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FrostKing70

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #300 on: April 12, 2018, 05:36:24 PM »
El Cid,

What is the scale on the right?

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #301 on: April 12, 2018, 06:10:30 PM »
Not the best news for Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea - after strong northern winds (until Saturday) earth.nullschool shows strong southern winds starting around Sunday, bringing temperatures above 0 °C and lasting for several days (until Wednesday at least). Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea - Apr 09 - Apr 11, Worldview.

josh-j

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #302 on: April 12, 2018, 06:19:50 PM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.

Excuse me for sticking my nose in here, but the monthly temperature rankings at Zach's site look more like showing that 2000 had the coolest summer this century so far. Undoubtedly a bit of a cooler reoccurrence recently but nevertheless..

6roucho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #303 on: April 12, 2018, 06:50:14 PM »
Wasn’t 2000 in the 20th century?

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #304 on: April 12, 2018, 06:52:52 PM »
Wasn’t 2000 in the 20th century?

Yes, it was.

josh-j

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #305 on: April 12, 2018, 11:34:50 PM »
Wasn’t 2000 in the 20th century?

D'oh!  ::) Carry on!  :-X

Edit: Apologies, Dan B.

litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #306 on: April 13, 2018, 01:26:05 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 01:41:37 AM by litesong »

kiwichick16

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #307 on: April 13, 2018, 01:47:39 AM »
Thanks  el cid  @  #300   

That graph must have a significant trend line

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #308 on: April 13, 2018, 04:04:02 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.

Your last post was rather confusing.  Are you claiming that low TSI was or was not responsible for the cooler summers?  Or are you just denying that the summers were cooler?  Or are you just spurting nonsense and name calling, because you have no clue?

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #309 on: April 13, 2018, 04:37:14 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.


I too sense some denial with Daniel B. but this is off topic. Sp lets keep on topic.
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litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #310 on: April 13, 2018, 08:43:35 AM »
I too sense some denial with Daniel B. but this is off topic. Sp lets keep on topic.
Read more of AGW denier daniel, & you will know he is an AGW denier. If AGW deniers post in error, no post to oppose their error is off-topic.

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #311 on: April 13, 2018, 09:29:16 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.

Can you please explain what you mean? The weak sun is responsible for colder arctic summers?

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #312 on: April 13, 2018, 09:59:40 AM »
El Cid,

What is the scale on the right?

The left scale is DJF average temp north of 60, in degree C.

colchonero

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #313 on: April 13, 2018, 01:08:12 PM »
I too sense some denial with Daniel B. but this is off topic. So lets keep on topic.
Read more of AGW denier daniel, & you will know he is an AGW denier. If AGW deniers post in error, no post to oppose their error is off-topic.

Ok, he is a denier so what? It's just his current opinion. It might be wrong or ignorant from your perspective, but we are all wrong 'bout something. You don't have to refer to him like that everytime you mention his name and rub it in everybody's face. I mean you can of course if you want, it's free speech, it just sounds  so stupid and weird when you write it multiple times in a single comment every time you mention him, and it's not his name nor his profession, it's just his temporary position, that he can change as soon as tomorrow. We can actually get it if you write it once. It makes no sense to write it multiple times. It'd be like when you go to buy to something, to refer to the guy working there "hey you global warming denier/alarmist John give me 2 pounds of burger meat" or to tell other people like "there is this Lakers' fan Mike at the food court, he sells pizza and pasta, and this Lakers' fan Mike has damn good prices". What do you think how would people look at you??


