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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2450 on: July 31, 2018, 05:07:30 AM »
Today, it really looks on bad shape…
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Darvince

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2451 on: July 31, 2018, 05:25:37 AM »
I think the same problem that was plaguing us in the Hudson around the middle of the month is currently plaguing us in the Beaufort, as if you visit Worldview, you can see that there is very thick cloud cover over the area that processed AMSR2 currently thinks is open water. A few days ago there was pretty sorry looking ice there, but I doubt that it has entirely poofed and is a sizeable chunk of time out (perhaps August 7th-15th?) from melting completely.

Viggy

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2452 on: July 31, 2018, 05:48:16 AM »
I think the same problem that was plaguing us in the Hudson around the middle of the month is currently plaguing us in the Beaufort, as if you visit Worldview, you can see that there is very thick cloud cover over the area that processed AMSR2 currently thinks is open water.

Don't think that's the issue this time around. The Worldview snapshot of that exact area from July 26 shows a lot of blue water and the air temp anomaly of that region from earlier today shows a lot of heat passing over it.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2453 on: July 31, 2018, 05:56:39 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2454 on: July 31, 2018, 06:02:18 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Great animation!

And from my point of view, it seems that a big ASI area on Beaufort just disappeared!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2455 on: July 31, 2018, 07:49:47 AM »
July 26-30.

RikW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2456 on: July 31, 2018, 09:36:32 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Great animation!

And from my point of view, it seems that a big ASI area on Beaufort just disappeared!

I tried to check it on worldview but it's too cloudy, so I have no idea if it's true or not.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2457 on: July 31, 2018, 09:53:49 AM »
My polite guess is that some of the ice will reappear but that it is the anticipation of the state of the ice within a few days, averaging in continuous century melts.
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Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2458 on: July 31, 2018, 11:20:47 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Thanks for the animation, but please try to make it a bit smaller, 13.5 MB is too much. I know those CO2-spewing servers are on anyway, but there comes a point where we have to stop building more.

Back on topic. There I was on my blog talking about how we might see some detachment soon, and here it is already (oh nice, my attachment is called detachment  ;) ):
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2459 on: July 31, 2018, 01:25:57 PM »


Great animation!

And from my point of view, it seems that a big ASI area on Beaufort just disappeared!
It reminds me about the "double century decline" around mid July in the Hudson Bay, which was a "false alarm". But I am quite sure that big parts of Beaufort sea ice will disappear through mid/end August.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2460 on: July 31, 2018, 01:59:35 PM »
Polarview, Beaufort, jul30.
Today's ecmwf wave and temperature from windy
Worldview Beaufort/Cab, jul28-29 showing thick ice export into the Mclure strait.(higher contrast below)

be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2461 on: July 31, 2018, 04:27:17 PM »
please Uniquorn change your gifs etc to click-on to run .. asking here as private request ignored . I appreciate your gifts but not the price I/we pay to see them run and run .. b.c.
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Darvince

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2462 on: July 31, 2018, 04:56:45 PM »
Thanks uniquorn, it makes it apparent that the area that has poofed on AMSR2 is about 20-40% ice covered still, which is worse off than I thought, but not open water.

I'll move my projection for when this ice is really gone to between August 4th and 8th.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2463 on: July 31, 2018, 05:59:52 PM »
Thanks uniquorn, it makes it apparent that the area that has poofed on AMSR2 is about 20-40% ice covered still, which is worse off than I thought, but not open water.

I'll move my projection for when this ice is really gone to between August 4th and 8th.
That's about 10 days earlier than mine, based on what happened in the Kara, and still earlier in the Bering.

Per A-TEAM's analysis at the start of the season, we will still be left with many isolated "small" MYI  islands after the thinner FYI and 2nd year ice disappears.  Those relics may or may not survive the season depending on the weather.

On the Atlantic side I'm expecting some of the same behavior to play out in the Laptev, and keen to see how bite a "Laptev bite" we end up with.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2464 on: July 31, 2018, 07:56:19 PM »
please Uniquorn change your gifs etc to click-on to run .. asking here as private request ignored . I appreciate your gifts but not the price I/we pay to see them run and run .. b.c.
ok. Good view of ice north of Greenland today, https://tinyurl.com/y7hays4g

Steven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2465 on: July 31, 2018, 07:58:09 PM »
Latest weekly 7-day MODIS composite from environment Canada (top left), compared with the same period in 2017 (top right), 2016 (bottom left) and 2015 (bottom right):




2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.

