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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2500 on: August 01, 2018, 07:23:59 PM »
I think the extreme atlantification and affiliated retreat of the ice edge (which will probably get quite a bit worse in the next few weeks) will allow a lot of heat to penetrate above 80N during the beginning of the freezing season.  The area between Greenland and the North Pole will likely not begin adding thickness in earnest until quick a bit later than the past few years, and its already much thinner. This could set up next summer for extreme fragility in what used to be the prime region of thick ridged ice.
big time oops

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2501 on: August 01, 2018, 07:34:57 PM »
Over the last couple of weeks we see some fast ice lifting off northern tip of Greenland - Cape Morris Jesup area.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2502 on: August 01, 2018, 07:39:50 PM »
reading the ever increasing amount of fu...k and hell kind of vocabulary here, i guess we have a huge amount of HarleyDavidson driving "Chapters" acquired to the forum, not saying that would be a bad thing, would bring us electric Harleys a bit sooner perhaps LOL

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2503 on: August 01, 2018, 07:56:03 PM »
The size of the rubble (mélange) off the NW Greenland coast is finer than it was this time of year in previous years back to 2009.  It looks similar to 2008

The darkness in 2018 suggests it is much thinner.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2504 on: August 01, 2018, 09:01:05 PM »
I see that darkness.  More space between the tiny floes (that is, within the mélange) would make the appearance darker. The 2018 image is, however, fuzzier  than the others, so I wonder if there is some light mist or fog affecting the image.  The biggest floes are a bit darker (2018 vs. 2008), too, and I doubt thickness is an issue for them. 

Some years (2008 and 2016) show significantly more melting in the Greenland fjords than 2018, but snow cover on the Greenland rocks appears similar to me. 
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2505 on: August 02, 2018, 01:46:33 AM »
Folks, please move the Baltic discussion to an appropriate existing thread (or even a new one). Not all weather and climate-related discussions belong here in this thread.

thank you

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2506 on: August 02, 2018, 01:49:25 AM »
The size of the rubble (mélange) off the NW Greenland coast is finer than it was this time of year in previous years back to 2009.  It looks similar to 2008 (EOSDIS Worldview)

looks worse than 2008 to me

subgeometer

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2507 on: August 02, 2018, 03:52:35 AM »


Does the setup of the past months resemble a two-cell system instead of the classic three-cell system setup in the NH? If it stays like that also for the winter, what are the consequences?

The way the lows were repeatedly ratcheted into the Arctic seas, attached to troughs drawing hot air from the mid latitudes suggests the Arctic cannot keep itself separated from the lower latitudes. As a relative newcomer here I don't have a sense of how new or unusual that is, when time permits I'll try to find reanalysis of previous summers for comparison(Climate Reanalyser publishes the whole years worth at the start of the new year).

JAXA is offline for a few days. Arctic ROOS' ssmi is now showing extent at record low since a couple of days ago, just at the time the recent years begin to diverge(area starts doing the same about a week or 10 days earlier - on ROOS, area is still relatively high, a week ago it was highest for the decade!). 2012 started its big plunge a few days further into August. Interesting times.

Arctic ROOS is at https://arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2508 on: August 02, 2018, 06:02:43 AM »
Showing a week's action of the Arctic sea ice, ending with today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, so 8 consecutive daily maps spanning 7 days and ending at 2018-08-01...

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2509 on: August 02, 2018, 08:13:14 AM »
The 00z gfs would be EPIC.

We would see likely unprecedented melting over the entire basin this time of year.

The laptev is getting the brakes beat off it as it looks now.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2510 on: August 02, 2018, 08:26:01 AM »
July 28 - August 1.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2511 on: August 02, 2018, 09:47:05 AM »
The 00z gfs would be EPIC.

We would see likely unprecedented melting over the entire basin this time of year.

The laptev is getting the brakes beat off it as it looks now.
Yup, that is a good description. Even just looking at the near term, the Laptev and Barents side CAB will get stomped on.
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RikW

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2512 on: August 02, 2018, 10:39:28 AM »
Clear worldview images :) One advantage of clear skies. Unfortunately it's probably bad for the ice...

I think everything to the left of the red arrow is, especially if melting conditions aren't unfavorable, at risk to completely meltout, seeing the state of the ice. Luckily only about 6 weeks till melting season ends.