Now on topic. Not much changes from past couple of days. Both GFS and ECMWF see HP over the central basin, with positive anomalies, over parts of the Arctic. Highest anomalies forecasted on the Russian side and the central Arctic.  CAA, coastal Beaufort, and Atlantic side, Kara sea etc. on the other hand should remain about or below average
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 01:23:39 PM by colchonero »

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #314 on: April 13, 2018, 01:50:21 PM »
I agree with colchonero.
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dosibl

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #315 on: April 13, 2018, 03:19:16 PM »
The Bering sea is quickly racking up warming anomaly, last season set a record of ~160 MJ/m2 by the end of June, this season is on pace to double that. My understanding of this data is that it doesn't account for cloud cover (hence the 'potential'), but its another metric into the unusual season on that side of the world.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #316 on: April 13, 2018, 04:41:55 PM »
The Bering sea is quickly racking up warming anomaly, last season set a record of ~160 MJ/m2 by the end of June, this season is on pace to double that. My understanding of this data is that it doesn't account for cloud cover (hence the 'potential'), but its another metric into the unusual season on that side of the world.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs

At 334 J/g to melt ice, that's an extra 479Kg/m2 of melt potential, or about 0.52m of ice melt.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #317 on: April 13, 2018, 06:06:09 PM »
The Bering sea is quickly racking up warming anomaly, last season set a record of ~160 MJ/m2 by the end of June, this season is on pace to double that. My understanding of this data is that it doesn't account for cloud cover (hence the 'potential'), but its another metric into the unusual season on that side of the world.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs

At 334 J/g to melt ice, that's an extra 479Kg/m2 of melt potential, or about 0.52m of ice melt.

Combined with an (IMO) likely impending weak to (more likely) moderate El Nino, I suspect the max for 18-19 in the Bering will be under 100K KM^2 extent. The additional potential energy accumulated this winter/spring is likely sufficient to flip the sea forever, the ice that formed this yr was generally .5M or less in thickness which is why it was obliterated so quickly.


jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #318 on: April 13, 2018, 06:38:30 PM »
 I've been pondering the Bering for a while now this season.  The change in potential is like giving a "kick" to a pendulum, which has less meaningful impact now, but unknown but possibly dangerous ones later in the season.

I have three questions I will be trying to answer as we continue.
1) How will this heat and early open extent affect weather.
2) How much will escape to the Chukchi and how soon.
3) What cascade may take place as a result of the first two events.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #319 on: April 13, 2018, 06:42:18 PM »
I've been pondering the Bering for a while now this season.  The change in potential is like giving a "kick" to a pendulum, which has less meaningful impact now, but unknown but possibly dangerous ones later in the season.

I have three questions I will be trying to answer as we continue.
1) How will this heat and early open extent affect weather.
2) How much will escape to the Chukchi and how soon.
3) What cascade may take place as a result of the first two events.


jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #320 on: April 13, 2018, 07:03:54 PM »
I don't think the open water in the Bering is the source of the heat generating anomalies further north. I don't think it has enough heat to do that.  I think the actual source of heat has been the huge volumes of moisture that have swept north by storms.

The heat in the Bering at this juncture is just grease on the skids.  When SSTs climb above 0 is when direct effects of heat in the Bering will come into play.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #321 on: April 13, 2018, 07:13:59 PM »
I don't think the open water in the Bering is the source of the heat generating anomalies further north. I don't think it has enough heat to do that.  I think the actual source of heat has been the huge volumes of moisture that have swept north by storms.

The heat in the Bering at this juncture is just grease on the skids.  When SSTs climb above 0 is when direct effects of heat in the Bering will come into play.
I don't know about that. The anomalies further north could be a result of the accumulated heat content over the past 365 days / Pacific salinity intrusion. This is directly due to Bering's increasingly early melt -> enhanced transport of Pac heat into the Chukchi/Beaufort. But you are also probably partially / mostly correct in asserting that the storms have also been a major source of heat. 

Ken Feldman

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #322 on: April 13, 2018, 07:38:48 PM »
I've been pondering the Bering for a while now this season.  The change in potential is like giving a "kick" to a pendulum, which has less meaningful impact now, but unknown but possibly dangerous ones later in the season.

I have three questions I will be trying to answer as we continue.
1) How will this heat and early open extent affect weather.
2) How much will escape to the Chukchi and how soon.
3) What cascade may take place as a result of the first two events.

