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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1800 on: July 01, 2018, 04:15:34 AM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record.

An additional point to make is that continental albedo feedbacks are also apparently most evident over the mountains of NE Siberia, which remain extremely snowy. Besides the areas below the protected Kara, that is the only negative departure vs. 2012.

This could be significant because rolling 2012 forward, the wildfires were spread broadly across Russia. Perhaps we could see a comparably scoped event this year given the expanse of our departures, but over a more focused geographic area. If the 2012 event's correlation with the GAC is worth anything, maybe this year's penultimate storm is going to impact much closer to the North Pole due to the position of resultant +500MB ridging / smoke over N Siberia / relatively lower potential 500MB anomalies over NE Siberia.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 04:49:55 AM by bbr2314 »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1801 on: July 01, 2018, 04:28:04 AM »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1802 on: July 01, 2018, 04:39:48 AM »


We CAN clearly see the difference.

The heat advection showed last night through the CAB was straight epic versus what it showed today
I got a nickname for all my guns
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1803 on: July 01, 2018, 04:50:51 AM »


We CAN clearly see the difference.

The heat advection showed last night through the CAB was straight epic versus what it showed today
Those are 850 maps and the surface is above 0. That is rain and a GAC. And by the time it verifies it'll be in the 970s or 960s. I would argue that shows even more heat than 00z it is just RESOLVING instead of lingering.

Like just a casual 974LP no big deal

« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 05:10:50 AM by bbr2314 »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1804 on: July 01, 2018, 05:24:39 AM »
the trough and front systems rolling along the Siberian coast are dragging in insanely warm air especially over the Laptev, which forecast to be up to 26C(!!!!) at 950hPa on Thursday, accompanied by serious rainbands, with much of the Laptev to see rain with one area seeing 40mm in the next 3 days. The low being drawn in drops to 972 as it heads for FJI and stays there  for a day or 2, drawing warmth from Siberia, and pushing the ice front into the Atlantic killing zone;

I haven't had a chance to read the discussion over the past few days, but I agree with bbr that the June weather hasn't been great for ice despite the slow extent loss

edit: I just had a look at the surface temperature forecast for thursday - still over 4 days away, but a prediction of 10C well onto the ice is pretty spectacular - just how quickly will that melt it?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 06:13:11 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1805 on: July 01, 2018, 05:40:20 AM »
Ice off Svalbard that has been pushed  half a degree south to its imminent doom - see the broad area of grey mush dissolving into skeins at the front. It's a beautiful image so I've included it at full 250m resolution, with a detail cropped from it

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1806 on: July 01, 2018, 06:32:55 AM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012.

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record. .
This melting season is far from dead IMHO, but to claim it has been the worst June on record?? Ice statistics tell a completely different sfory.
btw, why did you compare the years with a shift of 6 days?

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1807 on: July 01, 2018, 09:19:36 AM »
June 26-30.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1808 on: July 01, 2018, 09:57:56 AM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record.



Two points.  Firstly there are no direct observations of surface temperature in the arctic,  the output is not observational data, but a weather model output.

Secondly 19th to 28th of June is not all of June.  My reading of MODIS images is that the early part of June 2012 was much sunnier with lots more surface melting than we've seen this year, and then around the 21s a low pressure system moved in causing cloudy conditions in 2012 for much of your analysis period - and by the time the cloud cleared at the end of June a significantly dispersed pack was revealed and sunnier conditions early in July did a lot of damage on this weakened pack. 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1809 on: July 01, 2018, 10:10:44 AM »
As pointed out earlier in this thread, Nares is starting to show export from Lincoln again. See more in the Nares Strait thread:

The beginning of the end of the Kane Basin bridge.  DMI's Sentinel-1 today

Parry channel is also opening up. Yesterday's Worldview image shows a large crack near Resolute.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1810 on: July 01, 2018, 10:58:13 AM »
I put these three images together to help myself see how Atlantification might continue.  Plainly the abyssal shelf is where the Atlantic water takes a plunge, so I borrowed the first, bathymetric image from geology.com.  The second is the June 28 30m Salinity chart from Mercator Ocean (thanks Fish). And the third is the Bremen AMSR2 from June 29.  So, allow me a little room to hypothesize ladies and gentlemen, and possibly make a fool of myself ... 

....  But the Atlantification seems to be proceeding happily along the edge of the Barents Shelf, and so it seems that it could now proceed along the edge of the Kara Shelf.  That means, in future years, Severnaya Zemlya might be next. ( All this is roughly along 82N)  And that means, eventually, there will be early open water reaching to the Laptev Sea a body of water which seems to love to open up to form the Laptev Gap whenever it has a chance.

