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binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2750 on: August 11, 2018, 10:09:47 AM »
I would ignore you but you are now spreading lies. This is a serious falsehood. ... you are spreading ignorance knowingly (or not, which would be even worse).
?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2751 on: August 11, 2018, 10:22:34 AM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Of course not and smoke in the air from fires has no bearing on the warmth of the air.
I would ignore you but you are now spreading lies. This is a serious falsehood. Siberia has been scorching. The pathway to the Arctic resolves continental heat. The fires now sending plumes of carbon into the atmosphere across Siberia and other landmasses are indicators of warm airmasses and when their smoke is lifted north, you can see the movement of the airmasses. This is basic common sense and you are spreading ignorance knowingly (or not, which would be even worse).

Quote
you are now spreading lies. This is a serious falsehood

It just won't do.

Part of Siberia have been at well above average temperatures. Part of Siberia have been at well below average temperatures. You provide no evidence, merely assertions, on the smoke thing and then accuse those who disagree with that assertion of lying and serious falsehoods.

It just won't do. It has to stop.
_______________________________________________________
ps: Evidence re Siberian temperature anomaly attached.

pps: On November 5th in England there are vast numbers of bonfires and fireworks as we celebrate the foiling of the Gunpowder Plot in 1605. If there is a high over England at the time, the air is still and cold and the smoke does not disperse, which in those circumstances is an indicator of below average temperatures.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2752 on: August 11, 2018, 11:24:56 AM »
Solar eclipse. 8) Today, the Arctic receives less heat from the Sun than usual.

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2753 on: August 11, 2018, 12:59:05 PM »
Looking at windy.com and nullschool it seems that, starting Monday/Tuesday, warm air and strong winds will be moving from the south in over the resilient ice in the ESS. I can't tell whether the main movement will be towards the CAB or the Chukchi sea, but we should expect some compaction and possibly some serious melt in this area.

Today's false color from Uni Bremen, and nullschool for Tuesday 09:00 UTC.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2754 on: August 11, 2018, 02:17:53 PM »
Today's ecmwf waves, temperature and wind from windy.
Strong cyclone in the Bering sea forecast for tomorrow.
Impressive, how N Laptev is melting. I wonder whether open seas will make it north of 80N in the next days. This would then affect the CAB ice area / extent numbers.
Thanks for the animation, slow wing!
Open water north of Severnaya Zemlya would make a very long 'atlantic front' stretching into the Laptev, possibly for the next few weeks. Stronger easterly winds may close the gap to SZ. Either way, it looks like it's going to be quite choppy there for a few days

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2755 on: August 11, 2018, 02:49:31 PM »
Laptev is already well above average... getting tons of sun... about to get even more heat 55F sustained... and in an area that often sees brief periods of open water during winter as it is... Ad in El Nino this winter and we maybe witnessing the start of something more serious.

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2756 on: August 11, 2018, 02:51:29 PM »
Quote
would make a very long 'atlantic front' stretching
Yes, the open water/ice boundary been way north of continental shelf bathymetry for quite a while, almost clearing the entire Yarmak Plateau on 10 Aug 18 (gold line and darkened depths, 2nd image). Incoming warm Atlantic Waters are centered around 300m so somewhat inside the 500m depth contour shown.

The unprecedented ice weakness north of Greenland continues to extend westward. The animation shows sea ice concentration over ice motion from July 1st on, which shows the unusual opening of the Lincoln Sea cannot be attributed to wind lift-off.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 04:02:09 PM by A-Team »

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2757 on: August 11, 2018, 02:57:30 PM »
The ice weakness north of Greenland continues to extend westward. The animation shows sea ice concentration over ice motion from July 1st on, which shows the unusual opening of the Lincoln Sea cannot be attributed to wind lift-off.

I was wondering the same thing this morning - is it just the wind, or is there a warm current sneaking it's way along the coast? But I've also noted that there is a lot of adiabatic warming happening just off the coast of North Greenland, where the air streams down from the central glacier. Similar Foehn winds have been known to cause rapid, localized, melt in Antarctica if I remember correctly, perhaps something similar is going on here?

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2758 on: August 11, 2018, 03:17:04 PM »
There are weather stations at Morris Jesup, Alert, Nord and Svalbard that report online. Forums here don't follow them very closely, preferring computer theories. These would be 2m temperatures at MJ; it reports hourly to DMI. The station is located on the coastal plain a few hundred meters from the ocean at 83°37′59″N, 32°31′00″W.

