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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2600 on: August 05, 2018, 07:16:43 PM »
Maybe aerosols are slowing the icemelt anyone??

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/aug/03/pollution-is-slowing-the-melting-of-arctic-sea-ice-for-now

Aerosols are slowing all forms of cooling, else we would already be in, "Screw it. Give me a beer," territory. I.e., at or over 2C.

Seems to me we’re screwed when we those aerosols drop out when we try to “save” the climate...
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2601 on: August 05, 2018, 07:17:23 PM »
But that is for another thread.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2602 on: August 05, 2018, 08:37:25 PM »
Quote
so awesome. 2-3 more days of wind blowing the ice away from the coast
It looks like the lift-off north of Greenland will continue a few more days at least as a slowly drifing atmospheric pattern sets up, which will give rise to a consistent ice drift (towards the Bering Strait) unlike the chaotic winds back to June 1st and earlier.

To be clear, this is neither bottom nor top melt, just winds blowing the icepack off the coast, creating some open water and dispersed floes. It is a bit unusual to see this in the Lincoln Sea which is one of the last hold-outs of thick ice. August 5th is available at WorldView Aqua, putting it one day ahead of the algorithmic products.

Quote
Mercator is confusing without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection
Right, there are serious design errors at that site involving shifting color scales. Even if they are included, comparative graphics can still be misleading.

Actually there has been tremendous melt going on there.

The ice there from day 1-of this new pattern immediately went from dryish to bottom out albedo.

Because that area had some sun with huge WAA. Then days of fog under a very warm airmass.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2603 on: August 05, 2018, 08:41:45 PM »
You can see the surface changes here.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2604 on: August 05, 2018, 09:04:47 PM »
Update on Mercator 0m, 34m and 92m salinity, mar21-aug4. 5.5MB, every other day, click to run
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180321/20180804/2/2


Its a little confusing posting these side by side and without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection :)
Sorry about that. I was trying to keep the images small and the scales became unreadable.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2605 on: August 05, 2018, 11:21:19 PM »
It is getting close to that time to make me vote on the various polls about the minimum. So this amateur looks for clues that he might understand where he can.

Temperatures North of 80 from DMI. (1st image).
OK, only two days a tiny bit above average but nevertheless warmer than last year.

BUT GFS (2nd image). Suggests that North of 80 may stay above average for a few days more, and a lot elsewhere on the Atlantic side.

The GFS  5-day Temp anomaly and Average Temps images (2 & 3) suggest that for the next few days the story is all about warmth from the Atlantic and Central Siberia.

The last image (isn't it pretty) - 5 day average sea-level pressure. A lot of weather over the Canadian Archipelago ?

So perhaps some additional melt in the works?
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oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2606 on: August 05, 2018, 11:36:26 PM »
The thing is, except for the Laptev which is steadily losing ice area, the most vulnerable ice is in the ESS and Beaufort, while the heat is everywhere else. So potentially volume will drop while extent may not respond so sharply. It's gonna be an interesting race betwern current CAB thickness, the "heat wave", and the looming September refreeze. I assume we'll be saved by the bell again, though not for long.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2607 on: August 06, 2018, 12:25:47 AM »
The thing is, except for the Laptev which is steadily losing ice area, the most vulnerable ice is in the ESS and Beaufort, while the heat is everywhere else. So potentially volume will drop while extent may not respond so sharply. It's gonna be an interesting race betwern current CAB thickness, the "heat wave", and the looming September refreeze. I assume we'll be saved by the bell again, though not for long.

Losing CAB thickness is more of a problem for future years than losing extent at the edges? I don't know. Perhaps A-Team has thoughts on this.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2608 on: August 06, 2018, 12:29:28 AM »
I think that's right Oren, we'll be saved by the bell, but it's not just the warm air N of Greenland and the CAA that's worrisome. There's more warm salty Atlantic water spinning around the N coast of Greenland that's moving into the waters of the CAA. Brief events where the ice blows off N Greenland cause an increase in surface salinity. Longer events of clockwise winds may well up relatively warm salty water from the 300m Atlantic water layer along the continental shelf. This is serious stuff.

Many of the models we have seen over the years pile up ice along the N shore of Greenland and the CAA as a last resort as the Arctic heads towards blue water, but we are seeing right now the beginning of the collapse of that last resort. The remaining ice is thin and shattered north of Greenland and into the Lincoln sea. The shattered ice is floating in a matrix of open water.

