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Paddy

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2700 on: August 09, 2018, 06:54:03 AM »
Surface Mass Balance

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2701 on: August 09, 2018, 07:16:15 AM »
"When the ice goes..... F***

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2702 on: August 09, 2018, 12:29:21 PM »
Today's ecmwf wam(waves) and temperature from windy.
It's looking quite stormy around the periphery next week.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2703 on: August 09, 2018, 05:09:58 PM »
In your lower image:

I note a high degree of old (and now re-frozen) leads appearing in the ice blocks. This is suggestive me of equally rough underneath contours with larger than usual surface contact area with water. As such these blocks of ice mop up heat easier from sea water than smooth ice. They are also more 'moored' into the sea currents than ice with a smooth bottom contour (possessing higher drag and being more tightly tied to movement of water to stir it). For the winter this means that more heat is captured by their rough contour, while the surface will tie drift snow better to form a thick snow cover.

I also wonder whether such highly variable ice thickness is correctly sensored by satellite probes due to variable ice thickness in each ice block and the various angles in their surface reflections. :o

I was curious if Lincoln Sea mélange looked different from Fram Strait mélange.  Sentinel-hub images using Atmospheric Correction and Gain (0.4) and Gamma (0.8) adjustments. There is a different brightness to the two images (time of day???), but that's the only significant difference I see.  I thought the Fram ice might be more rounded.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2704 on: August 09, 2018, 05:23:15 PM »
I also wonder whether such highly variable ice thickness is correctly sensored by satellite probes due to variable ice thickness in each ice block and the various angles in their surface reflections. :o

i suspect that this is exactly not the case, hence my suspicion that thickness data is not reflecting current conditions accurately.

some users interpret this suspicion as kind of disrespect towards those who maintain those data sets while in fact it is not, it self-evidently will take time to adopt all the rapid changes of sea-ice shapes, distribution, structures and it's higher mobility.

the only thing that i miss is that they admit the need for amendments to the current algorithms and that they're working on it which is probably the case but communication is often key and i would simply like to hear more on the matter.

your question contains one more possible angle of attack to improve data quality while there are others, like increased snow cover due to higher humidity and more leads and fractures that are one year ice or open at times and in their entirety certainly have their fair count, just to mention a few.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2705 on: August 09, 2018, 05:50:45 PM »
Just cross-posting some analysis of 2012-2018 end-of-season analysis that is getting lost over at the piomas forum, go there for extended commentary. The first animation compares Aug 8th to Aug 01-07; the second shows open water that appeared between Aug 5 and Sep 10 for these years; the third an overlay of 2007 minimum over current 2018; and the fourth ice movement for the first week of August.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg166373.html#msg166373
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg166454.html#msg166454








« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 06:03:09 PM by A-Team »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2706 on: August 09, 2018, 06:05:34 PM »
Made an animation of the opening up north of Greenland.
That is very imperssive!
Enlighten me! Has such a detachment of ice from N Greenland happened before?
Looking back through WorldView, it looks like it hasn't - not with that separation AND the Lincoln Sea in mush at the same time. Maybe 2008 September minimum looks a bit similar, but not really anything like it is right now.
Not sure how they did it, but WorldView goes back to 2000 now. Very cleaver stuff by NASA.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-08-08-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-572396.148937754,-1150851.9348643168,919571.851062246,-274307.93486431683
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 04:58:43 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2707 on: August 09, 2018, 10:58:12 PM »
Seems that the big high pressure dome over the Laptev side of the Arctic is now starting to wind down.  No sign of massive ice loss as predicted by some of the more exciteable posters in this thread.  Models seem to want to build a significant low so we'll see what the heat and stir method can achieve.  I do think the ice in that area is on the strong side of what can be expected in this age of ice everywhere weaker, and the results might be similar to the recent Beaufort plunge - moving up through the pack a bit, but by no means leaving it in the dust.  We are getting into the shoulder season with strong but definitely declining solar input so the slow down due to cloudiness won't be as significant as for low pressure systems earlier in this season.
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Espen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2708 on: August 09, 2018, 11:45:55 PM »
As my focus is not so much on the sea ice, I would like to comment one important thing, I have never seen in the time I have followed the arctic scene.
There is a record low amount of sea ice surrounding Greenland these days, a bit of yellow stuff at Lincoln Sea (Bremen) and some sea ice congestion at the Nares intersection, and the usual pack of sea ice of Jøkelbugt down to Shannon Island, we might even see a grand opening at Independence Fjord, that is not far away, if you ask me!
If you wanted to go around Greenland by sea, 2018 could be the year to do it!
Have a ice day!

