The 2018 melting season

[Dharma Rupa]

The Lincoln Sea and thereabouts still looks a mess. This via Aqua yesterday:

Lots of interesting questions about there.  Any idea what the current temps are?  ((Any idea if they will fall below -10 anytime soon?  -- NVM))

[Tor Bejnar]

Hans Island (just south of Petermann Fjord)  in the middle of Nares Strait recent air temperatures below.  Another site indicates "29F" water (~-2C).  The 14-day forecast for Hans Is. is for quite steady temperatures.  I expect it to be colder further north, though.

[Rod]

The Bremen is currently off Wrangell island and the temperature is 13ºC, the last several days the weather has been good, temperatures up to 10 or so and sunny at times.

I have really enjoyed following the Bremen for the last few days.  It is enlightening to have a thermometer moving through the arctic instead of just relying on the weather models. I want to thank you and Jim Hunt for posting about the ship!  If you two had not mentioned it, I would never have known about it.

I wish their voyage was not almost over.  Are there any others that you know of that are currently traveling through the arctic and posting real time temperature and weather data?

I really enjoy seeing the real data and not having to rely on weather models.

Thanks again!

[bbr2314]

A heart-shaped 588DM heat dome over the Bering, with love, from the GFS. Seems like its newly almost completely annually ice-free state is going to have growing implications as we enter what used to be the refreeze season for that part of the Arctic.

[GoSouthYoungins]

A heart-shaped 588DM heat dome over the Bering, with love, from the GFS. Seems like its newly almost completely annually ice-free state is going to have growing implications as we enter what used to be the refreeze season for that part of the Arctic.

I agree that Chukchi and Bering are going to have historically poor freezes, but that forecast is a week out. That heart is likely just unrequited love, which won't materialize.

[wolfpack513]

The crazy ridge/block is due to recurving super typhoon Jebi.  A lot of latent heat released into the extratropics.  That’s why both the GFS & Euro are going with an insanely negative WPO.  Off the chart in this graphic. 

[Jontenoy]

What is the technical difference between Area and Extent ?

[Niall Dollard]

Lots of interesting questions about there.  Any idea what the current temps are?  ((Any idea if they will fall below -10 anytime soon?  -- NVM))

Cold temperatures (and snow) has been pretty scarce so far in the high Arctic areas of Ellesmere and northern Greenland.

This morning nullschool is showing some katabatic southerly winds coming down off the Greenland ice cap with temps of -9 and -10 in the bays/inlets and southern reaches of the Lincoln Sea  As you go further north it warms a little. -6 at Cape Morris Jesup and over the centre of the Lincoln and curving around the top of Ellesmere.

But other than the bays/inlets, the -6 C would not be enough to get much of a re-freeze started. Early days.

[pikaia]

What is the technical difference between Area and Extent ?

Area is exactly that, the area of the ice. Extent is the area of water which has ice floating in it (with at least 15% concentration).

[uniquorn]

Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy

[Jim Hunt]

Are there any others that you know of that are currently traveling through the arctic and posting real time temperature and weather data?

Well, for starters there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

[Jim Hunt]

Any idea what the current temps are?

Alert was above zero yesterday:

https://weather.gc.ca/past_conditions/index_e.html?station=ylt

-1 Celsius today

[Darvince]

The latest WaveWatch III forecast for tomorrow evening UTC:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2018/#Aug-30

Not as ridiculous as 3 days ago, but still very "significant"!

The ice seems to have noticed, but barely:

August 29th
August 31st
September 2nd

[echoughton]

I just don't know how you could view that and call it a MESS? It looks like my Delaware in January...BEAUTIFUL and mostly frozen, all covered in snow. But, just like all or most of the other members, feel free to call it a mess if you like. 

[Jim Hunt]

The ice seems to have noticed, but barely:

UH AMSR2 area and extent both increased yesterday. Meanwhile here's today's hindcast:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2018/#Sep-03

[Phil.]

Are there any others that you know of that are currently traveling through the arctic and posting real time temperature and weather data?

Well, for starters there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

Currently at 75.873333° N 80.702000° W showing -1ºC in open water.
Judging by their current position and direction I think they must have changed their plans and aren't going to go via Bellott.

