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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3300 on: September 05, 2018, 05:34:39 PM »
A term can't help how people use it so preferably we just tell people their use is incorrect? With one thread per melt season a bit of education might work?
I agree. GAC has been abused here this season (though the last few days may be an exception - not my area really), but it's still a useful and meaningful term when used properly.

Having avoided using the term myself, may I suggest that it be reserved from here on to 1) a storm larger than the GAC of 2012, and 2) larger than the last GAC...That is, in order to be a GAC it has to be the largest/longest storm as of the date it happened.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3301 on: September 05, 2018, 07:50:17 PM »
The latest ((Sep 4) U. Bremen concentration image shows NW Passage (southern) to be all but open, it looks like:

Not according to the Canadian ice maps it isn't. There's plenty of old ice blocking the way still:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

colchonero

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3302 on: September 05, 2018, 07:58:07 PM »
The latest ((Sep 4) U. Bremen concentration image shows NW Passage (southern) to be all but open, it looks like:

Not according to the Canadian ice maps it isn't. There's plenty of old ice blocking the way still:

I think that is what he wanted to say. He wrote it looks all BUT open, so yeah it's definitely closed either way (canadian ice map, and UH)..

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3303 on: September 05, 2018, 08:17:37 PM »
What happened to the predictions of a GAC from the last week of so?

My latest "GAC 2018" update:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2018/#Sep-05

Quote
Feel free to debate whether it merits the “Great” prefix, but this is how the early September 2018 Arctic cyclone has panned out. According to this morning’s Environment Canada synopsis the cyclone is centred near the coast of the Laptev Sea and is down to a MSLP of 977 hPa.

Hmmm.  More than the pressure, it's the specific location of the storm I find interesting.  It's set to pull lots of warmer air up from the south across central Asia.

The next few days of the GFS show fairly potent amounts of heat crossing the eastern Laptev and ESS.  I'm doubtful it will have any significant effect on the ice there - too little, too late in the season - but it may permit bottom melt to continue and the wind may stir up the water to make more heat accessible.  At this point, I still doubt the current top 4 records are going to be challenged but this may tighten things up.
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3304 on: September 05, 2018, 10:41:30 PM »
The melting season is going to end soon. The Russian scientists have discovered the first young ice and nilas in the northern/western part of the CAA:
http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1
« Last Edit: September 05, 2018, 10:58:04 PM by Stephan »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3305 on: September 05, 2018, 11:46:02 PM »
The melting season is going to end soon. The Russian scientists have discovered the first young ice and nilas in the northern/western part of the CAA:
http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1
I don't know about that.



The PAC front is going to keep going and the ATL shows no sign of slowing down. I think we could see a very odd situation as the discrepancies present earlier in the year manifest in a worsened format upon refreeze. I.E., why on earth would the Bering freeze any more than it did last year when most of it has been accumulating heat for 365 days + and we are now observing deepwater changes to its makeup?

I think as the Russian map shows, the CAA is going to refreeze very quickly. So will Kara and Hudson, and parts of the CAB. But if recent trends are any indicator the main PAC and ATL fronts could remain active into winter and I would anticipate we see some very chaotic behavior from both ends up in the High North (esp combined with how much heat Laptev has taken up this summer). This will have very severe impacts to sensible weather in the populated regions of the world.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3306 on: September 06, 2018, 12:23:34 AM »
The melting season is going to end soon. The Russian scientists have discovered the first young ice and nilas in the northern/western part of the CAA:
http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1

I am sceptical of that map. For the areas shown, south of Melville Island and South of Banks Island, temperatures have been not low enough for young sea ice to form.  Rea Point on Melville has nt dipped below -4 C. From what I can see visually on Worldview, Sentinel and Landsat, the sea is clear of ice.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3307 on: September 06, 2018, 01:38:20 AM »
Can't pick anything that looks like fresh ice where the Russian maps says.  But further east.  Maybe new ice?  To the right of the big island.  Hazy stuff that wasn't there yesterday, and if you put channel 3-6-7 it is redish, and not white like the clouds.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3308 on: September 06, 2018, 07:07:08 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-05...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3309 on: September 06, 2018, 10:58:01 AM »
September 1-5.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3310 on: September 06, 2018, 11:21:51 AM »
Quote

The PAC front is going to keep going and the ATL shows no sign of slowing down. I think we could see a very odd situation as the discrepancies present earlier in the year manifest in a worsened format upon refreeze. I.E., why on earth would the Bering freeze any more than it did last year when most of it has been accumulating heat for 365 days + and we are now observing deepwater changes to its makeup?