Yes, I think we will be saved by the bell this year, but this year the Arctic has been losing battles on 2 fronts, the Atlantic and the Pacific. All the stormy, cloudy weather in June and July has not slowed the encroachment of warm salty waters from the Atlantic and the Pacific and the loss of fresh water and ice through the channels of the CAA.

sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2609 on: August 06, 2018, 02:02:52 AM »
What's up with the two hot spots by Svalbard? (Sea Surface Temperature)
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CameraMan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2610 on: August 06, 2018, 03:42:30 AM »
It's gonna be an interesting race betwern current CAB thickness, the "heat wave", and the looming September refreeze. I assume we'll be saved by the bell again, though not for long.

My thoughts as well.  Despite the differences from last year, both 2017 and 18 have brought us down to these levels without remarkable weather.   If that lasts a few more weeks, we'll end with unremarkable numbers, but with weak central ice and lots of (relatively) warm water.  In that state it's one GAC type event, strong El Nino, or a prolonged sunny heatwave to... yikes!

Darvince

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2611 on: August 06, 2018, 05:32:08 AM »
What's up with the two hot spots by Svalbard? (Sea Surface Temperature)
They are a persistent glitch on nullschool, an error in either their processing or in their source. I prefer this source for global SSTs:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif

It does have issues of its own, for example in April of 2016? it showed an area of 6C waters north of Greenland that were impossible.

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2612 on: August 06, 2018, 06:15:48 AM »
What's up with the two hot spots by Svalbard? (Sea Surface Temperature)
They are a persistent glitch on nullschool, an error in either their processing or in their source. I prefer this source for global SSTs:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif

It does have issues of its own, for example in April of 2016? it showed an area of 6C waters north of Greenland that were impossible.

I don't doubt that you are correct about nullschool, but the RV Polarstern reported some very high SSTs north of Svalbard a couple of weeks ago.  I am having trouble finding current data from their trip.  However, those SSTAs might actually be accurate based on their earlier reports, and the current weather patterns.

« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 06:28:41 AM by Rod »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2613 on: August 06, 2018, 07:43:27 AM »
The peak that is shown on nullschool is almost 19C, 18.8C. What did Polarstern find?

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2614 on: August 06, 2018, 07:55:28 AM »
The peak that is shown on nullschool is almost 19C, 18.8C. What did Polarstern find?

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK

I don't think they went near the hot spot though.

*My* understanding is, they are both persistent upwellings from the Norwegian current when it hits the shelves around Svalbard.

NOAA map:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2615 on: August 06, 2018, 09:01:53 AM »
August 1-5.

Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2616 on: August 06, 2018, 09:02:23 AM »
What's up with the two hot spots by Svalbard? (Sea Surface Temperature)
If you go on http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/ you see these two "hot spots". They are persistently present every day at least since July 2016 (the time I discovered Arctic Sea Ice graphs), even in winter. I think they are wrong and do not represent the real temperature. Someone should go there and do some SST measurements.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2617 on: August 06, 2018, 09:06:02 AM »
August 1-5.
Thanks for the update. Four things I want to comment:
1 The "Laptev bite" is increasing due to winds and currents
2 The "Atlantic front" is moving northward due to winds and currents
3 The gap N of Grønland is increasing (has already been discussed here)
4 I see no futher retreat in Beaufort and N Chukchi

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2618 on: August 06, 2018, 09:46:49 AM »
I don't think a Greenland roundtrip will be possible, but this should look even more remarkable two days from now (and this image is for the 5th, yesterday):
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2619 on: August 06, 2018, 09:47:35 AM »
What's up with the two hot spots by Svalbard? (Sea Surface Temperature)
They are a persistent glitch on nullschool, an error in either their processing or in their source. I prefer this source for global SSTs:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif

It does have issues of its own, for example in April of 2016? it showed an area of 6C waters north of Greenland that were impossible.

The NOAA OSPO product is sea surface height anomaly?  Is that a JASON-2 measurement?
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2620 on: August 06, 2018, 10:12:32 AM »
I don't think a Greenland roundtrip will be possible, but this should look even more remarkable two days from now (and this image is for the 5th, yesterday):

At least a ship could already circumnavigate Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland's northernmost tip.
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2621 on: August 06, 2018, 11:06:46 AM »
"Hot spots" both are the result of deep warm water being forced upwards the one to the south-west at the end of a long trough , the other at the end of the bear island trough, i have no opinion about how hot they are, but their actual temp. as published varies seasonally.
 
