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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2200 on: July 17, 2018, 04:04:30 PM »
Yep more and more it looks like we’ve got a new arctic on our hands, at least for long as it lasts. In tandem with cloudy cool summers we have stormy warm winters, which leads to younger/thinner, weaker and more fragmented ice.  One thing that I’m wondering about is how the lack of melt during melting season reduces the fresh water lens going into freezing season and hence poorly primes the ocean for new ice formation?  Could this be a kind of negative feedback in our new Arctic?

pearscot

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2201 on: July 17, 2018, 05:30:18 PM »
I agree with you Ice Shield. For the last few years, especially during the last pronounced El Nino, I thought we were going to see a massive drop in the ice extent and each year I have been completely wrong.  I am very amazed at the resilience ice pack post 2012. Even the ocean currents in the arctic are much cooler than I had expected to see. I suppose the nonstop clouds and fog are doing an ample job at protecting the ice. Though, and I'm sure I'm totally wrong here, part of me wonders if the water up north is as cold as it is due to much more bottom melt than anticipated.

That said, the pack is certainly not in great shape and like what it once was. While I think we will hobble along in the same pattern and we won't see an ice-free year until at least the 2030's, I think that one year with ideal conditions conducive to melting, like 2012, will devastate the pack and the true extent of the broken flows will become apparent and more pronounced. But for now I will sit and watch and try to figure out wtf is going on with our climate.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 05:37:23 PM by pearscot »
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2202 on: July 17, 2018, 09:25:21 PM »
Found this https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/15oct_seaice2

"ice reflects sunlight back to space.  If the ice melts, that sunlight is no longer reflected; it is absorbed. Moisture released from the warming sea surface rises up to form clouds. Clouds themselves reflect sunlight, but they also act like a blanket, keeping the earth beneath them warm".
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Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2203 on: July 17, 2018, 09:33:11 PM »
What is protecting the ice is the cooler fresh water layer that is causing the warm Atlantic Water current to move below it.  The stratification is keeping the warm current from acting upon the ice.

There is enough heat in the mid level layer to melt out the ice several times over.  should that stratification break down and allow mixing, as has now happened in the Barents, 'Atlantification' would take place throughout the Arctic.

Apparently the counter-cyclonic movement of the Beaufort Gyre is the only thing preventing the fresh water layer from flushing into the north Atlantic.

Should it slow and reverse as it used to do regularly prior to 2006, that warm water would come to the surface and obliterate the ice.

 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.msg163554.html#new   
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 09:50:11 PM by Cid_Yama »
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2204 on: July 17, 2018, 09:38:10 PM »
I would also like to add that the cloudy, cooler summers..... if they are a -feedback than what we’re seeing in the winter is certainly a +feedback.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2205 on: July 17, 2018, 09:52:06 PM »
I agree with you Ice Shield. For the last few years, especially during the last pronounced El Nino, I thought we were going to see a massive drop in the ice extent and each year I have been completely wrong.  I am very amazed at the resilience ice pack post 2012. Even the ocean currents in the arctic are much cooler than I had expected to see. I suppose the nonstop clouds and fog are doing an ample job at protecting the ice. Though, and I'm sure I'm totally wrong here, part of me wonders if the water up north is as cold as it is due to much more bottom melt than anticipated.

That said, the pack is certainly not in great shape and like what it once was. While I think we will hobble along in the same pattern and we won't see an ice-free year until at least the 2030's, I think that one year with ideal conditions conducive to melting, like 2012, will devastate the pack and the true extent of the broken flows will become apparent and more pronounced. But for now I will sit and watch and try to figure out wtf is going on with our climate.
We are having a lot of meltwater and melting floes dispersed out into the periphery and out of the basin by the anticlockwise cyclonic rotation. This also causes ekman suction which draws up saltier waters from below, enhancing bottom melting, increasing warm subsurface inflows from the pacific and atlantic, and reducing the temperature of the water that the ice is melting in.
This creates a feedback increasing atmospheric heat transfer in at low level, by enhancing the temperature difference between the land that has more low level heat and moisture being drawn into the basin over its coasts by the cyclonic activity. And the cooler than normal ice kill zones nearby, with the ice being flung out into them. The extensive fog and low cloud is not just trapping outgoing heat, but is a symptom of very large energy input into the ice and rapid melting .
Latest US Navy Beaufort animation.seems to need a click to animate.
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2206 on: July 17, 2018, 10:16:31 PM »
What is protecting the ice is the cooler fresh water layer that is causing the warm Atlantic Water current to move below it.  The stratification is keeping the warm current from acting upon the ice.

There is enough heat in the mid level layer to melt out the ice several times over.  should that stratification break down and allow mixing, as has now happened in the Barents, 'Atlantification' would take place throughout the Arctic.

