I think that's right Oren, we'll be saved by the bell, but it's not just the warm air N of Greenland and the CAA that's worrisome. There's more warm salty Atlantic water spinning around the N coast of Greenland that's moving into the waters of the CAA. Brief events where the ice blows off N Greenland cause an increase in surface salinity. Longer events of clockwise winds may well up relatively warm salty water from the 300m Atlantic water layer along the continental shelf. This is serious stuff.
Many of the models we have seen over the years pile up ice along the N shore of Greenland and the CAA as a last resort as the Arctic heads towards blue water, but we are seeing right now the beginning of the collapse of that last resort. The remaining ice is thin and shattered north of Greenland and into the Lincoln sea. The shattered ice is floating in a matrix of open water.
Yes, I think we will be saved by the bell this year, but this year the Arctic has been losing battles on 2 fronts, the Atlantic and the Pacific. All the stormy, cloudy weather in June and July has not slowed the encroachment of warm salty waters from the Atlantic and the Pacific and the loss of fresh water and ice through the channels of the CAA.
