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A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1300 on: June 14, 2018, 06:13:51 PM »
Quote
UH SMOS brightness temperatures are better this time of year than UB 'thinness'
The former are provided as daily 12 MB netCDF files suitable for Panoply rendering; the June 12th's are compared below (land mask added to brightness). Since the boundaries and patterns are very similar, the interpretations could be brought into alignment, note thinness has a 0.5m cutoff.

There doesn't seem to be a UB Geo2D netCDF archive for thinness that would allow the same color scheme to be used. Animating both from mid-March on would allow us to see if passing weather artifacts are treated differently.
Quote
The Microwave Imagine Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) aboard the SMOS satellite measures the Earth's surface brightness temperature at L-Band at a frequency of 1.4 GHz. These measurements are full polarimetric and are carried out at nadir incidence angles of between 0 and 65°. Both polar hemispheres are covered completely every day.

Here we offer mean daily brightness temperature intensities gridded onto a polar-stereographic grid with 12.5 km grid resolution. In order to do so, first all brightness temperature (TB) measurements carried out during one day at both polarizations (horizontal and vertical, h and v) and nadir incidence angles of between 0 and 40° are collected on the special SMOS ISEA grid (The special viewing geometry of SMOS required a special native grid.). TBh and TBv have to acquired within 2.5 s to form a data pair to be used. For each SMOS ISEA grid cell all TB values are averaged over the given incidence angle range to compute the brightness temperature intensity (TBh + TBv)/2. Subsequently, the data are interpolated onto the mentioned polar-stereographic grid.

https://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/thredds/catalog/ftpthredds/smos_tb/v3/2018/06/catalog.html?dataset=ftpthreddsscan/smos_tb/v3/2018/06/SMOS_TB_north_20180612.nc

R Saldo at DMI processes the massive Sentinel-1AB files into near-daily whole-Arctic mosaics and occasional time lapse movies. The one below shows Jan 1st to May 9th of this year and features the rare retrograde motion of ice previously exported out the Fram. That ice has since been squashed along North Greenland but not fully re-exported as of June 13th. The same dates are shown at the vastly worse resolution of Ascat.

Fram export has resumed recently but is unremarkable, as is ice movement overall this spring.

http://www.seaice.dk/
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 02:07:23 AM by A-Team »

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1301 on: June 14, 2018, 06:47:58 PM »
Quote
.      COYOTEYOGI:
 I have a basic question for Hyperion and others. How and when will we know IF the gulf stream has connected with the warm water coming into the Chukchi from the Pacific? Are there buoys taking this measurement? Ships? it seems like it would be beyond the capacity of satellites if it happens under the ice.
It does strike me that this would be a game changing event for the durability of the ice cap. 

If there are then they are being kept secret. It may be worth checking argo buoys there was one north of Svalbard about a month ago, might have got out a report two. And itp, 100, 101, 108 are in the Beaufort. There may be military sub's on the ESAS. But they sure ain't sharing.
When there's ice soup the SST is a proxy for salinity. So that might be our best bet. If there's -1.8 temperature along the ESAS then we know the fresh water lid is busted. Technically the Atlantic and Pacific water underlies the whole basin from 50 m down. Its when they expel the halocline to near surface its a problem. Because then the heat from below can freely mix to surface. So this is troubling:
« Last Edit: June 14, 2018, 07:03:23 PM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1302 on: June 14, 2018, 07:16:01 PM »
If there are then they are being kept secret.

Not really. There's a few ice mass balance buoys out there, but the data on their web site hasn't been updated since December.

Then there's also these:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/

and these:

http://www.whoi.edu/website/itp/overview
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1303 on: June 14, 2018, 09:13:12 PM »
The latest operational run from ECMWF hints, IMO a potentially disturbing pattern change emerging after the solstice. If the trend continues in the upcoming runs and if it would hold on for a while into July we may see a potentially huge damage to the sea ice later in the season. While it at this moment is speculative, a pattern change with more high pressure dominated weather can surely make up for the lack of melting momentum over the North American side. Remember that the sea ice there is thinner than normal.

