Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

When will be the first year that daily ice volume per PIOMAS goes below 1000 km^3?

2018
10 (8.5%)
2019-2021
20 (16.9%)
2022-2024
32 (27.1%)
2025-2028
30 (25.4%)
2029-2033
15 (12.7%)
2034-2039
3 (2.5%)
2040-2049
2 (1.7%)
2050-2059
1 (0.8%)
2060 or later
5 (4.2%)

Total Members Voted: 115

Voting closed: May 27, 2018, 05:31:41 PM

Author Topic: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018  (Read 21331 times)

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #150 on: May 09, 2018, 12:03:28 AM »
i vote for a sudden death event way before 2040, hence the example with reaching zero in the second half of the 2020ies is what i think is closest to how it will be. nevertheless something telles me that we're in for some kind of ugly surprise soon, not only is only little MYI left, that what's left is about 40% of the volume and that's a lot less energy needed to make that disappear entirely more sooner than later.

i know this is not scientific but science did not believe many later proven facts in the past. new things come from imagination and logical thinking not from established science/knowledge

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 171
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #151 on: May 09, 2018, 12:11:37 AM »
My impression is similar.  I figure it in probabilities... 1 in 10 up to about 2025, 1 in 6 through 2035, and 1 in 4 after that.

After it happens, I shift to thinking of the probability of a refreeze under 1 million KM2. That will take a few decades I think.
This space for Rent.

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 731
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #152 on: May 09, 2018, 04:11:28 AM »
Found this

Setting a power function to origin of zero, and fitting to scatter plot of CT Area as a function of PIOMAS minimum volume, gives a function:

CTArea = 1.287*PIOMASVol^0.5066.

Here is an update of that formula.  The power function in the graph below is calculated from data for 1979-2017 (so there are 39 data points in total):


Using the updated formula I've done some predictions of what  might happen. I have calculated volume based on the linear and polynomial trends since 1979. 

Starting with a 1988 volume of 14.2 which is close to  the figure of both trend lines, I have calculated the volume for subsequent years using the annual declines predicted by the trend lines.

I have then calculated the predicted area based on the formula provided. What is interesting is how quickly area drops away as volume approaches zero.

My 'theory which belongs to me' is that  the polynomial trend is accurate. This is because the Arctic is being warmed by a circular wave of heat approaching from all sides because of AGW. As that energy nears the centre it will spike very quickly and wipe out the remaining ice.

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 157
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #153 on: May 09, 2018, 06:52:48 AM »
Feeling is that it will happen around 2020-2022.

I could not find the way to vote, though... am I missing it?

John_The_Elder

  • New ice
  • Posts: 28
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #154 on: May 09, 2018, 04:35:03 PM »
SUBMIT VOTE button visible in Chrome.
John

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #155 on: May 09, 2018, 11:36:47 PM »
SUBMIT VOTE button visible in Chrome.

I suspect he doesn't realize that the poll is the first message in the thread.

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 157
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #156 on: May 10, 2018, 03:06:49 AM »
SUBMIT VOTE button visible in Chrome.

I suspect he doesn't realize that the poll is the first message in the thread.

Thanks, Dharma, John!

I had already voted, silly me. So no button or chance to change.
But I'll stick with my early vote: 2019-2021

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7174
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 713
  • Likes Given: 467
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #157 on: May 10, 2018, 01:24:54 PM »
I've edited the poll, so people can change their vote if they want.

Crandles, you opened the poll, let me know if you don't want that.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #158 on: May 10, 2018, 08:28:34 PM »
Hi all there,

For many years now i have been following the discussions on this forum. Very informative and to be honest also quite exciting to see what's happening up there in the north. I thought it fun to join the 1000 km3 vote, so here i go.
My prediction is 2019- 2021. This is primarily based on one of the volume grapghs by Jim Petitts. Unfortunately I don't know how to insert it here, hopefully it works with the attachment. The graph can be found at the ASIG site or at http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png
Especially the strong and decade long declining trend in max volume, together with the moderate rise of seasonal melt makes the 1000km3 threshold within reach in the next few years i would say. Next best bet would certainly be 2022-2024





oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4468
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 866
  • Likes Given: 1286
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #159 on: May 11, 2018, 03:12:16 AM »
Welcome, kaixo! The first post is the hardest...

Daniel B.