And the part between the orange lines doesn't look that good either, if that melts out the CAB falls apart...


uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2513 on: August 02, 2018, 11:29:01 AM »
Today's ecmwf wam (waves) from windy

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2514 on: August 02, 2018, 01:29:28 PM »
At last a good view of the thicker ice north of Severnaya Zemlya.
Ascat mar21-jul31 to show the rough location, Every 4th frame, 361kb
Worldview, aug2 zooming in and enhancing. 966kb, click to run

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2515 on: August 02, 2018, 01:34:14 PM »
...
The way the lows were repeatedly ratcheted into the Arctic seas, attached to troughs drawing hot air from the mid latitudes suggests the Arctic cannot keep itself separated from the lower latitudes. As a relative newcomer here I don't have a sense of how new or unusual that is, when time permits I'll try to find reanalysis of previous summers for comparison(Climate Reanalyser publishes the whole years worth at the start of the new year).
...
It's new circa ~2000s. Suggesting to check 1990s or better even 1980s, if possible, to see the "old mode". On the largest scale, we have Arctic amplification reducing temperature difference between Arctic and temperate belt, which process is weakening Polar Vortex, which leads to more and more frequent and large masses of air to move in and out of Arctic rapidly. Which is obviously one major positive feedback which further accelerates the amplification, of course.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2516 on: August 02, 2018, 05:15:47 PM »
Worldview, north of Greenland jul27-aug2. 2.04mb click to run
Floes starting to drift westward

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2517 on: August 02, 2018, 05:29:48 PM »
We can also see the fast ice being detached and immediately starting to crumble.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2518 on: August 02, 2018, 07:04:34 PM »
Damn, 13C is not cold. Can someone comment on the historical precedent for this sort of thing?
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 07:46:42 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2519 on: August 02, 2018, 07:26:52 PM »
Damn, 13C is not cold. Can someone comment on the historical precedent for this short of thing?
There might be a bit of a Chinook/Föhn effect as the wind seems to cross the (relative) heights of NE Greenland, could make as much as 5-7 deg C extra, this doesn't help too much, dry heat melts the ice just as well. On Torne River valley they may wait for these to happen every spring as ice might break and let them to set their nets again after winter fishing.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2520 on: August 02, 2018, 07:47:05 PM »
The 00z gfs would be EPIC.

We would see likely unprecedented melting over the entire basin this time of year.

The laptev is getting the brakes beat off it as it looks now.

this kind of post is always nice with a link talking about energy efficiency ;)

HapHazard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2521 on: August 02, 2018, 07:59:17 PM »
We can also see the fast ice being detached and immediately starting to crumble.
I hope that's just a minor variance & not the start of some sort of trend... Geez.

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2522 on: August 02, 2018, 07:59:45 PM »
Today is the big day -- when the UH AMSR2 archive first kicked in, making 2012 available for day-on-day comparisons henceforth with this season. That is fortunate because the Great Arctic Cyclone arrived soon after, allowing us to see its effect on sea ice concentration (and allowing us to guess what something similar this month might do for 2018).

Quote
On August 2, 2012, an extratropical low formed over Siberia. During the next few days, the storm slowly drifted into the Arctic Ocean, while gradually strengthening. On August 5, the storm reached the Arctic Ocean and began to rapidly intensify, while drifting closer to the North Pole.

On August 6, the extratropical cyclone reached a peak intensity of 962 mbar (28.4 inHg), while centered about halfway between Alaska and the North Pole. At this point, the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 was the strongest summer Arctic storm on record, since the beginning of records in 1979.

 Afterward, the storm slowly began to weaken, while drifting towards Canada. On August 12, the cyclone made landfall in the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and slowly moved eastward across land, while rapidly weakening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Arctic_Cyclone_of_2012
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-storm-part-1.html

Technical note: It is possible to spoof javascript resp. CSS3/ jQuery (unsupported in forum software) within mp4 for purposes of comparing two images via a comparison image slider that reveals a movable portion of a second window, to be posted here in a bit for Aug 1st 2012/2018.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 09:03:31 PM by A-Team »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2523 on: August 02, 2018, 08:56:14 PM »
The models are showing a never-ending heatwave over the High Arctic. This is through 216 and each frame between now and then is just about as horrible.


marcel_g

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2524 on: August 02, 2018, 09:40:15 PM »
The models are showing a never-ending heatwave over the High Arctic. This is through 216 and each frame between now and then is just about as horrible.


