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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2350 on: May 25, 2016, 04:18:00 AM »
ASLR. Yes. It was sloppy, bad wording on my part and also a sloppy correlation attempt. I wrote "After El Nino" = transition between El Nino to La Nina, which also tends to be shorter than the transition between La Nina and El Nino. Presently it has been a rather slow transition. If it continues and stays in neutral, it might indicate that the demise of the ice will slow down a bit from now on.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2351 on: May 25, 2016, 05:22:21 AM »
IJIS:

10,792,665 km2(May 24, 2016)
Have a ice day!

werther

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2352 on: May 25, 2016, 06:18:24 AM »
That's an unexpected large dip (unexpected by me, to be exact)!

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2353 on: May 25, 2016, 06:23:33 AM »
IJIS:

10,792,665 km2(May 24, 2016)



10,880,319 yesterday, fall of 87,654.

Sourabh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2354 on: May 25, 2016, 06:24:50 AM »
I was expecting that based on Wipneus's shadow data on NSIDC ice extent. NSIDC extent figure decreased by century yesterday. I do not know if there is a direct correlation between NSIDC and IJIS. 

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2355 on: May 25, 2016, 10:08:08 AM »
I was expecting that based on Wipneus's shadow data on NSIDC ice extent. NSIDC extent figure decreased by century yesterday. I do not know if there is a direct correlation between NSIDC and IJIS.
They don't seem to be exactly in synch but still tell the same story by and large!
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2356 on: May 25, 2016, 10:10:37 AM »
IJIS:

10,792,665 km2(May 24, 2016)



10,880,319 yesterday, fall of 87,654.
Looks like the countdown has begun. :o
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2357 on: May 25, 2016, 10:13:22 AM »
I will give you the ESS, yes, in most years it is not an "easy" melter.  The Hudson certainly is though and the implication in the original post was that there is nowhere for continued fast drops to occur in.
I would be guessing the heat is busily melting volume and not showing up in the figures for area and extent!

Government departments around the world are expecting a calamity for multi year sea ice this year ... Serious water cooler discussion abounds!!

...or so a little birdy told me anyhow  ::)
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2358 on: May 25, 2016, 11:00:44 AM »
I didnt expect that big drop either.

I look at that pink arctic graph Uni Bremen I think and today it has yellows over The North Pole itself!!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2359 on: May 25, 2016, 12:09:39 PM »
Casual prediction: looks like we may well go below 10.5 million before the end of May. Lots of insolation potential there.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2360 on: May 25, 2016, 01:32:59 PM »
We're running a few weeks ahead of 2012.  I expect that the "plunge" has started....and I expect 2016 to "parallel" 2012....and will SLOWLY pull away FURTHER (ie MORE MELT) from 2012 over time....especially in late July and August giving us a 2 - 2.5 mill bottom by September.

 
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2361 on: May 25, 2016, 02:38:37 PM »
Im still stickn to 2.7m  ;)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2362 on: May 25, 2016, 04:58:02 PM »
ASLR. Yes. It was sloppy, bad wording on my part and also a sloppy correlation attempt. I wrote "After El Nino" = transition between El Nino to La Nina, which also tends to be shorter than the transition between La Nina and El Nino. Presently it has been a rather slow transition. If it continues and stays in neutral, it might indicate that the demise of the ice will slow down a bit from now on.

Sleepy,

While of course you might be correct; nevertheless, per BFTV's post today in the "2016 Melt Season" thread:

"The way the ECM builds a strong -ve NAO into the start of June, pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA is eerily similar to early June 2012.

The 8-10 height anomaly map shows a strong signal for high pressure over Greenland in early June."

This is exactly what Scribbler was talking about due to a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina: "pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA ... high pressure over Greenland in early June".

That is all that I am saying.

Very Best,
ASLR

Edit: You posted the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 projection issued May 22 2016, in the El Nino thread, and it supports the idea that there may well be a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions from late May to early June 2016.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 06:23:55 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2363 on: May 25, 2016, 05:25:05 PM »
This doesn't look good....  I think the fort is surrounded :o  The June/July plunge has started early....and it's going to get ugly.