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2709 on: August 09, 2018, 11:50:55 PM »
As the high pressure slides east along the Siberian coast, low pressure builds in, mostly following along the coast from the Atlantic side. That should bring lots of southerly winds, first in the Laptev area, eventually in the East Siberian sea. If we believe ECMWF, winds could be quite strong, pushing scattered ice mostly toward the central main pack I think. After a few days, the EC model deepens the low down below 980mb for a couple days, which could really stir things up. We'll see!


Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2710 on: August 09, 2018, 11:56:40 PM »
As the high pressure slides east along the Siberian coast, low pressure builds in, mostly following along the coast from the Atlantic side. That should bring lots of southerly winds, first in the Laptev area, eventually in the East Siberian sea. If we believe ECMWF, winds could be quite strong, pushing scattered ice mostly toward the central main pack I think. After a few days, the EC model deepens the low down below 980mb for a couple days, which could really stir things up. We'll see!

Indeed, after more than a week of late sunshine, we now get compacting winds in the ESS area where the most money can be made at this time of year. I expect losses to pick up some more, maybe a few century breaks for JAXA SIE.

Here's the 6-day ECMWF forecast, and I've added some arrows again to show how the winds will be blowing (and below that current sea ice extent levels in the East Siberian Sea):
Compare, compare, compare

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2711 on: August 10, 2018, 12:59:48 AM »
As the high pressure slides east along the Siberian coast, low pressure builds in, mostly following along the coast from the Atlantic side. That should bring lots of southerly winds, first in the Laptev area, eventually in the East Siberian sea. If we believe ECMWF, winds could be quite strong, pushing scattered ice mostly toward the central main pack I think. After a few days, the EC model deepens the low down below 980mb for a couple days, which could really stir things up. We'll see!

i made the same observation earlier today and share your idea that this could have a significant effect for the final outcome of this melting season, provided the conditions become true ;)
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2712 on: August 10, 2018, 04:46:28 AM »
Seems that the big high pressure dome over the Laptev side of the Arctic is now starting to wind down.  No sign of massive ice loss as predicted by some of the more exciteable posters in this thread.  Models seem to want to build a significant low so we'll see what the heat and stir method can achieve.  I do think the ice in that area is on the strong side of what can be expected in this age of ice everywhere weaker, and the results might be similar to the recent Beaufort plunge - moving up through the pack a bit, but by no means leaving it in the dust.  We are getting into the shoulder season with strong but definitely declining solar input so the slow down due to cloudiness won't be as significant as for low pressure systems earlier in this season.

The ice has seen melt all over.

Just because extent hasn't plumetted doesn't matter yet.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2713 on: August 10, 2018, 06:58:17 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-08-09...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2714 on: August 10, 2018, 07:02:55 AM »
Smoke bomb making beeline for High Arctic / Laptev as models converge on a LP event beginning ~D3. Whether it gets down to the high 970s or lower remains to be seen (as we approach events this year I have noticed pressures tend to lower on models once lows are "locked in").

The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm. I expect sustained century losses for the foreseeable future through D10. This will be the time that 2018 puts distance between itself and all other years except 2012.
 

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2715 on: August 10, 2018, 08:07:09 AM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2716 on: August 10, 2018, 08:32:37 AM »
August 5-9.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2717 on: August 10, 2018, 10:53:17 AM »
Herewith (1st image) DMI North of 80 temps graph - for several days temp above average  - a little bit. But to be 3+ degrees celsius above the freezing point of seawater as opposed to about 2 degrees must mean something. It also looks like the longest period this has happened during the brief summer period when temperatures exceed zero degrees for many years.