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #160 on: May 12, 2018, 09:01:47 PM »
Hi all there,

For many years now i have been following the discussions on this forum. Very informative and to be honest also quite exciting to see what's happening up there in the north. I thought it fun to join the 1000 km3 vote, so here i go.
My prediction is 2019- 2021. This is primarily based on one of the volume grapghs by Jim Petitts. Unfortunately I don't know how to insert it here, hopefully it works with the attachment. The graph can be found at the ASIG site or at http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png
Especially the strong and decade long declining trend in max volume, together with the moderate rise of seasonal melt makes the 1000km3 threshold within reach in the next few years i would say. Next best bet would certainly be 2022-2024

Using that graph and a simple linear fit, volume would break through the threshold in 2029.  Using a third-order polynomic would extend the time out further.  Based on the changes since 2007, that would be my bet.

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #161 on: May 12, 2018, 09:08:55 PM »
Welcome, kaixo! The first post is the hardest...
Hi Oren, thank you. After so many years of just 'consuming' interesting thoughts and viewpoints, lets see if i can contribute something usefull as well now and then.  :)

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #162 on: May 12, 2018, 09:36:41 PM »
Hi all there,

For many years now i have been following the discussions on this forum. Very informative and to be honest also quite exciting to see what's happening up there in the north. I thought it fun to join the 1000 km3 vote, so here i go.
My prediction is 2019- 2021. This is primarily based on one of the volume grapghs by Jim Petitts. Unfortunately I don't know how to insert it here, hopefully it works with the attachment. The graph can be found at the ASIG site or at http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png
Especially the strong and decade long declining trend in max volume, together with the moderate rise of seasonal melt makes the 1000km3 threshold within reach in the next few years i would say. Next best bet would certainly be 2022-2024

Using that graph and a simple linear fit, volume would break through the threshold in 2029.  Using a third-order polynomic would extend the time out further.  Based on the changes since 2007, that would be my bet.
Dan B, of course you are correct that by chosing another fit the year of breaking the 1000 km3 threshold changes considerably. However, a linear fit is not realistic i think. If you look at this graph below by Jim Petitt, you see that the average minimum volume per decade is decreasing rapidly.
So yes, maybe a third-order polynomic fit is the right thing, but only if strong negative feedbacks come into play. So far, the numbers don't suggest to me that this is the case. Rather the opposite. For now a second or even fourth polynomal fit seems best.

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #163 on: May 12, 2018, 09:53:55 PM »
So yes, maybe a third-order polynomic fit is the right thing, but only if strong negative feedbacks come into play. So far, the numbers don't suggest to me that this is the case. Rather the opposite. For now a second or even fourth polynomal fit seems best.

Interesting proposition, but can you explain to me how any sort of poly fit would make sense in a fitness surface with so many catastrophe folds laying about?  For starters, it used to be that the Arctic was completely ice covered all year, and now you have blue water at the continental edges every summer.  The entire climate must have changed suddenly with the first year that happened.  There are many more catastrophes waiting to happen...although I suspect that the falling of the Atlantic into the Arctic basin happened at the end of 2015 -- and that was the big one.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #164 on: May 12, 2018, 10:22:40 PM »
This morning i was thinking about these negative feedbacks. And maybe the numbers are telling that's the case. If you look at that volume pic, since 2010 we stayed somewhere at that low volume. And the only year we had a significant winter temperature below average was 2013. And you had a little higher volume in 2014. But all the years the temperature in spring was at or below average for some time. And this spring we have'nt been below the average  so far. If the winter and spring become warmer in this little timespan. Than probably negative feedbacks are in play.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2041
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #165 on: May 12, 2018, 10:52:17 PM »
30% of sea ice volume loss between 1985 and 2012 has been preserved by artificial cooling provided by SO2 (air pollution).  The entire balance of remaining September sea ice volume is dependent on how much of this air pollution is emitted in the Northern Hemisphere.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg140828.html#msg140828
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #166 on: May 12, 2018, 11:24:24 PM »
Interesting proposition, but can you explain to me how any sort of poly fit would make sense in a fitness surface with so many catastrophe folds laying about?  For starters, it used to be that the Arctic was completely ice covered all year, and now you have blue water at the continental edges every summer.  The entire climate must have changed suddenly with the first year that happened.  There are many more catastrophes waiting to happen...although I suspect that the falling of the Atlantic into the Arctic basin happened at the end of 2015 -- and that was the big one.
[/quote]