[litesong]

..... there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

A couple of years ago, I heard about a drone that would ascend way above the height of a ship, that would guide ships to & through the thinnest patches of sea ice in ice packs. Has the use of drones expanded & are they effective in their mission?

[litesong]

I just don't know how you could view that and call it a MESS? It looks like my Delaware in January...BEAUTIFUL and mostly frozen, all covered in snow. But, just like all or most of the other members, feel free to call it a mess if you like. 

General Washington probably called it "a mess", instead of beautiful, when he began the Crossing of the Delaware. "Mess" was the word to use, considering only Washington's personal Crossing was successful, while two other Continental Army crossing attempts failed. Fortunately, the commercial strong & stout ferries, barges, boats, & Dorymen of the Delaware had been delivered to Delaware south shores for General Washington use, were able to fight the storm "mess", to help deliver horses, artillery & men to the overview of Trenton, where Hessian soldiers were garrisoned. Yeah, it was the Delaware "storm & ice mess" that caused the enemy, who had been warned of a possible crossing, to believe Washington couldn't Cross the Delaware.
Actually, Washington's Delaware Crossing wasn't that long ago. One of the Continental Army soldiers lived long enough to have his "photograph" taken.
It does appear that the present Arctic "Northwest Passage MESS" is causing the U.S., Canada & others to delay military & commercial efforts, north of Greenland & Canadian Archipelago. Only sporadic efforts now exist. Meanwhile, russia, using strong & stout (even nuclear) icebreakers, have CONTINUOUS commercial & military (even nuclear) Arctic operations during summer "less mess?"  sea ice conditions on the Northeast Passage.
"Mess" to ya!     

[Niall Dollard]

General Washington probably called it "a mess", instead of beautiful, when he began the Crossing of the Delaware.

Washington Delaware. Only reminds me of Groucho @1:30 (with apologies to mods for O/T. )

[uniquorn]

While looking for piomas' thick ice north of Greenland I came across this in the Nares/Lincoln
Worldview sep2-3  https://tinyurl.com/ybq592yl

edit: A good view of ice north of Ellesmere yesterday.
Terra/modis, brightness/contrast enhanced, CLAHE enhanced (1MB)

[Phil.]

..... there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

A couple of years ago, I heard about a drone that would ascend way above the height of a ship, that would guide ships to & through the thinnest patches of sea ice in ice packs. Has the use of drones expanded & are they effective in their mission?

The Dogbark used one this summer and I think they're being used more commonly (Polarstern).
Here's a shot of the Dogbark anchored off the Alaskan coast.

[Niall Dollard]

While looking for piomas' thick ice north of Greenland I came across this in the Nares/Lincoln
Worldview sep2-3  https://tinyurl.com/ybq592yl

That's a substantial crack.

Interesting also to see the movement of two nearby ice floes to the left of the image. The leftmost floe (underneath the word "world" ) moves north south whilst the floe directly to the east (underneath the word "view") moves simultaneously in the opposing direction, south north.
I can only assume the stresses are large.   

[Wherestheice]

[Niall Dollard]

Further to the NW of Uniquorn's previous GIF above of the Lincoln Sea, there has also been a lift off from the Ellesmere coast.

I presume this is all ice that was briefly landfast and won't spark a Ward-Hunt-panic again !

[NeilT]

Last week NSIDC chartic.

The big question is does the ESS collapse and 2018 follows 2008 down to give it 6th place.  Or does it not collapse and 2018 crosses 2010 some point between Sept 9th and Sept 16th for a 9th place finish???

[Michael Hauber]

The current GFS forecast towards the end of the 7 day period is quite spectacular in the ESS direction.  Could give the ice there a real smash if it comes off, but reliability of stuff at 5 days + and all that.....

Not much prospects of further melt from above for this season on the Atlantic side though.

[Rod]

Are there any others that you know of that are currently traveling through the arctic and posting real time temperature and weather data?

Well, for starters there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

Currently at 75.873333° N 80.702000° W showing -1ºC in open water.
Judging by their current position and direction I think they must have changed their plans and aren't going to go via Bellott.