The GFs average temp for the next 5 days suggests that this anomaly may persist.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2718 on: August 10, 2018, 11:46:24 AM »
Today's ecmwf wam(waves) and temperature from windy.
Worldview, ESS/Laptev, aug3-10, lower image with higher contrast to highlight thicker ice.(3.2MB)

Under calm, cloudy, possibly cooler conditions, based on Chukchi and Kara, maybe 15-20days for much of it to melt out?
Probably not going to be calm or cool though.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2719 on: August 10, 2018, 01:53:41 PM »
Herewith (1st image) DMI North of 80 temps graph - for several days temp above average  - a little bit. But to be 3+ degrees celsius above the freezing point of seawater as opposed to about 2 degrees must mean something. It also looks like the longest period this has happened during the brief summer period when temperatures exceed zero degrees for many years.

The GFs average temp for the next 5 days suggests that this anomaly may persist.

I was noticing that but wasn't ready to comment on it yet.  If it keeps up a few more days I think it will be big news.

deconstruct

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2720 on: August 10, 2018, 02:04:33 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
I have no evidence that this means "very warm", but as smoke should usually only come from areas where something can burn, the airmasses should be typically be from regions as south as that there can be trees growing and where it was warm (because forest fires usually go with high temperatues). So when smoke is being brought northwards to the Arctic Ocean I would find it plausibel, that the airmasses will bring above-average temperatures with them.

But I am very skeptical to his actual point, that this means that there will be "sustained century losses for the foreseeable future through D10" and that this "will be the time that 2018 puts distance between itself and all other years except 2012".

Because I see no evidence for that from smoke in the air. Smoke is being delivered to the AO in nearly every year. And obviously not every year sees such an ice reduction when that happens. My guess is, that this year will not be able to put noticeable distance between itself and low years like 2007 or 2016.



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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2721 on: August 10, 2018, 03:01:58 PM »
An update on the 2015 vs 2018 comparison.  As noted earlier, 2015 has generally been the closest match for 2018, extent-wise.  Here's the RMS error for each year vs 2018, from 1 June:



And here's the time evolution of each year's anomaly (extent on day X minus the average extent on day X):



After this point, 2015 stayed at slightly positive extent anomalies for the next ten days, then fell off a bit of a minor cliff during the last week of August.

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2722 on: August 10, 2018, 03:39:43 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
I have no evidence that this means "very warm", but as smoke should usually only come from areas where something can burn, the airmasses should be typically be from regions as south as that there can be trees growing and where it was warm (because forest fires usually go with high temperatues). So when smoke is being brought northwards to the Arctic Ocean I would find it plausibel, that the airmasses will bring above-average temperatures with them.

Fair point, although tundras will burn also. Siberia is vast and fires can burn anywhere, and most of Siberia is quite warm in the summer months. But perhaps we shouldn't be trying to read smoke signals like American Indians in 19th century school-boy literature, and simply check on one of the many resources available that give temperature in degrees centigrade.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2723 on: August 10, 2018, 03:42:09 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
I have no evidence that this means "very warm", but as smoke should usually only come from areas where something can burn, the airmasses should be typically be from regions as south as that there can be trees growing and where it was warm (because forest fires usually go with high temperatues). So when smoke is being brought northwards to the Arctic Ocean I would find it plausibel, that the airmasses will bring above-average temperatures with them.

 the airmasses should be typically be from regions as south as that there can be trees growing and where it was warm (because forest fires usually go with high temperatues).

Could be from the tundra farther north- dried out grassland and brush (high temps and little rain?)

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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2724 on: August 10, 2018, 04:09:32 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
I have no evidence that this means "very warm", but as smoke should usually only come from areas where something can burn, the airmasses should be typically be from regions as south as that there can be trees growing and where it was warm (because forest fires usually go with high temperatues). So when smoke is being brought northwards to the Arctic Ocean I would find it plausibel, that the airmasses will bring above-average temperatures with them.

