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NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2100 on: July 10, 2018, 09:17:19 PM »
Given the compactness figures 2018 is about 8% below last year, so without any further melting a reversion to last year's value would result in a drop of extent by ~500,000 km^2!  There's a lot that could still happen, the area drop in the Central Arctic which is ongoing causes me concern.

Assuming that the compactness has not been affected by melt ponding masquerading as open water.

If we've had extensive melt ponding in June, then the instances of larger melt ponds being counted as open water will be correspondingly higher.  Normally, by the end of June, they have drained and we have a clearer picture.

It's clear that we had extensive melt ponding in both the NW passage and ESS during June, areas which have returned to solid ice afterwards.

It certainly looks like there will be extensive loss in extent in July, simply by the outlying ice finally melting out due to normal warming.  Whether that becomes extensive pull back from the coast where we have landlocked ice, or not, is something we will have to wait and see.

Right now the NSIDC Chartic shows 2018 trending towards 2SD territory within the next two weeks and dropping below 2015 in the next week or so.

More waiting.  But I am very interested in the NW passage, CAA and ESS ice which looked like it was a goner, only to rebound as clear solid ice on the Bremen maps.

If you take a very vertical view, it does look very good for the ice.  If you take a more horizontal view, then it looks a lot worse.

But the point is this.  If we reach August and are hovering around 2SD on NSIDC extent, then August doesn't have enough heat to make massive changes.  Storms, on the other hand, are an entirely different thing.

Latest sunspot data for the last month.  It may not be a big change, however, as things are in the Arctic, it is now sensitive to even small changes in input.

#                         Sunspot       Stanford GOES15
#           Radio  SESC     Area          Solar  X-Ray  ------ Flares ------
#           Flux  Sunspot  10E-6   New     Mean  Bkgd    X-Ray      Optical
#  Date     10.7cm Number  Hemis. Regions Field  Flux   C  M  X  S  1  2  3
#---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018 06 10   70      0        0      0    -999   A1.0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 11   70      0        0      0    -999   A2.3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 12   70     12       10      1    -999   A2.6   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 13   71     16       60      0    -999   A3.0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 14   72     16       30      0    -999   A2.7   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 15   71     13       10      0    -999   A2.5   0  0  0  1  0  0  0
2018 06 16   71     13       10      0    -999   A2.1   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 17   71     15       20      0    -999   A2.5   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 18   74     28       20      1    -999   A3.5   0  0  0  1  0  0  0
2018 06 19   77     41       80      1    -999   A5.1   0  0  0  2  0  0  0
2018 06 20   82     54      180      0    -999   A8.1   0  0  0  9  0  0  0
2018 06 21   82     41      190      0    -999   A8.5   1  0  0  1  0  0  0
2018 06 22   80     41      180      0    -999   A9.3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 23   77     34      190      0    -999   A9.3   0  0  0  4  0  0  0
2018 06 24   75     16      100      0    -999   B1.0   0  0  0  2  0  0  0
2018 06 25   73     14       40      0    -999   A6.4   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 26   71     12       20      0    -999   A3.8   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 27   70      0        0      0    -999   A2.9   0  0  0  1  0  0  0
2018 06 28   70      0        0      0    -999   A2.2   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 29   69      0        0      0    -999   A1.8   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 06 30   69      0        0      0    -999   A1.5   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 01   68      0        0      0    -999   A1.4   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 02   67      0        0      0    -999   A1.5   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 03   68      0        0      0    -999   A1.4   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 04   68      0        0      0    -999   A1.0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 05   68      0        0      0    -999   A0.0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 06   71      0        0      0    -999   A1.8   1  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 07   72      0        0      0    -999   A3.7   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 08   72      0        0      0    -999   A3.7   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
2018 07 09   73      0        0      0    -999   A3.2   0  0  0  0  0  0  0
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2101 on: July 10, 2018, 11:19:59 PM »
Again the blue areas made progress in the enhanced graph. The ice could get again that arrow-like structure pointing towards the Atlantic as it did in 2015 before the GAC hit. The persistence of the bluish areas hints toward a continuous melt there and not to some capricious coloring due to weather patterns.

now i look at the colors north of barrows, look at the webcam of barrows and then apply similar conditions to regions with the same color. just hoping that this approach is totally wrong because if that's how it is it would be horrible.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2102 on: July 10, 2018, 11:21:19 PM »
Given the compactness figures 2018 is about 8% below last year, so without any further melting a reversion to last year's value would result in a drop of extent by ~500,000 km^2!  There's a lot that could still happen, the area drop in the Central Arctic which is ongoing causes me concern.