Apparently the counter-cyclonic movement of the Beaufort Gyre is the only thing preventing the fresh water layer from flushing into the north Atlantic.

Should it slow and reverse as it used to do regularly prior to 2006, that warm water would come to the surface and obliterate the ice.

 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.msg163554.html#new   
It already has slowed right down and purged Cid. As discussed earlier. And the Beaufort lid freshwater store has been misleadingly reported as having increased in recent years in published papers by defining freshwater as the amount of water below 34psu. In the early 2000s it was around 22psu in the Beaufort surface layer. Now 29psu or above.
The winds waves and currents coming up between Greenland and Svalbard in the last month have even entrained the melt and beaufort lid coming out through the CAA and Labrador sea over the last month, and now are mixing it into the Atlantic inflow. This will allow the Atlantic inflow to stay near surface in the mixing zone, matching its salinity with the Pacific inflow and Atlantic surface water layers.
I think people should keep their speculation about this seasons end result to the threads st up for that purpose. It's driving away the more informed commentary with all the yabber based on irrelevant extent, making out the ice is in recovery or that its a slow melt year. This thread is supposed to be for recording the detailed situation as it happens. Is it not?
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Avalonian

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2207 on: July 17, 2018, 11:42:28 PM »
Worth noting that parts of the NWP are finally breaking up on Worldview. Have a look in the gaps between the clouds, and some areas (mostly small so far) are both fragmenting and vanishing. Obviously it's finally got thin enough that it's starting to poof.


pearscot

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2208 on: July 18, 2018, 12:36:10 AM »
What is protecting the ice is the cooler fresh water layer that is causing the warm Atlantic Water current to move below it.  The stratification is keeping the warm current from acting upon the ice.

There is enough heat in the mid level layer to melt out the ice several times over.  should that stratification break down and allow mixing, as has now happened in the Barents, 'Atlantification' would take place throughout the Arctic.

Apparently the counter-cyclonic movement of the Beaufort Gyre is the only thing preventing the fresh water layer from flushing into the north Atlantic.

Should it slow and reverse as it used to do regularly prior to 2006, that warm water would come to the surface and obliterate the ice.

 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.msg163554.html#new   
It already has slowed right down and purged Cid. As discussed earlier. And the Beaufort lid freshwater store has been misleadingly reported as having increased in recent years in published papers by defining freshwater as the amount of water below 34psu. In the early 2000s it was around 22psu in the Beaufort surface layer. Now 29psu or above.
The winds waves and currents coming up between Greenland and Svalbard in the last month have even entrained the melt and beaufort lid coming out through the CAA and Labrador sea over the last month, and now are mixing it into the Atlantic inflow. This will allow the Atlantic inflow to stay near surface in the mixing zone, matching its salinity with the Pacific inflow and Atlantic surface water layers.
I think people should keep their speculation about this seasons end result to the threads st up for that purpose. It's driving away the more informed commentary with all the yabber based on irrelevant extent, making out the ice is in recovery or that its a slow melt year. This thread is supposed to be for recording the detailed situation as it happens. Is it not?

Yes, you are right and the discussions of extent are beyond the scope of this thread. However, I did appreciate your points about the mixing of different depths and currents. As I brought up and attempted to figure out, I find it odd to see just how different water temps are this year compared to others - there's much more going on than my understanding at the moment - the more I know the more I know I know nothing.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2209 on: July 18, 2018, 09:06:35 AM »
What is protecting the ice is the cooler fresh water layer that is causing the warm Atlantic Water current to move below it.  The stratification is keeping the warm current from acting upon the ice.

There is enough heat in the mid level layer to melt out the ice several times over.  should that stratification break down and allow mixing, as has now happened in the Barents, 'Atlantification' would take place throughout the Arctic.

Apparently the counter-cyclonic movement of the Beaufort Gyre is the only thing preventing the fresh water layer from flushing into the north Atlantic.

Should it slow and reverse as it used to do regularly prior to 2006, that warm water would come to the surface and obliterate the ice.

 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.msg163554.html#new   
It already has slowed right down and purged Cid. As discussed earlier. And the Beaufort lid freshwater store has been misleadingly reported as having increased in recent years in published papers by defining freshwater as the amount of water below 34psu. In the early 2000s it was around 22psu in the Beaufort surface layer. Now 29psu or above.
The winds waves and currents coming up between Greenland and Svalbard in the last month have even entrained the melt and beaufort lid coming out through the CAA and Labrador sea over the last month, and now are mixing it into the Atlantic inflow. This will allow the Atlantic inflow to stay near surface in the mixing zone, matching its salinity with the Pacific inflow and Atlantic surface water layers.
I think people should keep their speculation about this seasons end result to the threads st up for that purpose. It's driving away the more informed commentary with all the yabber based on irrelevant extent, making out the ice is in recovery or that its a slow melt year. This thread is supposed to be for recording the detailed situation as it happens. Is it not?