Some basic info about flow of water from the Bering Sea to the Arctic in this presentation:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Woodgate_AONSeattleNov2015_17thNov2015.pdf

The linked presentation provides the results of 25 years (1990 to 2015) of monitoring flows through the Bering Strait.  Flows from the Pacific into the Arctic are on the order of about 1 Sv which is 1/3 to 1/5 the average flows across the Fram Strait.  The strait is usually ice covered from January through April, so the area opened a little earlier this year, but still has some ice in it.  I'm not sure this is going to have a large impact on the rest of the melt season.  I think, as 2007 and 2012, it will come down to the May melt ponds and the amount of ice exported across the Fram.

Here's a paper on the southern Bering Sea:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5619787/

It's seasonally ice covered as described below:

Quote
The eastern Bering Sea is ice-free during the summer and much of the fall. Sea ice usually begins to form on the northern shelf in December, with strong, frigid northerly winds both opening polynyas where sea ice forms and advecting the ice southward [5]. The leading edge melts, cooling and freshening the water column. Typically, ice appears on the southern shelf in January, reaches a maximum in February or March, and is gone by mid-May [6]. In cold years, sea ice advances more than 1000 km from the Bering Strait (66°N) to the Alaskan Peninsula, while in warmer years, ice remains north of 58°N.

Historically, the southeastern Bering Sea has been characterized by high year-to-year variability in sea-ice extent in March and April [7]. This high variability was interrupted in 2001 by a five-year period of low (almost nonexistent on the southern shelf) sea-ice extent and warm ocean temperatures (2001–2005). To improve understanding of how long-term warming can impact this ecosystem, a major study (Bering Sea Project, http://www.nprb.org/bering-sea-project) was designed to explore this ecosystem from 2007 to 2010. Because of the historical record of high inter-annual variability, it was expected that at least one of the project years would also support warmer (less sea ice) conditions. Unfortunately for the Bering Sea Project, the warm period of 2001–2005 was followed by a period of extensive sea ice during spring and cold ocean temperatures over the entire eastern shelf (2007–2012) [7,8]. During the intermediate year, 2006, some ice was observed on the southern shelf and ocean temperatures were near normal.
 

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #323 on: April 13, 2018, 07:43:47 PM »
I don't think the open water in the Bering is the source of the heat generating anomalies further north. I don't think it has enough heat to do that.  I think the actual source of heat has been the huge volumes of moisture that have swept north by storms.

The heat in the Bering at this juncture is just grease on the skids.  When SSTs climb above 0 is when direct effects of heat in the Bering will come into play.

You think maybe the Arctic is no longer a desert?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #324 on: April 13, 2018, 07:54:51 PM »
I've been pondering the Bering for a while now this season.  The change in potential is like giving a "kick" to a pendulum, which has less meaningful impact now, but unknown but possibly dangerous ones later in the season.

I have three questions I will be trying to answer as we continue.
1) How will this heat and early open extent affect weather.
2) How much will escape to the Chukchi and how soon.
3) What cascade may take place as a result of the first two events.

Some basic info about flow of water from the Bering Sea to the Arctic in this presentation:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Woodgate_AONSeattleNov2015_17thNov2015.pdf

The linked presentation provides the results of 25 years (1990 to 2015) of monitoring flows through the Bering Strait.  Flows from the Pacific into the Arctic are on the order of about 1 Sv which is 1/3 to 1/5 the average flows across the Fram Strait.  The strait is usually ice covered from January through April, so the area opened a little earlier this year, but still has some ice in it.  I'm not sure this is going to have a large impact on the rest of the melt season.  I think, as 2007 and 2012, it will come down to the May melt ponds and the amount of ice exported across the Fram.