While the forecast looks like a lot of clear skies over this area, how does the temperature anomaly at 850mb translate into surface heat or ice melting?

We can see heat and wind and moisture coming in from Svalbard area on the Atlantic side, so I’d guess we’ll see melting on that front too.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2525 on: August 02, 2018, 10:03:23 PM »
how does the temperature anomaly at 850mb translate into surface heat or ice melting?
Warmer air generates more infrared radiation to ice. Not much, however ice has low infrared albedo.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 10:16:24 PM by Aluminium »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2526 on: August 02, 2018, 10:35:59 PM »
i often hear "clear skies" is there a scientific definition of clear skyies that is different from "no clouds" ?

looking at the image below you know why i'm asking ;)

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2527 on: August 02, 2018, 11:12:39 PM »
From what I can tell, we're not beating 2012 anytime soon!  Look how long the ice off of East Siberia has been there and the pack looks just as strong.  If the High was over Beaufort to melt the weak ice, this may have gone faster... This will definitely weaken the pack for next year though!!
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2528 on: August 02, 2018, 11:19:37 PM »
From what I can tell, we're not beating 2012 anytime soon!  Look how long the ice off of East Siberia has been there and the pack looks just as strong.  If the High was over Beaufort to melt the weak ice, this may have gone faster... This will definitely weaken the pack for next year though!!
You are unfortunately likely incorrect, COPERNICUS shows almost all of the ESS going "poof" in the next week or so. Much of the Laptev is also about to meet the same fate. If we are not neck and neck with 2012 by 8/10 I will be quite surprised.

I think the main question is now whether the lobe of higher concentration ice on the ATL side of the pole will melt out entirely or not. At the moment, forecast models are not promising for its sustained existence.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2529 on: August 02, 2018, 11:34:03 PM »
From what I can tell, we're not beating 2012 anytime soon!  Look how long the ice off of East Siberia has been there and the pack looks just as strong.  If the High was over Beaufort to melt the weak ice, this may have gone faster... This will definitely weaken the pack for next year though!!
You are unfortunately likely incorrect, COPERNICUS shows almost all of the ESS going "poof" in the next week or so. Much of the Laptev is also about to meet the same fate. If we are not neck and neck with 2012 by 8/10 I will be quite surprised.

I think the main question is now whether the lobe of higher concentration ice on the ATL side of the pole will melt out entirely or not. At the moment, forecast models are not promising for its sustained existence.

he said:

how long it has been there, not how long it will be there

further i agree with him, at least when is was looking closely the current bad conditions for the ice is either over CAB or over open water while where the ice that would melt within days under the same conditions is relatively cold and will stay that way for quite some days and in about 2-3 weeks momentum will decease rapidly except if we would see a really long living GAC that at the same time woule bring very warm air into the pacific side. the  atlantic side will further give way but never in a way that would make a new low or big surprise.

the ice in the beaufort and adjacent to it is very vulnerable but as mentioned above, that's exactly where temps will be below average, even below zero over vast stretches.

look at barrows temps, 1C as compared to around 10C before and even 17C a week ago and that's without cooling ice and it's influenced by warmth over land.

it will go very much lower than we thought in june IMO but witout an extraordinary weather event it won't do a new low IMO.

let's see and try not to sound like things would be certain and inevitable, we don't know which is why we should reason carefully.

also the warm winds into the CAB are not blowing infinitely as stated above, they are absolutely certainly to both, to abate as well as to cool down eventually.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2530 on: August 02, 2018, 11:47:14 PM »
A small lift off between the Mclure strait and our thickest ice.
Worldview jul30-Aug2, 1.44mb, click to run
edit:Ice lifted off in the same place jun6-21.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 12:14:49 AM by uniquorn »

be cause

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2531 on: August 03, 2018, 12:00:26 AM »
n what looked like the greatest 'game-on ' shot ever I've been watching a 13x8km chunk of ice get set up and booted off the N. tip of Greenland into the Arctic 'soup'. Since launch 2 days ago it has travelled over 30 km toward the pole . I for one will be following it's progress .. :)
The last few days action N of Greenland had me go back to look at the fun in late Feburary when a similar event weatherwise was a revelation on nighttime Worldview.
for winter viewing of the ice .. this leads you to Worldview back in 02/2018 https://tinyurl.comydyv7ch6 .. damn .. I don't know how to underline .. :)   lol .. it does it itself ..