Fair point, although tundras will burn also. Siberia is vast and fires can burn anywhere, and most of Siberia is quite warm in the summer months. But perhaps we shouldn't be trying to read smoke signals like American Indians in 19th century school-boy literature, and simply check on one of the many resources available that give temperature in degrees centigrade.
Your comment is patronizing and rude. A) it is demeaning to American Indians, B) I am not doing what they did re: smoke signals. Fires create heat and thrive in environments that are "hot", and they do not form in vacuums. Siberia has seen its warmest summer on record in many portions. You can check satellites for heat signatures but they would correspond perfectly with where smoke is lofting into the atmosphere precisely because fires thrive under HEAT and massive smoke plumes don't form in cold / wet airmasses.

The fact that I have to debate whether vast plumes of burning carbon contain heat is proof this planet is royally screwed, especially on a sea ice forum where you would think all members possess some modicum of common sense. If a plume of fire and smoke does not contain heat, what does it contain? Flying spaghetti monsters? Seriously a ridiculous debate.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2725 on: August 10, 2018, 04:27:05 PM »
What I find most interesting about 2018 is that Atlantification is "hitting new highs" - so to speak. Never at this time of the year has the ocean pushed so far on the Atlantic front as can be seen on the attached graphs. 2013 is the closest but 2007,12,16 are not even close. It seems to me that Atlantification is an ongoing and seemingly unstoppable process and this will have consequences for the next winter and summer seasons...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2726 on: August 10, 2018, 04:44:35 PM »
What I find most interesting about 2018 is that Atlantification is "hitting new highs" - so to speak. Never at this time of the year has the ocean pushed so far on the Atlantic front as can be seen on the attached graphs. 2013 is the closest but 2007,12,16 are not even close. It seems to me that Atlantification is an ongoing and seemingly unstoppable process and this will have consequences for the next winter and summer seasons...

I posted this about 2 weeks ago.

Quote
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2352 on: July 26, 2018, 11:11:46 PM »
QuoteModifyRemove
A lot of comment about how this year the Arctic weather is so much like last year - cool and cloudy.

BUT - For the last 2 (2 1/2?) months there has been a big fat high over Western Europe and the Eastern Atlantic. (This did not happen in 2017). As a result for 2+ months warmish wettish air and presumably surface ocean water from the Atlantic lows have been sent up the Norwegian and Barents seas into the Arctic. As far as the UK is concerned, I think you have to go back to 1976 for such a long period of domination by a blocking high.

Surely that must have some effect? Atlantification ? the Kara cliff and Laptev persistent area loss?

That blocking high is declining in NW Europe but still entrenched over the Atlantic.
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AvantGuardian

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2727 on: August 10, 2018, 05:19:22 PM »
I've been looking at that area off Siberia that some guys are saying might survive. Is that dirty yellow green look the fires? My Prof sez it's probably just algae.
It sure looks a lot bluer in the bottom one. Which is north of Nares.

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=74.89179996842871&lng=160.19989013671875&zoom=12&preset=8_BATHYMETRIC&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=20&gain=0.9&gamma=1.2&time=2015-01-01%7C2018-08-07&atmFilter=ATMCOR&showDates=false
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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2728 on: August 10, 2018, 06:03:33 PM »
Your comment is patronizing and rude. A) it is demeaning to American Indians,

I was only trying to make a little joke. School-boy literature from the 19th (and well into the 20th) century had fantastical Indians making smoke signals all the time. Nothing to do with actual Indians, I don't really know if they ever used smoke signals (and if they did, I'm sure others did as well).

B) I am not doing what they did re: smoke signals. Fires create heat and thrive in environments that are "hot", and they do not form in vacuums.

Not that it really matters, but do you think that if there is smoke then the air is warm because the fire that created the smoke warmed up the air? Other than that, I think that smoke is a very poor indicator of air temperature.

But to avoid going off-topic, if you want we can discuss this further in this forum.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2729 on: August 10, 2018, 06:31:20 PM »
The smoke arguments are pointless because we know from satellite and surface measurements that exceptionally warm air has been blowing from Siberia over the Laptev and east Siberian Seas. The DMI 80N to pole temps are at the summer's high when they would normally be dropping. The amount of heat moved polewards in the north Atlantic this spring and summer has been astounding and it is melting the ice from below.