Here's a paper on the southern Bering Sea:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5619787/

It's seasonally ice covered as described below:

Quote
The eastern Bering Sea is ice-free during the summer and much of the fall. Sea ice usually begins to form on the northern shelf in December, with strong, frigid northerly winds both opening polynyas where sea ice forms and advecting the ice southward [5]. The leading edge melts, cooling and freshening the water column. Typically, ice appears on the southern shelf in January, reaches a maximum in February or March, and is gone by mid-May [6]. In cold years, sea ice advances more than 1000 km from the Bering Strait (66°N) to the Alaskan Peninsula, while in warmer years, ice remains north of 58°N.

Historically, the southeastern Bering Sea has been characterized by high year-to-year variability in sea-ice extent in March and April [7]. This high variability was interrupted in 2001 by a five-year period of low (almost nonexistent on the southern shelf) sea-ice extent and warm ocean temperatures (2001–2005). To improve understanding of how long-term warming can impact this ecosystem, a major study (Bering Sea Project, http://www.nprb.org/bering-sea-project) was designed to explore this ecosystem from 2007 to 2010. Because of the historical record of high inter-annual variability, it was expected that at least one of the project years would also support warmer (less sea ice) conditions. Unfortunately for the Bering Sea Project, the warm period of 2001–2005 was followed by a period of extensive sea ice during spring and cold ocean temperatures over the entire eastern shelf (2007–2012) [7,8]. During the intermediate year, 2006, some ice was observed on the southern shelf and ocean temperatures were near normal.


The paper linked shows Bering avg inflows increased 50% from the 00s to 2014.. I would guess we have seen a similar year over year increase between 2017->2018 (or larger) due to the lack of sea ice. HYCOM's SSS maps clearly show the push, I would not be shocked if this yr surpassed 2-2.5Sv.

Archimid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #325 on: April 13, 2018, 07:55:47 PM »
Animation of SSTA near the Bering Sea from March 26 to April 12 
Original images from: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #326 on: April 13, 2018, 08:11:59 PM »
Polar SSTA's from 12 Apr 2015 to 12 Apr 2018.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #327 on: April 13, 2018, 09:01:57 PM »
Just looking at this real-time picture - northern winds have pushed ice away and significant body of open water can be seen. And this is just before storms and warmer weather so we should expect Chukchi Sea ice area numbers going lower soon. Image: https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 09:33:03 PM by romett1 »

Ken Feldman

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #328 on: April 13, 2018, 09:03:01 PM »

The paper linked shows Bering avg inflows increased 50% from the 00s to 2014.. I would guess we have seen a similar year over year increase between 2017->2018 (or larger) due to the lack of sea ice. HYCOM's SSS maps clearly show the push, I would not be shocked if this yr surpassed 2-2.5Sv.

In a follow on paper (abstract available here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117302215?via%3Dihub), the authors indicate that the increase in flow was a maximum of 1.2 Sv in 2014.  They state that the data shows a long term increase of 0.01 Sv per year.  So 2 to 2.5 Sv would seem outside of the realm of possibility.

Quote
Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990–2015) document a long-term increase (∼0.01 Sv/yr) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic. Between 2002 and 2015, all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (∼0.8 Sv). The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2 ± 0.1 Sv) is 70% higher than the record-length minimum (2001: 0.7 ± 0.1 Sv)

The flows also seem to be dominated by pressure differences between the Pacific and the Arctic, not winds, so the absence of ice a month earlier than normal wouldn't have much influence over the flows.

Quote
By separating the flow into portions driven by (a) the local wind and (b) a far-field (Pacific-Arctic “pressure-head”) forcing, we find the increase in the Bering Strait throughflow is primarily due to a strong increase in the far-field forcing, not changes in the wind.