I second that without crying wolf. The Arctic seems to be weaker by each year as also the new compactness record for the date is showing. But I think there must happen something extraordinary to kick off a dramatic melt that would make that totally obvious.

what you say +1

it is as bad as many think it is but it's not yet totally obvious
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2103 on: July 10, 2018, 11:57:06 PM »
The Arctic cyclone last week passed over the only ITP buoy working this year.  It did register a small
.4 degree jump in Sea Surface temperature and a contemporaneous jump in salinity down to ~ 10 meters. The effects are short lived as conditions are currently returning to those before the little GAC.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=160136
See ITP T/S contours

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2104 on: July 11, 2018, 02:44:08 AM »
Something I may start posting over the next few weeks, as I think it may be pretty key - accumulated precipitation.

Here's the outlook from today through midnight Friday.  Most of what's showing up here is rain, as much as 2CM, outside from that falling in a smallish area near the pole offset to the western side of the Arctic.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2105 on: July 11, 2018, 02:55:03 AM »
Something I may start posting over the next few weeks, as I think it may be pretty key - accumulated precipitation.

I think accumulated absolute humidity might be a better total measure, but precipitation sounds easier to deal with.

CO2 is the trigger.  H2O is the bullet.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2106 on: July 11, 2018, 03:49:40 AM »
And what about the heat that is imported over land, on the Siberian side. They had some rain, and there are plenty big and small rivers. And even during the night the temperature did not drop below 10 degree C at many places and 20 + degree C during the day. And the difference in hight is probably not so much. So it will flow slowly, it has time to warm up. But i have no idea about the volumes, so i don't know if it's significant. How much rain do they have in Siberia ?
First of all, you would have to show, that this years temperatures in Siberia are actually significantly higher than what we typically see. I would guess that they are not. Sure, June was hot in many regions in Siberia (but it is hot there in many years), but over the last 3 months, the temperatures were not extraordinary:


Second, snow cover was above average in siberia and even now (despite the hot days in june) there is still more snow cover or ice-covered lakes there as compared e.g. with 2016. And river temperature can very well be below average when there is more snow to melt, even if air temperature is above average.

Overall, I don't think that the water temperature from Siberian rivers is so much higher than in other years, that this will make a difference in respect to September minimum sea ice extent.

If you look at all the coastal land around the Arctic - regardless if it is in the CAA, on the Alaskan north slope or on the Siberian side - you see, that the lakes are longer frozen e.g. as compared to 2016 and that the ground is/was longer snow covered than compared to 2016. That tells me, that there was a) more snow than 2016 and/or b) lower temperatures as in 2016. In any case that will not help getting a lower sea ice minimum.

North western Siberia  adjacent to the Laptev sea etc is showing a +2-4C anomaly in the map you posted (As is the ESS).. I would consider that significant over a 3 month timeframe.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2107 on: July 11, 2018, 04:09:28 AM »
Looking at various reanalysis maps the only areas relevant to us with significant cold anomalies have been the peripheral seas which are slow to melt this year(Kara, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay) and the region south of the Kara sea around the Urals and Ob catchment, where the Arctic has been regularly 'exhaling' its cold for many months now. North of Greenland has managed to stay normally cold, and everywhere else is warmer than average NOAA's global maps(absolute departures from average, and percentiles) for May illustrates this general picture,

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2108 on: July 11, 2018, 04:19:48 AM »
All of the Beaufort Sea Ice, extending into the CAB, is broken up and spreading. Most of it is small to tiny flows, and all 'big blocks' are at the southern end. Here is what was at around 80N, 153W yesterday. I wonder what it will look like it 30 days

