Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2018 melting season  (Read 700866 times)

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 875
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 483
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1350 on: June 16, 2018, 02:10:52 AM »
The south to north vector wind anomalies have been exceptional so far this June. This pattern hasn't been even close to normal.

And the past 6 weeks have been unprecedented in the transport of heat in the north Atlantic since I started watching sea surface temperature anomalies in 1981. That's about an 8 meter per second (or about 18mph) southerly wind anomaly in the Norwegian sea for a period of 6 weeks.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 03:20:30 AM by FishOutofWater »

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1351 on: June 16, 2018, 02:39:01 AM »
A nice Worldview pic from the recent small dry cyclone between the Laptev and East Siberian seas, showing some ice moving southbound toward the Lena delta on northerly winds. Also a spectacular image of the inbound Atlantic moisture-bringing cyclone between Norway and Iceland/Greenland.


jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 540
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1352 on: June 16, 2018, 06:31:34 AM »
The melting ice south of Franz Josef Land is now revealed as a wide area of beautiful lace-like patterns (Worldview, unaltered).  <snippage>

50,000KM2 of extent that will vanish with a stiff breeze.

Looking at the Kara and eastern Barents approaches to it, with massive melt ponding and extent looking like a bowl of ice cubes, it's not particularly better.
This space for Rent.

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1353 on: June 16, 2018, 06:43:54 AM »
There iss a clear view of much of the Svalbard FJI front on worldview onJune 15. I've included a spectacular image of melt south of the Franz Joseph Islands - that's ~ 50k km2 of current extent.

I also used levels to clear thin cloud from part of an image of the edge of the main pack, which has been pushed half a degree south into the melt zone.

The region is now in for a storm with up to 40knot winds blowing first toward Greenland and Fram, and then turning around after a day to blow back the other way. There will be 2.5 metre waves to churn the ice edge as well


Retron

  • New ice
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1354 on: June 16, 2018, 08:31:15 AM »
Watch that fast ice crumble! This is three days' worth of imagery of the Laptev Sea, 14, 15 and 16th June.

(Click image to see animation).

psymmo7

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1355 on: June 16, 2018, 09:34:25 AM »
A-team's Post from yesterday 15. June

Meanwhile we're already in big trouble now from Arctic amplification, with more of it baked in. Whatever the full effects of an altogether missing 'planetary refrigerator' might be, the partial effects of a diminished planetary refrigerator are already upon us. And that's just the albedo part ... there are many other adverse considerations in the literature.

Thank you A-team for summarising the situation so succinctly. As Neven said somewhere it is rather like "watching a train crash in slow motion" and its excruciatingly painful to know its my teenage grandchildren who are going to have to deal with the mess afterwards

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1376
  • Likes Given: 287
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1356 on: June 16, 2018, 11:28:55 AM »
It does look like there is a band of thicker ice across the Laptev as indicated by the PIOMAS model. Brightness/Contrast has been adjusted quite heavily to bring out the surface features.
Worldview north of Laptev gap jun15-16.

Imagej: Brightness/Contrast 113,255

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 307
  • Likes Given: 454
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1357 on: June 16, 2018, 04:37:30 PM »
Big news from the remarkable gerontocrat on the area and extent blog (just in case you are not following this...)

Extent, meet Reality,  Reality...


NSIDC ONE DAY DAILY EXTENT DROPPED BY:-

112 k 15th June
110 k 14th June

First double century break of the season? Now the June cliff starts (or not) ?

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 540
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1358 on: June 16, 2018, 07:59:37 PM »
Big news from the remarkable gerontocrat on the area and extent blog (just in case you are not following this...)

Extent, meet Reality,  Reality...


NSIDC ONE DAY DAILY EXTENT DROPPED BY:-

112 k 15th June
110 k 14th June

First double century break of the season? Now the June cliff starts (or not) ?
200,000 KM2 of sea surface that just dropped from about a .6 albedo to about .06, and that change is not focused in just one zone - it's all over the pack.  That translates into an instant 1-2% increase in heat uptake.

There's at least another million KM2 of ice in nearly as vulnerable a state as that which just vanished.  Interesting days may be immediately ahead.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1359 on: June 16, 2018, 08:06:08 PM »
Big news from the remarkable gerontocrat on the area and extent blog (just in case you are not following this...)

Extent, meet Reality,  Reality...


NSIDC ONE DAY DAILY EXTENT DROPPED BY:-

112 k 15th June
110 k 14th June

First double century break of the season? Now the June cliff starts (or not) ?
200,000 KM2 of sea surface that just dropped from about a .6 albedo to about .06, and that change is not focused in just one zone - it's all over the pack.  That translates into an instant 1-2% increase in heat uptake.