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #329 on: April 13, 2018, 09:41:21 PM »
Some basic info about flow of water from the Bering Sea to the Arctic in this presentation:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Woodgate_AONSeattleNov2015_17thNov2015.pdf

The linked presentation provides the results of 25 years (1990 to 2015) of monitoring flows through the Bering Strait.
Great presentation. Thanks!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #330 on: April 13, 2018, 11:05:37 PM »

The paper linked shows Bering avg inflows increased 50% from the 00s to 2014.. I would guess we have seen a similar year over year increase between 2017->2018 (or larger) due to the lack of sea ice. HYCOM's SSS maps clearly show the push, I would not be shocked if this yr surpassed 2-2.5Sv.

In a follow on paper (abstract available here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117302215?via%3Dihub), the authors indicate that the increase in flow was a maximum of 1.2 Sv in 2014.  They state that the data shows a long term increase of 0.01 Sv per year.  So 2 to 2.5 Sv would seem outside of the realm of possibility.

Quote
Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990–2015) document a long-term increase (∼0.01 Sv/yr) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic. Between 2002 and 2015, all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (∼0.8 Sv). The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2 ± 0.1 Sv) is 70% higher than the record-length minimum (2001: 0.7 ± 0.1 Sv)

The flows also seem to be dominated by pressure differences between the Pacific and the Arctic, not winds, so the absence of ice a month earlier than normal wouldn't have much influence over the flows.

Quote
By separating the flow into portions driven by (a) the local wind and (b) a far-field (Pacific-Arctic “pressure-head”) forcing, we find the increase in the Bering Strait throughflow is primarily due to a strong increase in the far-field forcing, not changes in the wind.

The ice wasn't absent a month earlier than normal, it barely even formed to begin with... there was literally only about 30 days of solid ice cover in the Strait this winter.

Because of how thin it was, even during February, it was vacuuming large amounts of Pac water into the Chukchi.



2014 may have been unprecedented but it was nothing compared to this year's situation, IMO, which was far worse.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #331 on: April 15, 2018, 01:37:42 PM »
Some basic info about flow of water from the Bering Sea to the Arctic in this presentation:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Woodgate_AONSeattleNov2015_17thNov2015.pdf

The linked presentation provides the results of 25 years (1990 to 2015) of monitoring flows through the Bering Strait.
Great presentation. Thanks!
Adding my thanks. Great presentation.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #332 on: April 15, 2018, 03:46:59 PM »
Chukchi yesterday and ascat animation jan-apr14.

worldview aqua modis
ascat:
ImageJ brightness/contrast 53-255,CLAHE 63-255-2.2
gimp duplicate final frame,scale 200% unsharp mask 5,0.5,0
(A-team tips)
edit:unsharp mask needs more work, went back to sharpen 50
« Last Edit: April 15, 2018, 04:00:11 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #333 on: April 15, 2018, 07:33:17 PM »
Floes in the 'Kara tongue' NE of Svalbard 'drifting to their doom'. Mostly first year ice held together with younger refreeze.

Worldview aqua/modis and VIIRS temperature brightness band 15, night

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #334 on: April 15, 2018, 10:03:19 PM »
I read somewhere up thread that sea ice temperature may be as useful as air temperature for estimating increase in ice thickness but I found it difficult to visualise a daily animation  from DMI due to weather interference. A 10 day average makes it easier. Unfortunately data is missing from oct20 to nov23rd so I've repeated the two nearest frames.
Quote
At DMI, the temperature of the surface is not measured directly. Instead, observations are used from three infrared channels on the “Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer” (AVHRR), which is on board the MetOp-A satellite. The instrument is unable to see through clouds, however. A statistical method is therefore used to provide the missing data. The edge of the ice is shown as a black contour line. It is defined by a sea ice concentration of 15%, i.e. 15% of the surface is covered by ice.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #335 on: April 15, 2018, 10:13:20 PM »
From the acclaimed makers of



Comes the 2018 edition, out this May:

"Bye Bye Beaufort"

« Last Edit: April 15, 2018, 10:21:10 PM by bbr2314 »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #336 on: April 15, 2018, 10:22:18 PM »
It does look a bit challenged but I think other years have been worse.
worldview brightness temperature viirs band 15, night apr14

numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #337 on: April 16, 2018, 04:33:10 AM »
ECMWF shows a strong high pressure parked over eastern Hudson Bay for the next week, with another high parked over the western Canadian Arctic for some of those days.

