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Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1650 on: June 26, 2018, 07:15:44 AM »
In the melt season, yes it's useless for measuring thickness.

What it is sensitive to then is "wetness of the surface and occurence of melt ponds":

I stand corrected. I figured it was useless because the changes are all over the place when I look at animations. But maybe there's a way to compare to previous years, after all.

My very amateur weather eye sees that the weather forecasting models look quite consistent for the next week, with high pressure currently over the Laptev sea weakening but ridging toward a building high on the Beaufort/CAA side, which stays stationary at about 1025mb into the weekend. Meanwhile low pressure spins near Franz Josef Land, although the models differ a little on how deep the low gets, ECMWF a bit weaker and GFS a bit stronger. Seems like good melting weather for parts of the ice that haven't seen much direct sun yet, continued strong sun in along the eastern Siberian side, and also consistent winds blowing ice toward the Atlantic.

Excellent summary. I'm curious to see how extent and area will respond, given the recent spectacular stall. If it takes too long, I agree with Friv that this melting season won't be making top 5.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1651 on: June 26, 2018, 08:51:27 AM »
The aforemented high pressure is not going to give any significant WAA into the Arctic basin. Sunshine and some melt ponds, yes, but the real melting momentum will be lacking. And most of the weather models indicates that this high pressure won't be more persistent but a return to more clody and cyclonic weather should likely be seen in about a week or so.

This melting season should likely pan out like 2013-2014 and perhaps like 1996 wrt the degree of melting.  And no, it won't be top-5, not even close. I agree with both Neven and Friv at that point. That would be interesting for the upcoming refreeze season. Very warm waters surrounding the Arctic but with a inner core of ice that wil be able to get some "recovery".

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1652 on: June 26, 2018, 09:22:19 AM »
Here's how the CMOS microwave maps look for the past 40 days.

Downloaded from: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/
2.0 s for first and last day
0.1 s for the 38 intermediate days.

As discussed a few posts back, during the melt season these measurements should correlate - mainly not with the ice thickness - but instead more with the surface wetness.

Observations:

o There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet
o There's a fair bit of day-to-day variation
o Also some beige patches can move around while persisting for several days or can re-establish themselves after having previously shifted to other colors.

Due to the persistence of beige patches, it may be that the day-to-day variation is at least in part due to physics - namely melting and refreezing - rather than noise.

IGNORE THE COLOR LEGEND'S NUMERICAL SCALE & LABEL (the color order progression should be valid though) - DURING THE MELT SEASON THESE ARE NOT LEGITIMATE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS.

Click to view day sequence.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2018, 09:48:31 AM by slow wing »

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1653 on: June 26, 2018, 10:01:20 AM »
The low over the Greenland/Norwegian sea could hardly be better positioned to encourage tidal flows of atlantic waters into the arctic. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-23.99,77.56,1389/loc=-3.500,73.389

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1654 on: June 26, 2018, 10:54:52 AM »
I think maybe it's time to accept the basin has changed and, as we move toward an ever more fragmented pack, when temps hit above freezing the 'glue' holding the pack together lets go leaving an increasingly fragmented/mobil pack over june/july?

And coastal strips that had cleared will be repopulated by drift ice and give us the impression of a 'stall' whereas we may be seeing quite rapid melt of the ice in those peripheral areas?

We will only ever know it's been a bad season for the ice if there has been enough energy to melt the bulk of the FY ice thickness that season?

What we might also see are larger losses later in melt season as isolated floes, of similar thickness, give up the ghost?

Gone is the June cliff and arriving is the june stall/slowdown.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1655 on: June 26, 2018, 12:17:34 PM »
Worldview, Laptev Gulf of Yana jun26

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1656 on: June 26, 2018, 02:56:38 PM »
The aforemented high pressure is not going to give any significant WAA into the Arctic basin. Sunshine and some melt ponds, yes, but the real melting momentum will be lacking. And most of the weather models indicates that this high pressure won't be more persistent but a return to more clody and cyclonic weather should likely be seen in about a week or so.

This melting season should likely pan out like 2013-2014 and perhaps like 1996 wrt the degree of melting.  And no, it won't be top-5, not even close. I agree with both Neven and Friv at that point. That would be interesting for the upcoming refreeze season. Very warm waters surrounding the Arctic but with a inner core of ice that wil be able to get some "recovery".

Yeah, the models have already trended back towards a dirty ridge with only modestly warm mid, level WAA.

