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Wipneus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2450 on: June 01, 2016, 07:43:53 AM »
From twitter:

[EDIT: nothing new in the graph yet]
« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 08:41:09 AM by Wipneus »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2451 on: June 01, 2016, 08:14:39 AM »
Wipneus, that one looks like the same on IJIS and it's only updated to May 27.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2452 on: June 01, 2016, 08:40:38 AM »
Wipneus, that one looks like the same on IJIS and it's only updated to May 27.

I would have thought that after a happy tweet, "we are glad to be back online", and an announcement that May ends at record low, the image would reflect that.
It seems not.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2453 on: June 01, 2016, 09:05:11 AM »
Wipneus, that one looks like the same on IJIS and it's only updated to May 27.

I would have thought that after a happy tweet, "we are glad to be back online", and an announcement that May ends at record low, the image would reflect that.
It seems not.
The latest data only goes to 27 May so not everything is working as expected yet. We may  have to  wait until tomorrow for the latest  data.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2454 on: June 01, 2016, 11:56:03 AM »
I've consulted the great Google with many different queries, only to find that there appear to be no independent mirrors of the data anywhere on the vast intarwebs. A scary prospect indeed.

What were you searching for then?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=jaxa+arctic+sea+ice+extent

reveals both mine and Neven's on the first page.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2455 on: June 01, 2016, 02:21:26 PM »
I've consulted the great Google with many different queries, only to find that there appear to be no independent mirrors of the data anywhere on the vast intarwebs. A scary prospect indeed.

What were you searching for then?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=jaxa+arctic+sea+ice+extent

I think Eli meant taking the data from the sat. and compiling it themselves as opposed to 'sharing' JAXA's image?

reveals both mine and Neven's on the first page.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2456 on: June 01, 2016, 02:39:00 PM »
I think Eli meant taking the data from the sat. and compiling it themselves as opposed to 'sharing' JAXA's image?

That's precisely what Wipneus does on a daily basis.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/

I also archive the results of his Raspberry Pi's hard labour.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2457 on: June 01, 2016, 03:22:18 PM »
In the thread "The 2016 melting season" post #1775 I wrote:

"In any case, as IJIS hasn't come up with their numbers but Uni Bremen graph shows a fairly constant melt rate before the outage and I think we could get a good approximation by extrapolating the 4 missing days with the melt rate for the 4 days of May 24-27. If I do that I get a SIE of roughly 10,47 Mn km2 for May  31. Let's see what IJIS come up with later!!!"

I think that is a good approximation for the SIE number per May 31.

Best case scenario:
The record low per June 30 from 2010 is 8,885,384 km2. One of the lousiest June months since 2003 is 2004 which saw a loss of about 1,3 Mn km2. Such a lousy month would take us down to 9,2 Mn km2 per June 30. On a second place we find June 2015 which managed to lose about 1,4 Mn km2. So, all in all, roughly speaking there should be about 90% chance that we'll we lowest on record by June 30 given the loss in SIE for the years 2003-2015.

Worst case scenario
In 2012 a massive 2,4 Mn km2 sea ice melted away in June and 2010 saw a loss of 2,3 Mn km2. In a worst case scenario we should be at 8,0-8,1 Mn km2 by June 30.

Prediction Interval for June 30:
To summarize, the SIE numbers per IJIS by June 30 should be anywhere between 8,0-9,2 Mn km2.

Best, LMV

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2458 on: June 01, 2016, 04:07:18 PM »
Best case scenario:
The record low per June 30 from 2010 is 8,885,384 km2. One of the lousiest June months since 2003 is 2004 which saw a loss of about 1,3 Mn km2. Such a lousy month would take us down to 9,2 Mn km2 per June 30. On a second place we find June 2015 which managed to lose about 1,4 Mn km2. So, all in all, roughly speaking there should be about 90% chance that we'll we lowest on record by June 30 given the loss in SIE for the years 2003-2015.

Worst case scenario
In 2012 a massive 2,4 Mn km2 sea ice melted away in June and 2010 saw a loss of 2,3 Mn km2. In a worst case scenario we should be at 8,0-8,1 Mn km2 by June 30.