Istari

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2466 on: July 31, 2018, 09:38:34 PM »
Looks like DMI have to update the scale on there abnormality map.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2467 on: July 31, 2018, 11:45:40 PM »
Looks like DMI have to update the scale on there abnormality map.

Indeed DMI do. GFS SST anomaly image attached 6+ celsius in large parts of the Baltic. Perhaps GFS will have to up the scale too (to n degrees, where n is unreasonably high).
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2468 on: August 01, 2018, 12:27:41 AM »
Some really warm air is entering the basin around Svalbard, and will proceed across the basin over the next few days, expelling all the cold air to the peripheries, under a high. More excitement(how much can the ice take?). I've include the 850hPa forecast for late tomorrow

 The area  northeast of Greenland near fram is also showing reduced concentration on the AMSR2 map and Worldview. We could end up with much retreat in that region unless the pack/weather exports ice that way. I think if we see the arctic splitting its forces into detachments that's a sign the End is getting near

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2469 on: August 01, 2018, 12:33:40 AM »
Some really warm air is entering the basin around Svalbard, and will proceed across the basin over the next few days, expelling all the cold air to the peripheries, under a high. More excitement(how much can the ice take?). I've include the 850hPa forecast for late tomorrow

Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2470 on: August 01, 2018, 12:36:01 AM »
Towards Siberia  looking far more solid than same date 2012
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

liefde

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2471 on: August 01, 2018, 12:52:40 AM »
Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.
The dramatic and non-stop rise in CO2, CH4, Halocarbons, N2O. How anyone still questions that is beyond me.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2472 on: August 01, 2018, 02:09:11 AM »
Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.
The dramatic and non-stop rise in CO2, CH4, Halocarbons, N2O. How anyone still questions that is beyond me.

Non-response response.

Now....anyone have a clue on the proximate cause?

Killian

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2473 on: August 01, 2018, 02:36:22 AM »
Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?


Now....anyone have a clue on the proximate cause?

In my opinion, look at the AO. It just went negative after a long period of being in positive territory. Temps seem up a bit, too.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2474 on: August 01, 2018, 03:12:44 AM »
Some really warm air is entering the basin around Svalbard, and will proceed across the basin over the next few days, expelling all the cold air to the peripheries, under a high. More excitement(how much can the ice take?). I've include the 850hPa forecast for late tomorrow


That warm air is also bringing what looks like sustained wind blowing from svalbard across to the chukchi, in kind of a reverse transpolar drift. I wonder how much ice will shift over to the pacific side? If it does, will it melt, is the open water on the Pacific side warm enough to melt it? In any case, the Atlantic front is going to get pushed back and melt quite a bit.

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2475 on: August 01, 2018, 03:13:44 AM »
Some really warm air is entering the basin around Svalbard, and will proceed across the basin over the next few days, expelling all the cold air to the peripheries, under a high. More excitement(how much can the ice take?). I've include the 850hPa forecast for late tomorrow

Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.

Go back and read the posts from Hyperion and Fishoutofwater from earlier in the melt season that discuss the enormous amount of warm water that moved into the North Atlantic from the warm "blob" along the Eastern United States. 

Then look at the current set up of the high and low pressure systems and you will have your answer. 

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2476 on: August 01, 2018, 03:23:12 AM »

Non-response response.

Now....anyone have a clue on the proximate cause?
[/quote]


Last year at this time the worst one could see in an otherwise strong jet stream was it would split... This past winter it seemed to have completely separated into two w/ 250mb level acting an awful lot like the 500mb level used to... consistently crossing into the arctic.  Kelvin Wave cannot be ruled out and even a deepening level of permafrost will begin to allow surface temps higher.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2477 on: August 01, 2018, 03:50:43 AM »
We have had an atmospheric circulation vortex around Greenland for over 3 months that was brought on by the major stratospheric warming in February. That stratospheric warming was caused by the strongest wave driving event, which drove energy upwards from the troposphere to the top of the stratosphere, on record.

