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mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3800 on: January 23, 2017, 05:13:36 AM »
I especially like how 2017 is mirroring 2012 in JAXA numbers (OK, mirroring is OTT, but still ;))

Spreading of the ice in Jan Feb, just in pole position for April May.  The 5-year JAXA cycle rules!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3801 on: January 23, 2017, 05:19:49 AM »
IJIS:

13,002,764 km2(January 22, 2017)up 28,734 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3802 on: January 24, 2017, 03:58:00 PM »
Up another 70 or 80k today by looks of numbers.


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3803 on: January 24, 2017, 07:25:02 PM »
IJIS:

13,081,165 km2
(January 23, 2017)up 78,401 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3804 on: January 25, 2017, 02:46:51 AM »
Good possibility of going to 4th lowest.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3805 on: January 25, 2017, 03:23:26 AM »
Good possibility of going to 4th lowest.
Probably will.  Won't reduce my concern.
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DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3806 on: January 25, 2017, 03:28:19 AM »
What is the extent excluding Bering and Okhotsk??

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3807 on: January 25, 2017, 04:14:07 AM »
 Almost all the recent  extent increase has occurred in Bering and Okhotsk.

You can see for yourself here for extent
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png.
and here for area
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png

Extent is up about 600K in these two seas in the past  week or so.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3808 on: January 25, 2017, 04:30:27 AM »
Thanks for the reminder David. And thanks for the reply...t

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3809 on: January 25, 2017, 05:20:17 AM »
IJIS:

13,172,031 km2(January 24, 2017)up 90,866  km2 from previous and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3810 on: January 25, 2017, 07:14:09 AM »
Bear in mind extent variability around the max is mostly in the periphery: Bering, Okhotsk, Barents and Baffin, each having a ~500k difference between min and max years, thus making extent records somewhat arbitrary and increasing the importance of other metrics  such as PIOMAS and SMOS thickness.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3811 on: January 25, 2017, 02:35:41 PM »
In the next few days there's space for some further upside in the okhotsk and bering area, and barents as well starting from tomorrow. In one week time, though, major changes in the synoptic configuration could bring warmer air to the pacific side and barents as well, with the polar vortex more active on canada-newfoundland: a configuration which is especially negative for ice extension.

I agree that volumes and thickness are more important now than extension, which provide limited information on the overall condition of arctic ice.

In particular, it is interesting to note that so far winter has been warmer than usual on Hudson and Newfoundland, and colder than one year ago on CAA and Beaufort, when the gyre was very active.
Distribution of ice shows thicker ice in CAA, CAB and part of Beaufort and ESS, and thinner in Chuckchi. Thinner ice on Hudson as well. Overall, apparently, a more favourable distribution of ice thickness compared to one year ago, even though transport from the Fram seems to be much more relevant this year.

As usual, only time will tell.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3812 on: January 26, 2017, 05:09:28 AM »
IJIS:

13,216,098 km2(January 25, 2017)up 44,067 km2 from previous and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3813 on: January 27, 2017, 05:12:03 AM »
IJIS:

13,138,957 km2(January 26, 2017)down 77,141 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3814 on: January 27, 2017, 01:41:40 PM »
Looks like our Arctic storm has run out of steam which was driving dispersion and growth in extent. Would not be surprised if we see extent growth flatten for quite some time or decline a bit. The warm air intrusion on the Pacific side certainly won't help the ice that has dispersed into and/or recently froze in the Bering.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 11:03:35 PM by Shared Humanity »

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3815 on: January 27, 2017, 02:01:27 PM »
Looks like our Arctic storm has run out of steam which was driving dispersion and growth in extent. Would not be surprised if we extent growth flatten for quite some time or decline a bit. The warm air intrusion on the Pacific side certainly won't help the ice that has dispersed into and/or recently froze in the Bering.

my hope to see some admitting kind of comments from a few guys that jumped on every 2-4 days increase bandwagon on the past is probably in vain but all the good and valid arguments of those who look a bit deeper than just on an extent curve prevailed once more. next stall is fact and was as predictable as is the next climb which inevitably will cause the next round of discussion we have had the doubtful pleasure to witness each time that single curve went up more than 1 day in a row (sarcasm)

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3816 on: January 27, 2017, 03:13:54 PM »
Quote
Looks like our Arctic storm has run out of steam which was driving dispersion and growth in extent. Would not be surprised if we extent growth flatten for quite some time or decline a bit. The warm air intrusion on the Pacific side certainly won't help the ice that has dispersed into and/or recently froze in the Bering.

Still going with my prediction of a max sometime between the 2nd week and 3rd wee of February.  The actual max really doesn't matter much though....as the time between the first of February and middle of March will most likely be PRETTY FLATISH....
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charles_oil

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3817 on: January 27, 2017, 03:17:25 PM »
That 3rd wee is pretty early in Feb I hope ??

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3818 on: January 27, 2017, 03:38:15 PM »
Quote
That 3rd wee is pretty early in Feb I hope ??

It is.  But it is just a reflection of the world/Arctic we are moving towards.  In my mind...the actual date doesn't make a LOT of difference....because it will be pretty flat from the middle of February to the middle of March anyway.