Prediction Interval for June 30:
To summarize, the SIE numbers per IJIS by June 30 should be anywhere between 8,0-9,2 Mn km2.

Keep in mind that, while the first part of June 2012 saw that remarkably rapid decrease, the melting rate decreased substantially over the second half of the month.

So, my own guess for end-of-the-month isn't quite as rosy as yours: a range of 7.9M - 9.0M km2, with a most-likely number of 8.45M (or 400k lower than the current recordholder, 2010).

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2459 on: June 02, 2016, 01:25:18 AM »
IJIS is back up. But only till May 27th. Looks like they need to play catch-up.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2460 on: June 02, 2016, 01:45:26 AM »
What were you searching for then?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=jaxa+arctic+sea+ice+extent

reveals both mine and Neven's on the first page.


I think Eli meant taking the data from the sat. and compiling it themselves as opposed to 'sharing' JAXA's image?

Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm obviously aware of your and Neven's sites and visit them quite regularly. :) But the data wouldn't be considered independent, I don't think? I was also talking about raw numbers. The graphs are great, but it's hard to extract exact numbers from them.

I'm also aware of and follow Wipneus' updates, but I guess I'm foggy on how they compare to the numbers here, or how they should be compared?  :-[

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2461 on: June 02, 2016, 05:22:59 AM »
IJIS:

10,405,086 km2(June 1, 2016)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2462 on: June 02, 2016, 05:26:05 AM »
Espen's awake early. ;)

05/28 10577431 drop 53745
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« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 05:32:37 AM by Sleepy »

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2463 on: June 02, 2016, 06:15:43 AM »
Best case scenario:
The record low per June 30 from 2010 is 8,885,384 km2. One of the lousiest June months since 2003 is 2004 which saw a loss of about 1,3 Mn km2. Such a lousy month would take us down to 9,2 Mn km2 per June 30. On a second place we find June 2015 which managed to lose about 1,4 Mn km2. So, all in all, roughly speaking there should be about 90% chance that we'll we lowest on record by June 30 given the loss in SIE for the years 2003-2015.

Worst case scenario
In 2012 a massive 2,4 Mn km2 sea ice melted away in June and 2010 saw a loss of 2,3 Mn km2. In a worst case scenario we should be at 8,0-8,1 Mn km2 by June 30.

Prediction Interval for June 30:
To summarize, the SIE numbers per IJIS by June 30 should be anywhere between 8,0-9,2 Mn km2.

Keep in mind that, while the first part of June 2012 saw that remarkably rapid decrease, the melting rate decreased substantially over the second half of the month.

So, my own guess for end-of-the-month isn't quite as rosy as yours: a range of 7.9M - 9.0M km2, with a most-likely number of 8.45M (or 400k lower than the current recordholder, 2010).
You say the rapid melt in the June of 2012 included an initially very high melt rate: but did it ever get over 200 square ks a day,... Further, did it ever maintain such a phenomena over more than a 24 hour period?
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 06:22:52 AM by abbottisgone »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2464 on: June 02, 2016, 06:19:04 AM »
Espen's awake early. ;)

05/28 10577431 drop 53745
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I thought wipneus referred to a drop of 90k somewhere in the last few days,... Was he perhaps working off other figures?

(... I suppose the answer is yes now I think about it  ;D)
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2465 on: June 02, 2016, 07:38:26 AM »
My extrapolation of IJIS to 10,47 at May 31 was fairly good. Great tp see that IJIS is back on the road again! :)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2466 on: June 02, 2016, 07:46:48 AM »
My extrapolation of IJIS to 10,47 at May 31 was fairly good. Great tp see that IJIS is back on the road again! :)
Presumably you chose a mild, ~maybe plus 4 million km^2, number for post Ausgust minima?!!?

 ???
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2467 on: June 02, 2016, 08:31:38 AM »
My extrapolation of IJIS to 10,47 at May 31 was fairly good. Great tp see that IJIS is back on the road again! :)
Presumably you chose a mild, ~maybe plus 4 million km^2, number for post Ausgust minima?!!?

 ???

4 Million at this stage isn't a bad guess; in fact, it would make 2016 the 2nd lowest year on record.

Granted, the weather would need to cooperate for us to end up that high, but its far from out of play.