High drama in rarefied air

This winter, on February 12, 2018, most of us probably were unaware of the compelling drama unfolding high above the Arctic.  The stratospheric polar vortex, the region of west-to-east winds that circle 6 to 30 miles above the pole, (1) experienced a massive breakdown.  The normally west-to-east winds suddenly slowed and switched direction completely as the stratosphere rapidly warmed more than 50 degrees F in a matter of days (see figure below). .....

Why did this sudden stratospheric warming occur? And more importantly (for blog purposes, at least), why should you care?  Let’s start with the first why. Under the right conditions in winter (2), large atmospheric waves (more than 1000 miles across) travel from the lower atmosphere into the stratosphere. These waves break in the stratosphere, like ocean waves on a beach, transferring a tremendous amount of energy to the atmosphere.

The effect is to slow down the winds of the polar vortex (sometimes splitting it into two smaller vortices).  As the winds slow, air sinks and rapidly warms while the stratospheric air is compressed. This sequence of events is exactly what happened this past February—in fact, we experienced a record-breaking movement of large-scale waves into the stratosphere...




https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-and-march-madness-how-winds-miles-above-arctic-may-have-brought

The atmosphere has been destabilized by GHGs. Sudden stratospheric warmings are getting stronger as predicted by climate models. This is affecting summers in the Arctic. The SSW transferred momentum downwards to the tropospheric jet stream, expanding it to record momentum levels in late February and March. After the atmosphere blew its energy in March like a Vegas gambler the jet stream retreated into a vortex around Greenland linked to a track displaced polewards of normal over the Pacific and western north America. Intense high pressure over the subtropical north Atlantic and strong trade winds over the tropics drove heat northwards out of the tropical Atlantic.


muri

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2478 on: August 01, 2018, 04:59:26 AM »
Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.
Maybe the persisting ridge which has been in north of Scandinavia is directing all excess heat and moisture to northern latitudes.

Whole of northern Europe has been in heatwave for a few months, being +10-20 Celsius above normal. All rain has been diverted to arctic ocean for over 3 months. The arctic sea coast has been in tropical temperatures for some weeks now, without the rain for actual tropical climate.

I think the ice is probably melting from below. There is not enough research done from below the surface, and I don't think analysis from air is sufficient.

Baltic sea SST anomaly is off the charts (from climate reanalyzer), more than +6 Celsius. After the jet stream changes the pattern soon, as is in the GFS forecast, all that heat from north will continue to be released to northern latitudes as the ground, lakes and sea cool down.

Maybe I'm doing gross assumptions

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2479 on: August 01, 2018, 06:07:28 AM »
Blink blink. Going left or right?
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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2480 on: August 01, 2018, 06:26:08 AM »
Blink blink. Going left or right?
I think clouds are playing havoc with the sensor/algorithm. The blinking is crazy. I note the Beaufort did recover some of yesterday's lost ground. And in the ESS I am certain the 100% concentration area with the straight border is an artifact.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2481 on: August 01, 2018, 06:30:35 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 8 consecutive daily maps spanning 7 days and ending at 2018-07-31...
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 06:43:00 AM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2482 on: August 01, 2018, 07:50:12 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2483 on: August 01, 2018, 08:11:46 AM »
Some really warm air is entering the basin around Svalbard, and will proceed across the basin over the next few days, expelling all the cold air to the peripheries, under a high. More excitement(how much can the ice take?). I've include the 850hPa forecast for late tomorrow

Have we any idea what is forcing the warm air?  Is it the tropics?  The Gulf Stream?

I smell another change happening and I can't figure out what the proximate cause is.

Go back and read the posts from Hyperion and Fishoutofwater from earlier in the melt season that discuss the enormous amount of warm water that moved into the North Atlantic from the warm "blob" along the Eastern United States. 

Then look at the current set up of the high and low pressure systems and you will have your answer.

The heat is coming from continental Europe, its been incredibly warm in Sweden, Finland, NW Russia as well as areas further south, and a really hot airmass accumulated there

mostly_lurking

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2484 on: August 01, 2018, 08:26:00 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.
Define "clear out".