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2109 on: July 11, 2018, 07:37:34 AM »
There are intriguing swirls of brown ice along the Siberian coast. The tongue along the Chukotka coast went really dark as it melted out. It's hard to see much of the ice around Wrangel Island at the moment but it doesn't seem like it willlast much longer - this is an area south west of it on 11 july worldview

Jaxa has gone back to very small losses, 20K and 50K in the past 2 days. We're going to see some big single day drops at some point if this goes on much longer, even if the minimum ends up on the high side
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 08:49:22 AM by subgeometer »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2110 on: July 11, 2018, 08:14:54 AM »
July 6-10.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2111 on: July 11, 2018, 08:16:51 AM »
Something I may start posting over the next few weeks, as I think it may be pretty key - accumulated precipitation.

Here's the outlook from today through midnight Friday.  Most of what's showing up here is rain, as much as 2CM, outside from that falling in a smallish area near the pole offset to the western side of the Arctic.

That would be interesting. And like i see it, and i hope i don't go to far off-topic. There is already substantial more rain than dozens of years ago. The article below tells that North of 60 N the temperature rises twice as fast as the average. And average is something like 1,5 degree C. That means 3 degree C extra for the area North of 60 N. If it includes the summer months. And another article was telling that for every degree C you get 7 % more rain. That's 20 % more rain, most of it in the last 40 years.

https://wxclimonews.com/2018/07/02/extreme-heat-event-in-northern-siberia-and-the-coastal-arctic-ocean-this-week/

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2112 on: July 11, 2018, 08:23:13 AM »
Looks like the entire pack moved in the same direction. Is that the work of the cyclone ?

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2113 on: July 11, 2018, 09:54:02 AM »
Every time the pack shifts towards the Pacific side extent stalls. The winds strongly affect the melting season outcome. The classic dipole, mostly absent this season, has the movement from the Pacific side towards the Atlantic.
What I'm wondering about is the late refreeze and early melt of the Bering and Chukchi - what effect it might have. The open water must be pretty warm and supposedly should have eaten any ice thrown at it, like the Atlantic killing zone at the other side. However the ice exported into the Chukchi takes a lot of time to melt out. Maybe it has to do with the chain of old thick floes A-Team was showing us stringing along throughout the winter from the CAA all the way to Wrangel Island.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2114 on: July 11, 2018, 10:49:23 AM »
Every time the pack shifts towards the Pacific side extent stalls. ... The open water must be pretty warm and supposedly should have eaten any ice thrown at it, like the Atlantic killing zone at the other side. However the ice exported into the Chukchi takes a lot of time to melt out. Maybe it has to do with the chain of old thick floes A-Team was showing us stringing along throughout the winter from the CAA all the way to Wrangel Island.

I get the feeling that this year the loose ice cover is soon starting to overstretch. Bering is now ripping open and the CA area close to Chuckchi might follow. We don't exactly know how much bottom melt was going on everywhere. Luckily, if there don't come significant changes within the next three weeks, the ice will be saved – once again. Until the next 2007/2012 event which will bring the next big downward step. And it could still happen within this decade.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2115 on: July 12, 2018, 12:46:36 AM »
Kara's late melt-out could have increasingly severe implications for sensible Arctic weather, IMO. This is due to both its impressive endurance and the worsening of relative anomalies in nearby regions.



As HYCOM illustrates, temperatures in the Baltic and anything adjacent to Scandinavia are now soaring. The surge of warmth in the NATL now appears to be traversing the UK / Iceland and making its way north at the same time as the summer sun is bearing down on an +GHG enhanced atmosphere without the benefit of any residual snowcover.

Combined with the extant icecover in the southern Kara, this will soon result (if it hasn't already) in the worst-ever temperature differential between the southern Kara and the adjacent waters of the NATL / nearby Baltic Sea.

I would expect this contrast (alongside the worsening gradients in Laptev and the Pac / ATL fronts in general) to spark increasingly severe cyclonic activity as we head towards autumn. But it may be worth keeping an eye out for the region in between Kara & Scandinavia for something truly epic this year, and if it does happen, it would likely have a substantive impact on the rest of the ATL front as well (beyond resolving the Kara anomalies).