For the creative among you .. either event would be well worth a gif .. b.c.

ps .. I am enjoying the 'observer' status that Worldview (and mahy of you ) allow me at such a pivotal time ..
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 12:57:09 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2532 on: August 03, 2018, 12:25:21 AM »
At tropicaltidbits.com, all of the NAVGEM, GFS and ECMWF forecasts agree that the big high pressure system currently dominating weather over the Arctic Ocean will remain strong for at least the next week.

NASA's Worldview display shows that the high pressure has already cleared away the clouds over much of the Arctic Basic, especially on the Russian side - as shown in the screen capture below.

This persistent high pressure would presumably have wreaked havoc with the Arctic sea ice pack if it had parked up sooner after the summer solstice, exposing the ice to direct sunlight at its strongest. Even in the first half of August, there will still be plenty of solar energy shining down on the exposed ice in the Arctic Basin. How much deterioration of the ice will it cause anyway?
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 12:31:12 AM by slow wing »

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2533 on: August 03, 2018, 02:30:59 AM »
I AGREE with the down trend of this graph and an eventual blue ocean but I think it hides the fact that the last remaining ice is at the center of the pack and thus, well away from land where heat builds the most and melts the ice the fastest, thus a 'slight tapering off' of the downward trend of the graph should be expected... Really just semantics at this point though as the extreme weather and jet stream disruption (not to mention warming of the ESAS) are already affecting us.  Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!!  I agree the ice 'could go' any year now... a 1-in-6 chance per year depending on the weather seems just about right!?  Add the expected El Nino this winter and Next year I bet those odds are DOUBLED!!!  I have followed you guys almost hourly for two years now...!  I think we all are surprised to see the ice hanging on after 80-N temps kept so high in the fall of 2016 and so on with such drastic global ice measures!  I'm a published disaster planner... One thing I will guarantee you is that events down here due to rain bombs, extreme TEMPS and the disasters they brew will get SOO bad that even when the arctic boils with Everglades level heat,  other Hurricane Harvey-level disasters down here will be SOO BAD few will even notice!!!   
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2534 on: August 03, 2018, 04:41:42 AM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.

The reason for this is cold continents/warm ocean.  Heat lost from land during low insolation will permit temperatures to drop far further than they will over the ocean, and by extension will tend to cool Hudson Bay as it is pretty much completely land locked.
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Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2535 on: August 03, 2018, 05:16:27 AM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.

The reason for this is cold continents/warm ocean.  Heat lost from land during low insolation will permit temperatures to drop far further than they will over the ocean, and by extension will tend to cool Hudson Bay as it is pretty much completely land locked.

Since we are speculating, I would add to this that IMHO if the CAB goes ice free it will be because of changing ocean currents and a loss of the stratification between cold fresh water and warm salty water.  If those changes occur, the Hudson would be largely insulated because of its landlocked location.   

Therefore, I would expect it to continue to freeze as long as the air in the NH stays cold enough. 
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 05:26:09 AM by Rod »

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2536 on: August 03, 2018, 05:31:01 AM »
A week's action in the Arctic sea ice as shown by U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps, ending with 2018-08-02...

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2537 on: August 03, 2018, 06:03:29 AM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.

The reason for this is cold continents/warm ocean.  Heat lost from land during low insolation will permit temperatures to drop far further than they will over the ocean, and by extension will tend to cool Hudson Bay as it is pretty much completely land locked.

Since we are speculating, I would add to this that IMHO if the CAB goes ice free it will be because of changing ocean currents and a loss of the stratification between cold fresh water and warm salty water.  If those changes occur, the Hudson would be largely insulated because of its landlocked location.   

Therefore, I would expect it to continue to freeze as long as the air in the NH stays cold enough.

It’s hard to say, there’s a lot of factors. The CAB will eventually melt out here soon, and no specific factor needs to be the reason.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2538 on: August 03, 2018, 10:56:20 AM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.

