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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #800 on: May 25, 2018, 10:43:45 AM »
An area of ice south of the New Siberian Islands today showing different characteristics, darker red on terra/modis bands 3,6,7 (darker blue on 7,2,1). It appears to be persistant though previous days are too cloudy to be sure.
Is it thinner, thicker, wetter, saltier?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #801 on: May 25, 2018, 03:40:43 PM »
Uniquorn, that color of blue on the false color is what it looks like when all the snow has melted off the ice and there's some meltwater or ponding on the surface of the ice. That's how I see it.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #802 on: May 25, 2018, 05:55:27 PM »
Thank you FishOutofWater.

A couple of days of above zero temperatures are forecast for some of the Kara Sea. Clearer weather today allows a look at that area with worldview viirs brightness temperature band 15.

images are enhanced a little using imagej unsharp mask 1,0.6

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #803 on: May 25, 2018, 06:52:05 PM »
Thank you FishOutofWater.

A couple of days of above zero temperatures are forecast for some of the Kara Sea. Clearer weather today allows a look at that area with worldview viirs brightness temperature band 15.

images are enhanced a little using imagej unsharp mask 1,0.6

Ice looks fairly healthy there and it is a little slow out of the gate.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #804 on: May 25, 2018, 08:29:58 PM »
Ice looks fairly healthy there and it is a little slow out of the gate.

The Chukchi and CAB are the ones to watch for now. The Kara will more or less melt out entirely. It seems the Pacific side will have most of the interesting melt this year.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #805 on: May 25, 2018, 09:19:42 PM »
The Chukchi and CAB are the ones to watch for now. The Kara will more or less melt out entirely. It seems the Pacific side will have most of the interesting melt this year.
Given that I at the moment only believe GFS for 3-4 days ahead (if at all), the warmth seems to be coming from Central Siberia and heading all the way across to the Canadian Archipelago.
And maybe the Hudson will start to evaporate as will the snow in NE Canada ?

But the rest of the season? In the lap of the Gods.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #806 on: May 25, 2018, 10:51:30 PM »
Meanwhile, temperature North of 80 is not so hot.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #807 on: May 26, 2018, 12:36:32 AM »
Can someone please remind we why we keep copying over that stupid 80ºN line graph? Look at Zack's treatment below -- is 80ºN giving us the best sense of May temperatures over the Arctic? All it does is lower our group's credibility, already getting buried under ever-increasing off-topic negativity rants, driving Arctic Sea Ice traffic off to other sites.

Quote
Well above average temperatures over the #Arctic Ocean basin so far this month. "Colder" conditions over the surrounding region, particularly from the Hudson Bay to southern Greenland.
Quote
Warmth continues this spring on Svalbard... 5.5°C above average over the last 30 days at Longyearbyen (~78°N latitude). Sea ice in the region is a record low again.

Technical note: We are looking for grayscale intensity 2D maps so we can graphically multiply images to combine different effects into a resultant graphic, as only uncommonly do we have gridded netCDF files. The Arctic Ocean is huge and heterogenous. The melt season cannot be understood treating it as a single point.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2018, 01:03:41 AM by A-Team »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #808 on: May 26, 2018, 03:06:34 AM »
Can someone please remind we why we keep copying over that stupid 80ºN line graph? Look at Zack's treatment below

Because that picture is too hard to understand.  the DMI 80N is clear and simple and easy to follow year to year.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #809 on: May 26, 2018, 05:05:40 AM »
And the North Pole is part of the planet and climate. Nobody is telling that it's only about that. Feel free to add quality as much as you want.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #810 on: May 26, 2018, 05:18:09 AM »
Certainly the graph is simplistic and the anomaly image provides far more info.