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2364 on: May 26, 2016, 05:22:08 AM »
IJIS:

10,704,953 km2(May 25, 2016)
Have a ice day!

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2365 on: May 26, 2016, 05:53:51 AM »
IJIS:

10,704,953 km2(May 25, 2016)

The recent dive (-88K) is significant because we are closing in on 10.5M which was previously reached first on 6/11 in 2012.

That means we only have 200K (or 2-3 days of losses in all probability) before we are two weeks ahead of the next-worst year instead of only a few days, as 2015 levels off shortly.

With all the heat progged for the Arctic through D10.... things are looking very bleak.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2366 on: May 26, 2016, 06:01:28 AM »
ASLR. Yes. It was sloppy, bad wording on my part and also a sloppy correlation attempt. I wrote "After El Nino" = transition between El Nino to La Nina, which also tends to be shorter than the transition between La Nina and El Nino. Presently it has been a rather slow transition. If it continues and stays in neutral, it might indicate that the demise of the ice will slow down a bit from now on.

Sleepy,

While of course you might be correct; nevertheless, per BFTV's post today in the "2016 Melt Season" thread:

"The way the ECM builds a strong -ve NAO into the start of June, pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA is eerily similar to early June 2012.

The 8-10 height anomaly map shows a strong signal for high pressure over Greenland in early June."

This is exactly what Scribbler was talking about due to a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina: "pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA ... high pressure over Greenland in early June".

That is all that I am saying.

Very Best,
ASLR

Edit: You posted the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 projection issued May 22 2016, in the El Nino thread, and it supports the idea that there may well be a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions from late May to early June 2016.

Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.

But what I've been playing with for a long time now is the slower than expected decline of this El Nino, as you might know from the present El Nino thread. And as for my post there, my point was really what I wrote in my post before that graph:
Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
And speaking about following forecasts, the previous forecast from POAMA (Nino34 attached to be consistent) showed a more bullish transition into La Nina than their last, so the pattern is still there. The transition is still slower than expected. The same trend can be observed in the nino plumes from ECMWF. We still might end up with a transition like after the 91-92 El Nino. And then the ice up there might just resist another year, dispite todays numbers presented by Espen above.
How it will end, is inevitable though. :(
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 06:13:46 AM by Sleepy »

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2367 on: May 26, 2016, 08:15:11 AM »
ASLR. Yes. It was sloppy, bad wording on my part and also a sloppy correlation attempt. I wrote "After El Nino" = transition between El Nino to La Nina, which also tends to be shorter than the transition between La Nina and El Nino. Presently it has been a rather slow transition. If it continues and stays in neutral, it might indicate that the demise of the ice will slow down a bit from now on.

Sleepy,

While of course you might be correct; nevertheless, per BFTV's post today in the "2016 Melt Season" thread:

"The way the ECM builds a strong -ve NAO into the start of June, pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA is eerily similar to early June 2012.

The 8-10 height anomaly map shows a strong signal for high pressure over Greenland in early June."

This is exactly what Scribbler was talking about due to a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina: "pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA ... high pressure over Greenland in early June".

That is all that I am saying.

Very Best,
ASLR

Edit: You posted the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 projection issued May 22 2016, in the El Nino thread, and it supports the idea that there may well be a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions from late May to early June 2016.

Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.

But what I've been playing with for a long time now is the slower than expected decline of this El Nino, as you might know from the present El Nino thread. And as for my post there, my point was really what I wrote in my post before that graph:
Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
And speaking about following forecasts, the previous forecast from POAMA (Nino34 attached to be consistent) showed a more bullish transition into La Nina than their last, so the pattern is still there. The transition is still slower than expected. The same trend can be observed in the nino plumes from ECMWF. We still might end up with a transition like after the 91-92 El Nino. And then the ice up there might just resist another year, dispite todays numbers presented by Espen above.
How it will end, is inevitable though. :(
Ha, I might have to sleep on that graphic: looks cool but!
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2368 on: May 26, 2016, 08:20:09 AM »
..
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A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2369 on: May 26, 2016, 08:26:50 AM »
abbottisgone, try to sleep on what the models produced before we entered the spring barrier regarding ENSO. If you haven't seen those take a look at ASLRs previous link to robert scribbler in this thread and also read that last part.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2370 on: May 26, 2016, 08:33:55 AM »
abbottisgone, try to sleep on what the models produced before we entered the spring barrier regarding ENSO. If you haven't seen those take a look at ASLRs previous link to robert scribbler in this thread and also read that last part.
Alright, I will- atleast try... I don't really know what people mean by the modelling.