Ask me again in a month and I may have a different answer.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2468 on: June 02, 2016, 08:37:20 AM »

I thought wipneus referred to a drop of 90k somewhere in the last few days,... Was he perhaps working off other figures?

(... I suppose the answer is yes now I think about it  ;D)

The drop Wipneus was referring to was the drop from May 31 to June 1, as algorithms and land masks are changed for mid summer. This often means that false ice in peripheral regions gets removed from the count, resulting in a big single day drop. This mainly applies to the NSIDC based data, rather than the newer data with ADS.
It doesn't seem like the ADS extent figures does this, so there is no big drop into June.

2012 just saw a big drop in early June, as high pressure as warm temps took hold. From the 7th to the 13th, 2012 dropped almost 950k, or 136k/day.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2469 on: June 02, 2016, 09:36:19 AM »

I thought wipneus referred to a drop of 90k somewhere in the last few days,... Was he perhaps working off other figures?

(... I suppose the answer is yes now I think about it  ;D)

The drop Wipneus was referring to was the drop from May 31 to June 1, as algorithms and land masks are changed for mid summer. This often means that false ice in peripheral regions gets removed from the count, resulting in a big single day drop. This mainly applies to the NSIDC based data, rather than the newer data with ADS.
It doesn't seem like the ADS extent figures does this, so there is no big drop into June.

2012 just saw a big drop in early June, as high pressure as warm temps took hold. From the 7th to the 13th, 2012 dropped almost 950k, or 136k/day.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2470 on: June 02, 2016, 09:38:10 AM »
My extrapolation of IJIS to 10,47 at May 31 was fairly good. Great tp see that IJIS is back on the road again! :)
Presumably you chose a mild, ~maybe plus 4 million km^2, number for post Ausgust minima?!!?

 ???

4 Million at this stage isn't a bad guess; in fact, it would make 2016 the 2nd lowest year on record.

Granted, the weather would need to cooperate for us to end up that high, but its far from out of play.

Ask me again in a month and I may have a different answer.
I chose 4-4.25

I think Wipneus chose 3.5 to 3.75.

It sounds like you maybe around those marks??
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2471 on: June 02, 2016, 10:43:53 AM »
But the data wouldn't be considered independent, I don't think? I was also talking about raw numbers. The graphs are great, but it's hard to extract exact numbers from them.


How would you define "independent" then? Wipneus derives his own numbers from a variety of different satellite sensors/algorithms and compares/contrasts them. The "exact numbers" for 2 different algos operating on JAXA's AMSR2 data are available for download from:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data

If you'd like to try that for yourself instructions on how to go about it are available at:

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2472 on: June 02, 2016, 12:16:31 PM »
Quote
So, my own guess for end-of-the-month isn't quite as rosy as yours: a range of 7.9M - 9.0M km2, with a most-likely number of 8.45M (or 400k lower than the current recordholder, 2010).

I agree with you.  I estimate a value at June 30 at 8.2 - 8.6

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2473 on: June 02, 2016, 12:42:24 PM »
Quote
So, my own guess for end-of-the-month isn't quite as rosy as yours: a range of 7.9M - 9.0M km2, with a most-likely number of 8.45M (or 400k lower than the current recordholder, 2010).

I agree with you.  I estimate a value at June 30 at 8.2 - 8.6
My  estimate for July 1 based on analysis of the starting volumes is 8.1 Mkm^2.  My prediction for 1 June was 10.32 based on 5 day average so I'm  pretty happy considering its based on April PIOMAS and IJIS data.

Well not happy  exactly  :-\
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2474 on: June 02, 2016, 02:33:55 PM »
IJIS back hooray!

A lot higher than i thought. Still the north of siberia ice is being destroyed as we speak so its not going to plateau out any time soon. Late June n July will prob see warmer conditions in Southern Europe so Iceland n Greenland will not be stealing their high then...Does it mean widespread melting if low pressures start spinning up the Atlantic in July? You guys are all way more experts than me.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2475 on: June 02, 2016, 02:45:32 PM »
Just using a Mark 1 eyeball, if 2016 just follows the trajectory of the 2000's average from now on, by end of June it is still below 2012. If it keeps matching the 21st century average it will be neck-and-neck, maybe ahead of 2012 right through to August.

