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romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #550 on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:23 PM »
Also strong winds forecast for area north of Greenland, starting around Sunday and lasting until Wednesday. Captured this 115 km/h wind gust forecast for Tuesday morning (www.windy.com).

diablobanquisa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #551 on: May 04, 2018, 07:59:21 PM »
Even though 80N is only a small part of the Arctic, I still regard the DMI temperature graph as somewhat indicative of what's going on, a precursor of sorts. In this sense, the current high temperatures there may prove to be significant. Emphasis on 'may'.

Below is what I would consider the most important graph in the latest NSIDC summary. According to the summary there's a record high amount of FYI and record low amount of MYI:

Quote
As averaged over the Arctic Ocean (Figure 4d), the multiyear ice cover during week nine has declined from 61 percent in 1984 to 14 percent in 2018, the least amount of multiyear ice recorded. In addition, only 1 percent of the ice cover is five years or older, also the least amount recorded. This is rather striking since September 2017 did not set a new record low minimum extent. The proportion of first-year versus multiyear ice in spring will largely depend on the amount of open water left at the end of summer over which first-year ice forms. How much ice is transported out of the Arctic through Fram Strait in winter also plays a role. The unusually high amount of first-year ice this March suggests that there was a strong Fram Strait ice export this past winter. Given that (in the absence of ridging) first-year ice grows to about 1.5 to 2 meters (4.9 to 6.6 feet) thick over a winter season, the ice age data point to a fairly thin ice cover. Nevertheless, how much ice melts out this coming summer will depend strongly on summer weather conditions.

I'm not sure how accurate this is. For instance, I'm not seeing the band of MYI extending across the Beaufort towards Chukchi. A-Team, are you reading? What do you think?

I'm afraid Tschudi et al. forgot the ice "birthday" on September 2017,  when 1st year ice (dark blue) becomes 2nd year ice (light blue) , light blue becomes green (3rd year ice), etc.

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/data/

Look for instance at weeks 30, 38, 45:

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/images/iceage_browse_week_n_2017_30_nrt.png
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/images/iceage_browse_week_n_2017_38_nrt.png
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/images/iceage_browse_week_n_2017_45_nrt.png


This could be affecting the results displayed at the time series on http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/05/

I've just sent a message to Mark Tschudi to let him know.





Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #552 on: May 04, 2018, 08:45:57 PM »
I've just sent a message to Mark Tschudi to let him know.

I considered doing this also. Thanks a lot, Diablo.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #553 on: May 04, 2018, 09:28:52 PM »
Cloudy north of Greenland today so I tried fitting together 2 of today's Sentinel1 SAR images on polarview. The result is not that helpful, but it is possible to see the refreeze of the March storm broken by the current lift off due to warmer southerlies.

https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

diablobanquisa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #554 on: May 04, 2018, 10:08:40 PM »
I've just sent a message to Mark Tschudi to let him know.

I considered doing this also. Thanks a lot, Diablo.



 ;)


Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #555 on: May 04, 2018, 10:58:11 PM »
A quick FYI (for your information, not first-year ice, you dummy  ;) ): I have updated the Concentration Maps pages on the ASIG all the way to November, so you can compare the current situation to previous years at any point during this melting season.
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Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #556 on: May 04, 2018, 11:20:21 PM »
ECMWF forecast remains highly interesting, with high pressure picketing on the Siberian side, trying to get to the Beaufort, but not quite making it. The Sun is getting higher, those Siberian seas are at lower latitudes, this should start to have an impact in the form of the first early melt ponds. Especially with that heat pulse washing over in the next couple of days.

Not much export through Fram Strait, which might help the trend line on the Barentsz Sea regional SIA graph to finally start going down.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #557 on: May 05, 2018, 01:06:42 AM »
The ice edge around Svalbard will see a lot of wave action over the next few days. The series of lows passing over also bring rain to the ice to the south and east in the Barents, and maybe further north, The winds will be pushing the ice back as well so extent and area should start going down there

https://www.windy.com/?waves,76.660,-0.791,3,i:pressure,m:fY5afD5

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #558 on: May 05, 2018, 10:07:37 AM »
As next 7 days are anyway interesting north of 80 °N, it is worth looking also longer term forecast. Current models are forecasting new heatwave from the Atlantic side between May 11 and May 16. Image for May 14: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #559 on: May 05, 2018, 10:14:19 AM »
Ascat apr26-may4

imagej brightness/contrast 37,255 clahe 63,256,2.2

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #560 on: May 05, 2018, 11:15:41 AM »
I'm reading this as the weak ice unable to resist deep wave action