For now, the model run for the next 8 days seems to be good or very good for ice retention over the North American side.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1304 on: June 14, 2018, 09:35:12 PM »
Atlantic and Pacific waters enter the Arctic ocean at different levels. Because the Atlantic water is saline it sinks below the fresh waters that flow into the Arctic from Siberian rivers as it flows into the European side of the Arctic along the Siberian shelf.

Pacific water enters through the very shallow Bering strait and has little to no heat to lose, so cooling doesn't densify it. Pacific water is above the Atlantic water layer in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.


In my previous discussion of increased inflows of Atlantic water into the Arctic I was talking about effects heat that could affect the Arctic next year or the year after, not just this summer. Insolation is the key factor during the summer melt season, but bottom melting is enhanced by increased transport of Atlantic water into the Arctic. "Atlantification" may also be a factor in the increasingly warm winters over the Arctic ocean that are reducing ice formation in the cold months.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 04:08:51 AM by FishOutofWater »

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1305 on: June 14, 2018, 10:40:00 PM »
I have a basic question for Hyperion and others. How and when will we know IF the gulf stream has connected with the warm water coming into the Chukchi from the Pacific?
What

It's the other side of the freaking planet

What

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1306 on: June 15, 2018, 12:03:56 AM »
More on my lonely obsession with that tongue of dispersing sea ice south of Franz Josef Land. <snippage>...since this area has been largely covered with clouds over the past two or three weeks, the sheer magnitude of what is happening has been hidden from view. <snippage>
Polarview can be handy when it's cloudy https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
FJL jun13

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1307 on: June 15, 2018, 12:27:29 AM »
A view of the dirty ice edge in the chukchi. I wasn't sure how thick it was, but a couple of clear days and a change of wind gives some indication of ice quality.
Brightness Temperature shows the melting ice fingers cooling the surrounding water, the fractures closing and the incoming clouds (from right)
Thresholds shown in degrees K (light blue~-0C yellow~5C)

Worldview terra/modis true color and brightness temperature(band15,day) jun12-13

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1308 on: June 15, 2018, 12:32:25 AM »

A lot of attention on Russian side of arctic but I am for one am watching the CAB for a route to sail through (and cheering for the melt).

Looks like BBQ weather has has finally arrived on the northern coast. Yes!

As a new commenter on this forum, I would suggest you tone down the glee or attach an emoticon that would indicate you are joking.

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1309 on: June 15, 2018, 03:33:48 AM »

A lot of attention on Russian side of arctic but I am for one am watching the CAB for a route to sail through (and cheering for the melt).

Looks like BBQ weather has has finally arrived on the northern coast. Yes!

As a new commenter on this forum, I would suggest you tone down the glee or attach an emoticon that would indicate you are joking.

I too cannot understand the gleefulness in which some posters discuss catastrophes.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1310 on: June 15, 2018, 03:40:53 AM »
Worldview today shows darkening from meltponds and loss of snow across the whole Eurasian side, as well as blue in parts of the CAA

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1311 on: June 15, 2018, 08:05:54 AM »
Subgeo: of more interest is that the crack from Laptev is now more or less reaching ESS. If this trend continues, it should not be impossible to see a detaching of the ice pack during the next two months.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1312 on: June 15, 2018, 08:22:12 AM »
I too cannot understand the gleefulness in which some posters discuss catastrophes.

Because it's a spectacle, it's actually exciting, like a sports game. At the same time it's worrying, and scary even. And then there's the link between Arctic Sea Ice loss and the public's response to AGW, which is why some are hoping for records.

Please, don't act all surprised or indignant. There's nothing weird or inappropriate going on. Just focus on the ice and don't get distracted by words like BBQ or torch or whatever.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1313 on: June 15, 2018, 08:29:24 AM »
June 10-14.

