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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #650 on: May 10, 2018, 03:49:52 PM »
Can the Bremen map possibly be accurate?

The ice has never melted by the pole. I can't remember it even being that thin before, let alone in May.

These are usually artifacts caused by clouds or melt ponds or glitches or whatever. My rule of thumb is: The yellow/green colours need to persist in the same place for at least three days. If that's the case, it may be that there is ice divergence there due to melting and/or winds.

BTW, if you want to see if something happened before, or when, you can compare concentration maps on this special page on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page (pick a date): Concentration Maps.
What Neven said.

I'll add, we have seen lower concentration at the pole before. 2013 stands out in my mind particularly in that regard, so it is not unheard of.

We haven't yet had a true "blue water" event at the pole either (no ice at 90N as far as the eye can see), though we have come close .

I'm far less concerned about that than I am the condition of the ice in the system as a whole.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #651 on: May 10, 2018, 05:03:35 PM »
It's looking like most likely for min extent is under 4 million:

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #652 on: May 10, 2018, 05:07:16 PM »
Jaxa is more like exactly 4 million on average:

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #653 on: May 10, 2018, 07:58:09 PM »
Jaxa is more like exactly 4 million on average:
One of the consequences of lower maxes is the appearance of less ice loss on an annual basis.  I think the loss of winter ice in peripheral seas has made analysis based on annual statistical methods far less skillful.

I'm wondering if we might find it useful to drop some peripheral seas from what now really is an analysis of changing conditions in the CAB, CAA, Beaufort, ESS, Chukchi and Laptev.  The rest either melt out completely now, or do not fully refreeze, or both, which I think skews our perception of what is happening.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #654 on: May 10, 2018, 08:05:03 PM »
It's looking like most likely for min extent is under 4 million:

Similar predictions on both. And it looks reasonable, but a lot can happen especially over next 8 weeks, will tell a lot.

The year date on the chart based on NSIDC data needs to be changed.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #655 on: May 10, 2018, 10:00:14 PM »
The ice in the Beaufort Sea is about to pull away from the Canadian and Alaskan coasts:
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #656 on: May 11, 2018, 05:13:12 AM »
It will be interesting to see how long all the recent refreeze out from the coast of Alaska will last. And the glue ice. A lot of the Beaufort rapidly turned to mush last year.

There's also a lot of thin ice in the Laptev Sea beyond the fast ice . It's still just cold enough for refreeze there as ice is exported but there will be open water there before long. I've made an animation of the last 5 days to see through the partial cloud.

Around the line between fast and mobile ice, particularly north of the New Siberian Islands NOAA's sst chart has shown persistent and spreading warm anomalies. I'm not sure how this is derived or inferred. Is it Atlantification? I've got a chart from 10 June last year(closest date I can find) which is quite similar around the area

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #657 on: May 11, 2018, 05:36:15 AM »
Jaxa is more like exactly 4 million on average:

I wouldn't pay to much attention to predictions like that. So much can change in short amounts of time. Really all that is, is a bunch of numbers being crunched together. 
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binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #658 on: May 11, 2018, 04:47:44 PM »
Been looking at the Mackenzie river and it's starting to break ice cover some 700-800 km from the coast. But near the small town of Tsiigehtchic (some 150 km from the coast) the Arctic Red River seems to have cleared itself.

Just 10km downstream from Tsiigehtchic the Mackenzie river exits the low hills (moraines) and there, to the east of the river, a lot of water seems to be accumulating. I've marked the edge of the moraines with red, the black area to the northeast is probably water.

In Norway the melt is off to a cracking start, as show in the video in this article.

EDIT: The black lettering disappears, but the arrow points at Tsiigehtchic, at the confluence of the Mackenzie and the Arctic Red River.
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Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #659 on: May 11, 2018, 10:47:02 PM »
Ice drift and speed for the coming week (click to animate):
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 11:20:41 AM by Neven »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #660 on: May 11, 2018, 11:09:57 PM »
The winds would favor export out through the Nares Strait but I doubt the ice arch will break just yet.