There's at least another million KM2 of ice in nearly as vulnerable a state as that which just vanished.  Interesting days may be immediately ahead.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1360 on: June 16, 2018, 08:19:44 PM »
I think the albedo maps show a catastrophic impending minimum. Something important to note is that the separation between ESS / CAB is only growing in recent maps and ongoing projections. Instead of detaching and retreating with the rest of the ice as it normally does, it looks like this year could legitimately cleave the normally coherent whole into multiple packs.

This would allow open water to reach much farther into the CAB than normal. The ESS and Kara will both melt out anyways (maybe not entirely for the ESS).

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1333
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1361 on: June 16, 2018, 09:06:09 PM »
bbr: great pics, but is it possible for you to include the color scale in the figure that shows the sea ice thickness too? :)

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1362 on: June 16, 2018, 10:57:30 PM »
Those are albedo. Thickness GIF below. I would describe 2018 as "catastrophic". It has none of the buffer that even years like 2016 had. Everything that normally contains the cold within the CAB will be obliterated by mid July.



While #s may seem lackluster at the moment I would argue that the sequential nature of melt and the state of the current high Arctic argues that the CAB will endure a *longer* melt season than normal with *much* more oceanic heat at disposal and *much* less extant ice buffer. Things look like they are setting up to easily surpass 2012.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 11:05:17 PM by bbr2314 »

ReverendMilkbone

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1363 on: June 17, 2018, 12:58:25 AM »
Those are albedo. Thickness GIF below. I would describe 2018 as "catastrophic". It has none of the buffer that even years like 2016 had. Everything that normally contains the cold within the CAB will be obliterated by mid July.



While #s may seem lackluster at the moment I would argue that the sequential nature of melt and the state of the current high Arctic argues that the CAB will endure a *longer* melt season than normal with *much* more oceanic heat at disposal and *much* less extant ice buffer. Things look like they are setting up to easily surpass 2012.

Wow...and 2016 was way down from normal...



But what does the Time mean?  June 24th?  It is only the 16th.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 548
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1364 on: June 17, 2018, 03:29:35 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1365 on: June 17, 2018, 03:43:27 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows
I think the volume #s are fake and an artifact of +++snowfall anomalies this year (which have evaporated this month over the High Arctic).

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 736
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1366 on: June 17, 2018, 04:35:42 AM »
bbr: great pics, but is it possible for you to include the color scale in the figure that shows the sea ice thickness too? :)
bbr: Also  a link to the site providing the data would be useful. Thanks
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 307
  • Likes Given: 454
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1367 on: June 17, 2018, 05:40:11 AM »
I respect your thoughts, and I recognize that our language (including mine) in this semi-formal area can get a little free and loose. 

That said, I think the use of terms like 'fake' should be avoided, unless you think the data or analyses have actually been faked.  I presume this was not your intent, and of course there seems to be no reason to believe there has been any faking in this area.

I think the volume #s are fake and an artifact of +++snowfall anomalies this year (which have evaporated this month over the High Arctic).

« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 05:50:53 AM by Pagophilus »

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 701
  • Likes Given: 413
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1368 on: June 17, 2018, 06:21:50 AM »
June 12-16.

Cid_Yama

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
    • The Post Peak Oil Historian
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1369 on: June 17, 2018, 12:28:19 PM »
It seemed pretty clear he meant the numbers were an artifact and not real(fake).   
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1370 on: June 17, 2018, 12:41:00 PM »
It seemed pretty clear he meant the numbers were an artifact and not real(fake).

Under Trump Administration nobody can be sure, that Numbers are not faked.

Hyperion

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1371 on: June 17, 2018, 12:57:04 PM »
We got some mighty big waves pounding into the Atlantic kill zone. Chaps like these can penetrate hundreds of km into the pack and mix deep water up to flash melt it.
And SMOS meltpond/thin ice has gone mental. Its suggesting that a huge pole hole could open up detaching an island of a ice north of FJL. If the waves and shallow Atlantic heat that's got right out to the Pole don't get it first that is.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 01:08:39 PM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hyperion