The other models are worth a look https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/beaufort.html

wili

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #561 on: May 05, 2018, 12:46:28 PM »
(Not sure where to put this, and apologies if it's already been posted somewhere)

Growing Land‐Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

"By comparing statistics for years with high land‐sea thermal contrast against years with low, we demonstrate that storms over the Arctic Ocean will likely become more frequent and more dynamically intense as the climate warms, increasing the risk to shipping and other human activities."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL077587

Sooo, probably more and stronger 'GAC's coming soon to an Arctic near you!  :) :-\
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Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #562 on: May 05, 2018, 01:05:07 PM »
Is there an update for this one, or an easy way to check it ?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #563 on: May 05, 2018, 01:39:36 PM »

Dharma Rupa

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #565 on: May 05, 2018, 02:12:43 PM »
Is there an update for this one, or an easy way to check it ?

The comparison with 2017 on the graph is constructed by yours truly when he is in the mood.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #566 on: May 05, 2018, 03:10:43 PM »
Is there an update for this one, or an easy way to check it ?
It isn't difficult to make it. There are no significant changes compared to the last.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #567 on: May 05, 2018, 03:42:53 PM »
Has anyone made a graph comparing the current year DMI 80N with the historical daily max?  Just thumbing through the years works some, but the graphs' structure changed some in 2006-2011 period.  2009 & 10 appear to have warmer 80N readings around today's date.  (I note that DMI's 80N calculation is strongly north-pole biased and that there could be a better metric used to discern central Arctic (or the slightly different Central Arctic Basin - CAB) air-temperature related vulnerability.)
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #568 on: May 05, 2018, 03:52:01 PM »
Has anyone made a graph comparing the current year DMI 80N with the historical daily max?

Somone basically recolored all the years and overlaid them on the same graph so it was fairly easy to see how the current year compared to the past, but I don't know where to find it or if it is updated.  I think it was done by one of the posters here.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #569 on: May 05, 2018, 04:08:23 PM »
Has anyone made a graph comparing the current year DMI 80N with the historical daily max?

Somone basically recolored all the years and overlaid them on the same graph so it was fairly easy to see how the current year compared to the past, but I don't know where to find it or if it is updated.  I think it was done by one of the posters here.

Perphaps it is this graph from Zachary Labe? More graphs are available  here

dnem

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #570 on: May 05, 2018, 04:24:25 PM »
Looks like the 2009 peak was a few days later, and warmer, than the current one.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #571 on: May 05, 2018, 04:31:46 PM »
Perphaps it is this graph from Zachary Labe? More graphs are available  here

Yes, and the other graphs are good too.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #572 on: May 05, 2018, 05:45:08 PM »
Ta, y'all. (to mix a metaphor)
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be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #573 on: May 05, 2018, 06:06:22 PM »
regarding the dmi 80 .. this does not look like a spike .. rather we have arrived where we are 17 days earlier than last year .. and the heat seems to want to hang around . 17 days added to the melt season at this stage could easily equate to 1 to 2 million sq kms of extra ice loss ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #574 on: May 05, 2018, 06:21:49 PM »
Is there an update for this one, or an easy way to check it ?
It isn't difficult to make it. There are no significant changes compared to the last.
Difficult? No.
A bit fiddly? Yes.

So I can look forward to being lazy and watching your updates. (The sun is shining in Middle England)

ps:Zlabe's graph is a bit behind the curve. Temperatures North of 80 are now a bit above -10 celsius. They tell me that this means Arctic Sea Ice there is in a new environment - resistance to further ice thickening.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #575 on: May 05, 2018, 11:21:29 PM »
Can't resist an update. Temp North of 80 on 5 May just 6 degrees below zero. Sea ice freezing point minus 1.8 degrees celsius. Probably more upward movement Sunday 6 May and Monday 7 May.