I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 11:12:45 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1811 on: July 01, 2018, 12:06:08 PM »
Today's state of the ice, strongly enhanced:

Note that the Canadian archipelago has been persistently blue for a prolonged time now, even in the not enhanced graphs – not the average year's situation there.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 12:13:28 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1812 on: July 01, 2018, 12:35:54 PM »
If that heat inflow over the ESS moves in later this week , that blue area is going to get much bigger. And that creates a big are of ice that can be gone pretty fast. That's only 50 cm thick , right ?

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1813 on: July 01, 2018, 01:23:34 PM »
2012 was expected before the GAC.

Many of us expected a new record low in area/extent by late June/early July.

We just didn't expect it to be so early and that rec record breaking

As the forum wasn't in existence then..

ASI 2012 update 7 (July 15th)

Quote
Two weeks have passed since the last ASI update. At the time the weather forecast for the Arctic showed things that pointed to a (possibly big) nosedive on sea ice extent and area charts. The forecast became even worse, showing a very big, very strong high-pressure area over the Beaufort Sea and low- pressure systems on the Siberian side of the Arctic. In other words, a hefty Dipole Anomaly, that we saw so much of in 2007.

But none of it came about. The weather forecast completely changed its tune and instead was showing a low-pressure area taking over things. Which did come about. So the nosedive didn't really live up to its weather forecast potential, and I was expecting a lull, a stalling, a levelling off of trends on graphs, but this hasn't really come about either! In the end nothing much has changed when it comes to the graphs in the past two weeks.

If the weather forecast had come about, 2012 would have undoubtedly taken a big lead, but as we say in Dutch: If my aunt had had a dick, she'd be my uncle! Instead, 2012 keeps steadily ploughing towards the minimum (two months from now), still battling it out with the big boys, apparently not much perturbed by atmospheric patterns that brought a stop to the 2010 and 2011 marches for melting season glory. Although that stop could still be coming about in the next week.

ASI 2012 update 8: it shouldn't, but it does (July28th)

Quote
I'm basically going to say the same thing as I did in the last ASI update: Weather patterns haven't been conducive to sea ice decrease, trend lines on graphs should be stalling, but they don't. As I've shown in yesterday's blog post comparing this year's weather patterns in June and July with previous record years, the decrease should have slowed down significantly like it did in 2010 and 2011, but it didn't. The 2012 SIE trend line shouldn't follow 2007 so closely, but it does. The 2012 SIA trend line shouldn't lead, but it does.

I would, perhaps, quantify 2018 as "It should but it doesn't.

ASI8 in 2012 was just a week before the GAC began and the season went on to its climatic finale.  However there had been a consistent build up of heat and a consistent melting of the ice where it was not exactly expected.

When I say we did not expect a huge record in 2012, I'm repeating what was said at the time.  The expectation was that we would get a 2007, ish, year with maybe more and maybe less.  Based on the fact that it was melting much like 2007 without the 2007 open skies stimulus.

This year we have neither the open skies, the extra heat, the extreme sst's nor the weather of 2007/2012.  What we do have is thinner ice,  an anomalously low 2017/18 winter and a fairly rapid start to the year.  But, then again, we had that in 2016 too.

July will be a pointer on the way.  August will be the real harbinger of the close of the season.  Time will tell.  But, so far, we have no single instance of conditions which drove the prior melt seasons to records.

Have a look at the Barrow cam, then look at the breakup forecast maps prior to 2012 (they stopped after that).



Since this forecast has ended, the breakup has trended lower even with lower levels of w/M2 input.  Due to thinner ice and warmer SST.

I've been watching the "weather" events and the late june melt ponding which has re-frozen after the clouds come back.  I've seen that before.

As I said, I'm here to be surprised as to what the arctic does next.  But, over the last >2 decades of watching, the ability to surprise has been reduced somewhat.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1814 on: July 01, 2018, 02:31:23 PM »
Windy ECMWF WAM wave forecast for wed jun4.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1815 on: July 01, 2018, 02:58:07 PM »
would this be a possible outcome for this melting season?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1816 on: July 01, 2018, 03:36:15 PM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

You post a one week temperature anomaly and compare this to a random single year and conclude that is clear evidence of a "severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. "

This is weather and I am really tired of this nonsense appearing on the 2018 Melting Season thread.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 03:44:14 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1817 on: July 01, 2018, 03:41:43 PM »
I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?