I saw where there had been a thread, but have seen no evidence, (and trust me I've looked hard) that the Gyre has slowed or reversed.  Paul Beckwith had an article but it was a prediction.  Yes, increased freshwater outflows from the Arctic are going on but not from the Gyre reversing.

If it had, I would think it would be big enough news I would at least be able to find something on it. I certainly shouldn't have to search far and wide.

Please provide documentation supporting your claim.

Also, I made NO prediction for this season with regard to extent, just described the mixing between layers that would take place in the process of 'Atlantification' as already exhibited in the Barents.

Oh, and that bit about my yabbering driving away more informed commentary, let's see what Neven thinks about that comment.  I expect your apology forthwith.

Attacking and insulting people you disagree with doesn't cut it.  Your attitude seems to have been getting you in trouble a lot, as of late.
 
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 09:40:32 AM by Cid_Yama »
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binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2210 on: July 18, 2018, 11:05:55 AM »
And the Beaufort lid freshwater store has been misleadingly reported as having increased in recent years in published papers by defining freshwater as the amount of water below 34psu. In the early 2000s it was around 22psu in the Beaufort surface layer. Now 29psu or above.

That's quite interesting if correct, do you have any links to substantiating evidence re the salination figures?

The winds waves and currents coming up between Greenland and Svalbard in the last month have even entrained the melt and beaufort lid coming out through the CAA and Labrador sea over the last month, and now are mixing it into the Atlantic inflow. This will allow the Atlantic inflow to stay near surface in the mixing zone, matching its salinity with the Pacific inflow and Atlantic surface water layers.

Sounds like unfounded speculation - and what's with the entrained thing? You keep saying that this and that is being  "entrained" which seems to indicate a sentence consisting mainly of applesauce

I think people should keep their speculation about this seasons end result to the threads st up for that purpose. It's driving away the more informed commentary with all the yabber based on irrelevant extent, making out the ice is in recovery or that its a slow melt year. This thread is supposed to be for recording the detailed situation as it happens. Is it not?

Absolutely true, you should consider following your own advice.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2211 on: July 18, 2018, 12:17:05 PM »
Just thought I'd briefly flash back to the very first post in this thread:

As the SIE has dropped the last few days and the forecast calls for southerlies to enter Berings Sea now I think we can call the maximum and also declare the 2018 Melting season started! And I think a lot of people here thinks it quite fitting to start the melting season thread with a century break... :)

Personally, I think we will end up somewhere around 4,5 Mn km2 by the middle of September.

Now, let's get this show on the road! :)

After four months, LMV's speculation about where the season would end up is looking pretty good, assuming the melt rate picks up a bit.


Darvince

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2212 on: July 18, 2018, 03:11:21 PM »
Cold, cold, and more cold for the next five days, although D3 has two shots of warm air over the Kara and pacific side of the pack.

Needs a click.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2213 on: July 18, 2018, 04:43:55 PM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2214 on: July 18, 2018, 04:52:34 PM »
Oh, and that bit about my yabbering driving away more informed commentary, let's see what Neven thinks about that comment.  I expect your apology forthwith.

Well, I let it through, so maybe I should apologise also. I think I let it through because I enjoyed the irony.  ;)

Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

This is slowly shaping up to become the billion dollar question. As far as I have seen, no scientists have addressed it as of yet.
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colchonero

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2215 on: July 18, 2018, 04:57:17 PM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

Someone can later explain it in "climate language", I'll just try to keep it as simple as possible. When the weather is really cold/hot it's much easier to get warmer/cooler than to get even colder/hotter. Let's say you have -20F/-30C, you can't expect it to drop another 20C to -50C that easy, but it's much "easier" to get 20C warmer. You would just need some "warmer" air advection, or clouds or whatever. It's like driving a car from 0 to 60mph or 0 to 100kmh you can get really quick, but from 60 to 120mph (100 to 200kmh) you will need more time, even if your foot hasn't left pedal for a moment.

So it's much easier to have more warming when it's the coldest period of the year. The same happens with minimum temperatures. The most warming these days is caused by a surge in minimum temperatures(coldest period of the day), and also there is more departure from average for example in NH during winter time.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 05:04:48 PM by colchonero »

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2216 on: July 18, 2018, 04:58:28 PM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?
Where the extra heat in winter goes is out of the atmosphere, replacing heat that would have come out of the Arctic Ocean.

The result is, less ice being formed.

Less ice forms in peripheral seas that normally contribute to early extent loss.  Ice doesn't thicken as much in central regions.

QED, the heat isn't melting more ice.  That energy budget annually is actually pretty much fixed by insolation.  It's gone up slightly, but that has more to do with increases in heat imported via currents, which doesn't vary as dramatically over the year as does insolation and weather.  However, you can see looking at Jim Pettit's excellent graph that average annual ice loss has only increased by about 15% or so, and any given year can vary as much as 10-15% above or below that average.