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2116 on: July 12, 2018, 01:40:32 AM »
All of the brown Pacific ice is about to cave spectacularly. According to Copernicus (and confirmed by satellite) the split w ESS is now beginning to pick up pace. By 7/20 the connecting ice should be below 50% concentration and approaching 0 thickness.

The below map uses 1M as an upper bound. I think it gives a decent idea of what the final outline will look like this year. Still too aggressive with melt in the lower seas like Kara.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2117 on: July 12, 2018, 11:32:16 AM »
All of the brown Pacific ice is about to cave spectacularly. According to Copernicus (and confirmed by satellite) the split w ESS is now beginning to pick up pace. By 7/20 the connecting ice should be below 50% concentration and approaching 0 thickness.

While the tendency to me seems to be right, I still think we are about two weeks late for that scenario to become dramatic. Another year with worse weather conditions though might bring about something like that. The Ice won't recover in the years to come but the contrary ...
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2118 on: July 12, 2018, 12:27:55 PM »
Having a review of the 10 day sequence on the Utqiaġvik Barrow sea ice webcam is enlightening.

Have a look at the snow that fell in the middle of the sequence and the length of time it protected the ice before it was melted off again.  It went of the land within 24 hours but took much longer to melt on the ice.  In fact it is still present even at the end of the sequence today.

This is a Pacific side showing extreme reluctance to melt.  So far.

We need to reset our expectations somewhat for the moment.  After the winter and early spring season it was normal to think that the later spring and early summer would continue the trend.  Expectations of an early opening of the main channel of the NW passage and for the ESS to collapse and the periphery to vanish under extreme heat were not far fetched.

However smack in the middle of summer, where we stand today, these expectations are unlikely to be met within the next two weeks unless we get a succession of storms which are beneficial to melting.

They are, however, quite possible by the end of August.

Almost certainly the season will end with a post 2012 melt signature, the ice is too thin and fractured to do anything else.  Whether it will suddenly collapse and withdraw into the CAB in a sudden and inexplicable, explosion of melting?  Not likely.  Not impossible, but the heat is simply not in the CAB at this time.



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FredBear

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2119 on: July 12, 2018, 01:17:35 PM »
I think that precipitation high in clouds often starts frozen, melting to rain as it falls. this cools the atmosphere below until it cannot melt any more by the time it hits the ground --> snow. The ground may still be warm enough to melt more but the ice in the sea is already at 0C (or below because of the salt water) so it it whitens that more rapidly.
The ice at Barrow varies in albedo (dust from roads darkens it nearby) but I wonder if moisture from the air can still condense on the surface as frost (from mists, etc.).
P.S. The roads in Barrow darken in streaks sometimes, presumably there is a vehicle spraying them to reduce the dust - this must decrease the albedo and provide more humidity locally.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2120 on: July 12, 2018, 02:26:42 PM »
I think that precipitation high in clouds often starts frozen, melting to rain as it falls. this cools the atmosphere below until it cannot melt any more by the time it hits the ground --> snow. The ground may still be warm enough to melt more but the ice in the sea is already at 0C (or below because of the salt water) so it it whitens that more rapidly.
The ice at Barrow varies in albedo (dust from roads darkens it nearby) but I wonder if moisture from the air can still condense on the surface as frost (from mists, etc.).
P.S. The roads in Barrow darken in streaks sometimes, presumably there is a vehicle spraying them to reduce the dust - this must decrease the albedo and provide more humidity locally.
That isn't how snow works...

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2121 on: July 12, 2018, 04:21:51 PM »
On the "smoking" part: Point taken.
But when something is clearly nonsense/bullshit/[insert-word-of-your-liking], it is not rude to call it that IMO, its just the truth. You could also say it is plain wrong, but that is essentially the same. And that it is wrong, was said multiple times, and I would say "nonsense", "bintroll" or "willfully ignorant" isn't the most polite thing either. In Germany there is a saying "Wie man in den Wald hineinruft, so schallt es heraus", which would be literally translated "As you shout into the woods, so it shouts back". I guess in English the equivalent would be something like "What goes around, comes around" or "Yo reap what you sow".