Aggressive melt?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1818 on: July 01, 2018, 03:44:42 PM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

You post a one week temperature anomaly and compare this to a random single year and conclude that is a "severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. "

This is weather and I am really tired of this nonsense appearing on the 2018 Melting Season thread.
Is it just weather? It wasn't just one week. The entire month of June has featured the same pattern. Parts of Quebec have averaged almost 20C colder this June than they did in June of 2012. I would call a 6-year change in summer temperatures of 20C across a 30 day period "apocalyptic" but I know people are still debating whether a "2C limit" on AGW is appropriate to prevent apocalyptic climate change so maybe we have different standards.  LOL

Oren: the comparison was the same period (6/19-28). ESRL maps are limited when you subtract one period from another to 20 days in all (so 10 from each year).

It is preposterous to me how people on this forum claim to believe in climate change etc but if you point out what is happening it is "omg enough of that be quiet this is a sea ice forum" as if the current situation had nothing to do with abrupt climate change. Perhaps this is why the liberals have no solution to the problem, they are even more ignorant than the conservatives who at least pretend it isn't happening in order to justify their stupidity.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 03:49:53 PM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1819 on: July 01, 2018, 03:48:06 PM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record.



Two points.  Firstly there are no direct observations of surface temperature in the arctic,  the output is not observational data, but a weather model output.

Secondly 19th to 28th of June is not all of June.  My reading of MODIS images is that the early part of June 2012 was much sunnier with lots more surface melting than we've seen this year, and then around the 21s a low pressure system moved in causing cloudy conditions in 2012 for much of your analysis period - and by the time the cloud cleared at the end of June a significantly dispersed pack was revealed and sunnier conditions early in July did a lot of damage on this weakened pack.
I would disagree with your second statement. I think this June was worse than 2012 mostly through the whole month. Unlike 2012, 2018 had much more snowfall to melt through.

The other difference with 2012 is there is much less ice to start with in the High Arctic. Now that we have gotten through the snow, the ice will go much quicker than it did that year (IMO).

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1820 on: July 01, 2018, 03:49:04 PM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

You post a one week temperature anomaly and compare this to a random single year and conclude that is a "severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. "

This is weather and I am really tired of this nonsense appearing on the 2018 Melting Season thread.
Is it just weather? It wasn't just one week. The entire month of June has featured the same pattern.

Oren: the comparison was the same period (6/19-28). ESRL maps are limited when you subtract one period from another to 20 days in all (so 10 from each year).

It is preposterous to me how people on this forum claim to believe in climate change etc but if you point out what is happening it is "omg enough of that be quiet this is a sea ice forum" as if the current situation had nothing to do with abrupt climate change. Perhaps this is why the liberals have no solution to the problem, they are even more ignorant than the conservatives who at least pretend it isn't happening in order to justify their stupidity.

This shit has no business being on the 2018 melt thread. None! I am tired of it.

There are other more scientific sites that track AGW which will keep me better informed.

Good luck everyone.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1821 on: July 01, 2018, 03:50:23 PM »
Hmmm... that makes things a little awkward for my hypothesis, doesn't it?  All I can point to is the fact that the current ice edge does parallel the Barents/Kara ice shelf edge, and does extend to the easternmost tip of FJL at present (see Bremen AMSR2 image and your original image below).

If I were to stretch my argument a little further (and maybe a bit too far) I would say that this area of colder water is an area where ice is melting actively at present, thus lowering the water temperatures to near freezing.  This argument seems to be pushing it a bit for the area west of FJL however.  Maybe a few more weeks of information and we will know a bit more?

 
I put these three images together to help myself see how Atlantification might continue.  Plainly the abyssal shelf is where the Atlantic water takes a plunge, so I borrowed the first, bathymetric image from geology.com.  The second is the June 28 30m Salinity chart from Mercator Ocean (thanks Fish). And the third is the Bremen AMSR2 from June 29.  So, allow me a little room to hypothesize ladies and gentlemen, and possibly make a fool of myself ... 

....  But the Atlantification seems to be proceeding happily along the edge of the Barents Shelf, and so it seems that it could now proceed along the edge of the Kara Shelf.  That means, in future years, Severnaya Zemlya might be next. ( All this is roughly along 82N)  And that means, eventually, there will be early open water reaching to the Laptev Sea a body of water which seems to love to open up to form the Laptev Gap whenever it has a chance.

I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1822 on: July 01, 2018, 03:53:50 PM »
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

You post a one week temperature anomaly and compare this to a random single year and conclude that is a "severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. "

This is weather and I am really tired of this nonsense appearing on the 2018 Melting Season thread.
Is it just weather? It wasn't just one week. The entire month of June has featured the same pattern.

Oren: the comparison was the same period (6/19-28). ESRL maps are limited when you subtract one period from another to 20 days in all (so 10 from each year).

