IJIS

[Juan C. García]

Thank you Espen!
Today 2016 drop only  49,727 km², while on 2007 the drop was 60,051 km².
Now 2016 is  218,063 km² above 2007.

[Espen]

IJIS:

 5,581,092 km²（August 10, 2016）down 75,087 km² from previous.

[Sleepy]

Sunday's target.

[Juan C. García]

Date              2007             2016        Drop          Drop       Difference
                                                           2007        2016       (2016)-(2007)
Aug-06    5,674,446     5,868,941     103,106     93,189     194,495
Aug-07    5,589,829     5,784,785      84,617      84,156     194,956
Aug-08    5,498,167     5,705,906      91,662      78,879     207,739
Aug-09    5,438,116     5,656,179      60,051      49,727     218,063
Aug-10    5,384,152     5,581,092      53,964      75,087     196,940

Almost back to the difference between 2016 and 2007, that we have on August 6 and 7!

I still believe that 2016 can be lower than 2007 by the end of August. On the other hand, I see 2012 unreachable.

[Sleepy]

Animation from Slaters 925mb temps comparing 2007/2011/2015 and now.

[abbottisgone]

It's a graph made by Sam Lillo to depict the speed of the current phase change in the QBO.

And for the extent, here are the drops needed for the next six days;
 -21487/day to reach 2015,
 -56496/day to reach 2011,
 -86961/day to reach 2007,
-175848/day to reach 2012.

Cheers!

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,493,832 km²（August 11, 2016）down 87,260 km² from previous.

[Sleepy]

Average for the last three days just below 71k, still right in the middle of 2007 & 2011.

Edit; just to be clear, referring to this:

And for the extent, here are the drops needed for the next six days;
 -21487/day to reach 2015,
 -56496/day to reach 2011,
 -86961/day to reach 2007,
-175848/day to reach 2012.

[Juan C. García]

The gap between 2016 and 2007 is smaller now...

Date               2007         2016       Drop 2007   Drop 2016    Difference
                                                                                           (2016)-(2007)
Aug-06    5,674,446     5,868,941   103,106     93,189        194,495
Aug-07    5,589,829     5,784,785     84,617     84,156        194,956
Aug-08    5,498,167     5,705,906     91,662     78,879        207,739
Aug-09    5,438,116     5,656,179     60,051     49,727        218,063
Aug-10    5,384,152     5,581,092     53,964     75,087        196,940
Aug-11    5,317,916     5,493,832     66,236     87,260        175,916

[Sleepy]

This is what 2011 did on the following three days:
20110811-20110812 83553
20110812-20110813 140804
20110813-20110814 76905

On average ~100421k/day

Edit; forgot to add this OT animation of ECMWF's forecast for 850mb temps and 500mb geopot. The final battle for this season?

[Jim Pettit]

By this time of the year, it's very difficult for IJIS extent to produce a century break. In fact, over the past ten years, there have only been five CBs between August 10 and the end of February--all of them in August, and two of those just last year.

[Sleepy]

The ECMWF forecast made on Thursday 12:00 (pic1) and Friday 12:00 (pic2) for Tuesday next week.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,420,490 km²（August 12, 2016）down 73,342 km² from previous.

[Acts5v29]

By this time of the year, it's very difficult for IJIS extent to produce a century break. In fact, over the past ten years, there have only been five CBs between August 10 and the end of February--all of them in August, and two of those just last year.

I understand the statistics, but are not the underlying dynamics rather different this year?  Do you think someone could combine Espen's daily informative and welcome readings with projections which reflect those dynamics?

[Paddy]

The dynamics are a bit different every year.  But you need really unprecedented events and situations to justify unprecedented forecasts.  Not convinced that's what we have here.

[Sleepy]

To equal 2011, the 14:th of August will need to drop 16784.
To equal 2007, the 14:th of August will need to drop 199572.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,383,713 km²（August 13, 2016）down 36,777 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,334,488 km²（August 14, 2016）down 49,225 km² from previous.

[Sleepy]

To equal 2011, the 14:th of August will need to drop 16784.
To equal 2007, the 14:th of August will need to drop 199572.

2016 ended up 32441 behind 2011 on the 14:th.

[gregcharles]

Just to clarify, "behind" in Sleepy's post means below. 2016 is still in 3rd place, and has now beaten the minimums of every year through 2004, plus 2006.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,283,078 km²（August 15, 2016）down 51,410 km² from previous.

