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nowayout

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3850 on: February 06, 2017, 05:48:18 AM »
Espen....

I've done this before but would like to again thank you for your clear, simple and timely tracking of this measure.

With over 1 million views on this thread, I believe I am speaking for others. They're just too shy to say anything.   ;)

Yes, it is one of my first links I visit in the morning - every morning. Thank you.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3851 on: February 06, 2017, 10:58:00 AM »
Continuing the "thanks be to Espen" theme...

I've been stuffing these numbers into a spreadsheet for some time. Should I happen to be away for a few days, I find it much easier to flick through Espen's daily IJIS/JAXA/ADS images than it is to fart about with the .csv

Some psychologically interesting milestones using the IJIS/JAXA/ADS numbers will soon be upon us. Within the next week, the rolling 2-year average will go below 9.9 million sq kms. The lowest 2-year figure before now was 10.001 - this was basically 2011/2012. Prior to 2016/2017, the previous 1-year record was 9.915 million sq kms, which was clocked up in May 2013

In perhaps 10 days time, the rolling 5-year average will slide beneath 10.1 million sq kms. By comparison, prior to 2012, the record for a single 12-month period was 2011, which came in at 10.185 million sq kms.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3852 on: February 06, 2017, 01:11:14 PM »
This graph shows the IJIS figures so far this year as a standard deviation from the 2002-2016 mean. The red line shows the previous record standard deviation. As can be seen most of that record was set in 2016.   
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charles_oil

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3853 on: February 06, 2017, 02:37:37 PM »
Am I being dim - are the scales reversed on the graph? 

Surely we were 3 sd below the mean in January.

P.S. ... and also - my thanks too Espen - the thread is a handy clock to watch - happy millionth view too !

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3854 on: February 06, 2017, 09:05:11 PM »
Am I being dim - are the scales reversed on the graph? 
SD are normally quoted as positive values. I reversed the maximum values when I  added them in,  to separate them.  I  guess I  could have done it the other way.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3855 on: February 07, 2017, 05:24:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,347,490 km2(February 6, 2017)up 24,066 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3856 on: February 07, 2017, 03:08:58 PM »
Conditions favourable to compaction in Barents persisting until the end of this week, followed by general cooling. Increasingly colder on Chuckchi and Bering in the next few days, with associated ice extension increase. Very cold over CAA and Beaufort for the next few days.

In this period I'm more interested in the effect of synoptic conditions in terms of ice surface temperature, rather than ice extension. As we've seen from Neven's PIOMAS outlook, IMHO the biggest issue is not just with ice extension but rather with volumes which are really terrible. Cold conditions over the arctic are vital to accumulate some more reserves with a view to the incoming melting season, much more than a few kmq of more extension in peripheral areas which will melt down at the first ray of sun.

CognitiveBias

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3857 on: February 07, 2017, 04:16:26 PM »
Meanwhile warm air and moisture make their way from Svalbard to the pole...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/11/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-90.65,87.43,740/loc=58.743,88.935

One side or the other, or both,  seems to be constantly under attack.


budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3858 on: February 07, 2017, 06:58:34 PM »
For the moment, it has put a stop to Fram export.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3859 on: February 07, 2017, 07:11:45 PM »
For the moment, it has put a stop to Fram export.

[JK] now that the ice around the pose will melt "in situ" we don't need any further fram export [/JK]

just kidding LOL

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3860 on: February 08, 2017, 05:32:01 AM »
IJIS:

13,351,114 km2(February 7, 2017)up 3,624 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3861 on: February 08, 2017, 05:40:33 AM »
For the moment, it has put a stop to Fram export.

The wind blowing(against export) around the N.E corner of Greenland is at about 1oC and heavy with H2O vapor. The same kind of wind, except warmer has pushed the ice back in the Svalbard area, dropping the extent there.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 06:02:45 AM by Tigertown »

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3862 on: February 08, 2017, 05:48:16 AM »
For the moment, it has put a stop to Fram export.

The wind blowing(against export) around the N.E corner of Greenland is at about 1oC and heavy with H2O vapor. The same kind of wind, except warmer has pushed the ice back in the Svalbard area, dropping the extent there.