It is preposterous to me how people on this forum claim to believe in climate change etc but if you point out what is happening it is "omg enough of that be quiet this is a sea ice forum" as if the current situation had nothing to do with abrupt climate change. Perhaps this is why the liberals have no solution to the problem, they are even more ignorant than the conservatives who at least pretend it isn't happening in order to justify their stupidity.

This shit has no business being on the 2018 melt thread. None! I am tired of it.

There are other more scientific sites that track AGW which will keep me better informed.

Good luck everyone.
Why are ESRL comparison maps of ACTUAL DATA VERSUS OTHER YEARS irrelevant to melt? Your temper tantrum is "irrelevant" analyzing abrupt climate change is not.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1823 on: July 01, 2018, 03:57:08 PM »
Let's stay on topic, please.

For now it looks as though there won't be as much melting momentum as there was in 2007, 2010 and 2012, which would mean it will take more weather for 2018 to end near record low levels. But the information we have, isn't perfect, and so I'd like to hold out. I hope to look more intently at May and June this week and thoroughly compare to previous years.

While looking at the weather forecast, of course.

This morning's ECMWF forecast has the cyclone at 975 hPa now, starting the day after tomorrow, which then de-intensifies and slowly moves towards the Beaufort, all the while surrounded by high pressure. If the high pressure above the Kara Sea comes about, it's a new region that receives a solar blast.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1824 on: July 01, 2018, 04:01:26 PM »
And just to be clear:

It is preposterous to me how people on this forum claim to believe in climate change etc but if you point out what is happening it is "omg enough of that be quiet this is a sea ice forum" as if the current situation had nothing to do with abrupt climate change. Perhaps this is why the liberals have no solution to the problem, they are even more ignorant than the conservatives who at least pretend it isn't happening in order to justify their stupidity.

If you make extraordinary claims, and have a history of doing so, you have absolutely no right to whine when people call you out on them. This is the fate of the Galileo (and of Bozo the clown, Carl Sagan would add).

I'm fine with the extraordinary claims, especially if you post maps and graphs to make your argument, but keep the barks to yourself.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1825 on: July 01, 2018, 04:03:38 PM »
Bbr, maybe it would help to more tightly define 'worse'.  Do you mean this past June saw the worst (largest) losses of sea ice volume (or extent, or area) on record?  (If so, there should be numbers to support that, and I have not seen them).  Or do you mean the weather conditions during June have been more extreme (more net inflow of heat, more total insolation, more fracturing of the ice through storms)?  (Again, some data should be available here.)  Or is it a general sense that given what we started with this June, more damage has been done to the ice in this month than any other?  (That leaves us in highly subjective territory).  Or something else?

 
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record.



Two points.  Firstly there are no direct observations of surface temperature in the arctic,  the output is not observational data, but a weather model output.

Secondly 19th to 28th of June is not all of June.  My reading of MODIS images is that the early part of June 2012 was much sunnier with lots more surface melting than we've seen this year, and then around the 21s a low pressure system moved in causing cloudy conditions in 2012 for much of your analysis period - and by the time the cloud cleared at the end of June a significantly dispersed pack was revealed and sunnier conditions early in July did a lot of damage on this weakened pack.
I would disagree with your second statement. I think this June was worse than 2012 mostly through the whole month. Unlike 2012, 2018 had much more snowfall to melt through.

The other difference with 2012 is there is much less ice to start with in the High Arctic. Now that we have gotten through the snow, the ice will go much quicker than it did that year (IMO).
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1826 on: July 01, 2018, 04:12:04 PM »
Thanks Shared Humanity .. I for one have appreciated your observations over the years including this last one . Can anyone tell me where the more scientifically oriented sites tracking AGW are ? The most appreciated posters certainly seem to be leaving here or reducing imput as speculation and fantasy dominate . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1827 on: July 01, 2018, 04:14:59 PM »
Bbr, maybe it would help to more tightly define 'worse'.  Do you mean this past June saw the worst (largest) losses of sea ice volume (or extent, or area) on record?  (If so, there should be numbers to support that, and I have not seen them).  Or do you mean the weather conditions during June have been more extreme (more net inflow of heat, more total insolation, more fracturing of the ice through storms)?  (Again, some data should be available here.)  Or is it a general sense that given what we started with this June, more damage has been done to the ice in this month than any other?  (That leaves us in highly subjective territory).  Or something else?

 
Here is 6/19-28 2018 minus 2012. I would call this severe abrupt and apocalyptic climate change. We have clearly hit an inflection point re: continental albedo and sea ice. Maybe the Mayans were right after all and this occurred in 2012?  :o

Also ^ data directly refutes the notion that the weather has been beneficial to the ice. It has been the worst June on record.