Freezing of the Bering Sea is also highly influenced by synoptic weather patterns. Like last year with lots of storms and southerlies.

Current SST anomalies show greatest departures in Chukchi and Russian side of Bering. Meanwhile down at the south end near the Aleutians, there has been no ice cover for a long time and the anomalies are lowest neg here.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3311 on: September 06, 2018, 04:37:29 PM »
Can't pick anything that looks like fresh ice where the Russian maps says.  But  Maybe new ice?  To the right of the big island.  Hazy stuff that wasn't there yesterday, and if you put channel 3-6-7 it is redish, and not white like the clouds.
The areas in question are near Banks and Melville islands.  Near Banks, we're talking about the Amundsen Gulf where SST's are running 2-4C.  The area they think is freezing on the S. side of Melville is somewhere between -1 and 0C.  Looking at Worldview from yesterday, I'm seeing no signs of new ice (areas highlighted in screenshot), so I suspect the Russian map is wrong about these particular details.

Edit: - checking recent temperatures in the area, it hasn't been anywhere near cold enough for refreeze yet - at best maybe -5 to -3C near Melville, consistently above freezing around Banks.  Nullschool currently shows temperatures in both areas above the freezing point of seawater.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2018, 04:45:37 PM by jdallen »
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slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3312 on: September 07, 2018, 05:18:46 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-06...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3313 on: September 07, 2018, 07:28:17 PM »
Thin ice close to the ESS coast today.
Worldview, ESS and Laptev, viirs true color and brightness temperature band 15, sep7. (530kB)
light blue ~0C
yellow ~7C
(some clouds) edit: https://tinyurl.com/y8tedzqv
« Last Edit: September 07, 2018, 07:34:24 PM by uniquorn »

snrjon

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3314 on: September 07, 2018, 07:41:10 PM »
The latest ((Sep 4) U. Bremen concentration image shows NW Passage (southern) to be all but open, it looks like:

Not according to the Canadian ice maps it isn't. There's plenty of old ice blocking the way still:

There is news that the S/V Thor has made it through the Bellot Strait, but I really wonder how they made it through the 9/10 to Tuktoyaktuk!? I guess this might be the only sailing transit this year.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-thor-de-arrives-tuktoyaktuk-from.html

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3315 on: September 08, 2018, 06:09:42 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-07...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3316 on: September 08, 2018, 08:46:28 AM »
September 3-7.

oren

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3317 on: September 08, 2018, 09:05:52 AM »
A lot of the slush in the ESS suddenly disappeared, after hanging around for so long. Will it make a comeback tomorrow, or is it dead and melted?

Sterks

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3318 on: September 08, 2018, 12:17:40 PM »
The "island" of ice off the coast of Alaska yesterday

Stephan

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3319 on: September 08, 2018, 12:31:33 PM »
I wonder whether it will survive this melting season...

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3320 on: September 08, 2018, 01:23:43 PM »
ESS ice thickness estimates from PIOMAS are apparently more accurate than I believed. Thought them were two notches too high but maybe just one... It's of course possible they're near correct.
Maybe this is why 2030s are often mentioned as the melt out decade for summer, and not the 2020s as I still believe. Winter ice should stay at least until the whole CAB is Atlantified some far out summer. This would probably need two-three months of open waters to get the layers warmed up, mixed and (pretty much) permanently mess the currents up. I'm way out of my comfort zone here.