The ECMWF and GFS diverge but they both predict warmth and easterly winds across the north shore of Alaska. This will help bring on early melt in the Beaufort like we have seen in recent years.

meddoc

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #661 on: May 12, 2018, 09:08:36 AM »
I doubt that the Ice by Trends alone is headed straight down to Zero this Year- but the Real Question is:
maybe it is enough to just go below- let's say 2- 2,5 M km2- to let the Cap fly off of all that Methane Hydrate lying underneath (i.e: Global Catastrophy).
Or just to have a couple of consecutive Years with exposed substantial Surface of the Arctic Ocean...

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #662 on: May 12, 2018, 11:01:50 AM »
Can the Bremen map possibly be accurate? -snip-
Looks like some warm Atlantic water moved west north of greenland, and moves still.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #663 on: May 12, 2018, 12:26:33 PM »
It's pretty amazing how much happend is just the few last years. If you look at these average temperature pics . It's only in the last few years that the temperature stayed north of the average the entire winter.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #664 on: May 12, 2018, 12:55:43 PM »
Not that I have a great amount of confidence in GFS temperature forecasts, but the current one is running pretty anomalously warm:

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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #665 on: May 12, 2018, 01:20:15 PM »
Looking at Wipneus' animation on the AMSR2 thread, the clear area north of Svalbard has grown substantially in the last few days, and lots of ice in the Barents seems to have winked out. Also the Chukchi thin ice zone seems to have taken a big hit.

meddoc

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #666 on: May 12, 2018, 02:10:53 PM »
Not that I have a great amount of confidence in GFS temperature forecasts, but the current one is running pretty anomalously warm:



Indeed. Antarctica meanwhile has also seen pretty anomalously warm Temps.
Of course, there the Situation is not that acute as with the Arctic...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #667 on: May 12, 2018, 02:11:44 PM »
Not that I have a great amount of confidence in GFS temperature forecasts, but the current one is running pretty anomalously warm:
What also interested me was the succession of lows due to cross the  Atlantic are not forecast to reach Western Europe but to head north up between Greenland and Scandinavia. Presumably relatively warm winds and a bit of rain will be consistently shovelling warm air and warm sea up towards the frozen heart of the Arctic Ocean.

ps: The UK Metoffice says really dry in England for the next two weeks - hoorah!.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #668 on: May 12, 2018, 02:54:56 PM »
It's pretty amazing how much happend is just the few last years. If you look at these average temperature pics . It's only in the last few years that the temperature stayed north of the average the entire winter.

The Arctic Climate changed to a Maritime Climate on about December 29th 2015.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #669 on: May 12, 2018, 03:05:13 PM »
The Arctic Climate changed to a Maritime Climate on about December 29th 2015.

Yes, I remember that day well. The sea breeze wafting in...
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 08:31:58 PM by Neven »
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #670 on: May 12, 2018, 03:12:19 PM »
The Arctic Climate changed to a Maritime Climate on about December 29th 2015.
Yes, I remember that day well. The sea breeze wafting in...

I am not able to see the image...
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 03:48:49 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #671 on: May 12, 2018, 03:58:41 PM »
Juan, I don't think there is an image for you to see (I can see from your screenshot what seems to be a missing image, but I'm not seeing that). Anyway,  I think Neven is just being a bit off-topically sarcastic and any image would have been in the same vein (or vain?).
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #672 on: May 12, 2018, 04:47:31 PM »
The Arctic Climate changed to a Maritime Climate on about December 29th 2015.
Yes, I remember that day well. The sea breeze wafting in...

I am not able to see the image...
On the 29th December 2015 the Arctic was too dark for the photo to come out. Another scoop missed.
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Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #673 on: May 12, 2018, 04:56:43 PM »
What would be the impact of this ? Can it push the ice out of Baffin ? It has 25 feet waves. But it's making a circle.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #674 on: May 12, 2018, 05:12:45 PM »
Yes, ice in the southwestern Labrador sea is going to take a beating with winds and waves. Central and northern Baffin bay, however, will not be affected today by the storm near the south tip of Greenland.