Two points.  Firstly there are no direct observations of surface temperature in the arctic,  the output is not observational data, but a weather model output.

Secondly 19th to 28th of June is not all of June.  My reading of MODIS images is that the early part of June 2012 was much sunnier with lots more surface melting than we've seen this year, and then around the 21s a low pressure system moved in causing cloudy conditions in 2012 for much of your analysis period - and by the time the cloud cleared at the end of June a significantly dispersed pack was revealed and sunnier conditions early in July did a lot of damage on this weakened pack.
I would disagree with your second statement. I think this June was worse than 2012 mostly through the whole month. Unlike 2012, 2018 had much more snowfall to melt through.

The other difference with 2012 is there is much less ice to start with in the High Arctic. Now that we have gotten through the snow, the ice will go much quicker than it did that year (IMO).
Worst in terms of surface air temperatures over the Arctic. I found monthly comparisons btw. Here is year to date versus 2012. June data should be in shortly.

2012 was a sprint, 2018 is a marathon.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1828 on: July 01, 2018, 05:13:57 PM »
BBR, your figure shows the atmospheric Rossby wave 1 pattern that's associated with El Niño events and Major Stratospheric Warmings. This has been an exceptional year with perhaps the strongest stratospheric warming on record in February. And we have seen pre-El Niño conditions since the stratospheric warming imparted momentum from the stratospheric polar vortex to the tropospheric jet stream. Climate change does have something to do with this years weird weather.

However, the dynamics of summer melting seasons has not been turned on its head by climate change. Every freaking time we have seen storminess on the north American side of the Arctic in May, June and July we have seen a slow down in Arctic sea ice melting. There are multiple reasons for that.

Reason 1 is that it's cold on the NA side when low pressure areas go there.

Reason 2 is that it's intensely cloudy so the ice gets short wave solar radiation.

Reason 3 is the disruption of the coastal upwelling which brings warm Atlantic layer water up from below along the Canadian and Alaskan shelves. When low pressure areas move over the ice north of Canada, cold icy water stored in the Beaufort gyre spreads outwards stifling coastal upwelling.

This year is very weird and very interesting but available data show the melt season slowing or stalling every time a cyclone crosses to the north American side of the pole. This time will be no different if it happens as forecast.

There are reams of papers on line and there are a number of web sites by scientists that discuss the Arctic. We should make use of those papers and those web sites before making wild assertions.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66616



Figure 1. Late summer FWCL distribution characteristics. Colors and contours show BG region FWCL (m) relative to salinity 34.8. Black numbers in white boxes show regional summer FWC volume (km3) for each year. Black dots show locations of CTD data used for the analysis. Gray-colored pixels depict areas where FWCL error of interpolation exceeds 2 m.

In order to analyze interannual changes in the volume of the liquid component of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre region (Fresh Water Content Liquid, FWCL) we have used results from BG summer observations at repeat CTD and XCTD stations in conjunction with all other available mooring and drifter data from the cruise times. The FWCL was calculated for all years relative to reference salinity 34.8 and then gridded employing optimal interpolation (see Proshutinsky et al., 2009 for details). While during 2003–2004 FWCL in the BGR showed little change (Figure 1), in 2005 the total FWCL in the region began to increase, reaching 20,000 km3 in 2007. The maximum annual trend of FWCL accumulation was observed at the new center of the BG (which was first established in the 1990s, see also section “Decadal changes”) with a rate of approximately 1.5 m per year in the center and tapering away with increasing radius (Figure 2). Preliminary data from the BGOS 2008 cruise indicate that the FWCL in the BG continued to rise in 2008 and reached 21,000 km3, a historical maximum from all available years of observations. Compared to 1970s climatology (the pre-1990s decade with the most extensive data coverage) there has been a FWCL increase in the BG of approximately 5000 km3. This is comparable with the volume of freshwater annually delivered to the Arctic Ocean by rivers and through Bering Strait (5700 km3 per year [Serreze et al., 2006]). The major cause of FWC increase in the BG region is Ekman pumping which has been increasing gradually since 2003 with absolute maximum in 2007 (Figure 3).

Low pressure on the Canadian/Alaskan side of the Arctic ocean causes Ekman pumping near the center of the track of the low pressure area on the side of the low where the winds were the strongest. High pressure in that region causes Ekman pumping of warm Atlantic water along the margins of the continental shelf. That's one of the main reasons that strong high pressure over the Arctic in the summer months leads to a low September sea ice extent.