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1372 on: June 17, 2018, 01:35:26 PM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows
I think the volume #s are fake and an artifact of +++snowfall anomalies this year (which have evaporated this month over the High Arctic).
What he said.
Plus frivz, you stuck in ancient history thinking bra.
The best chance for some ice surviving is if high pressure systems sat on the Beaufort. That might prolong the life of the dying gyre which has already puked most of a its guts over the east and tropical Atlantic, rocket thrusting its remnant core out into this CAB. If some assistance Whā the clockwise surface circulation set in, then some ice could survived cocooning against the CAA.  But the deep hot salty Gulfstream water that used to slip through the gap in the lomonosov ridge nearby Greenland stopped doing that years ago. Instead of injecting its momentum at depth into the Gyre, its puddled up for a decade, and  now bust in to the Beaufort, freshened by mixing along the ESAS and over the Chukchi plateau. So mixable to surface and ready to strangle this Beaufort gyre like an anaconda.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1373 on: June 17, 2018, 02:31:05 PM »
It seemed pretty clear he meant the numbers were an artifact and not real(fake).

Under Trump Administration nobody can be sure, that Numbers are not faked.

even though i don't think they're faked, faked implies intention, i think that under certain circumstance they can be slightly flawed.

nevertheless i agree about trump in general of course, just don't think to fake those numbers is not worth the effort and his attention to the matter doesn't go that far.

reason is that he is a denier and probably believes big part of what he is saying because he's not the smartest fellow as well. what is interesting as well is that we lost almost all the cameras with useful information about how things look from the ground or in situ. a pity, because one could much easier  get a feel about weather and surface conditions with the help of visuals.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1374 on: June 17, 2018, 03:17:34 PM »
There iss a clear view of much of the Svalbard FJI front on worldview onJune 15. I've included a spectacular image of melt south of the Franz Joseph Islands - that's ~ 50k km2 of current extent.

I also used levels to clear thin cloud from part of an image of the edge of the main pack, which has been pushed half a degree south into the melt zone.

The region is now in for a storm with up to 40knot winds blowing first toward Greenland and Fram, and then turning around after a day to blow back the other way. There will be 2.5 metre waves to churn the ice edge as well

Those are gorgeous images and the level of fracturing of the ice edge where it is at its highest concentration (not the exquisite tendrils of the bulb) is unprecedented IMHO. Welcome to the new Arctic, MYI stitched together during the winter with fragile FYI that is very weak due to warm winters and highly fractured and mobile during the melt season.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1375 on: June 17, 2018, 05:15:02 PM »
Chaps like these can penetrate hundreds of km into the pack

Are you quite sure about that?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 897
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1376 on: June 17, 2018, 05:30:33 PM »
Chaps like these can penetrate hundreds of km into the pack

Are you quite sure about that?

Surely energy is no longer damped out as fast as the old ,contiguous ice, used to?

Todays pack ,being highly fragmented, probably moves more like chain mail than the old plate armour of the contiguous pack?

As such swells must penetrate further into the pack?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1377 on: June 17, 2018, 05:56:27 PM »
Such swells must penetrate further into the pack?

That seems eminently reasonable, but an arbitrary "hundreds of km"? And it's the period of the swell rather than its "bigness" that's more important in that regard.

Not so very long ago I personally undertook an extremely dangerous experiment in order to demonstrate that point:



I leave it as an exercise for the interested viewer to establish the period of that particular swell.


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 875
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 483
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1378 on: June 17, 2018, 07:45:42 PM »
I love watching you eat it, Jim. Do you remember how deep long period swell waves penetrate and how much mixing they cause?

P.S. I learned a lot about long-period waves bodysurfing the beach breaks,  point breaks and reef breaks of Kauai. Long-period waves of even modest amplitude have the power to crush things, especially surfers.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1379 on: June 17, 2018, 08:25:26 PM »
I love watching you eat it, Jim.

You are too kind FOoW!

Venturing back to YouTube for the first time in a while I discovered that several recent commentators had failed to understand that my bright yellow Hot Buttered bodyboard was supposed to represent a dirty white chunk of fractured sea ice in the "New Arctic".

Hopefully they've all got that straight now. Sea ice can't duck dive!
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 08:39:11 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1380 on: June 17, 2018, 08:55:04 PM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

Who are you? and what have you done with our Frivolous?

Hyperion

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1381 on: June 17, 2018, 09:24:10 PM »
I love watching you eat it, Jim. Do you remember how deep long period swell waves penetrate and how much mixing they cause?

P.S. I learned a lot about long-period waves bodysurfing the beach breaks,  point breaks and reef breaks of Kauai. Long-period waves of even modest amplitude have the power to crush things, especially surfers.
And what is the we have here is the reverse scenario of the body boarder being crushed scenario. As they leave the continental shelf their velocity and wavelength increases, while amplitude drops. Allowing them to penetrate deeply. There were direct observations of this by some scientific expedition in a vessel inside the pack north of fjl a few years ago. I believe their reports were noted on this forum.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 540
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1382 on: June 17, 2018, 09:26:07 PM »
Chaps like these can penetrate hundreds of km into the pack

Are you quite sure about that?