It's pretty certain that snowfall will be extensive on the dark continents, but how does the arctic atmosphere behave, is another matter. Will it be rain from 20 meters up then sleet between 20-100 m, and snow higher up? This sort of thing without the mountains directing winds and moisture up would be peculiar, but imho possible.
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3321 on: September 08, 2018, 04:33:06 PM »
I wonder whether it will survive this melting season...
Quite possibly:
https://www.weather.gov/images/afc/ice/SST.jpg

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3322 on: September 09, 2018, 07:47:12 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-08...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3323 on: September 09, 2018, 12:02:10 PM »
Update on the Mclure Strait, amsr2-uhh, jul18-sep8.(1.7MB)
Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy.(220KB)
Worldview, Chukchi/ESS, sep9, terra/modis and viirs brightness temperature,band15,day(440KB)
light blue ~0C
yellow ~8C
(some clouds)edit:added bt15 temps
« Last Edit: September 09, 2018, 12:08:36 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3324 on: September 09, 2018, 08:29:11 PM »
A good view north of Greenland today on Worldview. Still upwelling of some kind in Lincoln Sea? (3.7MB, terra/modis true color and clahe enhanced. Click to run)

edit:added scaled bathymetry map
« Last Edit: September 09, 2018, 09:28:48 PM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3325 on: September 09, 2018, 09:03:46 PM »
Looking at the same area back on Worldview, just over 10 years ago the ice had lifted away from both the north tip of Greenland and Ellesmere.


Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3326 on: September 09, 2018, 09:42:34 PM »
DMI 80N seems to be rather intent upon 1 degree above climatology.  I'm betting it will begin to put more average distance as we get into freezing season -- but of course, this is a bet.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3327 on: September 09, 2018, 09:56:51 PM »
Looking at the same area back on Worldview, just over 10 years ago the ice had lifted away from both the north tip of Greenland and Ellesmere.
Yes. I haven't verified it, but I expect that was caused by southerly wind. The image I posted doesn't show lift off. I'm wondering if it shows melt in the Lincoln Sea. Today's wind, what little there is of it, is mostly from the Fram Strait.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3328 on: September 09, 2018, 11:00:18 PM »
The image I posted doesn't show lift off. I'm wondering if it shows melt in the Lincoln Sea. Today's wind, what little there is of it, is mostly from the Fram Strait.

Nullschool was showing temperatures of between -6 and -9 today in the Lincoln Sea - so no surface melt and I doubt if there is much bottom melt either. With those temperatures I would expect any meltponds to be frozen over and small leads starting to freeze.

But as often the case (even in mid winter) big cracks can emerge in the Lincoln as strong currents drift down towards the Kane Basin/Nares. 


uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3329 on: September 10, 2018, 01:11:38 AM »
Thanks Niall, maybe the thinner ice and low wind is just highlighting the bathymetry.

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3330 on: September 10, 2018, 05:44:23 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-09...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3331 on: September 10, 2018, 07:52:04 AM »
September 5-9.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3332 on: September 10, 2018, 10:14:43 AM »
Nullschool showing sub -10 C this morning out in the CAB. First time i have seen it this low this season (away from bays/inlets).

Meanwhile over in the Chukchi and ESS, early this week will see a warm attack. A classic case of freezing at one end, melt at the other.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3333 on: September 10, 2018, 11:16:30 AM »
Looking at GFS forecast average temperatures and SST anomalies from DMI suggests it will only be ocean warmth that keeps overall refreeze commencing now or very soon.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3334 on: September 10, 2018, 12:09:32 PM »
Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy

echoughton

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3335 on: September 10, 2018, 12:18:13 PM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-09...


Why do you always say "false color?" It looks like a true color to me.   8)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3336 on: September 10, 2018, 01:33:17 PM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-09...


Why do you always say "false color?" It looks like a true color to me.   8)
Because the amsr2 data is converted into colours for our eyes and brain to comprehend. The ice is not white, the sea is not blue.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3337 on: September 10, 2018, 01:52:52 PM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-09...