Then both go right back to a negative dipole during the most critical period.

Only 2010 had cool July weather but 2010 torched in May/june.

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


However the melt season is only part of the equation.

The past couple years have seen record low ice coverage the other 3/4th of the time.

Very indicative of a larger regime change to a warmer Earth
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1657 on: June 26, 2018, 03:51:43 PM »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1658 on: June 26, 2018, 05:30:05 PM »

....
However the melt season is only part of the equation.
The past couple years have seen record low ice coverage the other 3/4th of the time.
Very indicative of a larger regime change to a warmer Earth


The winter DMI temperature north of 80° seems indicative of this too. As the earth warms and the water content of the atmosphere increases we seem to be tending to a cloud covered Arctic with a more equitable climate: Less emissive energy loss during the freeze, less insolation energy gained during the melt. An ice pack covered in cloud and fresh snow doesn't seem likely to break any extent records.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1659 on: June 26, 2018, 06:30:07 PM »
This afternoon's GFS holds the Pacific toward Atlantic dipole flow well out through (and perhaps a bit beyond) the period of reasonable reliability.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1660 on: June 26, 2018, 07:31:20 PM »

As discussed a few posts back, during the melt season these measurements should correlate - mainly not with the ice thickness - but instead more with the surface wetness.

Observations:

o There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet
o There's a fair bit of day-to-day variation
o Also some beige patches can move around while persisting for several days or can re-establish themselves after having previously shifted to other colors.

Due to the persistence of beige patches, it may be that the day-to-day variation is at least in part due to physics - namely melting and refreezing
There is also the matter of wind driven compaction and the 40 km area that is averaged by the sensor resolution. When I look this it appears we are actually getting a lot of information on expansion and compaction in these SMOS sequences. Researching I find that leads smaller than 200m are not resolved by other instruments and so counted in area figures we are being given.
I'm still a little unclear on the Salinity effect on the depth SMOS senses. It has very accurate salinity sensing capabilities. 0.1 PSU. Penetrates clouds very well and can measure soil moisture levels several inches into the ground. But is it not the Salinity that most affects the thickness measurement accuracy?
Here's the 23, 24, 25 June SMOS and surface winds animated. I can't clip the thickness scale without the date being lost. So longer initial frame and no fade between last and first.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1661 on: June 26, 2018, 07:35:17 PM »
I think maybe it's time to accept the basin has changed and, as we move toward an ever more fragmented pack, when temps hit above freezing the 'glue' holding the pack together lets go leaving an increasingly fragmented/mobil pack over june/july?

And coastal strips that had cleared will be repopulated by drift ice and give us the impression of a 'stall' whereas we may be seeing quite rapid melt of the ice in those peripheral areas?

We will only ever know it's been a bad season for the ice if there has been enough energy to melt the bulk of the FY ice thickness that season?

What we might also see are larger losses later in melt season as isolated floes, of similar thickness, give up the ghost?

Gone is the June cliff and arriving is the june stall/slowdown.

something along that line, always glad to see folks with a clue blowing this horn but it the kind of thing i try to say even though not in such a comprehensive manner, thanks.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1662 on: June 26, 2018, 07:50:36 PM »
In the melt season, yes it's useless for measuring thickness.

What it is sensitive to then is "wetness of the surface and occurence of melt ponds":

I stand corrected. I figured it was useless because the changes are all over the place when I look at animations. But maybe there's a way to compare to previous years, after all.

My very amateur weather eye sees that the weather forecasting models look quite consistent for the next week, with high pressure currently over the Laptev sea weakening but ridging toward a building high on the Beaufort/CAA side, which stays stationary at about 1025mb into the weekend. Meanwhile low pressure spins near Franz Josef Land, although the models differ a little on how deep the low gets, ECMWF a bit weaker and GFS a bit stronger. Seems like good melting weather for parts of the ice that haven't seen much direct sun yet, continued strong sun in along the eastern Siberian side, and also consistent winds blowing ice toward the Atlantic.

Excellent summary. I'm curious to see how extent and area will respond, given the recent spectacular stall. If it takes too long, I agree with Friv that this melting season won't be making top 5.