Not sure what the message of the last image is though.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #811 on: May 26, 2018, 09:25:45 AM »
Thanks for all you do, A-Team. (and the last image made me laugh - and I also agree)

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #812 on: May 26, 2018, 09:55:15 AM »
The last image shows that all those off-topic discussions aren't held here, in this thread, or in the comment section of the ASIB. That was the whole idea of setting this forum up.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #813 on: May 26, 2018, 11:13:13 AM »
Can someone please remind we why we keep copying over that stupid 80ºN line graph? -- is 80ºN giving us the best sense of May temperatures over the Arctic?

I never expected to be told off for posting data. I don't expect the DMI will enjoy being told that the work they produce is stupid.

I posted it to contrast it the warmth flooding in from Central Siberia over much of the Arctic shown in the previous post with the temperatures north of 80.

So no, temperatures north of 80 obviously do not give a complete picture of the temperature, cloud cover, precipitation etc etc of the Arctic. But they are an element of that complete picture.

Off for a sulk and a whimper.
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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #814 on: May 26, 2018, 12:34:08 PM »
What A-Team means is that the proportion of posts in the forum having zero or near-zero relevance to arctic sea ice or to climate change in general has been rising rapidly, diluting the forum's contents and sharply increasing the level of animosity. When I first stumbled on this forum a few years back the amount of such garbage was negligent, and working down the unread topics list was a very strong introduction and educational experience. It took me months of lurking to dare post something, due to the high level of science-oriented discussions. Nowadays the unread topics list is mostly a heap of threads where the same tired posters incessantly bash each other over frivolities. Certainly this lowers the attractiveness of the forum for new and current science-oriented users, who may wander off to other sites or quit altogether, while rant-oriented users are attracted and proliferate.

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #815 on: May 26, 2018, 01:06:41 PM »
Just wanted to say that I highly appreciate both A-Team's and gerontocrat posts. Sometimes you see something interesting and just post short comment, sometimes you prepare for a long time and post bit more informative posts - this is the way it should be.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #816 on: May 26, 2018, 05:41:07 PM »
In defense of gerontocrat:  I appreciate the focused, on-topic posts by both gerontocrat and A-team, and so many others here.   As gerontocrat pointed out, the 80 degrees N graph is data.  It is not poorly-founded speculation, or off-topic meandering, or trolling. 

The preconditioning of the ice in the CAB is surely of central interest with respect to what the situation will be like in September.  In my view the current and past variations in air temperatures summarized in the 80 degrees N graph give some useful information regarding that.  Looking back 10 years from now, who knows what we will find were the critical indicators for the health of the Arctic ice?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #817 on: May 26, 2018, 07:08:30 PM »
I occasionally post on these threads and it is usually just graphs with very personal surface observations. I would likely post DMI 80 but not now. I do post a lot in the consequences and policy sections and don't consider them off topic, just different topic. It is great to have them so these threads are focused on what matters.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #818 on: May 26, 2018, 08:42:37 PM »
There's a negative correlation between the intensity of the Atlantic hurricane season and transport of heat from the tropics towards the pole on the Atlantic side. Thus, heat built up in the tropical Atlantic at an extremely high rate last July when the Arctic had cold weather.

This May, strong trade winds and intense storms in the Labrador sea, Greenland tip region have transported heat northwards at a far greater rate than normal. There is more heat available for melting ice and less for supporting intense hurricanes.

The weather patterns are subject to change this time of year so July could be very different from May, but I am very concerned about the rapid heating of the ocean this May in the Barents sea and far north Atlantic. It's great that the overturning circulation looks so strong in the Labrador sea, but it's draining cold fresh water that originated in the Arctic ocean and it's replacing it with warm salty water from both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. There's going to be greater than normal Arctic ice melting from below this summer because of this oceanographic situation.

We got lucky last summer when July turned cold. I'm doubtful our luck will hold out another summer, but the weather constantly surprises me.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #819 on: May 26, 2018, 09:29:16 PM »
That anomaly east of the US. That  only counts for the top inch of the sea ,right ? Is it there every year ?

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #820 on: May 26, 2018, 09:58:32 PM »
Nowadays the unread topics list is mostly a heap of threads where the same tired posters incessantly bash each other over frivolities. Certainly this lowers the attractiveness of the forum for new and current science-oriented users, who may wander off to other sites or quit altogether, while rant-oriented users are attracted and proliferate.