Looks to me that this season [and next] may be defined by how much fresh Beaufort water is lost through CAA/NWP

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2622 on: August 06, 2018, 11:31:24 AM »
Niall Dollard started a thread about these two 'hot spots' here (edit) https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg133898.html#msg133898
Nice photos johnm33:)

Quote
4 I see no futher retreat in Beaufort and N Chukchi
The whole pack looks like it is drifting towards Beaufort, Chukchi recently.

Today's ecmwf wam from windy.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 11:49:35 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2623 on: August 06, 2018, 01:08:25 PM »
Update on MClure Strait export, amsr2-uhh, jul17-aug5.    2.1MB click to run

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2624 on: August 06, 2018, 03:00:30 PM »
August 1-5.

A lot of compaction on the Atlantic side.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2625 on: August 06, 2018, 03:03:02 PM »
Update on MClure Strait export, amsr2-uhh, jul17-aug5.    2.1MB click to run

My guess is the NW passage will not be open this year.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2626 on: August 06, 2018, 03:04:28 PM »
Good to see the CAA Garlic Press working well on all that slush.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2627 on: August 06, 2018, 03:20:26 PM »
My guess is the NW passage will not be open this year.

Good to see the CAA Garlic Press working well on all that slush.

Trying to put these two quotes into context: Is there so much ice left in the NW passage BECAUSE of the garlic press?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2628 on: August 06, 2018, 04:42:33 PM »
My guess is the NW passage will not be open this year.

Good to see the CAA Garlic Press working well on all that slush.

Trying to put these two quotes into context: Is there so much ice left in the NW passage BECAUSE of the garlic press?

It's not clear to me that the garlic press is actually up and running. While the straits are breaking up and clearing out, I don't yet see evidence of ice in the CAB entering the straits. The straits near the CAB are still filled with fast ice.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2629 on: August 06, 2018, 04:57:26 PM »
Not the whole press, just the MClure strait recently, and it may or may not be CAB ice, but it is possibly some of the thickest. (Nares seems to be in reverse)

Piomas, jul31
Worldview, MClure strait, jul28-29

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2630 on: August 06, 2018, 06:32:01 PM »
Slater edges up again. 5.20 for Sept 25th. Its starting to look pretty hard to beat 5 for Sept extent by much. http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2631 on: August 06, 2018, 07:18:33 PM »
Slater edges up again. 5.20 for Sept 25th. Its starting to look pretty hard to beat 5 for Sept extent by much. http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

Regarding the ESS, Slater looks quite optimistic IMO.
As the observed line shows, we've been diving pretty much south already.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 07:23:50 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2632 on: August 06, 2018, 09:18:57 PM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2633 on: August 06, 2018, 09:33:36 PM »
Worldview, Laptev/ESS, brightness temperature band15, day, aug4-6
light blue ~-0.5C
yellow ~5C

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2634 on: August 06, 2018, 09:38:55 PM »
Worldview north of Greenland, July 31-Aug 6:
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sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2635 on: August 06, 2018, 09:39:15 PM »
Erm... is this the first time anyone has seen the ice pack detach from the north coast of Greenland and ice in the Fram headed north?

What is going on here?

(attachment deleted.  Neven beat me to it)
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2636 on: August 06, 2018, 09:41:56 PM »
We had a comparable lift-off of the ice end of Feb 2018, when it was much warmer than usual (the big spike in the DMI 80N temperature graph tells the story...)

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2637 on: August 06, 2018, 10:04:40 PM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

They won't collapse immediately, I think, but there should be enough time until the minimum for a lot of ice to melt. Here's the ECMWF forecast for the coming days, plenty of high pressure on the Siberian side (and I've added cute white arrows to show which way the wind will be blowing wrt the ice north of Greenland):
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2638 on: August 06, 2018, 10:11:40 PM »
This past freezing and melting season seems very unique. Despite the macro headline numbers being mundane by recent standards, I believe the true situation has deteriorated immensely.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific fronts have encroached on the arctic ice. Hundreds of kilometers of retreat have occurred, leaving warmer and saltier water. And in the last few weeks the area of historically thickest ice north of greenland has lifted off leaving open water, which will likely increase salinity in the region for the rapidly approaching freezing months. Thus, 3 of the most important regions for ice growth are anomalously warm and salty.  The freeze has a very uphill battle in front of it. I expect extreme temperature records in the arctic over the coming months.