Thank you Jim and Phil!   I really enjoy seeing the real time images and temperature data that the ships provide.  I find it much more interesting than looking at computer weather models.

Thanks again!

[Frivolousz21]

The Euro is ridiculous  with the WAA it has from day 4-5 on. 

Would really hammer the pacific  side.

[slow wing]

U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-03...

[Aluminium]

August 29 - September 3.

[Phil.]

Are there any others that you know of that are currently traveling through the arctic and posting real time temperature and weather data?

Well, for starters there's the Bremen's sister ship Hanseatic, currently braving the Northwest Passage. This is from yesterday evening (UTC):

Currently at 75.873333° N 80.702000° W showing -1ºC in open water.
Judging by their current position and direction I think they must have changed their plans and aren't going to go via Bellott.

Thank you Jim and Phil!   I really enjoy seeing the real time images and temperature data that the ships provide.  I find it much more interesting than looking at computer weather models.

Thanks again!

You're welcome, I like to see them myself.  The HL fleet do a really good job with their webcams.
Hanseatic is now cruising in Jones Sound with some great scenery, a relatively balmy 2ºC.

[litesong]

The sun is less than 7.5arcdeg above the horizon at the North Pole & will be just over a trace above 7arcdeg tomorrow. Almost all direct Total Solar Irradiation (which has been at sub-normal levels for 12+ years) is being reflected back to space & no direct solar energy will soon be the Arctic norm. Already, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel have fallen ~ 3degC. from summertime high temperatures. Despite 12 years of sub-standard TSI, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel average temperatures are 1+ degC above normal..... above the norm & well above the norm, increasingly the "norm" for the 21st century fall, winter & early spring seasons.

[NeilT]

It should not be that big a surprise, should it??

[meddoc]

The sun is less than 7.5arcdeg above the horizon at the North Pole & will be just over a trace above 7arcdeg tomorrow. Almost all direct Total Solar Irradiation (which has been at sub-normal levels for 12+ years) is being reflected back to space & no direct solar energy will soon be the Arctic norm. Already, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel have fallen ~ 3degC. from summertime high temperatures. Despite 12 years of sub-standard TSI, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel average temperatures are 1+ degC above normal..... above the norm & well above the norm, increasingly the "norm" for the 21st century fall, winter & early spring seasons.

Solar Energy is One Thing. Arctic Amplification through Ocean Currents & Atmospheric Convection will still make some spikes.

[FrostKing70]

Not sure if this is the correct thread; forgive me if it is not!

What happened to the predictions of a GAC from the last week or so?

[be cause]

Like most predictions this year (including mine) the bark was worse than the byte . After all the forcast GAC's and 'roastings' we were promised there is still some mighty stubborn snow-covered ice which has refused to vanish . Currently central pressure of the gac is below 980 and much of the remaining ice is spinning anticlockwise . b.c.

[litesong]

The sun is less than 7.5arcdeg above the horizon at the North Pole & will be just over a trace above 7arcdeg tomorrow. Almost all direct Total Solar Irradiation (which has been at sub-normal levels for 12+ years) is being reflected back to space & no direct solar energy will soon be the Arctic norm. Already, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel have fallen ~ 3degC. from summertime high temperatures. Despite 12 years of sub-standard TSI, Arctic temperatures above the 80th parallel average temperatures are 1+ degC above normal..... above the norm & well above the norm, increasingly the "norm" for the 21st century fall, winter & early spring seasons.

Solar Energy is One Thing. Arctic Amplification through Ocean Currents & Atmospheric Convection will still make some spikes.

Since the TSI has been low for 12+ years & the Earth continues to heat, "Arctic Amplification through Ocean Currents & Atmospheric Convection" has gone beyond spikes. Present Arctic sea ice volume is ~ 9000 cubic kilometers less than the Arctic sea ice Volumes of the 1980's, the ice melting environmental energy gains, representing ~ 30 times the U.S. annual energy consumption. 
Of course, AGW deniers, when first noting the continuous sub-standard TSI, predicted a return to ice age conditions.

[gerontocrat]

Currently central pressure of the gac is below 980

The mnemonic GAC was coined for a spectacular and long lasting low pressure system in the Arctic in 2012.