Poly fits of course don't describe any physical process. They just show possible trends in the yearly final results, which are the outcome of many different (feedback) processes.  And there are many unknowns at play.
What i find interesting  is that in recent years the shape of the graph is slowly morphing, showing more and more a dent in september/october where the montly numbers used to be in a smooth, straight line in the 80's, 90's and even 00's.
This might suggest that some sort of regime change is taking place and certain effects are becoming more dominant than they used to be. Or new processes are getting started. Maybe that's because of the appearance of blue water at the continental edges as you mentioned.
Anyway, for now it seems to imply that volume in september could decline even more rapidly in years to come.

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #167 on: May 13, 2018, 03:18:29 AM »
Poly fits of course don't describe any physical process. They just show possible trends in the yearly final results, which are the outcome of many different (feedback) processes.  And there are many unknowns at play.
What i find interesting  is that in recent years the shape of the graph is slowly morphing, showing more and more a dent in september/october where the montly numbers used to be in a smooth, straight line in the 80's, 90's and even 00's.
I don't quite follow.  Please clarify.
This might suggest that some sort of regime change is taking place and certain effects are becoming more dominant than they used to be. Or new processes are getting started. Maybe that's because of the appearance of blue water at the continental edges as you mentioned.
Anyway, for now it seems to imply that volume in september could decline even more rapidly in years to come.
I'd be inclined to see it as a cascade of regime changes, and I am expecting at some point the ice will simply all melt without regard to time of year, but I haven't found a good hook for predicting when.  I always predict "this year" on the theory that I will eventually be right.


jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2041
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #168 on: May 13, 2018, 06:31:08 AM »
if China passes a clean air act similar to those enacted in the U.S. and Europe in the late 1970's we will see effective zero sea ice within 2 years.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/cuts-in-europes-air-pollution-have-boosted-arctic-warming

Cuts in Europe’s air pollution have boosted Arctic warming by 0.5C


Quote
Now a new study, published in Nature Geoscience, suggests that a reduction in air pollution over Europe has also been contributing to rapid Arctic warming in recent decades.

The study looks specifically at sulphur dioxide, which is emitted from power stations, vehicle exhausts and industrial processes, such as extracting metals from ore.

Sulphur dioxide reacts in the atmosphere to form tiny particles called sulphate aerosols. These have a cooling effect by scattering sunlight and stimulating clouds to form, preventing sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.

Sulphur emissions in Europe peaked in the 1970s and have declined to around a quarter of that level as governments have tackled air pollution. This decline has meant a reduction of the aerosol cooling effect, the researchers say, magnifying Arctic warming by 0.5C since 1980.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

kaixo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #169 on: May 13, 2018, 02:43:51 PM »
Poly fits of course don't describe any physical process. They just show possible trends in the yearly final results, which are the outcome of many different (feedback) processes.  And there are many unknowns at play.
What i find interesting  is that in recent years the shape of the graph is slowly morphing, showing more and more a dent in september/october where the montly numbers used to be in a smooth, straight line in the 80's, 90's and even 00's.
I don't quite follow.  Please clarify.
This might suggest that some sort of regime change is taking place and certain effects are becoming more dominant than they used to be. Or new processes are getting started. Maybe that's because of the appearance of blue water at the continental edges as you mentioned.
Anyway, for now it seems to imply that volume in september could decline even more rapidly in years to come.

I'd be inclined to see it as a cascade of regime changes, and I am expecting at some point the ice will simply all melt without regard to time of year, but I haven't found a good hook for predicting when.  I always predict "this year" on the theory that I will eventually be right.

In the arctic death spiral graph below i marked the recent 'dented' trend line, compared to the decades before. In the good old days volume declined over the summer months at a certain pace and from october on it increased again. All very smooth. Although volume losses have been accelerating over the years for all months, in august and september this acceleration is even accelerating. To me this suggests that new dynamics are coming in to play. 