All 3 climate models predict a weak to moderate El Niño this winter into spring with a strong transfer of Pacific heat into the north Atlantic via an atmospheric teleconnection.

So the big news this summer is the unprecedented Atlantification of the Arctic and climate models are forecasting it to continue strongly into next summer. Atlantic water is surging, as we speak, into the ice free region north of Greenland at 300m and that water will eventually flow into the channels of the CAA. It's not just the ice on the European side of the Arctic basin that is under assault by warm Atlantic water.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2730 on: August 10, 2018, 06:32:30 PM »
What I find most interesting about 2018 is that Atlantification is "hitting new highs" - so to speak

I posted this about 2 weeks ago.

Quote
Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2352 on: July 26, 2018, 11:11:46 PM »
QuoteModifyRemove
A lot of comment about how this year the Arctic weather is so much like last year - cool and cloudy.

BUT - For the last 2 (2 1/2?) months there has been a big fat high over Western Europe and the Eastern Atlantic. (This did not happen in 2017). As a result for 2+ months warmish wettish air and presumably surface ocean water from the Atlantic lows have been sent up the Norwegian and Barents seas into the Arctic. As far as the UK is concerned, I think you have to go back to 1976 for such a long period of domination by a blocking high.

Surely that must have some effect? Atlantification ? the Kara cliff and Laptev persistent area loss?

That blocking high is declining in NW Europe but still entrenched over the Atlantic.

The big question is: is the current "atlantification" N of Svalbard simply weather related or will it be a permanent feature from now on? I do not know the answer...

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2731 on: August 10, 2018, 06:40:03 PM »
The big question is: is the current "atlantification" N of Svalbard simply weather related or will it be a permanent feature from now on? I do not know the answer...

Isn't this and related questions why we are here every day?

I think it's going to be a permanent feature.  Now I have to wait and see.

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2732 on: August 10, 2018, 07:22:49 PM »
Hey Fish, help me out here - from what I recall comparing previous years SSTs around the pack it seems that our current year is only moderately warm. Clearly the ice has retreated which may be due to warmer waters interacting with the ice and what we are seeing with the ssts is the resultant cooling from melt? Also are the waters warmer comparatively below the surface?

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2733 on: August 10, 2018, 07:26:50 PM »
The big question is: is the current "atlantification" N of Svalbard simply weather related or will it be a permanent feature from now on? I do not know the answer...

Isn't this and related questions why we are here every day?

I think it's going to be a permanent feature.  Now I have to wait and see.

I've been droning on and off about the blocking high from Western Europe to the SW North Atlantic, that has been shovelling warmish wettish air up the Greenland and Norwegian seas into the high Arctic at least since the beginning of June (and giving NW Europe a helluva heatwave).

Surely this year's Atlantification must be at least partly due to this.

That high is now receding from NW Europe so presumably the Atlantic lows are going to hit NW Europe now instead of heading North.

So the question in my mind is - is this summer just a one-off event or is it the shape of things to come, and will that high return this Autumn and Winter to give us in NW Europe bbr's big freeze and a very late and very low Arctic sea ice freezing season ?

Now I also have to wait and see.
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Attached is the GFS pressure map for early July.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2734 on: August 10, 2018, 08:05:17 PM »
<snip, you could've all left it at that and there'd be no problem, a common spat; N.>
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 12:27:03 AM by Neven »
big time oops

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2735 on: August 10, 2018, 08:47:28 PM »

Your comment is patronizing and rude. A) it is demeaning to American Indians, B) I am not doing what they did re: smoke signals. Fires create heat and thrive in environments that are "hot", and they do not form in vacuums. Siberia has seen its warmest summer on record in many portions. You can check satellites for heat signatures but they would correspond perfectly with where smoke is lofting into the atmosphere precisely because fires thrive under HEAT and massive smoke plumes don't form in cold / wet airmasses.