I think there is far too .much obsession going on with meltponds and surface wetness. For various reasons there is big increase in salinity from the surface to the bottom of the ice now. Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before. And wave action, porosity, small fragment size, no deep keeled ice to maintain a freshwater lid are all contributions.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1663 on: June 26, 2018, 07:51:37 PM »

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


Any particular reason for 150 years? There was a paper that got quite a lot of attention last year that I interpreted as finding this was on a 70-year cycle.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1664 on: June 26, 2018, 08:48:13 PM »
I would like to say that the period 2005-2012 that many of you are discussing is lacking one component that I see as vital! During 2007, 2010 and 2011 we had La Niña conditions during June-July-August as defined by the ONI-numbers in the Niño 3.4-area.

For 2005, the ONI-number during these months was cool neutral which also was true for 2008.

For 2012, the ONI was warm neutral but OTOH, we had just come out from a very long La Niña.

2006 and 2009 were quite slow melting years but both years saw an El Niño.

After 2012, the flip in PDO started and 2013 was as we all know a really slow melting year despite cool neutral ONI-numbers.

2014 and 2017 both had warm neutral conditions. 2015 we had strong El Niño conditions impinging upon us. In 2016 the ONI was cool neutral moving to a weak La Niña but OTOH, the atmosphere was superheated.

All in all, the next major melting season will come when either 1) a strong and maybe a prolonged La Niña emerge or 2) when the PDO switches back to its negative phase!

If this would be true we might get a "better" melting season in 2019, 2020 or 2021. It will depend upon if we get an El Niño this year and how strong it might be. A plausible scenario is a prolonged El Niño for 2018 to the beginning of 2020 which more or less certainly would take us to a bigger La Niña in 2020.

PDO should not switch back to the negative phase until around 2030 unless this isn't a repeat of the positive PDO-regime that was seen during the late 1950's.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1665 on: June 26, 2018, 10:48:40 PM »
None of the weather or ocean currents are behaving like they did.volatility in the Arctic weather is though the roof, yet the cold fresh melt water continues to flood out and cover half the North Atlantic ocean.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1666 on: June 26, 2018, 11:00:41 PM »
5 -day Climate Reanalyzer forecast as of today June 26.  The 3-day forecast, and for what it is worth, 10 day forecast look similar to this.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1667 on: June 27, 2018, 04:03:51 AM »

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


Any particular reason for 150 years? There was a paper that got quite a lot of attention last year that I interpreted as finding this was on a 70-year cycle.

I through that out there basically against the ncep data that goes back that far and there being no comparable period with such a consistent summer dipole and -ao pattern.

Id love to see the papers findings tho.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1668 on: June 27, 2018, 04:25:28 AM »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1669 on: June 27, 2018, 04:28:56 AM »
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slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1670 on: June 27, 2018, 04:40:09 AM »
Following on from post #1652 above, I wanted to compare the CMOS microwave maps from a) this year, 2018, to b) the record low extent year, 2012.

Anecdotally at least, the 2012 year was also notable for its preponderance of melt ponds, which is largely what CMOS measures during the melt season - rather than the ice depth, which is largely what is measured during the freeze season.

The CMOS maps for each day shown were downloaded from: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/ .

The first two map gifs shown below, are for 2018 and 2012, respectively.

The 2018 map gif is as in #1652 - showing the 40 days from 2018-05-17 to 2018-06-25 inclusive, with display lengths:
2.0 s for first and last day
0.1 s for the 38 intermediate days.

The 2012 map initially shows the same days as given above for 2018, and with the same delay lengths. It then extends in 10-day increments to approximately the end of the melt season, with display lengths
1.0 s for the intermediate days
2.0 s for the final day displayed, 2018-09-03.


Observations from gif 2 (and compared to gif 1):

o like 2018, 2012 was mostly beige on the starting date, 05-17, indicating essentially dry ice throughout most of the interior;
o 2012 surface water began appearing fast in early June;
o 2012 surface melt was more advanced than this year by the final comparison date, 06-25; the remaining large beige part corresponded roughly to the 'ice sanctuary' region North of the CAA and Greenland;
o by the next date shown in 2012, 2012-07-05, the beige had mostly disappeared even from the sanctuary region;
o the beige reappeared in the sanctuary region by 2012-08-14 - much of the ice outside that region had already melted out;
o the final date, 2012-09-03, appears to show in beige approximately the minimum ice extent for that year as constructed from other, independent data; it has a non-beige halo around it presumably corresponding to thin &/or slushy ice.


The third gif is also for 2012. It displays only 2 maps, for 2012-06-25 and 2012-09-03.