The annual maximum is where the story really rests - that's decreased by around 40%...

http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png

So in that context, even with our recent very warm winters, what's happening this melt season with an apparently "anemic" melt is entirely within the kind of deviation range I'd expect.
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anaphylaxia

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2217 on: July 18, 2018, 05:01:19 PM »
I think someone said earlier, that the sub meter sea ice doesnt have enough insulating ability, thus the water under it cools substantially during winter. Didnt run any calculations on that, but this could explain some "missing" heat.

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2218 on: July 18, 2018, 05:19:31 PM »
According to one of my favorite graphs, this spring/summer seems to be warmer than the last few years:

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

On the other hand, DMI north of 80 is showing unusually low temperatures.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2219 on: July 18, 2018, 05:38:34 PM »
Lucky its good weather for ice retention . Look at the ice north of Greenland. JaXA dropped 30K in last 2 days - it actually increased 10k the first of those, what? That's pretty ridiculous this time of year. Could the fragmented pack keep spreading out to the current edge in Beaufort, Laptev Chukchi and along the line at 82N in the Atlantic? IThe "pack" going to be a strange ragged thing if this goes on

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2220 on: July 18, 2018, 05:47:17 PM »
Quote
DMI north of 80 is showing unusually low temperatures.
Because we receive reports of lots of imported heat on these threads and lots of clouds (less insolation), are the low DMI80 temps due to increased melt (using 'all that imported heat' in converting ice to water) or decreased melt ('there ain't no sunshine to melt ice'). 

Volume is 'just an educated guess' (models, mostly), so we don't really know how much ice is melting. [Wintertime measurements (and early freeze minimum area) go a long way towards resetting/establishing the thickness estimate each year.]  Extent and Area, given their slow decline this summer, rather suggest that there isn't heat to melt ice.

However, insolation affects ice edges more than floe centers, as solar-heated water melts ice edges and melt ponded ice (far more than solar induced bottom melt, as most of the light is reflected).  Wind derived heat, on the other hand, gets applied to 'all surfaces' much more equitably, so would affect floe centers about as much (roughly) as floe edges. 

Therefore, I don't know why DMI80 temperatures have been low.
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Random_Weather

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2221 on: July 18, 2018, 06:22:32 PM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

We always looking at anomaly of temperature, strong positive anomlies during winter-times dosent mean, that there is "heat", its always cold, just only less cool then years before. To be clear, the "heat" from winter is physical much cooler then the coldest summer which has been observed.

Mean, if Winter dissapears, anomalies also dissapears and in Summer, because of sea ice which thermodynamics mean, as long as ice is here, it take the most power for melting ice and not increase temperature. Therefore, as long as ice is there, big anomalies like in Winter are simply not possible.

During Melt-Saison, there is a lot of variation on Melt-Power which is build up, it also is able to compensate some loos of thinning ice in Winter, therefore the minimum is most likely the result of summer temperature, especially June.

Also look here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2327.msg162958.html#msg162958

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2222 on: July 18, 2018, 06:23:55 PM »
This is slowly shaping up to become the billion dollar question. As far as I have seen, no scientists have addressed it as of yet.

Aren't we addressing it? Aren't we all scientists? At least armchair ones ......

*Warmer* winters simple mean less FDD days, so less ice forms. That is visible in ice volume and extent.

I think there is a weak consensus on the Forum that the climate of the Arctic switched to a more Maritime climate sometime during 2015/2016 (look at the winter anomalies in the DMI temps north of 80°C). How long does that take to affect the ice? We have seen two years of this change. Does the Arctic ice/ocean/atmosphere system take 2 years to adjust and reach equilibrium, or 10, or 100? What will that equilibrium look like as we continue to see a warming planet? Are we now eroding a protective halocline that took 5 decades to form or does it reform every year? Is the change to a cloudier Arctic a permanent change because of Anthropogenic global warming? Unfortunately we wont know the answers to these questions for a while, and it is a terrifying and absorbing experiment that we have undertaken.




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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2223 on: July 18, 2018, 09:44:14 PM »
SST Anomalies from DMI, 16 July and 18 June. Will these slow down refreeze significantly and / or impact the remaining days of the melt season ?

Bering /Chukchi seas area anomalies in decline?
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2224 on: July 18, 2018, 09:48:35 PM »
In response to the cooler summers.... I think the jury is still out on whether or not what we’ve seen the last few summers is the new normal. Let’s all not forget that climate is based off long term trends. Yes maybe it is the new normal, or maybe not. I think if this goes on for 10 more years we can say it’s the new trend with more certainty.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2225 on: July 18, 2018, 09:52:04 PM »
I remember posting a map of a positive outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Arctic ocean last winter. I think there's evidence that more heat has radiated out to space over the Arctic the last 2 winters, but I don't have time to find the evidence right now.