The fact that I have to debate whether vast plumes of burning carbon contain heat is proof this planet is royally screwed, especially on a sea ice forum where you would think all members possess some modicum of common sense. If a plume of fire and smoke does not contain heat, what does it contain? Flying spaghetti monsters? Seriously a ridiculous debate.

Get a life. Take you're melodrama somewhere else. At the very least to a different thread.
Your*

Smoke and heat are relevant to melting, btw. In case you did not know, ice melts due to heat when temps rise above 30-32F depending on salinity.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 08:54:39 PM by bbr2314 »

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2736 on: August 10, 2018, 09:21:31 PM »
Herewith (1st image) DMI North of 80 temps graph - for several days temp above average  - a little bit. But to be 3+ degrees celsius above the freezing point of seawater as opposed to about 2 degrees must mean something. It also looks like the longest period this has happened during the brief summer period when temperatures exceed zero degrees for many years.

The GFs average temp for the next 5 days suggests that this anomaly may persist.

Hypothesis... The warm temps down here of late should create a stronger temperature difference with the arctic and serve to strengthen the Jet in the summer... as it cools down into Fall the jet will weaken and allow more warm air north to form arctic cyclones because the temp difference between the two places is less? It's always worse up there in the winter/fall months and even below average in summer so it paints the same picture on both ends of what is happening... Extreme warmth in lower latitudes strengthens the jet lowering heat transfer in the summer... Once the ice is gone someday soon, THEN we'll see the 20-C above normal temps in the high arctic in the summer like we do in the winter months!

Tetra

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2737 on: August 10, 2018, 10:10:06 PM »
Smoke bomb making beeline for High Arctic / Laptev as models converge on a LP event beginning ~D3. Whether it gets down to the high 970s or lower remains to be seen (as we approach events this year I have noticed pressures tend to lower on models once lows are "locked in").

The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm. I expect sustained century losses for the foreseeable future through D10. This will be the time that 2018 puts distance between itself and all other years except 2012.

Didn’t you say a week ago we were meant to see “sustained century drops for ten days” and that we were meant to catch up to 2012 already?  Only for that not to happen? Instead we got one century break, and the rest of it was dead on average for this year.

Just to add: I agree with you this time only because Neven does.

It seems the heat is on.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 10:32:37 PM by Tetra »

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2738 on: August 10, 2018, 10:23:18 PM »
Guys, PLEASE keep this forum uncluttered by crap, and focus on the current melt season. This isn't the place for petty squabbles, ad hominems, personality conflicts, sniping, backbiting, and all that.

Ice.

Melting.

Period.

Also:

1) Feel free to make WAGs about what you think may happen. But if and when those WAGs fail to materialize, don't be thin-skinned when others remind you of your error.

1a) By the same token, when someone makes a WAG, keep in mind that how you treat them may be how you're treated the next time you make a statement that ends up wrong. You know, the Golden Rule and all that.

2) To keep the pages free and flowing, we ask again that when replying to previous posts, you only include the immediately preceding post, as nests of a half-dozen or more earlier comments can be very difficult to read.

Be valuable. Be nice. Thanks.

Tetra

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2739 on: August 10, 2018, 10:35:26 PM »
I apologise profusely. I’ve edited my post and “trimmed the fat” so to speak.

To be more on topic, Is there a possibility for an arctic cyclone or a distant GAC given all the stored heat? And how adversely could that affect the ice? I’m still a lurking learner here, learnings about how the ice works.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2740 on: August 11, 2018, 12:16:43 AM »
I apologise profusely. I’ve edited my post and “trimmed the fat” so to speak.

To be more on topic, Is there a possibility for an arctic cyclone or a distant GAC given all the stored heat? And how adversely could that affect the ice? I’m still a lurking learner here, learnings about how the ice works.

looking at the attached image of which you find the original here:

https://www.windy.com/globe?gust,2018-08-14-21,36.720,-4.420,5

there is a cyclonic system building up that will travel via CAB/laptev to the ESS if it comes true.

wind speeds predicted will be up to 70km/h which i don't know whether the impact on ice will be big enough but apparently the one in the in the upper right quadrant, i think over CAB/Laptev at the moment the image is taken, will have some stamina and last a few days from some time before until some time after the day the screenshot was taken for tuesday 14th of august.

you can see this animated in windy.com
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 02:37:01 AM by magnamentis »
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2741 on: August 11, 2018, 12:21:15 AM »

Surely this year's Atlantification must be at least partly due to this.