Temperatures have been unremarkable though above freezing with a fair amount of insolation. Upward and downward short and long wave radiative fluxes could be quantitated but I don't believe they are at this station. It could have been located on fixed ice say off Kaffeklubben but isn't because of servicing issues.

Svalbard has daily soundings, a much longer historical record and more advanced statistical offerings. These too are not often consulted on the forums but more likely to be baked into planetary-scale weather presentations. The DMI 80ºN would include MJ and station data on FJL and SZ islands. There is currently no instrumentation reporting from the Arctic Ocean itself.

The Polarstern has been down in the Fram recording weather and water properties. "On July 28, the research icebreaker Polarstern arrived in the Northeast Water Polynya, an area of open water on the northeast Greenland shelf. A large part of the landfast sea ice south of Polarstern's current position at 80°N just  broke off." See https://twitter.com/seaice_de?lang=en
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 05:27:58 PM by A-Team »

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2759 on: August 11, 2018, 04:29:28 PM »
Quote
is there a warm current sneaking it's way along the coast?
FishOwater has been on a roll lately with some great posts, calling our attention to the SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event of 12 Feb 18 aka day 43 and its consequences for subsequent weather patterns. I looked to see whether that date showed up as a breakpoint on Ascat sea ice motion, UH AMSR2 sea ice concentration, GFS winds, or OSI-SAF sea ice motion.

Sure enough, day 43 was the start of the remarkable North Greenland retro-event that backed already exported Fram ice up across the flux gate, along with creating a major lift-off and associated open water.

Ice export eventually returned to its previous pattern until early June when the semi circumpolar drift weather pattern drifted into the indeterminacy that continues until today. Note no transpolar drift has occurred in recent years, ie don't trust old textbooks, look at actual ice motion, read current journals:

Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?
March 2018 Geophysical Research Letters 45(6)
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076446

Now this was one of these low pressure systems that not infrequently barrel up into the Arctic Ocean between Svalbard and Greenland. So in terms of SSW, was this coincidental, correlated, or causal?

Oceanographic work by A Muenchow and others has indicated a returning path for Atlantic Waters along the Lomonosov Ridge and out the Nares year-round at depth. This route takes several years to complete so even if somehow now affecting north Greenland surface waters, it wouldn't be tied to the current intrusion.

Thus FishOwater's proposal for unprecedented Atlantic Water upwelling and westward dispersal to this region, despite its dire implications for the future of the CAB, is more attractive, though it remains to be seen how it will play out over coming weeks.

Some forums are still claiming that the SV-FJL-SZ retreat is eating into MYI CAB ice. Wrong. I've explained 40-50 times this year that this is not the case. Even now, retreat is only processing the long tongue of FYI that was extruded from the Kara (and Laptev), see the Ascat mp4 below.

It is more accurate to say, as Rox and others do up-forum, the melt season mostly just undoes freeze season, with both operate primarily on ice peripheral to the core CAB. The CAB surely undergoes thickening and thinning over the year but mostly we cannot observe it. Hence the immense interest in the still-unfolding west Lincoln Sea event.

Note too not one snowflake from the Arctic basin has exited via the CAA garlic press this season. The aforementioned summer weather is not up to the job.

As shown earlier, a huge thick floe of MYI pushed down one of the minor channels last summer completely blocked the NW Passage above the Lougheed Island pinch-point.The Northwest Passages are mostly melting in situ, with more southerly ice breaking off and being brought by currents into Baffin Bay as in past years. The M'Clure Strait cork has quieted down and been replaced by lift-off (tracked in recent uniquorm posts).

Quote
We have had an atmospheric circulation vortex around Greenland for over 3 months that was brought on by the major stratospheric warming in February. That stratospheric warming was caused by the strongest wave driving event, which drove energy upwards from the troposphere to the top of the stratosphere, on record.

There's more warm salty Atlantic water spinning around the N coast of Greenland that's moving into the waters of the CAA. Brief events where the ice blows off N Greenland cause an increase in surface salinity. Longer events of clockwise winds may well up relatively warm salty water from the 300m Atlantic water layer along the continental shelf. This is serious stuff.