Heat has also built up in the north Atlantic and the subpolar seas.

Way back in the months following the record low ice extent of 2012, Arctic scientists said that the summer Arctic Oscillation could shift from negative to positive. They told us that AO shifts are expected natural variability. It's premature, to say the least, to conclude that Arctic summers have made a permanent shift from sunny high pressure to cloudy low pressure. This cool, cloudy, July is best explained at this time by natural variability.

pleun

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2226 on: July 18, 2018, 10:35:56 PM »
In response to the cooler summers.... I think the jury is still out on whether or not what we’ve seen the last few summers is the new normal. Let’s all not forget that climate is based off long term trends. Yes maybe it is the new normal, or maybe not. I think if this goes on for 10 more years we can say it’s the new trend with more certainty.

Hi all, I stumbled upon this article that might shed some light on this matter. Thought I'd share it here.

University of Washington. "Atlantic circulation is not collapsing -- but as it shifts gears, warming will reaccelerate." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 18 July 2018. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 10:45:17 PM by pleun »

Martin Gisser

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2227 on: July 18, 2018, 11:56:27 PM »
In response to the cooler summers.... I think the jury is still out on whether or not what we’ve seen the last few summers is the new normal. Let’s all not forget that climate is based off long term trends. Yes maybe it is the new normal, or maybe not. I think if this goes on for 10 more years we can say it’s the new trend with more certainty.

Hi all, I stumbled upon this article that might shed some light on this matter. Thought I'd share it here.

University of Washington. "Atlantic circulation is not collapsing -- but as it shifts gears, warming will reaccelerate." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 18 July 2018. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm

Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael Mann disagree:
From http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/does-a-slow-amoc-increase-the-rate-of-global-warming/
Quote
(...)

(...)

If the rate of thermohaline overturning slows down, then heat diffusion gains the upper hand and the deep ocean warms. If it speeds up, the opposite happens and the deep ocean cools. Model simulations show that this is true for decadal variability (e.g. Knight et al. 2005) as well during global warming (e.g. Liu et al. 2017). Knight et al. found that decadal variability of the AMOC can cause  small variations in global mean surface temperature, with a strong AMOC linked to high global surface temperatures. Liu et al. found that their climate model warms less under the same greenhouse gas scenario when the AMOC is weakened more.

It is surprising, then, that today a paper was published in Nature that claims the exact opposite:
(...)

The evidence

The great Carl Sagan once said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, so we approached the paper by Chen and Tung with considerable curiosity. We were soon disappointed, however. The only evidence presented is the putative coincidence of two phases of slow global surface warming (1942-1975 and 1998-2014) with strong AMOC (i.e. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), and a phase of more rapid warming (1975-1998) with weak AMOC (their Fig. 3). There is no statistical examination of this supposed correlation. A number of further graphs showing various spatial patterns do nothing to support the new hypothesis: these graphs just show well-known patterns like the interhemispheric see-saw effect of AMOC variations and the Zhang fingerprint (also shown by Caesar et al. in Nature earlier this year), which are fully consistent with the established view of the effect of AMOC variability on ocean temperatures. Indeed one of us (Mike) has co-authored the paper by Knight et al. showing that natural variability in the AMOC sometimes called the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or “AMO” (a term originally coined by Mike) demonstrates an in-phase relationship between large-scale surface warming and the strength of the AMO, i.e. the opposite of what the present authors claim. The peak impact on global mean temperature, incidentally, is found to be only ~0.1C, calling into question any claim that trends in global mean temperature will be substantially influenced by the phase of the AMO.

(...)

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2228 on: July 19, 2018, 12:39:40 AM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

It could be a simple case of luck resulting in three unusually warm winters at the same time as we have had two and on the way to a third not so warm summers.  Are the recent summers genuinely poor?  Or maybe the summers from 2007-2012 were unusually strong and we are back to a more normal pattern in summer?  I say poor and strong rather than cold/warm as I think there is more to it than cold/warm, although a large part is sunny/cloudy which results in warm/cool.  Also wind/ice export.  Perhaps the forgotten issue of this year is a low ice export via fram strait providing a strong boost to ice retention.  Or almost forgotten, I think it has been commented on at least a couple of times.

It will be interesting to see if the pattern continues, and increases the pressure to find an explanation other than blind luck.

A thread I posted recently may be part of the answer.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2229 on: July 19, 2018, 07:26:44 AM »
Comparing visuals on 2018 vs 2016 vs 2012.  And wow there was some crappy ice around in 2016/2012 by this date.  Definitely a good amount of crappy ice around Beaufort/Chukchi sector this year, and given the forecast of a strong warm front quickly surging through this area, and sustained strong winds with a strong cyclone, it will be something to watch.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2230 on: July 19, 2018, 07:43:43 AM »
July 14-18.