This third gif is intended to give an idea of how well the beige region on yesterday's date but in 2012, 2012-06-25, predicted the final extent at the end of the 2012 melt season, c. 2012-09-03.

It's seen that in 2012, the 06-25 beige region was larger than the final extent & largely encompassed it.

Will we see that again this year?

Intriguingly, this year still has a large beige region in the [CORRECTED: Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS)] (see 2018-06-25 map - the last map of the first gif). Will any of that ice remain at the end of the 2018 melt season?

The possibility of ice remaining in the [CORRECTED: Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS)] at the end of this year's melt season could be considered a weak prediction from these CMOS maps.  :)


IGNORE THE COLOR LEGEND'S NUMERICAL SCALE & LABEL (the color order progression should be valid though) - DURING THE MELT SEASON THESE ARE NOT LEGITIMATE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS.

Click on gifs to view day sequences.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 02:34:11 PM by slow wing »

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1671 on: June 27, 2018, 06:12:19 AM »
Nice analysis slow-wing. The animation speed was too fast for me to determine independently the dates of appearance of widespread melting in both years, an important factor.
I think the bottom line says that this year is expected to have more ice by September than 2012. The specific location (Chukchi) is IMHO less important, as that ice is mobile, but I think it does give an indication of total melt momentum, to use Neven's favorite term.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1672 on: June 27, 2018, 07:54:46 AM »
Been reading an awful lot of speculation of the direction the "Melt season"  is headed. I am not a scientist, but an interested observer who has followed this forum for several years. My thoughts... The "Melt season" has a very, very long way to go.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1673 on: June 27, 2018, 09:56:09 AM »
June 22-26.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1674 on: June 27, 2018, 10:28:36 AM »
Laptev land fast ice breaking up.

Worldview terra/modis true color jun24-27

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1675 on: June 27, 2018, 10:30:39 AM »
June 22-26.

Interesting how well the Beaufort is holding up this year, considering there has been virtually no buffer-ice in the Bering or Chukchi.

As far as I have seen, there haven't been cold anomalies or any other obvious reasons to explain it. Same goes for the Kara.
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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1676 on: June 27, 2018, 12:20:42 PM »
Interesting how well the Beaufort is holding up this year, considering there has been virtually no buffer-ice in the Bering or Chukchi.

As far as I have seen, there haven't been cold anomalies or any other obvious reasons to explain it. Same goes for the Kara.
I think the Beaufort has a constant supply of ice drifting south. The Chukchi also had a round of export, but it's stopped and now the exported ice has largely melted.
As for the Kara, it started with anomalously high volume, which I think helps explains why it's so resilient.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1677 on: June 27, 2018, 12:45:54 PM »

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


Any particular reason for 150 years? There was a paper that got quite a lot of attention last year that I interpreted as finding this was on a 70-year cycle.

I through that out there basically against the ncep data that goes back that far and there being no comparable period with such a consistent summer dipole and -ao pattern.

Id love to see the papers findings tho.

This is the thread on the paper.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.0.html

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1678 on: June 27, 2018, 01:04:47 PM »
Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before.

Is that so? If yes, this is the most consistent and comprehensive explanation of what we are seeing this June.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 01:11:19 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1679 on: June 27, 2018, 01:47:31 PM »
Translucent ice disintegrating. Rapid melt momentum through the ESS building up.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1680 on: June 27, 2018, 09:09:31 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1681 on: June 27, 2018, 09:15:18 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

Would be good news. The Arctic and all of us need a break.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1682 on: June 27, 2018, 09:15:46 PM »
Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before.

Is that so? If yes, this is the most consistent and comprehensive explanation of what we are seeing this June.
Of course it is. Before everyone had refrigerated freezers they had iceboxes. The iceman would come once a week with a block. You' sprinkle some salt on it so it sat in a puddle of salty water. Presto: freezer. I think zero Fahrenheit is defined as the temp of equal weights of salt and water with ice floating in it isn't it?