I like to pretend I know stuff but, alas, I just end up listening to ACDC and other life things happen...!

But, yeh, I will have a look at some of those things!! Cheers!!!
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Andreas T

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2371 on: May 26, 2016, 09:07:21 AM »
One other thing: When quoting someone else, try to cut away all the text that isn't pertinent to your answer. When people keep quoting each other, you get these huge, off-putting comments, substantially shortening the life span of scroll wheels.

You can do that on other threads if you like, but not here.
another thing which shortens the life of scroll wheels are comments which contain more blurb than text and are filling up the thread between the information which is posted here with personal comment which tells me very little of interest.
Please consider whether readers of this forum would benefit from your comment before posting.

Eli81

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2372 on: May 26, 2016, 09:41:48 AM »
I realize I'm a newbie here so I apologize in advance for barging in and scolding more established members. But I have been frequenting forums for 2 decades now, and have moderated on some of the largest on the internet.

In addition to considering whether readers of the forum would benefit from your comment before posting, I would also like to point out that posting multiple times in a row is generally against forum etiquette. If you have something additional to add and your post is still the last in a thread, edit your post. If you have multiple people to reply to, do it in a single post.

IMO, this is a bigger problem than long quotes, and it very well may make the natural chatter more tolerable - less noticeable. And scroll wheels around the world will thank you regardless. :)

PS: Abbott lives on. \m/
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 09:52:23 AM by Eli81 »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2373 on: May 26, 2016, 10:06:39 AM »
Yes, as with the melting season thread, the same applies here:

Try to minimize your comment to IJIS/JAXA-related stuff.
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2374 on: May 26, 2016, 03:19:20 PM »
I realize I'm a newbie here so I apologize in advance for barging in and scolding more established members. But I have been frequenting forums for 2 decades now, and have moderated on some of the largest on the internet.

In addition to considering whether readers of the forum would benefit from your comment before posting, I would also like to point out that posting multiple times in a row is generally against forum etiquette. If you have something additional to add and your post is still the last in a thread, edit your post. If you have multiple people to reply to, do it in a single post.

IMO, this is a bigger problem than long quotes, and it very well may make the natural chatter more tolerable - less noticeable. And scroll wheels around the world will thank you regardless. :)

PS: Abbott lives on. \m/

you're obviously not alone, the truth should always be welcome and not be subject to reputation and titles :-)

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.msg0/topicseen.html#new

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2375 on: May 27, 2016, 03:53:26 AM »
Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.

But what I've been playing with for a long time now is the slower than expected decline of this El Nino, as you might know from the present El Nino thread. And as for my post there, my point was really what I wrote in my post before that graph:
Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
And speaking about following forecasts, the previous forecast from POAMA (Nino34 attached to be consistent) showed a more bullish transition into La Nina than their last, so the pattern is still there. The transition is still slower than expected. The same trend can be observed in the nino plumes from ECMWF. We still might end up with a transition like after the 91-92 El Nino. And then the ice up there might just resist another year, dispite todays numbers presented by Espen above.
How it will end, is inevitable though. :(

Sleepy,

It is always a pleasure to read your logic; which I do not necessarily disagree with.  All that I am really saying is that we are still in the Spring Barrier for projecting ENSO trends, so the POAMA Nino 3.4 projection is possible.  In a worse case scenario, the Nino 3.4 would drop below -0.5C until late July and then cyclones could push the warm Nino 4 temps back into the Eastern Eq. Pac. through the end of the year.  In such a worse case scenario warm air might advect northward into the Arctic Basin through late July; which might then set-up conditions for a GAC of 2016 by early August, and then as no La Nina would occur the GMST departures would be extra high because of the Arctic Amplification that it would speculatively receive on top of the residual heat from our recent Super El Nino.  While I do not know whether such a worse case scenario will actually happen, it does seem like a real possibility.