But GFS has changed its mind about a super warming after Monday - now saying by next Wednesday much more modest temperature anomalies (but another big Atlantic side warming starting Sunday May 13?)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2018, 11:27:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #576 on: May 05, 2018, 11:28:47 PM »
"Temp North of 80 on 5 May just 6 degrees below zero."
From what I've learned on these threads: if the 2 meter air temperature is -6C and it has been colder (in recent weeks), the surface ice will be a little below -6 and deeper ice will be colder still, then warming up to about -2 at the ice/water interface when ice growth happens.  How long will it take for the colder 'middle ice' to warm up (due to water freezing below and air (and sunlight) warming it from above? Historically, I think, it was late May or earliest June when the CAB stopped gaining volume.  Will this transition happen earlier this year?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #577 on: May 05, 2018, 11:36:05 PM »
Yesterdays DMI ice surface temperature.
edit-image was very black
« Last Edit: May 05, 2018, 11:45:10 PM by uniquorn »

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #578 on: May 05, 2018, 11:51:04 PM »
Given the current ECMWF weather forecast (reinforcing the one I posted yesterday, in the sense that everything has moved one day closer without changing all that much) and the state of the ice in the Barentsz Sea according to SMOS, there should be some big regional drops there in the coming week, especially if that 984 hPa cyclone comes about 5 days from now. 1030 hPa over the Beaufort/Chukchi isn't to be sneezed at either.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #579 on: May 05, 2018, 11:55:26 PM »
Good visibility on Worldview over much of the arctic for the last month gives an opportunity to look at the ice above the Chukchi Plateau. Apr7-May5

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #580 on: May 06, 2018, 07:14:44 AM »
In regard to the points Neven has made above, the experimental NOAA ESRL page - introduced by A-Team if I remember correctly, who else - has some really nice illustrations and animations. Below the 5-day-forecasts for sea ice thickness & thickness change.

Plus a snapschot of the temp and SLP forecast for +144h.

It is taken from this animation [edit: Oh well - direct linkt doesn't work. The said animation is called "2m Temp, SLP, 10m Winds", to be found in the Atmosphere-section], where we can see how the aforesaid high pressure dome is trying to establish itself all the way from Banks Island to Severnaya Zemlya.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #581 on: May 06, 2018, 07:39:40 AM »
Can't resist an update. Temp North of 80 on 5 May just 6 degrees below zero. Sea ice freezing point minus 1.8 degrees celsius. Probably more upward movement Sunday 6 May and Monday 7 May.

But GFS has changed its mind about a super warming after Monday - now saying by next Wednesday much more modest temperature anomalies (but another big Atlantic side warming starting Sunday May 13?)
We have passed the temperature at which open leads can easily refreeze. (~ -10C/263K)
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Dryland

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #582 on: May 06, 2018, 04:13:28 PM »
In regard to the points Neven has made above, the experimental NOAA ESRL page - introduced by A-Team if I remember correctly, who else - has some really nice illustrations and animations.

I have some of these ESRL products organized for easy access at https://floe.keytwist.net, under Collections/Daily ESRL Forecasts.

Vergent

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #583 on: May 06, 2018, 06:13:30 PM »


The high arctic thaw has begun!



The 80N temperature spike is unprecedented...At least since 2000. At this time of year it is usually hugging the mean line.


Verg

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #584 on: May 06, 2018, 06:33:54 PM »
This amount of heat at the pole in early May is unprecedented, period. I looked back to 1958. There was a pretty good spike in 2006 but there's nothing as warm as this so early.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #585 on: May 06, 2018, 07:03:21 PM »

The 80N temperature spike is unprecedented...At least since 2000. At this time of year it is usually hugging the mean line.
Looks like the fairly large over-temperature hot spot, sitting on the North Pole, might continue sitting there for the next 5 days (even to 10 days?). Smaller cyclonic weather systems may nibble at edges of the hot spot.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2018, 07:20:29 PM by litesong »

Vergent

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #586 on: May 06, 2018, 08:19:29 PM »
GFS is predicting a huge Pacific side snow melt over the next 10 days.





Verg

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #587 on: May 06, 2018, 08:26:14 PM »
thanks for the info but what is crossing my mind, is it that hard to predict huge snow melt in may once a lot of snow is around by then?

sorry if i sound negative but something with this kind of news (in general) triggers something inside me, probably because the world of news is so overloaded with meaningless headlines and content that does often not even reflect the headlines.

perhaps i'm wrong with this but still, it's what i thought while i was reading that.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #588 on: May 06, 2018, 08:33:02 PM »
i think it's basically even somehow luck that it happens so early because if this spike would happen in about 2-4 weeks it would most probably have a catastrophic impact on the reminder of the ice that's mostly first year ice nowadays. if temps will settle to something more close to normal in about 2-3 weeks we could just have dodged the cannon ball for another year.