Many of the models we have seen over the years pile up ice along the N shore of Greenland and the CAA as a last resort as the Arctic heads towards blue water, but we are seeing right now the beginning of the collapse of that last resort. The remaining ice is thin and shattered north of Greenland and into the Lincoln sea. The shattered ice is floating in a matrix of open water.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 05:25:58 PM by A-Team »

Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2760 on: August 11, 2018, 09:05:47 PM »
The last second has it! How uniformly the ice pack moves northward. Impressive & thanks for sharing.

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2761 on: August 11, 2018, 10:42:46 PM »
There were persistent winds along that front from the second which is exactly when the ice begins to head north.
The [final] animation changes quite radically around 150 [19sec ish] is that an artifact of the gif or the quality of the images changing?

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2762 on: August 11, 2018, 11:32:00 PM »
Quote
Espen: record low sea ice surrounding Greenland ... If you wanted to go around Greenland by sea, 2018 could be the year to do it!
I located an atlas of obscure undersea feature north of Greenland -- even the mighty Espen may not have not heard of all these names!

The continental shelf boundary and features like the Klenova Valley [Araf'yev Seamount] could play a role in guiding [blocking] the Atlantic Water re-distribution from its usual route around and to the east of Svalbard during this rather baffling event.

The imagery below looks at the latest sea floor topography map relative to a Aug 10 AMSR2 overlay of sub-80% concentration sea ice north of Greenland and along the Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor. It does not appear that the anomaly's extent is all that tied to bottom features in the sense of a classical western boundary current following a continental shelf.

https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/printable_maps/ibcao_map/
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/gazetteer/
https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/printable_maps/ibcao_map/documents/ibcao_v3.pdf



magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2763 on: August 11, 2018, 11:42:36 PM »
Impressive, how N Laptev is melting. I wonder whether open seas will make it north of 80N in the next days. This would then affect the CAB ice area / extent numbers.
Thanks for the animation, slow wing!

yep, and now that cyclonic system moving from laptev towards ESS, stirring it up over the coming few days could bring some of us a big surprise, this year it only takes 2-3 medium tempestas over the ESS and there we go straight towards very low territory while i intentionally avoid the term i have in mind to not start a pro and contra discussion on the matter but it still can happen LOL
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2764 on: August 12, 2018, 12:35:32 AM »
Looking at that animation with the bathymetry, the condition of the Lincoln Sea is even scarier.

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2765 on: August 12, 2018, 12:43:21 AM »
There were powerful persistent easterly winds north of Greenland that slowed the ice relative to the rotating frame, the ice moved north/turned left. It's unusual because normally/previously the ice would be too compact and resistant to this much compression. Nullschool

Sterks

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2766 on: August 12, 2018, 01:04:11 AM »
Looking at the ECMWF forecast, the storm is no longer predicted as intense as it was before, but the coupling with the waning high is going to bring bad winds from Siberia. Potentially this dipole may reappear again past day 5 bringing similar wind pattern but the forecasts have been very unreliable so far in the future

Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2767 on: August 12, 2018, 04:48:46 AM »
I want to see a forecast from frivolous, neven and bbr to compare and contrast. Things look very interesting right now, and they are usually the best forecasters. 

I am stumped on what is going to happen over the next couple of weeks.  But it looks very interesting! 

note:  bbr.  I mean your short term forecasts. The 10 plus day shit is worthless.  But you know weather and if you keep it short term, I trust your projections.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 04:59:39 AM by Rod »

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2768 on: August 12, 2018, 05:23:33 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-08-11...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2769 on: August 12, 2018, 10:28:49 AM »
August 7-11.

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2770 on: August 12, 2018, 10:38:01 AM »
I want to see a forecast from frivolous, neven and bbr to compare and contrast. Things look very interesting right now, and they are usually the best forecasters.

Others are doing a good job, too. It's a group effort.

My forecast is still the same. I expect those tight isobars (=wind) in the coming two days to have an effect 2-3 days from now on the JAXA data, but I don't know whether it will be sustained after that. It seems another high will be forming on the Siberian side, but at this time of year there's a power shift from high to low wrt ice melt, as the Sun goes down more and more, and rays are more easily reflected.