Very Best,
ASLR
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2376 on: May 27, 2016, 05:27:08 AM »
IJIS:

10,652,073 km2(May 26, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Rob Dekker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2377 on: May 27, 2016, 05:33:25 AM »
Thanks Espen,
We appear to be rather close to the extent amount where the next runner-up (2015) started to seriously slow down its decline.
I wonder if 2016 will follow suit.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2378 on: May 27, 2016, 06:00:51 AM »
Thanks Espen,
We appear to be rather close to the extent amount where the next runner-up (2015) started to seriously slow down its decline.
I wonder if 2016 will follow suit.

I expect the slowdown if it comes will not be at the same extent level. Main contributors of decline around this time should be Baffin, Kara, Hudson and Chukchi. In most of them 2016 is closely tracking 2015. 2016 has a lead in Beaufort and Barents and even in the CAB, so if the slowdown comes (in Hudson for example) it will probably be some few 100k below current extent.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2379 on: May 27, 2016, 06:31:31 AM »
Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.

But what I've been playing with for a long time now is the slower than expected decline of this El Nino, as you might know from the present El Nino thread. And as for my post there, my point was really what I wrote in my post before that graph:
Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
And speaking about following forecasts, the previous forecast from POAMA (Nino34 attached to be consistent) showed a more bullish transition into La Nina than their last, so the pattern is still there. The transition is still slower than expected. The same trend can be observed in the nino plumes from ECMWF. We still might end up with a transition like after the 91-92 El Nino. And then the ice up there might just resist another year, dispite todays numbers presented by Espen above.
How it will end, is inevitable though. :(

Sleepy,

It is always a pleasure to read your logic; which I do not necessarily disagree with.  All that I am really saying is that we are still in the Spring Barrier for projecting ENSO trends, so the POAMA Nino 3.4 projection is possible.  In a worse case scenario, the Nino 3.4 would drop below -0.5C until late July and then cyclones could push the warm Nino 4 temps back into the Eastern Eq. Pac. through the end of the year.  In such a worse case scenario warm air might advect northward into the Arctic Basin through late July; which might then set-up conditions for a GAC of 2016 by early August, and then as no La Nina would occur the GMST departures would be extra high because of the Arctic Amplification that it would speculatively receive on top of the residual heat from our recent Super El Nino.  While I do not know whether such a worse case scenario will actually happen, it does seem like a real possibility.

Very Best,
ASLR
Likewise ASLR, likewise. It's not only spring barrier but also during a transition so the model outputs should be handled with caution. The disturbing part is that there are only bad to worse scenarios to play with. We might very well have entered a new regime now, regarding global temperatures. Precipitation patterns have changed during this El Nino and we seem to have entered a new era of positive PDO anomalies.

The ice is so bad now and a storm is all that it takes, but right now I think we will see something similar like in 2015, as noted by rob and oren above.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2380 on: May 27, 2016, 06:45:46 AM »
2015 basically exhibits no June cliff..

Denier commentators are saying the El Niño effect has disappeared..

Methinks such people are just kidding themselves and setting us all up for a big big freak out !!


Saying that I'm obviously glad that IJIS only dropped 50k !
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2381 on: May 27, 2016, 07:27:03 AM »
The ice is so bad now and a storm is all that it takes, but right now I think we will see something similar like in 2015, as noted by rob and oren above.