But back on the actual topic:
I said that this year will end up probably average or above average in respect to the last 10 years. The last 10 years had an average daily minimum extent of 4.5 million km² with a standard deviation of +/- 0.5 mio km². So "average" would be 4-5 million km². To get into the top 3, it is enough to end up below 4.1 million, which is even within the standard deviation, so an "average" year can even make it to the top-3, when it is on the lower end of the average.

So I'm not disputing what Neven had said, but for this year to reach the top 3, the remaining weather would have to be absolutely favorable for melting, so I would say it is not very likely. Much more likely is however, that the year may end up around 5 Mio km² or above, as you might just need average weather for that.

In any case: This year will not be the end of Arctic ice or a prime example for the "Artice death spiral". That is just nonsense.
"Bullshit" is rude. I advice you take an actual piece of a bull's feces, put it on your table and smell the thing well to see why. Why not just use "incorrect" term? I see no excuse. As for your projections, now you do much better job argumenting them, however i still can't agree entirely. I see too many mentions of extensive fragmentation and "small melt ponding", and i see lots of mentions of record high temperatures around the globe. The big picture is really warm. We'll see.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2122 on: July 12, 2018, 04:43:41 PM »
I see too many mentions of extensive fragmentation and "small melt ponding", and i see lots of mentions of record high temperatures around the globe. The big picture is really warm. We'll see.

The most important numbers are those of the CAB – and there 2018 is between the leading years. While the southern ice still can melt in August or even September, the CAB will stop melting first – so, if it's advanced and Kara for example is still covered by ice, that indicates towards a season with elevated melt later this year. While I don't expect extreme numbers, this year can still compete with the top 3 or 4.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2123 on: July 12, 2018, 05:33:40 PM »
The most important numbers are those of the CAB – and there 2018 is between the leading years.

I'd agree, and:


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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2124 on: July 12, 2018, 06:54:21 PM »
Looking at the CAB; which is about as low as it has ever been, versus every other part of the Arctic, I think it is just more WACCy weather.  I know it is too soon, but I'm ready to start discussing the coming freezing(?) season.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2125 on: July 12, 2018, 09:37:51 PM »
Interesting GFS 5 day forecast. Observe the cold area on the Russian side, and the cool area in the Eastern Hudson
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RikW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2126 on: July 13, 2018, 10:47:33 AM »
Isn't that because there is still ice there, while it's sometimes blue-hudson-bay in this time of the year?

As far as I understand ice temperature above ice won't get much above the freezing point, because of the transfer of energy into melting ice. So when an area that normally doesn't have ice and now has ice, temperature will be much lower. And when an area that normally does have ice and now doesn't, temperature will be much higer than average.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2127 on: July 13, 2018, 11:34:22 AM »
Kara finally going poof today.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

RikW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2128 on: July 13, 2018, 11:42:13 AM »
Yeah, Kara is spectactulair/terrifying to see on Worldview when you animate last weeks

deconstruct

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2129 on: July 13, 2018, 06:55:16 PM »
Actually, your graph shows exactly that. Half of siberia had  temps 2-3 C above average
And? Is that extraordinary? Never seen before? Or isnt that something that happens like every year?
A 2-3°C difference to the average over a period of a 2-3 month is totally in the usual year-to-year fluctuation of temperatures. That is not special.

And half of siberia had higher temps means that the other half hadn't. You can't just cherry pick one part that suits your opinion. And as I said: How do you get from "half of siberia had a 2°C above average temperature" to "that will play a major role in september sea ice minimum"?

I like this forum, because people like Wipneus really provide useful information with their charts. But many claims, especially on this thread, are not supported by any real evidence and nobody has done even the slightest calculation to check wether this claims are even in the ballpark of reality.