Why do you always say "false color?" It looks like a true color to me.   8)
Because the amsr2 data is converted into colours for our eyes and brain to comprehend. The ice is not white, the sea is not blue.
As we've seen amsr2 data maybe on occasion be affected somewhat by thick clouds so the more true color image could appear too white when this happens. That said, Aluminium's grey scale ice image isn't true color either, though it might represent the albedo somewhat better
« Last Edit: September 10, 2018, 02:44:14 PM by Pmt111500 »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3338 on: September 10, 2018, 09:44:31 PM »
Update on Mercator salinity 0m, jul20-sep9 (every 2nd day to reduce size, 2.5MB)
Tech note - scale is not static

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3339 on: September 10, 2018, 10:31:47 PM »
there is a lot of talk about heat import into the arctic it's eventual effects.

isn't it so that the salinity will increase jointly with the larger areas of open water and in the process, even though heat loss in winter will increase and compensate for some of the excess heat, that the higher salinity will either way delay re-freeze and limit max extent so that there will be some kind of feedback that will further accelerate the ever shrinking ice mass in the arctic ?

further this could as well have an impact on when the first summer BOE will happen and well into the following freezing season.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3340 on: September 10, 2018, 11:39:08 PM »
there is a lot of talk about heat import into the arctic it's eventual effects.

further this could as well have an impact on when the first summer BOE will happen and well into the following freezing season.
In some of the Arctic Seas I think the process is well underway already. I am developing some spreadsheets and graphs to look at each sea and looking at the proportion of open water compared with 100% ice coverage at various times of the year over the years in the satellite record.

One or two examples on the 2018 extent and area thread - but caveat: Still work-in-progress
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slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3341 on: September 11, 2018, 05:23:06 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-10...

Phil42

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3342 on: September 11, 2018, 09:27:44 AM »
Looks like the southern part of the ESS arm and the "Beaufort Island" are slowly melting away after all. On the other hand I think a small extent increase towards the Amundsen Gulf is observable.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3343 on: September 11, 2018, 01:47:49 PM »
Chukchi Sea eddies, jul15-sep10, amsr2-uhh and ascat. (6.8MB, click to run)
Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3344 on: September 12, 2018, 12:25:22 AM »
Looking at the same area back on Worldview, just over 10 years ago the ice had lifted away from both the north tip of Greenland and Ellesmere.
A repeat performance perhaps. Winds mostly from NWNE over the last two days I think so why lift off?
Ekman or coriolis have been mentioned upthread but I am new to those.
edit: added url.  https://tinyurl.com/y8km88nz
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 01:49:58 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3345 on: September 12, 2018, 01:34:43 AM »

A repeat performance perhaps. Winds mostly from NW over the last two days I think so why lift off?


There is some movement again but not as extreme as before. On Monday the surface pressure pattern was low pressure over CAA and High over pole. This ECMWF chart indicates a more East to West surface flow (or even SE to NW).

Wind pattern as of circa 0Z on 12th shown on the nullschool chart also shows a general East to West flow. (second image). (There are local effects shown too eg at Alert the flow bends downwards giving a more N or NW windflow)

This direction would cause a bit of a lift away from the tips of Ellesmere and Greenland. But only I think because of the lack of multiyear ice in this general area this summer. The thicker MYI that is often around would help to ground the ice more to the coasts, but I think with the thinner ice now it is more at the mercy of the winds.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3346 on: September 12, 2018, 01:52:38 AM »
yep, should've been winds from NE

slow wing

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3347 on: September 12, 2018, 05:18:47 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-11...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3348 on: September 12, 2018, 07:02:24 AM »
September 7-11.

johnm33

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Re: The 2018 melting season
« Reply #3349 on: September 12, 2018, 10:14:00 AM »
"A repeat performance perhaps. Winds mostly from NWNE over the last two days I think so why lift off?"
 My amateur take is that we're looking at a rotating frame, the winds are more or less radials from the pole/axis, they slow the ice in the rotating frame, the ice moves north until its speed matches that of the rotating frame. Water rises from the depths to replace that 'lost' mass.