It's going to be a bright, bright, bright, sunshiny week.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #338 on: April 16, 2018, 04:42:55 AM »
ECMWF shows a strong high pressure parked over eastern Hudson Bay for the next week, with another high parked over the western Canadian Arctic for some of those days.

It's going to be a bright, bright, bright, sunshiny week.
The ECMWF has consistently been adjusting colder across Canada. It ejects the airmass out too quick each and every run. I am also wondering if it has climo biases that are now making it less accurate vs normal bc the on-the-ground situation is not climo.

It has also been to cold over Bering/Chukchi. I suspect this discrepancy will worsen as we move forward and Bering/Chukchi will bear... formidable heat... very soon.

E.G.

Verification:



D7 forecast:





Also: just discovered this excellent tool showing how terrible the GFS is / has been this year.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_arctic/verification/ANOM2m_bias_past07_arctic.png

The reds are where it has been to warm, the blues, where it has been too cold.

The GFS has a very major problem modeling the Canadian Shield, evidently.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_ntham/verification/ANOM2m_bias_past07_ntham.html
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 06:40:08 AM by bbr2314 »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #339 on: April 16, 2018, 10:42:14 AM »
It does look a bit challenged but I think other years have been worse.

They most certainly have. See mid April 2016 for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #340 on: April 16, 2018, 11:07:48 AM »
Hi Jim .. your Beaufort AMSR2 area graph above shows no recent drop , while the current graph at GWC shows a drop of @ 50,000 km in the last week .. something needs corrected .. cheers b.c.

ps .. seems it's  me that needs correcting .. graph I was looking at on gwc was 2016 ..
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 11:43:08 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #341 on: April 16, 2018, 11:17:39 AM »
BC, if you mean this map, it's for last year:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

colchonero

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #342 on: April 16, 2018, 11:19:34 AM »
One question about these anomalies and this sentence "The reds are where it has been too warm, the blues, where it has been too cold."

Does the red mean it was forecasted too warm(and it was actually colder for that difference), or does it mean it was that much warmer than the cold forecast over that part of the globe?

numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #343 on: April 16, 2018, 01:32:43 PM »
bbr2314: sunshine matters more than temperature during the day (and there’s more day than night now). At -15, in the beating sun, snow melts.

Over the past few days that it’s been -15 and colder in Iqaluit, the snow has melted off the tundra in many places. It’s also been melting off roads to form streams and puddles.

And we’re forecasting most of the Canadian Arctic to be sunny. Good conditions for melt ponding, perhaps? Hopefully not.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #344 on: April 16, 2018, 04:15:26 PM »
ps .. seems it's  me that needs correcting .. graph I was looking at on gwc was 2016 ..

2017 I think? That graph is manually updated, and it hasn't done anything of note this year. Yet!

However I just updated it to avoid any possible future confusion.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #345 on: April 16, 2018, 05:22:07 PM »
The GFS has been moving the short waves faster than reality so the 168 hour forecast looks horrid. It's not quite so bad if you correct for the excess speed. It helps to compare the ECMWF runs with the GFS runs to see how the forecasts are likely to be off.

This year the blocking in the Bering and Chukchi sea region has been persistent, causing the GFS no end of trouble. All models have trouble with blocks, especially the GFS. That's why the GFS has been so bad forecasting the Arctic weather, in my opinion.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #346 on: April 16, 2018, 05:30:49 PM »
The GFS has been moving the short waves faster than reality so the 168 hour forecast looks horrid. It's not quite so bad if you correct for the excess speed. It helps to compare the ECMWF runs with the GFS runs to see how the forecasts are likely to be off.