Yes.

I am Buddhist.  I do not believe in the Aristotelian notion of exactly one cause leading to exactly one effect.  Instead, I believe there are many causes leading to many effects which are then themselves causes.  The cycles of existence.

We can talk about proximate (immediate) causes, but any talk of ultimate causes is as far as I am concerned purely a belief in god(s) -- and demonstrably false.

But in any event, the melting is interesting this year, and I think tends to support my viewpoint.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2742 on: August 11, 2018, 12:29:22 AM »
Is it Atlantification, or is it simply that there has been close to zero Fram Strait transport (for whatever reason)? I'm quite sure that if the winds had blow south, the edge of the ice pack would've been further south as well.

PS I said a couple of century breaks, in a couple of days, not every day until D10.
Compare, compare, compare

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2743 on: August 11, 2018, 12:32:57 AM »
Is it Atlantification, or is it simply that there has been close to zero Fram Strait transport (for whatever reason)? I'm quite sure that if the winds had blow south, the edge of the ice pack would've been further south as well.

PS I said a couple of century breaks, in a couple of days, not every day until D10.

I have been looking for something to export all Summer.  Have you found anything?

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2744 on: August 11, 2018, 02:43:16 AM »
Is it Atlantification, or is it simply that there has been close to zero Fram Strait transport (for whatever reason)? I'm quite sure that if the winds had blow south, the edge of the ice pack would've been further south as well.

This, in my opinion, is one of the most important questions this melting season.  Uniquorn posted a very helpful animation on July 30 (post #2443) that seems to show that the ice has been trying to move south, both through the Fram and further east along the Atlantic front, but it is not making it.

I tend to agree with binntho (post #2442) and oren (post #2445), that what we have seen is that the ice is melting before it ever gets to the Fram export "line."   

Is this evidence of Atlantification?  I don't know, but uniquorn's animation is what I would expect Atlantification of that particular area to look like.


Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2745 on: August 11, 2018, 03:04:43 AM »
Is it Atlantification, or is it simply that there has been close to zero Fram Strait transport (for whatever reason)? I'm quite sure that if the winds had blow south, the edge of the ice pack would've been further south as well.

This, in my opinion, is one of the most important questions this melting season.  Uniquorn posted a very helpful animation on July 30 (post #2443) that seems to show that the ice has been trying to move south, both through the Fram and further east along the Atlantic front, but it is not making it.

I tend to agree with binntho (post #2442) and oren (post #2445), that what we have seen is that the ice is melting before it ever gets to the Fram export "line."   

Is this evidence of Atlantification?  I don't know, but uniquorn's animation is what I would expect Atlantification of that particular area to look like.

I'm kind of thinking of "Atlantification" as code for "the old order has broken down."

I don't know how long it will take for a new order to establish itself, but I'm pretty sure it will not look like the old order.

I also don't really know what that order will look like, but my guess is that the Polar Atmospheric cell will be gone and the Central Arctic Basin will be ice free (not near the continents).  I don't actually know when it will happen, but I don't see any reason it won't be this fall.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2746 on: August 11, 2018, 05:39:23 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-08-10...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2747 on: August 11, 2018, 08:06:40 AM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Of course not and smoke in the air from fires has no bearing on the warmth of the air.

Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2748 on: August 11, 2018, 09:20:42 AM »
Impressive, how N Laptev is melting. I wonder whether open seas will make it north of 80N in the next days. This would then affect the CAB ice area / extent numbers.
Thanks for the animation, slow wing!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2749 on: August 11, 2018, 09:38:34 AM »
<snip, this is getting tiresome; N.>
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 10:42:00 AM by Neven »