EDIT: of course, if this pattern is going to more or less last for another 2-3 weeks that was probably it, whatever it means, trying to avoid mistakes of the past here LOL

EDIT-2:  the link for uni-bemen maps has changed so that the link in the ASIG page is mute for now, below you find the currently working link to bookmark until ASIG will be updated:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/
« Last Edit: May 06, 2018, 08:40:08 PM by magnamentis »

Koop in VA

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #589 on: May 06, 2018, 08:55:29 PM »
I, for one, am glad that the snow depth forecast graphic was posted and, if Vargent hadn't done it, I was going to do it myself.  While Vargent points out the large Pacific snow melt out what struck me was that Scandinavia was modeled to be snow free in 10 days and that the land areas around Kara that have 3 to 4 feet of snow was going to see significant melt as well.  Finally, on the Kara Sea itself there was going to be significant snow melt as well that would likely cause the infamous melt ponds.

But to magnamentis' point, I don't have enough context on this melt.  Yes, it's May and it should be expected to have the snow melt.  But the degree of melt within the next 10 days seems rather large but is there enough institutional knowledge here to understand if this is well beyond standard melt?

Further, if it is a large melt, what does a significant in rush of 33 degree F water do to the melt of sea ice in the Kara or the Laptev?  More questions than answers but to see Alaska, except the North Slope, be predicted to be essentially snow free and to see the same in Scandinavia by mid-May seems like a fairly big deal.  But is there a website that can put this melt in context?

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #590 on: May 06, 2018, 09:58:27 PM »
....what is crossing my mind, is it that hard to predict huge snow melt in may once a lot of snow is around by then? .....sorry if i sound negative.....
Actually, you sound like you believe in AGW. Tho AGW scientists predict increases in precipitation(snow, fer sure), it is also construed that global AGW excess heat will not let extra snow become extra long term snow to necessarily become excess ice. 

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #591 on: May 06, 2018, 10:51:54 PM »
GFS is predicting a huge Pacific side snow melt over the next 10 days.

GFS is not reliable for snow depth on Arctic sea ice.  Every year, the model exaggerates the speed at which the snow melts.  See for example the GFS snow depth forecasts that were posted on this forum in the past few years, e.g. the forecasts for 20 May 2017 and for 18 May 2016.  Neither of those forecasts was successful.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #592 on: May 07, 2018, 12:00:27 AM »
....what is crossing my mind, is it that hard to predict huge snow melt in may once a lot of snow is around by then? .....sorry if i sound negative.....
Actually, you sound like you believe in AGW. Tho AGW scientists predict increases in precipitation(snow, fer sure), it is also construed that global AGW excess heat will not let extra snow become extra long term snow to necessarily become excess ice.

all that is 100% true, i just can't see where i said otherwise but however, yes, that's how i see things ;)
« Last Edit: May 07, 2018, 10:44:11 AM by magnamentis »

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #593 on: May 07, 2018, 07:14:34 AM »
GFS is predicting a huge Pacific side snow melt over the next 10 days.

Verg

If I recall correctly from looking at various weather models, I believe the Chukchi is going to get some rain, which might explain the rapid drop.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #594 on: May 07, 2018, 10:30:25 AM »
Sea ice dragon.
Polarview Sentinel 1 SAR north of Svalbard

dosibl

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #595 on: May 07, 2018, 04:19:36 PM »
Is there a product or model people would recommend for tracking cloud cover? CCI reanalyzer has a precipitation/cloud cover display but its hard to judge clouds on ice.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #596 on: May 07, 2018, 09:39:39 PM »
Zack Labe has updated his DMI 80N temp graph. This year clearly standing out. Thanks, Zack!
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #597 on: May 07, 2018, 09:47:43 PM »
Zack Labe has updated his DMI 80N temp graph. This year clearly standing out. Thanks, Zack!
It is interesting to look at how the graphs had compared with previous years as the same "head and shoulders" leads were a good benchmark for the ensuing anomalies in autumn. I would think this portends a very, very warm fall for the Atlantic-facing regions of the Arctic.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #598 on: May 07, 2018, 10:32:08 PM »
Anomalously thick ice in the Laptev Sea, May4

Worldview terra/modis, viirs brightness temperature band 15, night

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #599 on: May 08, 2018, 01:34:55 AM »
Anomalously thick ice in the Laptev Sea, May4

How do you determine the thickness of the ice from the images?