Or many things are just grossly over-exaggerated. Like the melt-out of the Kara this year. Yeah, it melted a lot the last weeks. But so what? It melts a lot every year. It was already melted out completely at that time in 2011, 2012, 2015 or 2016 and had lower concentration in many other years at mid july. So that isn't an indicator for how that melt season will be going nor is it an indicator of something being "terrifying" or "spectacular".

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2130 on: July 13, 2018, 08:19:13 PM »
reading here repeatedly give the impression that hudson bay's extent is extraordinary high.

if i look at the attached image one could almost lay the current ice cover over/inside the long term average ice extent around this date (or vice vers).

to me it looks more like if it's just in another place but not really extraordinary high in extent.

further, even though barrows was close to being ice free a few days ago, for the last few days, ice has apparently been pushed into the bay by winds and/or current.

since temps are currently at 15C this could mean that it could later show to be some kind of a death zone for ice flowing in from the north and have an impact. it's just an observation, not more and
i have no dedicated opinion or knowledge about it and it's significance. just something i see watch every day and makes me thinking about whether it means something or not.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2131 on: July 13, 2018, 09:07:22 PM »
Hudson Bay may have an extent that is about the median of the range of years 1981-2010, but its extent is currently above 5 of the years 2012-2017.  (2015 had more ice extent.)  So by 'recent' standards, its melt is slow.  On the other hand, extent went to zero during all these recent years, including 2015.  Therefore, I expect Hudson Bay to be functionally ice-free by mid-September.
[edit:  attached graph from ASI Graphs]
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 05:32:49 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2132 on: July 13, 2018, 09:09:25 PM »
reading here repeatedly give the impression that hudson bay's extent is extraordinary high.

if i look at the attached image one could almost lay the current ice cover over/inside the long term average ice extent around this date (or vice vers).

to me it looks more like if it's just in another place but not really extraordinary high in extent.

Hudson Bay melt stalled for a couple of weeks in early June (maybe due to high snow cover extent) - recent melt has meant a bit of catchup has happened. Current area is between the 1990's and 2000's average. By the looks of it melt could stay higher than average and total melt out closer to the 2010's average. We are talking a few days either way - not a big deal.

Graph attached.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2133 on: July 13, 2018, 10:40:59 PM »
Actually, your graph shows exactly that. Half of siberia had  temps 2-3 C above average
And? Is that extraordinary? Never seen before? Or isnt that something that happens like every year?

Dude! You demanded evidence that Siberia has been warmer than average and at the same time posted a graph that showed that Siberia has been warmer than average. That is an own-goal, that's all I'm saying, nothing else. Don't make it personal, don't start flaming.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2134 on: July 14, 2018, 12:19:49 AM »
@Tor Bejnar
@gerontocrat

THX
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2135 on: July 14, 2018, 12:39:53 AM »
Inbound very long period waves of over 500m wavelength, and over 100kmph velocity.
Further discussed on the SMOS thread. Considerable advance since yesterdays images posted there.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2136 on: July 14, 2018, 02:19:12 AM »
Worldview pics of the Wrangel Island area and coast from June 22 (top) and today (bottom). Today's image was quite clear after many days of clouds and smoke.


Juan C. García

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2137 on: July 14, 2018, 05:14:44 AM »
Kara finally going poof today.

Not only Kara. Hudson Bay looks in bad shape also.
Another century break now?
double century break  :o?

We will know in 20 60? :( minutes... 
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 06:06:19 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2138 on: July 14, 2018, 08:43:38 AM »
Kara finally going poof today.
Right about on schedule based on what I was seeing about 10 days ago.

Next up, the Beaufort.  This is a *GREAT* shot Worldview got on the 13th.

Most of this ice has a life expectancy of about 2 weeks.  That's roughly about 500,000 KM2 of extent.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2139 on: July 14, 2018, 09:56:43 AM »
Is this season up for a great final?  :o
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2140 on: July 14, 2018, 10:50:43 AM »
10-14 days of sunny weather would help.
Compare, compare, compare

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2141 on: July 14, 2018, 10:51:31 AM »
Beaufort Sea ice movement 2018 June 1st - July13th


oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2142 on: July 14, 2018, 11:23:04 AM »
Kara finally going poof today.