Still not sure 2018 will end in the top 3, but top 5 should be doable. An intense cyclone passing directly over the ESS might make a difference.
Compare, compare, compare

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2771 on: August 12, 2018, 10:48:51 AM »
August 7-11.
Of the two main laggatds, it seems the ESS is starting to see some melting, as evidenced by the disappearance of some of the slush, especially on the western side. OTOH the Beaufort is again seeing import of new ice, and very low melt rates.
An honorable mention to the CAA, where ice refuses to disappear or flush southwards (as explaned by A-Team recently).

AvantGuardian

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2772 on: August 12, 2018, 11:51:02 AM »
Sentinel has some new shots of the Lincoln Sea. Holy smoke, did it melt out fast or what!
Looking at the SST bandits inbound, I suppose its not surprising. Must be chewing the bums outa the glaciers in Greenland, Awful lots meltwater being flushed out the Nares and all round the edges of the basin too.
Navy brat, student at Hawaiki state, majoring in oceanography, climate and parapsychology.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2773 on: August 12, 2018, 11:59:52 AM »
Today's ecmwf wave, temps and wind from windy
edit: Periphery seas with occasional >2m waves and the forecast remains quite stormy in the Fram Strait next weekend
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 12:29:48 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2774 on: August 12, 2018, 06:26:37 PM »
this could stir things up a bit where we had some reduced melt and/or new ice-imports.

the winds are going to bring some warm and humid air in a double pack as it looks right now.

could well be that the first event will stir things up and the follow will finish off what's already vulnerable.

of course only if it will come true, the last prediction was only 4 days out, only slightly more than the 3 days i think are kind of reliable and things have changed (weakened) quite a bit.

anyhow i think that that arm won'b be able to dodge much more of such attacks and there is still enough time for a few storms to pass before it will be too cold.

you have to go and watch the animation to get the full impressions of what's happening, should there build some kind of a storm alley that wouln't be good for the reminder.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2775 on: August 12, 2018, 07:23:32 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
He may extrapolation from research like this:

 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2960
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2776 on: August 12, 2018, 07:33:58 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Of course not and smoke in the air from fires has no bearing on the warmth of the air.
Actually, it can.

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/IIT-team-tracks-brown-carbon’s-effect-on-atmospheric-warming/article16703349.ece

Among other effects, it increases capture of UV which can heat the upper and mid atmosphere.

Not certain exactly how this affects melting but unlikely the effect is good. The effect is likely more pronounced off peak insolation.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2777 on: August 12, 2018, 08:14:06 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.
I did some internet research and posted it where it had been suggested we take the 'warm smoke' discussion.  It appears some may have missed it.  Rising smoke is warmer than the air around it and horizontally moving smoke is just a little cooler than the air below it.  (The hot dry air the smoke is in rises in cooler surrounding air, but expands as it goes up, cooling faster than the moist 'relatively stable' air around it.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2778 on: August 12, 2018, 08:53:03 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
He may extrapolation from research like this:

 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2960

Well I think he came up with the idea that large fires warm the air, and the resulting extra warm air mass can be discerned by the smoke. But as Tor says, this belongs elsewhere.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2779 on: August 12, 2018, 09:58:18 PM »
Well I think he came up with the idea that large fires warm the air, and the resulting extra warm air mass can be discerned by the smoke. But as Tor says, this belongs elsewhere.
Large fires create heat but they do not form in vacuums <snip; just stop already. JP> they are more likely to occur in extant warm / hot airmasses and then add further to their potency via lofted plumes of burning carbon <snip; just stop already. JP>
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 12:53:57 AM by Jim Pettit »

A-Team

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2780 on: August 12, 2018, 11:15:50 PM »
The images below look into a suggestion of FishOut that the north Greenland anomaly has to do with warm Atlantic Water somehow making its way west rather than (or in addition) to its usual circling to the east around Yermak and Svalbard.

This could result from a weakening of the East Greenland Current, or an eddy from countercurrent flow or layers at different depths passing under/over each other, perhaps as a 'new normal' for late summer or just a pulse due to one-off wind or salinity patterns.

The first gif shows the relevant 17 days of WorldView ending Aug 12th, enough to cover the transition to Lincoln Sea ice disintegration. The same days of surface water temperature according to Mercator Ocean are embedded in its lower left corner. The first and last days of salinity are also shown.

The mp4 shows 84 days of four radar views: Jaxa RGB, Ascat, AMSR2 and PR89 from 20 May to 11. Aug 18. There does appear to be some support for anomalous forking of the West Spitsbergen Current. In this view, the Lincoln Sea ice matrix is melting out from below from warmer waters, though air temperatures, wind displacement, wave mixing, insolation and weaker-than-we-thought ice will have contributions to make too.