The ice in the Beaufort sea will also take a beating with warm easterly winds and Ekman upwelling.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #675 on: May 12, 2018, 05:22:29 PM »
Is there enough Sun yet for the high over most of the Arctic Ocean to really count?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #676 on: May 12, 2018, 05:29:21 PM »
A look back at Beaufort Sea for previous years on this date. Worldview terra/modis May11, 2000-2018.

bottom left corner of 2012 image flood filled

charles_oil

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #677 on: May 12, 2018, 05:47:38 PM »
Uniquorn - Great Gif - like the pause at the end.  Doesn't look like any particular pattern emerges - seems almost random....

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #678 on: May 12, 2018, 06:30:14 PM »
Random, like weather.
DMI ice surface temperature for the current melting season. Mar22-May11

I forgot mar21

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #679 on: May 12, 2018, 08:07:12 PM »
Uniquorn thanks for the animation. 2016 had a horrible season start in the Beaufort, this year is more focused on the Chukchi and is still lagging behind overall. Hopefully it will keep on lagging.

numerobis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #680 on: May 12, 2018, 08:07:42 PM »
What would be the impact of this ? Can it push the ice out of Baffin ? It has 25 feet waves. But it's making a circle.

The impact is I'm staying indoors while my partner goes skiing with friends, because I can't stand being in 40+ km/h winds. I went outside for five minutes to sand a piece of wood and even that was uncomfortable for me (but the wind was fantastic at blowing the sawdust away while I worked).

For the ice: it's bringing up much warmer temperatures, while simultaneously making it cloudy (i.e. less sun). The storm is blowing by quickly, I'm not sure if we should expect it to do much.

Not entirely related: I stuck my foot in a snow-covered melt pond yesterday while walking out on the sea.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #681 on: May 12, 2018, 08:33:29 PM »
I am not able to see the image...

The image is there now, but it's not so important. I was just goofing around.  ;D
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #682 on: May 13, 2018, 03:18:46 AM »
Extent is tracking 2016 without the the Beaufort (or the Kara) opening up - yet. So that doesn't seem like a good place to be.

Beaufort liftoff has now commenced, and drift projection for next few days posted by Neven indicates it will proceed with gusto

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #683 on: May 13, 2018, 04:38:46 AM »
After some wrestling with ffmpeg I've been able to create some movies (rather than gifs) from stills from worldview.

It's been practically cloud free over the Beaufort Sea recently allowing a closer look at the ice, which skows a lot of thin translucent ice between the more solid floes. There's nothing much to inhibit ice movement, and that thin stuff can't last long with constant sun and warm air intrusions.

I've included an animation of a section of the Beaufort Sea( between 71-74 north) from May 6-12, as well as a slightly blown up still from may 11 where the "glue ice" is clearly visible

edit: the first movie wouldn't display, changed the output encoding( to mpeg4 - which again doesn't display - at least in my firefox/ubuntu setup. I'll leave it for now in case others can see it - it plays fine locally)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 05:11:37 AM by subgeometer »

miki

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #684 on: May 13, 2018, 05:26:20 AM »
edit: the first movie wouldn't display, changed the output encoding( to mpeg4 - which again doesn't display - at least in my firefox/ubuntu setup. I'll leave it for now in case others can see it - it plays fine locally)

Thanks. I was able to download it. Really clear.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #685 on: May 13, 2018, 06:45:37 AM »
Fracturing and liftoff is also happening northeast of Greenland.

I've attached a gif and mp4 of the same images from may 9 to 12- with Kronprins Christian Land(!) at the far north east tip of Greenland at the bootom. This area is forecast to see near or above freezing conditions over the next few days with winds blowing mostly from the south east

technical note:
(the movie is higher res but a smaller file, I left encoding to the software which used libx264 - let's see if it displays. Any links to a discussion on movie output and playback issues would be appreciated)

meddoc

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #686 on: May 13, 2018, 09:18:04 AM »
Not good Signs. Coupled with the forecasted Heat for all the Periphery it's going to set up Things for  Big Melt.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #687 on: May 13, 2018, 10:06:18 AM »
The forecast looks slightly better than it did a few days ago, but far from good (and D6-10 still looks pretty awful). One upside is that there is very little Fram transport.
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Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #688 on: May 13, 2018, 10:13:08 AM »
Sea surface temperature anomalies, May 12th, 2012 vs 2018:
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #689 on: May 13, 2018, 11:48:49 AM »
Thanks Neven.