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1314 on: June 15, 2018, 08:41:00 AM »
June 10-14.
Shows perfectly the dispersion of ice in the Chukchi, Beaufort, Barents, and Svalbard "CAB", with the ice advancing while losing area and the fronts becoming ragged.
I think this year (like the last few low-max years) had relatively little thin/easy ice entering June, as it had already melted or had never frozen in the first place. So when the big heat and/or export to warm waters comes along, it takes time to work through the thickness before extent numbers are affected.
I am highly interested in the mid-month PIOMAS update which will be published in a couple of days, to see what the model captured of the storm, the unusual Siberian heat and the effects of export. In principle we should have a higher-than-average volume loss.

Meanwhile, impressive Siberian heat update.
Tiksi (Laptev), Pevek (ESS)
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 08:46:38 AM by oren »

mostly_lurking

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1315 on: June 15, 2018, 08:52:15 AM »
. And then there's the link between Arctic Sea Ice loss and the public's response to AGW, which is why some are hoping for records.

It's a bit of a circular logic if that's the reason people glee and hope for ice loss records.

"We need a catastrophe to prove there is a catastrophe!"
 ::)


Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1316 on: June 15, 2018, 09:20:10 AM »
It's a bit of a circular logic if that's the reason people glee and hope for ice loss records.

"We need a catastrophe to prove there is a catastrophe!"
 ::)

Yes, AGW (and being aware of it) sucks.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1317 on: June 15, 2018, 09:31:07 AM »
Meanwhile, impressive Siberian heat update.
Tiksi (Laptev), Pevek (ESS)
Khatanga. Right now Khatanga is the warmest place in Russia (31.7°C).

aperson

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1318 on: June 15, 2018, 09:43:23 AM »
I know it's not sea ice, but would anyone have any idea what the effects of this event on Siberian permafrost would be? While the sea ice melt is a bit impressive, the land anomalies are absurd both in intensity and duration.
computer janitor by trade

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1319 on: June 15, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again. 

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1320 on: June 15, 2018, 10:43:58 AM »
Wasn't there a village in Siberia where the difference between max and min temperatures were over 100 degrees centigrade - from over 40 in summer to -60 in winter.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1321 on: June 15, 2018, 10:54:30 AM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again.
It may be only 6 days to solstice but that is still early summer in Siberia. The +ve temperature anomaly in Central Siberia is high, and the -ve anomaly in European Russia is also high.
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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1322 on: June 15, 2018, 12:26:25 PM »
This is mostly relevant to area and extent data, but I am posting it on the main thread for a wider audience. The charts are provided by Wipneus and track the various metrics of area and extent in the inner arctic basin without the peripheral seas.
Notice the marked June slowdown/reversal in the first image - the extent chart? Now look at the second image, the area chart, where the slowdown barely exists, if at all. A very interesting divergence that can't really go on for much longer.
I think the ice was very compact to begin with, perhaps due to lack of export, and now it's more dispersed and IMHO more vulnerable as well.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1323 on: June 15, 2018, 02:03:00 PM »
...
Yes, AGW (and being aware of it) sucks.
No. Quite the contrary. It's a blessing, i came to realize. Because hopefully, AGW will lead to demise of modern industrial civilization, which in turn means said global industrial complex will not be able to operate long enough to trigger even deadlier disasters of the same "tragedy of commons" kind. Like wiping out enough of biosphere to end up below breathable athmosphere, or raising background levels of dangerous complex chemical pollutants to intolerable levels, etc.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1324 on: June 15, 2018, 02:43:24 PM »
...
Yes, AGW (and being aware of it) sucks.
No. Quite the contrary. It's a blessing, i came to realize. Because hopefully, AGW will lead to demise of modern industrial civilization, which in turn means said global industrial complex will not be able to operate long enough to trigger even deadlier disasters of the same "tragedy of commons" kind. Like wiping out enough of biosphere to end up below breathable athmosphere, or raising background levels of dangerous complex chemical pollutants to intolerable levels, etc.
a
Everyone has the unconscious conviction that ME - I - will be one of the survivors when the faeces hit the fan. Off-topic but what the hell.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1325 on: June 15, 2018, 03:49:49 PM »
I have a basic question for Hyperion and others. How and when will we know IF the gulf stream has connected with the warm water coming into the Chukchi from the Pacific?
What