But it still needs to find that extra something to match the impact of the GAC in August. That extra kick is what made 2012 really stand-out.


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2476 on: June 02, 2016, 05:51:08 PM »
My extrapolation of IJIS to 10,47 at May 31 was fairly good. Great tp see that IJIS is back on the road again! :)
Presumably you chose a mild, ~maybe plus 4 million km^2, number for post Ausgust minima?!!?

 ???

4 Million at this stage isn't a bad guess; in fact, it would make 2016 the 2nd lowest year on record.

Granted, the weather would need to cooperate for us to end up that high, but its far from out of play.

Ask me again in a month and I may have a different answer.
I chose 4-4.25

I think Wipneus chose 3.5 to 3.75.

It sounds like you maybe around those marks??
I bet on the weather - 2.75-3.0

A bit of a stretch, but presuming melt conditions will take a trajectory similar to 2012's.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2477 on: June 03, 2016, 03:13:24 AM »
Edit Neven:

snip

Forum decorum:
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  • When quoting someone else, try to cut away all the text that isn't pertinent to your answer.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2016, 08:29:53 AM by Neven »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2478 on: June 03, 2016, 05:22:30 AM »
IJIS:

10,374,337 km2(June 2, 2016)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2479 on: June 03, 2016, 05:41:43 AM »
05/28 10577431 drop 53745
05/29 10524842 drop 52589
05/30 10480690 drop 44152
05/31 10427044 drop 53646
06/01 10405086 drop 21958
06/02 10374337 drop 30749

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2480 on: June 03, 2016, 01:48:17 PM »
Edit Neven:

snip

Forum decorum:
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Repeat: Consider whether readers of the forum would benefit from your comment before posting.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2481 on: June 04, 2016, 06:40:02 AM »
IJIS:

10,350,720 km2(June 3, 2016)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2482 on: June 04, 2016, 06:42:46 AM »
Repeat: Consider whether readers of the forum would benefit from your comment before posting.


+1

Hopefully in accordance with that suggestion, even though extent is rapidly approaching 2012 levels now, Andrew Slater's projection (conservative so far this year) for late July is still looking like some sort of launch pad for something close to if not actually a new record come September.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2483 on: June 04, 2016, 12:54:48 PM »
05/28 10577431 drop 53745
05/29 10524842 drop 52589
05/30 10480690 drop 44152
05/31 10427044 drop 53646
06/01 10405086 drop 21958
06/02 10374337 drop 30749
06/03 10350720 drop 23617

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2484 on: June 04, 2016, 01:47:04 PM »

even though extent is rapidly approaching 2012 levels now

sorry if i disagree, what caught my eyes in your post was the word "rapidly" which i know by heart is not true
and exaggerations are generally coming at the cost of credibility for readers who don't know whom to believe. the realists in this forum or the deniers in other places.

matter of factly the 2016 curve currently does not approach the 212 curve significantly ( very slowly if at all )

if 2016 does not plateau now for a short time like 2012 did the gap will even increase while at the moment in can be considered "stable"

this does not mean that in 1-2 days time that cannot change but it's not certain either, melt lays ahead this year as well, the ice is in bad condition and eventually could keep up ( more or less ) with 2012 even with less extreme conditions, simply due to the fact that it's easier for the ice to disappear than it was 2012 IMO.

have a look at the picture below, i made it as big and clear as possible

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2485 on: June 04, 2016, 04:06:38 PM »
I think a better way to put it would be to say that between slow extent drop over the last few days, and 2012's June ice collapse, 2016 is now "only" a 1 week plateau ahead of 2012 levels.  (Not that I'd predict that it will plateau, or even continue with the current slow extent drop, however).

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2486 on: June 04, 2016, 08:02:19 PM »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2487 on: June 05, 2016, 12:33:30 AM »
If you want to split hairs and look a one day 'plateaus'  ::)that's fine (even though it is now highly likely at least most of the gap to 2012 will be bridged over the next week or so).