Looking at that I would have to say there is little sign of a weakening NAD (at surface level). Certainly the west spitzbergen current is strong.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #690 on: May 13, 2018, 02:50:58 PM »
Melting or No Melting? At least the non-news of Paris Agreement melting in Bonn in a small print. China to follow the example set by US President Trump to pull out. More ice to melt, surely?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44074352 (At least UN seems in no hurry.)  :-[

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #691 on: May 13, 2018, 02:53:26 PM »
Windy ECMWF WAM wave forecast for may17.
I'm not sure of the forum's views on WAM but it seems broadly in agreement with winds forecast by ECMWF and GFS.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #692 on: May 13, 2018, 03:00:46 PM »
Windy ECMWF WAM wave forecast for may17.
I'm not sure of the forum's views on WAM but it seems broadly in agreement with winds forecast by ECMWF and GFS.
Seems to match pretty well where the GFS forecast for May 17 (from cc-reanalyzer) seems to say the warmth will be (first image attached).

Once again GFs also says a major warming event 9 days out (second image). I suppose, like the Farmer's Alamanac, they have to be right sometime?
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #693 on: May 13, 2018, 03:05:30 PM »
There pretty much a consensus of models. The GFS and CFSv2 models run hot in the Arctic, but this time they are not out there by themselves.

meddoc

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #694 on: May 13, 2018, 04:42:33 PM »
Melting or No Melting? At least the non-news of Paris Agreement melting in Bonn in a small print. China to follow the example set by US President Trump to pull out. More ice to melt, surely?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44074352 (At least UN seems in no hurry.)  :-[

UN is always lagging behind by at least 100 Years, when it comes to Global Action.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #695 on: May 13, 2018, 05:19:48 PM »
Melting or No Melting? At least the non-news of Paris Agreement melting in Bonn in a small print. China to follow the example set by US President Trump to pull out. More ice to melt, surely?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44074352 (At least UN seems in no hurry.)  :-[

UN is always lagging behind by at least 100 Years, when it comes to Global Action.

The 2 largest economies on the planet playing a game of chicken.

The sad truth is that all of us, rich and poor alike, are going to end up like this...

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #696 on: May 13, 2018, 05:43:49 PM »
Melting or No Melting? At least the non-news of Paris Agreement melting in Bonn in a small print. China to follow the example set by US President Trump to pull out. More ice to melt, surely?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44074352 (At least UN seems in no hurry.)  :-[

UN is always lagging behind by at least 100 Years, when it comes to Global Action.

I'm quite certain that is the point. 

Any thoughts on the accuracy of the 80%ish concentration where CAB and CAA meet? Seems to be persisting in Bremen but not NSIDC, which makes be think inaccurate.
big time oops

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #697 on: May 14, 2018, 10:09:51 AM »
Has anyone got a graph of Sea Ice volume ?
Although sea ice extent following 2016, perhaps the volume is diminished ?

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #698 on: May 14, 2018, 12:21:57 PM »
Has anyone got a graph of Sea Ice volume ?
Although sea ice extent following 2016, perhaps the volume is diminished ?
Check out the PIOMAS thread for a volume graph, it is updated twice every month. PIOMAS is the most reliable measure of arctic sea ice volume. You will notice volume is higher than 2016, giving hope that extent drops will slow down at some point, but that volume distribution is such that some of the extra volume is also at extra risk.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg153019.html#msg153019

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #699 on: May 14, 2018, 12:43:01 PM »
FREQUENT REMINDER: as one of the more popular threads, it's especially important to stay on-topic here. PLEASE discuss only the 2018 melting season here; comments on other topics belong elsewhere.

Thanks!