The reason for this is cold continents/warm ocean.  Heat lost from land during low insolation will permit temperatures to drop far further than they will over the ocean, and by extension will tend to cool Hudson Bay as it is pretty much completely land locked.

And the Hudson Bay Sea is very shallow (and low salinity) - so not much of a heat sink when winter comes (and freezes at a higher temperature).

Wikipedia:-
Quote
The bay is relatively shallow and is considered an epicontinental sea, with an average depth of about 100 m (330 ft) (compared to 2,600 m (8,500 ft) in the Bay of Bengal). It is about 1,370 km (850 mi) long and 1,050 km (650 mi) wide.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2539 on: August 03, 2018, 11:26:42 AM »
Relatively cool July:
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deconstruct

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2540 on: August 03, 2018, 11:53:11 AM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.
And I am pretty sure, that the Hudson Bay as well as the North Pole will always* freeze in winter. On the North Pole you have 180 days of no sunlight, that will always be much below zero, no matter what. Average temperature in Winter is around -30°C at the North Pole and -20°C over most of Hudson Bay. So even if temperaturs would raise globally by 15°C, it would still be well below freezing in many areas there and therefore ice would form.



* Well, at least for the next tens of thousands of years. On geological timescales everything can happen.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2541 on: August 03, 2018, 12:00:23 PM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.
And I am pretty sure, that the Hudson Bay as well as the North Pole will always* freeze in winter. On the North Pole you have 180 days of no sunlight, that will always be much below zero, no matter what. Average temperature in Winter is around -30°C at the North Pole and -20°C over most of Hudson Bay. So even if temperaturs would raise globally by 15°C, it would still be well below freezing in many areas there and therefore ice would form.



* Well, at least for the next tens of thousands of years. On geological timescales everything can happen.
Not to be annoying but this is not related to the 2018 melt season and belongs in another thread.

Also: the 00z EURO maintains the heat dome over the High Arctic until the end of its run. We may see blips higher and lower here and there due to clouds messing with sensors but, IMO, we will see sustained century+ extent drops through at least the next 10 days. If 2018 doesn't exactly match 2012, this will still put it ahead of all other years in the record, as each and every other summer saw a major slowdown in melt beginning in about seven days.

Tetra

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2542 on: August 03, 2018, 12:34:57 PM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.
And I am pretty sure, that the Hudson Bay as well as the North Pole will always* freeze in winter. On the North Pole you have 180 days of no sunlight, that will always be much below zero, no matter what. Average temperature in Winter is around -30°C at the North Pole and -20°C over most of Hudson Bay. So even if temperaturs would raise globally by 15°C, it would still be well below freezing in many areas there and therefore ice would form.



* Well, at least for the next tens of thousands of years. On geological timescales everything can happen.
Not to be annoying but this is not related to the 2018 melt season and belongs in another thread.

Also: the 00z EURO maintains the heat dome over the High Arctic until the end of its run. We may see blips higher and lower here and there due to clouds messing with sensors but, IMO, we will see sustained century+ extent drops through at least the next 10 days. If 2018 doesn't exactly match 2012, this will still put it ahead of all other years in the record, as each and every other summer saw a major slowdown in melt beginning in about seven days.

I highly doubt this. Because 2012 was such a wild humdinger of a year. You've also got to be aware that even with a minimum of 4.2 on Jaxa (third lowest), this puts its 200k ahead of second place (2016 with 4.0) and a 1million ahead of first (2012 with 3.1). It's still pretty darn low, but within the average.

Although there is high pressure, the solar power of the sun is also much lower as it's long after the solstice. It's already bang on average on the Jaxa reading, the average is 75k and the melt yesterday was 75k. See? Where already slowing down from century breaks.

Therefore I think the remaining melt will be more on average. There might be a century drop or two (or three or even four. I'm not disputing the ice is in bad shape, because it is, but the melt is slowing down and the central pack is still pretty tight. That's where the minimum counts. At the moment the final areas that don't really matter in accordance with the minimum are finally melting out) as the arctic finally gets rid of its remaining slush on the Pacific side, but I don't think there won't be "sustained century drops" for another week.

2018 will be low, but not lower than 2016 or 2012 by the end I think.