Not so sure about that. That was why I was asking. Why do you think we will see something similar (major stall) like in 2015 ?
And a storm would be nice right now. It would sure reduce insolation into the major open water areas in the Arctic, and reduce the colossal albedo feedback at this time of the year.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2382 on: May 27, 2016, 07:34:05 AM »
Thanks Espen,
We appear to be rather close to the extent amount where the next runner-up (2015) started to seriously slow down its decline.
I wonder if 2016 will follow suit.
There are three reasons why this probably will not happen:
1.  DMI  80N+ graph shows May as much colder in 2015 than 2016 so there will  be more warmth in the ocean this year.
2.  2015 was only leading the pack in extent decline last year, area was only third or fourth lowest. This meant the ice was more compact and there was less capacity for albedo feedback. 2016 is well ahead on both area and extent.
3. 2016 has relatively more thin ice compared to 2015 as shown in the graph below so there is more ice ready to melt out now than in 2015.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2383 on: May 27, 2016, 08:00:56 AM »
The ice is so bad now and a storm is all that it takes, but right now I think we will see something similar like in 2015, as noted by rob and oren above.

Not so sure about that. That was why I was asking. Why do you think we will see something similar (major stall) like in 2015 ?
And a storm would be nice right now. It would sure reduce insolation into the major open water areas in the Arctic, and reduce the colossal albedo feedback at this time of the year.
The first part referred to what ASLR wrote about a GAC later on.
The second part and right now, mainly because temperatures has dropped down to 1980-2010 median over the arctic, as can be seen at Andrew Slaters site.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/

Rob Dekker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2384 on: May 27, 2016, 08:40:17 AM »
Sleepy, I hope you are right about that stall similar to 2015, but I'm not convinced.

This is the first time in 2016 that Arctic temps touch the median. And they are still higher than they were in 2012 and 2015 at this date.

And even if that stall happens, 2016 has a lot of ground to make up.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2385 on: May 27, 2016, 08:47:14 AM »
Oh. Forgot to mention :
The temps that matter for ice melt (2m temps) are still going up according to Slater :
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html
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ktonine

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2386 on: May 27, 2016, 12:26:27 PM »
The second part and right now, mainly because temperatures has dropped down to 1980-2010 median over the arctic, as can be seen at Andrew Slaters site.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/

Arctic temperatures - especially DMI N80 - are of little use the further we move into the melting season.  10 days ago, in a comment over at Dosbat I wrote:
Quote
I think it reasonable to use DMI temperatures as a warmth indicator until at least day 100. After that it can be problematic. Obviously by day 140 or 150 it has become of little use. In other words, DMI temps for April and May need more than just a simple numerical comparison because they are losing strength as an indicator. There is a complex story being told between day 100 and day 150. The only part of the story that I can grasp yet is that there is usually a discontinuity (simply due to the physics of melting snow/ice) and it usually occurs around 260K on DMI.

Half of the area north of 80N is north of 83N.
80N starts seeing the sun on Day 54, 24 hours of sun on Day 105
83N starts seeing the sun on Day 61, 24 hours of sun on Day 97
90N starts seeing the sun on Day 79, 24 hours of sun on Day 79

Counterintuitively, the most northern half of the area north of 80N sees 24 hours of sun in its entirety earlier than the southern half. This especially confounds any attempt at linearizing the effects because the northern half should start with lower temperatures, thicker ice, and is unlikely to melt early despite seeing 24 hours of sun earlier. Yes, I should be working with insolation rather than sunrise/sunset -- but I'm too lazy to use a spreadsheet, I do that all day at work.

Naively, we know there's an approximate 3 week delay between the solstice and the mid-point of peak warmth in DMI N80 temperatures. With the southern half of the area north of 80N seeing 24 hours of sun on day 105, I'd (naively) expect to see the discontinuity around Day 125.

I haven't considered the difference in Slater's area coverage versus DMI N80, but the same process has to occur -- though the day numbers are  going to be slightly different.  So I think what you are seeing on Slater's temperature graph is not so much a "drop" in temperature, but the seasonal change that occurs when a sufficient amount of ice is undergoing its phase change.   

A quick glance at recent years of Slater 925hPa temps shows this discontinuity usually in the 1st week of May.

Magma.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2387 on: May 27, 2016, 02:26:09 PM »
At least for me, the year to year differences in maximum and minimum extent as well as the short-term variations make it harder to see the yearly and decadal patterns of ice melt and growth.