The two stills show the fragmented nature of the ice (from zlabe, Sentinel) and an analysis of the 12 Feb 18 SSW event (polar cap geopotential, m) relative to a later NAO turning negative (from ypeings@UC Irvine).
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 11:58:34 PM by A-Team »

pearscot

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2781 on: August 12, 2018, 11:17:41 PM »
Sure looks warm and humid up there today!

pls!

binntho

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2782 on: August 12, 2018, 11:24:33 PM »

Large fires create heat but they do not form in vacuums so that is not what I said, I said they are more likely to occur in extant warm / hot airmasses and then add further to their potency via lofted plumes of burning carbon, but thanks for putting another OT post in the thread trying to get the last word via misquoting me (again).

Well I may have misunderstood this comment:

I've never understood that forest fires in Siberia or elsewhere could be a knockout blow for Arctic ice. In fact, I doubt this could be the case.
Forest fires occur because of extant heat / dry conditions. They then loft enormous plumes of burning carbon into the atmosphere at extremely high temperatures (in fact they can create their own surface weather). When occurring en-masse I see no reason why plumes of smoke wouldn't compound continental heat cannons over the high Arctic where they act to enhance insolation (over areas that are by then open ocean) and reduce albedo when deposited onto the surface on the bits of ice in between.

"... compund continental heat cannons ..." ? What does that mean anyway?

In Iceland, with 10.000 km2 or so of vegetated area, a wildland fire occurs every few years (usually in moss and shrubs rather than forests since we don't really have any). This happens at fairly low temperatures, but most importantly, after prolonged dry spells. So smoke plumes from Iceland might indicate a fire burning in an air temperature of  10-15 degrees C in dry moss or shrubs.

Siberia does have vast forest much further south than Iceland. These burn as well, every now and then, and the temperature is probably quite high when this happens, but as Tor has pointed out, the smoke itself doesn't say anything about the eventual temperature of the air.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2783 on: August 13, 2018, 12:57:54 AM »
I'm thoroughly enjoying this thread about smoke. So I shall contribute. (feel like I'm on Reddit, tee-hee)

Quote
lofted plumes of burning carbon
Didn't realize that lofted smoke was always continually burning. No wonder lofted smoke = warmer.

[/sarcasm]

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2784 on: August 13, 2018, 01:09:15 AM »

Large fires create heat but they do not form in vacuums so that is not what I said, I said they are more likely to occur in extant warm / hot airmasses and then add further to their potency via lofted plumes of burning carbon, but thanks for putting another OT post in the thread trying to get the last word via misquoting me (again).

Well I may have misunderstood this comment:

I've never understood that forest fires in Siberia or elsewhere could be a knockout blow for Arctic ice. In fact, I doubt this could be the case.
Forest fires occur because of extant heat / dry conditions. They then loft enormous plumes of burning carbon into the atmosphere at extremely high temperatures (in fact they can create their own surface weather). When occurring en-masse I see no reason why plumes of smoke wouldn't compound continental heat cannons over the high Arctic where they act to enhance insolation (over areas that are by then open ocean) and reduce albedo when deposited onto the surface on the bits of ice in between.

"... compund continental heat cannons ..." ? What does that mean anyway?

In Iceland, with 10.000 km2 or so of vegetated area, a wildland fire occurs every few years (usually in moss and shrubs rather than forests since we don't really have any). This happens at fairly low temperatures, but most importantly, after prolonged dry spells. So smoke plumes from Iceland might indicate a fire burning in an air temperature of  10-15 degrees C in dry moss or shrubs.

Siberia does have vast forest much further south than Iceland. These burn as well, every now and then, and the temperature is probably quite high when this happens, but as Tor has pointed out, the smoke itself doesn't say anything about the eventual temperature of the air.
Compound continental heat cannons = make them even worse than they would be if they didn't pick up the plumes of carbon and then deposit them over the High Arctic. Heat alone is bad, as the papers cited in previous posts prove, when plumes contain smoke, they absorb even more insolation.

Also: back to the melting season, the models are now beginning to show increasingly widespread snowfalls across the northern tier of Canada and the CAA. I think something important that occurred this summer is that the CAA held up remarkably well, with thick ice remaining even in Foxe Basin (and there is even ice remaining next to Quebec's NW tip in Hudson Bay, though it is dwindling).