These days any old low pressure system that might, or might not, develop into a significant system is called a GAC. The term has become meaningless.

[Michael Hauber]

Not sure if this is the correct thread; forgive me if it is not!

What happened to the predictions of a GAC from the last week of so?

There is still a pretty decent cyclone going on around Laptev/Barents.  Not far off the intensity forecast a while back.  Pretty large system getting up towards the GAC 2012 size, but a fair gap in intensity.

The forecast Friv and I commented about just a day or so ago of a huge heat influx has moderated.  The forecast had a perfect alignment of strong high and low plunging a strong warm front in between directly into the Arctic.  The alignment has shifted a bit and the warm front now strikes a fairly glancing blow.  Until the next model run....

[slow wing]

U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-04...

[oren]

While the CAB has started a late export attack in the direction of the Atlantic, the low concentration ice in the ESS and the Beaufort Little Blob flatly refuse to melt. Small wonder extent loss has completely stalled.
I wonder if the season still has one last remaining punch, or if it goes out with a whimper.

[Wherestheice]

While the CAB has started a late export attack in the direction of the Atlantic, the low concentration ice in the ESS and the Beaufort Little Blob flatly refuse to melt. Small wonder extent loss has completely stalled.
I wonder if the season still has one last remaining punch, or if it goes out with a whimper.

Mother nature is preventing the melting of the ESS because she is trying to tell people to change. Will people listen? That is the question.

[Jim Hunt]

What happened to the predictions of a GAC from the last week of so?

My latest "GAC 2018" update:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2018/#Sep-05

Feel free to debate whether it merits the “Great” prefix, but this is how the early September 2018 Arctic cyclone has panned out. According to this morning’s Environment Canada synopsis the cyclone is centred near the coast of the Laptev Sea and is down to a MSLP of 977 hPa.

[echoughton]

While the CAB has started a late export attack in the direction of the Atlantic, the low concentration ice in the ESS and the Beaufort Little Blob flatly refuse to melt. Small wonder extent loss has completely stalled.
I wonder if the season still has one last remaining punch, or if it goes out with a whimper.

Mother nature is preventing the melting of the ESS because she is trying to tell people to change. Will people listen? That is the question.

You really need to be advocating in a different venue. Try a Facebook Climate Change group. Everything you post is aimed at smacking deniers...of which there are not many up here.

[Shared Humanity]

Currently central pressure of the gac is below 980

The mnemonic GAC was coined for a spectacular and long lasting low pressure system in the Arctic in 2012.

These days any old low pressure system that might, or might not, develop into a significant system is called a GAC. The term has become meaningless.

I wish the term had never been coined....ditto "Garlic Press".

[jplotinus]

The latest ((Sep 4) U. Bremen concentration image shows NW Passage (southern) to be all but open, it looks like:

[NeilT]

                                                                                                                                                     

I wish the term had never been coined....ditto "Garlic Press".

It was coined for a very good reason because we'd never seen anything like it before and the impact was huge.

The problem is that they move into general use and the original meaning is lost.

Perhaps when we see the return of something as large and damaging as the 2012 event we can call it the Humongous Arctic Cyclone  (HAC), just in case anyone is in any doubt as to the scale of the event...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

[kassy]

A term can't help how people use it so preferably we just tell people their use is incorrect? With one thread per melt season a bit of education might work?

[oren]

A term can't help how people use it so preferably we just tell people their use is incorrect? With one thread per melt season a bit of education might work?

I agree. GAC has been abused here this season (though the last few days may be an exception - not my area really), but it's still a useful and meaningful term when used properly.

[Dharma Rupa]

A term can't help how people use it so preferably we just tell people their use is incorrect? With one thread per melt season a bit of education might work?

I agree. GAC has been abused here this season (though the last few days may be an exception - not my area really), but it's still a useful and meaningful term when used properly.

Having avoided using the term myself, may I suggest that it be reserved from here on to 1) a storm larger than the GAC of 2012, and 2) larger than the last GAC...That is, in order to be a GAC it has to be the largest/longest storm as of the date it happened.