This September is not likely to see a record or near record low extent because warmth on the Siberian side of the Arctic ocean is insufficient to bring up the warm water on the Canadian and Alaskan side of the Arctic as we saw in 2007 and 2012.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 05:37:05 PM by FishOutofWater »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1829 on: July 01, 2018, 05:26:52 PM »
Looks like fires are now spreading across much of Siberia, right on cue:


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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1830 on: July 01, 2018, 05:47:19 PM »
Looks like fires are now spreading across much of Siberia, right on cue:
Exactly - right on cue.

Have you data to show that this is so very different from previous years? (and if so, post the link)
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1831 on: July 01, 2018, 06:16:50 PM »
A quick examination on Worldview shows that Siberian smoke was more opaque and covered a larger area on July 1 2012 and 2016.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1832 on: July 01, 2018, 06:36:59 PM »
I thought you were making the claim of June 2018 being worse than any previous June on the record.  If you are saying June 2018 is the worst ever, then I think it best to wait until the data are in. 

As to using surface air temperatures over the arctic as the defining measure -- is that not just one measure of how 'bad' a month is?  Surface sea temperatures, insolation, albedo and other factors all contribute significantly to ice loss.  And while ice is melting, a lot of energy is absorbed locally and air temperatures cannot be expected to rise much, if at all. 
     
Bbr, maybe it would help to more tightly define 'worse'.  Do you mean this past June saw the worst (largest) losses of sea ice volume (or extent, or area) on record?  (If so, there should be numbers to support that, and I have not seen them).  Or do you mean the weather conditions during June have been more extreme (more net inflow of heat, more total insolation, more fracturing of the ice through storms)?  (Again, some data should be available here.)  Or is it a general sense that given what we started with this June, more damage has been done to the ice in this month than any other?  (That leaves us in highly subjective territory).  Or something else?
Worst in terms of surface air temperatures over the Arctic. I found monthly comparisons btw. Here is year to date versus 2012. June data should be in shortly.

2012 was a sprint, 2018 is a marathon.

« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 06:57:52 PM by Pagophilus »
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1833 on: July 01, 2018, 06:56:46 PM »
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection



But not before a prior GAC D5-6! (it merges with another low and re-strengthens over the CAB D 7-8-9-10)



While 2M temps are going to be very warm and result in lots of rain, 500MB heights are going to be dropping precipitously with the center of the GAC reaching below 500DM:


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1834 on: July 01, 2018, 07:18:42 PM »
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection

mega-death-CAB-vortex. Beyond hyperbole

Hyperbole :- early 15c., from Latin hyperbole, from Greek hyperbole "exaggeration, extravagance,"

But don't be modest or shy. What about "apocalypse now", armageddon and other such scientific terms?

You are damaging the forum. Give it a rest.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1835 on: July 01, 2018, 07:56:08 PM »
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection

Looks like GEM has pretty strong consensus on this event between runs (Attachment 1; click to animate). The ECMWF is definitely showing the same "mega-death-CAB-vortex" (Attachment 2)




Quit. Posting. D5+. Non-Ensemble. Runs.

Unless you have a good bearing on what synoptics are causing an event after D5 or what the spread is, quit posting models outside of that range and talking about them like they have any bearing on reality.

In tropicaltidbits you can press up-arrow and down-arrow to cycle between previous runs. I recommend doing this regularly to get an idea of what the model uncertainty is at a given range. It should make it clear how dangerous unqualified predictions are after D5.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1836 on: July 01, 2018, 08:03:58 PM »
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection

Looks like GEM has pretty strong consensus on this event between runs (Attachment 1; click to animate). The ECMWF is definitely showing the same "mega-death-CAB-vortex" (Attachment 2)

Quit. Posting. D5+. Non-Ensemble. Runs.

Unless you have a good bearing on what synoptics are causing an event after D5 or what the spread is, quit posting models outside of that range and talking about them like they have any bearing on reality.

In tropicaltidbits you can press up-arrow and down-arrow to cycle between previous runs. I recommend doing this regularly to get an idea of what the model uncertainty is at a given range. It should make it clear how dangerous unqualified predictions are after D5.
You are the one who is posting D10 runs. I included D5 and a description through D10. It doesn't appear at D10, it starts well before then, but your comparison is apples to oranges. I will, however, lay off on hyperbole moving forward.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1837 on: July 01, 2018, 08:06:43 PM »
GFS @ 180hr


CMC @ 198 hr



00z EURO @ 168hr



There is clearly going to be some kind of event, the models are struggling with timing and positioning as is to be expected at this range. The EURO has been far too progressive and is likely going to correct, the CMC may be too deep and drawn out, and it appears the GFS may be the middle ground. Now we await 12z EURO!