[Juan C. García]

By the tendency that 2016 has now, it is competing to be one of the lowest 5 years, with 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Seems that 2016 will not beat 2012, but it can be lower than the other 3 years.
At this time, it is just ~20k km2 under 2011. At the same time, slowly is getting closer to 2007.

Date                2007          2016    Drop 2007   Drop 2016   Difference
                                                                                            (2016)-(2007)
Aug-10    5,384,152     5,581,092     53,964     75,087     196,940
Aug-11    5,317,916     5,493,832     66,236     87,260     175,916
Aug-12    5,270,988     5,420,490     46,928     73,342     149,502
Aug-13    5,216,039     5,383,713     54,949     36,777     167,674
Aug-14    5,184,141     5,334,488     31,898     49,225     150,347
Aug-15    5,147,991     5,283,078     36,150     51,410     135,087

[Shared Humanity]

I believe we will see some massive drops in extent over the next week.

GAC Redo

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,173,737 km²（August 16, 2016）down 109,341 km² from previous.

[mmghosh]

Any previous instances of 15th August -  melting minimum century drops on IJIS?  Or is this a first?  It is the final month...or used to be. 

[Juan C. García]

An important drop on IJIS. The cyclone is doing the expected damage.
Now, it is ~110k km² under 2011. At the same time, it is 86.7k km² above 2007. Getting closer to become second lowest on record!

Date             2007         2016         Drop 2007 Drop 2016    Difference
                                                                                          (2016)-(2007)
Aug-10    5,384,152     5,581,092     53,964     75,087     196,940
Aug-11    5,317,916     5,493,832     66,236     87,260     175,916
Aug-12    5,270,988     5,420,490     46,928     73,342     149,502
Aug-13    5,216,039     5,383,713     54,949     36,777     167,674
Aug-14    5,184,141     5,334,488     31,898     49,225     150,347
Aug-15    5,147,991     5,283,078     36,150     51,410     135,087
Aug-16    5,087,023     5,173,737     60,968    109,341      86,714

[Tigertown]

I think its just a matter of when not if as to  going sub 4M km². Its going to get closer than many think to the record, though probably not to break it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Any previous instances of 15th August -  melting minimum century drops on IJIS?  Or is this a first?  It is the final month...or used to be.

For the 2nd half of August, this is the 4th largest drop on record and the largest for the 16th.

Last year saw drops of 137.5k and 128.5k on the 26th and 27th, while 2008 had a drop of 114.9k on the 25th.

[Jim Pettit]

Any previous instances of 15th August -  melting minimum century drops on IJIS?  Or is this a first?

For the 2nd half of August, this is the 4th largest drop on record and the largest for the 16th.

True. As I wrote here a few weeks ago, it's a rarity indeed, being only the fifth IJIS century break of the last dozen years recorded from the 2nd half of August through the first week of March.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,100,364 km²（August 17, 2016）down 73,373 km² from previous.

[Juan C. García]

Today's drop of 73.4k km² is big, but not as big as yesterday's drop of 109.3k km².

Anyway, 2016 is getting closer to 2007. On August 18-19, the 2007 drops were small, so I forecast that 2016 will get closer to 2007. Later, on August 20-22, the 2007 drops were kind on big. So maybe, 2016 will be lower than 2007 until August 23-25.

Of course, this is assuming that the cyclone will not do huge damage on this days!

Date              2007           2016          Drop 2007        Drop 2016       Difference
                                                                                                       (2016)-(2007)
Aug-15     5,147,991    5,283,078         36,150           51,410            135,087
Aug-16     5,087,023    5,173,737         60,968         109,341              86,714
Aug-17     5,029,583    5,100,364         57,440           73,373              70,781
Aug-18     4,994,945                             34,638       
Aug-19     4,948,303                             46,642       
Aug-20     4,877,731                             70,572       
Aug-21     4,805,567                             72,164   
Aug-22     4,739,018                             66,549   
Aug-23     4,701,197                             37,821   
Aug-24     4,666,029                             35,168   
Aug-25     4,646,621                             19,408   

[budmantis]

Juan:

It looks like the next two days should bring us closer to 2007. According to your table they show a drop of only 81,000km2. Thanks for providing the data!

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,015,729 km²（August 18, 2016）down 84,635 km² from previous.

[Juan C. García]

Thanks Espen!

A big drop of 84.6k km2. The cyclone is helping the ice melt!
Maybe tomorrow, 2016 will be below 2007!