Not only Kara. Hudson Bay looks in bad shape also.
Another century break now?
double century break  :o?

We will know in 20 60? :( minutes...
According to Wipneus, a double century indeed.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2143 on: July 14, 2018, 11:44:02 AM »
July is half over, and has been a big bust so far.  Forecast is for low pressure ice retaining weather for the next 7 days.  So unless the forecast/weather changes spectacularly July is going to finish a bust.  And if July is a bust the whole melting season is a bust in my opinion.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2144 on: July 14, 2018, 12:13:37 PM »
Atlantic waters carried in by the tides seem to be having an increased effect. At present though not ideal, the low by Iceland and the winds are assisting Atlantic waters over the ridge by the Faroes into the Greenland/Norwegian seas just as the low and winds by Svalbard are assisting penetration further north. What fraction of Arctic waters will be displaced or ice melted ? 
 
I'm useless at statistics but imho this is the first year that a clear tidal signature has appeared, vis. extent/area, and I expect that to become clearer as the season goes on

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2145 on: July 14, 2018, 01:28:51 PM »
July is half over, and has been a big bust so far.  Forecast is for low pressure ice retaining weather for the next 7 days.  So unless the forecast/weather changes spectacularly July is going to finish a bust.  And if July is a bust the whole melting season is a bust in my opinion.

how would you translate "bust" in this context, since my english is not perfect i understand the current situation as the opposite of ice going bust while as we all know it can still happen ;)
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wallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2146 on: July 14, 2018, 02:35:43 PM »
July is half over, and has been a big bust so far.  Forecast is for low pressure ice retaining weather for the next 7 days.  So unless the forecast/weather changes spectacularly July is going to finish a bust.  And if July is a bust the whole melting season is a bust in my opinion.

Mmm, not so sure. Hudson and Kara while they melt out, have been resistant this season. But have very quickly just given way and it would surprise me for areas of the peripheral regions follow suit. I am only a layman, but it seems there is a lot of heat extending in from the Pacific and the Atlantic and I am wondering if there will a lot of late season bottom melting happening and persisting.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2147 on: July 14, 2018, 04:22:31 PM »
Actually, your graph shows exactly that. Half of siberia had  temps 2-3 C above average
And? Is that extraordinary? Never seen before? Or isnt that something that happens like every year?

Dude! You demanded evidence that Siberia has been warmer than average and at the same time posted a graph that showed that Siberia has been warmer than average. That is an own-goal, that's all I'm saying, nothing else. Don't make it personal, don't start flaming.

I read his comment. Hardly flaming. He is merely pointing out that too many posters are using adjectives like extraordinary, unprecedented, spectacular when what they are describing is nothing of the sort. And if something is truly extraordinary, then the person should include back up data and charts that show this. Historical data is readily available to support such claims if true.

Ktb

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2148 on: July 14, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »
If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2149 on: July 14, 2018, 04:52:03 PM »
As I follow the melt season, I will periodically review these graphs to ground myself in the actual performance of the melt season based on area and extent measures. Are area and extent the only valid indicators of melt season performance? No, but they still help us understand how the regions are performing as compared to the last 6 years.

So how does SIA compare to the last 6 years?

1. The Bering had a ridiculously low max and melted out early.
2. Influenced by the Bering, the Chukchi started melting early but stalled and now is in the middle of the pack.
3. Beaufort melt started on schedule but has also stalled and is now trailing the pack.
4. The Kara had a delayed melt onset and continues to trail the pack.
5. The Laptev had an early onset of melt and continues to lead the pack.
6. Melt onset in the ESS was comparable to the past 6 years and is now lagging slightly.
7. Hudson Bay melt was trailing the pack until recent aggressive melt which now has it in the middle of the pack.
8. The CAA had some early aggressive melt, stalled and now is trailing the pack.
9. The CAB had an early onset of melt and continues this early lead.

I would not describe any of this as spectacular or extraordinary when compared to the most recent years and we now find ourselves in the middle of July with the final melt results uncertain but great fun to follow. Based on the current measures, do I expect a new record minimum? No.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 04:57:11 PM by Shared Humanity »