Combined with the soon-to-be entirely open waters of the Chukchi, Beaufort, ESS, and Laptev, this is going to focus the PV into the CAA / Northern Canada as snows begin falling. This may actually result in a delay in refreeze for the aforementioned peripheral seas now open, as the PV could become "trapped" in Northern Canada, while each successive cold shot S into North America will ultimately drift over the ATL, lofting even more oceanic heat into the High Arctic. This could translate into an early end to the melt season for parts of the CAB and the CAA, an extended melt season for all parts of the Arctic already open, and a very early winter for parts of the continents, particularly Canada.



Note how as the PV falls into Nunavut, the pinwheels of ridging / oceanic warmth into the High Arctic (Laptev in particular) are only projected to worsen. This could result in a late minimum, as the Laptev / ATL front are usually where refreeze first begins. This year, that is unlikely to be the case (it will first occur over CAA and adjacent areas of the CAB).



The EURO also agrees fairly closely with the new GFS.






Rod

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2785 on: August 13, 2018, 01:09:53 AM »

Others are doing a good job, too. It's a group effort.

Thank you Neven, and I agree.   I very much enjoy seeing what everyone has to say, and there are a lot of very knowledgeable people who add to the discussion!

I should have been more clear in my request.  bbr and frivolous have fun forecasts because they both typically add a lot of emotion, and that makes it interesting.  I think they both are very knowledgeable (even though people disagree with bbr on other points). 

Your forecasts are more restrained, but highly respected, and I enjoy seeing what you have to say.

I certainly meant no disrespect to all of the great people who post on this forum.  My main point is that the melting season is winding down, and I'm anxious to see if we have any late weather surprises in front of us. 

I'm just not very good at looking at the weather charts.   Thank you for your post. 

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2786 on: August 13, 2018, 04:29:12 AM »
These 10-day forecasts are nonsense. Why bother?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2787 on: August 13, 2018, 04:48:39 AM »
bbr, if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, against the wishes of many here who are clearly more knowledgable than yourself, shouldn't you at least post ensemble forecasts instead of operational? Not that it would make that much difference in the relatively remote likelihood that the 10-day forecasts verify, even when there is some agreement between EPS, GEFS, etc.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 05:04:49 AM by Ice Shieldz »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2788 on: August 13, 2018, 05:07:45 AM »
bbr, if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, against the wishes of many here who are clearly more knowledgable than yourself, shouldn't you at least post ensemble forecasts instead of operational? Not that it would make that much difference in the relatively remote likelihood that the 10-day forecasts verify, even when there is some agreement between EPS, GEFS, etc.
I didn't post 10 day forecasts, I posted intermediate imagery and included D10 as well. <snip; I have a lot of work, bbr2314, and I'd prefer to spend time with my family than on snipping your posts; N.>
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 11:13:44 AM by Neven »

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2789 on: August 13, 2018, 05:43:33 AM »
I don't know much about weather forecasts as well as lots of other stuff, and therefore I make it my business to read each and every post and try to learn something from it. This is why I am so bothered when clutter is posted.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2790 on: August 13, 2018, 06:03:25 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-08-12...

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2791 on: August 13, 2018, 06:40:38 AM »
After a cloudy July, the Arctic sea ice on the Russian side has suffered under two weeks of high atmospheric pressure and the clear skies that brings.

The ice north of the Laptev Sea, in particular, has also wilted under southerly winds carrying heat from the Siberian land mass.

With that high pressure system expected to finally be displaced by a low pressure system arriving from the Kara Sea, soon the Siberian heat should instead be steered towards the large sea ice lobe that extends southwards into the Eastern Siberian Sea.

That prediction is illustrated below with a earth.nullschool.net 48 hour forecast.

As I understand it, we're transitioning into the late stage of the melt season where exposure to heat and salt in the water becomes more important to melting the sea ice than direct heat from sunlight or winds. Therefore, the predicted arrival of low pressure and relatively strong winds to stir things up, will probably be conducive to a continuation of strong melting in the middle part of August.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 06:56:43 AM by slow wing »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2792 on: August 13, 2018, 12:41:10 PM »
...

I'm kind of thinking of "Atlantification" as code for "the old order has broken down."