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1838 on: July 01, 2018, 08:10:06 PM »
Last year the melt seemed to be north of Russia.  This year it seems to be in the Archipelago.  In the U.S. there is a well-known see-saw between the East and West coasts.  Are we seeing the same sort of thing in the Arctic?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1839 on: July 01, 2018, 08:26:20 PM »
Looks like today was the day for Nares:


Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1840 on: July 01, 2018, 08:35:49 PM »
EC 12z op forecast has the first low to 975 hpa and the other cyclone down to 971 hpa. Yes, this is going to be a wild week ahead!


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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1841 on: July 01, 2018, 08:37:12 PM »
I put these three images together to help myself see how Atlantification might continue.  Plainly the abyssal shelf is where the Atlantic water takes a plunge, so I borrowed the first, bathymetric image from geology.com.  The second is the June 28 30m Salinity chart from Mercator Ocean (thanks Fish). And the third is the Bremen AMSR2 from June 29.  So, allow me a little room to hypothesize ladies and gentlemen, and possibly make a fool of myself ... 

....  But the Atlantification seems to be proceeding happily along the edge of the Barents Shelf, and so it seems that it could now proceed along the edge of the Kara Shelf.  That means, in future years, Severnaya Zemlya might be next. ( All this is roughly along 82N)  And that means, eventually, there will be early open water reaching to the Laptev Sea a body of water which seems to love to open up to form the Laptev Gap whenever it has a chance.

I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?


In response to the emboldened part I'm not sure if this helps but I want to point out an observation I have made which is that this seems to happen pretty much every year without exception. The region near Svalbard seems to be a cold spot in the summer for some reason. I've no idea why but I'm not sure it is anything to do with weather conditions this year.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1842 on: July 01, 2018, 08:39:33 PM »
I put these three images together to help myself see how Atlantification might continue.  Plainly the abyssal shelf is where the Atlantic water takes a plunge, so I borrowed the first, bathymetric image from geology.com.  The second is the June 28 30m Salinity chart from Mercator Ocean (thanks Fish). And the third is the Bremen AMSR2 from June 29.  So, allow me a little room to hypothesize ladies and gentlemen, and possibly make a fool of myself ... 

....  But the Atlantification seems to be proceeding happily along the edge of the Barents Shelf, and so it seems that it could now proceed along the edge of the Kara Shelf.  That means, in future years, Severnaya Zemlya might be next. ( All this is roughly along 82N)  And that means, eventually, there will be early open water reaching to the Laptev Sea a body of water which seems to love to open up to form the Laptev Gap whenever it has a chance.

I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?


In response to the emboldened part I'm not sure if this helps but I want to point out an observation I have made which is that this seems to happen pretty much every year without exception. The region near Svalbard seems to be a cold spot in the summer for some reason. I've no idea why but I'm not sure it is anything to do with weather conditions this year.
I believe it is because it is the coldest saline open water in the Arctic due to Atlantification. With a constant supply for ice melt it becomes one of the only spots where surface temps are consistently held below freezing.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1843 on: July 01, 2018, 08:54:59 PM »
@bbr2314

just a little remark not referring to any details:

every warmer than average spot during a melting (and freezing) season is neighboured by a colder than average spot, they are just not always in the same spot (some of them are but not many) hence we can find each melting season places which are much colder while at the same time others are much warmer and there are more warmer spots or the warmer spots are covering a larger area which over all leads to higher global temps.

i'm not convinced whether it's worth to mention and excessively discuss each of those variations each season and pointing out where this or another year was warmer or colder in a given area.
i said i'm not convinced, means i'm open to reasoning but over all it has a touch of uselessness, a personal opinion. ( the same applies in some way to the melting process, one year it's ESS and the other year it's beaufort etc that melt earlier and/or faster) it has to do with weather patterns probably as well as ocean currents, i.e. where the ice is piled up during the winter or how much is exported.

to others i who feel similar i'd suggest a less condescending way to submit their opinion because it will trigger less opposing energy ( Despite Behaviour) and those are even more off topic posts than are those criticised this in addition to the negative energy spread over the place.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1844 on: July 01, 2018, 09:13:16 PM »
Thank you for this.  I may be mistaken, but I thought that gerontocrat was referring to colder (blue) areas on the image just east of FJL and also in the north Kara Sea.  Perhaps the area between FJL and Svalbard has been a cold spot in the past, and this cold area may be what you are referring to -- I just don't have the experience to know.  I have appended a small part of the original image below, with the colder (blue) area in the middle.  Was the area you recall east or west (or north or south etc) of Svalbard?   