Of course we could get a GAC and that would really change the game. But under any other scenario, I don't think so.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2543 on: August 03, 2018, 12:52:44 PM »
Direct insolation has been lower in this years melt season due to high cloud cover. It may be that this clear spell makes things worse. We will see. The ice is very mobile in the pack. At the periphery it is constantly moving over anomalously warmer water. (edit: actually, just checked and SSTA is not so high now so...)

Todays ecmwf wam(wave) from Windy
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 01:03:52 PM by uniquorn »

bluesky

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2544 on: August 03, 2018, 02:08:34 PM »
Not sure where this question should be log on:
With 2007 weather conditions (bi bolar sea saw for a very long period, long period of transpolar drift and long period of High pressure with sun deeply melting the ice in June July and August…) plus a 2012 style GAC, how low the ice extent could go considering the current sea ice state (theoretical question of course with a low probability, but why not?). Maybe I should post it in the ice free thread...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2545 on: August 03, 2018, 02:19:37 PM »
Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!! 
Actually, counter intuitively, the greater probability is that it will continue to freeze after the CAB becomes "ice free" - less than 1 million KM2 of ice in winter.
And I am pretty sure, that the Hudson Bay as well as the North Pole will always* freeze in winter. On the North Pole you have 180 days of no sunlight, that will always be much below zero, no matter what. Average temperature in Winter is around -30°C at the North Pole and -20°C over most of Hudson Bay. So even if temperaturs would raise globally by 15°C, it would still be well below freezing in many areas there and therefore ice would form.

I agree.

Even after a summer BOE, ice will still form in the Arctic during the dark, polar winter for many decades. This cover of FYI will look and behave differently, likely thinner due to warmer winters, more mobile even in the dead of winter and more susceptible to melt the following melt season. This is no different than what we are observing in the peripheral seas in the basin. The Beaufort and Chukchi froze late and the resulting ice was far thinner and, as can be seen this year, will melt out despite conditions not conducive to melt.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2546 on: August 03, 2018, 02:24:12 PM »
Relatively cool July:

And a clear cooling trend over the past 8 years in all of the regions except the Atlantic where there is a warming trend.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2547 on: August 03, 2018, 02:28:47 PM »
Direct insolation has been lower in this years melt season due to high cloud cover. It may be that this clear spell makes things worse. We will see. The ice is very mobile in the pack. At the periphery it is constantly moving over anomalously warmer water. (edit: actually, just checked and SSTA is not so high now so...)

Todays ecmwf wam(wave) from Windy

The rapid melt out of large areas of thin ice on the Pacific side should cause a dramatic cooling of SST I would think. Could the open fetch allow surface winds to mix this fresh cold water with warmer water just beneath it?

Portions of the Chukchi are experiencing wave heights of 2 meters on that image. How high must the waves be to get significant mixing?
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 02:37:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2548 on: August 03, 2018, 04:08:44 PM »
I AGREE with the down trend of this graph and an eventual blue ocean but I think it hides the fact that the last remaining ice is at the center of the pack and thus, well away from land where heat builds the most and melts the ice the fastest, thus a 'slight tapering off' of the downward trend of the graph should be expected... Really just semantics at this point though as the extreme weather and jet stream disruption (not to mention warming of the ESAS) are already affecting us.  Shouldn't we be looking at the Hudson bay to go blue ocean year-long, long before the CAB does?!!  I agree the ice 'could go' any year now... a 1-in-6 chance per year depending on the weather seems just about right!?  Add the expected El Nino this winter and Next year I bet those odds are DOUBLED!!!  I have followed you guys almost hourly for two years now...!  I think we all are surprised to see the ice hanging on after 80-N temps kept so high in the fall of 2016 and so on with such drastic global ice measures!  I'm a published disaster planner... One thing I will guarantee you is that events down here due to rain bombs, extreme TEMPS and the disasters they brew will get SOO bad that even when the arctic boils with Everglades level heat,  other Hurricane Harvey-level disasters down here will be SOO BAD few will even notice!!!   

i share your views, looking at the chart one can perhaps already see a hint to a slow down in the trend while of course a slow down does not mean it wont reach the zero line relatively soon, just perhaps due to the location of the remaining ice the degradation will flatten a bit.

this only applies to the trend as such while every outlier or extreme melt year can bring us intermittently down to zero ( or the million for those who like arbitrary artificial criteria) ;)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2549 on: August 03, 2018, 07:20:49 PM »
Ooh la la @ NPAC