But yes....it IS an "early guess"  or SWAG (Simple Wild Assed Guess).
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3819 on: January 27, 2017, 06:11:23 PM »
When did ice reach its highest extent last year?
Feel The Burn!

dnem

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3820 on: January 27, 2017, 06:22:56 PM »
13,958,832 km2 Feb 29, 2016

everything you need right here:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3821 on: January 27, 2017, 10:42:34 PM »
When did ice reach its highest extent last year?

On February 29th. That won't happen again this year.  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3822 on: January 27, 2017, 11:02:38 PM »
When did ice reach its highest extent last year?

On February 29th. That won't happen again this year.  ;)

I agree.  8)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3823 on: January 27, 2017, 11:33:54 PM »
When did ice reach its highest extent last year?

On February 29th. That won't happen again this year.  ;)

I agree.  8)
One could argue that February 29 is the last day of February and that all "the last day of February"s are equal.  One could also argue that February 29 is the 60th day of the year and that all "the 60th day of the year"s are equal.  Thus argued, there may be two chances out of <whatever> that the maximum extent will happen again (to match 2016). ::)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3824 on: January 27, 2017, 11:42:19 PM »
When did ice reach its highest extent last year?

On February 29th. That won't happen again this year.  ;)

I agree.  8)
One could argue that February 29 is the last day of February and that all "the last day of February"s are equal.  One could also argue that February 29 is the 60th day of the year and that all "the 60th day of the year"s are equal.  Thus argued, there may be two chances out of <whatever> that the maximum extent will happen again (to match 2016). ::)

Damn Engineers...... >:(

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3825 on: January 28, 2017, 12:07:19 AM »
Isnt March 9th the date this year of 13.91max?

When will ice free Summer happen?

Some journals suggest Northern Blocking with all this melt and destabilized jet.

Does anyone know or are we all surmising?

I know I am.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3826 on: January 28, 2017, 12:14:28 AM »
Only time will tell? :D
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3827 on: January 28, 2017, 09:17:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,077,599 km2(January 27, 2017)down 61,358 km2 from previous and lowest  (again) measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3828 on: January 29, 2017, 02:00:33 AM »
@ Espen

I know this is probably OT, but some time ago you made a passing reference on this thread to the predicament of polar bears on Svalbard. You may (or may not) have seen this article from December 2015, which states that the sub-population there was in pretty good shape...
http://www.npolar.no/en/news/2015/12-23-counting-of-polar-bears-in-svalbard.html

Unfortunately, winter 2016/17 hasn't been doing any favours for those members of the Ursus maritimus species stuck on Svalbard since early in last year's melt season. It will be "interesting" to see the next update on their status.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3829 on: January 29, 2017, 10:15:10 AM »
IJIS:

13,103,750 km2(January 28, 2017)up 26,151 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3830 on: January 30, 2017, 05:24:08 AM »
IJIS:

13,123,492 km2(January 29, 2017)up 19,742 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 09:53:52 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3831 on: January 30, 2017, 01:52:18 PM »
Very unfavourable synoptic conditions for arctic ice in the next 1-2 weeks due to a major split of the PV and inflow of warm air from both Pacific and Atlantic. Warmer on Okhotsk as well. I expect a  reduction in ice extension over the next 7-10 days.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3832 on: January 30, 2017, 11:48:04 PM »
Just to be clear, do you think there will be a drop sometime in the next 7-10 days, or that the total extent figure 7-10 days from now will be lower than it is today?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3833 on: January 31, 2017, 05:22:56 AM »
IJIS:

13,181,000 km2(January 30, 2017)57,508 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3834 on: January 31, 2017, 11:45:24 AM »
Just to be clear, do you think there will be a drop sometime in the next 7-10 days, or that the total extent figure 7-10 days from now will be lower than it is today?


Hi Greg, it's just an educated guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a total extent figure lower than the actual, in 10 days' time. The split of PV is really massive and, if on the one hand very cold air will be moving to Canada, the USA, Russia and Europe, on the other hand very big areas of the Arctic will be affected by warm air advection from Atlantic and Pacific side.

In particular, southerly winds will be blowing over Barents for quite a few days, at least 7 days starting from tomorrow, due to the concurrent action of a very active LP in northern Atlantic, and the opposition of a Scand+ high pressure system. The ice recently formed in Barents will be easily compacted and moved northwards with significant extent reduction in that area.

Also Bering will be heavily hit by an advection of warm Pacific air due to a strong HP system in Alaska, even though temperatures will not be exteremely high due to thermal inversion. And Okhotsk will not be any better, due to the action of LP systems bringing warmer air, winds and rough sea conditions.

The only sectors which will remain cold are the CAA, which has been rather cold for quite some time so far, and the coast of Newfoundland and Davis Streit, but I can't see how this could reasonably offset the massive atlantic advection over Barents and the growth slow-down in the other sectors.


Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3835 on: January 31, 2017, 01:28:42 PM »
Some of the extent growth right now is from the already damaged ice being pushed into the Barents. Whether the movement of the ice causes the warm water under the ice to up-well or not is the question. It may be there a few days if not, but should only last until something disturbs the water. Not talking about that closer to Svalbard; it won't last long.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3836 on: January 31, 2017, 03:00:57 PM »
Just to be clear, do you think there will be a drop sometime in the next 7-10 days, or that the total extent figure 7-10 days from now will be lower than it is today?


Hi Greg, it's just an educated guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a total extent figure lower than the actual, in 10 days' time. The split of PV is really massive and, if on the one hand very cold air will be moving to Canada, the USA, Russia and Europe, on the other hand very big areas of the Arctic will be affected by warm air advection from Atlantic and Pacific side.

In particular, southerly winds will be blowing over Barents for quite a few days, at least 7 days starting from tomorrow, due to the concurrent action of a very active LP in northern Atlantic, and the opposition of a Scand+ high pressure system. The ice recently formed in Barents will be easily compacted and moved northwards with significant extent reduction in that area.

Also Bering will be heavily hit by an advection of warm Pacific air due to a strong HP system in Alaska, even though temperatures will not be exteremely high due to thermal inversion. And Okhotsk will not be any better, due to the action of LP systems bringing warmer air, winds and rough sea conditions.

The only sectors which will remain cold are the CAA, which has been rather cold for quite some time so far, and the coast of Newfoundland and Davis Streit, but I can't see how this could reasonably offset the massive atlantic advection over Barents and the growth slow-down in the other sectors.

This may be hinting to a very early maximum here,..., and I would not be surprised. Just watched the cci-reanalyzer maps and do look scary.
Will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3837 on: January 31, 2017, 05:19:01 PM »
And whether an early or late max, the very labored, difficult growth of ice suggests an exciting melt season as this late growth will be generally vulnerable.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3838 on: January 31, 2017, 05:55:03 PM »
Because of the measuring of extent we may see 'false growth' as the pack breaks up and spreads out into open water areas ( prior to it melting out) so we could see an early Max being cancelled later in March as the ice floats apart?
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3839 on: January 31, 2017, 06:04:47 PM »
Because of the measuring of extent we may see 'false growth' as the pack breaks up and spreads out into open water areas ( prior to it melting out) so we could see an early Max being cancelled later in March as the ice floats apart?
Quite likely, so I'm doubtful as yet that we will see *this* early a max. I agree with Cato that the coming damage will be quite severe and volume growth suppressed at a bad time; especially in context with the season so far when we desperately need it.
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3840 on: January 31, 2017, 06:07:52 PM »
Because of the measuring of extent we may see 'false growth' as the pack breaks up and spreads out into open water areas ( prior to it melting out) so we could see an early Max being cancelled later in March as the ice floats apart?

you are right while in the mean time it has been mostly understood that this is the reason why extent is loosing significance/relevance, the more fractured the ice becomes over time, especially now that it's even in winter not solid anymore.

once upon a time when the ice was in large parts a homogeneous surface, this was not the case while nowadays we often see extent with a 15-20% coverage and this over large areas, hence providing false impressions and ultimately leading to "he giveth and he took it" events, meaning ups and downs in short order.

anyways good that you mention it, it helps the changes to sink in so that everyone can switch to more relevant data sets.

perhaps a bit kidding here but i don't think that it makes much sense to find the perfect measurement method and algorithm for thickness and volume because until that perfect methods will be found there will be ZERO ice which is very easy to measure in thickness and volume. haha.... :D :D :D :D
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 06:28:02 PM by magnamentis »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3841 on: February 01, 2017, 05:23:44 AM »
IJIS:

13,216,664 km2(January 31, 2017)up 35,664 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3842 on: February 02, 2017, 05:31:03 AM »
IJIS:

13,305,056 km2(February 1, 2017)up 88,392 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3843 on: February 03, 2017, 05:30:45 AM »
IJIS:

13,370,485 km2(February 2, 2017)up 65,429 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date. 
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3844 on: February 04, 2017, 10:01:49 AM »
IJIS:

13,365,643 km2(February 3, 2017)down 4,842 km2 from previous and lowest (again) measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3845 on: February 05, 2017, 09:55:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,336,973 km2(February 4, 2017)down 28,670 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3846 on: February 05, 2017, 03:13:22 PM »
Espen....

I've done this before but would like to again thank you for your clear, simple and timely tracking of this measure.

With over 1 million views on this thread, I believe I am speaking for others. They're just too shy to say anything.   ;)

CognitiveBias

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3847 on: February 05, 2017, 06:12:24 PM »
Espen....

I've done this before but would like to again thank you for your clear, simple and timely tracking of this measure.

With over 1 million views on this thread, I believe I am speaking for others. They're just too shy to say anything.   ;)

Seconded.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3848 on: February 06, 2017, 05:24:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,323,424 km2(February 5, 2017)down 13,549 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3849 on: February 06, 2017, 05:34:48 AM »
The sentiment brought forward by Shared Humanity and seconded by Cognitive Bias, would no doubt pass by unanimous consent by all members of the Forum. Many "ice" days to you Espen!