It's the other side of the freaking planet

What
Err?  :o
Look Peter. Its snaked all along the Russian coast. See Peter how upwelling from offshore winds blowing mobile pack ice out to sea has draw it up the east Siberian shelf into the mixing zone so that it is matching salinity with the Pacific waters in the Chukchi. Appreciate Peter how its thermal energy appears to now be causing a wide swath of thin ice and melt ponding  right across from the laptev to the Chukchi on the basin side of the new Siberian and wrangel  islands.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1326 on: June 15, 2018, 03:59:47 PM »
Wasn't there a village in Siberia where the difference between max and min temperatures were over 100 degrees centigrade - from over 40 in summer to -60 in winter.

You may be referring to Verkhoyansk, which has recorded a highest summer temperature of 37.3C and a lowest winter temperature or -67.8C, for a range of 105C.  When you hear about someone being sent in exile to Siberian, this is where they went.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1327 on: June 15, 2018, 04:16:50 PM »
...
Everyone has the unconscious conviction that ME - I - will be one of the survivors when the faeces hit the fan. Off-topic but what the hell.
Wrong. I have no such conviction. Not really affraid to die, too. What, are you going to live forever? And yes, this is off-topic. But it's the "important off-topic" kind. So, what the hell indeed - this one, i wholeheartedly agree with. :)
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1328 on: June 15, 2018, 04:20:58 PM »
. And then there's the link between Arctic Sea Ice loss and the public's response to AGW, which is why some are hoping for records.

It's a bit of a circular logic if that's the reason people glee and hope for ice loss records.

"We need a catastrophe to prove there is a catastrophe!"
 ::)

Yes. A catastrophe is a proof of a catastrophe. I think even some republicans agree to that.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1329 on: June 15, 2018, 04:30:55 PM »
Wasn't there a village in Siberia where the difference between max and min temperatures were over 100 degrees centigrade - from over 40 in summer to -60 in winter.

You may be referring to Verkhoyansk, which has recorded a highest summer temperature of 37.3C and a lowest winter temperature or -67.8C, for a range of 105C.  When you hear about someone being sent in exile to Siberian, this is where they went.
He may be referring to most places in Siberia, too. When i arrived, say, to Langepas in 1986, very next winter i sometimes walked through as low as -56°C air. Freezes your eyes, no joke. While summer-time, sometimes it got up to ~35°C. However, this all proves nothing, and is in fact off-topic. The graphic presented was about temperature _anomalies_. This means, all the drastic seasonal temp difference was already accounted for; all the wild colors are "on top" of it.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1330 on: June 15, 2018, 05:38:58 PM »
I know it's not sea ice, but would anyone have any idea what the effects of this event on Siberian permafrost would be? While the sea ice melt is a bit impressive, the land anomalies are absurd both in intensity and duration.

You only have to go down a few meters to get to an 'average temperature' for the year, or at least have very little annual variation. It's not much more than 3m depending on the ground material. A few hot days doesn't make that much difference. What makes a difference is above average temperatures throughout the year. Svalbard for instance.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1331 on: June 15, 2018, 06:34:04 PM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again.
Not that hot not this consistently.  It's duration more than amplitude people here are concerned over.
This space for Rent.

josh-j

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1332 on: June 15, 2018, 06:44:36 PM »
He may be referring to most places in Siberia, too. When i arrived, say, to Langepas in 1986, very next winter i sometimes walked through as low as -56°C air. Freezes your eyes, no joke. While summer-time, sometimes it got up to ~35°C. However, this all proves nothing, and is in fact off-topic. The graphic presented was about temperature _anomalies_. This means, all the drastic seasonal temp difference was already accounted for; all the wild colors are "on top" of it.