The explanation that its meltponds where SMOS shows thin Ice during melt season may have been true in the past. But now it appears it may be our most accurate indication of actual concentration and area covered on a regional basis. The ice thickness bar might be actually fairly accurate as average ice thickness over an area of ocean that is a sprawling mess of floes and rubble. While other mor publicised and popular area and extent figures count open water gaps in the few hundred metre range as ice. SMOS just averages the distance between different polarisations from the surface and salinity horizon's over 40x40,km.
We have seen this week how several days of warm wet low level wind from the South made the pack between Svalbard and the pole look thicker on SMOS, when it most certainly was wetting the surface and melting it. Now a couple of days of northerlies in the area and the dispersion southwards gives the reverse:
(Thickness bar not indicating floe thickness accurately)
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1683 on: June 27, 2018, 09:28:11 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

Would be good news. The Arctic and all of us need a break.
That's a little hilarious in a dark kind of way. The anticlockwise circulation would throw all the mobile slush that is the CAB ice out to killzones that essentially now is the whole perimeter of the basin. And draw up the warm and salty stuff from the depths of the CAB to flush away any trace of a fresher water lid. The new thread might be
" melting finished and freezing season cancelled"
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Sterks

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1684 on: June 27, 2018, 10:34:32 PM »
Only that these guys know what they're talking about, they have experience.
In any case it is still beyond the D5 horizon of "anything can happen".

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1685 on: June 27, 2018, 10:45:50 PM »
@slow wing nice comparison.
This year is average in surface melt onset date and area, average in NH snow cover and does not stand out in current extent or volume, so seems we are headed for an on-trend 2010's September minimum, but you never know (until you know)

cesium62

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1686 on: June 27, 2018, 11:49:02 PM »
I think zero Fahrenheit is defined as the temp of equal weights of salt and water with ice floating in it isn't it?

I think Wikipedia somewhat disagrees:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fahrenheit

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1687 on: June 28, 2018, 12:57:33 AM »
Uni-hamburg amsr2 sea ice concentration (pacific side) for this melting season, Mar21-jun26
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 01:04:48 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1688 on: June 28, 2018, 07:35:47 AM »
Here is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity from 2014 - 2018 (July 1st used for 2014 as nearest reference date, click to animate). The major change we see this year is the Atlantification of the Barents sea. Regardless of how melting season progresses, my opinion is that this will affect freezing season next year greatly.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 08:52:48 AM by aperson »
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Pavel

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1689 on: June 28, 2018, 08:43:32 AM »
Eyeballing the Pacific side (today, the Chukchi sea is on the left-top) the ice pack looks so gray and thin that one can see the ocean through it. Definitely the melt momentum is rapid with no clouds

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1690 on: June 28, 2018, 08:43:38 AM »
Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before.

Is that so? If yes, this is the most consistent and comprehensive explanation of what we are seeing this June.
Of course it is. Before everyone had refrigerated freezers they had iceboxes. The iceman would come once a week with a block. You' sprinkle some salt on it so it sat in a puddle of salty water. Presto: freezer. I think zero Fahrenheit is defined as the temp of equal weights of salt and water with ice floating in it isn't it?

The explanation that its meltponds where SMOS shows thin Ice during melt season may have been true in the past. But now it appears it may be our most accurate indication of actual concentration and area covered on a regional basis. The ice thickness bar might be actually fairly accurate as average ice thickness over an area of ocean that is a sprawling mess of floes and rubble. While other mor publicised and popular area and extent figures count open water gaps in the few hundred metre range as ice. SMOS just averages the distance between different polarisations from the surface and salinity horizon's over 40x40,km.
We have seen this week how several days of warm wet low level wind from the South made the pack between Svalbard and the pole look thicker on SMOS, when it most certainly was wetting the surface and melting it. Now a couple of days of northerlies in the area and the dispersion southwards gives the reverse:
(Thickness bar not indicating floe thickness accurately)

That's utter rubbish.  There is almost no melt ever.

EVER

above 80N before July.

Any year.  Literally no ice loss.

This year is no exception. 

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1691 on: June 28, 2018, 09:47:20 AM »
Here is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity from 2014 - 2018 (July 1st used for 2014 as nearest reference date, click to animate). The major change we see this year is the Atlantification of the Barents sea. Regardless of how melting season progresses, my opinion is that this will affect freezing season next year greatly.

In your gifs, I also noted a large area of increased salinity north of Svalbard in 2018.
This means that the branch of the Gulf Stream that passes on the northern side of Svalbard apparently has become stronger this year.

http://www.arcticsystem.no/en/outsideworld/oceancurrents/

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1692 on: June 28, 2018, 12:03:01 PM »
Quote
That's utter rubbish.  There is almost no melt ever.

EVER

above 80N before July.

Any year.  Literally no ice loss.

This year is no exception. 