So no respite for the ice, too bad. I think Magnamentis was trying to make the same point a couple of posts back.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3863 on: February 09, 2017, 05:23:48 AM »
IJIS:

13,357,719 km2(February 8, 2017)up 6,605 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3864 on: February 10, 2017, 05:30:27 AM »
IJIS:

13,366,971 km2(February 9, 2017)up 9,252 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3865 on: February 11, 2017, 10:21:43 AM »
IJIS:

13,371,617 km2(February 10, 2017)up 4,646 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3866 on: February 11, 2017, 11:10:58 AM »
IJIS ANTARCTIC:

2,255,361 km2(February 10, 2017)the lowest ever measured, will IJIS pass the 2,000,000 km2 mark before the end of the melt season down below?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 03:10:48 PM by Espen »
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ra3000

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3867 on: February 11, 2017, 09:30:37 PM »
About Antarctica, let's hope it not.
Anyhow, 2.000.000 sq. Km it is just a number, a "psychological barrier". The fact is that this last year sea ice surrounding Antarctica has suffered. Despite the Global warming trend and the clear path in the Arctic it is "curious" those upsidedowns in Antarctica sea ice during these last years.
I do believe that sea and ocean currents are to blame, not sure though, but if they are changing the dynamic of the patterns in Barents (quite clear in the case of Svalbard) I think they are somehow doing the same with the sea ice around Antarctica, and probably some of their shelves too

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3868 on: February 11, 2017, 11:07:36 PM »
Antarctica is cooling quite fast now and both Vostok and Dome Fuji had below -50oC last night. Most of the remaining ice is solid except for a small area in the Amundsen Sea. If anything spectacular is going to happen with SIE numbers, then that ice pack needs to go away before refreezing really starts.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3869 on: February 12, 2017, 09:54:32 AM »
IJIS:

13,350,835 km2(February 11, 2017)down 20,782 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3870 on: February 12, 2017, 10:04:50 AM »
I know it's even earlier than it was in 2015, but possible maximum anyone?

bairgon

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3871 on: February 12, 2017, 10:10:19 AM »
It would certainly be worth keeping track of the current maximum level with each post.

For the record, this is 13,371,617km2 on Feb 10th.

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3872 on: February 12, 2017, 10:59:41 AM »
Never say never, but this is only the second downward trend this February we usually have a few more ups and downs before the maximum.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3873 on: February 12, 2017, 11:02:55 AM »
Very much doubt a minmaximum, too early, probability is against it and 21k is peanuts.

Edit reason: I'm an idiot  ::)
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 12:14:58 PM by oren »

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3874 on: February 12, 2017, 11:08:23 AM »
It certainly isn't a minimum!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3875 on: February 12, 2017, 11:26:07 AM »
Nope, no minimum, not even close to! The next couple of days we will likely see northerly winds through Svalbard/FJL and Berings Strait. This will most likely increase the SIE and push the ice edge further south.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3876 on: February 12, 2017, 11:37:17 AM »
Minimum? well we're in all kinds of trouble with the ice this year but a min this early can't be one of them!

The problem with low ice numbers is there is plenty of room for expansion even if ice growth has ended. I'm sure we could stop growing ice today yet still see 500,000 added to the pack over the next 4 weeks before the inevitable crash as the ice went below 15% on the peripheries!
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Eli81

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3877 on: February 12, 2017, 12:08:25 PM »
It looks like the ice really struggled to get anywhere during February of last year, just looking at the graph. Unless the current trend continues for the rest of the month, it seems probable that 2017 will lose the lowest spot - for a bit at least.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3878 on: February 12, 2017, 12:15:43 PM »
I know it's even earlier than it was in 2015, but possible maximum anyone?

Everything is possible, but I doubt it. It's going to get mighty cold on the Pacific side of the Arctic next week.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3879 on: February 12, 2017, 12:21:17 PM »
BTW, I just noticed on the ASIG front page that the JAXA SIE graph is no longer updated:



Does anyone know if there is a new version somewhere that I can link to?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3880 on: February 12, 2017, 12:34:43 PM »
Neven: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html

That's probably the old version which no longer is updated.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3881 on: February 12, 2017, 12:45:20 PM »
I can't (hot)link to that interactive graph, unfortunately.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3882 on: February 12, 2017, 06:30:21 PM »
I can't (hot)link to that interactive graph, unfortunately.

When i was in my let's-replicate-all-data-and-graphs-because-we-don't-yet-know-what-might-not-be-available-for-much-longer phase, I recreated that particular extent graph, and have maintained it since. Feel free to hot link, as it's updated every morning (ET):


Jim Williams

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3883 on: February 12, 2017, 06:33:24 PM »
I can't (hot)link to that interactive graph, unfortunately.