I'm going to try and see if I can keep the 'Recent Posts' list exclusive for Arctic-related topics. I've tried this before, but couldn't find anything. I'll make more of an effort this time.

And otherwise, it might be best to get rid of the 'Recent Posts' list altogether, and I would recommend everyone to click the 'notify' button for the threads they're interested in (that's how I do it, I don't even watch the 'Recent Posts' list).

To be continued...

And sorry for the off-topic, but it is important.


Edit: Found something, will try to implement tomorrow, no time now.

« Last Edit: May 26, 2018, 10:09:42 PM by Neven »
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #821 on: May 26, 2018, 10:35:10 PM »
That anomaly east of the US. That  only counts for the top inch of the sea ,right ? Is it there every year ?
That's surface temperatures. But you could expect over 100m of a surface mixed zone to be similar. And the hottest water can be flowing in below that as its more saline and denser. Nullschool say its reaching over sixteen degrees where its popping its head up for a breath of air near Svalbard.
No that warm blob is not what we are used to seeing. The cold fresh  melt being swept across to the east Atlantic and flooding across the Tropics is new too. Same thing happened in the southern hemisphere six months ago. The atmospheric circulation systems have mutated into a vigorous direct tropics to polar and back heat exchange, the oceanic gyres have sped up. And a lot of the hot salty water is melting polar ice, becoming fresher and lighter, and returning to the tropics on the surface. Under turning rather than overturning. AMOC gone AMUC.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #822 on: May 26, 2018, 11:16:50 PM »
So it's the result of a flow. What is strange about it, the water north and south of it is colder than normal. That's why i could not really give it a cause. It's already there for several months at the same place.

Steven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #823 on: May 26, 2018, 11:22:56 PM »
I'm going to try and see if I can keep the 'Recent Posts' list exclusive for Arctic-related topics. I've tried this before, but couldn't find anything. I'll make more of an effort this time.

It is already possibly at this moment to get the "recent comments" list for a specific board on the forum.  For example, this link:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=recent&board=3

shows the recent comments for the "arctic sea ice" board only.  I use it frequently.  Moreover, the parameter value at the end of the url can be changed for the other boards too, for example:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=recent&board=1

shows the recent comments for the "Consequences" board.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #824 on: May 26, 2018, 11:57:29 PM »
No that warm blob is not what we are used to seeing. The cold fresh  melt being swept across to the east Atlantic and flooding across the Tropics is new too. Same thing happened in the southern hemisphere six months ago. The atmospheric circulation systems have mutated into a vigorous direct tropics to polar and back heat exchange, the oceanic gyres have sped up. And a lot of the hot salty water is melting polar ice, becoming fresher and lighter, and returning to the tropics on the surface. Under turning rather than overturning. AMOC gone AMUC.

The cold spot in the North Atlantic has been there for a couple of years, and the Maine Lobsters have been migrating to Newfoundland for a while now, but the heat bloom in the Sargasso Sea is pretty new.

It could be a sign that the AMOC has stalled, but I think it is something else.  We will see if the Atlantic completely eats the Arctic ice on its side later this year.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #825 on: May 27, 2018, 12:40:45 AM »
That anomaly east of the US. That  only counts for the top inch of the sea ,right ? Is it there every year ?

No that warm blob is not what we are used to seeing. The cold fresh  melt being swept across to the east Atlantic and flooding across the Tropics is new too. Same thing happened in the southern hemisphere six months ago. The atmospheric circulation systems have mutated into a vigorous direct tropics to polar and back heat exchange, the oceanic gyres have sped up. And a lot of the hot salty water is melting polar ice, becoming fresher and lighter, and returning to the tropics on the surface. Under turning rather than overturning. AMOC gone AMUC.
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream, which is part of the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2018, 04:16:48 AM by Pagophilus »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #826 on: May 27, 2018, 01:23:38 AM »
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (aka the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.