Report to moderator     Logged
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Really Frivz? Well Imb 97 had some. Even in the middle of a multi year floe almost 2m thick.
Notice how mid June bottom melting got going within 2 days of the air temperature approaching zero C? And before top melt?
With the rising salinity gradient in the very young ice we have now, not to mention the melt front being much nearer eighty north this year, wave action,  winds making a washing machine of the pack, and early high temps and moisture precipitation directly on the ice.
Gosh man. You can't be serious.

Oh..SMOS for the twenty seventh. What is that big patch from the pole towards the Atlantic. Is it meltponds despite two days of northerly wind crossing over a thousand km of ice from Russia? Is it dispersion southwards into the warm Atlantic waters blown into the pack by the previous couple of days of southeasters? Or is it really thin Ice?
Come on frivolous. You just can't have it both ways. Is it melt ponding north of eighty degrees, or a mobile slushy?
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 12:17:11 PM by Hyperion »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1693 on: June 28, 2018, 12:07:00 PM »
Where exactly was that buoy when bottom melting started?
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1694 on: June 28, 2018, 12:22:42 PM »
Quote
That's utter rubbish.  There is almost no melt ever.

EVER

above 80N before July.

Any year.  Literally no ice loss.

This year is no exception. 

Report to moderator     Logged
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun

Really Frivz? Well Imb 97 had some. Even in the middle of a multi year floe almost 2m thick.
Notice how mid June bottom melting got going within 2 days of the air temperature approaching zero C? And before top melt?
With the rising salinity gradient in the very young ice we have now, not to mention the melt front being much nearer eighty north this year, wave action,  winds making a washing machine of the pack, and early high temps and moisture precipitation directly on the ice.
Gosh man. You can't be serious.

I seem to remember you made a lot of similar doom and gloom “salty bottom melting and intermixing with freshwater lid” predictions in the buoy thread last year, saying we’d have a blue ocean event. Everyone said you were wrong. Because well, it was a too out there prediction. 2017 finished at 7th.

This is your second melting season, right? Mine as well. But you seem to be using Data thats unreliable in the way you are using it this year (SMOS for bottom melt, and Buoys for salinity) and get very defensive when anyone DARES challenge your high risk conjectures.

And the people challenging you are ones who have seen multiple melting seasons and have been more right than not as they have a better knowledge of how to read data.

Friv is one such highly respected member of this community, and you are being very rudely dismissive
of him.

In another post you claimed we’d have another ridiculously low finish this year. That would require multiple double century breaks in a row at this point. Something that won’t happen with the current extent and volume and forecast.

Gosh man. YOU can’t be serious.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1695 on: June 28, 2018, 12:23:20 PM »
You'll have to look it up on the CSV text file. Tried before but this fone  refuse to read it.
http://imb-crrel-dartmouth.org/imb.crrel/irid_data/2017B_clean.csv
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1696 on: June 28, 2018, 12:35:51 PM »
No Tetra. I have been deeply involved in the science for decades. I just come here for light relief. Things of great seriousness must be taken lightly after all. And of course to learn what I can from the genuine gurus that post here. Wish that more were less concerned with having the reputation for being right all the time. Personally I love to look like a fool. Best way to learn.
 And 2017 finished first for lowest deep keeled and multi year Ice by a long shot. Which is what counts. The Area and extent and volume modelling are not providing good comparison with past years IMHO.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1697 on: June 28, 2018, 12:47:07 PM »
Hyperion, I took Friv's comment as referring to top melt, but it seems you responded about bottom melt.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1698 on: June 28, 2018, 12:55:38 PM »
Somewhat frivolous claims about there being no melting in june north of 80 degrees - while there has been constant meltout along a 5-600 km long front some one or two degrees north of 80 all winter and still going strong.

I also seem to remember a map of melt ponds in Nevens blog from last year, showing melt ponds north of 80 degrees in May ....

Anyway, a (rare) clear-skies image from June 19th showing melt front at 82.3 degrees North, appr. 45 degrees east, does the ice have a blue tinge? Not sure.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1699 on: June 28, 2018, 01:30:35 PM »
Frivolous is just plain wrong about melting inside the 80ºN circle. Melting begins in late June as the classic DMI average shows. Below is the Terra WV 7-2-1 image that shows a darkening blue inside the 80ºN circle north of the Kara sea. It takes time to melt the snow away and for melt ponds to become visible but that's just what's happening on the European Atlantic side of the ice pack on 21 June of this year.