This year the blocking in the Bering and Chukchi sea region has been persistent, causing the GFS no end of trouble. All models have trouble with blocks, especially the GFS. That's why the GFS has been so bad forecasting the Arctic weather, in my opinion.
The GFS has been complete garbage. You cannot blame weather for a model's terrible output -- it is the model. The Canadian has been far superior.

litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #347 on: April 16, 2018, 06:09:25 PM »
I too sense some denial with Daniel B. but this is off topic. So lets keep on topic.
Read more of AGW denier daniel, & you will know he is an AGW denier. If AGW deniers post in error, no post to oppose their error is off-topic.
Ok, he is a denier so what? It's just his current opinion. It might be wrong or ignorant from your perspective.....
This forum is calm with a lack of AGW deniers. Hope 10 or more AGW deniers don't show up, with less...."delicacy" than daniel. There is much AGW denier energy, self-righteousness & money floating lots of AGW denier  websites. Not to oppose AGW deniers is a mistake that AGW proponents have to correct. AGW scientists are learning this lesson.... belatedly.   

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #348 on: April 16, 2018, 06:19:09 PM »
"Complete garbage" is something you throw in the trash. I'm interested in the hows and whys of model performance so I can scrape any useful information from them and so that the programmers can improve them. The CFSv2 seems to have some luck in forecasting large scale subsidence and uplift anomalies associated with SST anomalies and general atmospheric dynamics. However, its forecasts of sea ice extent are pretty close to garbage.  I'm not satisfied with any of the means that are being used to forecast the melt season. There is no model that does a good job of coupling the physics of the atmosphere, the ice and the ocean to predict sea ice extent, area and volume.

Perhaps the Canadian model does a good job of handling the physics of snow and ice. The American models certainly don't.

The closest year to 2018, in terms of the atmospheric dynamics of NH early spring and late winter, is 2006. Both years had major stratospheric warmings in mid to late February and cold weather that followed in eastern north America and western Europe.  Summer 2006 was a relatively good one for preserving Arctic sea ice. Will the Arctic weather this summer be like summer 2006? I suspect not, because of differences in ocean dynamics and ocean heat distribution, but 2006 may be the best analog year to 2018. Tropical Tidbits looks at analog years for helping with seasonal hurricane forecasts. Last year,  Levi Cohen's Atlantic hurricane forecast was for less than normal hurricane activity so, be careful, but perhaps there's a 12 year cycle given that 2005 was one of the most active hurricane seasons ever and so was 2017. This is relevant to the Arctic because there's a connection between the ocean heat in the tropical Atlantic and the weather in the Arctic.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 06:28:37 PM by FishOutofWater »

colchonero

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #349 on: April 16, 2018, 08:05:15 PM »
This forum is calm with a lack of AGW deniers. Hope 10 or more AGW deniers don't show up, with less...."delicacy" than daniel. There is much AGW denier energy, self-righteousness & money floating lots of AGW denier  websites. Not to oppose AGW deniers is a mistake that AGW proponents have to correct. AGW scientists are learning this lesson.... belatedly.

Okaaay, I guess ??? ???. That's your view on that issue. I think, I can agree partially, partially not (I would agree that GW is totally real, I wouldn't agree on opposing people that doesn't think the same.  I mean opposing is completely fine, but history learned me it doesn't always stick to just opposing, it always begins like that, but sometimes it evolves into telling people what they must accept and mocking them if they don't. Like so many other things in the past, some very good, some not at all.  But we can argue about it some other time via PM, but that has nothing, but really nothing to do with my commenting on how you express yourself to Daniel and how ridiculous is to mention someone in the way mentioned in that comment and I've tried to explain why. My point had nothing to do with how many deniers are here or is that good or bad thing. It wasn't even about deniers, that just happened to be a coincidence because we are on climate forum. It had to do how you should address people in the way that would actually make sense. Apples and oranges. This is my second and last off-topic comment on this.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 08:10:59 PM by colchonero »