The claim is there but so far the evidence has been pretty weak, and unless you can relate that to what is going on this Summer the discussion ought to continue elsewhere.  There is a warm pool in the Atlantic, but it will be months at least before that means anything.

What we know so far about the Atlantic as it relates to the Arctic this Summer is the continuing hot spots in the North...at least that is all I really know about this season.


magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #827 on: May 27, 2018, 01:59:09 AM »
Nowadays the unread topics list is mostly a heap of threads where the same tired posters incessantly bash each other over frivolities. Certainly this lowers the attractiveness of the forum for new and current science-oriented users, who may wander off to other sites or quit altogether, while rant-oriented users are attracted and proliferate.

I'm going to try and see if I can keep the 'Recent Posts' list exclusive for Arctic-related topics. I've tried this before, but couldn't find anything. I'll make more of an effort this time.

And otherwise, it might be best to get rid of the 'Recent Posts' list altogether, and I would recommend everyone to click the 'notify' button for the threads they're interested in (that's how I do it, I don't even watch the 'Recent Posts' list).

To be continued...

And sorry for the off-topic, but it is important.


Edit: Found something, will try to implement tomorrow, no time now.

while as always things remain your choice i find every topic and everything people share in this forum interesting enough to read. does not necessarily mean that everything is good and agreed upon of course but before building an opinion of his own one should read.

for this reason i love the last read list because i simply open each one in a new tab and read or close the window if i have no time or no interest at the moment.

what's so difficult to choose and discard posts that are not for one person while another is interested and glad to be able to sift through them within half a minute or so?

one of the bigger while not recognized problems of our times is that everything has to be (is) specialised and fractured into a multitude of fields of expertise while in fact we should go back to see the whole picture more than detached details.

often solutions are making things worse because they are to narrow minded, focused on one or few fields of expertise while there is a complex system to deal with where everything is on whole.

a wholistic approach is what i'm talking about and the fact that many so called experts feel offended when they have to deal with information and discussions injected from the side is only making things worse.

another example how within a small group of people where the basic goal is the same or very similar, participants discredit each other.

BTW who complains about all this is off-topic him/herself and i totally disagree that an open discussion of any topic can be damaging itself.

if someone does not like some content he can simply go to the next post or skip for the moment.

we should pick up folks where they are, following a lonely eluded expert path will not lead to any mass-movement which is what we need to change the thinking pattern and behaviour of a multi-billion population.

i know the counter arguments to this which is why i said, your forum, your choice but i like it as it is.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #828 on: May 27, 2018, 08:41:16 AM »
Quote
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream, which is part of the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.
Sure Pagophilus, there may have been some Gulfstream slowing at the time of publication of that paper. But now. Well we just ain't in Kansas anymore. :'(
The cyclone cannon that has fired up off new York is spitting a new one towards the south east coast of Greenland every couple of days. These have been sucking all the moisture and heat out of the tropical Atlantic and sweeping the warm tropical water along for the ride. Over the past couple of weeks they have been getting their tops ripped of by upper level winds about between Iceland and Greenland, though often reforming near Svalbard. Its striking how there is a strong river of air straight lining from the Western tropical Atlantic to nth of Finland at all tropospheric altitudes more often than not recently.
The anti clockwise rotation of these cyclones has also been persistently sucking northerlies down the west coast of Greenland. Some pics from this week:
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #829 on: May 27, 2018, 09:04:43 AM »
As for the AMOC, and bottom water production. That might be seriously compromised. For example the clockwise warm current around Greenland seems to, at least in part , east of Baffin island be getting turned back south. Possibly freshened and lightened from melting the base of Greenland glaciers and getting entrained in the south, then south east surface melt freshened low ssta flow  that's now crossing the Atlantic. Heat transport into the CAB certainly seems to have gone up a gear though with peak surface temps off Svalbard jumping nearly 2 degree s in two days.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #830 on: May 27, 2018, 11:16:51 AM »
Thanks Hyperion for interesting observations on the AMOC and current currents.
Having 16C SST just off Svalbard in May is outright scary.