I agree with you that one year it will suddenly all melt out and this could be in 2018 as well. I only voted for 2019-2021 to enhance my chances a bit. ;)
I am very curious what would happen after that. With no ice in the arctic basin, would ice growth have to start from the coasts or the few reigons where there is still some ice left? But i am getting of topic here i guess.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 03:37:10 PM by kaixo »

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 762
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 235
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #170 on: May 13, 2018, 10:23:45 PM »
Interesting proposition, but can you explain to me how any sort of poly fit would make sense in a fitness surface with so many catastrophe folds laying about?  For starters, it used to be that the Arctic was completely ice covered all year, and now you have blue water at the continental edges every summer.  The entire climate must have changed suddenly with the first year that happened.  There are many more catastrophes waiting to happen...although I suspect that the falling of the Atlantic into the Arctic basin happened at the end of 2015 -- and that was the big one.
Poly fits of course don't describe any physical process. They just show possible trends in the yearly final results, which are the outcome of many different (feedback) processes.  And there are many unknowns at play.
What i find interesting  is that in recent years the shape of the graph is slowly morphing, showing more and more a dent in september/october where the montly numbers used to be in a smooth, straight line in the 80's, 90's and even 00's.
This might suggest that some sort of regime change is taking place and certain effects are becoming more dominant than they used to be. Or new processes are getting started. Maybe that's because of the appearance of blue water at the continental edges as you mentioned.
Anyway, for now it seems to imply that volume in september could decline even more rapidly in years to come.

When I treat all the monthly data from 1979 to present I also calculate the average extent, volume and thickness for every month of the year. Then I subtract the actual values from the "expected" (=averaged) values. The difference is then plotted from 1979 to present. From almost exactly 2007 on the negative deviation is very obvious in the months from August to December, whereas the months February to May show very little deviations from the expected values. It seems a kind of "delay" kicking in, a not very progressive start of melting in spring and a delayed re-freezing in late autumn, often combined with very high temp. anomalies (e.g. Oct-Dec 2016 with very high anomalies).

Explanation to the graph:
The thick blue curve is the sum of deviations (extent, volume and thickness) from the long-term average.
The thin blue line is the linear trend
The red line gives mean values for every five years of the deviations.
The y-axis is the normalized sum of the deviation.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 10:40:10 PM by Stephan »
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #171 on: May 14, 2018, 12:07:24 AM »
From almost exactly 2007 on the negative deviation is very obvious in the months from August to December, whereas the months February to May show very little deviations from the expected values. It seems a kind of "delay" kicking in, a not very progressive start of melting in spring and a delayed re-freezing in late autumn, often combined with very high temp. anomalies (e.g. Oct-Dec 2016 with very high anomalies).

I'm a bit unclear on your exact formulation, but I will agree that we have Warmer Winters but either unchanged or colder Summers -- or rather, that the climate in the Arctic is changing from Desert to Maritime.

I'm always expecting "this year" to be the end of the transition, but I won't know until it has actually already happened when it will do it.

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 314
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #172 on: May 14, 2018, 07:15:55 AM »
So, I know that this is pure blue sky speculation, but when I look at the death spiral graph upthread, it looks to me like a bubble about to burst....But also a bit like a blastocyst about to form a gut. Either way we are definitely seeing something new.

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 749
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #173 on: May 14, 2018, 05:19:06 PM »
snippage
When I treat all the monthly data from 1979 to present I also calculate the average extent, volume and thickness for every month of the year. Then I subtract the actual values from the "expected" (=averaged) values. The difference is then plotted from 1979 to present.
more snippage
Interesting chart. Why is it so flat in the middle? Is it something to do with the way you calculate your monthly average?

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #174 on: May 14, 2018, 06:30:55 PM »
snippage
When I treat all the monthly data from 1979 to present I also calculate the average extent, volume and thickness for every month of the year. Then I subtract the actual values from the "expected" (=averaged) values. The difference is then plotted from 1979 to present.
more snippage
Interesting chart. Why is it so flat in the middle? Is it something to do with the way you calculate your monthly average?

It looks spiky upwards early then flat, then spiky downwards. Perhaps another piece of evidence for a 70 year cycle affecting the seasonal melt pattern.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 762
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 235
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #175 on: May 14, 2018, 08:48:16 PM »
snippage
When I treat all the monthly data from 1979 to present I also calculate the average extent, volume and thickness for every month of the year. Then I subtract the actual values from the "expected" (=averaged) values. The difference is then plotted from 1979 to present.
more snippage
Interesting chart. Why is it so flat in the middle? Is it something to do with the way you calculate your monthly average?