I've seen some documentation of it like this:

"On 06 September 2009, we observed the intrusion of large swells into the multiyear pack ice approximately 250 km from the ice edge."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JC007221
This space for Rent.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1383 on: June 17, 2018, 09:30:06 PM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

Who are you? and what have you done with our Frivolous?

Friv is just saying it as it is.  NSIDC Extent crossed 2012 today and is sitting on top of 2010.  In the next 2 weeks, barring some significant melt, 2018 is going to drop to about 5th or 6th place in extent stakes.

Were it a case that the entire pack was massively fragmented, with very extensive melt ponding, it would not really be something to talk about.  But that is not the case this year.

Of course there is a very real chance that things will all go for a radical melt year, but the environment is currently against it.  We dropped into Solar Minimum about 6 months earlier than I expected last year but we are bouncing along the bottom.  That means that all the energy which hits the arctic is slightly less.  It means all the energy from the entire planet, to be advected into the Arctic, via storms and pressure systems, is less.

Not a lot less but, perhaps, enough.

CO2 has jumped the largest we have ever recorded in the decade from 2008 (close to 23ppm).  The Ice is thinner and the volume is significantly reduced from a decade ago.

So significant melt is always to be expected.  What is not to be expected, given the start of the season and how it is melting now, are records.

Of course, given the >400ppm CO2, the state of the ice and the change in the weather bringing more storms, there is absolutely no certainty, but it really does not look like it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1384 on: June 17, 2018, 09:33:40 PM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

Who are you? and what have you done with our Frivolous?

Friv is just saying it as it is. 

Precisely my point.  The real Friv is *much* more exciting than that.   ;D

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1385 on: June 17, 2018, 09:35:33 PM »
Do you remember how deep long period swell waves penetrate and how much mixing they cause?

To the best of my admittedly ageing recollection this from David Barber is the best we have on the effects of a long period swell on his famous "rotten" sea ice:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/

Quote
Laser data collected during the helicopter EMI survey at station MYI indicated a swell period of 13.5 s, and a wavelength ranging from 200–300 m.

The swell caused the vast MY ice floe nearest the Amundsen to ride up one side of the swell and fracture as it crested the wave peak, creating smaller ice floes of width approximately one half of the wavelength of the swell. In a matter of minutes from the initial onset of swell propagation, all large MY ice floes in the region were fractured in this manner, yielding a new distribution of smaller MY ice floes ranging from 100–150 m in diameter.

On 09 September 2009, we conducted a longitudinal helicopter EMI survey at 72.5 N, and determined the limit of the swell penetration into the pack ice at 72.526 N 134.51 W, a penetration of 350 km.

Let me see if I can find a quote from the great (and still not late!) Walter Munk next.

P.S. Sorry JD.  Our messages crossed while I was eating my tea (BST).
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1386 on: June 17, 2018, 09:37:33 PM »
I've seen some documentation of it like this:


Exactly the link I was going to point to jdallen.  Also I was going to point out that Jim Hunt reported this at the time in his GreatWhiteCon post.

Ours crossed too Jim.

Extract from the abstract of that article from Jdallen.

Quote
On 06 September 2009, we observed the intrusion of large swells into the multiyear pack ice approximately 250 km from the ice edge

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1387 on: June 17, 2018, 09:39:46 PM »
There were direct observations of this by some scientific expedition in a vessel inside the pack north of fjl a few years ago. I believe their reports were noted on this forum.

Indeed. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/arctic-sea-ice-news-from-agu/

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Hyperion

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1388 on: June 17, 2018, 09:53:49 PM »
Nullschool SSTA has updated. Its animating currents also but not overlay. Perhaps later today. Looks like the warm blobs heading east. Will it go north? The main current off Newfoundland looks to have edged that way. Meanwhile here's 11 June and 16 below it
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1389 on: June 17, 2018, 09:57:50 PM »
Their velocity and wavelength increases, while amplitude drops.