OT: This SST hot spot is like a canary in a coal mine, although here the canary is already dead in the water, and the mine is already closed.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/10/end-comes-100-years-norwegian-coal-mining-svalbard

romett1

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #831 on: May 27, 2018, 12:11:25 PM »
5-day difference (May 26 vs May 21). Laptev, Baffin, Beaufort and Barents usual suspects. Kara and ESS are so far holding on. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #832 on: May 27, 2018, 12:51:08 PM »
Thank you, Hyperion, for your reply and the useful information regarding the atmospheric weather systems moving energy from the Middle Atlantic towards the general area of Svalbard.  To clarify, my comments have all been with reference to ocean surface currents, which generally travel at least an order of magnitude slower than atmospheric storm systems, but which are important because they transport enormous amounts of energy.
 
Anomaly maps often require nuanced interpretation, but the significant gap in positive anomalies between the huge warm patch in the Middle Atlantic and the west coast of Britain and Ireland (the last image in your second post, showing Atlantic SSTA) at least raises the question as to the extent that the surface currents of the Atlantic ocean gyre are bringing extra warm water to the Svalbard region.  One would expect a continuous strong positive anomaly between the two areas if a lot of extra heat were being transferred thus.  That said, this SSTA map is just one small slice of data.
   
As to the Nature paper on the slowing of the Atlantic Ocean's circulation being out of date (it was published in April 2018), if there are more recently published studies showing that Atlantic circulation has speeded up recently, or indeed whether any oceanic gyre has speeded up recently, I would be most interested to read them.  Such information could be of immense significance for the Arctic ice sheet.
     
Quote
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream, which is part of the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.
Sure Pagophilus, there may have been some Gulfstream slowing at the time of publication of that paper. But now. Well we just ain't in Kansas anymore. :'(
The cyclone cannon that has fired up off new York is spitting a new one towards the south east coast of Greenland every couple of days. These have been sucking all the moisture and heat out of the tropical Atlantic and sweeping the warm tropical water along for the ride. Over the past couple of weeks they have been getting their tops ripped of by upper level winds about between Iceland and Greenland, though often reforming near Svalbard. Its striking how there is a strong river of air straight lining from the Western tropical Atlantic to nth of Finland at all tropospheric altitudes more often than not recently.
The anti clockwise rotation of these cyclones has also been persistently sucking northerlies down the west coast of Greenland. Some pics from this week:
« Last Edit: May 27, 2018, 12:57:55 PM by Pagophilus »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #833 on: May 27, 2018, 02:35:23 PM »
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (aka the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.

The claim is there but so far the evidence has been pretty weak, and unless you can relate that to what is going on this Summer the discussion ought to continue elsewhere.  There is a warm pool in the Atlantic, but it will be months at least before that means anything.

What we know so far about the Atlantic as it relates to the Arctic this Summer is the continuing hot spots in the North...at least that is all I really know about this season.

I agree with this. There is a warm pool in the Atlantic and a cold pool south of Greenland. The discussion on this thread about these two items should be its influence on weather patterns and melt for this season. For example, will such a set up result in more powerful storms? Let's watch.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #834 on: May 27, 2018, 02:38:04 PM »
Quote
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream, which is part of the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.
Sure Pagophilus, there may have been some Gulfstream slowing at the time of publication of that paper. But now. Well we just ain't in Kansas anymore. :'(
The cyclone cannon that has fired up off new York is spitting a new one towards the south east coast of Greenland every couple of days. These have been sucking all the moisture and heat out of the tropical Atlantic and sweeping the warm tropical water along for the ride. Over the past couple of weeks they have been getting their tops ripped of by upper level winds about between Iceland and Greenland, though often reforming near Svalbard. Its striking how there is a strong river of air straight lining from the Western tropical Atlantic to nth of Finland at all tropospheric altitudes more often than not recently.
The anti clockwise rotation of these cyclones has also been persistently sucking northerlies down the west coast of Greenland. Some pics from this week:

Neat. This is exactly how the discussion about the warm pool should occur on the melting season thread.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #835 on: May 27, 2018, 02:41:45 PM »
Thanks Hyperion for interesting observations on the AMOC and current currents.
Having 16C SST just off Svalbard in May is outright scary.