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2231 on: July 19, 2018, 09:19:33 AM »
Does anyone know of a graph showing heat input / output from all sources to Arctic Ice at a certain time of the melt season   ?
Given the high latent heat of water ~ air, it would be interestig to see the melt forcing from water ~ air / insolation  etc.
Also, the warm lower layer inability to mix seems to be the main reason that there are no new melt minima occurring. What could cause this layer to mix ?

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2232 on: July 19, 2018, 11:32:40 AM »
I thank everyone for the answers to my question as to where has the record winter warmth gone during the past 3 summers in the Arctic and why it did not show up in less summer ice. I think the answer lies in many factors that you have mentioned: Atlantification, losses to space, more cloudy weather, a statistically too short period, etc etc. Anyway, thanks for all.
I attach the chart I was referring to in my question (60-90 N DJF temps, NCEP /GISS)

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2233 on: July 19, 2018, 03:25:40 PM »
...
This is slowly shaping up to become the billion dollar question. As far as I have seen, no scientists have addressed it as of yet.
I tried, after 2013 and 2014 summers being what they were. I was told to shut up, basically. The reason (ultimately) being that most readers find it highly uncomfortable to even consider that things i explained could be real. Psychological block, of sorts. So possibly, the thing is not being (completely) addressed simply because it leads to substantial alientation and ostracism of the one who'd be trying to address it. Even when one tries in hints and clues, as i did...
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 03:44:17 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2234 on: July 19, 2018, 03:49:38 PM »
I tried, after 2013 and 2014 summers being what they were. I was told to shut up, basically. The reason (ultimately) being that most readers find it highly uncomfortable to even consider that things i explained could be real. Psychological block, of sorts. So possibly, the thing is not being (completely) addressed simply because it leads to substantial alientation and ostracism of the one who'd be trying to address it. Even when one tries in hints and clues, as i did...

Where do you think the heat went?

NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2235 on: July 19, 2018, 04:39:40 PM »

Where do you think the heat went?

This is not hard to work out.  Blue line, top left to bottom right.

The Arctic is far too noisy a system to try and work this out month by month or year by year.  Decade by Decade is a completely different picture.

All you have to do is follow the blue line and you have every answer you need.  But to do that you have to stop looking week by week, month by month, seasons by season or year by year.



As has been mentioned a few times on this thread, there is only so much melting budget each year because there is only so much sun each year.  The melt for any one year depends on several things:

1. The state when we exit the winter freeze
2. The weather in spring and summer
3. The amount of solar output for any given year

This year we ended the winter anomalously low.  But, as with every year, some areas were much colder than others.

We ended spring with cooler, more cloudy weather which has blocked and reflected much of the potential melt.

So far, in summer, we have had continuing cool and cloudy weather, as a whole, over the majority of the Arctic.

Finally solar cycle 24 is almost ended, we are at a low for sunspots and the sun is putting out (very slightly), less w/m2 for every hour of sunlight.

Where did the heat go?  It stopped even more ice volume from growing that might have been the case otherwise.

Why don't we have more summer ice melt this year than was expected by the start of the year?  That has more than one answer but, generally, it's been a poor season for ice melt and a good season for retention of what ice we have left.

However, overall, the legacy of the ice which did not grow in winter will be carried on into the next freezing season.

The end result of the entire package?  That blue line will continue to go down.

The result of that will be shown when we hit the peak of solar cycle 25, with a warm winter behind us and a 2012 type melting season and a 2.5 SD drop in volume.  When we probably only have 3SD left in ice.
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2236 on: July 19, 2018, 06:51:26 PM »
NeilT mentions the three important parameters regarding ice melt extent.....

1. The state when we exit the winter freeze
2. The weather in spring and summer
3. The amount of solar output for any given year

Perhaps ocean circulation / currents may be as important. There can be enormous energy brought through the Berents sea ?? If this changes in a small way, it may result in huge changes in ice melt extent

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2237 on: July 19, 2018, 07:38:13 PM »
NeilT mentions the three important parameters regarding ice melt extent.....

1. The state when we exit the winter freeze
2. The weather in spring and summer
3. The amount of solar output for any given year

Perhaps ocean circulation / currents may be as important. There can be enormous energy brought through the Berents sea ?? If this changes in a small way, it may result in huge changes in ice melt extent
Ocean circulation primarily factors three ways.

First and most importantly, it is increasing the net enthalpy of the Arctic Ocean and peripheral seas.  Every year, this lowers the threshold for and timing of melt.

Secondly, it disrupts the lower salinity lens that in the  past slowed melting and protected ice.

Lastly, disruption of thermos and haloclines makes stored heat more accessible during the melt season. This last I think will be what someday delivers the final coup de grace to the pack.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2238 on: July 19, 2018, 08:05:30 PM »
Very true but what is the variance and at what depth does it influence?

