know where to look.

Where do you suggest for "operational" ECMWF data?

For reanalysis data see:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1871.msg149314.html#msg149314

I go here and adjust settings accordingly:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #290 on: April 10, 2018, 06:28:07 PM »
Windy has ECMWF, but you can’t see high latitudes well because of the projection.

GFS frequently tells me there’ll be no wind, and we get strong winds instead.

The Canadian model doesn’t seem to be as good as the euro when it comes to topography. It’ll forecast strong winds from the NE and we’ll get nothing — because Iqaluit is mostly in a valley oriented perpendicular to that. Might be an accident of grid size, or even of grid position.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #291 on: April 10, 2018, 07:03:07 PM »
Windy has ECMWF, but you can’t see high latitudes well because of the projection.
windy has a 3d mode in the menu

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #292 on: April 10, 2018, 09:44:32 PM »
Kara forked tongue. Ascat day40-98

Technical note:
ImageJ: adjusted brightness/contrast 23-255 (some loss), CLAHE 127-256-2.2
gimp: duplicate final frame, scale 200%, sharpen 60
thanks to A-team for tips on ascat graphics


Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #293 on: April 10, 2018, 10:54:19 PM »
For ECMWF SLP I like to check Tropical Tidbits, but I still look at Wetterzentrale as well (on the ASIG Forecasts page, where the Climate Reanalyzer GFS SAT etc is as well).
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #294 on: April 11, 2018, 08:36:28 AM »
Interesting to see whether that thick ice northeast of Severnaya Zemlya is going to reach the "Death Zone" this season or if it's going to stay in the Arctic basin.

We shall see!

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #295 on: April 11, 2018, 12:50:47 PM »
bbr2314 has already mentioned it, but for the sake of completeness: here the direct link to the ECMFW forecast for the North Pole from weather.us. I am not aware of any other site that offers so many different parameters for the ECMFW-model (under parameters obviously): 2m, 925, 850, 500 mbar Air temps, snow depth, Due point, different wind speeds, cloud cover, heat flux, air pollution, etc).
Another neat feature is the easy way to compare different models, not just GFS(US), but also
CAN and AUS.
 
It is also available for other languages, amongst them german (advantage, temps are in Celsius).
By way of example:

« Last Edit: April 11, 2018, 12:57:03 PM by S.Pansa »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #296 on: April 11, 2018, 01:20:21 PM »
There were clear skies over the Mackenzie Delta yesterday, revealing some open(ish) areas in the Beaufort Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2018/#Apr-11

Only the merest hint of a blip on the area graph so far though:
« Last Edit: April 11, 2018, 02:44:30 PM by Jim Hunt »
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #297 on: April 11, 2018, 06:02:05 PM »
Windy has ECMWF, but you can’t see high latitudes well because of the projection.

GFS frequently tells me there’ll be no wind, and we get strong winds instead.

The Canadian model doesn’t seem to be as good as the euro when it comes to topography. It’ll forecast strong winds from the NE and we’ll get nothing — because Iqaluit is mostly in a valley oriented perpendicular to that. Might be an accident of grid size, or even of grid position.

doesn't windy give a choice between 4 or 5 sources? perhaps i mix this up but see the shot  below

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #298 on: April 12, 2018, 01:42:07 PM »
Based on NCEP data+gisstemp estimates, the past 3 winters have been the warmest on the arctic by far. I think this tells us much more about the state of the ice than any models. If the ice is thinner, more fractured, the temperatures are higher I guess. So this ice is likely not in a very good state

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #299 on: April 12, 2018, 04:27:58 PM »
Yes, and the ice has responded with the lowest maxima.  However, the past summers have not been the warmest.  The warmest summers have been, not surprisingly, 2007, 11, and 12 (2016 was the fourth warmest).  These correspond to the lowest ice minima.  Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.  The warmest spring (AMJ) occurring in 2010, which resulted in the largest annual ice loss, but the temperatures cooled in July, slowing the remaining ice loss.

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/