I dont dispute anything in the general discussion here, but wouldnt the anomaly be relative to the average for the particular time of year - and therefore not on top of whatever fleeting anomalies might be common in the area? (In other words, averaging out various warm and cold times in a location removes the variability and just gives one figure lying somewhere in the middle).

If the answer is more complicated than that I'll take the thought over to the Stupid Questions thread of course.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1333 on: June 15, 2018, 07:21:50 PM »
Houston, we might see some serious problem ahead! The GFS 12z operational run depicts a pattern shift starting by D7 to low pressure over Siberia and a high pressure dome over the rest of the Arctic basin.

Let's see if this is a true shift or just bogus.... And also what is the chief model from EC going to say?

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1334 on: June 15, 2018, 08:18:12 PM »
The first mp4 compares UH SMOS-TB to UB SMOS-thinness, Jaxa-RGB and Ascat roughness for the last month. The first of these may be more useful this time of year, though passing weather in early June can be seen affecting all image sources. (SMOS-TB is 12.5 km resolution 1.4 GHz polarized radar surface passive emissivity intensity [first-stokes vector]; the 'pole hole' obscures the CAB more so than the others.) Some papers subsequent to the 2012 original are provided below.

Display choices have to be made with netCDF series such as SMOS-TB, notably with range. Here it was fixed at 180-280 kelvin even though the data itself ranges over different extremes from day to day. The display shows too much white towards the end; 120-280 would have worked better there to restrict white to ~ open water. However that would compact color resolution in earlier frames.

The second mp4 shows the Siberian and Atlantic side of Ascat losing almost all trackable features from the last nine months whereas the CA and AK sides have retained them and possibly gained some 'transparency' in display of ice fissures. An inverted grayscale (smoothness) is used.

Jaxa remains the gold standard in portal front ends from the casual end-user's perspective. There are a lot of very smoothly implemented features that support a very quick exploration of developments. This code could be ported more comprehensively, ideally integrated with Hamburg's Integrated Climate Data Center which provides for automated bulk downloads of netCDF files necessary for serious data integration. The idea is to know ahead of time whether arduous quantitative pursuit of an idea will work out.

Arctic sea ice signatures: L-band brightness temperature sensitivity comparison using two radiation transfer models
F Richter et al
The Cryosphere 2018 DOI:10.5194/tc-12-921-2018
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/921/2018/tc-12-921-2018.html

Soil Moisture Retrieval Algorithms: The SMOS Case
YH Kerr et al
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01676542/

Comparing Arctic winter sea-ice thickness from SMOS and ORAS5
S Tietsche et al
ECMWF Technical Memoranda 2017
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2017/17275-comparing-arctic-winter-sea-ice-thickness-smos-and-oras5.pdf

A Consistent Combination of Brightness Temperatures from SMOS and SMAP over Polar Oceans for Sea Ice Applications
A Schmitt, L Kaleschke April 2018
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324208869_A_Consistent_Combination_of_Brightness_Temperatures_from_SMOS_and_SMAP_over_Polar_Oceans_for_Sea_Ice_Applications

L Kaleschke et al
Sea ice thickness retrieval from SMOS brightness temperatures during the Arctic freeze-up period
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05501 2012
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL050916 free full
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 08:47:07 PM by A-Team »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1335 on: June 15, 2018, 09:13:15 PM »
Excellent, A-Team. Export into the Fram is low in the videos but Svalbard is eating ice like Pac-man.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1336 on: June 15, 2018, 09:42:14 PM »
Everyone has the unconscious conviction that ME - I - will be one of the survivors when the faeces hit the fan. Off-topic but what the hell.

there is an alternative thinking that could lead to similar attitude and that would be a very low level of self-importance.

each person should to his best after best knowledge and conscience but we should not be afraid but respectful. i'm sure many in this forum understand what i'm trying to say. fear is a bad counselor while respect is mandatory to prosper and last but not least, contentment (happiness) is the higher the more modest we are. be happy with little and enjoy abundance when given to us but without abuse and possessiveness

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1337 on: June 15, 2018, 09:46:58 PM »
Post from a new member that I had to release:

Hello all, this thread has been linked to other forums around the web, can someone here give a layman's explanation of what has been happening over the last 10-15 days? 
Sure doesn't sound good, I am just not up to speed with a lot of these terms.  Is it looking like an ice free Arctic this year?