The way this plot looks may come from the way I treated the data. I calculated the mean values of extent, volume and thickness (the latter one by division of volume and extent) over the whole period of now 39 years. Assuming the times around 2000-2005 represent quite the average of all these years the difference between the anomalies and the individual values are quite small. In the early years thickness and volume are much higher than average in summer/autumn - therefore the curve gives the positive bumps. In the last ten years the opposite is the case. As thickness plays a major role (both through volume and the thickness itself) the rapid decline of it, especially in late summer and autumn leads to the negative bumps in the curve. I think this shows the change that has reached arctic ice from 2007 on. Interestingly the shape of the curve has not changed since 2010, therefore I do not see an actual change of the behaviour of the arctic ice and - this is of course pure speculation - no reason for an abrupt decline in sea ice in the next years.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #176 on: May 16, 2018, 01:42:36 AM »
... artificial cooling provided by SO2 (air pollution)...
It's a bit more complicated than that.  Sulfate emissions reduce insolation and preserve the ice, but black carbon deposition reduces the albedo of the ice and has the opposite effect.  So to some extent the two forms of air pollution are working at cross purposes in the Arctic.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2041
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #177 on: May 16, 2018, 07:46:56 AM »
the effect of SO2 is 2-4C so I just say 3C of additional warming locked in.

the effect of black carbon is much much less than that.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

VaughnAn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #178 on: May 16, 2018, 08:56:33 AM »
I asked the following question on April 12 the April 2018 blog:

"How much do sulfates and aerosols affect temperature? I am thinking that incoming sunlight is reflected back into space by these substances before it reaches low altitudes thereby preventing some warming. Just how much effect they have is what I am not sure about."

A response from Al Roger on April 14:
"And mentioned up-thread, the SO2 emissions are very short-lived so drops in their negative forcing would quickly contribute a significant boost to AGW were they cut in a hurry. However, the cutting will not be immediate and so any significant boost could theoretically be mitigated by cuts in N2O or CH4 forcing as well as the more slowly falling CO2 forcing (when emissions are cut enough for that to begin)."

So it sounds a lot more complicated than "the effect of SO2 is 2-4C so I just say 3C of additional warming locked in."

So I am still trying to wrap my brain around this issue and understand it better.  Looking at worldwide air quality for the past several years http://aqicn.org/map/world/ it appears China has significantly reduced air pollution and as a result has reduced aerosols and sulfur dioxide.  It is spring so China's air is cleaner than during the winter but air pollution levels are down significantly during all the seasons as best I can tell.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2041
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #179 on: May 16, 2018, 05:04:39 PM »
I asked the following question on April 12 the April 2018 blog:

"How much do sulfates and aerosols affect temperature? I am thinking that incoming sunlight is reflected back into space by these substances before it reaches low altitudes thereby preventing some warming. Just how much effect they have is what I am not sure about."

A response from Al Roger on April 14:
"And mentioned up-thread, the SO2 emissions are very short-lived so drops in their negative forcing would quickly contribute a significant boost to AGW were they cut in a hurry. However, the cutting will not be immediate and so any significant boost could theoretically be mitigated by cuts in N2O or CH4 forcing as well as the more slowly falling CO2 forcing (when emissions are cut enough for that to begin)."

So it sounds a lot more complicated than "the effect of SO2 is 2-4C so I just say 3C of additional warming locked in."

So I am still trying to wrap my brain around this issue and understand it better.  Looking at worldwide air quality for the past several years http://aqicn.org/map/world/ it appears China has significantly reduced air pollution and as a result has reduced aerosols and sulfur dioxide.  It is spring so China's air is cleaner than during the winter but air pollution levels are down significantly during all the seasons as best I can tell.

Response in the appropriate thread here:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?board=25.0
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

litesong

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #180 on: May 17, 2018, 02:44:16 AM »
I've edited the poll, so people can change their vote if they want.
Thank you.

litesong

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« Reply #181 on: May 18, 2018, 02:16:08 AM »
I've edited the poll, so people can change their vote if they want.
Thank you.
Ah, haaaa....... Yeah, I changed my vote. But, someone else negated my vote, by jumping to another time period. Ain't it funny that democracy goes in directions ya just don' know 'bout. Others have been arranging the chairs on the sinking ship, also.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 06:54:25 AM by litesong »