I took gerontocrat to be suggesting that this blue patch does not look like warm Atlantic waters, and therefore not Atlantification.   I and several others have suggested it may be there because ice is actively melting in the area.  I think that idea is feasible, but I am being a bit careful because that could also be a convenient justification of my hypothesis.

I guess one way to 'check' would be to look at the situation three or four years ago -- was the temperature pattern we see now at the start of July present further east, around Svalbard?

I put these three images together to help myself see how Atlantification might continue.  Plainly the abyssal shelf is where the Atlantic water takes a plunge, so I borrowed the first, bathymetric image from geology.com.  The second is the June 28 30m Salinity chart from Mercator Ocean (thanks Fish). And the third is the Bremen AMSR2 from June 29.  So, allow me a little room to hypothesize ladies and gentlemen, and possibly make a fool of myself ... 

....  But the Atlantification seems to be proceeding happily along the edge of the Barents Shelf, and so it seems that it could now proceed along the edge of the Kara Shelf.  That means, in future years, Severnaya Zemlya might be next. ( All this is roughly along 82N)  And that means, eventually, there will be early open water reaching to the Laptev Sea a body of water which seems to love to open up to form the Laptev Gap whenever it has a chance.

I noticed recently on cci-reanalyzer a persistent strip of cold temperatures from Svalbard to Franz Jose land to the Russian shore, that will persist for another week or so. It seems close to  the "Atlantification frontier" of the Barents?


In response to the emboldened part I'm not sure if this helps but I want to point out an observation I have made which is that this seems to happen pretty much every year without exception. The region near Svalbard seems to be a cold spot in the summer for some reason. I've no idea why but I'm not sure it is anything to do with weather conditions this year.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 09:28:17 PM by Pagophilus »
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1845 on: July 01, 2018, 09:18:32 PM »
bbr, I am not looking to pile it on, but in fairness to aperson that sure looked like a D10 run that you led with ...
 
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection

Looks like GEM has pretty strong consensus on this event between runs (Attachment 1; click to animate). The ECMWF is definitely showing the same "mega-death-CAB-vortex" (Attachment 2)

Quit. Posting. D5+. Non-Ensemble. Runs.
You are the one who is posting D10 runs. I included D5 and a description through D10. It doesn't appear at D10, it starts well before then, but your comparison is apples to oranges. I will, however, lay off on hyperbole moving forward.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 09:24:23 PM by Pagophilus »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1846 on: July 01, 2018, 09:20:54 PM »
<snip>
For now it looks as though there won't be as much melting momentum as there was in 2007, 2010 and 2012, which would mean it will take more weather for 2018 to end near record low levels. But the information we have, isn't perfect, and so I'd like to hold out. I hope to look more intently at May and June this week and thoroughly compare to previous years.

While looking at the weather forecast, of course.

This morning's ECMWF forecast has the cyclone at 975 hPa now, starting the day after tomorrow, which then de-intensifies and slowly moves towards the Beaufort, all the while surrounded by high pressure. If the high pressure above the Kara Sea comes about, it's a new region that receives a solar blast.
It was suggested elsewhere that the coming cyclone(s) would pull cold air into the Beaufort. ECMWF really doesn't show that until WAY ahead - like +240 hours. 

Until then, and specifically in the next 96-120 hours, it does show very considerable heat in the region, along with (via Climate Reanalyzer) considerable precipitation in the form of rain.

Prior to that, the pulse of heat and rain will hit the ESS, Chukchi and eastern Laptev very hard indeed.

We may not see a record low this year, but the ice is still taking a serious pounding.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1847 on: July 01, 2018, 09:29:32 PM »
Looks like today was the day for Nares:


It looks like the impact of "no Fram" due to warmth will imminently entail the re-opening of Nares for export. Massive cracking extending towards it as of yesterday. Probably won't take much to break the arch and start early transport of MYI toward Baffin.

Some self awareness of previous predictions would be welcome

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1848 on: July 01, 2018, 09:31:16 PM »
Looks like today was the day for Nares:


It looks like the impact of "no Fram" due to warmth will imminently entail the re-opening of Nares for export. Massive cracking extending towards it as of yesterday. Probably won't take much to break the arch and start early transport of MYI toward Baffin.

Some self awareness of previous predictions would be welcome
Looks like I was right. Thanks for the confirmation!

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #1849 on: July 01, 2018, 09:33:23 PM »
Addendum to my last... there is an awful lot of moisture either in or heading towards the Arctic.  There may not be sun blasting down or generally above average temperatures, but the latent heat in that air in considerable.
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