Much smaller ice-pack bunching up? Yes.
Zero ice-pack anywhere, and just some icebergs distantly floating around? No chance.

Ice-Free in this forum is typically understood to mean < 1 million km^2 of sea ice extent to avoid this sort of semantic debate.

In answer to Neven's post, and the new guy's question, as well as other posts here saying there is  a chance of "ice-free" this year. Yes, I agree with Archimid,  and "aperson"?:o, others -  to a new person, using the phrase "ice-free", I should have stated that "blue-ocean event" and "ice-free" mean "not a huge lot of ice left"...ie. <15% area (but presumably not "< 15% extent", since extent tends to mean anything above 15% cover already, does it not?). "ice-free" is certainly a term worth dropping altogether. When I talk about "blue-ocean" I mean less than 15% area, but really, if it is JUST the Arctic Ocean itself we are talking about (not CAA etc.), then I would say <10% area, makes more sense as a complete blow out and disaster. But <15 or <10 %, is all bad.

I don't think we'll be anywhere near a "blue-ocean" event (<15% area or extent) in this 2018 Melting Season, as some are saying is possible, but for fun, here is a visual of what my best guestimate of <15% area would look like (ie. only about 1/6 of the whole Arctic Ocean covered in ice.)
The one in the middle is if it is compacted up as usual, the one on the right is if it is just floating-free, blown. Which one do you think a blue ocean event would look more like?
I personally don't think we'll see anything like this for at least 10 years. I could be totally wrong. It's too complex a system, but I just can't see the collapse quite as fast as others are saying (and certainly not this year. Yes, I understand everything is stated as probabilities. I don't know if I'd even call the one in the middle, "a blue ocean event", would you?
I think there is zero % chance of a blue ocean event (<15% area or extent) this year or next year, and likely not for at least 10 years. (A lot of people outside this forum think it means year-round. So that's important to emphasize, since a lot of doomer-chat seems to be confused on this issue. Year-round blue-ocean event is decades away, no?)

What would the experts here say a "blue-ocean" event would look like? since some are already giving some remote possibility of it this 2018 melting season (which I don't think will happen for a decade or more). But if and when it happens, does it look like  any of these?
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 03:51:33 AM by Thomas Barlow »

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1338 on: June 15, 2018, 09:55:08 PM »
Wasn't there a village in Siberia where the difference between max and min temperatures were over 100 degrees centigrade - from over 40 in summer to -60 in winter.

You may be referring to Verkhoyansk, which has recorded a highest summer temperature of 37.3C and a lowest winter temperature or -67.8C, for a range of 105C.  When you hear about someone being sent in exile to Siberian, this is where they went.

I know its OT but no, that is not where they went. They were mostly sent to Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Chita etc, the South of Siberia! Not to Verkhoyansk or Yakutsk. Mind you, average daily temps are -25 C in January in Chita, an -17 C in Irkutsk. Still, it is much better than Yakutsk. Of course with hardly enough food and 12 hour shifts it might not matter much. No more OT, sorry

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1339 on: June 15, 2018, 10:19:40 PM »
While almost everyone is trying to distract themselves with idle gossip and I'm right you re wrong meaningless opinion ranting about what extent will be in September, or what absolutely out of their depth weather computers say might be coming in 7 days...
WE MAY BE EXPERIENCING PROPER EQUABLE CLIMATE MODE WEATHER SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW.
The trains of cyclones in Pacific, Atlantic, and up the centre of the USA, are all feeding air from the tropics to the polar ocean at altitudes from surface to over 18 km.
1000hPa , 850hPa winds, TPW, 250hPA wind and humidity.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1340 on: June 15, 2018, 11:05:35 PM »
The melting ice south of Franz Josef Land is now revealed as a wide area of beautiful lace-like patterns (Worldview, unaltered).  This forms much of the extent of the tongue of ice entering the Barents as evident on AMSR2 images.