When i was in my let's-replicate-all-data-and-graphs-because-we-don't-yet-know-what-might-not-be-available-for-much-longer phase, I recreated that particular extent graph, and have maintained it since. Feel free to hot link, as it's updated every morning (ET):


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Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3884 on: February 12, 2017, 07:13:39 PM »
Thought I'd add this to the mix: when maxima/ums occurred since 2003, and the extent for each one. Plus the daily range for Feb-Mar and 2017.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3885 on: February 12, 2017, 07:15:55 PM »

When i was in my let's-replicate-all-data-and-graphs-because-we-don't-yet-know-what-might-not-be-available-for-much-longer phase, I recreated that particular extent graph, and have maintained it since. Feel free to hot link, as it's updated every morning (ET):

That's awesome, Jim, but could you perhaps put a big, fat JAXA somewhere?
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3886 on: February 12, 2017, 07:18:30 PM »
Thought I'd add this to the mix: when maxima/ums occurred since 2003, and the extent for each one. Plus the daily range for Feb-Mar and 2017.
Superb chart Deeenngee

cats

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3887 on: February 12, 2017, 07:25:42 PM »

Archimid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3888 on: February 12, 2017, 07:27:41 PM »
Thought I'd add this to the mix: when maxima/ums occurred since 2003, and the extent for each one. Plus the daily range for Feb-Mar and 2017.



Ahhh that sweet flavor of novelty.  Love the visualization Deeenngee. Thanks.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3889 on: February 12, 2017, 07:32:41 PM »
Jim and cats - as far as I know 2016 was 2nd lowest, ~tied with 2007. Yet one of these charts shows 2015 as 3rd lowest, and the other shows 2011. What am I missing?

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3890 on: February 12, 2017, 07:44:54 PM »
Looking at that really cool chart, lets hope for a late max.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3891 on: February 12, 2017, 07:55:42 PM »

When i was in my let's-replicate-all-data-and-graphs-because-we-don't-yet-know-what-might-not-be-available-for-much-longer phase, I recreated that particular extent graph, and have maintained it since. Feel free to hot link, as it's updated every morning (ET):

That's awesome, Jim, but could you perhaps put a big, fat JAXA somewhere?

Ask and ye shall receive:


Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3892 on: February 12, 2017, 07:57:39 PM »
Superb chart Deeenngee

Indeed. Good job.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3893 on: February 12, 2017, 08:00:27 PM »
Neven - there is also this - https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver2/data/SeaIceExtentGraph/graph/image/SIE_seasonal_n.png

Thanks, cats. But I prefer how the other one looks.

Ask and ye shall receive:

Thanks, Jim! That's fantastic!

edit: Added to the ASIG now, but I let the image direct to the ADS-NiPR site if that's okay with you, Jim.

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Ninebelowzero

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3894 on: February 12, 2017, 08:08:45 PM »
Ask and ye shall receive:


That's nice and clear but might need a further  explanatory note to readers of the Daily Mail that are coming here now.

Could you also do another graph with just the 4 dotted line average plots (including the rolling  average of the current decade and extend the y axis down to zero? Any time between now and September will do.  :)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3895 on: February 12, 2017, 08:24:37 PM »
Thanks, Jim! That's fantastic!

edit: Added to the ASIG now, but I let the image direct to the ADS-NiPR site if that's okay with you, Jim.

Not a problem. After all, it's their data. ;-)

Could you also do another graph with just the 4 dotted line average plots (including the rolling  average of the current decade and extend the y axis down to zero? Any time between now and September will do.  :)

Something like this? (You caught me on a rare between-paying-projects-deadlines day):

« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 08:30:23 PM by Jim Pettit »

Ninebelowzero

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3896 on: February 12, 2017, 08:53:00 PM »

Something like this?


Nearly there Jim. :)

Could you remove the 2017 plot. The several reasons for this would several. Firstly it's handy for people who don't have access to a colour printer. Secondly it provides absolute clarity about the trend itself  and finally it might help a little to stop people worrying about these figures on a daily basis.

It also takes quite a while for the unscientifically minded to process the volume of information this forum presents when first arriving here.  Some people (of whatever age) need a clear and basic explanation in the title of the graph.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 09:05:29 PM by Ninebelowzero »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3897 on: February 12, 2017, 11:29:08 PM »
Ask and ye shall receive:


That's nice and clear but might need a further  explanatory note to readers of the Daily Mail that are coming here now.

Could you also do another graph with just the 4 dotted line average plots (including the rolling  average of the current decade and extend the y axis down to zero? Any time between now and September will do.  :)

Could you also include some fairies dancing along the X axis?   ::)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3898 on: February 13, 2017, 03:16:21 AM »
Ask and ye shall receive:


That's nice and clear but might need a further  explanatory note to readers of the Daily Mail that are coming here now.

Could you also do another graph with just the 4 dotted line average plots (including the rolling  average of the current decade and extend the y axis down to zero? Any time between now and September will do.  :)

Could you also include some fairies dancing along the X axis?   ::)
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3899 on: February 13, 2017, 05:23:49 AM »
IJIS:

13,397,611 km2(February 12, 2017)up 46,776 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!