I don't know how long it will take for a new order to establish itself, but I'm pretty sure it will not look like the old order.

I also don't really know what that order will look like, but my guess is that the Polar Atmospheric cell will be gone and the Central Arctic Basin will be ice free (not near the continents).  I don't actually know when it will happen, but I don't see any reason it won't be this fall.
Last sentense - is quite strange. For the CAB to be ice free this fall, huge energy is needed to be added there, and soon, to melt ~5000 km3 of sea ice now present there. And every last kilogram of that ice has the usually huge enthalpy of fusion, of course. So tell me, how can the CAB become ice-free this fall? Do you mean the possibility of an asteroid hitting it or somesuch? Otherwise, can't get sufficient energy to see it happen this year!

Neven

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2793 on: August 13, 2018, 01:34:08 PM »
I've just posted a special report on the open water north of Greenland thing: Circumnavigating Greenland.

I've also written a bit about what to expect Arctic-wide towards the end of the latest PIOMAS Update.
Compare, compare, compare

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2794 on: August 13, 2018, 01:42:14 PM »
Today's ecmwf wave, temps and wind from windy.
Update on the Mclure Strait, amsr2-uhh and ascat, jul18-aug12

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2795 on: August 13, 2018, 01:45:45 PM »
I also don't really know what that order will look like, but my guess is that the Polar Atmospheric cell will be gone and the Central Arctic Basin will be ice free (not near the continents).  I don't actually know when it will happen, but I don't see any reason it won't be this fall.
Last sentense - is quite strange. For the CAB to be ice free this fall, huge energy is needed to be added there, and soon, to melt ~5000 km3 of sea ice now present there. And every last kilogram of that ice has the usually huge enthalpy of fusion, of course. So tell me, how can the CAB become ice-free this fall? Do you mean the possibility of an asteroid hitting it or somesuch? Otherwise, can't get sufficient energy to see it happen this year!

There is plenty of energy there, less than 100 meters from the surface.  If the water gets stirred up enough, or if enough of the freshwater lens goes away, then the CAB will melt even without sunlight.

NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2796 on: August 13, 2018, 01:58:17 PM »
There is plenty of energy there, less than 100 meters from the surface.  If the water gets stirred up enough, or if enough of the freshwater lens goes away, then the CAB will melt even without sunlight.

Which would require a storm of unprecedented size, duration and intensity.  There was a reason the GAC of 2012 was dubbed a Great Arctic Cyclone.  Because it was "Great", i.e. it covered virtually the whole cab, it was very intense and it lasted a long time, as these things go.

Even then, it didn't melt the amount of ice that you are suggesting.

When you suggest an entire ice season of melt in the last 3 weeks of August and the first week of September.  I'd suggest expecting a fairly healthy skepticism.

I won't say that the chances are exactly 0, because the Arctic has become a very unpredictable place.  However I'd put it in very low fractions of 1.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2797 on: August 13, 2018, 02:00:40 PM »
Fall ends December 21.

NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2798 on: August 13, 2018, 02:31:00 PM »
I've also written a bit about what to expect Arctic-wide towards the end of the latest PIOMAS Update.

Looking more like top 5 right now.  Since Aug 3rd NSIDC Chartic has been trending significantly away from 2012 and, in the last 2 days, has crossed 2016 and is trending towards crossing 2015.

Certainly the ESS may start that all over again, but one thing that has been common this  year is the sheer length of time it has taken for seemingly vulnerable ice to melt out.  There are only really 4 weeks left and the DMI 80N is trending back towards the norm and the norm will push it below 0c in the next two weeks.  All that moist air will then fall as snow.

Back to watching an interesting melt season.  Another two weeks should make it clear.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #2799 on: August 13, 2018, 02:40:02 PM »
Fall ends December 21.

I would put melting continuing in the CAB, this year, until December 21st, in very low fractions of 0.5.

There is ice in the Beaufort, close to shore and in the Hudson, which still has not melted out.  Ditto the NW passage, CAA and, let us not forget, the ESS.

You are asking us to believe that a storm of such intensity that it will pump warm water, from 100m down, over the entire CAB, whether it is ice covered or not, will turn up and rage over the arctic from now until October.

Probability?  Very low.  The CAB will be below 0C by September and will drop from there.  Once the sun goes down that temp will drop much more.

There may come a day when this happens.  Just not this decade, or likely the next.
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