Date              2007           2016          Drop 2007        Drop 2016       Difference
                                                                                                       (2016)-(2007)
Aug-15     5,147,991    5,283,078         36,150           51,410            135,087
Aug-16     5,087,023    5,173,737         60,968         109,341              86,714
Aug-17     5,029,583    5,100,364         57,440           73,373              70,781
Aug-18     4,994,945    5,015,729         34,638           84,635              20,784        
Aug-19     4,948,303                             46,642       
Aug-20     4,877,731                             70,572       
Aug-21     4,805,567                             72,164   
Aug-22     4,739,018                             66,549   
Aug-23     4,701,197                             37,821   
Aug-24     4,666,029                             35,168   
Aug-25     4,646,621                             19,408   

Edit: Tomorrow, a drop of 67,427 km2 or more, will put 2016 below 2007.

[abbottisgone]

Thanks for providing all these figures, Juan!

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS extent now below 2009.

[Juan C. García]

Great graph, BFTV!
Well, Today's drop was low: 44.85k km². 2016 is still above 2007, by 22,586 km².
Would 2016 become the new second lowest?  Could be possible to beat 2012?

Let’s analyze the numbers:

• On the period August 1-15, the 2007 average drop was 73.9k km², versus a greater drop of 2016: 74.2k km².
• The 2016 Arctic cyclone helped on the period August 15-19, on four days 2016 had an average drop of 78k km², versus the 49.9 average drop of 2007.
• The next 3 days, 2007 had a big average drop: 69.8k km². 2016 will need an average drop of 77.3k km², in order to end even with 2007.
• The average Aug 22-31 2007 drop was only 36.1k km². I would say that this is the time when 2016 can start to have the lead, especially because the cyclone will still be there.
• On September, the minimum 2007 value was reached until the 17th. But the average drop is only 20.5k km².

Date       Days        2007              2016       2007 avg drop      2016 avg drop
Aug-01              6,182,432       6,321,835       
Aug-15    14      5,147,991       5,283,078         73.9                     74.2
Aug-19      4      4,948,303       4,970,889         49.9                     78.0
Aug-22      3      4,739,018                                69.8    
Aug-31      9      4,413,960                                36.1
Sep-17    17      4,065,739                                20.5

Let's assume that the 2016 minimum will be reached on September 12:

• To get even with 2007, the 2016 average drop should be 37.7k km².
• To reach the "less than 4 million km²" mark, the 2016 average drop should be 40.5k km².
• On the other hand, to reach 2012, the 2016 average drop should be 74.7k km².

Of course, I don't believe that 2016 will become the first on record, but I think it could be the second! 

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,970,889 km²（August 19, 2016）down 44,840 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,922,931 km²（August 20, 2016）down 47,958 km² from previous.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 38.8k off the 2014 minimum, with 2013 a further 75k away.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,894,486 km²（August 21, 2016）down 28,445 km² from previous.

[Juan C. García]

Three continuous low drops: 44,840 km², 47,958 km² and 28,445 km².
By Tuesday the cyclone will intensify, but seems that it is not going to be as low and as long as expected. Even though, it is going to be at Laptev and East Siberian Sea, a place where there is ice to melt. Let's wait a couple of days...

[seaicesailor]

Three continuous low drops: 44,840 km², 47,958 km² and 28,445 km².
By Tuesday the cyclone will intensify, but seems that it is not going to be as low and as long as expected. Even though, it is going to be at Laptev and East Siberian Sea, a place where there is ice to melt. Let's wait a couple of days...

The peripheral location where the low is predicted to stay, weaker or not, looks bad. Not to expect something sudden, but a follow up of faster drops is certain imho.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,862,998 km²（August 22, 2016）down 31,488 km² from previous.

[Tigertown]

Well, it's about that time. So much dispersion today, it would not surprise me if SIE goes up.
Looks like a lot more of those mongoloid(or whatever seaicesailor called them  ) blocks breaking loose and headed to the Fram. They are as good as gone but may make for deceptive numbers as they spread out along with the other mush that's moving south.

P.S. Obviously started this post while Espen was typing, and see that it did not go up, but for the same reasons barely dropped.

[mmghosh]

Don't know about barely dropped.   IJIS is below 2014 and should drop below 2013 well before August is over.

[Nick_Naylor]

Looking at prior 2000+ years when we've seen similar "pauses" in the last week of August, they were followed by subsequent drops of 393,199 km^2 on average to minimum. Then again, this year looks nothing like any of the others . . .

AVG    393,199
MIN    161,695
MAX    580,882

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,811,887 km²（August 23, 2016）down 51,111 km² from previous.

[Darvince]

Here we go again!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 2.6k left to drop below the 2013 min. After that, it's a further 187k to the 2010 min.