From what I can tell, we're not beating 2012 anytime soon! Look how long the ice off of East Siberia has been there and the pack looks just as strong. If the High was over Beaufort to melt the weak ice, this may have gone faster... This will definitely weaken the pack for next year though!!
You are unfortunately likely incorrect, COPERNICUS shows almost all of the ESS going "poof" in the next week or so. Much of the Laptev is also about to meet the same fate. If we are not neck and neck with 2012 by 8/10 I will be quite surprised.
I think the main question is now whether the lobe of higher concentration ice on the ATL side of the pole will melt out entirely or not. At the moment, forecast models are not promising for its sustained existence.
he said:
how long it has been there, not how long it will be there
further i agree with him, at least when is was looking closely the current bad conditions for the ice is either over CAB or over open water while where the ice that would melt within days under the same conditions is relatively cold and will stay that way for quite some days and in about 2-3 weeks momentum will decease rapidly except if we would see a really long living GAC that at the same time woule bring very warm air into the pacific side. the atlantic side will further give way but never in a way that would make a new low or big surprise.
the ice in the beaufort and adjacent to it is very vulnerable but as mentioned above, that's exactly where temps will be below average, even below zero over vast stretches.
look at barrows temps, 1C as compared to around 10C before and even 17C a week ago and that's without cooling ice and it's influenced by warmth over land.
it will go very much lower than we thought in june IMO but witout an extraordinary weather event it won't do a new low IMO.
let's see and try not to sound like things would be certain and inevitable, we don't know which is why we should reason carefully.
also the warm winds into the CAB are not blowing infinitely as stated above, they are absolutely certainly to both, to abate as well as to cool down eventually.