OT: This SST hot spot is like a canary in a coal mine, although here the canary is already dead in the water, and the mine is already closed.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/10/end-comes-100-years-norwegian-coal-mining-svalbard

Niall Dollard started an interesting thread about the persistent null school SST hotspots near Svalbard here   
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg133898.html#msg133898

A comparison with ecmwf is probably a good idea.
edit:posted image from windy
« Last Edit: May 27, 2018, 03:09:36 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #836 on: May 27, 2018, 04:06:57 PM »
Both ECMWF and GFS forecasting more warm winds for the Chukchi Sea from Tuesday onwards.
Image shows wed may30 forecast

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #837 on: May 27, 2018, 04:49:43 PM »
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   t raises the question as to the extent that the surface currents of the Atlantic ocean gyre are bringing extra warm water to the Svalbard region.  One would expect a continuous strong positive anomaly between the two areas if a lot of extra heat were being transferred thus.   
Not really pagz. The warmest water is saltier and denser. The colder water flowing over the top insulates it preventing it radiating heat into space and being tubulated by wind and wave and losing heat by evaporation. Also the cold surge from the northwest and the warm surge from the Southwest are kind of like putting an open tube of toothpaste under a bladder of water, and then stepping left and right foot either side. Really salty and hot water could get a good spurt on from this. Making it past the faroes rise when it may have turned back south into the Atlantic. Re published.I ment  when did the data series end? We are seeing a hysteresis bifurcation. This is fast paced action here. Dorothy, meet Mr tornado.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #838 on: May 27, 2018, 09:47:04 PM »
The next two weeks should resolve almost all of the residual/ongoing snowfall anomalies across High Arctic-adjacent land bodies. It may not take that long for prolific amounts of heat to begin dumping into the Ocean itself, by way of the continents.

This is important, IMO, because, so far in 2018, I believe the vast majority of melt has been derived from oceanic anomalies. As the continents come into play, perhaps June takes a turn for the catastrophic, in terms of #s?


Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #839 on: May 27, 2018, 10:04:24 PM »
Here comes another, just like t' othas.
This happened in the south Pacific six months ago. Warm blob sucked out of the tropics filled the south Tasman with five degree anomalies. Even had a tropical cyclone spawn at 45 degrees sth off the coast of New Zealands sth island. Blob sat there for three months before being blown across sth of Tahiti, where its still feeding troppies where they ain't been before. Same phenomenon of cold water pushed towards the equator in the east and flooding westward across the equator also.
Shipping between Europe and Nth America will need to watch out for icebergs shortly.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2018, 10:12:31 PM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #840 on: May 27, 2018, 10:40:14 PM »
Shipping between Europe and Nth America will need to watch out for icebergs shortly.

Please explain.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #841 on: May 27, 2018, 10:47:12 PM »
Shipping between Europe and Nth America will need to watch out for icebergs shortly.

Please explain.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #842 on: May 27, 2018, 10:52:53 PM »
Eeep!  Now I need a translation.  Do they mean actual glacial bergs, or just slabs of sea ice?

ghoti

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #843 on: May 27, 2018, 10:57:20 PM »
Meanwhile the media are reporting a lack of icebergs near Newfoundland:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/slow-start-to-iceberg-season-1.4679823

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #844 on: May 27, 2018, 10:59:23 PM »
Meanwhile the media are reporting a lack of icebergs near Newfoundland:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/slow-start-to-iceberg-season-1.4679823
Wonder if the season is delayed but not denied? Newfoundland may be lacking in bergs but snowfall is another story, apparently...

https://globalnews.ca/news/4228458/newfoundland-may-24-snowstorm-photos/

And re: Dharma, I believe the map references glacial bergs, not sea ice.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #845 on: May 28, 2018, 12:38:10 AM »
The AMOC is not simple and the reports on it can be quite confusing because there are different measures of AMOC activity. Moreover, one part of the AMOC can be more active than another part.