That ice has just begun to encounter southerly winds of between 20 and 40 kph, blowing fairly consistently over the next four days, according to Nullschool.  That might well help melt out the lace-like tendrils of ice, and push back this widely dispersed ice towards FJL.  Green dot shows today's wind speed and air temperature in this vicinity.  I am unsure of the possible magnitude of this effect, but it should reduce extent, perhaps substantially. 
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 11:47:35 PM by Pagophilus »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1341 on: June 15, 2018, 11:40:34 PM »
The intense storm for this time of year in the Norwegian sea is building a substantial swell that is heading for the ice edge. It will combine with the effects of warm southerly winds to melt the thin ice and drive the ice edge towards the pole. This will cause an ice extent drop.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1342 on: June 15, 2018, 11:54:28 PM »
To all of us wondering at the slow rate of decline in extent this June, the following from Wipneus on the area and extent blog is most enlightening, so I brought it across.


About 230k of the slow decline in the begin of June can be explained by a particular "quirk" in the algorithm that Jaxa is using to calculate sea ice concentration with a "smooth" in the calculation to prevent an ugly bump in extent.

The adapted Bootstrap Algorithm that Jaxa uses switches on the first of June from dry ice surface to melting. The switch back to dry ice is set at 15th October. Some may remember old versions of the Jaxa extent graphs (at the time produced by a cooperation of IARC and Jaxa , known as IJIS), that did show visible "bumps" on these dates. A refinement in the calculation did a way with those, presumably by gradually smoothing the results.


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1343 on: June 15, 2018, 11:59:49 PM »
Thank you!  I will start using this!

More on my lonely obsession with that tongue of dispersing sea ice south of Franz Josef Land. <snippage>...since this area has been largely covered with clouds over the past two or three weeks, the sheer magnitude of what is happening has been hidden from view. <snippage>
Polarview can be handy when it's cloudy https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
FJL jun13

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1344 on: June 16, 2018, 12:03:44 AM »
WE MAY BE EXPERIENCING PROPER EQUABLE CLIMATE MODE WEATHER SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW.
The trains of cyclones in Pacific, Atlantic, and up the centre of the USA, are all feeding air from the tropics to the polar ocean at altitudes from surface to over 18 km.
1000hPa , 850hPa winds, TPW, 250hPA wind and humidity.

great info indeed thanks for that while i can't restrain to point out that with

THIS: <Quote>
While almost everyone is trying to distract themselves with idle gossip and I'm right you re wrong meaningless opinion ranting about what extent will be in September, or what absolutely out of their depth weather computers say might be coming in 7 days...
<END QUOTE>

you imply that many are doing wrong while you do better (right), hence ....... think LOL

i consider this funny somehow no offend meant or bad feelings, just sayin'

it's just that without part it would have been (is) one of the better contributions of last ;)

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1345 on: June 16, 2018, 12:17:10 AM »
Quote
What  a "blue-ocean" event would look like?  some possibility this 2018 melting season. Does it look like  any of these?
No. The key items to consider are the 2007 and 2012 ice age youtubes. They have been posted here dozens of times. Many people here are overly focused strictly on thermodynamics and single-point summaries of the entire Arctic Ocean, such as a number for area without regards to how that area is distributed. However that distribution is critical to end-of-season.

In those record years (and most others), while thermodynamics plays a decisive role in setting the stage, when extent gets low, winds become the decisive agent via both dispersion of ice to scattered more vulnerable floes, rapid advection to places where the ocean surface water is too warm, and out-of-basin export.

This results in a September picture resembling a comma ","rotated 180º CWwith its tail in the Chukchi and ESS. As with 2018, the lower CAA is the source of this residual ice which was initially about the oldest and thickest left.

Given enough weeks of a quasi-stationary high centered off the Beaufort with an associated westward wind along the Alaskan coast but not a return gyre (a frequent pattern this spring), another 2007 will develop, in conjunction with strong FJL-SV and Fram export.