My focus was more on what is predicted 50 days hence, which is frightening enough (especially given the conservative bent of Andrew's predictions so far this season)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2488 on: June 05, 2016, 12:54:05 AM »
Looking at the regional extent charts, 2012 should catch up about 500k on 2016 in the coming week, out of the ~1000k lead. Barents and Bering are the contributors, simply because 2016 is almost at zero already.
I'll go out on a limb here and also predict that 2016 will still be about 400k-500k ahead of 2012 extent-wise at the end of June even if it brings no further surprises:
Of the areas crashing during June (Baffin, Kara, Hudson) it seems 2016 and 2012 are more or less on the same path. Hudson is actually the main unknown here.
Laptev, ESS, CAA and CAB do not start moving much until July.
Areas with significant lead this year including Beaufort, Chukchi and Greenland Sea should keep their lead in the coming weeks.

Note: not much science used, just chart eyeballing.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2489 on: June 05, 2016, 02:49:40 AM »
Laptev, ESS, CAA and CAB do not start moving much until July.

I've been wondering whether the high temperatures across the arctic and early melt elsewhere running up to this point might lead to an early start in one or more of these areas in 2016.  People have been flagging up the raised ground temperatures and deterioration of ice around the Lena river mouth in the Laptev region, but I'm also particularly thinking about the CAB and ESS, with their proximity to Beaufort and Chukchi (which have shown early melting this year).

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2490 on: June 05, 2016, 06:51:56 AM »
IJIS:

10,354,257 km2(June 4, 2016)
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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2491 on: June 05, 2016, 07:07:40 AM »
IJIS:

10,354,257 km2(June 4, 2016)

An increase? Even that it is just around 3,500 km2, I was not expecting it!  :o
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2492 on: June 05, 2016, 07:16:46 AM »
IJIS:

10,354,257 km2(June 4, 2016)

An increase? Even that it is just around 3,500 km2, I was not expecting it!  :o

I'm not surprised.  Ice is breaking up and the wind is spreading it out every which way. 

You need to think a little about what's being considered "extent" here.  For example....

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2493 on: June 05, 2016, 07:45:13 AM »
Extent increasing and area in free fall is never a good sign...

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2494 on: June 05, 2016, 07:55:14 AM »
Thank you for clarifying that, jdallen.  The stalling in extent suddenly looks a lot more ominous, now that I realize it means a lot of crumbled ice is sitting in water soaking up unusual amounts of sunlight while area is dropping at the same time. 

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2495 on: June 05, 2016, 10:01:15 AM »
05/28 10577431 drop 53745
05/29 10524842 drop 52589
05/30 10480690 drop 44152
05/31 10427044 drop 53646
06/01 10405086 drop 21958
06/02 10374337 drop 30749
06/03 10350720 drop 23617
06/04 10354257 incr +3537

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2496 on: June 05, 2016, 10:27:55 AM »
Extent increasing and area in free fall is never a good sign...
...is this a relatively confirmed observation?
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2497 on: June 05, 2016, 10:51:34 AM »
jdallen is right.  You suddenly get large drops in extent.  It happened just before the June cliff in 2012.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2498 on: June 05, 2016, 11:39:56 AM »
...is this a relatively confirmed observation?

Yes, it means compactness goes down, which means there is open water between floes, or on floes (melt ponds). Compactness is calculated by dividing sea ice area numbers by sea ice extent numbers. The open water is counted for area, but not for extent, and so as area drops faster than extent, the compactness percentage goes down.

This means albedo is lowered, and melting momentum is increased. This momentum can cause a stable decrease during July and August even if weather conditions aren't conducive to melting. 2012 was a prime example of this. You can read the blog posts during the 2012 melting season on the ASIB, if you're interested in the details (for instance, here or here when I started noticing this phenomenon, only realizing later that it had to do with preconditioning during May and June, not with low thickness per se).
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2499 on: June 05, 2016, 12:48:54 PM »
Thank you for clarifying that, jdallen.  The stalling in extent suddenly looks a lot more ominous, now that I realize it means a lot of crumbled ice is sitting in water soaking up unusual amounts of sunlight while area is dropping at the same time.

Pity...