As a simplistic exercise I've normalized four decades of extent data (1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2006-2015) with 0 being the minimum extent and 1 being the maximum. There are a few interesting trends that emerge, likely due to more rapid melting of southern ice that was present in the 1980s and 1990s but is increasingly not formed over the fall and winter. (Hopefully I've attached the plot correctly.)

The minimum extent for 2016 won't be reached until nearly four months from now (and will be ultimately determined by a number of unpredictable weather-related factors) but for what it's worth a reasonable fit to the normalized melting trend of the last decade is obtained by using a 2016 minimum extent of 2 000 000 km2.

AbruptSLR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2388 on: May 27, 2016, 05:15:35 PM »
Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.

Sleepy,

With a hat tip to Neven, I provide the first attached image of the CCI Reanalyzer Artic 2m SAT forecast issued today for June 3 2016.  This image shows the warm air reaching the Arctic Basin via Canada (& Russia) that BFTV was referring to, and which I am possibly linking to the increasingly cool Equatorial Waters in the Pacific shown in the second attached image per Nullschool SSTA & Ocean Currents for May 25 2016.

Very Best,
ASLR
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2389 on: May 28, 2016, 05:22:54 AM »
IJIS:

10,631,176 km2(May 27, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Sourabh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2390 on: May 28, 2016, 05:29:19 AM »
Thanks Espen for removing lines for all other years. This graph makes comparison much easier to see.

Looks like some slow down has begun. Lets if if it is harbinger of "calm before the storm" or signal of "after a storm comes calm".

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2391 on: May 28, 2016, 05:36:24 AM »
Thanks Espen for removing lines for all other years. This graph makes comparison much easier to see.

Looks like some slow down has begun. Lets if if it is harbinger of "calm before the storm" or signal of "after a storm comes calm".

I bet that it is "calm before the storm", at least for the next seven days.
You can see the last Neven's post:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/asi-2016-update-1-both-sides.html#more
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2392 on: May 28, 2016, 05:38:49 AM »
Thanks for all the comments above! I spent a couple of hours this morning updating myself and I hear you. Not even ECMWF gives much hope.

Only -20897 today (yesterday) but if reality follows those forecasts for next week, it won't be much of a plateau. :(

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2393 on: May 28, 2016, 06:14:22 AM »
So, what is meant by "the June cliff" is the edging toward "the July plunge" !?!
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Eli81

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2394 on: May 28, 2016, 07:29:40 AM »
Lowest drop since 5/3. Brings the month to date average daily loss down to 61,565km2.



pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2395 on: May 28, 2016, 07:48:12 AM »
Lets not get too carried away. We are still over a week ahead of 2012 and it went "up"  before the cliff. Our cliffs on the way according to Neven. Hopefully fog will miraculously dampen down the drops. Were only 131k from 10.5m so thats quite astounding for only May

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2396 on: May 28, 2016, 10:26:19 AM »
Just run the CCI Arctic Hi-Res for the next week
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxmaps/#ARC-LEA

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2397 on: May 28, 2016, 10:33:03 AM »
Lowest drop since 5/3. Brings the month to date average daily loss down to 61,565km2.

Given this low drop, I wouldn't be surprised to see a century break in the next few days.
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2398 on: May 28, 2016, 10:52:28 AM »
Lowest drop since 5/3. Brings the month to date average daily loss down to 61,565km2.

Given this low drop, I wouldn't be surprised to see a century break in the next few days.
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Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2399 on: May 28, 2016, 12:53:07 PM »
June cliff refers to the period of steeper decline in area (many times also extent) numbers that has happened on most years since 2007. This has begun first or second week of June and has been interpreted to be a result of extensive meltpools on top of ice. Thus this would be indicative of ice surface weather to be over melting point. Later in June or early July these pools drain to the ocean giving an impression of slowed melt. By this time the ice melts from bottom too, so overall drops of ice area still continue. Likely there are some refinenements to be made to this simple explanation but some more experienced could confirm the above, did I leave some essential part out?

Of the July plunge I'm not too sure. It maybe just refers to overall bad weather and marine state for ice preservation and be used after steep July drops. Possibly it's associated only with the record years or near so.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2016, 01:58:30 PM by Pmt111500 »