An anthropomorphized anology would be a war between team white and team blue.  Team white didn't have too many casualties this battle, but the lines were broken through along the main front and the back door as well. The elite white soldiers suffered serious casualties for the first time, and team white appear poised for near defeat in the coming battles. The headline casualty number from this battle aren't noteworthy, but the tactical situation took a major turn.
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litesong

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2639 on: August 06, 2018, 10:25:43 PM »
The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018, which is what this thread is about.
The start of this thread, never contended the Arctic would be ice free in 2018.
He was simply trying to redirect discussion....
Redirecting discussion by misdirection is NOT valid.

sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2640 on: August 06, 2018, 10:34:08 PM »
The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018, which is what this thread is about.
The start of this thread, never contended the Arctic would be ice free in 2018.
He was simply trying to redirect discussion....
Redirecting discussion by misdirection is NOT valid.

my wording sucked, I meant let's talk about blue ocean stuff in another thread, *this* thread is meant for the melting season of 2018

The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018 -period-  that's a better wording.  then I should have said "This thread is about the melt season of 2018."  can you understand my mistake?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2641 on: August 06, 2018, 11:44:37 PM »
Erm... is this the first time anyone has seen the ice pack detach from the north coast of Greenland and ice in the Fram headed north?

What is going on here?

(attachment deleted.  Neven beat me to it)

I don't think the 1st time but the overall condition of the ice north of Greenland does not bode well.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2642 on: August 06, 2018, 11:52:55 PM »
The arctic is not going to be ice free in 2018 -period-  that's a better wording.  then I should have said "This thread is about the melt season of 2018."  can you understand my mistake?

i think you were very easy to understand, it's not uncommon to pretend a misunderstandings if the content is not welcome, don't worry. you said the right thing in comprehensive words from the beginning IMO, even i understood LOL
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2643 on: August 07, 2018, 12:11:44 AM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

They won't collapse immediately, I think, but there should be enough time until the minimum for a lot of ice to melt. Here's the ECMWF forecast for the coming days, plenty of high pressure on the Siberian side (and I've added cute white arrows to show which way the wind will be blowing wrt the ice north of Greenland):


I definitely should have said over the next month.

But the current set up is lethal in those regions.
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2644 on: August 07, 2018, 02:02:53 AM »
Here's my dumb (but verifiable) prediction for five weeks from now.  Assuming a lot of this late-season heat on the continents continues to work it's way north and a mostly sunny regime on the East Siberian side.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2645 on: August 07, 2018, 02:10:16 AM »
Here's my dumb (but verifiable) prediction for five weeks from now.  Assuming a lot of this late-season heat on the continents continues to work it's way north and a mostly sunny regime on the East Siberian side.

looks good to me LOL

see my post from earlier this year:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg161665.html#msg161665
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2646 on: August 07, 2018, 02:58:45 AM »
it's not uncommon to pretend a misunderstanding if the content is not welcome

???

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2647 on: August 07, 2018, 03:32:38 AM »
What I am interested in is whether the end of the melt season be later than normal.
Following up on a post in the data thread:
If the ice distribution at minimum is similar to the outline posted above, of a bunch of ice compacted around the center of the CAB and along the CAA, in the style of 2012, we may very well have a later end to the season. In contrast, 2016 had an early minimum on Sep 8th due to lots of low concentration ice deep inside the pack adjacent to the pole, which made it vulnerable to an early cold spell both due to the high latitude and the prevalence of cold fresh surface water. 2012 had a later minimum on Sep 16th

sark

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2648 on: August 07, 2018, 04:22:10 AM »
Here's my dumb (but verifiable) prediction for five weeks from now.  Assuming a lot of this late-season heat on the continents continues to work it's way north and a mostly sunny regime on the East Siberian side.

Did I measure this correctly?

I am not a scientist

AvantGuardian

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2649 on: August 07, 2018, 04:46:53 AM »
you may want to pay attention to the SSS.
Navy brat, student at Hawaiki state, majoring in oceanography, climate and parapsychology.