However pack strength and ice thickness are drastically reduced today relative to 2007 whereas surface water is warmer and freeze-up much later. There's no requirement for another GAC black gray swan event though one would certainly contribute.

/*/*/*/*

The whole question of 'first blue ocean' is ill-posed to begin with. It just kicks the climate change can  down the road. We should be talking about the knock-on effects of the partially blue ocean  already the current reality. No significant effects at 25% ... 50% ... 75% blue ocean?

For example, the Chukchi Sea has open water 11.5 months of the year now. Surely that is way past 'seasonally ice-free'. Who here can remember a meaningful winter ice cover of the Barents Sea? It is actually part of the officially defined Arctic Ocean but now gets thrown in with the Greenland Sea or even North Atlantic. 

The discussion on some forums reminds me of one soccer team moving their goal post into the grandstands and even out to the street but the other team somehow not noticing and still playing up to the newly contrived set-up. They'll never score a blue ocean goal because the goal post will then be moved to "twelve months for five consecutive years". After that, thirty years of stats needed to rule out "natural variation". Then more decades to rule out cycles.

Meanwhile we're already in big trouble now from Arctic amplification, with more of it baked in. Whatever the full effects of an altogether missing 'planetary refrigerator' might be, the partial effects of a diminished planetary refrigerator are already upon us. And that's just the albedo part ... there are many other adverse considerations in the literature.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 12:27:23 AM by A-Team »

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1346 on: June 16, 2018, 12:21:41 AM »
While almost everyone is trying to distract themselves with idle gossip and I'm right you re wrong meaningless opinion ranting about what extent will be in September, or what absolutely out of their depth weather computers say might be coming in 7 days...
WE MAY BE EXPERIENCING PROPER EQUABLE CLIMATE MODE WEATHER SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW.
The trains of cyclones in Pacific, Atlantic, and up the centre of the USA, are all feeding air from the tropics to the polar ocean at altitudes from surface to over 18 km.
1000hPa , 850hPa winds, TPW, 250hPA wind and humidity.

This is more or less the reason I took notice of this message board...this isn't at all normal is it?

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1347 on: June 16, 2018, 01:04:00 AM »
Well said (as usual) A-Team.

miki

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1348 on: June 16, 2018, 01:17:10 AM »
Quote
What  a "blue-ocean" event would look like?  some possibility this 2018 melting season. Does it look like  any of these?

The discussion on some forums reminds me of one soccer team moving their goal post into the grandstands and even out to the street but the other team somehow not noticing and still playing up to the newly contrived set-up. They'll never score a blue ocean goal because the goal post will then be moved to "twelve months for five consecutive years". After that, thirty years of stats needed to rule out "natural variation". Then more decades to rule out cycles.

Meanwhile we're already in big trouble now from Arctic amplification, with more of it baked in. Whatever the full effects of an altogether missing 'planetary refrigerator' might be, the partial effects of a diminished planetary refrigerator are already upon us. And that's just the albedo part ... there are many other adverse considerations in the literature.

Standing Ovation. Sincerely.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1349 on: June 16, 2018, 01:53:29 AM »
While almost everyone is trying to distract themselves with idle gossip and I'm right you re wrong meaningless opinion ranting about what extent will be in September, or what absolutely out of their depth weather computers say might be coming in 7 days...
WE MAY BE EXPERIENCING PROPER EQUABLE CLIMATE MODE WEATHER SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW.
The trains of cyclones in Pacific, Atlantic, and up the centre of the USA, are all feeding air from the tropics to the polar ocean at altitudes from surface to over 18 km.
1000hPa , 850hPa winds, TPW, 250hPA wind and humidity.

This is more or less the reason I took notice of this message board...this isn't at all normal is it?

It is routine for cyclones to move from the equator towards the poles. I personally do not know if the current number of cyclones out there is unusual for this time of year.  You should note that cyclones that arrive in the Arctic in June can inhibit melting rather than promote it.