Nothing directly relevant from Walter yet, but here's Wikipedia on the physics:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_wave#Physics_of_waves

Plus the surf forecast for the day I ate it:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg55215.html#msg55215


« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 10:07:53 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1390 on: June 17, 2018, 10:02:06 PM »
Precisely my point.  The real Friv is *much* more exciting than that.   ;D

It's not really that exciting though is it?  DMI has gone from really exciting to bumping along the 273k line, the North American side is simply resisting melting away and if we compare, for instance, 2012 at this day in the year on Bremen



With 2018
(sadly this will change as we go on because I don't have the current day's link)



There are some very significant departures from the extensive melt of 2012.  The Extent figures may show virtually the same, but where the ice is gone shows an entirely different picture.

Similar to comparing 2007 with 2009 for the same day.

Going back and doing that, some things are obvious and that is the high melt years have a very different dispersal of melt and also have high melt ponding at this time of year.

Not really anything to get excited about.  Unless we see some unexpected sudden change.
With 2018

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 187
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 129
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1391 on: June 17, 2018, 10:07:48 PM »
While 2012 may have more extensive meltponding, 2018 is alone from other years in terms of the state of ice along the Svalbard-to-FJL boundary.
computer janitor by trade

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1392 on: June 17, 2018, 10:40:43 PM »
True.  But as you will note Neven often talks about Melt Momentum.  2012 had it.  2018 is not exhibiting it.

This was very apparent in 2017 where the extreme early warm weather did not turn into extensive melting in the critical June/July period.  August melting can be fast, but there is simply not enough heat budget left to melt enough Ice to make records if June/July is not also in, or close to, record territory.

Not until the ice volume and thickness are low "enough" to make the difference.

It is not looking like we are there yet.  There is absolutely no doubt that we will get there.  It is just a matter of when.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4890
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 534
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1393 on: June 17, 2018, 11:24:24 PM »
Having gone through the theory at length, here's the WaveWatch III forecast for 12Z today from the 6Z run.

What does the team think?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1394 on: June 17, 2018, 11:41:29 PM »
Precisely my point.  The real Friv is *much* more exciting than that.   ;D

It's not really that exciting though is it?

My apologies for attempting levity.  Lesson learned.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7822
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1140
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1395 on: June 17, 2018, 11:46:15 PM »
I agree with friv that high pressure needs to move over to the Canadian side of the Arctic for more momentum being built up there. No sign of that yet, according to the ECMWF model (Tropical Tidbits):
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7822
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1140
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1396 on: June 17, 2018, 11:57:27 PM »
As for SSTs, there's work to be done there too, especially on the Atlantic side, if the DMI SST anomaly maps are to be believed. In my very small archive of those, I happened to have 2012, 2016, 2017 June 15th maps to compare to this year's:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Pagophilus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 307
  • Likes Given: 454
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1397 on: June 18, 2018, 12:18:46 AM »
Meanwhile, looking at the near-present, it is interesting how the AMSR2 Bremen image from June 16 gives a rather solid impression of the state of the north/east Kara Sea, but Worldview (contrast altered to 'see' below the clouds) tells a much bleaker story, with widely distributed ice floes in much of the area.  (Admittedly the contrast alteration is pretty heavy so some light refreeze between floes might be missed).

There also seems to be something of an invasion of smaller floes from the south/west Kara Sea going on...

And no, none of this is a criticism of AMSR2.  I love AMSR2.  If I were a NASA imaging system, I would probably marry AMRSR2.

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 875
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 483
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1398 on: June 18, 2018, 12:20:45 AM »
The swell is going to make a mark on the ice edge.

The weather this spring has been cold over the Kara sea until the last 5 days. There has been a large transfer of heat in the North Atlantic but it only made it up to southern Sweden and Norway on the SST maps.

After the big Greenland melt years of 2010 and 2012 the Greenland and Labrador seas had a large excess of fresh water that reduced deep water formation and northward heat and salt transport into the Norwegian current. That temporarily stabilized the Arctic ice pack, in my opinion leading to the apparent recovery in 2013 and 2014.

If Greenland continues to stay relatively cool this summer I think it will be bad for next summer's Arctic ice because another surge of warm salty water will likely keep on pumping into the Arctic. I think we have reached the point where Greenland or the Arctic ice can do well, but not both. However, there's a lag of 1 to 2 years on the effect of Greenland melting on Arctic sea ice.

The pressure anomaly pattern for the past 30 days has helped keep the ice in the Kara sea that was long gone on this date in 2012.

Hyperion

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1399 on: June 18, 2018, 12:26:16 AM »
Having gone through the theory at length, here's the WaveWatch III forecast for 12Z today from the 6Z run.

What does the team think?
There's going to be a lot o reflecting of those long period waves off severny island. Could result in a nasty field of pyramid waves in the FJL area.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party