There are peer reviewed reports of a general long-term slow down of the AMOC. I take no issue with those reports. The AMOC was relatively quite active between 1988 and 1995 when the Arctic oscillation was strongly positive. The far north Atlantic and the Arctic was very stormy in that period and cold fresh water in the Beaufort gyre was flushed and replaced with warm Atlantic water. After 1995 there was a general slow down in the AMOC as high pressure tended to dominate over the Arctic ocean. There was a severe slow down in the AMOC in 2010. It lead to a build up of tropical Atlantic heat, a bad hurricane season and a slowing of the Gulf Stream that caused flooding at Norfolk Va and other sea level sensitive areas on the U.S. east coast. After that, by some measures, the AMOC picked up.

My statements about the AMOC this late winter and spring are based on Mercator ocean profiles, the persistent Greenland vortex at 500mb and the persistent storms that the vortex has been producing. What many readers don't seem to appreciate is that the warm SST pattern, off of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. , is a feature that is quite deep. It's not just warm surface waters. The north wall of the Gulf stream goes down over 1000m.




Likewise, the cold anomaly in the subpolar gyre reflects the effects of continued storms that have maintained deep water formation in the Labrador sea into late spring.





The cooling of the tropical Atlantic over the past month is the result of stronger than normal trade winds that moved tropical heat into the subtropics and temperate regions.



To put it simply, the weather patterns this spring are normal patterns that have been intensified by an excess of heat in the northern hemisphere's oceans. The intensification of northward heat transport by the atmosphere is reflected downwards into the ocean. The end result is that the European - Atlantic side of the Arctic is heating up very rapidly this spring. I won't repeat showing the Levitus et all heat content map here, but it shows anomalous heat entering the Arctic from the Atlantic - not good for sea ice.


Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #846 on: May 28, 2018, 12:56:50 AM »
Shipping between Europe and Nth America will need to watch out for icebergs shortly.

Please explain.

Well usually when Greenland glaciers calve they come down the coast on the Newfoundland current. Last year lots came past Newfoundland. And blobs of negative ssta water made it as far as Florida just off the coast. If the current weather patterns continue producing the surface currents we are seeing currently then the Newfoundland current may need to be renamed the Azores or even the Gibraltar current. Any bergs produced by calving pulses we will no doubt see in the next few months are likely to sweep south west straight across the major shipping routes. I hope the relevant services are not caught on the hop over this. If they are only monitoring 200 nautical mile coastal boundaries where they're used to seeing them, problems could ensue.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #848 on: May 28, 2018, 05:09:24 PM »
The Bering sea is about done accumulating albedo anomaly, SSTAs seem to be following suit.
The Bering Sea started with very low ice area, which melted out quickly.
The earlier the melt, the higher the anomaly.
With all the sea ice gone,( except <4k km2), the anomaly cannot increase.

A good illustration of how early melting is the key to potential warming albedo, and why the 2016 anomaly was so much higher than 2012 even though the 2012 extent anomaly ended up 800,000+ km2 lower than 2016.

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #849 on: May 28, 2018, 05:22:16 PM »
And while this Grumpy Old Man in The Gallery is here.

I've given up looking more than 2-4 days in advance.

The first image is cci-renalyzer showing a lot of warmth in the Arctic by May 31, even in Hudson and Baffin Bays, but excluding Kara and Laptev.

The second 2 images show why I prefer :-
 https://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=cities.forecast.dots&type=wind.com  for wind and cloud cover.

My old eyes find these images so much easier to look at than the clever stuff elsewhere.

And the conclusion - melt is going to accelerate over the next few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)