From what I've seen the ocean circulation dives deep when it comes into the arctic and then only comes to the surface when being heavily mixed.  Requiring, mainly, weather to intervene.

On the other hand the three I have mentioned have direct impact on melt without any other influence.

I agree that the heat brought in via the ocean currents is a big wildcard, but until it comes in somewhere in the first 50M of the ocean, it is always going to be more of a potential than an actual driving force.

Or did I get that wrong?
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El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2239 on: July 19, 2018, 09:30:18 PM »

Where do you think the heat went?


Why don't we have more summer ice melt this year than was expected by the start of the year?  That has more than one answer but, generally, it's been a poor season for ice melt and a good season for retention of what ice we have left.

I do not think that is a satisfying answer, because it is 3 yrs in a row (record warm winters and "usual" summers.

The question is not only
1) why did not we have record breaking ice minima after extremely warm winters but also
 2) why did we have record breaking warm winters after no new ice minima

So the real problem is (and I do not know the answers to this): it seems that the seas up north are very warm (?) so the winters are much warmer than usual but despite this, summer melt is not as much as would follow from the above. Life is a mystery :)

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2240 on: July 19, 2018, 09:39:52 PM »
For 2018 the thing that REALLY surprises me is the Bering sea.  The straight never fully froze over, and was open in February. The ice edge was so far back from what it normally is.  Many articles were written even outside of sea ice geek circles about how unusual it was.

But the ice edge has moved back so incredibly slowly in the melting season it's getting close to normal there. What the heck happened?  Where did all that extra insolation go?  Was that heat shuffled off somewhere else (like out?)  I was almost sure all those warm bering sea waters would cause all kinds of melt and it absolutely didn't materialize.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2241 on: July 19, 2018, 09:43:14 PM »
Very true but what is the variance and at what depth does it influence?

From what I've seen the ocean circulation dives deep when it comes into the arctic and then only comes to the surface when being heavily mixed.  Requiring, mainly, weather to intervene.

On the other hand the three I have mentioned have direct impact on melt without any other influence.

I agree that the heat brought in via the ocean currents is a big wildcard, but until it comes in somewhere in the first 50M of the ocean, it is always going to be more of a potential than an actual driving force.

Or did I get that wrong?


Yes, and we don't know how long it takes for the ocean circulation and the halocline to reach equilibrium and how that affects the climate. My guess is that increased heat inputs take at least 1000 years to come into equilibrium in the worlds oceans. We have aleady perturbed that system. How long does it take the halocline to form and disperse? The cycle of less melt, weaker halocline, less ice, less melt may take a few years to actually reach equilibrium. It's far more complicated than just the amount of ice and the amount of heat.

I'm not sure anybody really understands exactly what happens to the halocline and thermocline at the point of melt at the edge of the ice, and that requires detailed observations hour by hour which I am sure will also be very noisy, but will allow us to predict how weather and sunlight and time of year affect the ice melt.

The Arctic is the canary in the coal mine. It shows AGW changes faster than any other place on the planet. We have to keep observing this complicated noisy system, making hypothesis, building models. Even if the models fail we gain understanding and hopefully can build a better model of this rapidly changing chaotic system, and, in the end, allow us to predict what will come now we have changed the earth.




NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2242 on: July 19, 2018, 09:46:27 PM »
2015/16 was a high El Nino.  But it stopped by Summer 2016 as I remember.  2016 was a warm but cloudy summer after an exceptional low ice start.  2017 was a warm but cloudy summer after an even more exceptional low ice start.

I recall jdallen talking about the extremely high snow cover in 2017.  This is also a factor but not one talked about a lot.

2018 is a cooler and cloudy summer after a moderate melt but exceptionally low ice start.  (although it is far from over).

The message, I would say, is that cloudy summer weather trumps exceptional low ice conditions.  That exceptional snow provides a barrier to insolation for longer than bare ice.

In short, the conditions for extensive melt are quite narrow and if one or two things are not conducive, then we won't get an exceptional melt.  As I said earlier, the Arctic is a very noisy signature with many factors contributing to both melt and ice preservation.  So follow the blue line.

For Now!

In 2007 we saw extreme, exceptional, summer melt conditions.  In 2012 we saw extreme storm melting conditions.

Since then?  Nothing that extreme.

My point is that when these extreme melt conditions return (and they will), the state of the ice will be such that virtual ice free conditions is something to be expected, rather than something to surprise.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2243 on: July 19, 2018, 09:50:33 PM »
The Arctic is the canary in the coal mine. It shows AGW changes faster than any other place on the planet. We have to keep observing this complicated noisy system, making hypothesis, building models. Even if the models fail we gain understanding and hopefully can build a better model of this rapidly changing chaotic system, and, in the end, allow us to predict what will come now we have changed the earth.