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2485 on: August 01, 2018, 08:44:04 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.
Define "clear out".

I think he is talking about cloud cover clearing out, but maybe im wrong.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2486 on: August 01, 2018, 08:47:42 AM »
July was cloudy in the Arctic Basin & low pressure systems dominated.

But now a big high pressure system has set up towards the Russian side and looks like it is going to stay for at least the next few days.

So expecting plenty of sun, especially towards the Russian side, as well as warmer winds from the Atlantic sweeping over the 'ice sanctuary' north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2487 on: August 01, 2018, 09:03:05 AM »
'blink blink' winds shifting near 180 ?

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2488 on: August 01, 2018, 09:53:43 AM »
We have had an atmospheric circulation vortex around Greenland for over 3 months that was brought on by the major stratospheric warming in February....

the jet stream retreated into a vortex around Greenland linked to a track displaced polewards of normal over the Pacific and western north America. Intense high pressure over the subtropical north Atlantic and strong trade winds over the tropics drove heat northwards out of the tropical Atlantic.

Does the setup of the past months resemble a two-cell system instead of the classic three-cell system setup in the NH? If it stays like that also for the winter, what are the consequences?

Nikita

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2489 on: August 01, 2018, 09:53:55 AM »
Wow.

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 10:00:44 AM by Nikita »

Pavel

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2490 on: August 01, 2018, 10:18:59 AM »
Wow.

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
Sorry for off topic, but I do like to swim in the Baltic sea now. I can't remember ever such warm water conditions

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2491 on: August 01, 2018, 10:45:21 AM »
Wow.

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
Sorry for off topic, but I do like to swim in the Baltic sea now. I can't remember ever such warm water conditions
Finnish meteo institute measured highest Ts ever for Northern Baltic just recently, over +27 and I agree on swimming, too bad it's 15 minutes off water and you're just as hot than before. More Off Topic, I'm starting to understand wet t-shirt contests a bit now.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Capt Kiwi

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2492 on: August 01, 2018, 11:01:25 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.

Bring back Hyperion!   ;D

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2493 on: August 01, 2018, 11:42:23 AM »
Wow.

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
This is slightly off-topic, but how warm does the Baltic have to get before an anoxic overturning event occurs and large amounts of hydrogen sulfide are released? I cannot recall a body of relatively fresh water of such substantial size reaching such anomalous temps before. Obviously the Gulf of Mexico can get very warm but it normally gets warm anyways so the diff between 85F and 90F doesn't kill everything (also, it's salty). But the Baltic? When the differential is 15F, I would think mass die-offs/ etc become much more likely, as well as a possibly catastrophic overturning whenever the first major autumnal cyclone hits.

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2494 on: August 01, 2018, 12:04:05 PM »
Folks, please move the Baltic discussion to an appropriate existing thread (or even a new one). Not all weather and climate-related discussions belong here in this thread.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2495 on: August 01, 2018, 03:44:03 PM »
Does the setup of the past months resemble a two-cell system instead of the classic three-cell system setup in the NH? If it stays like that also for the winter, what are the consequences?

What I have noticed is a hybrid 3/2 pattern where there are 3 cells on one side of the NH and 2 on the other. The 3/2 pattern advects heat into the polar regions very effectively. Winter patterns are very different from summer patterns because there is no stratospheric polar night jet and the flow and thermal gradients are much weaker in the summer.

liefde

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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2497 on: August 01, 2018, 06:22:11 PM »
Good view of the ice north of Greenland today, https://tinyurl.com/ycnykh9y

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2498 on: August 01, 2018, 07:07:24 PM »
The size of the rubble (mélange) off the NW Greenland coast is finer than it was this time of year in previous years back to 2009.  It looks similar to 2008 (EOSDIS Worldview)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2499 on: August 01, 2018, 07:17:25 PM »
since the ice north of greenland is not stationary but imported mostly it's ore or less arbitrary, exactly like where exactly each year we have thicker or thinner ice.

it depends on currents and prevailing winds a lot where the ice is driven and when during the year so that one year a specific type of ice is accumulated in one region and in another the next season.

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