Indeed.  However the time to be able to observe, create more models and correct them, is becoming less.

It is only 10 years since we were guaranteed that the Arctic would be "ice free", at some time in summer, somewhere between 2040 and 2070.

I haven't been and checked what the climate scientists are predicting now, but I doubt 2070 is still in the picture.
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2244 on: July 19, 2018, 09:54:51 PM »
For 2018 the thing that REALLY surprises me is the Bering sea.  The straight never fully froze over, and was open in February. The ice edge was so far back from what it normally is.  Many articles were written even outside of sea ice geek circles about how unusual it was.

But the ice edge has moved back so incredibly slowly in the melting season it's getting close to normal there. What the heck happened?  Where did all that extra insolation go?  Was that heat shuffled off somewhere else (like out?)  I was almost sure all those warm bering sea waters would cause all kinds of melt and it absolutely didn't materialize.
I think one of the reason is that the two adjacent Seas to Chukchi Sea are the Beaufort Sea and the ESS, which both were very laggardish this year. So a clockwise rotation would push thick ice packs from the Beaufort Sea towards the ice edge and a counterclockwise rotation (as it seems to be now) will push excess ice from ESS towards the ice edge.

Bering has warmed much in the melting season (SST is up to 15°C in some of the bays on both sides). We have no thread for the freezing season 2018/2019 but I assume that freezing in the Bering Sea will be delayed very much this coming winter, and the situation for next spring will be comparable to 2018.
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2245 on: July 19, 2018, 10:03:41 PM »

Where do you think the heat went?


Why don't we have more summer ice melt this year than was expected by the start of the year?  That has more than one answer but, generally, it's been a poor season for ice melt and a good season for retention of what ice we have left.

I do not think that is a satisfying answer, because it is 3 yrs in a row (record warm winters and "usual" summers.

The question is not only
1) why did not we have record breaking ice minima after extremely warm winters but also
 2) why did we have record breaking warm winters after no new ice minima

So the real problem is (and I do not know the answers to this): it seems that the seas up north are very warm (?) so the winters are much warmer than usual but despite this, summer melt is not as much as would follow from the above. Life is a mystery :)
I listened very carefully to Prof Beckwith. In many of his videos he focuses on the Jet Stream and how it slows down and gets wavier. This waviness forms ridges, in which warmer air masses can move further north than they used to get. In summer the excess energy is needed up to melt the ice (→ no further warming as long as ice is there, see the DMI North of 80 T charts). But in winter many times warmer air masses led to temperature deviations of 10 or more °C from average. This makes winters much less cold than they used to be. In the long term this will have an impact on the amount of ice, especially its thickness and its integrity.
In addition these changed weather patterns may lead to "wetter, cloudier" weather with dominating low pressure zones in the Arctic (like this summer). This reduces sunshine and may prevent us from record melting summers, at least for a while...
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NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2246 on: July 19, 2018, 10:39:39 PM »
I was playing with the NSIDC chartic program and checking out the current Extent data.

The latest, at today is this.



The 2010 DMI 80N temps looked like this.



And the latest DMI 80N temps for 2018 look like this



I was going to post this yesterday so the images I have from Bremen are from yesterday (17th July images).

For 2010 it looked like this.



and for 2018 it looks like this



Another 2 weeks will give us a much clearer picture, but there are similarities which match on all fronts.

In another 2 weeks we will almost be at the beginning of the 2012 GAC.

What did Neven write about jaxa extent on the 11th August 2010?

Between brackets is the average daily SIE decrease for the first 10 days of August. 2012's average daily SIE decrease for those first 10 days is -109,125 km2 per day, which is simply stunning.

I think, given the current situation and the conditions required to even catch 2012, we can forget any kind of record.  What will be MUCH more interesting is just how much it does melt from now till the end of the season and what that roll on impact is into the 2018/19 freezing season.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2247 on: July 19, 2018, 11:08:51 PM »
IMO 2018 will outdo 2012's August losses. The long range EURO has a 591DM heat ridge building into the ATL near the Kara. The oceanic heat build-up is now raring its head at the same time all the FYI is collapsing.



You can clearly see this in satellite imagery and it is, IMO, confirmed by HYCOM ^. Extra oomph to numeric losses will also be provided by final melt-out of 95% of Kara and HB during this timeframe.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2248 on: July 20, 2018, 02:34:36 AM »
The last 30 days have been very warm over the NH continents and cool and cloudy over the Arctic ocean. The 500mb polar vortex has kept the cold air over the pole. This jet stream pattern is good for sea ice and bad for permafrost.

This little animation from NOAA's CDC shows the strong polar vortex for the past 30 days.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2249 on: July 20, 2018, 03:09:01 AM »
Early winter in the Canadian archipelago? Temperatures around zero with snow showers expected the next days for places like Mould Bay and Resolute. There should be accumulation at higher altitudes.